Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 1213317 times)

RoxTheGeologist

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 470
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 130
  • Likes Given: 100
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2650 on: June 27, 2019, 04:39:16 PM »
The GAC welled up heat stored in layers below the Arctic ocean's surface to melt large quantities of ice. Of course, it takes heat to melt ice. Yes, melting ice is a highly endothermic process. The comment you referred to was incorrect and should be disregarded.

Water is a very unusual liquid, it's extraordinarily strongly hydrogen bonded. It's a liquid at room temperature whereas most other compounds with a similar atomic weight are gaseous. When it freezes it forms covalent bonds, and it expands, and hence it's density goes down. Forming those bonds releases energy. When you break those bonds, you have to add energy. The same applies to the transition from liquid to gas, but this time you have to break all the hydrogen bonds that keep it as a  liquid, and that requires much more energy than the transition from solid to liquid.

I'd recommend reading the wiki on water and ice. There are whole journals dedicated to the research of water. Its fascinating stuff....well, I assume, to the other nerds on this forum....


b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2651 on: June 27, 2019, 04:40:21 PM »
For what i understand ash would need to blow into the stratosphere in order to have a climate effect. This didn't happen with this one. Therefore i would say no, no climate effect FrostKing.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 612
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2652 on: June 27, 2019, 04:59:34 PM »
Slater model projected extent for Aug 16th: 5,12 m sq km (a solid second place)

nsidc extents on the same date :

2012: 4,77
2007: 5,39
2016:5,47
2017:5,42
2018:5,64

Rich

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2653 on: June 27, 2019, 05:08:19 PM »
It fascinating to observe the role of wind in the Arctic ice story.

Without the benefit of much atmospheric heat, the wind and warm water have turned the Beaufort gyre into rubble. Meanwhile the Kara cyclone has played a big role in the poleward push of the Laptev.

What the wind has on tap in the coming days is no less interesting.

As mentioned previously, the Pacific Ocean wind is lined up to push through the Bering Strait where a 20-25 knot wind should be pushing a small surge through.

The winds inside the Arctic will be pushing that surge toward the ESS and there is an open water path along  the coast which should flood the ESS coastline and press on the ice separating the ESS from the Laptev.

Meanwhile, you've got steady winds blowing from the Laptev toward Fram, highlighted by 30 knot winds along the NE coast of Greenland.  Fram export s/b turbocharged in the coming week.

The 2019 season is using all of her weapons in it's arsenal. Very resourceful.

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 890
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 259
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2654 on: June 27, 2019, 05:11:10 PM »
Hi El Cid .. can you share the source for your Slater maps .. I would like to be able to follow the graph .. cheers ..  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2655 on: June 27, 2019, 05:19:37 PM »
Not sure if this is the correct thread, but here goes!

Does anyone know if the recent Raikoke eruption is large enough to have a global temperature effect?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/26/this-volcano-just-erupted-after-nearly-century-silence-astronauts-captured-breathtaking-scene-miles-above/?utm_term=.ba01ec18759e

OK, I'll bite, but only because it is so darn cool, and you can see it on the Worldview images below.   I think this eruption, imposing at it is, is too small and short-lied to have any significant effect on global temperature.  It is the monster explosive eruptions, like Pinatubo in 1991, that have a significant global effect.

The worldview images below show the ash cloud appearing on June 22.  A day later the ash has traveled out of the Kuril Islands area and 3000 km into the Pacific, S of the Aleutians.  A day later, June 24, it is not longer readily discernible.  So much of it probably dispersed and settled out in that time.  There will be residual particles in the atmosphere of course.

I think that this dispersed ash probably did make it to the upper troposphere and maybe the lower stratosphere, as it traveled so rapidly from its source (about 120 km/hr), and it is obviously above the clouds in the image. 
« Last Edit: June 27, 2019, 05:30:02 PM by Pagophilus »

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 335
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2656 on: June 27, 2019, 05:20:55 PM »
When it freezes it forms covalent bonds
Not covalent bonds but additional H-bonds (~3.4 H-bonds per molecule in liquid water, 4 in ice).

