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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2800 on: June 29, 2019, 05:06:10 AM »
A quick and dirty insolation calculation could made by making a grayscale version of Worldview's truecolor image for the date, ...

It would definitely be quick and dirty.  Gerontocrat was not kidding when he talked about the cost of developing a model that would accurately account for the cloud effects on albedo. 

Clouds are very, very, very complicated.  They are all different.  Different clouds let in different wavelengths of light that have different energy.  Different clouds also block upwelling wavelengths of light and reflect them back to the surface.

There are many papers on this topic.  The take home message is that it is not a simple matter of saying it’s cloudy so the Ice is protected.  Sometimes the clouds make things worse.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2801 on: June 29, 2019, 06:09:49 AM »
June 24-28.

2018.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2802 on: June 29, 2019, 06:23:56 AM »
Melt ratio continues at record high

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2803 on: June 29, 2019, 06:44:25 AM »
Quote
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (Days 1 through 5)...Easterly winds
will become southerly to southeasterly Saturday through Wednesday.
The ice edge is expected to move north-northwestward 20 to 30 nm
through Wednesday.

Quote
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (Days 1 through 5)...Easterly winds
will continue through Sunday, then become southerly to westerly
Monday through Wednesday. Expect the ice edge to move westward 25 to
40 nm through Wednesday.

https://www.arcus.org/siwo

https://www.weather.gov/afc/ice

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2804 on: June 29, 2019, 07:12:27 AM »
Zack Labe is also worrying about the weather forecast :
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1144626567529684992

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2805 on: June 29, 2019, 07:27:48 AM »
Quote
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (Days 1 through 5)...Easterly winds
will become southerly to southeasterly Saturday through Wednesday.
The ice edge is expected to move north-northwestward 20 to 30 nm
through Wednesday.

Quote
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (Days 1 through 5)...Easterly winds
will continue through Sunday, then become southerly to westerly
Monday through Wednesday. Expect the ice edge to move westward 25 to
40 nm through Wednesday.

https://www.arcus.org/siwo

https://www.weather.gov/afc/ice

Holy crap. How high does the ice protrude out of the water?

You could have 5 foot seas of warm salty water washing over the Chuchki ice for a few days !!!!!!

Not familiar with this scenario, but it sounds like a potential disaster.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2806 on: June 29, 2019, 08:00:30 AM »
Melt ratio continues at record high

Oh, never seen this chart. Thanks for sharing Petm!

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2807 on: June 29, 2019, 09:07:12 AM »
While forecasts from D6-D10 are unreliable, especially operational ones,  it is interesting to see that a cyclone might get its influence over the Pacific side.
EC forecast for D1-D5 continues to remain very bad for the ice.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2808 on: June 29, 2019, 11:04:22 AM »
Meanwhile on the Atlantic side. Shear fractures north of FJL. (top right of image)
Worldview aqua modis, jun29, heavy contrast, click for default.  https://go.nasa.gov/2Xd9ZDz
edit: or is it just cloud?
edit: added jun25 image from nearer the pole. I think it's fractures, click for heavy contrast.
https://go.nasa.gov/2XdMzOp
polarview sentinel1, jun28
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 02:43:22 PM by uniquorn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2809 on: June 29, 2019, 11:22:09 AM »
This is a GIF showing a region north of Ellesmere Island in M8 band.

You can see snow precipitation (bright spots in the right half) and then the blowtorch going over it to melt it completely (becomes almost black, indicating rapid snow structure decrease).

You can also see the pack moving towards Greenland.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2810 on: June 29, 2019, 12:30:18 PM »
June 24-28.

2018.

The three Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Atlantic export, Beauford dispersion, and Laptev bite.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

miki

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2811 on: June 29, 2019, 12:41:55 PM »
June 24-28.

2018.

The three Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Atlantic export, Beauford dispersion, and Laptev bite.

The fourth, I guess, is Nares...

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2812 on: June 29, 2019, 12:42:57 PM »
The fourth is mankind humanity a.k.a Death.......
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 01:20:04 PM by Lord M Vader »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2813 on: June 29, 2019, 12:55:15 PM »
Can't you just say humanity? I am offended by women exclusion, they're as bad as men.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2814 on: June 29, 2019, 01:45:48 PM »


Ultimately, melting can be reduced to a finite number of root causes that should be relatively straight forward for a newbie to grasp.

It would be nice if this were the case but melting cannot be reduced to a finite number of root causes and the dynamic processes that impact melt (upwelling of warm water at depth to the surface for example) is not uniform in its impact across the Arctic as this impact is affected by other features and dynamic processes (ice cover, wind speed and direction, open fetch, currents, sea depth etc.)

