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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3000 on: July 01, 2019, 11:06:59 AM »
Another interesting thing of the last EC run is that high pressures don’t entirely abandon Greenland, while at the end of the previous run the strong ridge was displaced to the Atlantic. Again this is day 8-10, but perhaps it has to do with the worsening of the forecast at 5-10 day range.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3001 on: July 01, 2019, 11:12:45 AM »
I think there’s being massive transport of warm water but underneath of the ice.
I recall a storm in late August 2015, low in the 970s, over scattered floes of Beaufort, was able to pull a fetch of hundreds of miles, and the effect was super clear in the concentration maps. Bundles of floes dissapeared in hours/days.

I suggest we wait to see some sort of effect. I think it will be slow now, but like a silent killer from Bering.

ajouis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3002 on: July 01, 2019, 11:28:37 AM »
I totally agree with you Sterks on the effect of warm water, though i still don't fully understand how it has such a striking effect in august but is lacking now when it has most insolation and already high temps against fragmented places like beaufort.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3003 on: July 01, 2019, 11:43:43 AM »
<snip, no more about waves, go the appropriate thread; N.>
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 11:47:15 AM by Neven »

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3004 on: July 01, 2019, 12:52:49 PM »

That's probably what most of us thought in 2012 as well, when the weather improved during the second half of July. Let's just wait what PIOMAS has to say, and keep melting momentum in the backs of our minds.

Well if I remember right I didn't think 2012 was going to be a big melt season. One thing I learned from 2012 was that heat wasn't the full story of a melt season, and my current theory is that the high level of dispersion seen deep in the ice pack in 2012, followed by further heat was the key factor in making 2012 a big melt season.  Early start to melt pond probably important as well.

2016 - June was quite cold, but dispersion quite high.  That was followed by very hot temperatures in July, and we got to second place.  Looking back at images near minimum the ice was much closer to 2012 than the extent stat suggests.

I think there would be a much higher chance of a record this year if there was more dispersion, and that other than Beaufort region dispersion is on the low side this year.
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3005 on: July 01, 2019, 12:53:56 PM »
ajouis, the ice in the Beaufort is quite thick, as it was exported from the CAB during the winter (and again recently). Any effects are currently invisible, but they are eating at the thickness. It all becomes visible in August when the thickness reaches the threshold of zero.

On a different note, the Inner Basin ice area is still leading. This has been going for quite a while, and is having an effect on the Albedo-Warming Potential in the High Arctic. Coupling this data with the relatively clear skies over the basin this month, and the fact that half the CAB is made of FYI due to the sustained transport since March, and 2019 is still solidly in a leading position aiming at a 1st-3rd place finish.

Thanks to Wipneus and Tealight for the charts.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3006 on: July 01, 2019, 01:02:10 PM »
<edit Neven: Moved your comment to the appropriate thread as well. Please, refrain from further comments on waves.>
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 01:54:54 PM by Neven »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3007 on: July 01, 2019, 01:16:27 PM »

That's probably what most of us thought in 2012 as well, when the weather improved during the second half of July. Let's just wait what PIOMAS has to say, and keep melting momentum in the backs of our minds.

Well if I remember right I didn't think 2012 was going to be a big melt season. One thing I learned from 2012 was that heat wasn't the full story of a melt season, and my current theory is that the high level of dispersion seen deep in the ice pack in 2012, followed by further heat was the key factor in making 2012 a big melt season.  Early start to melt pond probably important as well.

2016 - June was quite cold, but dispersion quite high.  That was followed by very hot temperatures in July, and we got to second place.  Looking back at images near minimum the ice was much closer to 2012 than the extent stat suggests.

I think there would be a much higher chance of a record this year if there was more dispersion, and that other than Beaufort region dispersion is on the low side this year.


July 2016 was not "hot"


And 2019 has lower sea ice area than 2012 on this date.


Do you understand just because you can't get on the 1,2,4km resolutions on Lance modis and see blatent open water doesn't mean the ice is wall to wall.

The first image is of the Beaufort.  Invade anyone isn't aware many of those floes have miles of open ocean between they.

Some have 10-20+ miles between them.

The next image is the ESS.

Then the ESS zoomed in.

And we can clearly see there is open water between the ice floes.

The main reason the ice floes are huge chunks in the Beaufort is because it's the remaining thicker MYI and it's structural integrity is strong enough that it hasn't shattered into pieces like the ESS has.

