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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2100 on: June 19, 2019, 06:35:53 AM »

 Apologies to those concerned. That comment was out of hand, maybe I have been here too long watching our own destruction. I was here on the old forums and maybe I'm just burnt out by reading/looking at the same old, same old every summer for a years and years.

 Back to lurking...Out

I wasn't offended.  You raise a valid and important point that this happens each year and that we are still comparing apples to apples.   And yes I've been hear since the forum started, but sometimes I go a good while without saying much.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2101 on: June 19, 2019, 07:55:53 AM »
June 14-18.

2018.

Often Distant

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2102 on: June 19, 2019, 08:06:34 AM »
The Lena delta through June so far. The river meets the sea.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2103 on: June 19, 2019, 08:23:33 AM »
June 14-18.
CAB ice hurrying to the exits in Fram, Svalbard-FJL gap, and the Beaufort. While extent is currently growing in these regions, the rest of the season looks gloomy.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2104 on: June 19, 2019, 09:42:41 AM »
June 14-18.

2018.

Interesting developments around the perimeter. The crack along the CAB / CAA border seems to be the work of the wind and is an interesting example of how the whole pack can move as one.

I'm going to guess that when the low pressure departs the Beaufort and the gyre returns to it's normal spin, the crack will be filled back in.

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2105 on: June 19, 2019, 11:58:46 AM »
The dive in PIOMAS volume confirms that momentum has picked up. The models continue to forecast continued warm anomalies, with exceptional warmth over Laptev, while offering some protection to Lincoln and the northern CAA, Baffin as well as Kara. Warm air intrudes into Beaufort, however, for the first time in a while. Kara will melt out sooner or later anyway, so it's a question of how soon and how strongly the melt coming from the Pacific/Eastern Eurasia side can move towards the North Pole. This is in just 3 days' time:



Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2107 on: June 19, 2019, 12:50:30 PM »
Following the recent accusations directed at me, Neven suggested I state that I am concerned about AGW, do believe the ice is melting.  I believe that the IPCC reports are the best scientific assessment of what is likely to happen in the future.  I also accept that there are serious risks associated with climate change.  While I believe it is unlikely that impacts of climate change will be dramatically worse than what IPCC predict, I believe that the low possibility of such extreme aspects should be taken into consideration, and we should act strongly on climate change to reduce the risk of nasty surprises.

If some are surprised by the intensity of the reaction to my recent comment, my opinion is that the intensity was motivated by past arguments that I have pursued very strongly in the consequences section of this forum, especially around claims that IPCC is seriously understating the risks. 
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2108 on: June 19, 2019, 12:56:40 PM »
You beat me to it Often & Jay!

The collapsing sea ice off the Lena Delta:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-19
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 01:16:32 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2109 on: June 19, 2019, 01:11:44 PM »
Hi Jim .. looks like another wave of melt ponding too .. there seems to have been a lot of pond draining and refilling going on .. thank you , worldview and sentinel for the detail I am enjoying this season .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2110 on: June 19, 2019, 01:12:21 PM »
Meanwhile near Point Barrow:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2111 on: June 19, 2019, 01:55:29 PM »
Interesting developments around the perimeter. The crack along the CAB / CAA border seems to be the work of the wind and is an interesting example of how the whole pack can move as one.

I'm going to guess that when the low pressure departs the Beaufort and the gyre returns to it's normal spin, the crack will be filled back in.

That's how it's been, and that's how it will be...until suddenly it isn't.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2112 on: June 19, 2019, 02:01:09 PM »
Just a quick inventory of ocean surface temperatures.

The warmest water in the Arctic is between Alaska and Russia at 5-10C and it's impact is being felt in the melt moving from the Bering Strait toward the pole. This melt is well depicted in Wipneus' latest PIOMAS gif.

The collapse of the ice bridge at Barrow removes a barrier to this warmth moving along the Alaskan coast and joining warm water already there but in the Beaufort (<= 5C).

The same warm water is moving along the Russian coast toward the ESS.

With plenty of sunshine around the solstice the Beaufort sea should continue to warm up and make steady inroads pushing east. 

