I've often suspected a repeat of 2007 conditions may result in near ice free conditions, considering that 2007 had to contend with a much larger proportion of thicker multi-year ice than has been around since then.
With a lot of heat in June, a strong retreat in the Pacific and with more compaction and less dispersion evident this year seems to have some similarities to 2007. In general there is more dispersal of ice
currently in the ESS region than there was
same day 2007 NSIDC ice comparison shows a strong retreat in the Pacific centre. Compared to 2007 this year is retreating faster towards Chukchi and not as fast towards ESS. Similar speed of retreat in Laptev which suprises me due to the severity of both wind and heat in that sector this year.
Temps at 925hp show how much hotter this year is than 2007. The strongest heat is more towards Laptev this year, but is overall noticeably warmer.
Wind driven compaction and export was an important factor in 2007. There were some quite strong winds over the Pacific sector that drove the ice towards the Atlantic. Keep in mind Ekman transport will push the ice to the right of the wind vector so the ice will travel much more away from the Chukchi region than the roughly right angle winds suggest.
In contrast this year winds have definitely been milder over the Pacific sector, although there have been some very strong winds towards Kara and some moderate winds near Laptev.
Overall more heat, but less help from winds than 2007. Assuming the pattern continues, is that enough to set up a similarly devestating melt season as 2007, and what impact would that have with the multi-year ice greatly reduced?
Is the fact that ice retreat towards Laptev is only similar to 2007 and not well ahead despite apparently much hotter conditions and solid wind important? Was the ice there thicker this year? Or was the heat perhaps not as strong as shown in the models (I believe a lot of extrapolation is involved producing these temperature maps).