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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3200 on: July 03, 2019, 06:05:03 PM »
Rutgers Snow Lab has June Northern Hemisphere snow cover fourth lowest on record:
Thanks for sharing, Neven. I've been saying about a month ago in the thread that i see snow cover being catastrophic, wondering if it's just me; and here we go - bad enough to be named so, given the circumstance of higher overal temps around Arctic parts in '19 than it was in '12, which with everything else equal means a bit faster melt for remaining snow. Of course, it's even more important in what condition snow is near mid-june - more than even snow covered area per se, i mean; but usually when it's large negative anomaly, lots of remaining snow cover is wet and darker than normal, i bet you catch my drift.

I called one of recent seasons "soupy" because of all the fragmentation. This one feels quite "soaked", both ice and snow. We'll see...

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3201 on: July 03, 2019, 06:42:20 PM »
At the end of June, it is already the third place in the snow area (it was less only in 2011 and 2012).


https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=0&ui_sort=0

Quote
Row   Year   Week   N. Hemisphere   Eurasia   N. America   N. America
(no Greenland)

1   2019   26   3.29   0.47   2.82   0.75
53   2018   26   4.17   0.48   3.69   1.54
105   2017   26   4.40   0.77   3.63   1.48
158   2016   26   3.75   0.44   3.31   1.25
210   2015   26   3.32   0.54   2.78   0.63
262   2014   26   4.00   0.37   3.62   1.47
314   2013   26   4.05   0.58   3.48   1.37
366   2012   26   2.58   0.24   2.34   0.31
418   2011   26   2.67   0.17   2.50   0.43
471   2010   26   3.72   0.36   3.36   1.25
523   2009   26   4.63   0.62   4.01   1.86
575   2008   26   3.89   0.64   3.24   1.13
627   2007   26   4.82   0.76   4.06   1.91
679   2006   26   4.86   0.97   3.89   1.74
731   2005   26   6.99   2.05   4.94   2.79
784   2004   26   6.39   1.76   4.64   2.49
836   2003   26   7.01   2.08   4.92   2.90
888   2002   26   5.42   0.77   4.65   2.50
940   2001   26   5.48   0.69   4.79   2.69
992   2000   26   5.40   1.25   4.16   2.01

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3202 on: July 03, 2019, 06:48:01 PM »
its a question of whether people trust my (and those who agree with me) subjective eyeball estimates, and whether anyone who disagrees can put together some convincing images to show otherwise. 

Translation - I'm not gonna present hard numbers or data to prove my point, but if someone disagrees with me, the burden of proof is on them to refute it with data.

Spoiler alert - Burden of proof is always on the person making outlandish claims. If you are so convinced about a particular point (i.e. - dispersion), presenting convincing data to prove it should not be difficult.

But who decides which claims are “outlandish”?

outlandish is so far beyond what's probable, possible or feasible that it's very easy to see the outlandishness.

there are certain laws of physics that don't allow for certain things to happen or at least not in outlandish manner or outlandish short time.

usually you won't find more than one person (the poster) who agrees and sometimes one or two more who, lack of education think it possible.

hope that helps while the implication/motivation/purpos of the question itself was kind of offensive (outlandish) LOL

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting seas
« Reply #3203 on: July 03, 2019, 07:03:51 PM »
As far as forecast interpretation, Michael’s one was not that outlandish (it’s a tad cooler) and Friv stopped posting, which correlates well with the change of weather.
That as long as outlandish is not “out of what the tribe thinks”.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3204 on: July 03, 2019, 07:05:30 PM »
If looking at Rutgers data is about more info on the Arctic melting season, how much use is it?

Is the Rutgers data for the entire Northern Hemisphere, i.e. does it include the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau (at about latitude 28 to 40 degrees North)? If yes,and I am sure that the answer is yes, it is a bit of a problem. In the last two years at least, very heavy above average snowfall there, but not in the rest of Eurasia so much. Even now nearly all the snow left in Eurasia is from there. North America presents a much smaller problem, snow in the Rockies extending way south and largely irrelevant to the Arctic?

The reality is that there is almost no snow left in the mid to high latitudes apart from mainly the Rockies, the East coast of Ellesmere Island and some of the other islands in the CAA, some scraps on the Central Siberian shore and, of course Greenland..

