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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2200 on: June 20, 2019, 03:28:19 PM »
First chart is D+2 EC forecast
Second chart is for same date, but issued four days ago, that is D+6 EC forecast.
Difficult to trust???
Are we abusing of D+7 or beyond charts??

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2201 on: June 20, 2019, 03:35:45 PM »
The D+3 is no longer the hammer (it was when D+6), now the blowtorch really baf is D+8. Are we chasing a carrot?

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2202 on: June 20, 2019, 03:48:15 PM »
The D+3 is no longer the hammer (it was when D+6), now the blowtorch really baf is D+8. Are we chasing a carrot?

The two forecast are not so different, and are anyway bad for sea ice. Models are tightly clustered, GFS and IFS are quite the same, and the ensemble of both models also. To illustrate, is attached the spread for the ensemble of IFS at H+168. Models are quite stable for the Arctic ridge (and Greenland ridge by the way). On top of that, the european guy Is usualy less prone to go into overdrive mode. But currently IFS is as much, if not even more, crazy than GFS. This Is telling something.


gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2203 on: June 20, 2019, 03:59:29 PM »
As others have said

This is going to happen at peak.

A question on the graph.  Intuitively, it seems like the 60 degree line should be in between the 90 and 30 degree lines.   Why is the 60 degree isolation lower than 30?
The impact of longer daylight hours is greater than the impact of the sun's lower angle on the heat per square metre on the surface. The brainiacs have produced loads of standard tables on it.

I tried doing some work on that but my brain said "you aren't a pure maths undergrad anymore". (And anyway I spent far too much time in the bar and the snooker room).
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2204 on: June 20, 2019, 04:01:42 PM »
A question on the graph.  Intuitively, it seems like the 60 degree line should be in between the 90 and 30 degree lines.   Why is the 60 degree isolation lower than 30?

The total daily insolation is the result of a combination of the number of hours of sun and the average angle of incidence over the course of the day. Between the tropics and the polar regions, there's virtually no difference in the peak values. So, I don't think that the value for 60 degrees is really lower than 30 degrees – to all intents and purposes they're the same.

In the tropics the peak values are a bit lower, and in the polar regions they're a bit higher. This is related to the Earth's tilt, I think. The poles are, at the summer solstice, tilted towards the sun all day long, receiving an equivalent amount of insolation as somewhere at 66.5 degrees does at an equinox - but 24 hours a day. Conversely, in the tropics, the longest day of the year doesn't coincide with when the sun is directly overhead (in the northern hemisphere, the sun appears in the northern sky briefly around the solstice). So you don't get the full effect of maximum hours of sun + maximum insolation.

The FAO have a graph with a wider range of values (every 10 degrees), where you can see that the values don't substantially change between 30 and 60 degrees:

http://www.fao.org/3/x6541e/X6541E03.htm

Edited to include link.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 04:25:55 PM by BenB »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2205 on: June 20, 2019, 04:03:27 PM »
When D1-D6 looks really bad, it's only natural to look beyond, especially when models agree. But always with the caveat that weather forecasts become increasingly unreliable the further out you go.

In other words, it could be even worse!  ;)
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2206 on: June 20, 2019, 04:07:32 PM »
As others have said

This is going to happen at peak.

A question on the graph.  Intuitively, it seems like the 60 degree line should be in between the 90 and 30 degree lines.   Why is the 60 degree isolation lower than 30?

Great question.  I think that this is because we tend to see the Equator on this graph as the point at which the sun is most directly overhead (angle of insolation is 90 degrees), but in fact at the summer solstice, that point is above the Tropic of Cancer, 23.4 degrees north of the equator.  And during June, the days are also longer above the Tropic of Cancer (as they are for the whole N Hemisphere) than they are at the equator.  So that turns Earth along the latitude of Tropic of Cancer into a sort of "Super Equator" for the month of June.  It receives, during June, considerably more solar radiation in total than does the equator at its maximum angle of insolation, at the equinoxes.   This also applies, to a lesser degree, to the 30 degree N latitude.  Hence the pronounced 'bump' of this 30 N line on the graph.   At 60 N, the days are longer, but the average angle of insolation is obviously not as favorable.   Obviously at some point the lowering angle of insolation (taking W/m2 down) is overwhelmed by the increasing length of the day (increasing total energy received) (hence the 90 N peak).