The Laptev open water also warm and the peristent strong southerly wind is pushing it toward the Central Arctic. The open water in the Laptev is poised to expand quickly in the coming weeks. The water warmth is slowly bleeding over to the ESS.

What the Atlantic Ocean has in mind for the summer is above my pay grade. She's been in the gym training under 415 ppm CO2 levels, so the potential seems there to do big things... but currents are complicated.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2113 on: June 19, 2019, 02:35:43 PM »

June 14-18.

2018.

Interesting developments around the perimeter. The crack along the CAB / CAA border seems to be the work of the wind and is an interesting example of how the whole pack can move as one.

I'm going to guess that when the low pressure departs the Beaufort and the gyre returns to it's normal spin, the crack will be filled back in.
That's my guess too.
But the whole pack never moves as one and is never really held by coasts eithet. Wind pull, ocean drag, and Coriolis dominate the movement locally, with the cohesive forces having a limited reach and range. That is why when the pack gets dispersed, it's difficult to find blocks beyond 100 km of span or diameter.

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2114 on: June 19, 2019, 03:03:16 PM »
Really? I am feeling the EC forecast has become pretty variable even at three or four day... maybe just a feeling. The overall picture, run to run, is quite turbulent.
Yes, I see your point. I should have used the word stationary (implying location) rather than stable (implying run to run forecast stability) in my post. Of course, the models will flip flop around at that time range. But I think the signal is strong enough to be worth watching.

Kate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2115 on: June 19, 2019, 03:10:55 PM »
Meanwhile near Point Barrow:
The grass is starting to turn green.
My ( twisted ) view of arctic warming is based on when the locals in Barrow will need to mow the lawn

Jmo

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2116 on: June 19, 2019, 03:27:37 PM »
Could be in Nares thread, but the blue, broken ice and open water in Nares this early is striking; even in comparison to 2012...
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kennedy/20190616TERR.jpg
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kennedy/20120618TERR.jpg

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2117 on: June 19, 2019, 03:33:13 PM »
Could be in Nares thread,

You betcha!  ;D

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2118 on: June 19, 2019, 03:47:42 PM »
I think it also belongs here. Nares has quite the influence this year, as it guts the thickest and oldest ice.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2119 on: June 19, 2019, 04:05:48 PM »
Following up on A-Team's tests here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2558.msg206386.html#msg206386 with a slightly different presentation of ascat overlaid with  smos at 35% transparency allowing some of the ascat features to show through.  The smos beige colour representing ice>50cm thick during winter has been set to fully transparent.
No scale as uni-bremen advise not to use it during summer. The colours may be an indication of moisture levels though.
Quote
In the melting season, the thickness of sea ice is highly variable and the emission properties in the microwave change due to the wetness of the surface and occurrence of melt ponds in the Arctic.
edit:mar21-jun18
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 04:12:59 PM by uniquorn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2120 on: June 19, 2019, 04:14:52 PM »
Well, that looks devastating! Don't show that anyone.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2121 on: June 19, 2019, 04:25:14 PM »
Well, that looks devastating! Don't show that anyone.



as I wrote on fb back in April .. Goodbye , goodbye .. wipe that last bit of ice from .. oh my ! .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2122 on: June 19, 2019, 04:33:31 PM »
~3 days ago, coords ~81.1, ~51.1: https://dmitry-v-ch-l.livejournal.com/262525.html. Counts as 100% extent eh.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2123 on: June 19, 2019, 05:32:07 PM »
Mercator sees a quick freshening in the 0m layer.

A question to the old timers here: Does this correlate with the melt we are seeing or is this indicating melt we don't see in the data (i.e. bottom melt)?

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2124 on: June 19, 2019, 06:35:43 PM »

The top layer of the Arctic Ocean freshens through the summer from input from the rivers and from melting ice. First year ice can be as high as 7 psu (practical salinity unit), but it's still much less saline than seawater.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2125 on: June 19, 2019, 06:43:50 PM »
Thanks, Rox for your answer. I do know about this process. My question was rather concerning the speed of the freshening. Is this a normal (as in 'in correlation with the extent data loss) or very rapid freshening (as in 'there must be bottom melt also').

Or perhaps my question is, does someone track this rate of freshening vs. extent data somewhere?