The extent and condition of the remaining snow on the icepack is of more significance for the remainder of the season?
_________________________________________________
Tealights maps and graphs exclude 28 to 40 North in Asia?

Image from Environment Canada attached https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 07:12:31 PM by gerontocrat »
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Ossifrage

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3205 on: July 03, 2019, 07:11:15 PM »
Ossifrage, Nibbling at the pole, Northern Greenland, and at the Western end via a garlic press are all on the table this year as well as the Nares transport and it's effects on the Lincoln Sea.
 I,ll add Ellef Ringnes Island to my geographical place names.

Mostly wanted to say welcome aboard !

Thanks for the warm welcome, no pun intended.

And, indeed, I think Ellef Ringnes and the surrounding waters are an important place to watch. To its west, separating it from Borden Island, is the Prince Gustav Adolf Sea (hence: PGAS), which is also bounded by Lougheed Island to the south. To the east of Ellef Ringness is Peary Channel. Both of these bodies of water are historically important as part of the CAA "garlic press". The Peary is locally (but not globally) significant as an export channel, and the PGAS also sees export, but has historically served as an important harbor for MYI.

Export through these waterways is variable, based in large part on wind effects, although a 2013 paper suggests that the PGAS may also have a fairly consistent clockwise gyre that is only discernible during periods of high ice motility; I'd honestly be surprised if the hydrodynamics were otherwise, given the local geography. Some melting of these areas occurs annually, at least in recent years. But a combination of their proximity to the Canadian cold pole and their role in export and dispersion means they are historically not ice-free.

The biggest danger for the northwest CAA this year, in my opinion, is a complete collapse of ice in the PGAS. If the CAA/CAB crack continues to grow in definition as AMSR2 trending suggests, then the PGAS will be denied its resupply of ice from the CAB. Combined with the inevitable warmth of summer -- although under cloud, Isachsen may see 7C this weekend, and the lows remain above freezing -- and it's not impossible to believe that one of the traditional safe harbors for MYI (such as that is even a thing anymore) will be open water at this year's minimum. That may or may not impact whether we push to a record minimum, but it will continue to erode the health of the CAA's multiyear ice outlook.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3206 on: July 03, 2019, 07:33:53 PM »
For context, from ClimaTemps is a climate summary for Isachsen.  (Thanks for introducing us to this weather station, Ossifrage.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3207 on: July 03, 2019, 08:32:51 PM »
Isachsen may see 7C this weekend, and the lows remain above freezing --
Meteoblue say even warmer.

______________________________________________________________
ps: Can't resist going for a wander through the brain, thinking on where the handle Ossifrage might have come from.

First off I thought "Ossif"... ication. Turning into bones. But no, that is me. Obese is one thing I will never be. (My daughter says I can hide behind a rake handle).

So I  looked at "Ossi" again and found..
- Finnish, a male given name, diminutive of Ossian,
or
- (colloquial, possibly mildly offensive) A person from (former) East Germany; now sometimes including Berlin

So I looked at "Frage" - which is German for "Question".

A Finnish German from former East Germany with a questioning mind. Sorted.

End of diversion. No response required.
______________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3208 on: July 03, 2019, 08:45:23 PM »
You got that right, Gerontocrat.

Just for clarification:

Ost Deutschland = East Germany
Ossi = Someone from the eastern part of Germany

(sorry for replying :P)

Uh,oh! And hello and welcome to the forum Ossifrage. :)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3209 on: July 03, 2019, 08:47:28 PM »
For context, from ClimaTemps is a climate summary for Isachsen.  (Thanks for introducing us to this weather station, Ossifrage.)

6 degrees Celsius seems a very dubious maximum for this station.

On June 29 of this year, the station recorded +11.8С

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?WMO=71074&CONT=namk&LAND=NN&ART=MAX&LEVEL=150

This link also says that the absolute maximum of the station is close to 12 degrees:

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/isachsen_canada_5984185

Here they write that in July 2015 the temperature rose to +10:

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/lang/ru/isachsen-weather-averages/nunavut/ca.aspx

It looks like in June of this year for this place the maximum temperature was observed.


