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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3150 on: July 03, 2019, 02:00:28 AM »
Oh boy



The cliff is about to get going...

I would think the concentration maps to be too aggressive if thickness and EOSDIS didn't confirm that the entire PAC front is about to give out entirely (IMO)


bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3151 on: July 03, 2019, 02:09:47 AM »
If HYCOM is anywhere near correct it looks like we could easily lose 1M KM^2 of area this coming week... that kind of collapse would put 2012 to shame.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3152 on: July 03, 2019, 02:16:10 AM »
Most of the discussion about dispersion is pointless because we don't have a direct measure of ice dispersion. The area vs extent figures include the effects of melt ponds. We know from published research that early melt ponds are important to extent drops later in the summer. Thus the conflation of the effects of dispersion and melt ponds is a major problem in our discussions of dispersion, as Neven gently noted. As someone trained in science, not diplomacy, I do not tend to be so gentle.

Available data sets, such as JAXA extent, show that this year is running neck and neck with 2012. However, the distribution of early melt ponds, open water and thick ice is quite different. The weather has been different.


Yes there is a serious issue that dispersion  cannot be put on an nice numerical basis.  Concentration values from AMSRE2 etc should in theory do this but cannot tell between reduced concentration due to melt ponds and reduced concentration due to floe separation.  However having looked at many images in MODIS I think it is obvious that there is a quite dramatic difference between different years in this aspect, and that this year is a lower dispersion year.  Maybe an algorithm such as I've seen previously which sorts through all MODIS images to find cloud free portions to get a weekly view combined with some pixel counting could put it on a numerical basis.  Failing that its a question of whether people trust my (and those who agree with me) subjective eyeball estimates, and whether anyone who disagrees can put together some convincing images to show otherwise. 

Jaxa images would suggest that 2012 was massively more disperse than 2019, however the sensors used are totally different, with a change midway through 2012.  Any comparisons based on Extent Vs Area need to take this into account with some data serious starting midway through 2012, and others patching togther the different sensors, or NSIDC still using the same sensor throughout (I think?), but one which is very sensitive to melt ponds.
Michael, I believe a dispersion map can be derived from PIOMAS data, if you have confidence in PIOMAS. I explained it a few posts above I may ask somebody to give a try...

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3153 on: July 03, 2019, 02:22:09 AM »
I am at times amazed at the low quality English used by some of the native speakers on the forum

As a university professor in an English-speaking country, I can regretfully confirm that written English is weakening.

On the other hand, in a polyglot community like this one, just getting one’s meaning across is probably enough.

1. People who police others' informal writing on the internet deserve neither to be writing nor reading on the internet. It's petty. E.g., I *teach* EFL, yet rarely ever edit my posts anywhere on the internet and let tons of typos make their way into posterity, and occasional true errors... because it's petty to care about how people write on the internet!

 ::)

Because... (<--- Don't do that, e.g.)

2. Bill is correct. The *only* point of language is to move an idea from one head to another(s). (<--- Don't do that, either.) Anything else is gravy; only formal writing need be as accurate as possible.

3. Playing language cop can get one into some rather embarrassing moments, such as using low-quality English to accuse others of using "low quality English," which, I believe, would mean they used English vulgarities very well. If we are to take your post as written, as opposed to as intended, you have stated in text the opposite of what you intended.  :o

This is called irony. And hypocrisy. (<-- Don't do that one neitherhow.)

So, don't be petty. It's pretty petty. It's a pity and peculiar to be petty per people being pithy with said people's prose, pacishe? (<--- Do this. Have fun, that is.)

 ;)  ;D 8)

Toodles!

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3154 on: July 03, 2019, 02:30:28 AM »
You know, if the world is ending due to impending BOE and all, I guess one positive would be that all the grammar nazis will also be dead.  8)

Viggy

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3155 on: July 03, 2019, 02:38:15 AM »
its a question of whether people trust my (and those who agree with me) subjective eyeball estimates, and whether anyone who disagrees can put together some convincing images to show otherwise. 

Translation - I'm not gonna present hard numbers or data to prove my point, but if someone disagrees with me, the burden of proof is on them to refute it with data.

Spoiler alert - Burden of proof is always on the person making outlandish claims. If you are so convinced about a particular point (i.e. - dispersion), presenting convincing data to prove it should not be difficult.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3156 on: July 03, 2019, 03:03:16 AM »
its a question of whether people trust my (and those who agree with me) subjective eyeball estimates, and whether anyone who disagrees can put together some convincing images to show otherwise. 