It's a complex system, imperfectly understood. Deal with it.

(edit: And the discussion here of the behavior of this complex system during the 2019 melt season by people with different perspectives and knowledge is how we actually learn.)
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 02:08:32 PM by Shared Humanity »


petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2816 on: June 29, 2019, 02:01:50 PM »
The word human still has 'man' in it. So does woman for that matter. But I digress.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2817 on: June 29, 2019, 02:19:03 PM »
June 1-28

Trailing 5-day median

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/

Click to animate

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2818 on: June 29, 2019, 02:28:09 PM »
Amazing~
all gone!
click to animate~
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 03:07:58 PM by peterlvmeng »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2819 on: June 29, 2019, 02:46:00 PM »
June 1-28

Trailing 5-day median

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/

Click to animate

Anyone who doubts whether the Barents and Greenland Seas are up to the task of melting any ice flowing in from the CAB should look at this animation.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2820 on: June 29, 2019, 03:28:07 PM »
My first speculation is that there is a correlation between the speed and timing of area loss in the various regional seas, the Albedo Warming Potential in the various regional seas, and the geographical location and intensity of SST Arctic anomalies.

I suggest cause and effect are in that order. i.e. all other things being equal, early melting means longer time available for a sea to heat up. Obvious examples are the very high temperatures in the Bering and Chukchi now spreading into the Beaufort, and the blob of high SSTs in the Laptev bite.

Now I don't know how much direct effect these warm seas influence the rate of warming of the neighbouring ice. I do remember a poster (was it Oren?) saying - the weather is the trigger, but the bullet is ocean warmth. And the heat in the oceans has been growing remorselessly for many, many years.

But my 2nd speculation that belongs to me is that these high SSTs must inhibit re-freezing (all other things being equal) and therefore tend to reduce ice thickness at the following maximum. I give as evidence that the ice volume maximum is reducing at an average rate of 280 km3 per year, while the the minimum is reducing at a not much higher rate of 320 km3 per annum. This is in contrast with winter maximum extent and area which is falling at a pitifully low rate.

Note especially that Tealight's AWP graph shows 2016 AWP anomaly as the highest and earliest, and that April 2017 volume maximum dipped well below the trend line.

So my 3rd speculation that belongs to me is that if the 2019 AWP anomaly continues to exceed or match that of 2016, re-freezing will be delayed, and the April 2020 Ice Volume maximum will be below the trend line. This does not require 2019 area and/or extent to be a new record low - matching 2016 would likely do it.

My last speculation is - all other things being equal - that minimum will be later than average this year (October 1 - only half-joking).

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2821 on: June 29, 2019, 03:47:13 PM »
Can't you just say humanity? I am offended by women exclusion, they're as bad as men.

No, maybe that should be hupersonity to be nonsexist.
No, wait, huperdaughterity?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2822 on: June 29, 2019, 04:00:38 PM »

Anyone who doubts whether the Barents and Greenland Seas are up to the task of melting any ice flowing in from the CAB should look at this animation.

I for one do not doubt the ice in the Barentz and Greenland Seas will melt out.  It almost certainly will.  The question from my point of view is how far the ice on the Atlantic side will melt back within the CAB, given how far the ice is still out in the Barentz this year.   (I would lean to it melting back as far as the Barentz shelf, but again, I am not sure.)

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2823 on: June 29, 2019, 04:38:49 PM »
how far the ice on the Atlantic side will melt back within the CAB
Ice in the cab north of Svalbard/FJL looks pretty weak but if this drift can continue throughout the season all that melts will be replaced. It's more likely, though, that a period of southerly winds will expose the warm current north of Svalbard at some point. I doubt that ice will be able to drift across it after that.
These are definitely quite large shear fractures a long way north of FJL today.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2824 on: June 29, 2019, 04:48:41 PM »
Can't you just say humanity? I am offended by women exclusion, they're as bad as men.
No, maybe that should be hupersonity to be nonsexist.
No, wait, huperdaughterity?

Can we stop here?  I know it's "just joking around", but intentionally or not, this interchange is acquiring a tone that is mocking of the efforts of women (and men) to produce a world with more equality.  It also communicates a sense that this is forum where men dominate and women must accept their 'second place'.  We should avoid this.  Can we get back to the science? 

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2825 on: June 29, 2019, 05:02:01 PM »

My last speculation is - all other things being equal - that minimum will be later than average this year (October 1 - only half-joking).


