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jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3300 on: July 05, 2019, 09:47:46 PM »
Currently it's 21C at the weather station at Niuqsuk Airport, just east of Barrow,  with the dewpoint at 11C, with the breeze blowing straight out onto the sea
Those dewpoints mean the ice will be literally sweating the moisture out of the air even without rainfall, with the attendant transfer of heat.  Same applies to any open water as well, assuming SSTs of around zero.
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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3301 on: July 05, 2019, 10:25:35 PM »
Winds are changing in a lot of Arctic locations. Here's a summary of what I'm seeing now per Windy.com

It's blowing from the Atlantic through Baffin and the CAA. It's going against the current through Nares and exiting into the Lincoln Sea at 20 knots +, bringing some warm air with it. The CAB / CAA crack will probably expand in the immediate future.

On the E side of Greenland, the wind is aligned with the Fram current. The wind is pulling in the ice immediately N. of Svalbard so export thru Fram should be strong.

Cyclonic wind has returned to the Beaufort gyre. The ice in there is going to give up due to dizziness after so many changes in direction.

Winds entering through the Bering Strait continue, but no longer seem headed for the ice pack. They are taking a hard right around the Alaska coast and heading inland east of Banks Island.

The winds from the CAA are blowing all the way across to Siberia. The seas along the ice front in the Pacific are ~ 1m and that"s probably contributing to wear and tear on the ice.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2019, 10:55:16 PM by Rich »

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3302 on: July 05, 2019, 10:28:28 PM »
I'm afraid a July cooldown is too late to save the ice. Apparently the amount of solar radiation reflected from the Arctic in June is almost a decisive determination of the final September extent (r = 0.91).  https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025819

Interesting study!

The correlation is pretty good - but some years eg 2008 and 2014 there was a considerable difference.

Interestingly, using the last ten years plus 2007, the total spread between highest and lowest extent values (JAXA) on July 1 vs July 31 is only 720 km sq vs 660 km sq. July is really consistent. This would seem to support the idea June's conditions strongly affect July.

bairgon

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3303 on: July 05, 2019, 10:47:30 PM »
It's blowing from the Atlantic through Baffin and the CAA. It's going against the current through Nares and exiting into the Lincoln Sea at 20 knots +, bringing some warm air with it.

Certainly is. The Parry Channel has started to break up, but was torched today:

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3304 on: July 05, 2019, 10:57:56 PM »
Seems like a potential polynya might develop in the area around 82°N 150°W in the western CAB. Many small holes in the ice there that vän be sen at EOADIS NASA. Troublesome!

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3305 on: July 05, 2019, 11:11:23 PM »
ECMWF is now hinting towards weak dipole. I'll await tomorrow's forecast.
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3306 on: July 05, 2019, 11:15:09 PM »
If HYCOM is anywhere near correct it looks like we could easily lose 1M KM^2 of area this coming week... that kind of collapse would put 2012 to shame.
If we go seriously low this year, I think it will be via a long whimper rather than a BANG.

Hmmm... but Nature tends to change in starts and fits and sawtooth shapes. Looking at 2012, e.g., it really only had two big weeks, June 5th to the 13th and Aug 2nd to Aug 9th where it lost a lot of ice - on the order or 130k km sq/day or more. Very interestingly, if you use JAXA to look at 2008 and 2012 together, they're very similar except for the two huge drops over those two weekly periods. Average those two weeks to be like the weeks that followed them and there's a total additional 1M+ km sq, putting 2012's extent above both 2016 and 2017, say 4,250k km sq.

Nature loves her sudden shifts around trends.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3307 on: July 05, 2019, 11:18:58 PM »
Laptev fast ice breaking up with great rapidity in the region of the Lena Delta.

The fast ice nearer the delta broke up extensively about a week ago (it disappeared long ago right next to the delta).  The ice now breaking up in the image was spotted by grixm yesterday.  Today, there are many more cracks in this area, which to me indicates ice that has passed a certain threshold of integrity and thinness.  Melting may be rapid from here.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3308 on: July 05, 2019, 11:23:29 PM »
July 8 Nullschool forecast, surface winds and temps.

Looking somewhat toasty for the ESS...

ajouis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3309 on: July 05, 2019, 11:42:31 PM »
The fast ice nearer the delta broke up extensively about a week ago (it disappeared long ago right next to the delta).  The ice now breaking up in the image was spotted by grixm yesterday.  Today, there are many more cracks in this area, which to me indicates ice that has passed a certain threshold of integrity and thinness.  Melting may be rapid from here.
Do you think we will be able to use the upcoming piomas data to get the threshold where sea ice breaks apart this season?