Translation - I'm not gonna present hard numbers or data to prove my point, but if someone disagrees with me, the burden of proof is on them to refute it with data.

Spoiler alert - Burden of proof is always on the person making outlandish claims. If you are so convinced about a particular point (i.e. - dispersion), presenting convincing data to prove it should not be difficult.

I presented the images that back up my claims, so I have provided the same level of evidence I ask of anyone who wants to dispute my claim.  Your accusation of double standards is false and offensive.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Viggy

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3157 on: July 03, 2019, 03:17:18 AM »
I presented the images that back up my claims, so I have provided the same level of evidence I ask of anyone who wants to dispute my claim.  Your accusation of double standards is false and offensive.

You presented 2 low res images of the entire Arctic area and subjectively placed an oval highlight on the 2012 image as proof of "more dispersion".

Your insistence on that being enough proof to back up your claim, is significantly more offensive, no?

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3158 on: July 03, 2019, 03:22:34 AM »
NSIDC concentration map for today. erm, "dispersion"

Not much 100% ice according to this

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3159 on: July 03, 2019, 03:35:27 AM »
If HYCOM is anywhere near correct it looks like we could easily lose 1M KM^2 of area this coming week... that kind of collapse would put 2012 to shame.
Don't think it will be that much, but I think the steady march of 90-110K daily losses will continue plodding along.  We'll lose ground to 2012 during that time.

However, I think the state of the ice is such, that once 2012 trails off, we will continue plodding along with those 90-110K losses through July and possibly well into August.

If we go seriously low this year, I think it will be via a long whimper rather than a BANG.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3160 on: July 03, 2019, 03:39:23 AM »
If HYCOM is anywhere near correct it looks like we could easily lose 1M KM^2 of area this coming week... that kind of collapse would put 2012 to shame.
Don't think it will be that much, but I think the steady march of 90-110K daily losses will continue plodding along.  We'll lose ground to 2012 during that time.

However, I think the state of the ice is such, that once 2012 trails off, we will continue plodding along with those 90-110K losses through July and possibly well into August.

If we go seriously low this year, I think it will be via a long whimper rather than a BANG.
I would be inclined to agree, I know HYCOM can sometimes go crazy, but this is an instance where I think it actually makes sense. So yes, I would favor "consistent horribleness" over a BANG in general, but I think the BANG is possibly now upcoming within 10-14 days, where a very very very large part of the Arctic Basin is about to go "poof". There is a huge area of ice now falling below .5M in thickness and as this occurs, hundreds of thousands if not millions of KM^2 are going to turn to mush within the span of the next ten days.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3161 on: July 03, 2019, 04:03:44 AM »
This is a paint drip chart of Arctic geopotential height anomalies throughout the column.  Long range forecasts are still not indicating a break from this.
I am not a scientist

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3162 on: July 03, 2019, 04:08:57 AM »
It seems unusual to me the wind coming from south Asia to the Bering Strait. I don't see the normal jet stream. Instead, a flow south to north. It is coming a lot of heat to the Arctic, with this wind pattern?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-212.00,61.11,316

The pattern of subtropical high pressure and Indian dipole oscillation play an important role. If you look at the 500hPa geopotential, you will find the subtropical high pressure of northwest pacific ocean is relatively weak although governing a larger area. Especially, the high presssure have not intrude west to govern the east China, yet. The positive indian dipole oscillation also means the summer South Asia monsoon is strong. What's more, a Typhoon is forming in South China sea to accelerate this mechanism. It is now pumping more heat and moisture through South Asia to the northwest edge of subtropical high pressure.

The SST of north Pacific ocean is cold along Russia side while warm along the Alaska side. This helps to form high pressure ridge along the Alaska and continue pump heat and moisture through mid latitude to the arctic.

Summary, the reason lies in that South Asia monsoon is strong because of positive IDO and subtropical high pressure in northwest pacific ocean is weak because of El-nino.

Thanks for your answers: peterlvmeng, SteveMDFP & jdallen.

I think that this wind pattern is responsible of the new heat records on Alaska:
Record-Smashing Heat Wave Bakes Alaska, Worsening Wildfires
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/1616992001

On Saturday, downtown Juneau, Alaska's capital city, hit 83 degrees, breaking a record that had stood for 110 years. 