Rich

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2657 on: June 27, 2019, 05:22:59 PM »

Water is a very unusual liquid, it's extraordinarily strongly hydrogen bonded. It's a liquid at room temperature whereas most other compounds with a similar atomic weight are gaseous. When it freezes it forms covalent bonds, and it expands, and hence it's density goes down. Forming those bonds releases energy. When you break those bonds, you have to add energy. The same applies to the transition from liquid to gas, but this time you have to break all the hydrogen bonds that keep it as a  liquid, and that requires much more energy than the transition from solid to liquid.


I'm sorry. this is just a) wrong and b) not melting season material.

Water does not form covalent bonds when it freezes. The covalent bond is intramolecular (within each water molecule), regardless of whether it is liquid, solid or gas.

When water freezes, the intermolecular hydrogen bonds change shape causing the expansion you are speaking to.

If you want to discuss further, let's take it to the stupid questions thread.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2658 on: June 27, 2019, 05:34:29 PM »
I think that this dispersed ash probably did make it to the upper troposphere and maybe the lower stratosphere

I read it went (only) 13km high.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1668
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2659 on: June 27, 2019, 05:35:44 PM »
the source for the Slater maps .. I would like to be able to follow the graph .
https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

lots of other stuff there
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sebastian Jones

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 314
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2660 on: June 27, 2019, 05:37:44 PM »
Not sure if this is the correct thread, but here goes!

Does anyone know if the recent Raikoke eruption is large enough to have a global temperature effect?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/26/this-volcano-just-erupted-after-nearly-century-silence-astronauts-captured-breathtaking-scene-miles-above/?utm_term=.ba01ec18759e


OK, I'll bite, but only because it is so darn cool, and you can see it on the Worldview images below.  (And (dubious attempt to make this OT, some might be wondering if this eruption might affect the ice this season)  I think this eruption, imposing at it is, is too small and short-lied to have any significant effect on global temperature.  It is the monster explosive eruptions, like Pinatubo in 1991, that have a significant global effect.

The worldview images below show the ash cloud appearing on June 22.  A day later the ash has traveled out of the Kuril Islands area and 3000 km into the Pacific, S of the Aleutians.  A day later, June 24, it is not longer readily discernible.  So much of it probably dispersed and settled out in that time.  There will be residual particles in the atmosphere of course.

I think that this dispersed ash probably did make it to the upper troposphere and maybe the lower stratosphere, as it traveled so rapidly from its source (about 120 km/hr).

It is not just the amount of ash and sulphates that make it into the stratosphere that indicates if a volcanic eruption will affect global climate. Latitude is important to. Volcanoes in the tropics tend to be much more significant globally- think of Pinatubo and Tambora. High latitude volcanoes can affect climate, but more locally- think Icelands Laki.

The following is from the Wikipedia page "Little Ice Age", it gives an intro to volcanic effects on climate with links to delve deeper:
"Throughout the Little Ice Age, the world experienced heightened volcanic activity.[82] When a volcano erupts, its ash reaches high into the atmosphere and can spread to cover the whole earth. The ash cloud blocks out some of the incoming solar radiation, leading to worldwide cooling that can last up to two years after an eruption. Also emitted by eruptions is sulfur, in the form of sulfur dioxide gas. When it reaches the stratosphere, it turns into sulfuric acid particles, which reflect the sun's rays, further reducing the amount of radiation reaching Earth's surface.

A recent study found that an especially massive tropical volcanic eruption in 1257, possibly of the now-extinct Mount Samalas near Mount Rinjani, both in Lombok, Indonesia, followed by three smaller eruptions in 1268, 1275, and 1284 did not allow the climate to recover. This may have caused the initial cooling, and the 1452–53 eruption of Kuwae in Vanuatu triggered a second pulse of cooling.[6] The cold summers can be maintained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks long after volcanic aerosols are removed."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age#Volcanic_activity

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7200
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 730
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2661 on: June 27, 2019, 05:43:09 PM »
Is there a volcano thread somewhere? Please, bite there.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2662 on: June 27, 2019, 05:48:19 PM »
It's quite unbelievable that most of the ice below 80 degrees is just rubble at this point. Granted these are very large flows, however dispersion, mobility, and overall greater surface area will only facilitate more melting. I'm having trouble fully understanding just how much melt is occurring and when/if we will see the ice get eviscerated.

Has the pack itself been covered by quite a bit of cloud cover in the central area? I don't totally know, but from what I have seen it appears as though Alaska and north of it have been clear for quite some time now (hence why the image below and my remarks earlier show the most concern for this portion of the ice).

pls!