And even tho the Beaufort has all that pretty open water it will be harder for the Beaufort/WCAB to melt out than the ESS. 


« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 01:40:07 PM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3008 on: July 01, 2019, 01:19:46 PM »

I think there would be a much higher chance of a record this year if there was more dispersion, and that other than Beaufort region dispersion is on the low side this year.

Other prominent examples of dispersion this year.

CAB to Fram / Greenland Sea
CAB to Nares / Baffin
Laptev/Kara/CAB to Barents

All of these are examples of processes which are thinning the ice out and moving it to a destination where it will certainly melt.

The argument that dispersion is low this year is not a good one.

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3009 on: July 01, 2019, 02:44:37 PM »
Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 will not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent. We may not end up in the top 5 in a sea ice area metric (looking at UH AMSR2 and NSIDC daily data and extrapolating).

The regions that will matter at the end of the 2019 melt season are the Central Arctic Basin, East Siberian sea, Beautfort sea, Greenland sea, and Canadian Archipelago.

For the most part, we are lagging the highest melt years in these regions (There are 5 years that lead 2019 in all these areas combined).

There is too much high latitude ice in the critical regions. All the subjective interpretation of data will not translate to reality, no matter how many members reiterate it.

By the end of the first week of August, it will become evident that 2019 will be ordinary, as it relates to sea ice minimums over the last decade.








be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3010 on: July 01, 2019, 02:56:29 PM »
hyperbole replaced by hyperbollocks ! If weatherdud would only look at Gerontocrat's posting 'the inner basin is still leading' .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3011 on: July 01, 2019, 03:01:49 PM »


I'm sticking with my gut here and suggesting that there is a real possibility that a LOT of (warm) water goes over the top.of the ice edge.

That might be indigestion. ;)

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3012 on: July 01, 2019, 03:07:55 PM »
In advance of the likely dreadful volume numbers coming out in the next few days, the right tail risk for the 2019 season is looking high.

Odds of top 2 season - 60%
Top 1 season - 30%
Below 2.5M km2 - 7%
BOE - 0.3%

I've maintained the keys to a record year are 1) ESS and 2) CAA.

The major momentum in the Laptev and Chuchki has those bodies of open water working toward each other. The ice on the ESS coast is going quick and the vision is the ESS ice pack is becoming an island.  CAA future is mysterious for the time being.

Where are you getting these probabilities?

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3013 on: July 01, 2019, 03:34:55 PM »
hyperbole replaced by hyperbollocks ! If weatherdud would only look at Gerontocrat's posting 'the inner basin is still leading' .. b.c.

Right, because seas such as the Laptev that are in the "inner basin", that have a significant effect now, will have a greater effect on basin wide values come September (sarcasm).


Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3014 on: July 01, 2019, 03:39:48 PM »
Some update on what’s going on in the Chukchi ice edge under the clouds.
A noticeable recess of the edge n the last three days. As always when the edge is still over the shelf and the Bering inflow currents are pushing, the recess of the edge takes the shape of the several Chukchi currents mixing into the edge, note that the currents are forced to be the same from surface to bottom (no sinking) as they surround the shoals and islands by virtue of Coriolis.

The Chukchi shelf break is still well covered by ice.
Edit: AMSR2 UH one-week images from Jun 24 to Jun 30 (gif pauses)
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 03:57:31 PM by Sterks »

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3015 on: July 01, 2019, 04:07:04 PM »
Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 will not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent. We may not end up in the top 5 in a sea ice area metric (looking at UH AMSR2 and NSIDC daily data and extrapolating).

Wow, I didn't know you could predict the weather that far out, WD88!

Is it okay if I ban you if you are wrong, come September?  :)
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Viggy

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3016 on: July 01, 2019, 04:07:23 PM »
Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 WILL not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent.

Well, that settles that guys! Lets shut the thread down and reconvene for the next freezing season.

weatherdude88 has apparently developed the ability to make 'definitive' September predictions in early July, using only historical extent data!

All the subjective interpretation of data will not translate to reality, no matter how many members reiterate it.

