Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 1193013 times)

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2300 on: June 22, 2019, 09:19:14 AM »
EURO seems to show tha Laptev sea, ESS sea ice is torching in D1-D5 while Bering high pressure ridge may form in D8-D10. It is may attributed to the Pacific high pressure will jump northward after 10 days, heating the SST of north pacific ocean. Admittedly, there will be numerical error, but if the trend is approximately right and the high pressure is still torching the arctic from Russia side to pacific side, that will be a catastrophy.

ArcticMelt2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 459
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2301 on: June 22, 2019, 09:21:31 AM »
In the Vilkitsky Strait, fast ice completely collapsed. Probably this year the Northeast Pass is freeing a record early, just like the coast of Alaska.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2302 on: June 22, 2019, 10:28:33 AM »
The models seems to be easing somewhat wrt monster high in the later part of forecast period. Still very bad but not as bad as previous runs.

Sambuccu

  • New ice
  • Posts: 24
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2303 on: June 22, 2019, 12:51:31 PM »
Fires south of the Laptev Sea are growing, and the high will draw smoke north over the next couple of days.

Indeed, apparently important smoke over Laptev sea today.


Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2304 on: June 22, 2019, 01:51:21 PM »
The models seems to be easing somewhat wrt monster high in the later part of forecast period. Still very bad but not as bad as previous runs.
Those lows over CAA going and coming back ruining the party huh?
The heat over Asian side is immediate, though.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2305 on: June 22, 2019, 02:23:54 PM »
The landfast ice in ESS and Laptev is showing clear signs of breaking up - large cracks appearing practically overnight.

The degree to which the ice pack in the ESS is opening up is also impressive.  A week ago what was mostly visible was the crack between the fast ice and the pack ice.  Now much of the pack ice is looking in a delicate state.  This pack ice in this region is under dual stresses: relentless insolation and warm winds have undoubtedly produced a lot of melting, and the pack ice as a whole has been nudging towards the North American side.
Images from Worldview, today, contrast tweaked on Photoshop to reveal more detail.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2019, 04:47:12 PM by Pagophilus »

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2306 on: June 22, 2019, 02:35:36 PM »
Fires south of the Laptev Sea are growing, and the high will draw smoke north over the next couple of days.

I've attached a gif (click to animate)of june 19 and 21(20th obscured by cloud) showing the northernmost fires, quite small on the 19th, but now producing a huge pall of smoke or smog. And the Copernicus/WindyTV PM2.5 particle forecast for tomorrow, which I'll assume is a proxy for smoke in the far north

Thank you for the animation. I would like to be clearer in my own mind as to what these fires mean for the ice.  My interpretation is that if the smoke drifts over the Arctic, then the smoke acts rather like clouds and shields the ice from solar radiation.  But if there is rain or snow or something else that brings the soot from the fires onto the ice, then that darkens the ice and top melting might then proceed more rapidly.  So a lot depends on whether the smoke stays aloft or settles  Am I missing something? 

If I have it right, then in these sunny conditions, then it would seem reasonable to assume that this smoke over the Laptev is helping preserve the ice.  Happy to be corrected!

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 513
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2307 on: June 22, 2019, 02:45:02 PM »
If I have it right, then in these sunny conditions, then it would seem reasonable to assume that this smoke over the Laptev is helping preserve the ice.  Happy to be corrected!
I think that on the Laptev, you might be right. But the smoke is entering the Arctic and there are other places with low pressure. At the end, the smoke will make the ice darker on some place in the Arctic.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2308 on: June 22, 2019, 04:30:06 PM »
In the light of all the recent weather predictions, for my own purposes I have to make sense of what actually happens as those predictions unfold.  So forgive me if the following seems redundant to some of you... it may not to seem so to less experienced people like myself. Lots of lacunae in my knowledge, happy to be corrected.