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2126 on: June 19, 2019, 06:56:57 PM »

I'm not sure about that, the same thought crossed my mind for the main part of the Arctic as i replied to your post. It's interesting that there is salinity changes where the Arctic is still 'white', though it is apparently wet. Maybe its where we are getting thaw-freeze, any surface melt penetrating into the ice and then refreezing, effectively 'warming' the core of the ice. If it refreezes at 0°C then it can presumably warm the base of the ice enough to melt, and lower the salinity of the seawater. Ideally we would have temperature monitoring through the ice to see when this change happens, but the salinity of the seawater may be a good proxy.


The river input is pretty much consistent year to year and I read that it contributes about 50% of the freshwater (sorry, I can't recall the reference).

For instance the Omolon Delta is one of the inputs into the ESS:

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2127 on: June 19, 2019, 07:11:07 PM »
~3 days ago, coords ~81.1, ~51.1: https://dmitry-v-ch-l.livejournal.com/262525.html. Counts as 100% extent eh.
Ugh.
This space for Rent.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2128 on: June 19, 2019, 07:15:07 PM »
comparing a similar image from mid june 2012, hence around the same time of the year, with the final outcome that same year 2012, shows a very close match  of the "beige" area with the final extent in september 2012

should the same apply for this year, means if only the beige remains and the remainder that is less than 50cm thick now, will melt out, we would be in for a nasty surprise.

as you all know my theory since long has been that one year we shall see a new record minimum simply due to the fact that there is almost only 1st year ice left that can melt out without special conditions happening. all it will take in such a case is a shift, meaning that a formerly stable part would melt out cause by a shift in regions with high melting, while the other regions would melt out normally due to last years late freeze and warm winter, means thin ice.

IMO this year has many of the ingredients needed for that, provided we won't see a weather related stall, due to extremely cold july and august temps where normal summer temps would finish the job.

it's a theory, no claims, just sayin'

let's see

PS: i don't say that the map represents thickness reliably, in fact it doesn't, i say that it did at the end of the melt season of 2012 compared to a similar map of mid june 2012, not 100% but very close.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 07:33:04 PM by magnamentis »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2129 on: June 19, 2019, 07:17:22 PM »
It's interesting that there is salinity changes where the Arctic is still 'white', though it is apparently wet

Exactly! The melt we are seeing is either melt ponds (in the satellite pics) but those are not (yet) freshening the water or the ice extent data going down. A lot of the later is caused by drift into warmer waters, which is also not of concern here.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2130 on: June 19, 2019, 08:21:53 PM »
This talk about some crack between the CAA and CAB is nonsense.

also any talk about the weather models being inconsistent it's ridiculous this is the most consistent the weather models get.

The run to run variability is very minimal so why say otherwise?


There is always people who say that I use hyperbole when describing the weather forecasts.   Yet the anomaly data/standard deviation from normal suggests that most of the weather we see on the warm side is pretty extreme.

Yeah I can be flamboyant like with excitement not I'm also pretty drab sbout the reality of it on the flip side.

My point is there is so much subtle extremism here about blue ocean events or some other long-term climate normal being completely ended by global warming and now or in a new normal.  it actually seems like these posts are actually not as bad as they were a few years ago.  Which is good because that kind of stuff makes this place look like a joke. 

Anyways the models are in amazing agreement.

Day 4 and day 7 comparison of the OP runs:


How can anyone cover say the models are not incredibly consistent.


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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2131 on: June 19, 2019, 08:40:02 PM »
BBR is right about next weeks potential.

Not to take away from right now onwards since some extreme heat is moving through the laptev and ess into the Chuchki and NW Central Arctic Basin.

Which is reinforced in a couple days but then after day 4 the next push is GARGANTUAN!!!!

This is just a snapshot the heat by day 4 is already expansive.

This would be one of the largest heat waves in modern Arctic history.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2132 on: June 19, 2019, 08:46:39 PM »
This is from Ostrov, Russia. 

A little port on some Islands between the Laptev and ESS.

From 12z today.

So 20 KT sustained SSW winds with 12-13C surface winds and 9C dewpoints.

That's insane.

No coastal fronts holding that back.

