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Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2150 on: June 19, 2019, 11:58:37 PM »

The absolute humidity is breathtaking and alarming in the same go...

I can't quite wrap my head around the humidity, but where I live gets adiabatic winds down from the Rocky Mountain. They are warm but very dry, yet they can lay waste to a foot of snow in no time. Shifts of 30 degs C in an hour or two are not uncommon. The record is -19C to +22C in one hour, in January.

Adding in the humidity means that the ice will have a very bad time of it.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2151 on: June 20, 2019, 12:03:33 AM »
And the absolute humidity with it's shockingly high enthalpy - take another look at Rox's post that shows the heat released by condensation - just keeps on coming from central Eurasia thanks to the extraordinary southerly wind fetch. Forget what you thought was the worst case scenario for melting. There's more heat (enthalpy) transport towards the pole (all the way to freaking Greenland) in this scenario that any other possible situation presently possible in mid-June.

The image below is taken from the GFS Climate Reanalyzer 8 days out forecast linked above. Note that there is a continuous push of heat and humidity from central Eurasia towards the pole for the whole 8 days leading up to the forecast panel shown below... and it continues after 8 days in the GFS model. The Laptev bight is going to extend rapidly towards the north pole.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 12:08:57 AM by FishOutofWater »

aperson

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2152 on: June 20, 2019, 12:13:45 AM »
^ If those PWATs validate there will be extensive melting along the Barents Sea where 2019 has increased extent coverage relative to recent years.

I'm of the possibly naive belief that Warm Air Advection of high PWAT air parcels gives you the vertical instability needed to transfer massive amounts of heat to the ice surface. Without the humidity, warmer air should float above the protective cold air directly above the ice surface with insufficient convective instability to reach the surface.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2153 on: June 20, 2019, 12:19:06 AM »
Remember that sounding was taken over land albiet an island in the laptev.


So I am sure once that flow of ir reaches the ice it starts to dramatically cool.


However the gfs is showing sunstainsial rain over the central Arctic the next 36 hours.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2154 on: June 20, 2019, 12:26:38 AM »
The gfs OP is nuts like the euro.

The euro op keeps trending towards a dipole in the long range.

But that gfs ridge is crazy awesome
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2155 on: June 20, 2019, 12:32:53 AM »
IDK how accurate the EURO is but this is what it shows D0 vs. D10.

I assume it is a pretty decent overall projection based on the model's (generally) superior skills. In our case it would indicate there will be open water stretching from Beaufort to Barentz (or at least the Laptev) by the first week of July. The shorefast ice in the Bering almost looks done for.

I think the EURO maps belie the weakness of most of the PAC-peripheral pack, though. HYCOM is kind of silly on its own but I think it has value here. Almost everything south of 80N is already within 30-45 days of melting. There are slivers of MYI here and there but nothing expansive enough to result in a cohesive retreat like most years see. Recall how 2016's end state consisted of a rapid melt out of this same vulnerable area, leaving fragmented MYI and a few chunks of FYI.



This year, it looks like we are going to see a much faster melt-out that occurs much earlier in the year (IMO). That will be really bad.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 12:38:43 AM by bbr2314 »

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2156 on: June 20, 2019, 12:47:29 AM »
 so we have a river of water from the Bay of Bengal .. is this the missing monsoon ? .. b.c.

 ref . FOOW's post 2151 .. on precipitable water .

 
 
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 01:09:01 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2157 on: June 20, 2019, 12:56:35 AM »
El Niño & the transfer of westerly wind momentum from the polar night jet in the stratosphere to the polar jet stream in response to the intense end (of winter) stratospheric warming held back the movement of ocean heat from the equatorial southern hemisphere to the equatorial northern hemisphere, delaying the southwest monsoon onset.

It's a very big picture thing, not a river water in the Bay of Bengal thing.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2158 on: June 20, 2019, 01:03:15 AM »
so we have a riveer of water from the Bay of Bengal .. is this the missing monsoon ? .. b.c.

 
Where the moisture is most dense, it's 2.5-3CM of water per m2.  That heat getting captured would melt 20CM of ice more or less.  It won't transfer perfectly, but is being constantly refreshed, which makes. Things Rather Exciting in unpleasant ways.