Saturday was only the fifth day since 1952 that Anchorage, Juneau and Fairbanks were all 81 degrees or warmer, according to Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider.

The temperature in Anchorage on Sunday soared to 82 degrees, the city's highest reading in three years, the weather service said.
...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3163 on: July 03, 2019, 05:46:43 AM »
I am at times amazed at the low quality English used by some of the native speakers on the forum

As a university professor in an English-speaking country, I can regretfully confirm that written English is weakening.

On the other hand, in a polyglot community like this one, just getting one’s meaning across is probably enough.

1. People who police others' informal writing on the internet deserve neither to be writing nor reading on the internet. It's petty. E.g., I *teach* EFL, yet rarely ever edit my posts anywhere on the internet and let tons of typos make their way into posterity, and occasional true errors... because it's petty to care about how people write on the internet!

 ::)

Because... (<--- Don't do that, e.g.)

2. Bill is correct. The *only* point of language is to move an idea from one head to another(s). (<--- Don't do that, either.) Anything else is gravy; only formal writing need be as accurate as possible.

3. Playing language cop can get one into some rather embarrassing moments, such as using low-quality English to accuse others of using "low quality English," which, I believe, would mean they used English vulgarities very well. If we are to take your post as written, as opposed to as intended, you have stated in text the opposite of what you intended.  :o

This is called irony. And hypocrisy. (<-- Don't do that one neitherhow.)

So, don't be petty. It's pretty petty. It's a pity and peculiar to be petty per people being pithy with said people's prose, pacishe? (<--- Do this. Have fun, that is.)

 ;)  ;D 8)

Toodles!

But on the other hand, it is perfectly OK for you to do a long dissertation on what other people should do or not do. For our own good, of course.

I see.

I think you just destroyed my i-ron-o-meter. You buried the needle.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 06:04:29 AM by Pragma »

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3164 on: July 03, 2019, 05:57:36 AM »
As someone who speaks English as a second (or even third) language, I am at times amazed at the low quality English used by some...

It seems unusual to me the wind coming from south Asia to the Bering Strait. I don't see the normal jet stream. Instead, a flow south to north. It is Is it coming a lot of heat to the Arctic, with this wind pattern?
I usually make mistakes, but english is not my native language.  8)
Going back to topic, on ADS ASIE, 2019 is already second lowest on record.  :o

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
July 2nd, 2019:
     8,782,986 km2, a century drop of -131,234 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3165 on: July 03, 2019, 06:16:05 AM »
Alaska is getting pounded with heat right now.  It has not moved down to the Beaufort yet.   If it does, it could be trouble. 

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3166 on: July 03, 2019, 06:23:35 AM »
For Anchorage is what he says at the last part of the image that got cut off.  Sorry about that.

I should also note that these are all time record high temps. Alaska is blowing it out of the park right now for their all time record high temperatures.  Also, in case you don’t know who this guy is, he is a real climate scientist who works for the state of Alaska.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 06:39:24 AM by Rod »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3167 on: July 03, 2019, 07:10:31 AM »
June 28 - July 2.

2018.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3168 on: July 03, 2019, 07:17:08 AM »
I think it's obvious what's impending now. PS ESRL data for June is now out. 2019-2012 below (5C up and down). Also 2019-2007. Both nowhere near as bad as this year.

The cold continents / even warmer Arctic dichotomy has been notable this June over relatively low-latitude land areas adjacent to dwindling sea ice (south of Kara, and near Hudson in particular).


binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3169 on: July 03, 2019, 07:19:43 AM »
It seems to me that we have been using the words dispersion and export quite happily for the last several years without having to wrangle about what the words actually specifically mean down in the Bayou.

As someone who speaks English as a second (or even third) language, I am at times amazed at the low quality English used by some of the native speakers on the forum, with grammatical non sequiturs, embarassing spelling mistakes and word salads that would stretch the abilities of the the greatest of sauciers to dress palatably.

Agree with you on many points, but surely getting clear on terms we use helps work against the 'word salad' responses you are writing about.
 
( It's embarRassing, by the way...   ;)    Not that spelling counts a whole lot, as long as the meaning itself is clear, but the irony was a little too delicious to pass over... sorry!)
Made me laugh out of pure embarrasment.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3170 on: July 03, 2019, 07:29:19 AM »
It's happening, WOW!



