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Slim

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2700 on: June 28, 2019, 09:07:25 AM »
I guess this is actually part of the ESS rather than the Laptev.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2701 on: June 28, 2019, 09:15:53 AM »
I think that this dispersed ash probably did make it to the upper troposphere and maybe the lower stratosphere

I read it went (only) 13km high.
... and ash is far less important than SO2.  The most recent eruption wasn't anywhere near a scale sufficient to affect climate.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2702 on: June 28, 2019, 09:20:28 AM »
The 00Z forecast for 850hp temp improves conditions for the sea ice quite significantly.  48 hours ago it was a severe heatwave:


By 96 hours the cooling from extreme to somewhat above average is obvious:


Let us hope you are correct.  I am pessimistic.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2703 on: June 28, 2019, 09:20:56 AM »
I guess this is actually part of the ESS rather than the Laptev.
I still have to check the arbitrary boundaries of these seas every so often using NSIDC's MASIE@ https://nsidc.org/data/masie.

Click on browse regions and choose your sea. Example attached.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2704 on: June 28, 2019, 09:42:39 AM »
The Slater projection for Aug 16.

It projects that by that date,
- the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route are still blocked,
- the Laptev bite not yet reaching 80 North,
- more Atlantification than Pacification (which was the 2018 story).

While more inclined to speculate on a steepish slope than a cliff, I am with Friv on a shove of the whole lot in the general direction of from the Pacific to the Atlantic, and very likely that both sea routes will be open by mid-August, i.e. more Pacification than Atlantification.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2705 on: June 28, 2019, 10:03:43 AM »
The Slater projection for Aug 16.

It projects that by that date,
- the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route are still blocked,
- the Laptev bite not yet reaching 80 North,
- more Atlantification than Pacification (which was the 2018 story).

As noted upthread, the Slater map should not be taken at face value (especially early in the season), as its description says:
"Methods:Baseline probability of ice for each pixel is made via multi-windowed LOWESS  regression and then updated during meltseason based on survival probabilities which are calculated each day of year for a given concentration of seaice."

So there is a survival probability for each ice concentration, but we know, that 70% ice concentration is sure to melt out in the Barents, but not so sure to melt out in the CAB.

This means that fastmelting areas' actual survival rates (eg Hudson) are overestimated during May/June, etc, while slowmelting ones (CAB) underestimated: However these should cancel each other out, so the baseline numbers should be OK. Also, the maps should become more reliable as more of the fastmelting ice is gone (so by mid July). Extreme weatherevents lead to overestimation of extent as seen in 2007/12, see below. Nonetheless, this is a very nice tool.

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2706 on: June 28, 2019, 10:27:35 AM »
As well as bringing warm, humid air into the Arctic basin, as mentioned by Friv, the twin lows that will develop over the ESS and Bering Sea will push the warm water on the Pacific side towards the pack. We might not get a clear view of that area for the next few days, but if we do get a clear view after a week or so, I think we'll see some big changes.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2707 on: June 28, 2019, 10:57:49 AM »
The Slater projection for Aug 16.

It projects that by that date,
- the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route are still blocked,
- the Laptev bite not yet reaching 80 North,
- more Atlantification than Pacification (which was the 2018 story).

While more inclined to speculate on a steepish slope than a cliff, I am with Friv on a shove of the whole lot in the general direction of from the Pacific to the Atlantic, and very likely that both sea routes will be open by mid-August, i.e. more Pacification than Atlantification.

The title on the image says it is Slater for Aug 16. But that's a picture of the Arctic today.

What's the point of that?

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2708 on: June 28, 2019, 11:08:59 AM »
The Slater projection for Aug 16.

It projects that by that date,
- the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route are still blocked,
- the Laptev bite not yet reaching 80 North,
- more Atlantification than Pacification (which was the 2018 story).

While more inclined to speculate on a steepish slope than a cliff, I am with Friv on a shove of the whole lot in the general direction of from the Pacific to the Atlantic, and very likely that both sea routes will be open by mid-August, i.e. more Pacification than Atlantification.

The title on the image says it is Slater for Aug 16. But that's a picture of the Arctic today.

What's the point of that?
The danger of replying to a post before reading the 20 or so explanations that other people have posted in the meantime.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2709 on: June 28, 2019, 11:16:32 AM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep. If all the arctic sea ice is thin except the Atlantic side, I tend to think the whole arctic will either melt away or in the form of dispersed ice and gone with the wind.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2710 on: June 28, 2019, 11:21:17 AM »
The Slater projection for Aug 16.