I appreciate your objective, emotion-less assessment of the arctic ... /s

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3017 on: July 01, 2019, 04:20:34 PM »
Allrighty, Slater vs weatherdude:

Slater's model projects 4,79 m sq km extent on Aug 20 whcih would put 2019 in 2nd place. Some other interesting years on that date had NSIDC extent of:

2012: 4,48
2007: 5,11
2016: 5,14
2017: 5,27

Sarat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3018 on: July 01, 2019, 05:18:25 PM »
WD88 according to the regional extent evidence you presented you could say the same thing about 2012 in early July...

It's the weather over the next two months, dude.

Also, anticipating those volume numbers...
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 06:36:13 PM by Sarat »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3019 on: July 01, 2019, 06:18:41 PM »
How can Neven demand the thread stay on topic and simultaneously allow weatherdude88 to post... he is clearly a denier troll and is doing as much to discredit this thread and this forum. It is blatant and obvious.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3020 on: July 01, 2019, 06:20:07 PM »
In advance of the likely dreadful volume numbers coming out in the next few days, the right tail risk for the 2019 season is looking high.

Odds of top 2 season - 60%
Top 1 season - 30%
Below 2.5M km2 - 7%
BOE - 0.3%

I've maintained the keys to a record year are 1) ESS and 2) CAA.

The major momentum in the Laptev and Chuchki has those bodies of open water working toward each other. The ice on the ESS coast is going quick and the vision is the ESS ice pack is becoming an island.  CAA future is mysterious for the time being.

Where are you getting these probabilities?

Pretty much the same way Vegas sets probabilities on a sporting event....

I'm guessing !!

What might be fun on ASIF is if you had a betting market with a prize for highest ROI.

Someone can volunteer to be a market maker like I am doing here and adjust the odds if too much action comes in on any particular outcome.

The best predictors will have the greatest ROI. The best bookmakers will be the ones who can articulate odds that steer an equal amount of action to either side of the proposition.

While you're here, is there any projection there which seems wildly out of line with your sense of the situation?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3021 on: July 01, 2019, 06:27:57 PM »
Could be easily done with bitcoin. Everyone sends satoshi to a multisig address, posting their transaction ID here. The winner gets the pot.

mercurybar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3022 on: July 01, 2019, 06:37:10 PM »
WD88 is trolling.  Best reply for any WD88 post is no reply.  Ignore him.  WD88 is dead to me.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3023 on: July 01, 2019, 06:37:27 PM »
How can Neven demand the thread stay on topic and simultaneously allow weatherdude88 to post... he is clearly a denier troll and is doing as much to discredit this thread and this forum. It is blatant and obvious.

I thought it was funny. If I don't find it funny, I'll take action.

What's also not funny, is you whining about it here. Take it up elsewhere.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3024 on: July 01, 2019, 06:53:45 PM »
In advance of the likely dreadful volume numbers coming out in the next few days, the right tail risk for the 2019 season is looking high.

Odds of top 2 season - 60%
Top 1 season - 30%
Below 2.5M km2 - 7%
BOE - 0.3%

I've maintained the keys to a record year are 1) ESS and 2) CAA.

The major momentum in the Laptev and Chuchki has those bodies of open water working toward each other. The ice on the ESS coast is going quick and the vision is the ESS ice pack is becoming an island.  CAA future is mysterious for the time being.

Where are you getting these probabilities?

Pretty much the same way Vegas sets probabilities on a sporting event....

I'm guessing !!


When I see probabilities in such detail with the suggestion that fat tailed risk has grown, my expectation (perhaps not others) is there is some math behind it. Thanks for the clarification. I'll stick with the Slater model.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3025 on: July 01, 2019, 07:38:17 PM »
The latest operational GFS rum is a really sobering one.

Neven, it was funny. But WD88 has not responsed to you yet. ;D

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3026 on: July 01, 2019, 07:44:27 PM »

As has been suggested several times already, this is not the appropriate thread, so I have replied in "Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves"

I have noted the suggestion that the threat of warm water pouring through the Bering Strait in 2019 does not belong in the 2019 melting season thread. The GFS is telling us that we should expect this flow to continue for at least 5 days.

If Neven says it doesn't belong here, I'll follow his lead. I'm not inclined to abandon a topic simply because it encounters some resistance nor will I persist simply for the sake of being stubborn.

If someone can prove that there is no risk of substantial amounts of water going over the ice edge, I'll back off.

