The 2019 melting season

[petm]

I don't suppose anyone has an archive of the Slater model projections from previous years?

2016 is on his webpage and 1995 to 2012 are on a poster there too, but I know of no other archive unfortunately.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/last_year.html
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/Slater_AGU_2013_poster.pdf

[Frivolousz21]

This is for entertainment purposes only but take a look at what the 18Z GFS has and the long range.


That would be FUCKING AWESOME!!!

[Frivolousz21]

Anyways the CAA this summer most specifically the Northwest passage that goes to resolute Canada would need an historically warm July to have any chance of melting out.

It's very unlikely we see it melting out this summer.

Hmmm.  That is a bold statement Friv.  I have the opposite feeling based upon what I have seen and what the weather forecasts are predicting.   I think we will need a historically cold July for it not to open, but you are the weather expert.   We will see what happens.  🤔

I am definitely not a weather expert.


But it's definitely not a bold statement when temperatures this June have been average over the CAA and its been cloudy more often than not. 

[Frivolousz21]

Anyways the CAA this summer most specifically the Northwest passage that goes to resolute Canada would need an historically warm July to have any chance of melting out.

It's very unlikely we see it melting out this summer.

Hmmm.  That is a bold statement Friv.  I have the opposite feeling based upon what I have seen and what the weather forecasts are predicting.   I think we will need a historically cold July for it not to open, but you are the weather expert.   We will see what happens.  🤔

I am definitely not a weather expert.


But it's definitely not a bold statement when temperatures this June have been average over the CAA and its been cloudy more often than not.

Infact is you just look at the last two weeks is been below normal over the CAA.

[Rod]

Resolute already looks threatened.  The 3 day GFS max temp looks pretty bad. 

I’m not saying you are wrong, we are all speculating, but it looks to me like it is very likely the Northwest Passage will open this year.

[Burnrate]

That would be F...... AWESOME!!!

Awesome as in terrifying or awesome as in the ice is saved.  I'm not very good at reading those.

[Pagophilus]

Current forecast continues to be for improved conditions for ice retention.

Perhaps it is worth mentioning of the Atlantic margin of the ice, where the map you posted shows a generally strong positive temperature anomaly.
   
>>  3 day forecast is for winds that ensure sturdy export of ice through the Fram Strait. 
>>  Continued warm winds are forecast to keep entering the Kara Sea, which is rapidly becoming mostly open water. 
>>  The forecast winds will also favor the dispersal and therefore eventual melting of the ice tongues that extended into the Barentz.  These are becoming more attenuated already.

[Rod]

That would be F...... AWESOME!!!

Awesome as in terrifying or awesome as in the ice is saved.  I'm not very good at reading those.

I don’t know what he means either, but I love your question!   This is exactly why so many people are so confused about AGW.  We sometimes don’t know if things are good or bad.  But, overall whatever happens this melting season, we know that things are continuing to get worse.

It gets frustrating sometimes to watch what is happening. Thank you for an honest and sobering question! 👍🏻

[Burnrate]

...
We sometimes don’t know if things are good or bad.  ...

When the arctic is being interesting:

[petm]

Current through the Bering Strait ~0.5 kt and swell at ice edge up to ~1.3 m.

[petm]

And on the other side, most of the week will be brutal for increased Fram export, especially tomorrow (att).

[oren]

Ice is indeed on the move again.

[Rich]

Current through the Bering Strait ~0.5 kt and swell at ice edge up to ~1.3 m.

Thank you for posting this !!

1.3 m ~ 4.4 feet. I took a lot of grief last night for suggesting the "surge" through the Strait would be maintained to the ice front.

I confess to being uncertain as to what happens dynamically at the water / ice interface but I'm not confident that anyone here thus far has the answer to that.

I'm sticking with my gut here and suggesting that there is a real possibility that a LOT of (warm) water goes over the top.of the ice edge.

[Rich]

In advance of the likely dreadful volume numbers coming out in the next few days, the right tail risk for the 2019 season is looking high.

Odds of top 2 season - 60%
Top 1 season - 30%
Below 2.5M km2 - 7%
BOE - 0.3%

I've maintained the keys to a record year are 1) ESS and 2) CAA.