It projects that by that date,
- the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route are still blocked,
- the Laptev bite not yet reaching 80 North,
- more Atlantification than Pacification (which was the 2018 story).

While more inclined to speculate on a steepish slope than a cliff, I am with Friv on a shove of the whole lot in the general direction of from the Pacific to the Atlantic, and very likely that both sea routes will be open by mid-August, i.e. more Pacification than Atlantification.

The title on the image says it is Slater for Aug 16. But that's a picture of the Arctic today.

What's the point of that?
The danger of replying to a post before reading the 20 or so explanations that other people have posted in the meantime.

Don't be oblique. Just answer the question. Why is a picture of the Arctic today labeled as Slater Aug 16?

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2711 on: June 28, 2019, 11:23:41 AM »
If the question has been answered previously, you need to read back.
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BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2712 on: June 28, 2019, 11:27:02 AM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2713 on: June 28, 2019, 11:30:43 AM »
The Slater projection for Aug 16.
OK so the map shows - now. And about 2 minutes ago read Viggy's post ( #1487? ) that explains it all. Still interesting to look at the map, step back and have a think about where the ice will go (and stay) geographically over the next two and half months or so.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2714 on: June 28, 2019, 11:33:25 AM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o
No. Worse.

You will be trapped in the circular meta-discussion gyre with no parole.
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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2715 on: June 28, 2019, 11:40:40 AM »
If the question has been answered previously, you need to read back.

I read back. It's pretty obvious from a variety of distinguishing features that the map is in fact a current map of the Arctic.

As long as readers understand that and aren't misled by the label, it's all cool. The purpose of attaching a current map with a label of a future date along with text of future projection eludes me still.



Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2716 on: June 28, 2019, 11:53:36 AM »
The Slater projection for Aug 16.
OK so the map shows - now. And about 2 minutes ago read Viggy's post ( #1487? ) that explains it all. Still interesting to look at the map, step back and have a think about where the ice will go (and stay) geographically over the next two and half months or so.

Your post suggests Slater thinks the Northern Sea Route will be closed on Aug 16.

I'm guessing you were confused and didn't realize you were looking at a current map either.

How could anyone look at today's map and guess thar route would still be closed in mid-August?


Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2717 on: June 28, 2019, 11:54:54 AM »
All of a sudden, everybody rushes for the exit door

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2718 on: June 28, 2019, 11:59:34 AM »
If the question has been answered previously, you need to read back.

I read back. It's pretty obvious from a variety of distinguishing features that the map is in fact a current map of the Arctic.

As long as readers understand that and aren't misled by the label, it's all cool. The purpose of attaching a current map with a label of a future date along with text of future projection eludes me still.
As has been amply explained in the last 24 hours, the map shows probabilistic distribution of melt on top of a map of current extent. Many people have become confused by this, me included, but not many people post a reply to a post from the day before before first checking what other people have said in the meantime.
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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2719 on: June 28, 2019, 12:09:39 PM »
If the question has been answered previously, you need to read back.

I read back. It's pretty obvious from a variety of distinguishing features that the map is in fact a current map of the Arctic.

As long as readers understand that and aren't misled by the label, it's all cool. The purpose of attaching a current map with a label of a future date along with text of future projection eludes me still.
As has been amply explained in the last 24 hours, the map shows probabilistic distribution of melt on top of a map of current extent. Many people have become confused by this, me included, but not many people post a reply to a post from the day before before first checking what other people have said in the meantime.

I wasn't replying to a post from the day before. I was replying to a post from an hour ago by a poster who was also apparently confused and misled.

Seems we have a cluster of confusion associated with the Slater Map with no meaningful apparent utility.

stjuuv

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2720 on: June 28, 2019, 12:23:18 PM »
The Slater projection for Aug 16.
It projects that by that date,
- the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route are still blocked,
- the Laptev bite not yet reaching 80 North,
- more Atlantification than Pacification (which was the 2018 story).
While more inclined to speculate on a steepish slope than a cliff, I am with Friv on a shove of the whole lot in the general direction of from the Pacific to the Atlantic, and very likely that both sea routes will be open by mid-August, i.e. more Pacification than Atlantification.
The title on the image says it is Slater for Aug 16. But that's a picture of the Arctic today.
What's the point of that?
That's a picture of the arctic today showing the modelled probabilities for ice in each pixel melting out in 50 days, which the model then uses to estimate the extent in 50 days.