I can't prove anything, but one of several things that puzzle me here is that, at present, in the Chukchi, there really is no ice 'edge' that I can see on Worldview.  Instead, the 'edge', as far as I can view it, consists largely of myriads of small floes.  These often stretch for about 10-20km before more solid-looking masses of ice (perhaps still floes but in contact with one another/frozen together) are seen in the ice pack.  Perhaps in some limited areas ice could conceivably be rigid and have water flood over it, but in most I would imagine the millions of floes would bob up and down in the water like boats in waves, gradually dampening any surge or other wave motion.   

Sarat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3027 on: July 01, 2019, 07:51:16 PM »
End of June set up 2019/2016/2007 comparison, unfortunately, 2012 data missing.

aperson

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3028 on: July 01, 2019, 07:56:39 PM »
Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 will not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent. We may not end up in the top 5 in a sea ice area metric (looking at UH AMSR2 and NSIDC daily data and extrapolating).

A falsifiable prediction! I can't wait to revisit after minimum
computer janitor by trade

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3029 on: July 01, 2019, 08:21:04 PM »
The June 2019 temperature anomaly data is starting to come in.

The Alaska anomaly map was prepared by Rick Thoman @AlaskaWx. 

The Canada anomaly map was prepared by Patrick Duplessis @Pat_wx. 

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3030 on: July 01, 2019, 08:45:44 PM »
IARC Fairbanks also has a nice summary map of some of the weather highlights in Alaska in June.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3031 on: July 01, 2019, 09:08:58 PM »
It may not change anything but the gfs forecast has Ellesmere island over !6'C today and above 12'C seemingly constantly for the next 7 days . Next door the N. of Greenland is enjoying a balmy 8'C for the week .
Meanwhile the lowest 850hpa temps in the N.hemisphere are over the Faroes and Shetland ( where my auntie Maureen will be 90 tomorrow :)  ). There is no cold air in the Arctic or over Greenland ! .. b.c.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 09:20:17 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3032 on: July 01, 2019, 09:23:36 PM »
I haven't looked at the ensembles or anything, but the 12z operational GFS and ECMWF forecasts look a bit different for next week. Both seem to agree on the major heat pulses into the Kara/Barentz seas and also into the Pacific side from the predicted Alaska heat wave. But GFS brings back higher pressure over the central basin, while EC looks like a bit lower pressures. After Day 7 GFS continues to build high pressure while Euro has a storm. This could be a good test of whether the new GFS has made an improvement over its past poorer predictions than the Euro in the arctic. Another bad (for the ice) week to come I think regardless.
Here's GFS a week or so from today. Euro below for the same time about.



gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3033 on: July 01, 2019, 09:28:18 PM »
And you may want to believe Environment Canada's Farmers' Almanac 3 month temperature forecast - really warm to finish off the CAA and the Beaufort.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3034 on: July 01, 2019, 09:32:47 PM »
Meanwhile the lowest 850hpa temps in the N.hemisphere are over the Faroes and Shetland ( where my auntie Maureen will be 90 tomorrow :)
Happy birthday, Maureen! 🎉
Sic transit gloria mundi

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3035 on: July 01, 2019, 09:37:20 PM »
For those who don't read the Stupid Questions thread, I posted an apology there for my behavior on this thread yesterday.

If you want to comment, I ask that you do it there and not disrupt this thread any further as I did.

stjuuv

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3036 on: July 01, 2019, 09:50:02 PM »
This could be a good test of whether the new GFS has made an improvement over its past poorer predictions than the Euro in the arctic.
Make a note to comment on this in a week - would be very interesting, but unfortunately the number of predictions on this thread is so high that keeping track of everything is damn near impossible.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3037 on: July 01, 2019, 10:05:07 PM »
Despite all of the hyperbole...

[... proceeds to the worst kind of hyperbole and distraction]

 ::)

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3038 on: July 01, 2019, 10:13:58 PM »
WD88 is trolling.  Best reply for any WD88 post is no reply.  Ignore him.  WD88 is dead to me.

just thought the same, we should not behave like a bee-hive that was slightly disturbed by a monkey running over the top.

pauldry600

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3039 on: July 01, 2019, 10:14:36 PM »
Its very difficult to figure out sea ice melting

Some days low amount melts and some days loads.

It seems to go in waves but if this was a previous year Id say for sure it will be the lowest ever from never have seen what did happen. But from having experienced the anomalies of what can occur out of the blue its still possible it may NOT be top 3 but yes dude is trolling

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3040 on: July 01, 2019, 10:18:01 PM »
The latest operational GFS rum is a really sobering one.

mind to share the recipe for "SOBERING RUM"

i like rum so much but then i couldn't get hold on that kind, hence consumption has to stay limited.