EOSDIS link for better view / scroll back and forth, the huge change just began today.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-07-03-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2118190.9876563037,619550.0508556102,-671278.9876563039,1353758.05085561

Now that the FYI is falling below critical thickness there is a HUGE area that is about to go poof and lose massive % in very short order (like 10% ice remaining in the span of the next ten days consisting of frazzled MYI that won't survive another week or two).

In 2016 this ice is what allowed the "tail" towards Siberia to survive the season. 2019 is nowhere near as thick and the weather has been much worse. Thus, we challenge or surpass 2012.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3171 on: July 03, 2019, 07:57:43 AM »
I think 2019's main problem now is that there is no thick remaining shorefast ice that can protect the main pack from assault.

Apples to apples, HYCOM's 7/2/2018 forecast for 7/9/2018 showed big bits of relatively thick ice remaining in Beaufort and along Siberian shorelines. Volume was still even minorly substantial in Hudson and Baffin, and Kara had coverage.



2019? OMG.



Even the bits of old shorefast Siberian Islands ice now integrated into the basin's pack are MUCH thinner than last year. All of the shorefast ice in Beaufort is gone. Same with 90% of the Siberian ice. Kara is open. Hudson's anomaly is barely there at this point.

If HYCOM went back further with apples-to-apples comparisons I'm sure 2019 would conclusively look the worst. You can see how the pack is also PRIMED to make huge retreats in July and August as there is now nothing to stop the periphery FYI from collapsing completely, as it is about to do through 7/15-8/1.

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3172 on: July 03, 2019, 08:26:30 AM »

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3173 on: July 03, 2019, 08:29:41 AM »
Let's not refer to HYCOM too much. I can't even access the NRL site anymore without getting repeated warnings from my virus scanner. Who knows what they're doing over there.

-----

As expected, June 2019 was warmest on record for the Arctic circle (65-90N) with 4.15 °C, beating 2005 (3.94 °C) and 2012 (4.08 °C), mainly because of a record warm Pacific and third lowest Siberian quadrant.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 08:34:43 AM by Neven »
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El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3174 on: July 03, 2019, 08:30:16 AM »
Someone (Wipneus?) used to have a graph about ice thickness (how much ice in various thickness categories) which had a pretty good forecasting "skill" when looked at in June or July. I don't remember the exact numbers and dates but something like all ice below 1,5 meters melts out and most above remains. Anyone has the chart?   

Retron

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3175 on: July 03, 2019, 08:39:33 AM »
Let's not refer to HYCOM too much. I can't even access the NRL site anymore without getting repeated warnings from my virus scanner. Who knows what they're doing over there.
The warning will be because their SSL certificate is issued by someone not in your root store - i.e. the Department of Defense. It's all above-board and nothing to worry about (and I say that as an IT nerd).

Here's the archive sea ice thickness chart from the same stage in 2012 - the difference to the current forecast is stark!

(EDIT: I've attached the minimum chart from later in 2012 for comparison. I suspect their algorithms will have changed since then, but I find it an interesting sight as even at the minimum the HYCOM thicknesses were greater than we have now, in July!)


Human Habitat Index

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3176 on: July 03, 2019, 08:52:51 AM »
June 28 - July 2.

2018.

My impression is that the ice pack is becoming unhinged.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Ktb

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3177 on: July 03, 2019, 09:05:58 AM »
June 28 - July 2.

2018.

Jesus, the beaufort is just decimated
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Ktb

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3178 on: July 03, 2019, 09:09:41 AM »
Also do my eyes deceive me or does bbr's (post #3150) Hycom gif show significant melting at the pole, and possible future formation of a large hole in the center of the pack -- just northeast of the pole.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 10:10:10 AM by Ktb »
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3179 on: July 03, 2019, 09:10:59 AM »
As expected, June 2019 was warmest on record for the Arctic circle (65-90N) with 4.15 °C, beating 2005 (3.94 °C) and 2012 (4.08 °C), mainly because of a record warm Pacific and third lowest Siberian quadrant.

In the ZLabe version (north of latitude 70), second place with a minimum margin of 2005. But the gap from 2012 is very high.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3180 on: July 03, 2019, 09:12:41 AM »
But the first place north of 80 latitude.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3181 on: July 03, 2019, 09:23:38 AM »
Also do my eyes deceive me or does bbr's (post #3150) Hycom gif show significant melting at the pole, and possible future formation of a large hole in the center of the pack

This is a real disaster.

