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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2550 on: June 26, 2019, 01:45:29 PM »
As I do the rounds of climate sites I keep running into folk comparing 07'/2012 with today?

The melt dynamics of those packs were surely different from today's pack?

07' still had paleocryistic ice in its mix at ice min!

2012 still had plenty of aged ice in the Beaufort gyre?

2019 has seen its best ice drained away before the onset of melt season proper (both via Fram and Nares?) and late formed FY ice replace the losses.

This years ice will have differing characteristics to other years due to the ongoing conditioning toward a seasonal ice pack in the Arctic?

I reckon that late July should see the end of all the ice that entered melt season at 2m thick or below. If this proves right that's a lot of ice blinking our around the same week just under the melt momentum we have so far amassed.

It is looking like a nasty end to melt season this year!

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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2551 on: June 26, 2019, 02:18:16 PM »
...
further, even though extend wise we have not seen a new minimum, we have seen minima in volume and been very close to the record in 2016 and last but not least the ice has been preconditioned over the last few years
...
The situation when volume is record low while extent is not record low - is actually worse than when both are record low. Because such situation means lower thickness, and lower thickness means extra damage to the ice during a melt season via more cracks forming, greater damage from wave action, less optical and thermal insulation which ice gives to the water directly below it vs sunlight, and faster disappearance of thinner ice under GAC-like conditions.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2552 on: June 26, 2019, 02:27:08 PM »
Focussing on "the numbers", as you put it, is an example of the streetlight effect. Area and extent are useful in sometimes indicating anomalous regions, regions where one might want to try to figure out what's happening, but nothing more. (Obviously just my opinion.)

Really it just comes down to the weather now.

Area and extent are imperfect indicators, but at least can be directly and fairly reliably measured, unlike, say, volume. Area and extent numbers and maps from the various outfits that produce them (NOAA, uni Bremen, Jaxa ...) stay in general agreement while what volume maps exist are much more idiosyncratic.

Changes in area and extent have to be read in context - time of year, weather conditions, the quantitative(eg thickness) and qualitative(eg solid pack or loose rubble, rottenness) state of the ice. JAXA flatlined because of ice export and dispersion from June12-16 (losing only 40000km2 of extent in that period) while the weather was terrible for ice and volume was clearly taking a hammering - all those deep blue meltponds, and the huge amount of wet ice that appeared around then.

These are subjective and complex judgements to make for anyone. Its easy to get (maybe over)excited by some event. especially for us interested newbies with only a few or less seasons under our belt.

+1

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2553 on: June 26, 2019, 02:33:39 PM »
re posts @ heat ^^  thank goodness ( as has been argued up thread ) the weather in June has no bearing on the melt season outcome .

   Z Labe's arctic monthly graph shows 2005 was the warmest June recently with 2007 and 2012 (funnily enough) lying 2nd and 3rd . In otherwords we have not had a warm June recently to test the hypothesis.

 The last 2 july's have been only 29th and 30th warmest in the satellite era and we have to look back to 2007 for the warmest and all the way to 1998 for the 2nd warmest . Are cool July's a trend or will things change ?

I for one cannot believe the weather in June will not affect the season's outcome .. b.c.
 
I thought 2015 had the warmest July on record in the Arctic?








It should be noted that:

2005 set the record low sea ice area/extent.

Until.....

2007 set the record low sea ice area/extent.

Until....

2012 set the record low sea ice area/extent.



BUT JUNE ISN'T THE MOST IMPORTANT MONTH?????


I got a nickname for all my guns
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AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2554 on: June 26, 2019, 02:47:25 PM »
And the last few winters were at worst bad for freezing, and at best they couldn't reach a level of regeneration that could turn thin, fragmented ice to the solid ice that was the rule a decade or two before.

In the end, the question is, would we continue to be lucky to not get a strong melt season until the ice returns to its previous levels, or would we get a new record low instead. Unfortunately, the second option seems way more likely.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2555 on: June 26, 2019, 03:01:17 PM »
...
   Z Labe's arctic monthly graph shows 2005 was the warmest June recently with 2007 and 2012 (funnily enough) lying 2nd and 3rd . ...
... It should be noted that:

2005 set the record low sea ice area/extent.

Until.....

2007 set the record low sea ice area/extent.

Until....

2012 set the record low sea ice area/extent.



BUT JUNE ISN'T THE MOST IMPORTANT MONTH?????
Yup.