P.S. On August 5, 2016, the station even registered + 25.3С
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 08:53:30 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3210 on: July 03, 2019, 09:05:22 PM »
Ossifrage means what it says - bone breaker. Any reason for picking that as a handle? I'm sure there are locals here in my vicinity (in Cosa Nostra land) that would call that their main occupation.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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sesyf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3211 on: July 03, 2019, 09:09:52 PM »
Hmph, too complicated...

The bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus), also known as the lammergeier (or lammergeyer) or ossifrage, is a bird of prey and the only member of the genus Gypaetus.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3212 on: July 03, 2019, 09:32:43 PM »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3213 on: July 03, 2019, 09:37:57 PM »
The effect on Chukchi / Beaufort has been brutal and is going to continue for a week at least, especially on Chukchi and continuing on ESS. Attached the EC forecast for Sunday, when the effects of the Alaska heat wave on the Arctic peak IMO. However the extreme heat on Alaska will continue until next Tuesday or so, when it is expected 31C (88F) in Fairbanks, for instance. Barrow will reach 8C min / 13C max on Monday.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 10:01:02 PM by Sterks »

Ossifrage

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3214 on: July 03, 2019, 09:48:01 PM »
Sesyf wins the name game. The ossifrage (which literally does mean bone breaker) is also one of the common names for the bird of prey otherwise known as the bearded vulture, lammergeier, or Gypaetus barbatus. I've used it, or variations, as my handle elsewhere where I've done pseudonymous science and statistics reporting, so adopted it here as well. No connection to East Germany. And thus ends that digression.

As for Isachsen, those temperature records are so extreme they'd be funny if this wasn't all quite serious. It's difficult to get a context for the effects of industrialization on climate, especially if we want to compare things to the way they were well before the satellite era. Indeed, our baseline "climatology" numbers on many metrics are averages that start in the 1970s.

To get some idea how cold Ellef Ringnes was historically, though, it's worth considering the archaeological history of the Thule Culture (proto-Inuit). Late in the Medieval Warm Period, the Thule expanded north and east. Archaeological investigations have been fairly cursory, considering the environment in question. The best described of these eastern settlements was at Herlufsholm Strand (the cape north of Independence Fjord on the northeast coast of Greenland), but the most northerly was at Frigg Fjord, which is actually quite close to Cape Morris Jessup.

Nevertheless, during the three decades that Isachsen was operated as a manned weather station, no expeditions discovered any trace of prior settlement on Ellef Ringnes. The consensus of the archaeological community then, as now, is that a people who literally colonized the north coast of Greenland considered Ellef Ringnes (and the islands near it) to be too cold and inhospitable to live.

On that station record day in August 2016, I wouldn't have even needed a long-sleeved shirt to walk around Isachsen.

That's probably not a sequence of observations that upholds robust scientific rigor, but I think it underscores that Arctic warming is now well past the levels of the Medieval Warm Period. PGAS and the Peary Channel won't be the last parts of the Arctic to go ice-free, but an ice-free PGAS and/or Peary Channel are likely indicators that the Arctic is in the final phase of transition toward a BOE. And I think that conditions make that possible this year, at least for the PGAS. By comparison, in 2012, it had some open water (mostly in the southeast, at the outflow to the Danish Strait and Maclean Strait) but still substantial ice elsewhere, and Peary Channel was essentially entirely frozen.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3215 on: July 03, 2019, 10:13:16 PM »
Congrats Sesyf!! :)

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3216 on: July 03, 2019, 10:41:32 PM »
Sea temperature at 5m and 6m depth from whoi buoy itp103. https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163356
Other buoys nearing the ice edge show similar rises at the moment so this may not be unusual for this location ~200km north west of Mclure Strait.
The approximate location is highlighted on the worldview aqua modis image from yesterday (slightly clearer than today) https://go.nasa.gov/2XplSX7
Quote
ITP103 was deployed on a 2.2 m thick ice floe in the Beaufort Sea on October 1, 2018 at 78° 53.3 N, 134° 52.4 W as part of the Stratified Ocean Dynamics of the Arctic (SODA) project from the USCGC Healy. On the same icefloe, a Naval Postgraduate School Arctic Ocean Flux Buoy (AOFB), and ice mass balance buoy were also installed. The ITP includes a second generation prototype MAVS current sensor operating on a pattern profiling schedule including 2 one-way profiles between 7 and 760 m depth each day and SBE-37 microcats fixed at 5m and 6 m depths.
Anyone have access to the mass balance buoy?

