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BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2450 on: June 25, 2019, 10:10:23 AM »
A few points about 2007 vs 2019.

Yes, the ESS in 2007 was in comparable or worse condition on this date. However...

On average the ice in 2007 was much thicker than now. Various studies argued after 2012 that 2007 was a significantly "better" melt year, but that the ice was in much worse condition at the start of the melt season in 2012.

The Laptev 'bite' has significantly more open water north of the New Siberian Islands this year than in 2007, which will help to melt out the northern ESS from the west.

In 2007 the main ice pack reached all the way to the Alaskan coast on this date, stretching eastwards from Point Barrow for a few hundreds miles. The water in the Chukchi was also much less warm.

Finally, this year there is currently stronger melting taking place along the whole Siberian coast, particularly by the Lena Delta. So this year is catching up in the areas that it is behind, and getting further ahead in the areas where it is ahead.

My guess is that 2019 is heading for a bottom 2 finish, mainly because of current volume, current melt momentum and the exceptionally warm waters on the Pacific side, supported by steady Fram and Nares export. But the central pack is still being protected on the Barents flank, and the eastern Beaufort/Lincoln remain cool.

Time, as ever, will tell. I can guarantee that none of us will be entirely right.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2451 on: June 25, 2019, 11:42:45 AM »

The only explanation could be the stronger winds in 2007 (or their better direction).

Jinlun eta al

According to this an unusually high amount of warm water entered from Pacific driven by strong southerly winds.  It is estimated this could have accounted for 500k of ice melted.  Other factors I've seen blamed for 2007 are the heat and solar radiation from high pressure over Beaufort, and a pulse of warm subsurface water from the Atlantic.  I think I saw elsewhere that Atlantic usually counts for much more warm water imported into the Arctic than Pacific, but Pacific is more variable. 

The way that the ice has retreated in Chukchi and towards Beaufort concerns me and I speculate maybe there is even more warm water entering than 2007, but more going towards Beaufort and less going towards ESS.  As far as I can tell the melting weather over Chukchi hasn't been particularly spectacular, but maybe its just a case of early start due to Bering conditions in winter.
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JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2452 on: June 25, 2019, 11:47:15 AM »
As mentioned in the RAMMB slider thread, under clear skies, the shortwave IR bands I4, M12, and M13 are sensitive to surface temperatures and have the ability to detect sea surface temperatures.

Attached is a 32 hour loop (June 23, 16Z to 25, 4Z)  of the Laptev, with discharge from the Lena river seen spreading from the lower left corner.

Band I4 with band M13 50% overlay, this helps hide the clouds somewhat.  Contrast  enhanced and lightened for detail.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=5&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B1%5D=0.5&hidden%5B0%5D=0&hidden%5B1%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_i04&p%5B1%5D=band_m13&x=11720.013671875&y=16441.4443359375
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2453 on: June 25, 2019, 12:02:51 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2454 on: June 25, 2019, 12:58:59 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

Yeah. Top 1-2 seems in the cards.

If Vegas were offering odds on beating 2012, I'd say 3-1 or 7-2 would be a fair price at this point.

pauldry600

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2455 on: June 25, 2019, 01:00:20 PM »
I think it has no chance.

5th or 6th IMO


Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2456 on: June 25, 2019, 02:36:36 PM »
So, looking at developments and projections for the 2019, nothing should be surprising in terms of our background understanding of AGW.

Most people here expect a BOE at some point before 2050 and new records to fall along the way. We can't predict records in advance, but they shouldn't be too shocking if and when they do occur.

I thought it would be interesting to look at what we're seeing this year and allocate the root causes of what we're seeing between weather (made more likely by AGW) and the chronic causes of AGW.

The weather variation is somewhat random. I can't recall a single day in the entire season with a zero or negative temperature anomaly in the Arctic. We can acknowledge that AGW has elevated the baseline, but the absence of any cold days is still a bit of a fluke.