Daring!  The decadal trend 1979-2010 (Charctix interactive extent below) was towards a later minimum, but that reversed somewhat in the last decade (2011-2018).   This was counterintuitive to me.  But maybe if ice melts so far back that there is open ocean close to the pole, then that far north open ocean refreezes quickly as winter approaches??
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 05:22:29 PM by Pagophilus »

cavitycreep

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2826 on: June 29, 2019, 05:07:30 PM »
Amazing~
all gone!
click to animate~

Pretty amazing to compare the last frame with the EASE sea ice age

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2827 on: June 29, 2019, 05:24:24 PM »
https://www.arcus.org/siwo

https://www.weather.gov/afc/ice

you are delivering good and interesting content, thanks for that, very much appreciated.

Retron

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2828 on: June 29, 2019, 05:35:03 PM »
The latest HYCOM forecast is sobering - the North Pole is looking increasingly vulnerable, with a massive loss of thickness across the basin.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

I've attached the final frame (forecast for a week's time) to this post.


Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2829 on: June 29, 2019, 05:41:20 PM »
Amazing~
all gone!
click to animate~

Pretty amazing to compare the last frame with the EASE sea ice age
And, as others have noted, that more of that multi-year CAB ice is about to be express-mailed through the Fram Strait...

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2830 on: June 29, 2019, 05:43:31 PM »
The word human still has 'man' in it. So does woman for that matter. But I digress.

woman as well has the word man in so all is well ;) [fun] it, forgive me neven, OT again but i had to ;) ;)

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2831 on: June 29, 2019, 05:50:07 PM »
now i'm extremely and especially curious to see what "PIOMAS" comes up with. if the don't carefully review before they publish i expect a few good laughs. (not evil ones, just fun)

i wish so much that some of the data providers would at least review their graphs and maps before release to correct the most obvious (visible) flaws. not for criticism but to improve credibility towards doubters, noobs and deniers while the latter are probably hopelessly lost in the past ;)

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2832 on: June 29, 2019, 06:17:11 PM »
The latest HYCOM forecast is sobering - the North Pole is looking increasingly vulnerable, with a massive loss of thickness across the basin.

I've attached the final frame (forecast for a week's time) to this post.

To my eyes, there is quite a discrepancy between HYCOM and the DMI thickness, two posts above. I know that thickness measurement is an ongoing issue, but I wonder if the more experienced members would care to comment.

A man with one watch knows what time it is, a man with two watches is never sure. :)

Also, to my eyes, this could be the year that any ice over 3 years is effectively gone, (or over 2?).

The whole thing is very sobering, and there is so much of the melt season left!  :-\

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2833 on: June 29, 2019, 06:24:28 PM »
now i'm extremely and especially curious to see what "PIOMAS" comes up with. if the don't carefully review before they publish i expect a few good laughs. (not evil ones, just fun)

i wish so much that some of the data providers would at least review their graphs and maps before release to correct the most obvious (visible) flaws. not for criticism but to improve credibility towards doubters, noobs and deniers while the latter are probably hopelessly lost in the past ;)

The problem with doing that is that you inject human bias. A model or measurement can be wrong, but at least it is always objective and regular. You can know that the result for one day is produced the exact same way as the result for the previous day. Once you start having humans make modifications, even seemingly obvious ones, you lose that important quality.

The scientists using the data to gain knowledge and make predictions can apply their own reviewing and error correction suitable for their needs anyway, if they think it will produce a more accurate conclusion.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2834 on: June 29, 2019, 06:25:55 PM »
soon we shall be able to have a very exact measurement as to ice thickness at the pole because there will be no more difficulty to make out a "ZERO" value.

open water will be easy to call beyond any doubts. not nice but a clear case.

in short, IMO the pole will be ice free once the drift over the pole will come to a halt or turn in circles or, the most probable, the dirft (current) stays but replenishment lacks.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2835 on: June 29, 2019, 06:26:47 PM »
My last speculation is - all other things being equal - that minimum will be later than average this year (October 1 - only half-joking).
Daring!  The decadal trend 1979-2010 (Charctix interactive extent below) was towards a later minimum, but that reversed somewhat in the last decade (2011-2018).   This was counterintuitive to me.  But maybe if ice melts so far back that there is open ocean close to the pole, then that far north open ocean refreezes quickly as winter approaches??
That is true - but sumfinks gotta give, sometime.

Meanwhile, how about a grenade?