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2663 on: June 27, 2019, 06:02:18 PM »
I think that this dispersed ash probably did make it to the upper troposphere and maybe the lower stratosphere

I read it went (only) 13km high.

I am betting you are right then, and it only got to the upper troposphere, and was whirled away by high speed winds there.  The tropopause is 17 km high at equator and 9km high at the poles (on average), so it might be around 13 km at this highish latitude.  I gather that it does take quite a punch for a volcanic eruption to go through the tropopause and into the stratosphere...   

EDIT  Whoops, just read Neven's message.... Over and out!

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3977
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 428
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2664 on: June 27, 2019, 07:07:32 PM »
It is mostly algae causing the discoloration of ice.  At least, I'm pretty sure of it.

This may well be correct, but it still begs the question as to why such algal growth would be so prominent in the Chukchi as opposed to elsewhere. 

Perhaps it is temperature related.  However, in my experience, the presence of nutrients is often more key to algal growth.  So I think the sediment hypothesis, providing extra nutrients to the ice, should be considered at least as part of the phenomenon.

Thinner ice is one reason.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3977
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 428
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2665 on: June 27, 2019, 07:09:10 PM »
Not sure if this is the correct thread, but here goes!

Does anyone know if the recent Raikoke eruption is large enough to have a global temperature effect?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/26/this-volcano-just-erupted-after-nearly-century-silence-astronauts-captured-breathtaking-scene-miles-above/?utm_term=.ba01ec18759e

Definitely wrong thread.

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2666 on: June 27, 2019, 08:41:24 PM »
It looks like the ice in west Kara was melted in-situ, preconditioned and to a lesser degree compacted because of the persistence of winds. Even though it's been mostly cloudy/cold, because the cyclones were centered there, the winds (and possibly some moisture) hammered the ice. One should not disregard the effect that persistently strong winds can have on fractured ice this time of year.

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2667 on: June 27, 2019, 08:47:12 PM »
It looks like the majority of the ice in west Kara was melted in-situ, preconditioned and to a lesser degree compacted because of the persistence of winds. Even though it's been mostly cloudy/cold, because the cyclone was centered there, the winds (and possibly some moisture) hammered the ice. One should not disregard the effect that persistently strong winds can have on fractured ice this time of year.
Yes and probably Atlantic currents into Kara have played the main role of bringing the heat, while the strong persistent storm has broken the ice to smaller and smaller floes that melt super fast. Fascinating, very few days of real warmth in June, snow and all, and yet almost gone.

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2668 on: June 27, 2019, 08:54:40 PM »
bad EC forecast out of the oven, in my opinion. I leave it to the pros.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2669 on: June 27, 2019, 09:02:16 PM »
Looks like high winds round the top of Greenland today.

the ice is not exported through fram anymore, it's expelled, fired, kicked in the ass :D :D :D

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2670 on: June 27, 2019, 09:21:11 PM »
Slater model projected extent for Aug 16th: 5,12 m sq km (a solid second place)

nsidc extents on the same date :

2012: 4,77
2007: 5,39
2016:5,47
2017:5,42
2018:5,64

there won't be ice in hudson by then.

what would that take away from the 2nd place prediction ?

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2671 on: June 27, 2019, 09:35:08 PM »
Slater model projected extent for Aug 16th: 5,12 m sq km (a solid second place)

nsidc extents on the same date :

2012: 4,77
2007: 5,39
2016:5,47
2017:5,42
2018:5,64

there won't be ice in hudson by then.

what would that take away from the 2nd place prediction ?

The Slater prediction has its value, but the Slater map, in my view, is pretty strange.  I would not base any specific interpretations upon it.

Pragma

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2672 on: June 27, 2019, 09:46:59 PM »
Slater model projected extent for Aug 16th: 5,12 m sq km (a solid second place)

nsidc extents on the same date :

2012: 4,77
2007: 5,39
2016:5,47
2017:5,42
2018:5,64

there won't be ice in hudson by then.

what would that take away from the 2nd place prediction ?

With the usual caveats about extent, a lot can happen in 6 weeks, but I think there is a better chance that the prediction could fail as too high an extent, rather than too low. A lot of ice is going to be sent on a one way trip to Iceland, so we could end up with a lot of very dispersed ice in the CAB, or large holes in it.