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3310 on: July 05, 2019, 11:42:44 PM »
Laptev fast ice breaking up with great rapidity in the region of the Lena Delta.

The fast ice nearer the delta broke up extensively about a week ago (it disappeared long ago right next to the delta).  The ice now breaking up in the image was spotted by grixm yesterday.  Today, there are many more cracks in this area, which to me indicates ice that has passed a certain threshold of integrity and thinness.  Melting may be rapid from here.
July 8 Nullschool forecast, surface winds and temps.

Looking somewhat toasty for the ESS...

For both reasons, I think that the Northern Sea Route will open earlier this year. End of July? On the middle of july (10th. to 20th.)? Beginning of August? Any bets?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3311 on: July 05, 2019, 11:45:27 PM »

Looking somewhat toasty for the ESS...

If Climate Reanalyzer is even close on its 3 day maximum temperature forecast, it will be more than toasty.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3312 on: July 05, 2019, 11:46:30 PM »
If HYCOM is anywhere near correct it looks like we could easily lose 1M KM^2 of area this coming week... that kind of collapse would put 2012 to shame.
If we go seriously low this year, I think it will be via a long whimper rather than a BANG.

Hmmm... but Nature tends to change in starts and fits and sawtooth shapes. Looking at 2012, e.g., it really only had two big weeks, June 5th to the 13th and Aug 2nd to Aug 9th where it lost a lot of ice - on the order or 130k km sq/day or more. Very interestingly, if you use JAXA to look at 2008 and 2012 together, they're very similar except for the two huge drops over those two weekly periods. Average those two weeks to be like the weeks that followed them and there's a total additional 1M+ km sq, putting 2012's extent above both 2016 and 2017, say 4,250k km sq.

Nature loves her sudden shifts around trends.

Consider it fate, but Gerontocrat posted the daily extent losses for July 2012 on the data thread today. You'll see a couple of intervals of serious losses there as well.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3313 on: July 05, 2019, 11:51:38 PM »
ECMWF is now hinting towards weak dipole. I'll await tomorrow's forecast.

This isn't entirely surprising. Medium range guidance typically underforecasts block stability. It's been a long standing bias for as long as I can remember while doing forecasting. The EC is no exception, although it's a bit better than others. Interestingly, the CMC/GEM generally agrees.

In perusing some of the forecaster's discussions in Alaska (with the record smashing heat wave there), NWS Anchorage mentions this as well:

In general, we prefer the Canadian solution for the ridge to break
down slower, given the lack of any strong mid or upper level
disturbances to break down the ridge or displace it as fast as
some models suggest. Typically, when one of these weather
patterns gets "locked in place" the models struggle with pattern
change and are all too often too quick to make said change. This in
turn keeps temperatures warmer for a longer period of time.



The ensembles have generally moved towards longer block duration over the past few runs as well and that kind of dprog/dt is usually a warning sign.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3314 on: July 05, 2019, 11:57:04 PM »
If HYCOM is anywhere near correct it looks like we could easily lose 1M KM^2 of area this coming week... that kind of collapse would put 2012 to shame.
If we go seriously low this year, I think it will be via a long whimper rather than a BANG.

Hmmm... but Nature tends to change in starts and fits and sawtooth shapes. Looking at 2012, e.g., it really only had two big weeks, June 5th to the 13th and Aug 2nd to Aug 9th where it lost a lot of ice - on the order or 130k km sq/day or more. Very interestingly, if you use JAXA to look at 2008 and 2012 together, they're very similar except for the two huge drops over those two weekly periods. Average those two weeks to be like the weeks that followed them and there's a total additional 1M+ km sq, putting 2012's extent above both 2016 and 2017, say 4,250k km sq.

Nature loves her sudden shifts around trends.

Consider it fate, but Gerontocrat posted the daily extent losses for July 2012 on the data thread today. You'll see a couple of intervals of serious losses there as well.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3315 on: July 06, 2019, 12:59:28 AM »
While we have all been focusing on the extreme heat on the Pacific side, the Atlantic side is heating up as well.

Might be some new records in Svalbard in the next few days. 