Heatwaves as we are seeing in Siberia are weather. Much more likely with AGW, but not a given in any year.
. The same with high and low pressure systems. .

The chronic factors of AGW are include the warming oceans in the Atlantic and Pacific intruding on the Arctic. The Pacific intrusion is quite pronounced this year.

The fact that we started the year with a low max is now becoming commonplace. The signature impact of AGW is heat retention and this is most apparent in the Arctic winter. The last 5 years are among the 6 lowest maximums. That's chronic AGW at work.

I really wouldn't know how to characterize export in terms of chronic v. weather. I have some sense that Nares remaining open is tied in with the low winter max, but the sample size is too small.

That's all. Just a brief effort to put what we're seeing this year into the context of the era we're living in.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2457 on: June 25, 2019, 03:08:11 PM »
Apropos of  not a lot, here is the NSIDC Concentration map for 24 June.

I love this map. Ok, so the pixels are big, but the colouring is simply super in giving the impression of what is going on. Much easier on the eye than the far more detailed (and accurate) AMSR2 images from the University of Bremen. The orange average line is wunderbar as well.

And one has to say, the Arctic sea ice is looking in a bit of a mess.

https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.png
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2458 on: June 25, 2019, 03:21:23 PM »
June 20-24.

2018.


Kara Sea ice is being blown away...

Thanks, Aluminium. your animations are so clear and so valuable.  For me, one thing that is striking on your latest animation (reply #2447) is what I referenced a few days ago...  The persistent low centered stubbornly over Novya Zemlya has winds ideally oriented to scoop ice out of the Kara Sea, and indeed you can see this clearly happening on your animation.  It is, I believe, really significant, because it empties the Kara far more quickly of ice than melting would, even under these conditions. 

This pattern looks set to continue... the July 27 forecast of surface winds (as of today) on Nullschool shows the low sticking to its post ('1' on screenshot below).  After that the low is forecast to gradually dissipate, but how much more harm is it going to do in the Kara?  The floes already have momentum.  There is also flash melting out of ice in the South Kara.  Disturbing... if present conditions continue, the Kara could be looking fairly empty of ice in just five more days... 

And of course there are those forecast strong winds that will presumably rip ice through the Fram Strait coming up ('2' on the screenshot).  It is not looking good...
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 03:48:24 PM by Pagophilus »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2459 on: June 25, 2019, 03:28:42 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

Yes, it is still in the running, but could also finish 6th or lower.  Looking back at recent years, the sea ice minimum is determined largely by the melt occurring after the solstice.  There appears to be no correlation between the melt that has occurred from the maximum to the solstice and the ensuing minimum.  The weather from now until the autumnal equinox will be the decider.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2460 on: June 25, 2019, 03:40:48 PM »
Those open areas in 2007 are way South.



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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2461 on: June 25, 2019, 03:48:40 PM »
Quote
steady Fram and Nares export
Actually, export via Nares Strait has been near 'squat' for two weeks.  Images from DMI Sentinel - June 15, 19 and 24.  There is a poll about the large floe "She" that sits at the top of these three frames (half cut off).
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2462 on: June 25, 2019, 03:57:32 PM »
I think it has no chance.

5th or 6th IMO

In what criteria?

Thats almost impossible at this point.

The weather would have to abruptly go to cloudy and cold and not change back.

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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2463 on: June 25, 2019, 04:09:45 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

Yes, it is still in the running, but could also finish 6th or lower.  Looking back at recent years, the sea ice minimum is determined largely by the melt occurring after the solstice.  There appears to be no correlation between the melt that has occurred from the maximum to the solstice and the ensuing minimum.  The weather from now until the autumnal equinox will be the decider.
..

It is of course true that the final result will be based upon melt in the 2nd half of the season.

But to ignore the advantages 2019 has entering the 2nd half would be misleading. It would take a miraculous weather distribution to curb the current momentum and finish outside the top 5.