The more I learn on this forum, the less I know, and I am less willing to predict anything. :)

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2673 on: June 27, 2019, 10:14:19 PM »
The more I learn on this forum, the less I know, and I am less willing to predict anything. :)

+1 and then some...

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 335
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2674 on: June 27, 2019, 11:45:42 PM »
This is a screen grab of one of A-Team's excellent animations in the test thread, which shows how very little multi-year ice remains this year after unusually high export. The multi-year ice is the white part at the bottom, barely extending past the pole (plus an arm at the edge of the Beaufort death zone, and some pushed into the Atlantic not yet fully melted).

(I'd guess there is something like 2/3'rds of the 2012 minimum extent, fwiw.)

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 890
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 259
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2675 on: June 28, 2019, 12:07:05 AM »
  If only things were so rosy petm .. the screen grab is 4 weeks old and all the 2nd year  ice North of Barnetz has left the basin .
 The pole is covered by  first year ice .. I don't know if that has happened before ? .
 ..Export is picking up again , Nares has woken after a mini-break  .. and .. there are still 11 weeks of export and melt to go before minimum .   

 Look what we've done ! b.c.
 
   
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Viggy

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2676 on: June 28, 2019, 12:28:52 AM »

there won't be ice in hudson by then.

what would that take away from the 2nd place prediction ?

The Slater prediction has its value, but the Slater map, in my view, is pretty strange.  I would not base any specific interpretations upon it.

I covered this in Reply 1487 in significantly more detail but the Slater map is a map of the current conditions and does not depict the extent predicted.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2677 on: June 28, 2019, 12:57:10 AM »

there won't be ice in hudson by then.

what would that take away from the 2nd place prediction ?

The Slater prediction has its value, but the Slater map, in my view, is pretty strange.  I would not base any specific interpretations upon it.

I covered this in Reply 1487 in significantly more detail but the Slater map is a map of the current conditions and does not depict the extent predicted.

Thanks for the clarification.  I know a lot of people respect the Slater prediction, so I will certainly respect that.  But given the confusion the Slater map causes, I have to wonder why they publish it all.  It is, as you state in Reply 1487 really just a differently colored version of the current NSIDC concentration map (they should state that this is the case, BTW).  The map only puzzles people who see it (Magna this year, myself last year), at least in this context.  And it made me mistrust what by all accounts is a pretty good predictive tool.   

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2678 on: June 28, 2019, 01:01:11 AM »
bad EC forecast out of the oven, in my opinion. I leave it to the pros.


Yeah it's bad.


Right now a huge part of the CAB is clearing out and a huge part of somewhere in the CAB the next 10 days at least will be clear.

That last bit of higher Albedo ice is about to turn wet.

As this pattern develops extent loses will pick up. 

Pending on how fast the ESS and Laptev fast ice collapes while the main pack shrinks from dipole melt/compaction plus the hudson bay and Kara might see a mini july cliff.

And the Baffin bay
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2679 on: June 28, 2019, 01:16:17 AM »
Forecast for 850 temps is a signfiicant drop, from extreme values that appear to be close to peak now, to something still warm, but probably reasonably close to average for the last 5 years.  At extended range low pressure takes over, reminding me of 2010 which had a blistering start in June, but stumbled to be an also ran as cloudy low pressure weather took over in July.  Cooler low pressure is set to take over in ESS/Laptev which will test the area hit hardest by the heat with potential dispersion and mixing, but will cool and slow down surface heating.  Warmer conditions will move towards Chukchi and Beaufort.  Beaufort has been quite cool through June but had a really early melt in May, and has a fair bit of dispersed ice.  I think the ice is likely in quite good condition for being as dispersed as it is, and now it will be tested with heat, which will be able to take advantage of all the open water in between the floes.

Overall in 2 dimensions the ice looks more like 2007 for this date, and in better shape than 2012.  Hard to be sure about what the 3rd dimension is doing, but I think it if it was really bad then we'd see evidence in 2 dimensions with worse conditions around the edges.  If the ice is a good distribution of thicker in the middle and thin around the edges than extent and area should drop with similar speed as thickness.  If the ice is uniform thickness everywhere then you can get all the ice melting at once as can happen in a small lake.