They'll tell you your numbers are fake, your sources are bad, your brain is damaged and your doubt in their intellectual superiority is criminal offense punishable by hanging, too. If you'd let them. :D

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2556 on: June 26, 2019, 03:13:31 PM »
And the last few winters were at worst bad for freezing, and at best they couldn't reach a level of regeneration that could turn thin, fragmented ice to the solid ice that was the rule a decade or two before.

In the end, the question is, would we continue to be lucky to not get a strong melt season until the ice returns to its previous levels, or would we get a new record low instead. Unfortunately, the second option seems way more likely.
Sorry for double post and kinda off-topic, but this one made me **really** curious! Dear AmbiValent, would you very kindly tell us here, what exactly makes you think that "ice returns to its previous levels" situation would actually happen in any observable future? I have a guess, but i'd really like to hear what you gotta say. And if you'd prefer not to answer this question - then please say so. It'd be hint enough in itself. Thanks!


AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2558 on: June 26, 2019, 03:24:30 PM »
And the last few winters were at worst bad for freezing, and at best they couldn't reach a level of regeneration that could turn thin, fragmented ice to the solid ice that was the rule a decade or two before.

In the end, the question is, would we continue to be lucky to not get a strong melt season until the ice returns to its previous levels, or would we get a new record low instead. Unfortunately, the second option seems way more likely.
Sorry for double post and kinda off-topic, but this one made me **really** curious! Dear AmbiValent, would you very kindly tell us here, what exactly makes you think that "ice returns to its previous levels" situation would actually happen in any observable future? I have a guess, but i'd really like to hear what you gotta say. And if you'd prefer not to answer this question - then please say so. It'd be hint enough in itself. Thanks!
I thoght I was clear that a new record is far more likely than a return to previous levels, given the last few bad winters.

Edit: From one year to the next, there might be gains, but I don't think the gains would continue until previous ice volume levels are reached. Losses are more likely to win in the end.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 03:31:22 PM by AmbiValent »
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2559 on: June 26, 2019, 03:24:50 PM »
The Arctic does tend to surprise us, as for me perhaps the biggest realisation has been how resilient the ice really is. Everything seems to be heading to total oblivion every year, but hey, then it just ends up more or less the same as last year.

But looking at the bigger picture, on average in the 2010s, about 2/3 of the annual max melts out, in other words, the annual melt is double the residual. In the 1980s it was closer to par, slightly more than half the annual maximum melted out.

The decadal average is falling by 1 million km2 each decade, so that gives us 40 years to reach 0 average extent.

To me these numbers imply that the ice is not likely to melt out this year, and that reaching a new record is going to be very difficult (average is 4,4 this decade, the record is 3,2) but reaching second place not so very difficult (4,1) and third place is really just average melt for this decade.
But the 40 year extrapolation  assumes that the melt will proceed in a linear fashion as we get closer to 0 extent.
Many predict that as the ice reduces, positive feedbacks such as lower albedo of open water compared to ice, easier export of less rigid ice masses  and changes to the jet stream mean that ice loss could accelerate and reach a tipping point which could mean 0 ice much sooner.

Agreed.  These feedbacks could easily accelerate. 

In addition, the monster threat of potential changes in Arctic surface ocean temperature (as warm salty waters pour in and threaten the thin, cold, freshwater 'lid') already has its foot in the door, and is itching to make its full entrance and melt the Arctic ice from below.  The more ice is lost in this way, the more exposed the surface waters to wind mixing of these two layers.  Then more ice is lost etc, making this is another positive feedback, potentially a gigantic one. Sometimes, with the focus on atmospheric phenomena, this factor is left backstage.

So, with that 40 year extrapolation... I see why it is made, and I can only hope that it is correct.  Like you, I have little confidence that it is.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2560 on: June 26, 2019, 03:56:02 PM »
The GFS now transitions to an Arctic dipole anomaly. 

The CAA is about to clear out and get hammered as well.  The Southern 1/3rd of the CAB is also forecasted to get hit hard.


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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2561 on: June 26, 2019, 04:01:38 PM »
Area and extent are imperfect indicators, but at least can be directly and fairly reliably measured, unlike, say, volume. Area and extent numbers and maps from the various outfits that produce them (NOAA, uni Bremen, Jaxa ...) stay in general agreement while what volume maps exist are much more idiosyncratic.