DIspersion vs Concentration
A lot of talk about how mobile broken up ice can make extent data greater than reality (15% rule, NSIDC 625 km2 pixels) - especially this year. The convention is to look at concentration, i.e. area divided by extent to see what is going on.

I thought, as we are talking about dispersion, let's try dispersion instead, i.e. extent divided by area. This also has the advantage of a larger number divided by a smaller number making the differences more marked. I attach the first graph that looks at all Arctic Seas. A ratio of 100% would be solid ice, a ratio of 2 would mean extent dispersed over twice the actual ice there as measured by area.

It is obvious that as the years go by dispersion increases markedly. It is also obvious that something weird happened in 2012.

2012 and the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC)- & Arithmetic

Convention has it that the GAC smashed up the ice and sent it all over the place. Did it?

By end July 2012 Arctic Sea Ice was well on its way to a record low. Area was decreasing even faster than extent and thus the dispersion ratio increased strongly to record levels in early August not seen before or since. Thin fragmented dispersed ice everywhere.

Then from August 2nd to August 14 was the GAC.  From August 9th to end August dispersion crashed from nearly 170% to the 2010's average of 155%. This means area loss was below extent loss. The GAC did not disperse the ice, it shoved it together. Concentration (compaction) increased.
______________________________________________________________________
Contrast this with 2016. Dispersion increased to above 2012 levels until the sea ice minimum.
What will 2019 do? On this melting season thread most say - melt.
___________________________________________

ps: Up above someone posted the dread DMI Sea Ice Thickness graph. I thought that one had a health warning (even more so for their volume graph?)?

« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 06:34:29 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2836 on: June 29, 2019, 06:29:32 PM »
The problem with doing that is that you inject human bias. A model or measurement can be wrong, but at least it is always objective and regular. You can know that the result for one day is produced the exact same way as the result for the previous day. Once you start having humans make modification, even seemingly obvious ones, you lose that important quality.

The scientists using the data to gain knowledge and make predictions can apply their own reviewing and error correction suitable for their needs anyway, if they think it will produce a more accurate conclusion.

i think between stubbornly publishing what computers spit out and bias there is a middle way based on blunt and obvious facts like "ICEFREE" areas, not tiny and insignificant nitpicking but the at times large regions of very fragmented mash and totally ice-free that show 2-3 meters thick ice at times.

only the obvious, that should be possible without causing a smell.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2837 on: June 29, 2019, 06:30:56 PM »
Since I am still learning (old hands can roll their eyes and pass on to the next message) I only just found out what a fantastic tool the Corrective Reflectance Bands 7-2-1 Aqua-Modis filter is on Worldview.  The thicker clouds sure do POP UP.  'Normal' Worldview image for comparison below.

Third image is of the 7-2-1 image tweaked via Curves on Photoshp. 

PS   Still dreaming of a tool/data base that measures and maps when and where the sun has virtually unimpeded access to the ice and open water, even if it is a rough-and-ready one.  I think it would be useful and it seems possible... 
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 06:39:25 PM by Pagophilus »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2838 on: June 29, 2019, 07:03:56 PM »
Meanwhile, how about a grenade?

DIspersion vs Concentration

Convention has it that the GAC smashed up the ice and sent it all over the place. Did it?

By end July 2012 Arctic Sea Ice was well on its way to a record low. Area was decreasing even faster than extent and thus the dispersion ratio increased strongly to record levels in early August not seen before or since. Thin fragmented dispersed ice everywhere.

Then from August 2nd to August 14 was the GAC.  From August 9th to end August dispersion crashed from nearly 170% to the 2010's average of 155%. This means area loss was below extent loss. The GAC did not disperse the ice, it shoved it together. Concentration (compaction) increased.
______________________________________________________________________
Contrast this with 2016. Dispersion increased to above 2012 levels until the sea ice minimum.
What will 2019 do? On this melting season thread most say - melt.
___________________________________________

That was a beautiful grenade.  And it might make sense... early dispersion produces lower ice concentrations in August, allowing for more extreme compaction by the GAC in the fall.  Just thinking aloud and admiring your ingenuity... 