About the only thing to make this worse would be it happening in May.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2159 on: June 20, 2019, 01:08:03 AM »
The fire situation in Siberia is spiraling.

I don't mind the occasional Siberian fires update, but how does it compare to previous years?

Early days thus far, there have been huge fires in recent years. The ones I can see so far south of the Laptev Sea aren't pyroclastic infernos punching into the stratosphere(OTOH the most northerly fires thus far aren't much more than 100km from coast). Last year(I think, maybe the year before or 2016) later on in the season some fires' plumes were 200km wide and travelled right across the basin eg from central Siberia to Alaska etc. As time allows(and fires develop further) I'll try to dig up images from Worldview

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2160 on: June 20, 2019, 01:22:56 AM »
^ If those PWATs validate there will be extensive melting along the Barents Sea where 2019 has increased extent coverage relative to recent years.

I'm of the possibly naive belief that Warm Air Advection of high PWAT air parcels gives you the vertical instability needed to transfer massive amounts of heat to the ice surface. Without the humidity, warmer air should float above the protective cold air directly above the ice surface with insufficient convective instability to reach the surface.

The more wind, and the gustier the wind, the less protection the ice will have from direct contact - the incursions periodically bring 20+ kt winds to the Laptev etc. And condensation in the air column above will produce a flux of  longwave radiation. Even in winter that can decimate ice

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2161 on: June 20, 2019, 01:33:55 AM »
Bremen NIC, last 4 weeks, cropped (https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/).
5-day trailing median.

Click to animate (2.6 MB file size).

cavitycreep

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2162 on: June 20, 2019, 01:39:04 AM »
Ha, petm beat me to it.  ;)

Sea Ice Concentration, June 4 – June 18
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 03:56:28 AM by cavitycreep »

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2163 on: June 20, 2019, 02:25:29 AM »

Quite a little cyclone this created! As others pointed out, the primary reason is clear in the data: dispersion. E.g. Look at Wipneus' regional extent charts for the Beaufort.


And what is the reason that Beaufort extent jumped quickly up? A storm dispersed ice from a compact region into open water --  see any of the several recently posted animations of the region. The end result of this dispersion will almost certainly not be less ice melt, but more.

I realize that all this has been pointed out previously, but I agree with TeaLight and just want to make sure that these obvious points have not been obscured successfully.

Don't hang your hat on extent values, especially short-term blips.

Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.  Recent weather patterns have been pushing ice from Laptev direction (where rapid ice loss is evident) and towards Beaufort.  If you compare concentration maps of today with those a week or so ago the obvious increase in low-concentration ice is around Laptev and ESS, and corresponds to melt ponds.

I put zero importance in short term changes in extent, but do suggest that they be attributed to the correct reason, being cloudy weather in Kara delaying ice melt in that region for a short period of time.  The region will melt out soon enough, and slow melt in Kara is due to cold air being exported from Arctic in that direction allowing warm air to move into the Arctic from elsewhere.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2164 on: June 20, 2019, 02:41:39 AM »
SSTs are going to be insane on the Pacific side by season's end, indeed they already are. Much of the Chukchi sea is already 6C and water up to 9C can be found on WindyTV well clear of the coast. It's also showing an inflowing current at the Bering Strait. Much of Norton Sound, the big bay in Alaska just south of the Bering Strait, is 14C and sheltered waters can be found up to 17C. The Bering Sea is very warm

Jim Hunt, pack your swimming trunks! A summer wetsuit as well as the full steamer

Surf Reports from the Laptev to the Beaufort sea? Will a broad area of open water develop through the ESS connecting the Laptev bite to the Chukchi? Already in ice covered areas there are little blips of warmer(0C) water appearing the last couple of days on the chart north and west of Wrangel Island, also along along the crack in ESSbetween fast ice and mobile pack,  as well as some in (I guess) areas where the pack is dispersed(as well as the river mouths on the coast, which are warmer again. In fact a great deal of the ESS shows as -1 or 0, not the -2 I expected to see,

Are the instruments being fooled somehow by the conditions(over ESS) or does this indicate  some residual warmth from last season or mixing of the surface layer? The rapid warming of the Chukchi sea is suggestive(at least to me) of residual warmth lurking from the past few years where its really struggled to refreeze. It may lag yet further this year, maybe preventing the Bering from freezing at all, except for a few bays

The Laptev bite is about 3-4C mostly. All the fast ice that's about to crumble into it should help keep the temp down for now as its north sides marches on the pole.