The installed base of ocean heat, open water and low thickness combined with the present forecast is a huge head start.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2464 on: June 25, 2019, 04:17:09 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

I wish I had not drunk a coffee just before viewing A-team's animation.  OMG.  Thank you, oren and A-team for this big picture perspective, even though it is pretty darn scary.
 
A question... the whiter ice, which I assume is multiyear, appears to 'flash out' to become grayer in the last couple of frames on A-team's animation.  Why is that?  Did it pass a thinness threshold because of this year's melting?

And a point (a drum I have been banging, but maybe you will forgive me)... I believe you can see the wind-driven emptying of the ice of the north Kara Sea occurring in the last two frames...
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 04:23:29 PM by Pagophilus »

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2465 on: June 25, 2019, 04:36:35 PM »
Tor, I've been following the Nares thread, so I know there hasn't been much export going on there recently. But I meant steady export over the season as a whole. As usual there have been occasional lulls and even reversals in both Fram and Nares export.

Anway, speaking of export, the setup for the coming week looks ideal/terrible for maximising Fram export. A big high over Greenland and a low over the Barents Sea, with the isobars lining up close together over Fram. It will be interesting to see how it pans out. It could increase extent in the Greenland and Barents Seas in the short term, but in the medium term it would be very bad for the ice in the CAB.

Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2466 on: June 25, 2019, 04:57:15 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

Yes, it is still in the running, but could also finish 6th or lower.  Looking back at recent years, the sea ice minimum is determined largely by the melt occurring after the solstice.  There appears to be no correlation between the melt that has occurred from the maximum to the solstice and the ensuing minimum.  The weather from now until the autumnal equinox will be the decider.
..

It is of course true that the final result will be based upon melt in the 2nd half of the season.

But to ignore the advantages 2019 has entering the 2nd half would be misleading. It would take a miraculous weather distribution to curb the current momentum and finish outside the top 5.

The installed base of ocean heat, open water and low thickness combined with the present forecast is a huge head start.

Not really.  Compared to recent years, the melt over the first half of the season is fairly average.  This season got off to a fast start, with one of the highest 30-day melts in the satellite era (second to 1997).  However, that rate has curtailed over the past 60 days, such that the current trend is on the low side (only two years since the 2007 low have been less).  Some have contributed that to the thicker ice behind more difficult to melt.  Sea ice extent is currently 6th lowest at NSIDC, and if the pace continues, would finish 8th.  I think that weather conditions would need to deteriorate further to finish in the top 5 (at least in the NSIDC data set).

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2467 on: June 25, 2019, 04:58:35 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

Yes, it is still in the running, but could also finish 6th or lower.  Looking back at recent years, the sea ice minimum is determined largely by the melt occurring after the solstice.  There appears to be no correlation between the melt that has occurred from the maximum to the solstice and the ensuing minimum.  The weather from now until the autumnal equinox will be the decider.
..

It is of course true that the final result will be based upon melt in the 2nd half of the season.

But to ignore the advantages 2019 has entering the 2nd half would be misleading. It would take a miraculous weather distribution to curb the current momentum and finish outside the top 5.

The installed base of ocean heat, open water and low thickness combined with the present forecast is a huge head start.

Not really.  Compared to recent years, the melt over the first half of the season is fairly average.  This season got off to a fast start, with one of the highest 30-day melts in the satellite era (second to 1997).  However, that rate has curtailed over the past 60 days, such that the current trend is on the low side (only two years since the 2007 low have been less).  Some have contributed that to the thicker ice behind more difficult to melt.  Sea ice extent is currently 6th lowest at NSIDC, and if the pace continues, would finish 8th.  I think that weather conditions would need to deteriorate further to finish in the top 5 (at least in the NSIDC data set).
Blah blah blah volume was #2 as of 6/15 and will probably be #1 by 7/1