Since the insolation received in W/m2 is a function of angle of insolation and hours of daylight (and varying angles of insolation over a day) it must be quite a complex calculation to work out the total energy received per day at most points on the Earth.  So my response to you is logically intuitive but far from quantitatively decisive.

I do have a quibble with the graph labeling.  The y axis is labeled as W/m2.  A Watt is a joule per second.  The graph axis should be labeled W/m2 averaged over each 24 hour period.  If you had a graph that truly showed the energy delivered at the second at noon on the June equinox, then the 30N W/m2 would blow the 90N W/m2 out of the water.  I realize that this is understood by those reading the graph, but there is also the argument that graph axes should be properly labeled.

Hope this helps.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 04:13:48 PM by Pagophilus »

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2207 on: June 20, 2019, 04:41:14 PM »
When D1-D6 looks really bad

Especially for the Kara and surrounding area, it's going to be literally screwed by persistent high winds, rain and wet snow over the next 5 days.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2208 on: June 20, 2019, 05:00:15 PM »
First chart is D+2 EC forecast
Second chart is for same date, but issued four days ago, that is D+6 EC forecast.
Difficult to trust???
Are we abusing of D+7 or beyond charts??

Those charts look very similar.

The boundary layer draped across the central Arctic is almost identical in the same position as it was on the older forecast.

Don't get hung up on the orientation of the ridge Being slightly different.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2209 on: June 20, 2019, 05:10:36 PM »
The ensembles are in remarkable agreement.
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2210 on: June 20, 2019, 05:16:04 PM »
And the absolute humidity with it's shockingly high enthalpy - take another look at Rox's post that shows the heat released by condensation - just keeps on coming from central Eurasia thanks to the extraordinary southerly wind fetch. Forget what you thought was the worst case scenario for melting. There's more heat (enthalpy) transport towards the pole (all the way to freaking Greenland) in this scenario that any other possible situation presently possible in mid-June.

The image below is taken from the GFS Climate Reanalyzer 8 days out forecast linked above. Note that there is a continuous push of heat and humidity from central Eurasia towards the pole for the whole 8 days leading up to the forecast panel shown below... and it continues after 8 days in the GFS model. The Laptev bight is going to extend rapidly towards the north pole.

FOOW, I understand that you and others have a lot more expertise than I do in this area.  And the thermodynamics of 1 g of water vapor condensing and melting 7 g ice are incontrovertible.  My question is with respect to the Nullschool forecast (as of June 20) and what it is showing up to 5 days from now.  For the water to melt the ice in this way, the water vapor must come in contact with the ice.  So I looked at maps of surface winds on Nullschool and their total precipitable water over the next few days.  And I looked at these maps for the past few days.  There is little difference between the forecast and the recent past.  The highest figures for total precipitable water I could obtain were 30kg/m3 for surface air moving over the Laptev on June 13.  Looking forward from the, the forecast ridge towards the pole is forecast to have around 20kg/m3.  That water vapor content has not been uncommon over the past few days in some areas.   What am I missing?  Am I mistaken in looking at the surface winds?  Is Nullschool less reliable?  Or is it the location of this forecast ridge that is so significant?   

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2211 on: June 20, 2019, 05:18:33 PM »
...
The forecast shows at least six more days of worsening conditions (read: higher pressure over a larger part of the Arctic), and as others have noted, the forecasts after D6 look truly abysmal. We can only hope that the models have it wrong.