My main idea is that we stop referring to changes in area and extent as "melting" or "freezing."  Volume measures, however imperfect, indicate melt or freeze.  Although long-term trends in area and extent measures are certainly correlated with melt/freeze, short term changes in the extent and area measures do not necessarily indicate overall melting or freezing situation. Extent can increase due to dispersion etc., even where there is overall melting. I think using the shorthand of "melt" or "freeze" with area and extent measures may be a source of confusion sometimes.

ajouis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2562 on: June 26, 2019, 04:40:36 PM »
According to the bremen university map, there is very vulnerable ice in baffin, greenland and south kara. If you add certain areas of ess land fast ice, and the current and future weather conditions, we are in for a cliff in area and extent, with probably 1/2 million km in area lost from those places alone. I can t say when it will disappear exactly but given that we are in the solar maximum and everything else posted here, i’d say within a week

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2563 on: June 26, 2019, 04:41:58 PM »
Is one week of 'NOT EVEN CLOSE' hotter weather in 2019 enough to catch up to 2012?
[/quote]

a) what's the purpose of your post, what do you want to tell us ?

b) can't be a serious question because that is answered ! (this tiny gap i call on par )

c) how comes that each of your tiles let's my heartbeat increase ?

the only assumption your way of posting allows IMO is that you are not happy with the "not even close" term while it's an obvious fact and at the same time the implication that the "not even close" term is wrong or misleading is already proven wrong. once the B-Gyre resumes things will look even more clear IMO because right now there is a lot of fake extent in that corner that is camouflaging the real situation of the ice.

there remains the possibility that i get it all wrong but then since i'm not alone perhaps we should start to work on semantics a bit.

either way i shall say nothing more, last try to either understand or convey a point.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 04:52:27 PM by magnamentis »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2564 on: June 26, 2019, 04:50:26 PM »
Area and extent are imperfect indicators, but at least can be directly and fairly reliably measured, unlike, say, volume.

while i agree on your main point i disagree on "AREA" as being measured reliably.

a) AREA is (at least should be) one part of the volume measurement !!! area x thickness = volume

b) area measurements are heavily distorted by melt pondings (espically large ones) as well as
.   very wet ice. many times water on the surface of ice makes the sensors believe it's ocean water
.   while in reality it's melt water/lakes on ice.

we all remember that gorgeous images from north-west greenland a few days ago that made the headlines of mainstream media and only because that was photographed and published does not mean that it's an exception. looking at sat images and fjords i can see that it's kind of a norm in some places, only perhaps not that pronounced and/or deep and uniform over such a large area.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2565 on: June 26, 2019, 05:02:09 PM »
Area and extent are imperfect indicators, but at least can be directly and fairly reliably measured, unlike, say, volume. Area and extent numbers and maps from the various outfits that produce them (NOAA, uni Bremen, Jaxa ...) stay in general agreement while what volume maps exist are much more idiosyncratic.

My main idea is that we stop referring to changes in area and extent as "melting" or "freezing."  Volume measures, however imperfect, indicate melt or freeze.  Although long-term trends in area and extent measures are certainly correlated with melt/freeze, short term changes in the extent and area measures do not necessarily indicate overall melting or freezing situation. Extent can increase due to dispersion etc., even where there is overall melting. I think using the shorthand of "melt" or "freeze" with area and extent measures may be a source of confusion sometimes.

Agreed on decoupling area and extent from a direct interpretation of melting and freezing, especially during the melting season.  I also think that we need to get away from assailing the very use of area and extent for interpretation during the melting season.  They are two reliably measured, significant, long-term, Arctic-wide sets of data about the state of the ice.  Even when they do not relate directly to melting or freezing, they often give useful indications of what is happening, as in your example above. 

I believe we also need to recognize that almost every set of direct measurements (and the algorithms used to process them) have similar interpretative issues to the AMSR2 data.  Think of a human's weight... a straightforward measure right?  But if someone gains weight in the short term, is that because of water retention or gaining extra fat or they had just had a large meal or other factors?  The point is that many measurements require contextual interpretation. 

Lastly, volume.  Volume would of course be the ultimate measure of how much ice there is, and it would be magnificent to be able to directly measure the volume of Arctic ice, but we cannot.  The PIOMAS and other models give their indications of volume.  For the models' calculation of volume, ice thickness is needed (calculated by means of a large number of algorithms, based on a large number of factors, supported by relatively little direct measurement) and area/extent (I don't know which, I assume area) based off measurements from AMSR2 and the like.  So even if we did have reliable, Arctic-wide measurements of ice thickness, we would still be relying upon area/extent, the very measures to that have come under criticism, to calculate volume.   
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 05:19:53 PM by Pagophilus »

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2566 on: June 26, 2019, 05:29:29 PM »
I know it was briefly mentioned earlier, but there is now like actual grass starting to grow in Barrow! I'm amazed at how calm and warm it looks there. I also have been amazed at how the ice is just vanishing and the gulf of Alaska continues to heat - I think if the momentum continues the first week of July we will have a better idea as to what to expect toward the end of the season. Lastly, I know there are different criteria various countries follow, but according to Australia the mild El Nino is officially over and is now just in neutral (normal) temp.

pls!