 [JK] [SARC]

 :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3041 on: July 01, 2019, 10:34:20 PM »
Magnamentis:  ;D ;D ;D Thanks for that, made me laugh!




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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3042 on: July 01, 2019, 10:45:29 PM »
I haven't looked at the ensembles or anything, but the 12z operational GFS and ECMWF forecasts look a bit different for next week. Both seem to agree on the major heat pulses into the Kara/Barentz seas and also into the Pacific side from the predicted Alaska heat wave. But GFS brings back higher pressure over the central basin, while EC looks like a bit lower pressures. After Day 7 GFS continues to build high pressure while Euro has a storm. This could be a good test of whether the new GFS has made an improvement over its past poorer predictions than the Euro in the arctic. Another bad (for the ice) week to come I think regardless.
Here's GFS a week or so from today. Euro below for the same time about.


Yay more long-term forecasts that'll never be referenced again.

Poldergeist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3043 on: July 01, 2019, 10:53:04 PM »
<snip, I've moved your comment to the Stupid Questions thread; N.>
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 11:46:10 PM by Neven »

miki

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3044 on: July 01, 2019, 11:01:10 PM »
The latest operational GFS rum is a really sobering one.

mind to share the recipe for "SOBERING RUM"

i like rum so much but then i couldn't get hold on that kind, hence consumption has to stay limited.


I'm in tears....   :D :D :D

miki

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3045 on: July 01, 2019, 11:08:23 PM »
wow... just entered my "citizen" mode... after years of daily lurking  ;D

thanks to all that make ASIF so informative and incredibly alive!

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3046 on: July 01, 2019, 11:26:07 PM »
Of interest - in 24-36 hours, two blobs of precipitation scheduled to hit respectively, the Beaufort/Chukchi on the Pacific side, and the eastern Kara/Barents on the Atlantic.

It is expected to fall as rain, with temperatures in the 3-5c range in both cases.

The effect on the Pacific side will not be as readily apparent, as it won't promptly melt out the MYI that's there, but will increase lead sizes because of thinner ice being chased out.

On the Atlantic, we may see a couple day's sudden and high decreases in both extent and area as the ice in those areas is already mostly thin and in poor shape.

(edit:  Added expected accumulated precipitation out to 96 hours)
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 11:32:00 PM by jdallen »
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3047 on: July 01, 2019, 11:57:51 PM »
Current MODIS view.  Lots of clouds keeping things cooler.  No dispersion visible in the gaps except in Beaufort.  Dispersion exists all along the fringes.



Same day 2012.  Much more dispersion visible.  Partly because there were less of those cooling clouds.  But the circled area has substantial areas of somewhat dispersed ice.  Through the melting season this ice kept getting worse and worse and eventually melts out completely.  I have seen no evidence of anything like like this large area of partially dispersed ice deep within the pack in the gaps between the clouds on the Russian side.  There is some of this dispersion penetrating deep into the pack in the Beaufort area but it is a small area compred to what happened in 2012 on the Russian side.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3048 on: July 02, 2019, 12:39:30 AM »
Current MODIS view.  Lots of clouds keeping things cooler.  No dispersion visible in the gaps except in Beaufort.  Dispersion exists all along the fringes.



Same day 2012.  Much more dispersion visible.  Partly because there were less of those cooling clouds.  But the circled area has substantial areas of somewhat dispersed ice.  Through the melting season this ice kept getting worse and worse and eventually melts out completely.  I have seen no evidence of anything like like this large area of partially dispersed ice deep within the pack in the gaps between the clouds on the Russian side.  There is some of this dispersion penetrating deep into the pack in the Beaufort area but it is a small area compred to what happened in 2012 on the Russian side.



And imo, this is the one thing that is making me question whether a record low will happen this year or not but whilst there seems to be little dispersion in that area you highlighted, the ice does have a greyish colour and the breman charts do show slightly lower concentration in that area.

I hope no one will brand you a troll for your post, there is nothing wrong with bringing a bit of balance to this thread and what you state is true.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3049 on: July 02, 2019, 12:45:15 AM »
Super convenient that clouds are covering all the OPEN WATER in 2019 that is extra relative to 2012 in Hauber's single shot.