Solstice is tomorrow...
No, we can do not only that. Namely, we - more precisely, some of us, - may actually hope the models are right. I do, for example. More, i think you should, too. Lately, i came to conclusion that the sooner global industrial will go belly up, - the better. Indeed, it being the most responsible entity for the process of dehabitability (for humans) of large portions of this planet, the sooner it'll go - the better. So, i weep about all the lives which will be lost - but i applaud Blue Arctic in the same time, as the sooner it happens, - the _less_ lives will be lost in the end. Future generations, you know.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2212 on: June 20, 2019, 05:27:23 PM »
Many morally questionable implications with this.

But you have a point, F.Tnioli!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2213 on: June 20, 2019, 05:31:16 PM »
Jim Hunt, pack your swimming trunks! A summer wetsuit as well as the full steamer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2214 on: June 20, 2019, 05:32:00 PM »
When D1-D6 looks really bad

Especially for the Kara and surrounding area, it's going to be literally screwed by persistent high winds, rain and wet snow over the next 5 days.


All of those are certainly threats to the ice.  But I guess that if this happens it also means that the Kara is going to be largely cloudy over the summer solstice and therefore the ice will be shaded during the peak period of solar radiation. 


I don't know the relative magnitude of this reduced insolation versus the other set of effects, but it should be taken into account.  And I think it is worth questioning what else this weather prediction may bring to the Kara.  The Kara has been slow to melt out, so it seems reasonable to think that the Kara surface waters are relatively cold and that winds stirring the floes around will have a limited effect.  The effects of rain could be considerable, depending on the quantity and temperature of the rainfall.  Wet snow I don't know about.  If it sticks for a while it is going increase the albedo of the Kara ice, again at the period of maximum potential insolation, and when it melts it is going to absorb energy...   Probably a lot I am missing, just thinking aloud here... 

« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 06:10:20 PM by Pagophilus »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2215 on: June 20, 2019, 05:48:07 PM »

Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.

Michael Hauber you should be ashamed of yourself.  This is an absolutely incorrect and misleading statement that is contradicted by several images posted above from hard working people who are trying to accurately describe what is actually happening right now.

The high resolution extent and area charts for the Beaufort Sea:

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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2216 on: June 20, 2019, 06:03:22 PM »
...i applaud Blue Arctic in the same time, as the sooner it happens, - the _less_ lives will be lost in the end. Future generations, you know.

Yes, thats the whole point of this forum: we cheer on the melt.  ;)

big time oops

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2217 on: June 20, 2019, 06:11:16 PM »

Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.

Michael Hauber you should be ashamed of yourself.  This is an absolutely incorrect and misleading statement that is contradicted by several images posted above from hard working people who are trying to accurately describe what is actually happening right now.

The high resolution extent and area charts for the Beaufort Sea:
Thank you, Jim, but it just happens that those graphs are utterly insufficient to properly estimate amount of ice there. Amount of ice is defined not just by extent and area, but by the combination of area and thickness (and extent is really not needed). Thickness is missing here.

Besides, each of those measurements is the subject for large uncertainties, especially during melt season. For example, i don't deem it impossible for a satellite / data processing to detect an increase in both area and extent if it's actually a layer of slush, produced by melting ice and significant wave action. Another possible erratic detection of area / extent increase, as mentioned in the forum many times, is when previously on-ice melt ponds get drained into the ocean en masse. Etc.

How on Earth anybody would properly conclude "more ice in general in that location" based on those couple graphs only - i honestly don't know. "Suspect"? Sure, doable. "Likely"? Perhaps. But for sure? Hell no.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2218 on: June 20, 2019, 06:30:23 PM »

Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.

Michael Hauber you should be ashamed of yourself.  This is an absolutely incorrect and misleading statement that is contradicted by several images posted above from hard working people who are trying to accurately describe what is actually happening right now.