I expect July will see a continuation of top 3, with 1st possible, but a large lead in 1st unlikely.  If low pressure takes over as hinted at by extended maybe even dropping out of top 3.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2680 on: June 28, 2019, 01:22:41 AM »
One of those areas where extent increase is counter productive to final extent. However, it could be considered fortunate since it's shielding the ocean from absorbing more heat, which might help future ice through reduction of oceanic heat content and any negative effects that a more exposed barents has on intrusive jet-stream behavior?

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2681 on: June 28, 2019, 02:06:58 AM »
ESS and Laptev, June 20-27

Click to animate.

The ESS was blue with meltponding before this, then it went dull gray and began to crumble.  Looks like the Laptev may be following, currently entering the dull gray stage...

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2682 on: June 28, 2019, 02:11:01 AM »
Slater model projected extent for Aug 16th: 5,12 m sq km (a solid second place)

nsidc extents on the same date :

2012: 4,77
2007: 5,39
2016:5,47
2017:5,42
2018:5,64

there won't be ice in hudson by then.

what would that take away from the 2nd place prediction ?

With the usual caveats about extent, a lot can happen in 6 weeks, but I think there is a better chance that the prediction could fail as too high an extent, rather than too low. A lot of ice is going to be sent on a one way trip to Iceland, so we could end up with a lot of very dispersed ice in the CAB, or large holes in it.

The more I learn on this forum, the less I know, and I am less willing to predict anything. :)

that's about how i see things while if we take predictions as kind of play, but certainly not too serious, especially as long as they are not that far off the mark that it hurts (like new ice ages around the corner) i find it good fun and kind of entertaining, not meant disrespectful towards the topic at hand ;) ;)

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 335
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2683 on: June 28, 2019, 02:27:32 AM »
But given the confusion the Slater map causes, I have to wonder why they publish it all.

The map actually does show probabilistic predictions, as stated on the website:

Quote
One way to think about the plot is that for the area that shows 80% probability of being ice covered on the forecast date, 20% of that area is expected to be ice free.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/about.html

However, the model is purposefully simple. It is just a projection (for the same calendar date in recent years) of the average observed 50-day survival probability of ice at each concentration. It takes no account of regions, so it has reduced skill in regions that have peculiar melt patterns, where it may tend to err high (e.g. Hudson due to geography) or low (e.g. Greenland due to export). (By design, these regions tend to cancel each other out in the integrated prediction.) Just ignore such regions and the map is useful. One way to think of it as an interestingly-colored concentration map.

In fact, the predictions for the Hudson at this time of year are actually interesting. It illustrates just how greatly local conditions contribute to melt. It also gives an indication of how quickly other regions being "torched" might melt out. E.g. The Hudson will be mostly melted in 2-3 weeks, so unless conditions cool down along the Russian coast, one might likewise expect most of the yellows and oranges there to melt out in a similar period.

Finally, even if the map were not useful, "they" would not (and should not) take it down because, as it says on the website, it's not an official product, but a personal project of (the now late) Andrew Slater.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 02:40:56 AM by petm »

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 335
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2684 on: June 28, 2019, 02:36:22 AM »
I think it if it was really bad then we'd see evidence in 2 dimensions with worse conditions around the edges.  If the ice is a good distribution of thicker in the middle and thin around the edges than extent and area should drop with similar speed as thickness.  If the ice is uniform thickness everywhere then you can get all the ice melting at once as can happen in a small lake.

Or the edges (Beaufort and Atlantic) are thicker than middle due to export, in which case... Better pray for cold, cloudy weather.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2685 on: June 28, 2019, 02:45:24 AM »
Forecast for 850 temps is a signfiicant drop, from extreme values that appear to be close to peak now, to something still warm, but probably reasonably close to average for the last 5 years.  At extended range low pressure takes over, reminding me of 2010 which had a blistering start in June, but stumbled to be an also ran as cloudy low pressure weather took over in July.  Cooler low pressure is set to take over in ESS/Laptev which will test the area hit hardest by the heat with potential dispersion and mixing, but will cool and slow down surface heating.  Warmer conditions will move towards Chukchi and Beaufort.  Beaufort has been quite cool through June but had a really early melt in May, and has a fair bit of dispersed ice.  I think the ice is likely in quite good condition for being as dispersed as it is, and now it will be tested with heat, which will be able to take advantage of all the open water in between the floes.