I've attached a couple of windy/ECMWF SST maps to illustrate as well as the DMI SST anomaly map for yesterday, which also shows the warmth approaching Fram strait and Svalbard from the south(also getting redder by the day). DMI will have to extend their scale, as most of the Bering and Chukchi are literally off the chart

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2165 on: June 20, 2019, 03:06:02 AM »
The fire situation in Siberia is spiraling. Each day is getting worse.

There are some big ones west of the Hudson too.   Yesterday Churchill, Manitoba hit 27C (80.6F) breaking its all time high temperature record for June 18.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2166 on: June 20, 2019, 03:29:08 AM »

Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.

Michael Hauber you should be ashamed of yourself.  This is an absolutely incorrect and misleading statement that is contradicted by several images posted above from hard working people who are trying to accurately describe what is actually happening right now. 

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2167 on: June 20, 2019, 03:40:56 AM »
Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.

Ice moving spreading out from a dense location into a less dense location is the very definition of dispersion. That it crossed some arbitrary line on a map makes no difference.

The underlying question is: extent is stalled, so does that mean that ice melting is stalled (and if so why)? And the answer is clearly, no, and probably the opposite.

Just look at the various animations if you have any (real) doubts about what's happening.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 03:53:47 AM by petm »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2168 on: June 20, 2019, 04:01:11 AM »
Michael Hauber. If there's a real increase in area in the Beaufort Sea it came from elsewhere, there's no new ice forming. It came from the CAB, which hasn't had an area reduction, so trhe concentration has to have decreased. To be counted as area a grid square needs to contain at least 85% ice, so in an extreme case area could go up 15% with no real gain.

The pack in northern Beaufort and adjacent CAB loosens(but is still>85% ice), et voila, unreal area gains

The collapse over the Siberian shelf, if it happens rapidly, could create the same effect

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2169 on: June 20, 2019, 04:25:35 AM »
The pack in northern Beaufort and adjacent CAB loosens(but is still>85% ice), et voila, unreal area gains

You may actually be able see this effect in the "draft" behind the Beaufort dispersion, e.g. on the animation I posted (purples shifting to yellows).

Furthermore, if you look closely at satellite imagery of the Beaufort ice over the last week or two (as several posters have already done up-thread), it's not difficult to see the detrimental effects this reversal in ice movement is having on actual ice amount / strength. Large floes are torn apart, I would guess by tension due to rapidly changed and differential winds; Small floes and other small ice pushed into the recently-warmed open ocean melt away rapidly; And unprotected water is created between floes in the "wake" zone, ready to absorb peak insolation. It's hard to see how any of this could be protective of (or good for) the ice...

"Beaufort blender" indeed!

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2170 on: June 20, 2019, 06:11:22 AM »
Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.
It is true that Beaufort extent and area jump up, so I think that Michael Hauber opinion is valid, even that we could disagree with what he thinks.
Please be respectful in posting your comments.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 06:20:08 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2171 on: June 20, 2019, 06:34:30 AM »
Michael Hauber. If there's a real increase in area in the Beaufort Sea it came from elsewhere, there's no new ice forming. It came from the CAB, which hasn't had an area reduction, so trhe concentration has to have decreased.

Definitely came from CAB..  CAB has not had a decrease in area detected by incidents - therefore concentation as measured by instruments did not decrease.  Two possibilities.  The ice moving from CAB to Beaufort was replaced.  Current weather patterns suggest that ice from Laptev is moving towards the CAB, so I am sure this accounts for at least part of the reason why the CAB did not lose area.  Its also possible that CAB lost real area, but this was not detected by instruments.  I can't see anything on MODIS, but thats no guarantee.  Either way there is no contribution to dispersal as measured by instruments due to this effect.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2172 on: June 20, 2019, 07:03:24 AM »
The fire situation in Siberia is spiraling.
Spiraling rather literally in Alaska.