The high resolution extent and area charts for the Beaufort Sea:
Thank you, Jim, but it just happens that those graphs are utterly insufficient to properly estimate amount of ice there. Amount of ice is defined not just by extent and area, but by the combination of area and thickness (and extent is really not needed). Thickness is missing here.

Besides, each of those measurements is the subject for large uncertainties, especially during melt season. For example, i don't deem it impossible for a satellite / data processing to detect an increase in both area and extent if it's actually a layer of slush, produced by melting ice and significant wave action. Another possible erratic detection of area / extent increase, as mentioned in the forum many times, is when previously on-ice melt ponds get drained into the ocean en masse. Etc.

How on Earth anybody would properly conclude "more ice in general in that location" based on those couple graphs only - i honestly don't know. "Suspect"? Sure, doable. "Likely"? Perhaps. But for sure? Hell no.

Actual measurements of ice thickness available for this area?  No.   Graphs provided in this instance by James Hunt are generally accepted as summaries of data sets?  Yes.   Parallel and clear trends in changes in area and extent over the past 10 days?  Yes.  Should Micheal H. make an absolutely definitive statement of interpretation?  No, that is not scientific, but a whole lot of people continually do this on this forum.  Is his hypothesis a reasonable one based on the evidence at hand?  To me, yes, it is.

I am not sure what underlies all the heated responses from various sources about Michael H's observations about the ice.  I think it is valuable to have hypotheses that challenge the general interpretation.  And if he is correct in this instance, it means the ice from the central pack is spreading out and therefore the central ice pack as a whole is becoming more vulnerable to melting.  That is not 'denier' talk, which he has been accused of fostering.   What is going on?  It looks strange to someone like me 'on the outside'.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2219 on: June 20, 2019, 06:30:43 PM »
The weather models are basically shocking.

Day 1 through 4 see a huge Ridge over the Pacific side very bad for the ice.

But around day 4 this Ridge becomes epic level expansive.

Like what the fuck.

That is all

Whoa. When Friv is stunned into writing short, simple sentences with no wildly descriptive adjectives, that scares the shit out of me. I may not know how to read the weather, but I know how to read the Friv.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2220 on: June 20, 2019, 06:32:37 PM »
The weather models are basically shocking.

Day 1 through 4 see a huge Ridge over the Pacific side very bad for the ice.

But around day 4 this Ridge becomes epic level expansive.

Like what the fuck.

That is all

Whoa. When Friv is stunned into writing short, simple sentences with no wildly descriptive adjectives, that scares the shit out of me. I may not know how to read the weather, but I know how to read the Friv.
Same. Very well put, too.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2221 on: June 20, 2019, 06:37:09 PM »
...  Parallel and clear trends in changes in area and extent over the past 10 days?  Yes. ...
Yes, the trend as it was in the past - is clear. This year breaks it. Means something different is going on. Means old "rules" may well not apply anymore. And to your question - if something's going on, i'm unawares; merely commented the content, did not comment the person. I always do that. If Santa dear Claus, best friends of kids whole world around, will come in here and say all kids are to be killed on sight, - heck sure i'll comment negatively, not paying no heed to "who" he is. Same.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 06:43:38 PM by F.Tnioli »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2222 on: June 20, 2019, 06:38:57 PM »
Amount of ice is defined not just by extent and area, but by the combination of area and thickness (and extent is really not needed). Thickness is missing here.

How on Earth anybody would properly conclude "more ice in general in that location" based on those couple graphs only - i honestly don't know. "Suspect"? Sure, doable. "Likely"? Perhaps. But for sure? Hell no.
Just for you..
- NSIDC Area,
- PIOMAS Volume,
- Thickness - PIOMAS Volume divided by NSIDC area

I think they all say a bit of a hiccup in Beaufort's record losses to date.