Overall in 2 dimensions the ice looks more like 2007 for this date, and in better shape than 2012.  Hard to be sure about what the 3rd dimension is doing, but I think it if it was really bad then we'd see evidence in 2 dimensions with worse conditions around the edges.  If the ice is a good distribution of thicker in the middle and thin around the edges than extent and area should drop with similar speed as thickness.  If the ice is uniform thickness everywhere then you can get all the ice melting at once as can happen in a small lake.

I expect July will see a continuation of top 3, with 1st possible, but a large lead in 1st unlikely.  If low pressure takes over as hinted at by extended maybe even dropping out of top 3.

Are you talking about the euro on day 10?

It's not cool at all and the ensemble mean has a dipole anomaly going

The gfs ensemble mean doesn't break the ridging at all.

This is setting up for disaster.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2686 on: June 28, 2019, 02:51:02 AM »
One of those areas where extent increase is counter productive to final extent. However, it could be considered fortunate since it's shielding the ocean from absorbing more heat, which might help future ice through reduction of oceanic heat content and any negative effects that a more exposed barents has on intrusive jet-stream behavior?

No that is so little it doesn't matter.

The only thing the barents having ice still does is creates an illusion for some posters here who don't want to see how bad things are unfolding.

Any ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic is a grave yard.

Anther reason some posters can't see how bad things are is we haven't had any major cyclones to break up the ice that has been melting in "relative calmness.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2687 on: June 28, 2019, 04:06:33 AM »
Laptev SSTs are now up to 10C in the bite according to WindyTV/EC. Most of the open water is between 6-9C. (Around the Lena delta water is an insane 17C). Have SSTS ever been this high there? Let alone on 27 June? For the next few days winds turn around and start blowing ice from the north into those warm waters, while the Chukchi will warm up some more as Alaska heats up.

Meanwhile half the basin is above freezing at the 800hPa level, all week long(The CAA, and adjacent areas of CAB, as well as the Kara Sea, the Atlantic front all take a clobbering) Even where the lows are its barely freezing at this height(2000m)

My personal not really scientific(though testable) theorem is that when a sea ice region starts looking like a head, its the beginning of the end for it, soon to distort, fall apart , and ultimately melt. We've all seen the baby elephant head that forms in the Chukchi sea the past few years. The mouth widens, the trunk narrows, and then, ... poof. The southern Beaufort starts out with more human features. So it's been with growing alarm that I've watched the whole Pacific sector take on the appearance of a bearded face in recent days.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2688 on: June 28, 2019, 04:09:05 AM »
But given the confusion the Slater map causes, I have to wonder why they publish it all.

The map actually does show probabilistic predictions, as stated on the website:

Quote
One way to think about the plot is that for the area that shows 80% probability of being ice covered on the forecast date, 20% of that area is expected to be ice free.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/about.html

However, the model is purposefully simple. It is just a projection (for the same calendar date in recent years) of the average observed 50-day survival probability of ice at each concentration. It takes no account of regions, so it has reduced skill in regions that have peculiar melt patterns, where it may tend to err high (e.g. Hudson due to geography) or low (e.g. Greenland due to export). (By design, these regions tend to cancel each other out in the integrated prediction.) Just ignore such regions and the map is useful. One way to think of it as an interestingly-colored concentration map.

In fact, the predictions for the Hudson at this time of year are actually interesting. It illustrates just how greatly local conditions contribute to melt. It also gives an indication of how quickly other regions being "torched" might melt out. E.g. The Hudson will be mostly melted in 2-3 weeks, so unless conditions cool down along the Russian coast, one might likewise expect most of the yellows and oranges there to melt out in a similar period.

Finally, even if the map were not useful, "they" would not (and should not) take it down because, as it says on the website, it's not an official product, but a personal project of (the now late) Andrew Slater.

Hey petm, thank you for this.  It was enlightening to learn how you find the map useful. 

"One way to think of it as an interestingly-colored concentration map" is pretty much how I see the Slater map, and I don't think that the it is necessary if one has the NSIDC concentration map or (better IMHO) if one looks closely and critically at the Bremen AMSR2 images.  If your expertise allows you to use the Slater map on a deeper level then of course I respect that. 

And, as I wrote earlier, if the Slater prediction model works well, then it is a valuable model, period. 

