The 2019 melting season

[Jim Hunt]

There are limits here to what we can demonstrate without visual observation.

Rich - I presented you with a recorded visual observation!

If you wish to pursue this discussion at length please take it elsewhere. How about this venerable thread:

"Importance of waves in the Arctic"

[Jim Hunt]

Wasn't there a description some time back of a field of ice being totally demolished in 24 hours due to an incoming storm with the waves battering their way further and further into the pack?

Errrm, yes. Did you click my helpful link?

[gerontocrat]

Surge of water into the Chukchi?
The classic geographical features required for a large surge of ocean water (as opposed to a storm surge) is a wide channel, gradually narrowing and gradually shallowing. The Bristol channel / Severn Estuary in England is a classic example. There the surge is associated with Spring (US = King ?) tides.

The bathymetry of the Bering Sea is not a good shape for such a surge.

A long period of a good consistent wind over a long uninterrupted fetch will produce a big swell, hence the tens of metres swells in the Southern Ocean. In the North Pacific the steady wind is there, the long fetch is there. But it is interrupted by the archipelago of the Aleutian Islands. (And a swell does not increase sea level - a 6 foot swell is +/- 3 feet from mean sea level ). So all I can see is some warm surface water being persistently pushed through the Strait to some effect.

The only way I can see a really large influx of water through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi is very low pressure in the Bering Sea lifting sea level, plus very high pressure in the Chukchi depressing sea level. Water flows downhill. That does not exist nor does it look like doing so.

But a wall of water? I don't think so. The physical geography defeats it.

[Jim Hunt]

But let's try to logic our way through it.

Please take this thought with you to a more appropriate thread:

[Jim Hunt]

Surge of water into the Chukchi?

Please follow Rich to a more appropriate thread.

Thanks.

[binntho]

Wasn't there a description some time back of a field of ice being totally demolished in 24 hours due to an incoming storm with the waves battering their way further and further into the pack?

Errrm, yes. Did you click my helpful link?

Doh!

[Shared Humanity]

Check out post 2802 which is documenting a 5'+ surge.

You've got water being pushed for 1,000 miles and then through a narrowing opening which amplifies the surge heiight.

What happens when a continuous 5' wall of water hits the ice? My default mental image is that the water goes over the top and floods it. As fast as the water might work it's way through any cracks in the ice, it i ifs is replaced by the continuing surge behind it.

I'm looking for logical explanations for the destination of the incoming flood.

And when the water pushes through that very narrow opening, doesn't the height then drop? I don't think the issue is so much new warm water from the Pacific but the effects of winds over the already very warm water in the Chukchi.

[Shared Humanity]

Check out post 2802 which is documenting a 5'+ surge.

You've got water being pushed for 1,000 miles and then through a narrowing opening which amplifies the surge heiight.

What happens when a continuous 5' wall of water hits the ice? My default mental image is that the water goes over the top and floods it. As fast as the water might work it's way through any cracks in the ice, it i ifs is replaced by the continuing surge behind it.

I'm looking for logical explanations for the destination of the incoming flood.

You have been watching waaay too many disaster movies. There is no flood, there is no surge, at least according to the posting you cite. It predicts what the seas will be, which means how high the waves will be.

Waves travel horizontally, but the water does not, it just goes up and down. Think of a skipping rope, the wave in the rope goes up and down but it never leaves the hands of the people moving it.

The ice will bob up and down on the water and there may be some splashing but there will be no tsunami inundation. There will be a current develop, but substantially less than the wind speed.

Five foot waves will put the larger floes under stress and  probably break them  up. The wind and wave motion will cause some layer mixing, and possibly accelerate melting. There will be compaction or dispersion depending on the wind direction.

The world will not end.

If you want to try and debunk someone else's arguments, please try to use logic and science. Please  leave the name calling and childish stuff behind.

Which is, of course, what he did. There is a great deal of research on the effect of wind and waves on sea ice. And waves from storms can cause significant damage to dispersed floes but the waves dissipate rapidly as they encounter high concentrations of pack ice.

[b_lumenkraft]

North of Ellesmere and Greenland (bottom).

In this GIF, made from M8 Band, you can see the movement of the ice pack and huge areas being blow torched (darkening).