It will be somewhat uncomfortably interesting observing intensifying fires around the Arctic basin over the coming months. They don't seem currently worse than at the same date over recent years, though there's always the potential that they could only ever inevitably become much worse than they ever were.
2012 vs 2019:

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2173 on: June 20, 2019, 08:51:52 AM »
I agree about the craziness of the weather forecast. I think it is the worst heatwave in the Arctic ever, even worst than the one in July 2007 or July 2011 or July 2012. As a consequence of the warmth, moisture, and high pressure, Z500 height is mind blowing with values up to 5 800 gdam !
A simple but convenient way to define the northern border of the tropical belt is by using the belt of highest Z500. Here this belt is near to break away with a secondary maximum wich, around the Pacific, is not so secondary as Z500 is about the same other Arctic than over Hawaïi ! I have never seen such a thing.... This also means clear skies but also, as moisture content is high, reduced outgoing longwave radiation.  I agree with Frivolous, we can't overstate how epic is the weather forecast.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 09:21:42 AM by aslan »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2174 on: June 20, 2019, 09:01:27 AM »
:o



00z EURO is really bad....

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2175 on: June 20, 2019, 09:14:45 AM »
:o



00z EURO is really bad....

Yeah and GFS is about the same, the differences between the two giving that we are at H+216 are really smalls. Arctic is the new tropical belt... This is going to be epic.

P.S. And this is happening around solstice, as in 2007 or in in 2011 or in 2012 the highest T850 and Z500 happened latter, around mid July so with a bit lower Sun.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 09:21:27 AM by aslan »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2176 on: June 20, 2019, 09:23:19 AM »

Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.

Michael Hauber you should be ashamed of yourself.  This is an absolutely incorrect and misleading statement that is contradicted by several images posted above from hard working people who are trying to accurately describe what is actually happening right now.
LOL don't you see the ice being transported West from the CAB into the Beaufort in that recent GIF from Unicorn or on the daily from Aluminium?
It is correct
Except that there is bottom melt, but that sure be taking off slowly. Who knows, no IMB buoys anymore

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2177 on: June 20, 2019, 09:25:42 AM »
That fast ice in ESS finally showing some cracks - bigg difference in one day. Click to animate.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2178 on: June 20, 2019, 09:31:21 AM »
East Siberia.

Looks like the fast ice cracked here from the weight of the inland freshwater sitting on it.

Dr G

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2179 on: June 20, 2019, 09:33:04 AM »
I agree about the craziness of the weather forecast. I think it is the worst heatwave in the Arctic ever, even worst than the one in July 2007 or July 2011 or July 2012. As a consequence of the warmth, moisture, and high pressure, Z500 height is mind blowing with values up to 5 800 gdam !
A simple but convenient way to define the northern border of the tropical belt is by using the belt of highest Z500. Here this belt is near to break away with a secondary maximum wich, around the Pacific, is not so secondary as Z500 is about the same other Arctic than over Hawaïi ! I have never seen such a thing.... This also means clear skies but also, as moisture content is high, reduced outgoing longwave radiation.  I agree with Frivolous, we can't overstate how epic is the weather forecast.

Hi, long time lurker posting...so hopefully I've got this quote button thing right and thank you Neven for running this fantastic resource and to you all for your contributions  :) :) :) :).

Question...I can see the crazy pattern over the Artic in this graph, but can someone explain what/significance of what this is showing or direct me to appropriate thread?

Thanks

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2180 on: June 20, 2019, 09:34:32 AM »
Ice that enters the Beaufort is as doomed as that leaving the Fram, but it will take until August.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2181 on: June 20, 2019, 09:48:11 AM »
Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.

Ice moving spreading out from a dense location into a less dense location is the very definition of dispersion. That it crossed some arbitrary line on a map makes no difference.

The underlying question is: extent is stalled, so does that mean that ice melting is stalled (and if so why)? And the answer is clearly, no, and probably the opposite.