If you take all the bright yellow pixels all over the arctic, which are labelled on the legend (missing on the latest map though) with 10%, then only 10% of all those pixels are estimated to have ice in 50 days. It might be that in reality, all the bright yellow pixels in Hudson Bay will be long gone by that time, but in some other location, some of those pixels still have ice.

If you look at the Laptev bite, there's a large part of red-ish pixels there extending far inside the 80N line, and according to the legend that is a modelled probability of about 50% for each pixel, meaning that NO, the model doesn't project the Laptev Bite not reaching 80N in 50 days, but rather that it is uncertain where exactly the bite will take place, and if it's a thinner and longer stretch of open water, or rather a wider and less deep intrusion into the 80N line. And there's also a probability that due to weather effects, the entire red-ish part will be open sea, but elsewhere on the map, same colored pixels have more ice. Or the other way around.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2721 on: June 28, 2019, 12:25:07 PM »
Slater map should be deleted, and just the graph kept. This is the only way to avoid confusion, and I never did get what value that map adds.

charles_oil

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2722 on: June 28, 2019, 12:30:34 PM »
I recall asking a while a go and being told that they hoped to keep going and updating the late Slater's work - but I suspect it doesnt have the same personal touch / interest now.


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2723 on: June 28, 2019, 12:45:26 PM »
The 00Z forecast for 850hp temp improves conditions for the sea ice quite significantly.  48 hours ago it was a severe heatwave:



By 96 hours the cooling from extreme to somewhat above average is obvious:




Why did you cut the time stamps off?  What model is that from?

That's a fucking joke.  I guess trolling the forum is allowed now.   

The NA side will never have anomalies like the Russian side in summer on the max temp side above the surface.

But keep up the ambiguous trolling because the ice is fucked.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 12:53:10 PM by Frivolousz21 »
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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2724 on: June 28, 2019, 12:58:56 PM »
Slater map should be deleted, and just the graph kept. This is the only way to avoid confusion, and I never did get what value that map adds.
For the sake of freedom, I don’t care what they post. I think it’s just that we don’t completely understand what’s going on with this chart.
I never saw the chart as “Arctic now”, as indeed the colors do not reflect current concentration but probability of meltout in 50 days according to current concentration and tendency. And the graph is supposed to be derived from that map by integration and who knows the exact algorithm.
What seems clear is that serendipitously in part, the resulting projections of total extent are really good.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2725 on: June 28, 2019, 01:02:13 PM »
That's a picture of the arctic today showing the modelled probabilities for ice in each pixel melting out in 50 days, which the model then uses to estimate the extent in 50 days.

Surely there is some value in that approach?

In a week we should have the PIOMAS data for June. From that even I can produce guesstimates for  thickness in each of the seas. The clever people on this forum can produce a thickness for each pixel.

Using Slater's formula or variant(s) of it, one can produce an "all other things being equal" estimate (as Slater does) for what ice will be left in n days, where n could be 50, 75 (end of season) or any other number of days one chooses, (with error bars?)

And rather than produce just one big number, presumably estimates for each sea?
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2726 on: June 28, 2019, 01:06:09 PM »
Hey, let's play the good old "Spot the Cool Spots" game!


crandles

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2727 on: June 28, 2019, 01:23:42 PM »
SIPN Sea Ice Outlook June 2019 report is out.



https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2019/june

Do we have a thread for discussing these reports? Sorry I couldn't find any, at least not more recent than 2014.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2728 on: June 28, 2019, 01:24:25 PM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o
No. Worse.

You will be trapped in the circular meta-discussion gyre with no parole.


Gerontocrat, thanks for starting my morning with a belly laugh!

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2729 on: June 28, 2019, 01:33:50 PM »
I asked a fellow poster a month ago if he could open a Slater thread .. I foresaw the debate above and wished it not happen on this thread . I would bin the map .. it confuses and annoys .. but the forecast has merit . b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2730 on: June 28, 2019, 01:42:28 PM »
Yeah the Asian side is going to cool off, but the turn is for a really warm Beaufort and CAA with some pacific winds affecting the ESS and Chukchi (which will be hit by The Bering Ram even stronger thanks to the pulling winds)
Plus, Michael Hauber, there you will have the lows dispersing the already weakened Laptev.
And vigorous Fram Export.
As long as there's activity it seems to me it's always bad for the pack once it gets in this state. Generalized dull weather, that could put a brake.

bluice

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2731 on: June 28, 2019, 01:45:09 PM »
Hey, let's play the good old "Spot the Cool Spots" game!
Damn that Siberian coast is HOT!

It seems that also the extent and area figures are finally starting to go down as predicted. Interesting weeks ahead.
In PIOMAS we trust

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2732 on: June 28, 2019, 01:55:18 PM »

 the ice is fucked.