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2468 on: June 25, 2019, 05:06:08 PM »
indeed bbr ... a top 2 finish with open ocean at the pole has been the most likely outcome since March . The 'average melt will continue until those who cannot see what is happening with their own eyes are asking 'what happened ? '  .b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2469 on: June 25, 2019, 05:08:01 PM »
indeed bbr ... a top 2 finish with open ocean at the pole has been the most likely outcome since March . The 'average melt will continue until those who cannot see what is happening with their own eyes are asking 'what happened ? '  .b.c.
People drone on and on about how 2012 was special because it had the epic June melt ponding and volume drop... guess what... we are seeing a worse version of that happening in 2019! It won't matter because even after the 7/1 #s are out for PIOMAS, should the very weak peripheral ice that is going to melt out anyways still be intact, they will still be saying "but extent is in 4th!" while weatherdude88 posts numbers pertaining solely to regions of highest coincidental extent or area.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2470 on: June 25, 2019, 05:08:49 PM »
My posting said the dates. June 15 for vol and thickness june 19 for area. Merely required the ability to read.
So did the graphs in the Jim's post, which clearly show the growth starting ~10th June, not 15th. So, area and extent between ~10th and 15th are shown as sharply increasing, while volume is not. Oh and Jim, i did not say you said those graphs would suffice, too. It was somebody else who seemingly did such a judgement well before you posted, you know. Certainly your post only helped to make things clearer, in my opinion, so yep, i'm just thankful.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2471 on: June 25, 2019, 05:11:20 PM »
2019 has blown 2012 completely out of the water post 6/15 PIOMAS data. 2012 had a PV over the pole that still had some minor integrity. In 2019 the PV had relocated to the Kara and the PAC Hadley Cell intruded directly into the Siberian Seas.

If we do not take the #1 volume spot by 7/1 I would be shocked. The heat this year has been much more widespread, much more intense, and has occurred DIRECTLY at solstice. Could one say this was a bullet that 2012 actually dodged? We will see by September.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2472 on: June 25, 2019, 05:23:02 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

Yes, it is still in the running, but could also finish 6th or lower.  Looking back at recent years, the sea ice minimum is determined largely by the melt occurring after the solstice.  There appears to be no correlation between the melt that has occurred from the maximum to the solstice and the ensuing minimum.  The weather from now until the autumnal equinox will be the decider.
..

It is of course true that the final result will be based upon melt in the 2nd half of the season.

But to ignore the advantages 2019 has entering the 2nd half would be misleading. It would take a miraculous weather distribution to curb the current momentum and finish outside the top 5.

The installed base of ocean heat, open water and low thickness combined with the present forecast is a huge head start.

Not really.  Compared to recent years, the melt over the first half of the season is fairly average.  This season got off to a fast start, with one of the highest 30-day melts in the satellite era (second to 1997).  However, that rate has curtailed over the past 60 days, such that the current trend is on the low side (only two years since the 2007 low have been less).  Some have contributed that to the thicker ice behind more difficult to melt.  Sea ice extent is currently 6th lowest at NSIDC, and if the pace continues, would finish 8th.  I think that weather conditions would need to deteriorate further to finish in the top 5 (at least in the NSIDC data set).

You must be new here.


This analysis is total garbage.

Sorry not trying to be rude.

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BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2473 on: June 25, 2019, 05:23:36 PM »
Each year, many posters (particularly new members) say this year is the big one. Depending on the year, we hear "the ice is badly fragmented", "extent is record low", "area is record low", etc. A lot of the fragmentation we are seeing this year is nothing new, and can be found going back a long way.

However: this has been one of the warmest years on record for spring/early summer, perhaps the warmest. Direct heat transfer between the air and ice only does a limited amount of damage, but the warmth gets surface melt started, keeps melt ponds open, and provides some heat. Either way, warm years like 2007 are associated with strong melt.