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2839 on: June 29, 2019, 08:11:11 PM »
yeah, first we dodged the bullets, then the cannon balls and now we shall perhaps get a grenade as a reminder that things don't change because they didn't happen yet.

mankind behaves like petty thieves who brake in till they get caught and made fun of the police they night before they got caught because they think if things didn't happen they never will.

there will be new records, we don't know when but chances are "bad" that it happens soon and without GAC, just nice weather will suffice the next time IMO

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2840 on: June 29, 2019, 08:20:38 PM »
yeah, first we dodged the bullets, then the cannon balls and now we shall perhaps get a grenade as a reminder that things don't change because they didn't happen yet.

mankind behaves like petty thieves who brake in till they get caught and made fun of the police they night before they got caught because they think if things didn't happen they never will.

there will be new records, we don't know when but chances are "bad" that it happens soon and without GAC, just nice weather will suffice the next time IMO
It's already happening. The temperatures this week in Europe? Are they a direct cause of the Arctic sea ice or only vaguely related? It is one of the two, so it doesn't matter which really, as it is happening regardless.

Maybe next time it will be 125F over Delhi and Karachi instead of 110F over Avignon and 115F in the vicinity. But there will be a next time and it is probably going to happen again this summer. And then there will be the precip extremes etc that are set. And then the cold will linger again in the Midwestern US and we see the worst-ever year for certain harvests followed by a new worst-ever year for certain harvests.

And while ^^^ is happening, literally as we speak, we still have idiots like weatherdude88 who sh*t-post things like "OMG CAB EXTENT RECORD HIGH FOR DATE" completely ignoring the big picture and the things actually happening everywhere on a daily basis. And it is still tolerated!

PS, I would be worried my previous comment re: heat verifies but in the same places it is already happening, later on this summer. The heat this year has already been all-time record breaking in spots and it is only JUNE. The 2003 European heatwave hit its climax in August.

I don't think it is hard to imagine that as sea ice dwindles down to first or second place in terms of extent / area / volume into and through August, we see a setup evolve where the June heatwave repeats in worse terms across a broader area of Europe. Can you imagine days and days of 100F+ readings in Paris, Berlin, and Rome? I don't see why it is impossible if the current setup has already unfurled just a few days into astronomical summer.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2841 on: June 29, 2019, 09:09:18 PM »
Decimation
 

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2842 on: June 29, 2019, 09:27:22 PM »
Any guesses about how big the July cliff will be?

Previous years in the bottom had lower extents for this date but not as much open waters in the "true" Arctic e.g if you exclude peripheral areas like Hudson and Baffin. The amount of energy as the open water will suck up will be astonishing and with serious consequences by fall.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2843 on: June 29, 2019, 09:33:18 PM »
Catch you later when you've all calmed down a bit. A bientot. :)

kassy

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2844 on: June 29, 2019, 09:45:59 PM »
Re 2835/grenade.

There should be a paper somewhere about 2012 not needing the GAC for the melt result. Never found that (or it was paywalled) but that graph illustrates that well. The season is well away from the 2010/2000 avarage early on.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2845 on: June 29, 2019, 09:55:02 PM »
now i'm extremely and especially curious to see what "PIOMAS" comes up with

The problem with doing that is that you inject human bias.

Agreed. Interpretation is separate for good reason, and why discussion is not results. Difficult as it is especially for non-specialists (let alone non-scientists), we must do our best to weigh and integrate the evidence ourselves (including expert opinion).

But totally agree that we sorely need a much more measurement-based volume model. Come on ICESat-2! :)
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 10:04:00 PM by petm »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2846 on: June 29, 2019, 11:10:58 PM »
In roughly 7-10 days don't be surprised if 2019 is lowest in area, extent, and volume.

The weather sets up to put a huge dent in the chuchki and ESS.

The Hudson Bay gets smoked the next 4 days with very humid and probably warm rainy conditions.

The CAA is clearing out and warming up.  So is the CAB and beaufort.

Both the ESS and Laptec finally face semi dispersive winds with very very warm water being sloshed into the ice.

It's not the most perfect dipole anomaly but it will be more than adequate thanks to fantastic building during June to put the hammer down
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2847 on: June 29, 2019, 11:27:49 PM »
No, the GAC did not compact the ice it MELTED it. The reason the dispersion curve dropped after the GAC is that dispersed ice was more prone to melting than ice piled up on the CAA.

The GAC was not a magic cyclone that violated the Coriolis effect, compacting dispersed ice.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2848 on: June 29, 2019, 11:30:58 PM »
With all the preconditioning and now the sunshine of the next few days at peak insolation to hit the Arctic, a bronze medal for 2019 is almost guaranteed, a silver is likely and a gold is still possible.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2849 on: June 29, 2019, 11:36:37 PM »
Beware of Godzilla!

Do not be surprised to see five consecutive century breaks over next five days or so. Ice in Kara, Grenland and Baffin should be gone very soon. And, as Friv says, all that very warm water from south will humilate the ice in Chukchi and ESS. And parts of Laptev should be smoked.