The major momentum in the Laptev and Chuchki has those bodies of open water working toward each other. The ice on the ESS coast is going quick and the vision is the ESS ice pack is becoming an island.  CAA future is mysterious for the time being.

[subgeometer]

The darkening of the pack thru June is pretty stark in this movie. of worldview images. I've also attached the June 1 and June 30 for comparison.

We need a lot of bright white cloud

Edit: replaced the movie with one half the size to see if it displays the Atlantic side on the page

[Michael Hauber]

I don't know about the trolling, but I agree that calling a shift of bad conditions from one location to another 'improved conditions for ice retention' is pushing it.

It is a shift of the heat from an area where it is easy to melt the ice to an area where it is hard to melt the ice.  It is an overall reduction in the intensity of the heat with the area forecast to be at or above +10C anomalies a fraction of what we say several days ago.  It is an increase in cloudiness due to upper level low pressure activity which is already very obvious in MODIS vies of the Arctic.

I'm puzzled as to how anyone could not recognise the substantial reduction in intensity of heat within the arctic evident in these two frames:

When everything falls silent, and low pressure/clouds takes over completely, no dipole, no clusters of isobars, that's when we have 'improved conditions for ice retention'. I'm not seeing it in the D1-D6 forecast. Maybe after that.

Considering how extreme conditions were for much of June we don't need perfect ice retention conditions to note an improvement.  Pretty much any type of weather would actually be an improvement.

[lifeblack]

Current through the Bering Strait ~0.5 kt and swell at ice edge up to ~1.3 m.

Thank you for posting this !!

1.3 m ~ 4.4 feet. I took a lot of grief last night for suggesting the "surge" through the Strait would be maintained to the ice front.

At the risk of potentially looking like I'm 'piling on', (I hope I'm not), I think you may be confusing surge (temporary and local sea level rise) with swell (wave) height.

[binntho]

Current through the Bering Strait ~0.5 kt and swell at ice edge up to ~1.3 m.

Thank you for posting this !!

1.3 m ~ 4.4 feet. I took a lot of grief last night for suggesting the "surge" through the Strait would be maintained to the ice front.

I confess to being uncertain as to what happens dynamically at the water / ice interface but I'm not confident that anyone here thus far has the answer to that.

I'm sticking with my gut here and suggesting that there is a real possibility that a LOT of (warm) water goes over the top.of the ice edge.

You really have no idea what you are talking about Rich. This is not at all the surge you were talking about, only normal ocean swells in moderately high winds, and fairly modest swells at that. And there is absolutely no change of any warm water going over the top of the ice edge.

[Rich]

A grasp of the real world means understanding that a surge through the Bering Strait is inevitable. It not only provides a narrowing point for an incoming flow of water, it is also very shallow.

Well, 82 km can perhaps be considered narrow, and an average depth of 50m is of course nothing compared to the deep blue sea. But thinking that this will somehow cause a 1m "surge" that will damage ice 400 kilometres away is beyond silly.

Now that we have confirmation of 1.3m "swell" 400km away from the Strait, perhaps you'll rethink your condescending remarks?

fwiw - You're obviously not alone in your resistance to the idea that I have proposed that the current incoming flow of 5-10C water through the Strait is an important event in 2019.

Jim Hunt has suggested I take the conversation to another thread. I'm rejecting his suggestion on the grounds that this event may be as significant as anything else taking place at this point in time.

If anyone has information about the height of the ice at the edge, that would be a welcome addition to the conversation.

[Pragma]

1.3 m ~ 4.4 feet. I took a lot of grief last night for suggesting the "surge" through the Strait would be maintained to the ice front.

I confess to being uncertain as to what happens dynamically at the water / ice interface but I'm not confident that anyone here thus far has the answer to that.

I'm sticking with my gut here and suggesting that there is a real possibility that a LOT of (warm) water goes over the top.of the ice edge.

As has been suggested several times already, this is not the appropriate thread, so I have replied in "Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves"

[Neven]

Considering how extreme conditions were for much of June we don't need perfect ice retention conditions to note an improvement.  Pretty much any type of weather would actually be an improvement.

'Improvement' doesn't necessarily mean 'good'. Bad conditions shifting from one place to the next, is actually bad overall (you can't have bad conditions everywhere at the same time). If your 'improvement' lasts for a week or two, a new record low minimum will be almost guaranteed this year.