Now, at peak insolation, we have lots of melt ponding and low albedo across much of the Arctic. Also very warm water. That gives momentum. That momentum is confirmed by PIOMAS. In recent years, Neven has repeatedly warned people about getting carried away because in spite of the area/extent numbers, there hasn't been much momentum at the key time. This year, I think there is. Having said that, there are some areas that have been protected, so maybe I'm wrong. The Arctic has a way of proving all of us wrong most of the time.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2474 on: June 25, 2019, 05:25:21 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

Yes, it is still in the running, but could also finish 6th or lower.  Looking back at recent years, the sea ice minimum is determined largely by the melt occurring after the solstice.  There appears to be no correlation between the melt that has occurred from the maximum to the solstice and the ensuing minimum.  The weather from now until the autumnal equinox will be the decider.

WHAT???!!?!!???!?!??!


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There is a really the AMSR2 area is 1st lowest.

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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2475 on: June 25, 2019, 05:34:49 PM »
2019 has blown 2012 completely out of the water post 6/15 PIOMAS data. 2012 had a PV over the pole that still had some minor integrity. In 2019 the PV had relocated to the Kara and the PAC Hadley Cell intruded directly into the Siberian Seas.

If we do not take the #1 volume spot by 7/1 I would be shocked. The heat this year has been much more widespread, much more intense, and has occurred DIRECTLY at solstice. Could one say this was a bullet that 2012 actually dodged? We will see by September.

Good comparison. I also think about the high probability of the first place this year. All the same, the Laptev Sea is the most important Arctic sea due to the fact that it is the source of ice drift to the Central Arctic. And the consequences of heat wave to it will be very significant. In addition, the squeezing of ice in the East Siberian layer this year is greatly reduced due to the very warm water from the record warm spring on the coast of Alaska.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2476 on: June 25, 2019, 05:39:08 PM »
Spot on, Friv. But say, don't sweat it a smallest, though. Seems we have a fella who sees no connection between before-solstice melt ponding / albedo drop and September minimum. Nor between before-solstice melt - as in greater amount of solid known as "ice" turned into liquid known as "water', - and "ensuing minimum". That, or he does see those things alright, but _claims_ not to - which is even more laughable.  "No correlation", he says. Perhaps someone from Comedy Club? Hehe. Either way, i bet nobody serious ain't buying it-and-such, eh.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2477 on: June 25, 2019, 05:57:33 PM »
Not a mind reader, but Klondike fits the bill of denier troll. Some give him the benefit of the doubt. Just that he consistently puts himself in the same position.

Best to just ignore him.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2478 on: June 25, 2019, 06:28:19 PM »
Hmm.. This might be a stupid question, but in the cool years do we get a lot of snow? I can't think of anything better for ice preservation than a nice, cool reflective insulating blanket. Cold core cyclones dropping snow on the ice must be very good for preservation.

Warm dry air doesn't transfer much heat to the ice, lower specific heat capacity, much lower density. Warm wet air, in bright sunshine, with water condensing on the ice, I can't think of anything better for melt. The situation we have now, with southerly winds blowing over Siberia, land temperatures of 20°C, vaporizing moisture and then condensing it onto the ice must be the worst possible situation. Not so much a hair dryer, but an effective heat pump transferring heat poleward. A swamp cooler for the land, with the Arctic ice being the recipient of the heat.

Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2479 on: June 25, 2019, 06:56:28 PM »
Not a mind reader, but Klondike fits the bill of denier troll. Some give him the benefit of the doubt. Just that he consistently puts himself in the same position.

Best to just ignore him.

You can deny the data all you like, that will not change the results.  There are multiple others here that would agree with me that real story unfolds in the second half of the season.  This is when albedo changes, due to water and clouds have the greatest influence. 

 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3373/2018/tc-12-3373-2018.pdf

If you are stilling unaccepting, check out the data for yourself:  2007 had very low start of the season melt, while 2016 was very high.  Yet both finished with similar minima.  2010 started out with very high early season melt, but tapered off in the second half, bottoming out quite similar to last year, which had a slow start to the melt season. 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2480 on: June 25, 2019, 07:08:09 PM »
Not a mind reader, but Klondike fits the bill of denier troll. Some give him the benefit of the doubt. Just that he consistently puts himself in the same position.