Images are from Worldview, unaltered.
1.  The low pressure system remains parked over Novya Zemlya and is forecast to continue to do so.  Ice will continue, presumably, to get dragged in an arc out of the Kara and towards the Barentz.
2.  For fun.  The bluest ice I can remember seeing on Worldview, fast ice in the northern Kara coast. Closeup below the first image.  I am guessing the ice here is melting like crazy and forming massive meltponds in the process.
3.  I presume this is the warm, humid ridge being drawn from Siberia by the joint action of the low on the right of picture and high on the left of picture.  Should be interesting to see how it develops and what it does.  If the clouds are telling the story, it looks like it is just in the process of forming over the Arctic ice.
4. High pressure area.  Lots of solar insolation over this summer solstice.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2019, 04:44:37 PM by Pagophilus »

aslan

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2309 on: June 22, 2019, 05:09:09 PM »
The warmth on the Pacific side is extreme. And this warmth is pouring into Beaufort. Locally SSTs are up to 10 °C ! I like the smell of a water bath in the morning...

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 504
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 179
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2310 on: June 22, 2019, 05:26:54 PM »
Included is a 20 hour loop showing the impressive ridge.  As energy rotates around it, it will go through several anticyclonic wave breaks (evident already).  These often give numerical models difficulty.  As they "break" they generally result in a cyclone downstream, in this case the Beaufort/CAA region.   Again, very hard to predict, and should give anyone pause about buying model runs beyond hour 120, and temper expectations.  Just my two cents.  I'll go back to simple observations of interesting features.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=1&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_m08&x=13964.6669921875&y=16288.22265625
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

romett1

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 221
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2311 on: June 22, 2019, 07:14:15 PM »
Kotelny Island next week is really hot - this is forecast for June 27 (Windy.com).

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2312 on: June 22, 2019, 08:08:09 PM »
Included is a 20 hour loop showing the impressive ridge.  As energy rotates around it, it will go through several anticyclonic wave breaks (evident already).  These often give numerical models difficulty.  As they "break" they generally result in a cyclone downstream, in this case the Beaufort/CAA region.   Again, very hard to predict, and should give anyone pause about buying model runs beyond hour 120, and temper expectations.  Just my two cents.  I'll go back to simple observations of interesting features.

Thanks for this.  Helps me understand that the ridge is curving to its right, among other things.  And a great site.
An additional tidbit.... a very large crack has just developed in the already-cratering Laptev fast ice.  Just E of the Lena Delta.

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1555
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 756
  • Likes Given: 156
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2313 on: June 22, 2019, 08:10:48 PM »
ascat with unihamburg amsr2uhh overlaid at 70% transparency and 100% ice (white) set to transparent, jun1-21.
Quite a mobile pack with a swift, probably temporary, change of direction in ice heading for fram export over the last two days. The caa-cab crack has snapped shut, maybe also temporarily.
used gimp optimisation to reduce size from 6.2 to 3.8MB. Gimp deoptimise can be used to restore individual frames

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2314 on: June 22, 2019, 08:30:58 PM »
The caa-cab crack has snapped shut

And north of Greenland, it opened again. I have the feeling due to the intense crackification it just moves along with the tides.

ArcticMelt2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 459
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2315 on: June 22, 2019, 08:38:26 PM »
Kotelny Island next week is really hot - this is forecast for June 27 (Windy.com).

Most likely this summer in the Arctic will be the worst.

During the catastrophe of 2007 (the warmest summer in the Arctic until this year), the main heat wave occurred on Wrangel Island:



Now everything is much worse. Waves of heat go into the Laptev Sea - the most vulnerable spot of the Arctic. This is where ice drift to the Central Arctic begins:



Over the next three months, the warm water will divide the Arctic in half:

« Last Edit: June 22, 2019, 08:53:21 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2316 on: June 22, 2019, 08:49:22 PM »
The Arctic is clearing out the the upper level ridge.

Adding to it very warm and decent winds coming around the base of the ridge.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2317 on: June 22, 2019, 08:56:03 PM »
Lena Delta, 02.06. to 22.06 via Sentinel.

(click to play)

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2318 on: June 22, 2019, 09:19:39 PM »
ascat with unihamburg amsr2uhh overlaid at 70% transparency and 100% ice (white) set to transparent, jun1-21.

Lena Delta, 02.06. to 22.06 via Sentinel.

Thank you both. Very helpful and beautiful animations.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2319 on: June 22, 2019, 09:28:11 PM »
ascat with unihamburg amsr2uhh overlaid at 70% transparency and 100% ice (white) set to transparent, jun1-21.

Lena Delta, 02.06. to 22.06 via Sentinel.