Expect incredible melt ponding behind this warm front tracking the Pacific side.

I attached a Google map of where this sounding is from.
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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2133 on: June 19, 2019, 08:59:01 PM »
., Friv .. Kotelny was considerably warmer last week .. b.c. ..

  ps  .. of course that only emphasises how mad the weather is . I had been complaining Kotelny was warmer than Ireland ..

 pps .. warmest on the 12th ..
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 09:15:28 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2134 on: June 19, 2019, 09:09:35 PM »
Observed temperature for the last week.

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2135 on: June 19, 2019, 09:27:14 PM »
I agree with Friv that the models have been fairly consistent in terms of the pattern of having high pressure towards the Siberian side with lower pressure near Beaufort and the pole creating almost a reverse dipole type pattern but there are now hints high pressure could be even more extensive across larger areas of the Arctic but we shall see how it pans out first.

Interestingly, it is around this time of year where years such as 2012 and 2016 started to get holes right into the interior of the ice pack and as far as I can see on worldview that does not appear to be the case so far this year but still early days of course.

I also think its too simplistic in saying high pressure is bad for the ice and low pressure is good for the ice because as we see in years like 2010/2012/2013 and 2016, persistent cyclones most certainly show visable dispersion which makes the ice vulnable later on in the season. High pressure tends to compact the ice but usually makes extent go down faster as the ice at the lower latitudes melt quicker so I hope in a way this high pressure spell does occur and see what impacts it has for the ice.

Sarat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2136 on: June 19, 2019, 09:55:48 PM »
comparing a similar image from mid june 2012, hence around the same time of the year, with the final outcome that same year 2012, shows a very close match  of the "beige" area with the final extent in september 2012

One observation I would like to share (may not mean much):

I noticed how different the images look, sure there are a few more beige pixels in 2019, but look at the edges and color gradients of the ice. In 2019 ice looks more tattered gradients are messy, transitions between colors are not smooth. I cannot help but think that this is not good news for the ice, even vs 2012.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2137 on: June 19, 2019, 10:36:17 PM »
The previous low over Laptev/Barents area didn't do anything I can see in terms of dispersion etc .
 It still brought strong southerlies pushing ice edge back and importing warm air.  Forecast for next 4 hours includes a small but reasonably solid low pushing through close to the north pole.  My theory on 2012 is that a big part was early melt momentum followed by a short sharp low pressure system which dispersed lots of ice followed by further sunshine pouring heat into all the cracks.  Will be interesting to see if we get the same effect here, although the low weakens quickly as it crosses the Arctic so might only be limited dispersion between pole and Laptev.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2138 on: June 19, 2019, 10:43:03 PM »
insight as to why the NSIDC chart is flattening out as we approach solstice?

Quite a little cyclone this created! As others pointed out, the primary reason is clear in the data: dispersion. E.g. Look at Wipneus' regional extent charts for the Beaufort.





And what is the reason that Beaufort extent jumped quickly up? A storm dispersed ice from a compact region into open water --  see any of the several recently posted animations of the region. The end result of this dispersion will almost certainly not be less ice melt, but more.

I realize that all this has been pointed out previously, but I agree with TeaLight and just want to make sure that these obvious points have not been obscured successfully.

Don't hang your hat on extent values, especially short-term blips.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2139 on: June 19, 2019, 10:48:05 PM »
...12-13C surface winds and 9C dewpoints.


What does a 9C dewpoint mean, and why is it insane?

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2140 on: June 19, 2019, 11:01:42 PM »
A 9 C dewpoint means that a brick on the ground that is 47 degrees F will get wet from water condensing out from the humid air. Now imagine what that warm humid air blowing at sustained 23 miles per hour will do to ice.

Frivolous is right. These are crazy melt conditions on the Siberian side.

And all the heat over Siberia means that there will be a surge of warm river water onto the Siberian shelf. The fast ice will be gone fast.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2141 on: June 19, 2019, 11:10:23 PM »
Worldview, aqua modis, the caa-cab nonsense crack, jun1-18, ;)

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2142 on: June 19, 2019, 11:12:53 PM »
...12-13C surface winds and 9C dewpoints.