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2567 on: June 26, 2019, 06:17:45 PM »
The 12Z gfs is BACK BREAKING.

transitions straight into a cryosphere wide arctic dipole anomaly.

Wow!!
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2568 on: June 26, 2019, 06:35:46 PM »
Well, let's see what the EURO and the ensemble says Friv. But a dipole now, that would be to deal with a killer...

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2569 on: June 26, 2019, 06:39:06 PM »
Well, let's see what the EURO and the ensemble says Friv. But a dipole now, that would be to deal with a killer...

The 00z euro ensembles had a dipole.

So the euro OP is likely to follow suite with one today.

Here is the gfs from day 5-8.

And don't forget from right now to day 5 is a blowtorch all over.


This summer is going to carve a new path to how you smash records.





I got a nickname for all my guns
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Burnrate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2570 on: June 26, 2019, 06:49:38 PM »
Warmth for days.

EDIT: Fixed excessive gif autoloading.
<removed attachments, sorry, 10 MB for such simple animations is just too much; N.>

Edit 2: Webms! now 200 kbs each, linked externally.


« Last Edit: June 27, 2019, 01:18:30 AM by Burnrate »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2571 on: June 26, 2019, 06:57:13 PM »
Burnrate, thanks for those! They are great. :)

Unfortunately, they are also unusually great in file size. With files that big you basically shot out everyone with a slow or capped internet connection.

Next time please use https://ezgif.com/resize to make it canvas size 701 pixels. This will lead to the site to not autoload the GIF (less traffic for any side).

Please also use https://ezgif.com/optimize to bring the file size down in general.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2572 on: June 26, 2019, 07:13:07 PM »
Warmth for days.
+1     Thanks!    For the animations themselves not what they portend!   :)

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2573 on: June 26, 2019, 07:25:32 PM »
aagh .. can't load page .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2574 on: June 26, 2019, 07:35:20 PM »
aagh .. can't load page .. b.c.

Called it!  8)

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2575 on: June 26, 2019, 07:44:42 PM »
aagh .. can't load page .. b.c.

Called it!  8)
I have asked Neven to kill those gifs from burnrate. My laptop and not so good rural internet connection are not happy.

It's a shame. I also tell the gifmaker i use to limit the number of times they play after being clicked to start.
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Burnrate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2576 on: June 26, 2019, 07:46:57 PM »

Called it!  8)

It's fixed.  I set the res above 701 to prevent autoload and also made a super lossy optimization (they only got down to about 10 MB though).

I will gif more carefully in the future.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2577 on: June 26, 2019, 07:47:50 PM »
I also tell the gifmaker i use to limit the number of times they play after being clicked to start.

Is this reducing file size? I tend to doubt it. Once loaded, it shouldn't make a difference (traffic wise) if played once or 100 times, no?

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2578 on: June 26, 2019, 07:54:11 PM »

Called it!  8)

It's fixed.  I set the res above 701 to prevent autoload and also made a super lossy optimization (they only got down to about 10 MB though).

I will gif more carefully in the future.
Thanks, my clapped out laptop and lousy rural internet connection had a bad case of heartburn
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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2579 on: June 26, 2019, 07:54:24 PM »
thankfully on to a new page .. i hope the gifs are worth the hassle .. thanks b l and geronto !  b.c,

 ... and burnrate .. :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2580 on: June 26, 2019, 07:58:45 PM »

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2581 on: June 26, 2019, 08:26:03 PM »
You guys should starting using webm files instead of gif. You can reduce filesize by like 90% with almost the same quality, like this version of Burnrate's gif:

.

Or if you really have a terrible connection, this forum has a WAP2 style page which is only text and loads super easily: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.2575/wap2.html

deep octopus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2582 on: June 26, 2019, 08:39:38 PM »
Warmth for days.