NOTE: Volume and thickness to 15th June, area to 19th June
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2223 on: June 20, 2019, 06:45:09 PM »
Ah, there we go, beautiful, gerontocrat! So do my eyes decieve me, or do i see "amount" of ice ain't going anywhere one could name "up", on 2nd of those beautiful graphs? I'd say well within known error margins, that hiccup. So perhaps reaction of some forumites to the above "more ice in general in that location" is simply because that's one statement which goes against what those folks know must have been happening there? Like, June 20th, "more ice somewhere in NH" sounding... Silly? ;)
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 06:52:24 PM by F.Tnioli »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2224 on: June 20, 2019, 06:57:06 PM »

Quite a little cyclone this created! As others pointed out, the primary reason is clear in the data: dispersion. E.g. Look at Wipneus' regional extent charts for the Beaufort.


And what is the reason that Beaufort extent jumped quickly up? A storm dispersed ice from a compact region into open water --  see any of the several recently posted animations of the region. The end result of this dispersion will almost certainly not be less ice melt, but more.

one correct reason does not exclude another correct reason, hence:

- thanks for adding the information (correct)

- not necessary to discredit other also correct reasons

- either way there was no now ice produced, it's simply a shift/drift thingy as everyone knows
for obvious reasons, no freezing temps in reach LOL ;) ;)



I realize that all this has been pointed out previously, but I agree with TeaLight and just want to make sure that these obvious points have not been obscured successfully.

Don't hang your hat on extent values, especially short-term blips.

Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.  Recent weather patterns have been pushing ice from Laptev direction (where rapid ice loss is evident) and towards Beaufort.  If you compare concentration maps of today with those a week or so ago the obvious increase in low-concentration ice is around Laptev and ESS, and corresponds to melt ponds.

I put zero importance in short term changes in extent, but do suggest that they be attributed to the correct reason, being cloudy weather in Kara delaying ice melt in that region for a short period of time.  The region will melt out soon enough, and slow melt in Kara is due to cold air being exported from Arctic in that direction allowing warm air to move into the Arctic from elsewhere.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2225 on: June 20, 2019, 07:12:11 PM »
...
The forecast shows at least six more days of worsening conditions (read: higher pressure over a larger part of the Arctic), and as others have noted, the forecasts after D6 look truly abysmal. We can only hope that the models have it wrong.

Solstice is tomorrow...
No, we can do not only that. Namely, we - more precisely, some of us, - may actually hope the models are right. I do, for example. More, i think you should, too. Lately, i came to conclusion that the sooner global industrial will go belly up, - the better. Indeed, it being the most responsible entity for the process of dehabitability (for humans) of large portions of this planet, the sooner it'll go - the better. So, i weep about all the lives which will be lost - but i applaud Blue Arctic in the same time, as the sooner it happens, - the _less_ lives will be lost in the end. Future generations, you know.

to agree to what you say does NOT mean that i like it but i'm as close to 100% sure as it can get that this few lines have just described the future and at the same time left out many abysmal sideffects.

what adds to it is that it's not only the climate that will teach us, it's the entire system that is rotten and heading towards it's very own colapps.

in private discussion i tend to say:

nobody knows when and nobody knows the exact trigger or succession of trigger events but it won't be long. the moment the shelves will be empty and the ATM won't spit out money on big scale for more than a week or two we better gonna hid in at one of the poles or any other place without larger interest for the morons that rule the world [SARC]

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2226 on: June 20, 2019, 07:19:33 PM »
Hi Pagophilus, Thanks for playing devil's advocate. That's how we all learn and how science works. I also appreciate that despite our differences on this forum we find a way to learn together. The world could use a lot more of that, so let's model it shall we.  ;)

In regards to the Kara, i used the phrase "literally screwed" partly because the whole region looks to be screwed in a wind spiral quite persistently over the next 5-6 days. From my perspective, it's hard to know what will be worse: The higher wind and rain in the Kara or the lower wind/moisture and higher heat/net insolation effecting ESS, etc.