22.06. 08:51h to 30.06. 08:00h UTC

[Shared Humanity]

Is the damage from wave action not mainly from the mixing with deeper, warmer water?

Actually, larger floes can fracture into many pieces, depending on the period of the waves. This is particularly true when the ice has been preconditioned by melt which would be the case of all of the ice in the Chukchi. This behavior has been well documented.

[Shared Humanity]

"Importance of waves in the Arctic"

There is some good research on that thread.

[ArcticMelt2]

SST, 10 days increment

No wonder. On the coast of Alaska, huge anomalies in June - more than 7 degrees in Kotzebue:



The average June temperature in Kotzebue exceeds the last record (June 2004) by 2 degrees.

[Neven]

I've taken some time out today to write a very extensive blog post on current events in the Arctic: June 2019, one hell of a month.

Conclusion:

In recent years, the Arctic has dodged bullets and cannonballs. It looks like this year, it may have to dodge a nuclear bomb.

[DrTskoul]

I've taken some time out today to write a very extensive blog post on current events in the Arctic: June 2019, one hell of a month.

Conclusion:

In recent years, the Arctic has dodged bullets and cannonballs. It looks like this year, it may have to dodge a nuclear bomb.

Let's see if the luck continues ...

[b_lumenkraft]

I've taken some time out today to write a very extensive blog post on current events in the Arctic:

Great conclusion, well done Neven.

[Sterks]

]In recent years, the Arctic has dodged bullets and cannonballs. It looks like this year, it may have to dodge a nuclear bomb.

LOL
Man I have to read that

[El Cid]

Slater model update for Aug 19th (keeps 2019 in strong 2nd place).

Projected extent: 4,87 m sq km

NSIDC extent on the same dates :

2012: 4,55
2007: 5,18
2016: 5,22
2017: 5,29

whoever wishes to see the map you can do  it here:

https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

EDIT: considering that during strong melting momentum the model underestimated (eg 2016, 2012, 2007) extent, this year (given June's weather and the near term forecast) is likely to finish at least 2nd and still possibly 1st

[Thawing Thunder]

I've taken some time out today to write a very extensive blog post on current events in the Arctic: June 2019, one hell of a month.

Thank you, Neven. A must-read!

[Davidsf]

Neven, thank you for pulling so much June data into one blog post, along with context and interpretation. Excellent!

[ArcticMelt2]

If we talk about extreme events, while the biggest changes occur on the Arctic coast of Alaska. If we take the average annual values, here since the beginning of the 20th century it has warmed by 6 degrees.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v4.cgi?id=USW00026616&dt=1&ds=14

2019 year to see even more extreme. March 2019 in Kotzebue was warmer than any other March by 5 degrees at once!

[Alphabet Hotel]

Surf's up at Utqiagvik

You can get some idea of wave height, frequency and direction from this.

[ArcticMelt2]

But the last winter (October - May) in Kotzebue is only on one degree warmer than the last.

For comparison, the last three winters in Barrow are about the same.

[pearscot]

In my opinion, all of the wave action in conjunction with warmer winds blowing up from the Bering will only help to facilitate more mixing (at an absolute minimum) and overall add more energy to the system at large. Not withstanding, increased wave action will do no favors to the ice and the swells will stress the ice further and raise the potential for increased bottom melt. Also, judging by just how much ice remains fractured and in shambles below 80 degrees latitude means less of a 'buffer' from the remaining back to the protected (for lack of a better term).

This whole year is just shocking to me and I really wonder what's going to unfold from here on out.

[b_lumenkraft]

June, monthly mean temperatures (karstenhaustein.com).


60-90N       : + 1.936
66-90N       : + 1.967
Greenland    : + 1.297
Arctic Ocean : + 1.044

[ArcticMelt2]

If we talk about extreme events, while the biggest changes occur on the Arctic coast of Alaska.

By the way, here is the confirmation scheme. In the Chukchi Sea, average statistical warming is close to 4 degrees. A similar value can only boast the Beaufort Sea and Svalbard.

On the other hand, due to the slowing down of the Gulf Stream (increasing inflow of fresh water from Greenland), the North Atlantic is actually the only place on the planet where there is a local cooling.

[bbr2314]

If we talk about extreme events, while the biggest changes occur on the Arctic coast of Alaska.

