June 22-26.
2018.
Wow! I'm no climate gynecologist, I'm just a newb, but i've learned a lot from you guys (and girls). Much appreciated. I'd seen the latest AMSR but when you animate the Beaufort/CAA images you really see the compromising of structural integrity of the ice in the Beaufort/CAA. It looks like continuous stress on the ice in furthering its "extent", combined with heat + disbursement led to a pool of water off a coast and a massive fracture along the CAA (turns out giant masses of ice suffer poor elasticity), and a SW extent that's largely rubble with 2 outlets -> the CAA tributaries or the giant massive fracture along the CAA, neither of which are very good. Further low pressure systems in this area will only act as a counterforce against the ice fracture closing, and further strain the ice leading to an enlargement of the fracture, as well as more disbursement in an area where it can ill afford it. I'm watching this area along with the coming Pacific water, and with the heat in the CAA (as well as natural melts and pressure from the South/ Baffin Bay), a lot of ramifications on the CAA extent of the Arctic, especially if fracture worsens from continued stress and/or warmer water. Nares losing ground would also be really "un-optimal" in that scenario. My guess is continuous low pressure system stress is going to enlarge that fracture and continue deteriorating the SW extent, probably Pacific water straight into that northern CAA delta/tributary ~July 2, immediately adjacent to the large fracture, and heat in the CAA won't really help.
Every area is pretty concerning. Laptev is chewing through the ice extent over the last year, with exports easing it's path, while the Kara is also doing damage, looking like it might just work with the Barents to snip off that massive chunk to let it die. The fingers of extents don't stand a chance.
The large pool of water and deterioration of the ice next to Greenland doesn't exactly look great either. You see a massive crack open up, that looks to be slammed shut, while that pool of water will be pretty efficient at enhancing melt speed along with the Sea if it stays open. Eastern Siberia looks like it's just a matter of time before it loses the coastal ice, Laptev + Kara passage open with it. I don't know if the low pressure system is going to help if a bunch of Pacific warm water comes rushing up the coast.
I pride myself on being objective (software guy, clients and stuff), so I don't think it's being alarmist to say this year looks potentially pretty terrible.The weather forecasts don't exactly look peachy either. I had noticed another low pressure system was developing in that SW extent of the CAA, along with the disbursement + fracture and heat incoming, and found it quite troubling.