The ice in the Kara does not look particularly robust and there is plenty of open ocean around the pack, and decent space between the floes, to allow waves and Ekman pumping do their work in melting the ice. Are you assuming that the waters are cold in the Kara or do you have data to back that up? Lack of melt there can also mean that there is less cool fresh water about. Also with this much persistent wind one should factor in the heat below the surface that can make its way up.

In the end the melting will have the final say and the arctic will school us all.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 07:30:07 PM by Ice Shieldz »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2227 on: June 20, 2019, 07:28:53 PM »
for some reason that not everyone may share the below source of imagery provides one of the best overall impressions as to the state of the sea-ice and other parameters:

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/index.html?date=&prod=SIC&area=NP&sensor=MOD

my doubts as to usefulness for many is that those mapps rarely make an appearance here, they're even sat-observation based, not models ;)

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2228 on: June 20, 2019, 08:05:51 PM »
12Z GFS slowly goes to a dipole
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2230 on: June 20, 2019, 08:18:33 PM »
. Lately, i came to conclusion that the sooner global industrial will go belly up, - the better. Indeed, it being the most responsible entity for the process of dehabitability (for humans) of large portions of this planet, the sooner it'll go - the better. So, i weep about all the lives which will be lost - but i applaud Blue Arctic in the same time, as the sooner it happens, - the _less_ lives will be lost in the end. Future generations, you know.


Man, u r really, truly misinformed:
1) If a BOE shows up- it's GAME OVER
2) If Global Dimming stops (SO3, SO4 Particles fall out of the Atmosphere because of Industry kaput & not spewing out more, by burning low quality Coal, Oil & Natural Gas)- it's GAME OVER, but even faster, within Weeks- as soon as the Particles fall out completely.

NO such Thing as Future Generations- unless u mean radioactive Bacteria & Co., Cockroaeches at best.

<I don't want this discussion here, any replies will be deleted; N.>
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 08:34:19 PM by Neven »

aperson

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2231 on: June 20, 2019, 08:29:15 PM »
My question is with respect to the Nullschool forecast (as of June 20) and what it is showing up to 5 days from now.

A point of pedantry: Nullschool is a presentation layer, it does not provide a forecast. Its source for most land-derived parameters is the most recent GFS operational model run (the source field in the menu shows the source provided for the currently active field being displayed).

And another point of pedantry about dipoles: The Dipole Anomaly is defined as the second EOF of the 1000 millibar height pattern (the first EOF that explains more variance in the principal component analysis of the 1000 millibar height pattern is the Arctic Oscillation). To present a DA pattern one needs to present a map of 1000h whereas we commonly show 500h. These two heights correlate but are not identical.
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2232 on: June 20, 2019, 08:36:14 PM »
My question is with respect to the Nullschool forecast (as of June 20) and what it is showing up to 5 days from now.

A point of pedantry: Nullschool is a presentation layer, it does not provide a forecast. Its source for most land-derived parameters is the most recent GFS operational model run (the source field in the menu shows the source provided for the currently active field being displayed).

And another point of pedantry about dipoles: The Dipole Anomaly is defined as the second EOF of the 1000 millibar height pattern (the first EOF that explains more variance in the principal component analysis of the 1000 millibar height pattern is the Arctic Oscillation). To present a DA pattern one needs to present a map of 1000h whereas we commonly show 500h. These two heights correlate but are not identical.

Just for the record, I was asking a question, not making a point.  Pedantry would imply I was imparting knowledge.  I was seeking it.   Later edit below

My apologies, aperson.  Because of the general tone of some recent posts, I was disposed to taking your remark as being personal to me, and I wrote hastily.  As I reread your message I now see that was not the case at all, and that you are simply providing expert knowledge, which was what I was asking for, so THANK YOU!   
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 09:13:12 PM by Pagophilus »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2233 on: June 20, 2019, 08:37:44 PM »
<snip, I warned; N.>
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 08:51:49 PM by Neven »
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2234 on: June 20, 2019, 09:04:12 PM »
Looking that the 12z operational model guidance, it seems very likely to have a 1030mb surface high in the ESS region over the next few days, along with a persistent low in the Kara Sea area.
The question is whether the huge 1040mb high develops later on, and if that low stays positioned to push a lot of ice further south in the Atlantic. The ECMWF Day 6-10 forecast certainly looks to me like it would be a disaster for the ice if it verified. Here's Day 2 (highly likely).

aperson

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2235 on: June 20, 2019, 09:08:22 PM »
Just for the record, I was asking a question, not making a point.  Pedantry would imply I was imparting knowledge.  I was seeking it.