By the way, here is the confirmation scheme. In the Chukchi Sea, average statistical warming is close to 4 degrees. A similar value can only boast the Beaufort Sea and Svalbard.

On the other hand, due to the slowing down of the Gulf Stream (increasing inflow of fresh water from Greenland), the North Atlantic is actually the only place on the planet where there is a local cooling.

Not anymore... lol

[Sterks]

And notice the Sahara too

[Csnavywx]

North of Ellesmere and Greenland (bottom).

In this GIF, made from M8 Band, you can see the movement of the ice pack and huge areas being blow torched (darkening).

22.06. 08:51h to 30.06. 08:00h UTC

Terra/Modis on EOSDIS Worldview shows this as well, with the last area of snow-covered ice being melted and transitioning into melt ponds. Next two weeks of weather will be crucial to a new record.

2012 transitioned to a much cloudier and cooler pattern after the 13th or so and never did get the raging dipole pattern again after that, yet the damage was largely done by that point and pack-wide ponding resulted comfortably in a new record anyhow.

There's an opportunity to do the same this year, depending on how it goes with the dipole pattern into mid month. A hostile pattern beyond mid month will all but guarantee a new record, though as the western CAB/Beaufort will begin collapsing pretty rapidly at that point.

[Pagophilus]

I've taken some time out today to write a very extensive blog post on current events in the Arctic: June 2019, one hell of a month.

Conclusion:

In recent years, the Arctic has dodged bullets and cannonballs. It looks like this year, it may have to dodge a nuclear bomb.

How great to have an integrated summary!  Thank you.  I learned a lot from it -- I'll be revisiting and learning more.
Given how important SSTs are, do you think the situation of relatively cooler waters in the Atlantic is likely to persist this melting season?  Are warmer waters likely to eventually punch through to the Barentz and beyond?

[Pagophilus]

2012 transitioned to a much cloudier and cooler pattern after the 13th or so and never did get the raging dipole pattern again after that, yet the damage was largely done by that point and pack-wide ponding resulted comfortably in a new record anyhow.

My impression from multiple expert posters is that it was the GAC of 2012 that mixed warmer waters up to the surface that provided the heat for the extraordinary melting that lead to the record low.  This was of course primed by the melt-ponding that you mention, but without the GAC, 2012 may have had a low ice minimum, it would not have been a record low.  Maybe you intended this to be understood, or maybe there is something I am missing here...

[Neven]

I've taken some time out today to write a very extensive blog post on current events in the Arctic: June 2019, one hell of a month.

Conclusion:

In recent years, the Arctic has dodged bullets and cannonballs. It looks like this year, it may have to dodge a nuclear bomb.

How great to have an integrated summary!  Thank you.  I learned a lot from it -- I'll be revisiting and learning more.
Given how important SSTs are, do you think the situation of relatively cooler waters in the Atlantic is likely to persist this melting season?  Are warmer waters likely to eventually punch through to the Barentz and beyond?

In principle, I don't think these relatively cooler waters can stop the ice from melting, if it gets pushed south far enough. But maybe, if PIOMAS is right that there is thicker ice there (compared to the 2011-2018 period), it might take longer. Especially if there's little transport. That's a bit of a wildcard for me. Maybe it shouldn't be, as SST anomalies on the Atlantic side of the Arctic aren't that much different from 2012 (except for where most of the heat is).

[Neven]

My impression from multiple expert posters is that it was the GAC of 2012 that mixed warmer waters up to the surface that provided the heat for the extraordinary melting that lead to the record low.  This was of course primed by the melt-ponding that you mention, but without the GAC, 2012 may have had a low ice minimum, it would not have been a record low.

I'm quite sure the records would have been broken big time anyway (see here). Maybe this year will allow for a comparison, if it can keep up for a few more weeks with 2012, and there is no GAC during August.

[b_lumenkraft]

Fram export June

[Pagophilus]

My impression from multiple expert posters is that it was the GAC of 2012 that mixed warmer waters up to the surface that provided the heat for the extraordinary melting that lead to the record low.  This was of course primed by the melt-ponding that you mention, but without the GAC, 2012 may have had a low ice minimum, it would not have been a record low.

I'm quite sure the records would have been broken big time anyway (see here). Maybe this year will allow for a comparison, if it can keep up for a few more weeks with 2012, and there is no GAC during August.