Best to just ignore him.

You can deny the data all you like, that will not change the results.  There are multiple others here that would agree with me that real story unfolds in the second half of the season.  This is when albedo changes, due to water and clouds have the greatest influence. 

 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3373/2018/tc-12-3373-2018.pdf

If you are stilling unaccepting, check out the data for yourself:  2007 had very low start of the season melt, while 2016 was very high.  Yet both finished with similar minima.  2010 started out with very high early season melt, but tapered off in the second half, bottoming out quite similar to last year, which had a slow start to the melt season. 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Accumulated albedo anomalies are actually almost above 2016 again:




be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2481 on: June 25, 2019, 07:10:44 PM »
Hi Klondike .. you should read the arcticseaicenews .. it tells quite a different story to yours .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2482 on: June 25, 2019, 07:21:02 PM »
As bad as the ice currently looks in the East Siberia Sea, I would argue that the ice same day 2007 was clearly substantially worse.

In 2007 the ESS ice melted our far sooner and faster then any other year, and it wasn't until the end of July that the last ice in the ESS fast ice region was gone.  I'd say the ice in these regions should still last another month or so this time around as well.
In 2007, overall, there was a lot more ice, and if I recall, overall, 2007 actually lost more ice than 2012.

Even if we are not quite up to 2007, if we get similar-but-not-quite scales of melt, the implications are pretty serious.

yeah you name it, things have to be put into the right context and relation.

if we have 100 liters in a barrel and lose 25, we end up with 75 but if the barrel is only half full but we loose 20 liters we end up with 30 liters, even though we lost 20% less

also worth to mention from time to time that the more north the remaining ice is, the more and longer it takes to lose that, hence things will decelerate either way in terms of amounts lost but not necessarily in terms of percent lost.

they year we go blue we gonna lose probably half of 2007's volume but 100% of what's left
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 07:33:41 PM by magnamentis »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2483 on: June 25, 2019, 07:25:01 PM »
Not a mind reader, but Klondike fits the bill of denier troll. Some give him the benefit of the doubt. Just that he consistently puts himself in the same position.

Best to just ignore him.

You can deny the data all you like, that will not change the results.  There are multiple others here that would agree with me that real story unfolds in the second half of the season.  This is when albedo changes, due to water and clouds have the greatest influence. 

 https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3373/2018/tc-12-3373-2018.pdf

If you are stilling unaccepting, check out the data for yourself:  2007 had very low start of the season melt, while 2016 was very high.  Yet both finished with similar minima.  2010 started out with very high early season melt, but tapered off in the second half, bottoming out quite similar to last year, which had a slow start to the melt season. 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

You are right, the ice follow very consistent melt throughout the season, and early ice loss correlates very poorly with the final minima. Using early season extent to divine the end total is difficult at best, a fools errand at the worst.

What matters, in the end, is the amount of energy that gets transferred to the ice throughout the season, a combination of sunlight, warm wet winds, lack of snow cover, and, of course, a good mix with a GAC. This season has been remarkable for heat the ice pack has been exposed to. The results wont be seen until July and August but that doesn't mean its wrong to predict that it will be a bad melt season from what has been observed. Remember that the solar maximum is now, and not in the third week of July, the weather conditions around the solstice are critical for the amount of heat the ice receives.


echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2484 on: June 25, 2019, 07:25:35 PM »
I think it has no chance.