Just look at the various animations if you have any (real) doubts about what's happening.
That arbitrary line you mention is important.
Visible melting was clearly super stalled under the storm and before too. That the ice was peeled off from the coast in April and May and compacted was also not real melt. It was ice being exported from Beaufort to Chukchi and some to CAB, crossing imaginary lines that we may not choose to ignore.
Another thing is bottom melt, I believe it may be not negligible anymore, but that's not relevant for the discussion at hand at this moment
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 12:33:05 PM by Sterks »

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2182 on: June 20, 2019, 09:49:04 AM »
Ice that enters the Beaufort is as doomed as that leaving the Fram, but it will take until August.

It can be noted again that despite cold, cyclonic conditions over Beaufort and archipelago, min temperatures remains near -1°C and max temperatures near 2 -3 °C, SST remains warm for the region (2 - 3°C) and are note cooling, dew point are not strongly negative and soundings don't show temperature inversion. Beaufort sea is now a graveyard for ice. Open too early, warm too much during Spring.

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2183 on: June 20, 2019, 10:17:34 AM »
East Siberia.

Looks like the fast ice cracked here from the weight of the inland freshwater sitting on it.

I don't think the river is flowing onto the ice, I think it's completely melting it into open water, as the severed ice appears to be moving around freely.  More cracks are forming, feels like the ESS will really deteriorate very soon.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2184 on: June 20, 2019, 10:57:23 AM »
Good point Jay. I never imagined the (fresh) water to be that warm. But seeing this, it indeed seems to melt the ice away.

bluice

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2185 on: June 20, 2019, 11:29:18 AM »
Weather has been hot in Siberia past days/weeks. Probably it has heated up the river water also. Warm water makes wonders on ice.

When warm water flows straight onto ice it doesn't mix with colder sea water before melting the ice first.
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Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2186 on: June 20, 2019, 11:39:37 AM »
I have to admit some of the forecasts that are now showing is getting concerning for the ice, heat is one thing but so is wind strength and more evidence is showing that the winds could become quite strong from the south. Hints also the high might migrate into Beaufort at some point and then it will deffinately be like 2007. Also the Greenland high is returning and looking very strong so surface melting on the ice sheet will no doubt be quite widespread again.

So some fun and games looks like could be arriving soon.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2187 on: June 20, 2019, 12:14:52 PM »
Hi Paul

If you consider the ongoing "death spiral"
Quote
fun and games
it is OK with me.

Others may have diverging views

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2188 on: June 20, 2019, 12:16:59 PM »
I found a paper that I thought is relevant to the discussion here:

Increases in the Pacific inflow to the Arctic from 1990 to 2015, and insights into seasonal trends and driving mechanisms from year-round Bering Strait mooring data

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BStraitSeasonalInterannualChange2017/Woodgate2017BeringStraitChanges_28ththJune2017_TextTablesFigureswithfc.pdf

I haven't had time to read the whole thing, but it suggests that the average annual heat flux through the Bering Strait has increased as follows:

1991-2015: 7.2 ± 4.5 1018J/yr (after correction: 5.9± 4.6)
1998-2015: 8.7 ± 5.7 1018J/yr (after correction: 6.9 ± 5.9)
2000-2015: 9.7 ± 6.5 1018J/yr (after correction: 7.8 ±6.80)

It also cites Serreze et al, which I believe has been mentioned on here various times before:

Moreover,  a  recent  study  of  in  situ,  satellite  and  modeling  results  [Serreze  et  al., 2016] conclude the oceanic heat flux through the strait (in April-June) may explain 68% of the variance in the timing of sea-ice retreat in the Chukchi Sea, with model correlations suggesting the Bering Strait heat  flux  is  a  more  efficient  predictor  than  the  atmospheric  forcing  terms  of  wind,  surface  airtemperature,  or  radiation.

Bearing in mind the unprecedented (I believe) heat not just in the Chukchi Sea but also in the Bering Sea, this could be particularly significant this year.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2189 on: June 20, 2019, 01:01:55 PM »
Either way there is no contribution to dispersal as measured by instruments due to this effect.
It is very easy to see for oneself where the new ice in the Beaufort region came from. It was pushed there from the adjacent CAB by a storm and was spread out (not to mention pulverized) into the open waters of the Beaufort. Are you saying that satellite photographs do not qualify as instrument measurements?