[Rich]

As has been suggested several times already, this is not the appropriate thread, so I have replied in "Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves"

I have noted the suggestion that the threat of warm water pouring through the Bering Strait in 2019 does not belong in the 2019 melting season thread. The GFS is telling us that we should expect this flow to continue for at least 5 days.

What I don't understand is the criteria by which a particular topic should be excluded from the 2019 melting season discussion.

If Neven says it doesn't belong here, I'll follow his lead. I'm not inclined to abandon a topic simply because it encounters some resistance nor will I persist simply for the sake of being stubborn.

If someone can prove that there is no risk of substantial amounts of water going over the ice edge, I'll back off.

[Michael Hauber]

'Improvement' doesn't necessarily mean 'good'.

Agreed

If your 'improvement' lasts for a week or two, a new record low minimum will be almost guaranteed this year.

Do you mean if the improvement only lasts a week or two and then we are back to extreme conditions like a week ago?  That would put us at high chance or record minimum in my opinion. 

If it improves further after a week or two we could be looking at something more like 3rd.

[Neven]

If Neven says it doesn't belong here, I'll follow his lead. I'm not inclined to abandon a topic simply because it encounters some resistance nor will I persist simply for the sake of being stubborn.

If someone can prove that there is no risk of substantial amounts of water going over the ice edge, I'll back off.

It belongs here for a short while. Announce the prediction, preferably with graphs/maps/other images, and then wait how it plays out, post animations or whatever to show how the surge affected the ice, beyond what would normally be expected (ie massive flash meting at the edges without a cyclone nearby).

What doesn't belong here, is a general discussion on waves and how they affect ice. For that, two other threads have already been suggested.

What also doesn't belong here, is a meta-discussion on what can be discussed or not, coupled with drama queen behaviour ('people are piling on me!'). This is the melting season thread where we discuss events in near real-time.

[Aluminium]

June 26-30.

2018.

[Neven]

If it improves further after a week or two we could be looking at something more like 3rd.

That's probably what most of us thought in 2012 as well, when the weather improved during the second half of July. Let's just wait what PIOMAS has to say, and keep melting momentum in the backs of our minds.

[Glenn_Tamblyn]

Rich

I just posted a comment in the waves thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.100.html

[Stephan]

@Aluminium's latest posting.
The Laptev bite has almost reached 80°N.
The two fringes in Barents Sea are now pushed WNW-wards, so the Barents Sea will clear up the next days.
I wonder when the ice SE of Wrangel Island will be pushed away. It can't take a lot of time.

[bbr2314]

00z EURO is way worse through 168

[Human Habitat Index]

In advance of the likely dreadful volume numbers coming out in the next few days, the right tail risk for the 2019 season is looking high.

Odds of top 2 season - 60%
Top 1 season - 30%
Below 2.5M km2 - 7%
BOE - 0.3%

I've maintained the keys to a record year are 1) ESS and 2) CAA.

The major momentum in the Laptev and Chuchki has those bodies of open water working toward each other. The ice on the ESS coast is going quick and the vision is the ESS ice pack is becoming an island.  CAA future is mysterious for the time being.

I'll take the 300/1 implied odds for a BOE . the CAA is being heated and combined with a windy Fram, the whole icepac seems vulnerable structurally.

[Lord M Vader]

EC 00 run puts the sea ice at Death row....

[bbr2314]

EC 00 run puts the sea ice at Death row....

Ridic

Easily #1 by 7/10 if verifies IMO



All the ice that appears "good" on the interior of the PAC front (closer to CAB) is 90-95% FYI and will turn to mush in the next two weeks and be disappearing or gone by 8/1. It is already melt ponding but some modeling has its thickness much higher than other modeling and I am inclined to believe HYCOM.

[bbr2314]

To my eyes this is what a 2M KM^2 September area minimum might look like in July

[Frivolousz21]

So let is all understand what Michael Hauber is saying folks...

The pattern has shifted from a reverse dipole anomaly that was high pressure dominated and brought big time HEAT/SUN to large areas of EASY TO MELT OUT FIRST YEAR ICE.

while protecting the last vestiges of the CRITICALLY IMPORTANT MULTI-YEAR ICE with persistent cloudy, cool, and at times snowy conditions.