Ossifrage

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3217 on: July 03, 2019, 11:10:56 PM »
For context, here's a quickly assembled map with the areas I've been discussing labelled.

Meanwhile, note that the satellite image uniquorn just posted shows a wide CAA/CAB crack extending at least as far east as Borden Island, with fairly dodgy-looking ice encroaching into the northern boundary of the PGAS (albeit mostly off-frame).

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting seas
« Reply #3218 on: July 03, 2019, 11:40:39 PM »
As far as forecast interpretation, Michael’s one was not that outlandish (it’s a tad cooler) and Friv stopped posting, which correlates well with the change of weather.
That as long as outlandish is not “out of what the tribe thinks”.

+1      As long as a poster can back up their ideas and predictions with reasonable evidence and logic, then in my view they should be allowed to post without personal harassment.  If you disagree with someone, then debating that is one of the ways that science progresses -- just make the argument, not the accusation.   
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 05:47:36 AM by Pagophilus »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3219 on: July 04, 2019, 12:05:19 AM »
June 28 - July 2.

2018.

These animations are, as usual, terrific.  Thanks.  The ice front is so visibly retreating on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides, and most particularly on the Pacific side, as several have noted.  Heat continues to flow in there, and ice continues to exit the Fram.  The Nullschool July 7 surface wind forecast favors both processes carrying on until at least then.  The shrinkage of the pack over just 4 days comes across powerfully.  Sometimes the weather does not have to be super-dramatic, just consistent, for significant changes to happen.   

AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3220 on: July 04, 2019, 12:30:12 AM »
It seems like if the northern CAA eventually would melt this year, there's be no solid ice being pushed in from the north to fix it. Which would mean yet another region added to the list of bad preconditionings...

But things could still change during the melt season, letting thicker ice drift back to the CAA region.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3221 on: July 04, 2019, 03:02:22 AM »
The crack north of the CAA extends to Ellesmere. It ends right about here.


oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3223 on: July 04, 2019, 04:57:39 AM »
Actual ice drift over the past two days. Chukchi ice is strongly compacted into the CAB, while the region north of Svalbard/FJL is hurled into the Fram. Best pray for this to stop.
Meanwhile, Inner Basin ice area continues to track lowest in the AMSR2 record.

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3224 on: July 04, 2019, 08:31:24 AM »
Looks like the Laptev fast ice is finally shattering fully. On the latest worldview shot you can see massive cracks everywhere there isn't clouds

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3225 on: July 04, 2019, 08:51:15 AM »
Both the Pacific and the Atlantic side will get hammered during the next 5-6 days or so. After that it looks like things will calm down somewhat and give the icemore of s relief from constant hammering. Of course, a minor cyclone moving directly over "weak" ice in the border area between Laptev/ESS and CAB at D6-D8 might be a problem at that moment if the forecast holds. The damage is already done however.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3226 on: July 04, 2019, 09:25:15 AM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1146657933469442049

Quote
The high temperature Wednesday of 83F (28.3C) at Kodiak appears to be a new record high for the month of July. Previous record 82F (27.8C) set multiple times, most recently July 10, 2004. #akwx @Climatologist49

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3227 on: July 04, 2019, 10:07:16 AM »
terrible

Poldergeist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3228 on: July 04, 2019, 10:40:43 AM »
That is not a real chart of july 3rd. It would mean a BOE within two weeks.

this is:https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3229 on: July 04, 2019, 10:44:30 AM »
Polynya at 86.7N in the old shear fracture north of FJL. https://go.nasa.gov/325hgJs
It looks like very low concentration ice there in some areas. click to run.
worldview aqua modis, jul2-4, slight contrast
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 10:52:21 AM by uniquorn »

AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3230 on: July 04, 2019, 11:05:47 AM »
That is not a real chart of july 3rd. It would mean a BOE within two weeks.
It's not the real thickness. It merely shows how easily the ice will melt (which may still be thick). And it seems right now pretty much every place is vulnerable.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Viggy

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3231 on: July 04, 2019, 11:57:50 AM »
That is not a real chart of july 3rd. It would mean a BOE within two weeks.
It's not the real thickness. It merely shows how easily the ice will melt (which may still be thick). And it seems right now pretty much every place is vulnerable.