That high over Greenland is going to do damage. June 29-Jul 1 look especially bad. That could intensify export through Fram, and with warm wind and bottom melt pushing on the back door from the Pacific, this is 2007-esque.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2583 on: June 26, 2019, 08:55:53 PM »

Called it!  8)

It's fixed.  I set the res above 701 to prevent autoload and also made a super lossy optimization (they only got down to about 10 MB though).

I will gif more carefully in the future.
The ezgif optimization is not that good a feature. Better leave without it and not save the bits
Nice gifs anyway.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2584 on: June 26, 2019, 09:24:51 PM »
Well, let's see what the EURO and the ensemble says Friv. But a dipole now, that would be to deal with a killer...

Allthough I have been lurking for years now, I still haven't figured out what the dreaded Dipole is and why it is so destructive. Must be a scary monster. Maybe I should look somewhere else on the forum, but it might be instructive to other lurkers also. Can somebody please help me out?

<"Stupid" questions thread, but Google is faster; N.>

« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 10:26:35 PM by Neven »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2585 on: June 26, 2019, 09:47:54 PM »
So the winds are going to continue blowing pretty strong it seems, from the already warmed up peripheral areas toward the Pole and then Greenland. Expect sunny weather in large expanses including the Pole. This is the first four or five days, really bad, then the winds and the high pressure weaken before setting up a dipole, or not. In any case, the expected winds in the immediate days are really pulling a dipole-like advection in disguise, from Pacific to Fram, tortuous as a snake but the isobars are tight. And the hour 120 is weak dipole. I made a pause in the gif there, then it goes into EC fantasyland to the hour 240 with that nuclear ridge over Alaska
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 10:05:38 PM by Sterks »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2586 on: June 26, 2019, 09:51:23 PM »
update on the caa-cab crack, jun24-26. https://go.nasa.gov/2X7yt1n
Also a look back to to see how often the area of thickest ice has lifted off the caa using unihamburg amsr2-uhh, may1-jun25. A few more days of warm southerlies are forecast.
Hopefully the gifs are small enough at 600KB and 1.6MB :)
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 10:02:29 PM by uniquorn »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2587 on: June 26, 2019, 10:22:06 PM »
The strong East Greenland current flows North to South.

A lump of ice about 40 x 20 miles has come away off the ice attached to NE Greenland. It is going - North.
A bit farther south at Dove, there is a load of ice flowing - East.

Image re NE Greenland attached.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2588 on: June 26, 2019, 10:23:54 PM »
In the immediate sense of things, we're watching an epic melt season.

In the big picture, we're at a 3 million year high in GHG levels. We're witnessing a small story in the Earth's transformation to a climate system which humans are not acquainted with. It's a rapid and treacherous transformation.

We are witnessing some things that humans have never seen.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2589 on: June 26, 2019, 10:32:32 PM »
In addition to the warmth continuing from all sides and possible dipole coming, there is also rain: first north of Greenland (starting now), and in a couple of days coming in from the Pacific. Possibly more from the Pacific later in the forecast too. Oh, and also in the Laptev. Also, do I see in Burnrate's animation a forecast for the jetstream to possibly divert right into the Arctic on the Pacific side? [facepalm!]

Unless the forecasts are wrong or reverse soon, all bets are off.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2590 on: June 26, 2019, 10:41:53 PM »
And the last few winters were at worst bad for freezing, and at best they couldn't reach a level of regeneration that could turn thin, fragmented ice to the solid ice that was the rule a decade or two before.

In the end, the question is, would we continue to be lucky to not get a strong melt season until the ice returns to its previous levels, or would we get a new record low instead. Unfortunately, the second option seems way more likely.

With atmospheric CO2 levels racing to 450 ppm and surface temps climbing just as quickly, ice returning to its previous levels is not simply unlikely but impossible.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2591 on: June 26, 2019, 11:06:46 PM »

In the end, the question is, would we continue to be lucky to not get a strong melt season until the ice returns to its previous levels........

that is physically impossible during our life span, correction, my life span since i'm a bit on the over 800 moons side when it comes to age ;)

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2592 on: June 26, 2019, 11:47:07 PM »
450? Try one or two thousand. Don't look for ice ages to return for tens of millions of years...