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3316 on: July 06, 2019, 01:41:32 AM »

Looking somewhat toasty for the ESS...

If Climate Reanalyzer is even close on its 3 day maximum temperature forecast, it will be more than toasty.

I couldn't find an understatement emoji...      ;)
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 02:41:29 AM by Pagophilus »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3317 on: July 06, 2019, 01:51:00 AM »
The fast ice nearer the delta broke up extensively about a week ago (it disappeared long ago right next to the delta).  The ice now breaking up in the image was spotted by grixm yesterday.  Today, there are many more cracks in this area, which to me indicates ice that has passed a certain threshold of integrity and thinness.  Melting may be rapid from here.
Do you think we will be able to use the upcoming piomas data to get the threshold where sea ice breaks apart this season?

An interesting idea!  Maybe this would be done retrospectively first... where did ice break up in the past and what was Piomas 'saying' at that point?  Are there correlations with indicated Piomas thickness and time of fracturing?
   
But all in all, I would be hesitant, since Piomas is modeled, not measured, and its output has a general quality to it (as would be expected).  And I imagine so much probably depends on ice quality as well as thickness when it comes to ice breaking up.  And also, are we maybe talking about fast ice in your question, because much of the pack ice is already pretty rubbly already?  Having shot my mouth off (something of a problem I regret to say) I now step aside and let the experts take charge.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 02:02:52 AM by Pagophilus »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3318 on: July 06, 2019, 02:00:55 AM »
Laptev fast ice breaking up with great rapidity in the region of the Lena Delta.

The fast ice nearer the delta broke up extensively about a week ago (it disappeared long ago right next to the delta).  The ice now breaking up in the image was spotted by grixm yesterday.  Today, there are many more cracks in this area, which to me indicates ice that has passed a certain threshold of integrity and thinness.  Melting may be rapid from here.
July 8 Nullschool forecast, surface winds and temps.

Looking somewhat toasty for the ESS...

For both reasons, I think that the Northern Sea Route will open earlier this year. End of July? On the middle of july (10th. to 20th.)? Beginning of August? Any bets?

I see what you mean.  There is already almost a route there to be threaded from the Atlantic through the Laptev, with the only big obstacle being the ESS... That is a lot of ice though.  I have absolutely no idea really, but what the heck ... first week of August.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3319 on: July 06, 2019, 02:22:21 AM »
Someone up above, or in another thread, commented on the air temperature today at the airport close to Utqiaġvik   

I can’t find the post now, but it seems that Rick Thoman agrees. 

This is a big time heat wave for Alaska!

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3320 on: July 06, 2019, 02:22:33 AM »
Consider it fate, but Gerontocrat posted the daily extent losses for July 2012 on the data thread today. You'll see a couple of intervals of serious losses there as well.

Motivated by your graph, attached is NSIDC extent for July 4 2019 compared with Aug 4 2012.  It gives an idea of what would have to melt out for in the next month to keep pace with 2012.  It looks pretty feasible to me, but others have way more experience.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 02:31:28 AM by Pagophilus »

Treform2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3321 on: July 06, 2019, 02:28:20 AM »
A very interesting article on melt ponds. Let’s hope it leads to more accurate analysis. https://www.wired.com/story/magnetic-materials-help-explain-how-arctic-ice-melts/

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3322 on: July 06, 2019, 02:30:26 AM »

For both reasons, I think that the Northern Sea Route will open earlier this year. End of July? On the middle of july (10th. to 20th.)? Beginning of August? Any bets?

The biggest obstacle right now to the coastal route opening is the wind pushing ice toward the ESS and Laptev coast.

If the wind turns around and blows in the other direction, I'd give it about 2 days from that point.

If the wind keeps blowing as is, it could be many weeks.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3323 on: July 06, 2019, 02:42:52 AM »

Looking somewhat toasty for the ESS...

If Climate Reanalyzer is even close on its 3 day maximum temperature forecast, it will be more than toasty.

3 day max is less revealing than 3 day average.

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3324 on: July 06, 2019, 02:48:03 AM »
Motivated by your graph, attached is NSIDC extent for July 4 2019 compared with Aug 4 2012.  It gives an idea of what would have to melt out for in the next month to keep pace with 2012.  It looks pretty feasible to me, but others have way more experience.

Funny, just as this was posted, I was practicing dowloading NSIDC data and I had a hi-res concentration map up on another screen. The concentration really took a beating in the last week.