Uni Bremen gets tripped up by surface melt in the summer time. Been discussed elsewhere but Bremen has very little value, if any, in the summertime

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3232 on: July 04, 2019, 12:23:26 PM »
What's up with the jetstream going the wrong direction here?  ???

Reallybigbunny

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3233 on: July 04, 2019, 12:56:34 PM »
The ice and the jet stream are munted! Look out world weather!

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3234 on: July 04, 2019, 01:26:00 PM »
Anyone have access to the mass balance buoy?

Such IMB buoy data as there is can be downloaded from:

http://imb-crrel-dartmouth.org/live-data/

I'm afraid I can't make much sense of it for the 2018 deployments. According to a personal communication from Don Perovich "There were some growing pains, particularly with the software" of the SIMB3.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3235 on: July 04, 2019, 01:47:08 PM »
Mercator is showing that heat for the Pacific side of Arctic is building more and more, and the signal is now reaching a depth of 100 meters. While there is still a least a month for ocean heat to build up.... Definitively not good. It will not directly influence the ongoing melting. But if heat starts to accumlulate to such depth, it will be difficult to extirpate it. And this will have lingering effect.

30 m:

http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/20190712/map/3/1/2#5/75.942/-96.636

100 m :

http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/20190712/map/3/1/3#5/75.942/-96.636

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3236 on: July 04, 2019, 01:56:13 PM »
Interesting that, apart from the wamth affecting the Pacific side peaking on Sunday or Monday and slowly waning in depth and strength, the 00z EC forecast seems even colder in general than prior runs. Tthe Laptev is spared of another warm spell, the Beaufort turns off, and the CAA eventually.

Apart from lack of insolation, will a stormier weather bring 1) dispersion and rain or eventually 2) straight up coldness? My first impression is 1) in the periphery and 2) in the core of the CAB.
Because of 1) area will continue going down (more slowly) , as will extent due to the damage in June, but we'll see how long slow-down lasts.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3237 on: July 04, 2019, 02:28:44 PM »
That is not a real chart of july 3rd. It would mean a BOE within two weeks.
It's not the real thickness. It merely shows how easily the ice will melt (which may still be thick). And it seems right now pretty much every place is vulnerable.

Uni Bremen gets tripped up by surface melt in the summer time. Been discussed elsewhere but Bremen has very little value, if any, in the summertime
Other than showing wet areas

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3238 on: July 04, 2019, 02:55:01 PM »
Because of 1) area will continue going down (more slowly) , as will extent due to the damage in June, but we'll see how long slow-down lasts.
I think that the máximum drop on extent is going to happen in the following 2 weeks, according to the ADS NIPR 2010's average drop. I also see weakness on 2019 Arctic sea ice, so the drops could be more than average.

The ASI extent summer cliff has started: 2019 must have drops on the order of 81 to 95K km2 on the following 35 days, to follow the 2010's average extent.

Obviously, some drops will be less than that and others will be century drops.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 03:01:39 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3239 on: July 04, 2019, 03:02:49 PM »
Slater's model: gaining traction!

Projected extent on Aug 23, 2019: 4,46 M sq km (strong second place)

NSIDC extent on these dates:

2012: 4,26
2007: 4,95
2016: 5,00
2011-18 average: 5,16
2001-2010 average: 6,02

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3240 on: July 04, 2019, 03:07:02 PM »
The forecast is still looking somewhat better, compared to what we've seen during May and June. I'm saying somewhat, because there is a bit of high pressure trying to push in via the Beaufort (D7-D10 say it won't happen).

I think 2019 is now going to go lowest on the charts, but there may be a stall due to a lack of movement in the weather, a few days from now. I'm now wondering whether 2019 needs to build up a big lead vs 2012, in case there is no GAC to accelerate things. Because in the first week of August, the floor dropped under 2012.

PS 2019 is now lowest on record for compactness.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3241 on: July 04, 2019, 03:14:33 PM »
Because of 1) area will continue going down (more slowly) , as will extent due to the damage in June, but we'll see how long slow-down lasts.
I think that the máximum drop on extent is going to happen in the following 2 weeks, according to the ADS NIPR 2010's average drop. I also see weakness on 2019 Arctic sea ice, so the drops could be more than average.