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3182 on: July 03, 2019, 09:28:26 AM »
For the next few days, at least, high pressure and warmth dominate from Kara through the central CAB to the CAA/eastern Beaufort. These are the parts of the Arctic that have been relatively protected so far, and now they will be exposed to surface melt/melt ponding and high insolation.




I think this pattern will be bad for the ice. The southern Laptev and ESS are already in such bad shape that they will melt out anyway over the next few weeks, particularly with the help of warmish river water, while Chuckchi and the western Beaufort have the high SSTs and southerlies through Bering to contend with. Add in continuing Fram export...

Beyond this, the models seems a bit unsure whether high pressure will dominate the whole central Arctic or whether the high pressure will drift across to the Eurasian side, allowing a low to develop over Beaufort, creating a reverse dipole.

Based on the emerging pattern, I expect high losses for the next 2-3 weeks, but I wouldn't dare to predict whether they will be steady or occur in fits and starts.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3183 on: July 03, 2019, 10:03:38 AM »
This is a real disaster.

No, it isn't. You can't just compare ACNFS/HYCOM images like that, because we have no idea whatsoever what they're doing over at the NRL, and whether they are doing it consistently. And that safety certificate stuff doesn't scare me, but it's an indication that there isn't a real focus on this product over at NRL.

This is the kind of stuff that needs to get balanced, not the '2019 might go record low' stuff.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3184 on: July 03, 2019, 10:04:19 AM »
Now the ice has receded to the border of the 1890 map. It is terrible to imagine what will happen in 2 months.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/North-Pole-Arctic-Region-Discoveries-tracks-detailed-routes-1890-Stieler-old-map-/122672999971

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3185 on: July 03, 2019, 10:11:01 AM »
This is a real disaster.

No, it isn't. You can't just compare ACNFS/HYCOM images like that, because we have no idea whatsoever what they're doing over at the NRL, and whether they are doing it consistently. And that safety certificate stuff doesn't scare me, but it's an indication that there isn't a real focus on this product over at NRL.

This is the kind of stuff that needs to get balanced, not the '2019 might go record low' stuff.

In any case, the likelihood of a catastrophic collapse like 2007 and 2012 this year is higher than ever after 2012.

Never before has the Pacific side received as much heat as this year. Of course, in 2012, the Atlantic side heated up much more, but it’s not so dangerous.

The worst option is when heat accumulates in the maelstrom of the Acrtic Basin, and not on the peripheral seas of the Atlantic side.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3186 on: July 03, 2019, 10:31:34 AM »
In any case, the likelihood of a catastrophic collapse like 2007 and 2012 this year is higher than ever after 2012.

Yes, that's where we are at right now. The weather will determine the rest.

Speaking of which, the current ECMWF forecast finally hints at something more benign for the ice, ie no big high pressure areas, no cyclones, no isobars, no movement. There is still 3-4 days of real action to go, and then maybe things will slow down a bit. Nevertheless, all those clear skies over the Atlantic side of the Arctic, won't be good.
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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3187 on: July 03, 2019, 02:13:44 PM »
A simple technique to visualize 1-week changes in the pack was used before by others, consisting on using only two images (in this case UH AMSR2 Jun 25 and Jul 02) and smoothly transition from one to the other, ignoring the real variations.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3188 on: July 03, 2019, 02:21:00 PM »
Nice.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3189 on: July 03, 2019, 02:36:53 PM »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3190 on: July 03, 2019, 02:44:29 PM »
Nice.

+1
Thanks, I’ll try to get one per week, added to the calendar.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3191 on: July 03, 2019, 03:35:38 PM »
Thanks, I’ll try to get one per week, added to the calendar.
Yes, this is a helpful way to visualize changes. Look at that Beaufort and west CAA region.

Models may be calming down some, but forecasted SLP anomaly and 14 day -AO doesn't look promising.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 04:05:54 PM by Ice Shieldz »

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3192 on: July 03, 2019, 03:37:48 PM »
Slater model update as usual

Aug 22 projected extent: 4,62 M sq km.

NSIDC extent on same date of

2012: 4,35
2007:4,99
2016: 5,05
2017: 5,24
2018: 5,34

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3193 on: July 03, 2019, 03:52:17 PM »
It's happening, WOW!



EOSDIS link for better view / scroll back and forth, the huge change just began today.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-07-03-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2118190.9876563037,619550.0508556102,-671278.9876563039,1353758.05085561

Now that the FYI is falling below critical thickness there is a HUGE area that is about to go poof and lose massive % in very short order (like 10% ice remaining in the span of the next ten days consisting of frazzled MYI that won't survive another week or two).