What does a 9C dewpoint mean, and why is it insane?

I'll take a stab at this, although there may be more to it, beyond my ken.

Dewpoint is one way of indicating humidity in the air. Below 9C, the water will condense out of the atmosphere and appear as fog/ice fog or some kind of precipitation. It may just condense on surfaces, such as grass, which is why it is called the dew point.

This is bad for (at least) two reasons:

The higher the humidity, the higher the specific heat, meaning that the air is more capable of transferring heat to the ice.

Secondly, and probably more significant, is the latent heat of vapourization. As the moist air encounters the ice boundary, (below 9C), it will condense. In the process it will give up a huge amount of heat, almost seven times as much heat per gram as the latent heat of fusion needed to melt ice.

If it falls as rain, it will also wipe out any snow on the ice surface that was insulating it from the sun, and make the surface easier to absorb sunlight.

That's all I got  :)

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2143 on: June 19, 2019, 11:16:52 PM »
So 20 KT sustained SSW winds with 12-13C surface winds and 9C dewpoints.

That's insane.

Another visualization of that plume of wet air here, along with additional (and even larger) forecast incursions:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.pwtr


RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2144 on: June 19, 2019, 11:18:49 PM »
Note that condensation of water releases a huge amount of latent heat, enough to melt 7x its mass of ice. Its the difference between 334 J/g and 2230 J/g. In context the heat capacity for water is 4.186 J/g°C.


bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2145 on: June 19, 2019, 11:34:55 PM »
The fire situation in Siberia is spiraling. Each day is getting worse. I don't see why it won't continue worsening for at least another week+ based on model output. That smoke is going to end up somewhere and if forecasts are accurate it will be continually transported north into the Arctic.

It looks like the clouds are swirling with smoke in NE Siberia now, as well, although it may also be from elsewhere -- not sure. In any case it looks like fires are now starting there, as those in North-Central Siberia (apologies for not using the RISK nomenclature) proliferate on winds or spontaneous formation / re-ignition (who is to say if winter puts out all the peat fires, may only need a few days of 90-100F temps to get things going again).

In fact, you can now see sporadic fires stretching to the edge of the EOSDIS polar view setting, basically stretching from Laptev's shoreline all the way to Okhotsk's.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2146 on: June 19, 2019, 11:39:54 PM »
The fire situation in Siberia is spiraling.

I don't mind the occasional Siberian fires update, but how does it compare to previous years?
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2147 on: June 19, 2019, 11:46:36 PM »
The fire situation in Siberia is spiraling.

I don't mind the occasional Siberian fires update, but how does it compare to previous years?
I scrolled through EOSDIS. 2012 is similar or worse. 2013 had a small area of fire. 2009 was kinda bad. And 2002 had a small area as well. I would put 2019 at #2 behind 2012. But 2019 appears to be flaring up intensely right now (IMO) and the forecast for the next few days is likely to result in worsening conditions / fires spreading. This is actually (apparently) quite early in the year for the Siberian fires to get going.

Both of the orange bubbles here are derivative of early snowmelt -> soaring temps. As soon as the land loses its snowpack at this time of year, temperatures seem to shoot up back into the 90s. It is interesting to watch Siberia turn green over the past week or so. At the same time as things green, paradoxically, they also seem to begin catching fire.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2148 on: June 19, 2019, 11:48:02 PM »
A 9 C dewpoint means that a brick on the ground that is 47 degrees F will get wet from water condensing out from the humid air. Now imagine what that warm humid air blowing at sustained 23 miles per hour will do to ice.

Frivolous is right. These are crazy melt conditions on the Siberian side.

And all the heat over Siberia means that there will be a surge of warm river water onto the Siberian shelf. The fast ice will be gone fast.
FooW, Friv - I think we have a new benchmark definition for 'blowtorch' here.  Or maybe we need to add 'bonfire' or 'firestorm' to the lexicon?

The absolute humidity is breathtaking and alarming in the same go...
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2149 on: June 19, 2019, 11:56:27 PM »
Regardless of the fires, that Worldview shows well the north-to-south dividing line between warmer than average airmass (east/left of the N-S cloudbank toward the Bering) and cooler (west/right toward Europe).