Thank you both. Very helpful and beautiful animations.

+1     Museum quality art.

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 745
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2320 on: June 22, 2019, 09:33:33 PM »
The latest 500mb forecast maps show less potential for destruction of sea ice than the forecast maps a few days back. The forecast Arctic ocean covering hot high pressure looks like it will not materialize now.

However, we must keep in mind that this round of forecasts is prone to error, too. Moreover, what has materialized in the last week has broken up ice piled up on Siberian islands, ice that PIOMAS indicated was quite thick. As is typically the case, the worst case scenario forecasts do not materialize, but what we see is the continued long term progression of warming in the Arctic with many short term perturbations.

We're now in the period where the ice extent and area curves have tracked over a narrow range for the past decade. Those tightly packed curves reflect the amount of energy needed to melt the ice in the Arctic ocean proper and the "Mediterranean"  Arctic seas.

The condition of the ice continues to look very bad, and the weather forecasts are bad for the ice, with hope for more favorable weather in the beginning of July. We'll see. Forecasts of more than 5 days don't appear to be consistent now.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2321 on: June 22, 2019, 09:51:06 PM »
Thanks a lot, Pagophilus, Petm!  :D

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2322 on: June 22, 2019, 10:20:17 PM »
In the light of all the recent weather predictions, for my own purposes I have to make sense of what actually happens as those predictions unfold....

Looking at your images and thinking about current and up-coming weather conditions, I'll be surprised if the Kara isn't pretty much melted out completely by mid July, and possibly the Laptev as well.

I may rethink my estimate of when the Northern Sea route may open.
This space for Rent.

epiphyte

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 383
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2323 on: June 22, 2019, 10:42:37 PM »

 [...] Moreover, what has materialized in the last week has broken up ice piled up on Siberian islands, ice that PIOMAS indicated was quite thick.


PIOMAS thickness <= 1M in Summer is like the words of a Joni Mitchell song...

"You don't know what you've got till it's gone"

 

RoxTheGeologist

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 470
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 130
  • Likes Given: 98
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2324 on: June 22, 2019, 10:59:01 PM »

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 504
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 179
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2326 on: June 23, 2019, 12:45:33 AM »
The new crack in the Laptev fast ice is way bigger than I thought it was.  It extends about 250 km N, starting at the Laptev coast.  The crack is narrow in its northernmost reaches, so I guess it may close up again and refreeze.  But if it does open up, then a lot of Laptev fast ice is about to come loose from its moorings. 

You have to look closely to see the crack.  It hasn't reached the Laptev bite and open ocean water yet but perhaps that is not far away (see second and third images).  I am guessing that this huge chunk of fast ice will rapidly fracture further if it does break off.  It will be hemmed in on three sides by land and ice, so it may not be going anywhere in a hurry. 

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2327 on: June 23, 2019, 01:09:56 AM »
Smoke is streaming north over the shattering fast ice of the southern Laptev sea. Land to the coast in this region won't drop under 20 C for the next few days according to EC/Windy today, with max temps in the high 20s for most of the week ahead. I've also attached a closer view of the fires around 69.5, 134.5 I  highlighted yesterday. There is some green in the area, but it seems a long way north for forest, is it peatland on fire?
« Last Edit: June 23, 2019, 01:17:03 AM by subgeometer »

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2328 on: June 23, 2019, 01:14:57 AM »
Fires south of the Laptev Sea are growing, and the high will draw smoke north over the next couple of days.

I've attached a gif (click to animate)of june 19 and 21(20th obscured by cloud) showing the northernmost fires, quite small on the 19th, but now producing a huge pall of smoke or smog. And the Copernicus/WindyTV PM2.5 particle forecast for tomorrow, which I'll assume is a proxy for smoke in the far north

Thank you for the animation. I would like to be clearer in my own mind as to what these fires mean for the ice.  My interpretation is that if the smoke drifts over the Arctic, then the smoke acts rather like clouds and shields the ice from solar radiation.  But if there is rain or snow or something else that brings the soot from the fires onto the ice, then that darkens the ice and top melting might then proceed more rapidly.  So a lot depends on whether the smoke stays aloft or settles  Am I missing something? 

