Even if 2019 does not end up below 2012, the SIPN estimates all hovering just above 4 million km2 are historically low
Walsh, J. E., W. L. Chapman, and F. Fetterer. 2015, updated 2016. Gridded monthly sea ice extent and concentration, 1850 onwards, Version 1.1. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media.
http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5833PZ5.
As for the horse race with 2012, am I the only one thinking that most of the SiPN estimates, with average of 4.2 km2 extent at minimum, are too high? Possibly because they are based on historical correlations that no longer apply to a new Arctic sea ice regime where all the ice older than 2 years may be virtually extinct by the end of 2019 (except for nooks and crannies in CAA).
Perhaps I am overreacting to latest NSIDC Arctic sea ice concentration image. To me it looks like a pile of slush that could be flushed out through the Fram Strait with the right combination of warmth, clear skies and a couple of storms. It does not look like an ice pack with enough resistance to withstand the remaining 45% of melt season.