5th or 6th IMO

Yep...ZERO.
If I had a nickel for every time I read about "cataclysmic" melt season, every melt season in the past 6...well, I'd have a very large stack of nickels.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2485 on: June 25, 2019, 07:26:30 PM »
I love this map. Ok, so the pixels are big, but the colouring is simply super in giving the impression of what is going on. Much easier on the eye than the far more detailed (and accurate) AMSR2 images from the University of Bremen. The orange average line is wunderbar as well.


you remember the link i gave you, looks the same but has amsr2 resolution which is why it is the perfect combo and i love it and wonder why it's not more widely adopted.

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/index.html?date=&prod=SIC&area=NP&sensor=MOD

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2486 on: June 25, 2019, 07:35:05 PM »
I think it has no chance.

5th or 6th IMO

Yep...ZERO.
If I had a nickel for every time I read about "cataclysmic" melt season, every melt season in the past 6...well, I'd have a very large stack of nickels.

most posters here clearly state and repeat that it depends on the weather and just because we dodged the cannon balls several times does not meant the start did not justify the prediction.

further, even though extend wise we have not seen a new minimum, we have seen minima in volume and been very close to the record in 2016 and last but not least the ice has been preconditioned over the last few years

just because it did not yet happen does not mean people are off the mark possibility wise.

what did you say in 2012 after 2007 and 2010 then. and what did you say in 2013/14 trara.... you see it's recovering.

none of these things is linear, but temps globally go up, SSTs globally go up, ice globally goes down, CO2 globally goes up and no matter a month or a year it's obvious and visible where we're heading and bash those who see it is not opportune. in fact it's trumpist behaviour, go vote for the guy and be satisfied.

you mean because the allies beat adolf the many millions were not dead ? ;)
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 07:40:49 PM by magnamentis »

Sarat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2487 on: June 25, 2019, 07:38:27 PM »
June 24 comparison of 2019 vs 2007 vs 2016 (2012 data was missing for the date? sorry)

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2488 on: June 25, 2019, 07:42:13 PM »
June 24 comparison of 2019 vs 2007 vs 2016 (2012 data was missing for the date? sorry)

thanks for this, apparently some people need new glasses ;) it's so obvious and not forgetting about the quality of the remainder

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2489 on: June 25, 2019, 07:43:51 PM »
Well a very cold July followed by a gray August can put a brake to the melting season. But that's about the same bet as expecting Hell in July and great storms in August.
What is clearly perceived is that even an average weather can pull the season now to the top 2 in September with this sort of preconditioning. And if July keeps on with warm weather, at least 15 days, then August weather does not matter much. There'd be enough heat stored to beat 2012 IMHO.

Sarat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2490 on: June 25, 2019, 07:59:33 PM »
The way I see it 2019 now is way ahead except for being Atlantic heavy and Hudson average, those contribute a lot to the extent, but both those areas will play little role down the line as they tend to melt out. The weather would have to change a lot to avoid top 2.

Those 7/1 volume numbes,  bbr is all-in on, will tell an important story

Tigertown

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2491 on: June 25, 2019, 08:04:10 PM »
I think it has no chance.

5th or 6th IMO

Yep...ZERO.
If I had a nickel for every time I read about "cataclysmic" melt season, every melt season in the past 6...well, I'd have a very large stack of nickels.
The disaster has already began to unfold before our eyes, as we watched the thickest and oldest MYI disappear. Like a slow killing gut wound, the immediate consequences are yet to be apparent. The buffer effect this ice gave against such melt seasons as the current one is now gone. It is pointless to compare the outcome of similar seasons before this loss.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2492 on: June 25, 2019, 08:05:19 PM »
everyone should compare yesterday's UH concentration to today's.

on first glance one can see what's happening.

we should keep in mind that any tool/material under constand strain looks intact until a split second before it brakes.

and yes and again, if the weather will change to cool and cloudy the process is slowed down and the cannon ball can be dodged but as per today it's not like that, hence we're on the edge of the waterfall so to say.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2493 on: June 25, 2019, 08:26:44 PM »
as far as i can see we have already reached the volume minimum of the year 1978

some of you certainly have the exact numbers ready at a glance to confirm or proof this wrong.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2494 on: June 25, 2019, 08:27:00 PM »
The Arctic does tend to surprise us, as for me perhaps the biggest realisation has been how resilient the ice really is. Everything seems to be heading to total oblivion every year, but hey, then it just ends up more or less the same as last year.