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2689 on: June 28, 2019, 04:10:02 AM »
The heat wave torching the arctic through ESS and Laptev sea seemingly will not stop within a week. The ultimate source of such strong heat wave usually comes from the Indian Ocean. This summer we see the high SST Anomaly of Indian Ocean. A positve Indian Ocean Dipole is also an indicator showing it will not stop. A positive SST  Anomaly also exist along the southern Alaska. However, the cold water is strong in north pacific ocean. That means the heat wave intruding the arctic through Alaska will not as strong as the Russia side. 

Perhaps when the pacific ocean subtropical anticyclone jump northward, the heat wave through Alaska will become obvious. But it seems it will not happen before 2019.7.1.

To the influence of arctic sea ice, we can foresee the continue destroy from Russia side. The cyclone is easy to form in Atlantic side as negative SST anomaly in north Atlantic ocean. It will cause the sea ice drift towards the Atlantic side and killed in the later. I have to say that the weather and ocean condition is favorable for the arctic sea ice melting this year.

It seems that my forecast 2 weeks ago happens to be right!!!
The Indian Ocean provides the main heat for high pressure ridge from Russia side for almost 2 weeks. Now the SST anomaly of Indian Ocean still remains positive and do not change so much. Let us see  SST anomaly along the west coastline of Canada and also the Alaska. It shows strong positive SST anomaly. It begins continuously pumping heat to the Arctic region through atmosphere and ocean current. So the high pressure ridge may begin to form from Alsaka side. I guess the high pressure ridge will hover Alaska for another 2 weeks if high SST in North Pacific Ocean is still on. It should be noted that the SST of North Atlantic Ocean also begins to rise. However, the Atlantic Ocean may not affect arctic very soon. It may begin to show its influence after 2 weeks until most of Atlantic Ocean surface temperature is high enough.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 04:22:20 AM by peterlvmeng »

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 335
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2690 on: June 28, 2019, 04:18:51 AM »
If your expertise allows you to use the Slater map on a deeper level then of course I respect that.   

It's just one more piece of evidence to consider. I am not an expert on any of this by any means.

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2691 on: June 28, 2019, 04:25:19 AM »
It is mostly algae causing the discoloration of ice.  At least, I'm pretty sure of it.

This may well be correct, but it still begs the question as to why such algal growth would be so prominent in the Chukchi as opposed to elsewhere. 

Perhaps it is temperature related.  However, in my experience, the presence of nutrients is often more key to algal growth.  So I think the sediment hypothesis, providing extra nutrients to the ice, should be considered at least as part of the phenomenon.

Thinner ice is one reason.

Wind blown dust and ash provides nutients too. The algae are very brown/grey, if indeed they are the primary cause of the colouration

Wildcatter

  • New ice
  • Posts: 25
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2692 on: June 28, 2019, 04:29:58 AM »
June 22-26.

2018.

Wow! I'm no climate gynecologist, I'm just a newb, but i've learned a lot from you guys (and girls). Much appreciated. I'd seen the latest AMSR but when you animate the Beaufort/CAA images you really see the compromising of structural integrity of the ice in the Beaufort/CAA. It looks like continuous stress on the ice in furthering its "extent", combined with heat + disbursement led to a pool of water off a coast and a massive fracture along the CAA (turns out giant masses of ice suffer poor elasticity), and a SW extent that's largely rubble with 2 outlets -> the CAA tributaries or the giant massive fracture along the CAA, neither of which are very good. Further low pressure systems in this area will only act as a counterforce against the ice fracture closing, and further strain the ice leading to an enlargement of the fracture, as well as more disbursement in an area where it can ill afford it. I'm watching this area along with the coming Pacific water, and with the heat in the CAA (as well as natural melts and pressure from the South/ Baffin Bay), a lot of ramifications on the CAA extent of the Arctic, especially if fracture worsens from continued stress and/or warmer water. Nares losing ground would also be really "un-optimal" in that scenario. My guess is continuous low pressure system stress is going to enlarge that fracture and continue deteriorating the SW extent, probably Pacific water straight into that northern CAA delta/tributary ~July 2, immediately adjacent to the large fracture, and heat in the CAA won't really help.

Every area is pretty concerning. Laptev is chewing through the ice extent over the last year, with exports easing it's path, while the Kara is also doing damage, looking like it might just work with the Barents to snip off that massive chunk to let it die. The fingers of extents don't stand a chance.