Now we are settling into a dipole anomaly pattern that has already cleared out 75% of the CLOUD COVER IN THE CAB WHERE ALL OF THE MULTI-YEAR ICE IS. 

Visible satellite imagry shows the last AREA OF SNOW COVERED ICE(WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO BE MYI) HAS MELTED.

NOW THE WEATHER MODELS FOR THE FORSEABLE FUTURE INUNDATE THE CAB, BEAUFORT, AND CAA WITH WARMTH, RAIN/DRIZZLE, AND SUN.  WHILE KEEPING A PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC OCEAN GENERAL WIND REGIME WHICH....



FLUSHES THE MYI IN THE CAB DOWN THE FRAM TOILET

PUSHES RECORD WARM BERING/CHUCHKI/CONTENENTIAL SHELF WATERS TOWARDS THE ICE PACK AND ESS.

THIS ALSO PUSHES BEAUFORT ICE POLEWARD INCREASING HEAT TRANSFER TO THAT ICE AND OPENING UP MORE WATER AREA TO HOLD/TRANSFER MORR HEAT TO THE NEARBY MYI

THIS ALSO DISPERSES ICE TOWARDS THE LAPTEV SEA WHERE SSTS IN THE 4-8C RANGE AWAIT THAT ICE. 


THIS ALSO BRINGS WAA AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE CAA WHICH UP UNTIL NOW WAS ALSO PROTECTED.  IN FACT THERE IS/WAS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE N/NE CAA.  THAT IS VANISHING LIKE A FART IN THE WIND.

JUST LIKE THE MYI HAS STARTED TOO AS WELL.



So how on Earth is this dipole anomaly pattern better than the one I that protected this ice all June?


Ill hang up and listen

[oren]

Very well put.

[Jim Hunt]

This is skewed because the Atlantic side has essentially no open water North of 80 degrees.

Agreed. However I was suggesting looking at 2016, not 2019.

[Jim Hunt]

I know of no other archive unfortunately.

I know of an (incomplete) one:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#SPIE

[JayW]

 

@Aluminium's latest posting.
The Laptev bite has almost reached 80°N.

Indeed
Chick to run

[bbr2314]

2019 vs. PIOMAS #1 and #2 as of 7/1 (data: 6/15-28)

Not even CLOSE wrt end of June temps

[Neven]

Very well put.

Yes, especially about that fart in the wind. 

[Frivolousz21]

If we are being honest the only thing Michael Hauber has proven is that he cares a lot more about "OPTICS" than he does about the environment or in this case three cryosphe.





The mind set of SOMEONE who DEMONSTRATES that they see a DIPOLE anomaly as better for the ice than a REVERSE DIPOLE that is ridge DOMINANT so it brings great heat from the Eurasian interior and bombards it poleward past the KONTENENTIAL SHELF but does not PENETRATE into the CAB leaving the only important ICE left well PROTECTED.



This guy Michael Hauber cares so much about "OPTICS" that IN HIS MIND A DIPOLE ANOMALY IS BETTER FOR THE ICE THAN A REVERSE DIPOLE BECAUSE MYI IS HARDER TO MELT BUT THE FYI MIGHT SURVIVE LONGER NOW???

WHILE THE MYI WHICH WAS LIKELY SEEING ALMOST NO MELT IS NOW GOING TO SEE SUNSTAINSIAL MELT.

JUST GOING OFF SO FAR AND THE DATA/FORECASTS WE HAVE THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL COST THE MYI 25 PERCECT OF IT'S THICKNESS MINIMUM.   BUT THAT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 50 PERCENT OR MORE.


But in Michael Haubers mind now there is a chance SOME/MORE FYI survives?


Which COULD PREVENT A NEW RECORD LOW IN EXTENT/AREA OR EVEN PREVENT A TOP 3 FINISH?

AT THE EXPENSE OF THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE MYI.

SO THIS MIND VALUES THERE NOT BEING A NEW



TWO DIMENSIONAL


 RECORD LOW AS BETTER FOR THE ARCTIC SEA ICE WHILE LOSING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MYI...

VERSUS A NEW RECORD LOW BUT THE MYI STAYS WELL PROTECTED POTENTIALLY SOMETHING TO BUILD ON.



THOSE TWO DIMENSIONAL OPTICS CAN REALLY MESS WITH A MAN.