The majority of the evidence suggests that you're right.

The ice doctor who is monitoring the fundamental vital signs can see that the patient is sick. The proof of that will come in time. Don't let other posters drag you down.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2733 on: June 28, 2019, 02:01:28 PM »

As long as there's activity it seems to me it's always bad for the pack once it gets in this state.

+1

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2734 on: June 28, 2019, 02:15:56 PM »
Yeah the Asian side is going to cool off, but the turn is for a really warm Beaufort and CAA with some pacific winds affecting the ESS and Chukchi (which will be hit by The Bering Ram even stronger thanks to the pulling winds)
Plus, Michael Hauber, there you will have the lows dispersing the already weakened Laptev.
And vigorous Fram Export.
As long as there's activity it seems to me it's always bad for the pack once it gets in this state. Generalized dull weather, that could put a brake.

He knows that and everyone us entitled to their own opinion.

But him posting images with no context is trolling because no one conducts intellectually honest conversation like that.


He knows the dipole is in transition at day 4 and he knows warm anomalies on the NA side are not the same as the Eurasian side.

It's pretty freaking bad. 
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slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2735 on: June 28, 2019, 02:25:18 PM »
Some of the people knocking the Slater map may not understand it?

I'm a big fan of it - it's a great approach to predicting future extent. I appreciate what Dr Slater did and also appreciate those who have continued to maintain it since his untimely passing.

I look at it every day when it updates; it gives an indication of where the ice is vulnerable in the coming weeks.

It can also be compared with thickness plots, such as this US Navy prediction for 4 July. (Unfortunately, they use different orientation conventions, so you have to mentally rotate one or the other by 45 degrees.)

Of course we always bear in mind that these are all imperfect models, and we are even aware of some of the shortcomings:

So there is a survival probability for each ice concentration, but we know, that 70% ice concentration is sure to melt out in the Barents, but not so sure to melt out in the CAB.

... Nonetheless, this is a very nice tool.

However, I agree with El Cid that they're valuable all the same in visualizing what is going on with the Arctic ice.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 02:37:13 PM by slow wing »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2736 on: June 28, 2019, 02:41:38 PM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o
No. Worse.

You will be trapped in the circular meta-discussion gyre with no parole.

 :o :D

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2737 on: June 28, 2019, 02:49:46 PM »
Slater update. Aug 17 expected extent: 4,91 m sq km.

nsidc extent on the same date:

2012: 4,69
2007: 5,32
2017: 5,37
2016: 5,40

I won't post the map due to objections above, although it is quite simple and (to me) readily understood.

If anyone wants an oversimplified explanation: consider the blue(ish) pixels as survivors (=ice) and all the others as icefree by Aug 17.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2738 on: June 28, 2019, 02:52:01 PM »
As a minimalist, I am living w/o a computer for the time being since I find it unnecessary. I'm connecting to the discussion with a cell phone which makes sharing images difficult.

If you look at the climate reanalyzer site, the last option on today's weather maps is Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly.

The anomaly in the Pacific on either side of the Bering Strait is literally off the charts. The maximum anomaly is +6C. The anomaly in this region is +5C to 6C++.

With a 1,000 miles of continuous 20knot winds blow through the strait, some of that warmth is moving east and then toward the ESS after it hits the Arctic.

How does it impact the ice in the near term? I'm not sure. The Bering Strait is pretty shallow so the heat may dissipate quickly when mixing with deeper water. There's also the possibility that the remainder of the coastal ice in the ESS will blink out pretty quickly.

Something to keep an eye on.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2739 on: June 28, 2019, 03:20:29 PM »
Some general global context for all that we see happening now in the Arctic, from NOAA
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201905

"This was the second warmest March–May period for the global land and ocean surfaces in the 140-year record at 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20th century average and 0.15°C (0.27°F) less than the record set in 2016 (+1.11°C / +2.00°F)."

"Global land and ocean surface temperatures during the March–May period were warmer than average across much of the world's land and ocean surfaces. The most notable warm temperature departures from average were present across much of the high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, specifically across much of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and north-central and Far East Russia. The temperature departures from average in these locations were at least +3.0°C (+5.4°F)."

The NOAA June report is of course not out yet.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2740 on: June 28, 2019, 03:23:29 PM »
...
With a 1,000 miles of continuous 20knot winds blow through the strait, some of that warmth is moving east and then toward the ESS after it hits the Arctic.