Yes I agree, that’s why I say how long the slow down lasts. By slow down I meant the weather wrt the last three, almost four weeks! Many regions will melt out now no matter what because ice is thin, broken, and even with cold anomalies we are in the warmest segment of the summer.
 But let’s see how long the turn of weather lasts.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3242 on: July 04, 2019, 05:25:42 PM »


I think 2019 is now going to go lowest on the charts, but there may be a stall due to a lack of movement in the weather, a few days from now. I'm now wondering whether 2019 needs to build up a big lead vs 2012, in case there is no GAC to accelerate things. Because in the first week of August, the floor dropped under 2012.

PS 2019 is now lowest on record for compactness.

With the drop in compactness, the state of the ice, and solid drops in area that will continue (imo), I'm beginning to wonder if were going to see a major decoupling in area / extent, while they've generally followed each other with some kind of lag, i.e. major drops in area generally would translate to extent drops eventually. My prediction / gut feeling right now this drop in compactness is just the beginning, and going forward we'll smash the area records, but the extent records will either just barely be broken or not broken at all with just moderate to normal weather... On the other hand if we get a major GAC that compacts / melts all the ice that's currently spreading out all bets are off...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3243 on: July 04, 2019, 05:35:49 PM »
(being no expert but) I don't see how the weather forecast is positive for the next few days. I see warmth over the Barents/Kara to kill all the exported, presumably stronger ice. I also see sunshine and warmth over the Beaufort to destroy the already mushy ice. True, the Laptev/ESS is cool and cloudy but it probably does not matter much as there is a very strong melt momentum there. I can see that the next few days look somewhat better than June with all its killing heat but to me it looks still quite bad for the ice. Am I wrong?

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3244 on: July 04, 2019, 05:58:54 PM »
Four seas have similar huge anomalies of daily albedo-warming potential. Kara, Laptev, Chukchi, Beaufort.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3245 on: July 04, 2019, 06:15:29 PM »
(being no expert but) I don't see how the weather forecast is positive for the next few days.

Sorry, I should've been clearer. It's from D4 onwards that things start to really look better. If it comes about that way.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3246 on: July 04, 2019, 08:49:06 PM »
What is going on here between Wrangell and the coast? To me it looks like there is a current flowing under the ice. Note also the wavelike sawtooth pattern of the ice edge.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3247 on: July 04, 2019, 08:59:00 PM »
Slater's model: gaining traction!

Projected extent on Aug 23, 2019: 4,46 M sq km (strong second place)

NSIDC extent on these dates:

2012: 4,26
2007: 4,95
2016: 5,00
2011-18 average: 5,16
2001-2010 average: 6,02

Thanks for these regular updates, El Cid.

Since lately I've taken an interest in the daily Slater maps and couldn't find an archive of them, I started saving them. Here's a gif of the first 7: June 27 - July 4.

As discussed previously in detail, these are concentration maps colored by previous years' probability that ice at that concentration will survive 50 days. The graph (July 4) shows area x probability integrated over the whole map. For details see Slater's website:
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

Main changes this week: the Laptev sector regressed from orange to blue; the Bearing sector progressed from blue to orange.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 09:23:33 PM by petm »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3248 on: July 04, 2019, 09:09:24 PM »
That is not a real chart of july 3rd. It would mean a BOE within two weeks.

this is:https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png
The truth is somewhere between in this case I think.

We know there is a substantial amount of MYI spread out in that "thin" area shown.  Over the winter, it was divided, and divided again, with spaces between filled in with ice which now is rapidly being converted to soup... that's what the consistent 100K+ drops in area are telling me, especially when coupled with far more modest drops and occasional increases in extent.

It certainly isn't going to flatline in a BoE, but I'm expecting CAPIE to make a hole in the floor.  It could lead to this paradoxical outcome... 2nd - 4th lowest annual extent while having lowest annual area.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3249 on: July 04, 2019, 09:29:23 PM »
What is going on here between Wrangell and the coast? To me it looks like there is a current flowing under the ice. Note also the wavelike sawtooth pattern of the ice edge.
When was this picture originally taken? It's cloudy as hell now and from AMSR2, all that ice is almost gone...

Nevertheless it's in fact a zone reached by currents from the Pacific. The fast recess of the ice edge here is not just a thing of the winds.