Perhaps this map of the regions will help:
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 01:19:26 PM by petm »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2190 on: June 20, 2019, 01:52:45 PM »
The weather models are basically shocking.


Day 1 through 4 see a huge Ridge over the Pacific side very bad for the ice.

But around day 4 this Ridge becomes epic level expansive.

Like what the fuck.

That is all
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2191 on: June 20, 2019, 01:58:02 PM »
You guys are arguing over miniscule measurements.  It's most likely is that the sensor on the satellite was fooled because of the cold expansive swirling mid-level air mass over the ice.

Between that and the ice being spread out in a cyclonic flow it's probably just instrument error


Seriously guys the weather has been bad and now it's forecasted to become unprecedented in the size and scope of this warm ridge.

LIKE WAAAAA.....


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2192 on: June 20, 2019, 02:02:07 PM »
As others have said

This is going to happen at peak.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2193 on: June 20, 2019, 02:07:47 PM »
So here is day 2-4.  Let's not overlook how bad that is.

But it seems small compared to the epic level ridge coming after day 4.

I can say that as a ardent follower of weather for 25 years now. Ages 11-36.

The models won't change much for next week. This is happening.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2194 on: June 20, 2019, 02:33:16 PM »
I thought things were improving somewhat as the last ridge we were just watching over Greenland failed to pierce the polar front.  at least it isn't dual monster ridges coming from both East & West cutting the whole thing neatly in half as we have observed a half dozen times since November.  Now it's just one side at a time.

I'm guessing all that time the polar cell spent displaced out of the Arctic, lashing the continents with cold rain & snow... has warmed it up a big step.  The snow on land is virtually gone, and sure enough, the polar cell consolidates over the Arctic generally.

Chaos is entering the equation in a big way.  Predictability is falling.  This is a transition.
I am not a scientist

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2195 on: June 20, 2019, 02:43:08 PM »
Hi Paul

If you consider the ongoing "death spiral"
Quote
fun and games
it is OK with me.

Others may have diverging views

Fun and games in respect of watching and waiting too see what the result is going to be if indeed the predictions of such an extensive high does happen.

Im not quite sure i would call it unprecedented though, July 2011 and 2015 both saw very large and high thickness high pressure cells dominating the basin, the result is alot of extent loss but compacting the CAB ice.

Still, its not a formality such a set up will occur though even though the signals are looking strong for it.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2196 on: June 20, 2019, 02:43:53 PM »
I agree that the forecast is looking very bad, especially on the Siberian side. Maybe only a classic dipole (high on Canadian side, low on Siberian side) would be worse, but mostly for the numbers due to compaction. There is less compaction now, hence the extent and area numbers not being lowest. But the ice is getting hammered, as the mid-monthly PIOMAS update has confirmed.

Major melting momentum is being built up, and it will take some extremely bad weather - worse even than in 2016, 2017 and 2018 - to prevent this year's minimum from entering the Top 3. Just average weather will mean at least a second position, and a continuation of what we're seeing, will break records.

The forecast shows at least six more days of worsening conditions (read: higher pressure over a larger part of the Arctic), and as others have noted, the forecasts after D6 look truly abysmal. We can only hope that the models have it wrong.

Solstice is tomorrow...
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2197 on: June 20, 2019, 02:47:53 PM »
Friv, did you really begin your weather career at age 11?? I'm seriously impressed.
BTW, keep up the hyperbole, when it's coming from you it's totally believable. I find your analysis (and language) spot on.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2198 on: June 20, 2019, 02:55:17 PM »
If I recall, all models skills degrade as we get close to July. Day 7 can be as uncertain as Day 10 two months ago.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2199 on: June 20, 2019, 03:01:11 PM »
As others have said

This is going to happen at peak.

A question on the graph.  Intuitively, it seems like the 60 degree line should be in between the 90 and 30 degree lines.   Why is the 60 degree isolation lower than 30?