All of the areas that have to melt out are heavily preconditioned and have low or very low concentrations, with the possible exception of some areas in the CAA, and 2019 is already ahead in the Chukchi. The dark grey on the Atlantic side is more due to high export than low melting so it could stick around at the expense of the CAB.

All in all, my newbie eyes think that odds are high that 2019 melt will exceed that in the next month.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3325 on: July 06, 2019, 03:17:54 AM »
The biggest obstacle right now to the coastal route opening is the wind pushing ice toward the ESS and Laptev coast.

If the wind turns around and blows in the other direction, I'd give it about 2 days from that point.

If the wind keeps blowing as is, it could be many weeks.
The ESS should open a little, with this winds. And it must open more, with the heat that will melt the ASI.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3326 on: July 06, 2019, 03:25:46 AM »
Consider it fate, but Gerontocrat posted the daily extent losses for July 2012 on the data thread today. You'll see a couple of intervals of serious losses there as well.

Motivated by your graph, attached is NSIDC extent for July 4 2019 compared with Aug 4 2012.  It gives an idea of what would have to melt out for in the next month to keep pace with 2012.  It looks pretty feasible to me, but others have way more experience.

Seems doable to me, the ice in the upper Beaufort is complete slush right now;  https://wvs.earthdata.nasa.gov/api/v1/snapshot?REQUEST=GetSnapshot&TIME=2019-07-05&BBOX=-2054144,79360,-1213440,882176&CRS=EPSG:3413&LAYERS=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&FORMAT=image/jpeg&WIDTH=821&HEIGHT=784&ts=1562376271669

Same with ESS

https://wvs.earthdata.nasa.gov/api/v1/snapshot?REQUEST=GetSnapshot&TIME=2019-07-05&BBOX=-1061888,1387008,-221184,2189824&CRS=EPSG:3413&LAYERS=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&FORMAT=image/jpeg&WIDTH=821&HEIGHT=784&ts=1562376331752

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3327 on: July 06, 2019, 04:39:06 AM »
independent of the exact extent and area numbers, i start to think that the shape of the remaining ice in the CAB will be eye-catching as well. as i said earlier, i expect an ice free pole (not just a few hundred meter polnya) and the volume will most probably hit new record lows for the rest of the year. very interesting to watch and i think it won't take so much time anymore until we shall get a view answers to year-old questions.
I actually am not so sure the pole goes ice-free. It is simply SO hard to make it happen because the vicinity is already refreezing by September. I think a record minimum is now 50%+ likely. But I don't know if that is necessarily accompanied by ^, and if it is, I think it will be "barely".

The Slater model's appearance for 8/23-24 is what I would expect at that time. It is finally picking up on the fact that the entire PAC front is going to collapse. This gives us an easy path to a 2-2.5MKM^2 area and ~3M KM^2 extent minimum, the question is whether we go any lower.

TEALIGHT: Do you have updated forecast maps based on your albedo model? Would love to see!

The more open water near tor above 80N the more the refreeze lags in autumn (especially if the SSTs have timre to increase).  The recent cooler weather in Laptev sea may just save us this year from open water extending  to the pole, though at least according to DMI the ice is all <=1.5m in thickness from the Laptev bite to the pole. That chart isn't considered that good, has PIOMAS spoken?

The heat accumulating on the Pacific side is a worry though. The Chukchi sea struggled to refreeze last year, the Bering barely managed to at all. The adjacent parts of the CAB lacked a cold bulwark on that side in autumn and early winter. I fear that it will be worse this year

Right now the front is retreating fast in the sector, clouds cleared today around Wrangel Island and the Chukchi ice edge as the next round of heat moves in, I've attached a worldview image

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3328 on: July 06, 2019, 04:49:38 AM »
Laptev fast ice breaking up with great rapidity in the region of the Lena Delta.

The fast ice nearer the delta broke up extensively about a week ago (it disappeared long ago right next to the delta).  The ice now breaking up in the image was spotted by grixm yesterday.  Today, there are many more cracks in this area, which to me indicates ice that has passed a certain threshold of integrity and thinness.  Melting may be rapid from here.
July 8 Nullschool forecast, surface winds and temps.

Looking somewhat toasty for the ESS...

For both reasons, I think that the Northern Sea Route will open earlier this year. End of July? On the middle of july (10th. to 20th.)? Beginning of August? Any bets?