In 2016 this ice is what allowed the "tail" towards Siberia to survive the season. 2019 is nowhere near as thick and the weather has been much worse. Thus, we challenge or surpass 2012.

today i fully agree (because this time it's true) LOL

+1

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3194 on: July 03, 2019, 04:00:37 PM »
A simple technique to visualize 1-week changes in the pack was used before by others, consisting on using only two images (in this case UH AMSR2 Jun 25 and Jul 02) and smoothly transition from one to the other, ignoring the real variations.

What strikes me about this is -- well, a lot of things, really -- but in particular the devolution of the eastern Beaufort into a killing field and the continued development of the CAA/CAB crack. I've been somewhat skeptical that the crack would play out as a "real" feature rather than a temporary artifact caused by wind driving the ice. But even just an open/close boundary created by wind oscillations does retain a structural weakness.

If the east flank of the Beaufort collapses as dramatically as AMSR2 suggests it's about to, then there's every reason to expect that the same factors driving melt in the Beaufort can infiltrate along the structural instability of the crack. Indeed, while there are reasons to be suspicious of HYCOM's methodologies, their thickness map also shows propagation of melt along the CAA/CAB boundary, at least as far as Borden Island. HYCOM also appears to show separation along the west coast of Ellesmere, although I'm less convinced that has a counterpart in AMSR2.

Between Borden and Ellesmere is Ellef Ringnes Island, long considered the bastion of the "cold core" of the Arctic environment. The station on that island, Isachsen, consistently reported the coldest summers of all Arctic weather monitoring stations. Accordingly, Ellef Ringnes marked the western vertex of the "triangle" (broadly speaking: Ellef Ringnes - Cape Morris Jessup - North Pole) of protected ice with greater thickness and better tendency to oversummer.

Last year, we saw the right vertex of that triangle under attack when open water propagated along the north coast of Greenland from the east. If the Beaufort's collapse, couples with a CAA/CAB crack that originated as a wind effect but evolves into a melt feature, then we may very well see damage on the opposite side of what passes for a safe harbor for ice. We're a long way -- hopefully -- from that triangle of ice  actually melting out in its entirety (because that's effectively the same thing as a BOE). But nibbling away at its edges, especially in relatively novel ways, damages the integrity of the ice and reduces its ability to resist melting in later years.

In the meantime, this directly targets volume in a way that won't necessarily be reflected in area or extent measurements and exposes the normally secure reaches of the CAA to melting factors from the north. Nothing about this is good, even if it doesn't show in the bottom line metrics.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3195 on: July 03, 2019, 04:28:58 PM »
Ended June was a warmest on 6 percent of the planet’s area.

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49

Quote
According to NCEP/NCAR Reanaylsis (R1), June 2019 was the second warmest June on record globally (2016). ERA-5 (ECMWF) had June 2019 ranked #1. Whichever is correct, it was warm!



ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3196 on: July 03, 2019, 04:46:31 PM »
After the last scheme, the chances that the volume of ice according to the PIOMAS model will be minimal increase even more. For most of the whirlpool of the Arctic basin, the warmest June was observed.

It is interesting why only at the northern coast of Alaska this June was relatively cold despite the earlier melting of ice and very warm water.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3197 on: July 03, 2019, 05:20:06 PM »
Rutgers Snow Lab has June Northern Hemisphere snow cover fourth lowest on record:
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3198 on: July 03, 2019, 05:31:37 PM »
its a question of whether people trust my (and those who agree with me) subjective eyeball estimates, and whether anyone who disagrees can put together some convincing images to show otherwise. 

Translation - I'm not gonna present hard numbers or data to prove my point, but if someone disagrees with me, the burden of proof is on them to refute it with data.

Spoiler alert - Burden of proof is always on the person making outlandish claims. If you are so convinced about a particular point (i.e. - dispersion), presenting convincing data to prove it should not be difficult.

But who decides which claims are “outlandish”?
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Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3199 on: July 03, 2019, 05:41:14 PM »
Ossifrage, Nibbling at the pole, Northern Greenland, and at the Western end via a garlic press are all on the table this year as well as the Nares transport and it's effects on the Lincoln Sea.
 I,ll add Ellef Ringnes Island to my geographical place names.

Mostly wanted to say welcome aboard !