If I have it right, then in these sunny conditions, then it would seem reasonable to assume that this smoke over the Laptev is helping preserve the ice.  Happy to be corrected!

Hazy cloud isn't the greatest at keeping insolation out, in fact it holds infrared in. The worst effect of smoke is soot and ash landing on the ice and darkening it, priming it for enhanced melt from insolation

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2329 on: June 23, 2019, 03:10:02 AM »
In addition to the plumes of moisture entering from Asia this week, next week may bring an even larger mass from the Pacific.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2330 on: June 23, 2019, 03:17:03 AM »
We well have to wait and see about the weather next week.

The 18Z gfs is totally different than 12z.

Who knows which is right. But that is a huge change from run to run.  Sad because for a while there.  They're really was run to run consistentcy.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Csnavywx

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 520
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2331 on: June 23, 2019, 03:19:59 AM »
I don't think it should be too surprising that we're losing area/extent only at a moderate pace. The Beaufort-Chukchi front opened early, was well retreated and most of the heat has been hitting places where the ice is thicker and that takes time to melt through and break up. The Beaufort sector will still melt out in July (as it did last year in cloudy and cooler conditions) and now it appears there will be a significant portion of the ESS-Laptev and part of the CAB that will follow.

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2332 on: June 23, 2019, 03:44:36 AM »
We well have to wait and see about the weather next week.

The 18Z gfs is totally different than 12z.

Who knows which is right. But that is a huge change from run to run.  Sad because for a while there.  They're really was run to run consistentcy.

The euro seems quite different from D8-D10. tThe CAA is dominant by low pressure.

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 745
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2333 on: June 23, 2019, 04:13:17 AM »
At this time I have no confidence in any of the models beyond 5 days. When they show inconsistencies like they are doing now, the progs over 120 hours are unreliable. Blocking highs, which we are dealing with now, are perhaps the models' biggest challenge.

This year the NH weather has been ruled by blocks so it's possible that this is the one situation where the GFS might be getting it right and the ECMWF getting it wrong. No doubt, the European model is better, but not always. If you want to send your head spinning make a potential vorticity animation at Tropical Tidbits.  The anticyclonic warm air bubbles that swing up from southern Eurasia towards the pole have been killing the sea ice in the Siberian shores. The PV animations show how weird the atmospheric circulation pattern has been. Persistent blocking patterns that followed stratospheric disruptions have caused very weird weather in north America and very bad weather for sea ice.

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2334 on: June 23, 2019, 04:41:31 AM »
At this time I have no confidence in any of the models beyond 5 days. When they show inconsistencies like they are doing now, the progs over 120 hours are unreliable. Blocking highs, which we are dealing with now, are perhaps the models' biggest challenge.

This year the NH weather has been ruled by blocks so it's possible that this is the one situation where the GFS might be getting it right and the ECMWF getting it wrong. No doubt, the European model is better, but not always. If you want to send your head spinning make a potential vorticity animation at Tropical Tidbits.  The anticyclonic warm air bubbles that swing up from southern Eurasia towards the pole have been killing the sea ice in the Siberian shores. The PV animations show how weird the atmospheric circulation pattern has been. Persistent blocking patterns that followed stratospheric disruptions have caused very weird weather in north America and very bad weather for sea ice.

Yes, I agree with you. The heat from russia side mainly comes from indian ocean. however, if you look at the recent NOAA global SST. The positive anomaly of indian ocean is weaken. The postive anomaly of north pacific ocean along the west coast of North Amercan seems intensifying. I think the weather pattern will change. The polar vortex will return to the pole(maybe not). But it will not last long. The Alaska, north canadian will be dominated by high pressure. The ice will be torched in July. The whole ice will be pushed to the atlantic side under this pattern.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2335 on: June 23, 2019, 05:22:21 AM »
The euro ensembles are a lot more ridgy than the op.


But who knows at this point.  The gfs did an about face back to mega ridge.

I'm the meantime the most widespread sunshine coupled with warm mid level temps is dominating.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2336 on: June 23, 2019, 06:18:47 AM »
I don't think it should be too surprising that we're losing area/extent only at a moderate pace. The Beaufort-Chukchi front opened early, was well retreated and most of the heat has been hitting places where the ice is thicker and that takes time to melt through and break up. The Beaufort sector will still melt out in July (as it did last year in cloudy and cooler conditions) and now it appears there will be a significant portion of the ESS-Laptev and part of the CAB that will follow.