Indeed, I am the one being pedantic  :)
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2236 on: June 20, 2019, 09:08:39 PM »
First chart is D+2 EC forecast
Second chart is for same date, but issued four days ago, that is D+6 EC forecast.
Difficult to trust???
Are we abusing of D+7 or beyond charts??
Those charts look very similar.
The boundary layer draped across the central Arctic is almost identical in the same position as it was on the older forecast.
Don't get hung up on the orientation of the ridge Being slightly different.

Thank you Frivolousz and Aslan for the explanations.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2237 on: June 20, 2019, 09:11:37 PM »
The euro Is amazing
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2238 on: June 20, 2019, 09:14:33 PM »
Just for the record, I was asking a question, not making a point.  Pedantry would imply I was imparting knowledge.  I was seeking it.

Indeed, I am the one being pedantic  :)

Just for the record, I was asking a question, not making a point.  Pedantry would imply I was imparting knowledge.  I was seeking it.   Later edit below

My apologies, aperson.  Because of the general tone of some recent posts, I was disposed to taking your remark as being personal to me, and I wrote hastily.  As I reread your message I now see that was not the case at all, and that you are simply providing expert knowledge, which was what I was asking for, so THANK YOU!   

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2239 on: June 20, 2019, 09:19:47 PM »
Hi Pagophilus, Thanks for playing devil's advocate. That's how we all learn and how science works. I also appreciate that despite our differences on this forum we find a way to learn together. The world could use a lot more of that, so let's model it shall we.  ;)

In regards to the Kara, i used the phrase "literally screwed" partly because the whole region looks to be screwed in a wind spiral quite persistently over the next 5-6 days. From my perspective, it's hard to know what will be worse: The higher wind and rain in the Kara or the lower wind/moisture and higher heat/net insolation effecting ESS, etc.

The ice in the Kara does not look particularly robust and there is plenty of open ocean around the pack, and decent space between the floes, to allow waves and Ekman pumping do their work in melting the ice. Are you assuming that the waters are cold in the Kara or do you have data to back that up? Lack of melt there can also mean that there is less cool fresh water about. Also with this much persistent wind one should factor in the heat below the surface that can make its way up.

In the end the melting will have the final say and the arctic will school us all.

Thank you for your collegial, open-minded and genial response, IceShieldz.  Much appreciated. 

I must confess that my assessment of the Kara being slow to melt out and the Kara's waters being relatively cold was based largely on looking at the AMSR2 maps (including year on year) and on looking at Worldview, Nullschool 'data' and at the information on the Kara sea ice area and extent provided by Gerontocrat.  It was more a general impression which seemed to point in the same general direction, a relatively cool Kara (and particularly so when compared to the Laptev next to it). 

What I did was go back to Gerontocrat's most recent area graph of the Kara on June 9, then sum up area losses and gains (net -113K loss) from that date to June 19 and extrapolate his line from there.  On June 9, the Kara was pretty much hugging its decadal (2010's) average line for area. The area loss since June 9 has taken the Kara plot somewhat above (about 40k) above that 2010s decadal average plot as of June 19.  So there is at least some indirect evidence there of the Kara losing ice more slowly, with the further possible inference being the Kara's surface waters may be relatively cool.  I am of course aware of the issues with 'trusting' area at this time of year, but the Kara has largely been in cloud of late, and its ice is pretty white, so I think area is fairly trustworthy in this instance.  (On a side note, I would really like to learn how I can obtain direct measurements of the sea surface temperature in the Arctic.)