But looking at the bigger picture, on average in the 2010s, about 2/3 of the annual max melts out, in other words, the annual melt is double the residual. In the 1980s it was closer to par, slightly more than half the annual maximum melted out.

The decadal average is falling by 1 million km2 each decade, so that gives us 40 years to reach 0 average extent.

To me these numbers imply that the ice is not likely to melt out this year, and that reaching a new record is going to be very difficult (average is 4,4 this decade, the record is 3,2) but reaching second place not so very difficult (4,1) and third place is really just average melt for this decade.

meddoc

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2495 on: June 25, 2019, 08:55:53 PM »
as far as i can see we have already reached the volume minimum of the year 1978

some of you certainly have the exact numbers ready at a glance to confirm or proof this wrong.

1979 Minimum was 16.855 km3

Already,  last PIOMAS was worse than that.


magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2496 on: June 25, 2019, 09:00:01 PM »
The Arctic does tend to surprise us, as for me perhaps the biggest realisation has been how resilient the ice really is. Everything seems to be heading to total oblivion every year, but hey, then it just ends up more or less the same as last year.

But looking at the bigger picture, on average in the 2010s, about 2/3 of the annual max melts out, in other words, the annual melt is double the residual. In the 1980s it was closer to par, slightly more than half the annual maximum melted out.

The decadal average is falling by 1 million km2 each decade, so that gives us 40 years to reach 0 average extent.

To me these numbers imply that the ice is not likely to melt out this year, and that reaching a new record is going to be very difficult (average is 4,4 this decade, the record is 3,2) but reaching second place not so very difficult (4,1) and third place is really just average melt for this decade.

because what i said upthread:

the higher up north, the later it starts to melt, the earlier it stops to melt and the thicker it is as a tendency with local exceptions due to currents and weather patterns.

makes totally sense and as long as we have ice thicker than 1m in significant amounts some of it will survive above 80N and in shady fjords etc.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2497 on: June 25, 2019, 09:00:55 PM »

1979 Minimum was 16.855 km3

Already,  last PIOMAS was worse than that.


thanks, that's what i meant, hence it's confirmed, very much appreciated to come up with facts.

the idea was to illustrate how much down the slope we are by now as far as ice-mass is concerned because some times we get lost in tiny month by month or even year by year comparisons while in fact the long-term larger picture tell the story beyond any doubt which is why a denier is either a total egomaniac who follows only his own interests or flat-out stupid.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2498 on: June 25, 2019, 09:16:47 PM »
The Arctic does tend to surprise us, as for me perhaps the biggest realisation has been how resilient the ice really is. Everything seems to be heading to total oblivion every year, but hey, then it just ends up more or less the same as last year.

But looking at the bigger picture, on average in the 2010s, about 2/3 of the annual max melts out, in other words, the annual melt is double the residual. In the 1980s it was closer to par, slightly more than half the annual maximum melted out.

The decadal average is falling by 1 million km2 each decade, so that gives us 40 years to reach 0 average extent.

To me these numbers imply that the ice is not likely to melt out this year, and that reaching a new record is going to be very difficult (average is 4,4 this decade, the record is 3,2) but reaching second place not so very difficult (4,1) and third place is really just average melt for this decade.

+1.     

Charctic interactive extent graph for last 10 yrs attached.   


uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2499 on: June 25, 2019, 09:37:30 PM »
It's not only the most northerly ice that is harder to melt. Historically it has also been the ice along the caa coast which has been most resilient. So just when we thought we were safe, here comes the return of the caa-cab crack with rubble as supporting cast. ;)
worldview aqua modis caa, jun10-25  https://go.nasa.gov/31Smjgf