Just read the blog post you reference.  Thank you, and thanks for the response on N. Atlantic temps.  csnavywx, I also understand now where you were coming from.   I am now much better informed, and I also definitely have that 'the more you know the more you know you don't know' feeling (again).

It is a sobering thought that an extreme weather event may not be required for a new record low. 

[DrTskoul]

Fram export June

Rather choppy

[Jim Hunt]

It is a sobering thought that an extreme weather event may not be required for a new record low.

It may also be sobering to look closely at the 2016 minimum Central Arctic Basin sea ice area in comparison to 2012?

[Lord M Vader]

Great job Neven! One question, how does melting momentum map looks like now compared to earlier records low years after this June?

From EC ensembles, next week looks rather consistent in bringing bad weather for the ice. Especially CAA and the Atlantic sector should take a big hit. What happens beyond that I think will be a key to the outcome of this melting season. If the weak cyclones manager to break through the high pressure dome and take over the weather pattern for a few weeks or so it might be enough to prevent a new record low minimum.

[b_lumenkraft]

Fram export June

Rather choppy

If you run it faster, the clouds are somewhat obscured. If you run it slowly, it actually makes it harder to follow the ice.

I'm still playing around with speed to find the optimum. Will try to keep it less choppy if possible.

[Neven]

Great job Neven! One question, how does melting momentum map looks like now compared to earlier records low years after this June?

You mean the melt pond fraction maps that are shared by David Schroeder? I hope he will share his June map, once the month is done. The maps are model results, which makes it difficult to compare them with other years, especially for different months.

[stjuuv]

Slater model update for Aug 19th (keeps 2019 in strong 2nd place).
Projected extent: 4,87 m sq km
NSIDC extent on the same dates :
2012: 4,55
2007: 5,18
2016: 5,22
2017: 5,29
whoever wishes to see the map you can do  it here:
https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
EDIT: considering that during strong melting momentum the model underestimated (eg 2016, 2012, 2007) extent, this year (given June's weather and the near term forecast) is likely to finish at least 2nd and still possibly 1st

I don't suppose anyone has an archive of the Slater model projections from previous years? I would think it'd make more sense to compare the current projection with projections from the same date for previous years, instead of the actual extents of previous years.

[Lord M Vader]

Neven: yes, that's the maps.😊

In 3-4 days we should get a clue about just how bad this month been to the ice when PIOMAS present their data for June.

[Frivolousz21]

It is a sobering thought that an extreme weather event may not be required for a new record low.

It may also be sobering to look closely at the 2016 minimum Central Arctic Basin sea ice area in comparison to 2012?

This is skewed because the Atlantic side has essentially no open water North of 80 degrees.


On a different note the CAA and the CAB have cleared out a lot.

both regions should see mostly clear skies over 60-70 percent of their area at any given time.

While this is a technical later start in the CAB than some years it's still plenty early to have the same impact in terms of preconditioning for the July 15-Aug 30th Sprint home.

Ironically 2011 was actually the closet to seeing the CAB melt out. 

Next closet was 2015.

Most of 2011s damage happened in June and the first half of July.

2011 was possibly another week of a sunny dipole in the last part of July away from the CAB collapsing.

2015 saw its damage almost exclusively happen in July over a 3 week period of endless sun and land warmth from CAA/GIS.

I attached both images below.

The reason these two years stand out is lack of snow depth led to much greater melt faster.


I feel like 2011 is completely overlooked for having the biggest decimation of the MYI.

I mean it's gone. 

[Michael Hauber]

Current forecast continues to be for improved conditions for ice retention.
- a large upper level low has spread over the ESS sector.  This is already spreading cloud cover to protect the ice.  The surface is responding with only weak low pressure so the benefits of cloud cooling with less of the problem of increased winds and disersion.
- The high pressure is weaker that what we saw over the last week or so.  The strongest heat is not as strong or widespread as the extremes recently seen.  The strongest heat is forecast to be over the CAA, and the CAA/Greenland sector of CAB.  CAA has lots of land and less ice to melt, and the adjacent CAB is very hard to melt.  Also it is normally cooler than the rest of the Arctic, so warm anomalies in this sector represent less melting than they would in say the ESS sector.
- Surface melting momentum is disrupted with the areas on the Russian side that saw extreme heat in June and a big build up of momentum mostly going cool.  The heat is now hitting the Canadian side which has experienced much cooler conditions in June.  However Beaufort, while mostly cool has become quite dispersed so the heat will be able to pour into lots of little bits of open water in between all the floes.  Chukchi has significant melting momentum and will be  on the edge of the heat.