Putting aside that devil's advocate cap for a moment, as you say, surface mixing, with warmer waters rising to the surface may well occur, and that could be a huge factor for the Kara ice.  I guess that would depend a lot on wind speeds and duration. 

If you got to the end of this response, thanks for reading.  As you say, the arctic will probably school us all !


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2240 on: June 20, 2019, 09:36:59 PM »
Thank you, Jim

My pleasure.

Quote
It just happens that those graphs are utterly insufficient to properly estimate amount of ice there.

I didn't say that it was. I was merely providing a close up look at some data relevant to the discussion.

Here are some of the other graphs and maps that I look at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2241 on: June 20, 2019, 10:18:06 PM »
Kara Area (to 19 June), Volume (to 15 June), Thickness (to 15 June)  attached.

Slow beginnings.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2242 on: June 20, 2019, 11:17:48 PM »
Kara Area (to 19 June), Volume (to 15 June), Thickness (to 15 June)  attached.
Slow beginnings.

Thank you !

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2243 on: June 20, 2019, 11:29:44 PM »
You guys are arguing over miniscule measurements.

+1

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2244 on: June 20, 2019, 11:44:35 PM »
It's really hard for me to understand how we don't have many Moorings on the Russian side continental shelf.


It's so shallow there's almost no turbulence it's almost never Disturbed.


The lack there of is ridiculous.

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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2245 on: June 21, 2019, 12:05:37 AM »
It doesn't matter all that much at this stage, but perhaps just a little: It seems NH snow cover is lowest on record at the moment, but it's difficult to see do to the graph's layout. It's more visible on the graph for North America.
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2246 on: June 21, 2019, 12:09:36 AM »
Ah, there we go, beautiful, gerontocrat! So do my eyes decieve me, or do i see "amount" of ice ain't going anywhere one could name "up", on 2nd of those beautiful graphs? I'd say well within known error margins, that hiccup. So perhaps reaction of some forumites to the above "more ice in general in that location" is simply because that's one statement which goes against what those folks know must have been happening there? Like, June 20th, "more ice somewhere in NH" sounding... Silly? ;)
Hi, F.Tnioli.   May I respectfully suggest looking closely at the three graph plots provided by Gerontocrat.  The area plot appears to extend until June 20, whereas the volume and thickness plot both end in the middle of the month, say June 15.  I had to look closely to spot it -- it is easily missed as the initial assumption is they all end at the same date.  But that means 5 days are missing from the volume plot and therefore we can't say that the volume plot does not go up with the area.  So at best we are left in a rather gray area from this information, and to my mind neither your hypothesis or Michael H's is conclusively supported -- although on balance, given what I have seen I would lean in Michael's direction. 

Personally, I would think that volume will go up over those five days, but not as steeply as area as the ice will probably get melted from below as it spreads into the warmer waters of the southern Beaufort.  I believe the Piomas model accounts for this and about fourteen other gazillion factors.  Maybe with time and further data the picture will become clearer.  :)
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 12:19:30 AM by Pagophilus »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2247 on: June 21, 2019, 12:45:20 AM »
My posting said the dates. June 15 for vol and thickness june 19 for area. Merely required the ability to read.
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2248 on: June 21, 2019, 01:06:18 AM »
It's really hard for me to understand how we don't have many Moorings on the Russian side continental shelf.


It's so shallow there's almost no turbulence it's almost never Disturbed.


The lack there of is ridiculous.
Unless they dont want to ...

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2249 on: June 21, 2019, 01:07:33 AM »
It doesn't matter all that much at this stage, but perhaps just a little: It seems NH snow cover is lowest on record at the moment, but it's difficult to see do to the graph's layout. It's more visible on the graph for North America.

It would fit the correlation between NH snow cover in May/June and September extent