How does it impact the ice in the near term? I'm not sure. The Bering Strait is pretty shallow so the heat may dissipate quickly when mixing with deeper water. There's also the possibility that the remainder of the coastal ice in the ESS will blink out pretty quickly.

Something to keep an eye on.
Actually there's another branch of surface  flow from the Bering Sea that feeds the Alaskan Coastal Current and mixes with Beaufort waters. How the currents sink and become 3D paths below the halocline once they are out the shallow shelves, that's... above my pay grade.
Note that ocean heat excess can also be transported atmospherically many miles into the pack, when winds blow in that direction.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 03:32:48 PM by Sterks »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2741 on: June 28, 2019, 03:33:21 PM »
SIPN Sea Ice Outlook June 2019 report is out.

It's been out for a while Chris. I'm surprised nobody's mentioned it before. No "Dekker" or "Randles" contribution this time, but our very own "Tealight" is bang on the median. No "Wadhams" this time either, when it seems that there is a >0% probability that his perennial prediction will come true?

Quote
Do we have a thread for discussing these reports? Sorry I couldn't find any, at least not more recent than 2014.

You could always start one? Look like being an interesting summer!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2742 on: June 28, 2019, 03:35:48 PM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o
No. Worse.

You will be trapped in the circular meta-discussion gyre with no parole.

LOL

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2743 on: June 28, 2019, 04:06:54 PM »
The map shows current locations of the ice. The colors indicate the probability that ice will be there at the end of the melt season. I think this map is really cool.

Phil.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2744 on: June 28, 2019, 04:20:45 PM »
The map shows current locations of the ice. The colors indicate the probability that ice will be there at the end of the melt season. I think this map is really cool.

Agreed.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2745 on: June 28, 2019, 04:24:37 PM »

The map actually does show probabilistic predictions, as stated on the website:

the point is that like piomas maps, the moment something like a map (visual) is published, someone should review it quickly for the obviously impossible visuals. they wouldn't have to change the values or the numbers but what should be reviewed and corrected in such (not only this) maps is:

- not showing ice where is obviously none verified by satellite images

- not showing thick ice where it's impossible in the middle of first year ice and verified by satellites

- not showing ice in the future of the melting season where already now is none

- not showing gains of extent and/or area where the water temps are between 5-15C or >5C to
. leave room for measurement errors

it would be easy and a matter of minutes to make such minor corrections and/or exclude certain regions like okhotsk and lawrence from lists in summer, at least as long as sensor tend to show
fake ice all over the place.

BTW 2019 passed 2012 in extent and 2016 will follow suit in a few days.

race to the bottom is launched i'd say ( bottom = minimum, not zero in this context )

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2746 on: June 28, 2019, 04:29:33 PM »
SIPN Sea Ice Outlook June 2019 report is out.

It's been out for a while Chris. I'm surprised nobody's mentioned it before. No "Dekker" or "Randles" contribution this time, but our very own "Tealight" is bang on the median. No "Wadhams" this time either, when it seems that there is a >0% probability that his perennial prediction will come true?
Quote
Do we have a thread for discussing these reports? Sorry I couldn't find any, at least not more recent than 2014.
You could always start one? Look like being an interesting summer!

Last year there was a thread,

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2361.msg169066.html#msg169066

NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll

Like PIOMAS the name was amended for each monthly poll.

Who wants to open one and own it?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2747 on: June 28, 2019, 04:31:26 PM »

Are you talking about the euro on day 10?


the permanent use of >5 days out predictions and models is clearly not useful and basically like overly large wheels on a childishly tuned muscle car to seek attention / recognition.

read the english definition and effect from the german term "Effekthascherei"
i emphasize (since years) that this kind of stuff once abused and overly exploited
is damaging the credibility of the remainder to a certain degree. (and i know all the different
opinions about it) ;) ;)

https://dict.leo.org/forum/viewUnsolvedquery.php?idforum=1&idThread=1166299&lp=ende&lang=en

it would be nice if sooner or later such images and statements would be snipped generally.

futher they are a main reason for off topic and personal discussions (like this post LOL)

« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 04:37:34 PM by magnamentis »

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2748 on: June 28, 2019, 04:51:01 PM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o
No. Worse.

You will be trapped in the circular meta-discussion gyre with no parole.

LOL
Cliff?
So who is the next?
Source:http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 04:56:06 PM by peterlvmeng »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2749 on: June 28, 2019, 04:59:42 PM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o
No. Worse.

You will be trapped in the circular meta-discussion gyre with no parole.
LOL
Cliff?
Cliff who? We need to know. It isn't me, honest.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)