The large pool of water and deterioration of the ice next to Greenland doesn't exactly look great either. You see a massive crack open up, that looks to be slammed shut, while that pool of water will be pretty efficient at enhancing melt speed along with the Sea if it stays open. Eastern Siberia looks like it's just a matter of time before it loses the coastal ice, Laptev + Kara passage open with it. I don't know if the low pressure system is going to help if a bunch of Pacific warm water comes rushing up the coast.

I pride myself on being objective (software guy, clients and stuff), so I don't think it's being alarmist to say this year looks potentially pretty terrible.The weather forecasts don't exactly look peachy either. I had noticed another low pressure system was developing in that SW extent of the CAA, along with the disbursement + fracture and heat incoming, and found it quite troubling.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1521
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 533
  • Likes Given: 513
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2693 on: June 28, 2019, 05:51:41 AM »
Is it finally happening?
2019 is having the cliff that will make this year a leader on ASI melting?
At least on the first half of July?

Several places in which we can have some melting: Hudson, Baffin, Kara, Laptev, ESS, Beaufort, etc.
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 27th, 2019:
     9,324,598 km2, a century drop of -116,896 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 06:00:12 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2694 on: June 28, 2019, 06:45:24 AM »
The 00Z GFS is straight murderous for the ice.

Freaking nasty dipole anomaly.

1. The CAA also gets smoked.  Tons of sunshine coming to the CAA

2.  The CAB gets nailed as well.  We have already begun to see the CAB clear out the last 24-48 hours and albedo dropping in response.

A warm Southerly flow will help push the surface melt in the CAB as the weather transitions to a more lighter wind anticyclonic flow with tons of sun.

By the beginning of next week surface melting will be happening over large parts of the CAB.

3.  The Beaufort region is about to finally clear out under a budding ridge by this weekend.  On top of that variations of WAA will be interspersed as well.

This is huge for what happens at the minimum.

4.  The Chuchki and ESS will get bombarded by warm moist Southerly winds long fetching those insane SSTs into the Pacific side ice.

Expect losses in the ESS to pick up big time.

And the Chuchki to start disentigrating.

5.  The entire flow becomes Pacific to Atlantic with the Fram and Barents getting ice shoved into their areas = death for ice.





I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

wdmn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 355
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2695 on: June 28, 2019, 08:07:45 AM »
I usually don't post in this thread in order to avoid committing the worst kinds of speculation.

But, as was said previously, the only reason this is even close right now is because of how much ice there is on the Atlantic side.

The sea surface temperature anomalies appear to be well below average in the Barents and the Kara, while being well above average in the Greenland Sea.

Earth nullschool does not appear to indicate that the warmth is moving from the Greenland into the Barents.

I am not sure if this will change, or how fast it could change, but it seems like it is an important factor, especially if, as Friv says:

"The entire flow becomes Pacific to Atlantic with the Fram and Barents getting ice shoved into their areas = death for ice."

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2696 on: June 28, 2019, 08:17:32 AM »
The 00Z forecast for 850hp temp improves conditions for the sea ice quite significantly.  48 hours ago it was a severe heatwave:



By 96 hours the cooling from extreme to somewhat above average is obvious:






Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2697 on: June 28, 2019, 08:26:38 AM »
Michael Hauber, I wouldn't call it an improvement. The heat is just relocated and will make severe damage to the ice in CAB, CAA and Beaufort.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 612
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2698 on: June 28, 2019, 08:58:46 AM »
Michael Hauber, I wouldn't call it an improvement. The heat is just relocated and will make severe damage to the ice in CAB, CAA and Beaufort.

It is as if the Weathergods had said: Allright, the ESS is now done and gone, we can leave it alone, so let's kill the CAB and Beaufort this time with heat and sunshine. And while we are at it, let's pour some heat at the Barents on T+5/6/7, to kill what remains there...

On another note, since I quoted the Slater projection a few times upthread: It has great record, and as we approach the early September minimum projection (Sep 1 extent will be projected on Jul 13), I will update what it says. I tend to agree that it might underestimate the extent given current conditions, but it is never good to secondguess a model. Anyway, it puts us on 2nd place though I personally think that 1st is more likely. It is unlikely now that we will finish below 3rd.

Slim

  • New ice
  • Posts: 13
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2699 on: June 28, 2019, 09:05:42 AM »
Whats up with the weird dark structures in the laptev fast ice? If I didn't know better, it would look like land masses showing through. What actually causes this?