The ess/laptev/chuchki/pacific side CAB has really taken a beating.

If there isn't a break in the ridging the pole could be ice free this September.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2337 on: June 23, 2019, 07:27:09 AM »

Polynya = cracks?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynya

Open water with sea ice around it? When I used the term that's what I meant - maybe I should stick to English   ;D

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2338 on: June 23, 2019, 07:44:37 AM »
JAXA is down 180K km2 over the past 2 days ending a week of limited losses in extent. All of the gap and more with 2016 can be accounted for by high extents in Greenland and Barents Seas, ice exported to doom. The Kara Sea is also high, as is the CAB itself, because the exits to the Atlantic are kept loaded by the northerly winds;

The Beaufort sea is still very low for the date, despite the recent uptick. The Chukchi and Laptev seas are also around record low. The Siberian coastal ice will collapse within days, the next 4 days are a blowtorch

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 371
  • Likes Given: 261
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2339 on: June 23, 2019, 08:01:18 AM »
June 18-22.

2018.

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2340 on: June 23, 2019, 09:07:57 AM »
The euro ensemble is still chaotic after day5, but it shows tendency that the polar vortex collapse. So the arctic will probably experience another 10days torching. The insolation of 90N will gradually decrease after July 15th. The insolation of 60N will gradually decrease after July 31st. As you can see, the melt pond is worse than 2012 up to now and the melt momentum is on. After the polar vortex collapse, even if there is no extremely heat wave intruding, the average temperature of whole arctic will increase pushing the ice in a dangerous state. However, above analysis is based on the collapse of polar vortex. Let us see who predict better euro or GFS

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2341 on: June 23, 2019, 09:23:01 AM »
Arctic wide sea ice area is now lowest for the date in the high resolution AMSR2 record:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-23

And if you exclude the peripheral seas the picture is much more stark:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6581
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1530
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2342 on: June 23, 2019, 09:42:42 AM »

Polynya = cracks?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynya

Open water with sea ice around it? When I used the term that's what I meant - maybe I should stick to English   ;D
Tor Bejnar posted this on the SMOS thread

I don't recall ever seeing the term "flaw polynya" before, and it took some searching to find a definition, finally (from here):
Quote
flaw polynyas (band-like ice-free areas), which form
simultaneously with land-fast ice in November. Flaw polynyas
reach tens of kilometres in width and migrate out of fast ice
hundreds of kilometres northward (Smolyanitsky et al., 2003),
and here
Quote
A polynya is defined as any nonlinear-shaped area of open water and/or sea ice cover < 30 cm thick enclosed by a much thicker ice cover (WMO 1970). It can be restricted on one side by a coast, terrned shore polynyas, or bounded by fast ice, termed flaw polynyas.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2343 on: June 23, 2019, 11:46:12 AM »
Today's current Worldview Terra 3-6-7 mosaic of the North Pole for future reference:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

ArcticMelt2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 459
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2344 on: June 23, 2019, 11:55:26 AM »
The scale of melting significantly exceeded 2012.

ArcticMelt2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 459
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2345 on: June 23, 2019, 11:58:28 AM »
Melting at June 22, 2012.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2346 on: June 23, 2019, 12:00:41 PM »
Also for future reference, the crackification around the pole.

(Click to play)

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2347 on: June 23, 2019, 12:01:44 PM »
Jim Hunt, North Pole experienced similar conditions during a couple of days during the last third of May, i.e May 20 and 28-31. At least if you only compare the mosaic of Terra 3-6-7.

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 886
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 254
  • Likes Given: 217
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2348 on: June 23, 2019, 12:10:02 PM »
Today's current Worldview Terra 3-6-7 mosaic of the North Pole for future reference:
[/quote]

 Hi Jim .. future reference ? .. for when folk reminisce about an ice covered pole ? b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

iceman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2349 on: June 23, 2019, 12:14:16 PM »
In addition to the plumes of moisture entering from Asia this week, next week may bring an even larger mass from the Pacific.

Forecast still a little wobbly, but if it occurs that would be the first major incursion of heat from the Bering bathtub I've seen in the last few months.