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2593 on: June 27, 2019, 12:06:24 AM »
450? Try one or two thousand. Don't look for ice ages to return for tens of millions of years...

big words but not backed with anything but assumptions. that's ok with me as long as the minimum of such a bold predictions is not that much exaggerated. and read well, the minimum you mention is tens of millions of years that makes it at least 20 million years due to the plural you used.

and again, it's possible but not necessarily so.

last but not least we are in an ice age right now. google or look up by other means the definition of "ice-age" it's typical human that we see ourselves in the center of everything and translate ice age to something that is only happening when the ice has reached our house-door.

as long as there is ice on this planet we are in an ice age, this as opposed to ages when there was no ice at all.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2594 on: June 27, 2019, 12:08:47 AM »
Topic: 2019 melting season.

Thank you.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2595 on: June 27, 2019, 12:36:01 AM »
Latest GFS run still shows the potential dipole pattern occuring although by no means a certainty as demonstrated by the ECM run(albeit its certainly moved a bit towards the GFS on the 12Z run). Time will tell what it means for the ice but i dont like those forecast southerly winds in the Chuckchi sea with the very warm SSTS and how far north the ice edge is already.


Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2596 on: June 27, 2019, 12:52:59 AM »
Top part of this picture (near Beaufort/Chukchi boundary) is dominated by much smaller floes that are too small to see individually at this resolution.  Bottom half is much larger floes with many individually discernable.  The rough boundary is also marked by much more discoloured ice - I believe that is algae?  Or is it dust and/or smoke?  There is also a transition from fast ice that is currently not obviously breaking up to no fast ice on the shore.

Is the difference due to a boundary of warm water entering from Pacific vs cooler water in the Beaufort?  Or are the much smaller floes towards the top the remnants of sea ice from the Bering that have been melting for a much longer period than the Beaufort floes?

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2597 on: June 27, 2019, 01:17:39 AM »
   .. that last anomaly map has the hemisphere on fire as we begin July  ..  snow is seen mostly falling from air-masses leaving arctic central while being replaced by rain from wherever it's warm . . Greenland N.W. looks a good spot for camping / hiking this next week .
  Where does the cold come from to rescue this July ?   The Antarctic ?

 The Gift of gifs .. thanks everyone .
Daft thing is I saw burnrate's gifs before Neven took them down . I like that form of gif because it allows me to decide if I play it or not .
 It does not appear to part self-load as grixm's webx does , as facepuke does .. every unwatched video you pass part loads every time you pass it .

Then Uniqcorn uses autoplaying versions that use more of my bits than if he loaded better versions that we could click on .. as he does with much of his output in the Test area .. although there are enough self playing gifs on a page there too to gobble up data every whither I want to look again or not .
 
The sterks option .. again play whither wanted or not .. should that be an option ? I had just come from looking at the same forecast .. :) . To me it seems the options are there .. that allow the viewer the choice of play or not and load or not .

The choice of quality should be with the producer .. I don't mind the size of a gif .. I do mind not having control of it .. b.c.


ps .. I am very happy to be part of this forum and I really appreciate that my thoughts are tolerated . Neven you are welcome to snip and transfer gif thoughts to appropriate place .. it's just here they may get heard by more .. :)
 
« Last Edit: June 27, 2019, 11:32:02 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2598 on: June 27, 2019, 02:31:27 AM »
Top part of this picture (near Beaufort/Chukchi boundary) is dominated by much smaller floes that are too small to see individually at this resolution.  Bottom half is much larger floes with many individually discernable.  The rough boundary is also marked by much more discoloured ice - I believe that is algae?  Or is it dust and/or smoke?  There is also a transition from fast ice that is currently not obviously breaking up to no fast ice on the shore.

Is the difference due to a boundary of warm water entering from Pacific vs cooler water in the Beaufort?  Or are the much smaller floes towards the top the remnants of sea ice from the Bering that have been melting for a much longer period than the Beaufort floes?
The small grain, nebulous ice is certainly melting very fast in flows deriving from the collision of the jet-like flow from Bering against Beaufort currents. If you scroll fast on Worldview you can see the ice edge being stretched and folded at places with floe size decreasing fast in average.

The brownish ice might be, from Sentinel 2 images of other years, “ghost floes” or ice where many ponds have already drained, the floe showing ocean beneath having a ghostly resemblance. But it can be algae etc. Not sure.
In Beaufort sea, however, melting is much slower. I don’t doubt Beaufort sea ice will become zero again, but for Beaufort to melt out faster, some storms dispersing would help, either that or some insolation and WAAs or both.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2599 on: June 27, 2019, 02:34:10 AM »
This image was posted on Twitter today by Adrian Gall, an arctic based wildlife biologist. 

It was taken from the window of her survey plane last week. The notations on the images are hers, not mine.  @gall_adri.