The map actually does show probabilistic predictions, as stated on the website:
the point is that like piomas maps, the moment something like a map (visual) is published, someone should review it quickly for the obviously impossible visuals. they wouldn't have to change the values or the numbers but what should be reviewed and corrected in such (not only this) maps is:
- not showing ice where is obviously none verified by satellite images
- not showing thick ice where it's impossible in the middle of first year ice and verified by satellites
- not showing ice in the future of the melting season where already now is none
- not showing gains of extent and/or area where the water temps are between 5-15C or >5C to
. leave room for measurement errors
it would be easy and a matter of minutes to make such minor corrections and/or exclude certain regions like okhotsk and lawrence from lists in summer, at least as long as sensor tend to show
fake ice all over the place.
BTW 2019 passed 2012 in extent and 2016 will follow suit in a few days.
race to the bottom is launched i'd say ( bottom = minimum, not zero in this context )