Ok, I am done personally addressing Michael Hauber.  My apologies.

[bbr2314]

The only year that comes close to 2019 from 6/16-28 was 2007. But that year is still way colder than this year. Most years saw a steepening and decline in volume loss relative to normal anomalies in June PIOMAS, 2019 may see a steep decline continue through / past July 1st (relative to normal).

Based on ESRL data I would think this year is a very likely contender for #1 volume loss in second half of June in the satellite record and we will easily be below both 2012 and 2007 by 7/1.

[subgeometer]

Current through the Bering Strait ~0.5 kt and swell at ice edge up to ~1.3 m.

Thank you for posting this !!

1.3 m ~ 4.4 feet. I took a lot of grief last night for suggesting the "surge" through the Strait would be maintained to the ice front.

I confess to being uncertain as to what happens dynamically at the water / ice interface but I'm not confident that anyone here thus far has the answer to that.

I'm sticking with my gut here and suggesting that there is a real possibility that a LOT of (warm) water goes over the top.of the ice edge.

You really have no idea what you are talking about Rich. This is not at all the surge you were talking about, only normal ocean swells in moderately high winds, and fairly modest swells at that. And there is absolutely no change of any warm water going over the top of the ice edge.

8 C water will work away at the ice without any help from big swells. That area is about to get another 25mm of rain after the last bout a couple of days ago. As temps start to drop in August, big swells are all too likely, with long fetches to develop in.

The latest GFS forecast on Climate Reanalyser (1 july, 00z)has taken a turn for the worst, with an obscene intrusion of heat and moisture from the pacific, and heat everywhere in 2nd half of forecast. hopefully its wrong, but a bit scary

[Frivolousz21]

Also storm swelling on the backs of that meager wind isn't pushing some wall of warm water over the ice.

That's ridiculous.


This forum/blog and the old Easternuswx/americanwx forums and the old Jeff Masters early to mid 2000s blogs and all the way back to accuweather and some other regionalized forums some 20 old years ago we have been disecting the all things arctic sea ice for decades.


Rich, don't you think in all that time if something as BAD for the ice as a wall of warm water could roll over the top of the ice pack due to weak swelling this phenomenom would be extensively documented?

Those winds/swells are weak suace.  We have seen wind fetches 2000 miles+ long with 25-45 KT winds 500 miles wide slam into the ice for days coming through the North Atlantic.

We have seen this actually set up with a near straight path from the Norwegian Seas to Svalbard come for a couple days in a row with swells 2-3X the height of those you are talking about.

And no the ice wasn't crushed like it was a tsunami.


It is what it is.

[b_lumenkraft]

I'm puzzled as to how anyone could not recognise the substantial reduction in intensity of heat within the arctic evident in these two frames:

2m temps forecast attached.

[Jim Hunt]

Jim Hunt has suggested I take the conversation to another thread.

See Glenn's response and also: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.msg209753.html#msg209753

[Ice Shieldz]

With the lessening of heat and sun on weakened Eurasian side ice, and melting focused on multi-year CAA side ice, extent losses might remain nominal for a while. However, Friv may be foreshadowing a scenario where the CAA-side side plays catchup to Eurasian-side and then later in the season the whole friggin basin culminates all that momentum with huge extent cliff(s).

[ajouis]

Looking at the 26-30 asmr2 gif posted above, a few things stand out. There has been a brightening trend in the ess (ie higher concentration) which I personally think is an artifact, and the ess has even seen marginal gains near the shore which i don t know if they are false or just a reversal to earlier area after meltponds drain. There is an interesting phenomenon developing where the last ice connecting the pack to alaska was, a quickly growing bite, surely due to currents and extremely warm waters, seems early for this kind of action here, we re seeing the result of Pacification. The beaufort is ever spreading, but really look bad structurally, none of that will survive to august. In similar news the caa cab crack is on again. Finally the fram export seems to be increasing which is consistent with the forecasts other posters gave. Whatever future conditions are, if the export persists and the siberian coast continues to lose ice, we ll have a bad season, already very clear in the north american side.

[Rich]

<edit Neven: I've moved your comment to the appropriate thread, the last time I'm doing that. You can invite friv to continue there.>

[be cause]

is this really the thread for straw men ? b.c.