Forecast for EC init 12Z June 30, 48 hours, 850hp temp anomaly:



GFS is running a bit cooler.

850 temps analysed near peak of recent heatwave:



Images sourced from Tropical Tidbits NH forecast and snipped due to the large size of the complete forecast area.

[TeaPotty]

Current forecast continues to be for improved conditions for ice retention.

Lololololol.

I’ve called out Hauber as a troll for years.
He has always engaged in the same bad-faith behavior.
I hope it’s clearer to everyone, politeness =/= sincerity.

[Tor Bejnar]

An item not mentioned by Neven (unless I missed it) is the rather steady movement of ice from the Asian side of the Arctic towards the Atlantic since last NH fall.  A-Team posted a GIF on May 23 showing six months of ice movement.

over the last 172 days a great unprecedented swath of ice has steadily moved from islands off central Siberia across the pole nearly to and out the Fram

[Neven]

I’ve called out Hauber as a troll for years.

I don't know about the trolling, but I agree that calling a shift of bad conditions from one location to another 'improved conditions for ice retention' is pushing it. When everything falls silent, and low pressure/clouds takes over completely, no dipole, no clusters of isobars, that's when we have 'improved conditions for ice retention'. I'm not seeing it in the D1-D6 forecast. Maybe after that.

[Sterks]

According to ECMWF, day 9-10 could be, but we’ll see. As soon as this low shifts its location, the resulting forecast can be quite different.

[Alphabet Hotel]

The entire CAA appears to be melting?

[Frivolousz21]

The entire CAA appears to be melting?

that's from snow on top of the ice melting and the water being essentially lost last trapped in the top of the ice.

Eventually as the structural integrity of the ice fails.

Those lakes slash slawski pools of water on top of the ice cold rain and what will be will be more of a benign grayish color ice like the rest of the Arctic.

This happening now it's actually pretty late compared to other years that the CAA mostly melted out.

If I recall correctly and years like 2007 maybe 2008 2010-2011 and 2012 this process took place in late May or early June.

we saw some of this happened about a month ago but it appears that the process stopped or actually some of that snow repros or got a fresh layer.

Now that is not going to reverse until the fall.


The main reason it's so hard to melt out the CAA channels is because even though they're surrounded by land mass they are located between 72 and 80 North.


When you were or above 75 degrees north these solarmount season is really only from about June 1st until maybe August 15th but probably really a little bit earlier than that.


The ideal way to melt out the CAA. 

Would be a strong blast near record or record warm over for northern Canada in the last 10 days of May that decimates the northern Canadian snow cover and can bring above freezing temperatures all the way into the north central CAA.

If this happens and can trigger the abrupt albedo drop at the surface what name the snowpack.

Say because of that the albedo drops from like . 85-.90 to .65-.70.

If you follow that with a large ridge of high pressure typically in the dipole pattern that combination can lead to early in that area abruptly happening bursted how long it would normally take for solar insolation alone that time of year to cause the albedo drop.

We have seen in early June over the Arctic basin it takes sometimes 5 to 7 days straight sunny skies to cause the satellite to pick up the wet surface versus the previous dry surface.

probably because when that pattern starts that he has to go into not only melting the surface but it also partially gets trapped in the heating the air around it. 


This is why albedo is everything.

Anyways the CAA this summer most specifically the Northwest passage that goes to resolute Canada would need an historically warm July to have any chance of melting out.

It's very unlikely we see it melting out this summer. 

[Rod]

Anyways the CAA this summer most specifically the Northwest passage that goes to resolute Canada would need an historically warm July to have any chance of melting out.

It's very unlikely we see it melting out this summer.

Hmmm.  That is a bold statement Friv.  I have the opposite feeling based upon what I have seen and what the weather forecasts are predicting.   I think we will need a historically cold July for it not to open, but you are the weather expert.   We will see what happens.  🤔