The strait from the Kara to Laptev appears to be open already. I think there will be open water through the ESS by the end of the month, given the heat over the next week

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3329 on: July 06, 2019, 04:55:15 AM »
Even if 2019 does not end up below 2012, the SIPN estimates all hovering just above 4 million km2 are historically low

Walsh, J. E., W. L. Chapman, and F. Fetterer. 2015, updated 2016. Gridded monthly sea ice extent and concentration, 1850 onwards, Version 1.1. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media. http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5833PZ5.

As for the horse race with 2012, am I the only one thinking that most of the SiPN estimates, with average of 4.2 km2 extent at minimum, are too high?  Possibly because they are based on historical correlations that no longer apply to a new Arctic sea ice regime where all the ice older than 2 years may be virtually extinct by the end of 2019 (except for nooks and crannies in CAA).

   Perhaps I am overreacting to latest NSIDC Arctic sea ice concentration image.  To me it looks like a pile of slush that could be flushed out through the Fram Strait with the right combination of warmth, clear skies and a couple of storms.  It does not look like an ice pack with enough resistance to withstand the remaining 45% of melt season.


Burnrate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3330 on: July 06, 2019, 05:11:51 AM »
...
   Perhaps I am overreacting to latest NSIDC Arctic sea ice concentration image.  To me it looks like a pile of slush that could be flushed out through the Fram Strait with the right combination of warmth, clear skies and a couple of storms.  It does not look like an ice pack with enough resistance to withstand the remaining 45% of melt season.


That concentration image is pretty frightening.  I've been thinking 2019 has an easy path to second place and could beat 2012 with its own big storm.  Looking at charts like that make it seem like it could beat 2012 without one.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3331 on: July 06, 2019, 06:54:21 AM »
Currently it's 21C at the weather station at Niuqsuk Airport, just east of Barrow,  with the dewpoint at 11C, with the breeze blowing straight out onto the sea
Those dewpoints mean the ice will be literally sweating the moisture out of the air even without rainfall, with the attendant transfer of heat.  Same applies to any open water as well, assuming SSTs of around zero.

Windy says that, right now temps are up to 25C on Wrangel Island, with similar maximums each day.

(Like the temperature) the dew point drops once the air gets over the ice(3C at the surface, it rises to 6C at 950hPa and 8C at 925, at the pt indicated), but a large and increasing area will experience dew points of 2-4C in the days(and days) to come.

I've attached bunch of screenshots from Windy to illustrate, of surface dewpoint, temperature and humidity. as well as clouds for daytime on the 8th(ie 2 days out). 3C dewpoint, 4C temp and 98% humidity, which as it turns out is predicted to mark the edge of clouds - a lot of ESS ice will be undrr full sun as well. This is going to be interesting to watch

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3332 on: July 06, 2019, 07:26:58 AM »
The biggest obstacle right now to the coastal route opening is the wind pushing ice toward the ESS and Laptev coast.

If the wind turns around and blows in the other direction, I'd give it about 2 days from that point.

If the wind keeps blowing as is, it could be many weeks.
The ESS should open a little, with this winds. And it must open more, with the heat that will melt the ASI.

Hi Juan,

You are posting a picture at Wrangel island which cuts off the Siberian Islands

At that location, the wind is blowing in the opposite direction. The route will not open w/ that going on.


subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3333 on: July 06, 2019, 07:49:36 AM »
The ESS former fast ice ice is in no shape for the blowtorch its about to go under. Nor is the Laptev ice which is extremely grey, and collapsing now. A lot less cloud on worldview today

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3334 on: July 06, 2019, 07:53:12 AM »
PIOMAS #1

Suck it weatherdude

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3335 on: July 06, 2019, 08:10:17 AM »
Certainly is. The Parry Channel has started to break up, but was torched today:

... which actually looks quite beautiful:

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3336 on: July 06, 2019, 08:24:18 AM »
A very interesting article on melt ponds. Let’s hope it leads to more accurate analysis. https://www.wired.com/story/magnetic-materials-help-explain-how-arctic-ice-melts/
Very interesting article!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3337 on: July 06, 2019, 08:52:14 AM »
The biggest obstacle right now to the coastal route opening is the wind pushing ice toward the ESS and Laptev coast.

If the wind turns around and blows in the other direction, I'd give it about 2 days from that point.

If the wind keeps blowing as is, it could be many weeks.
The ESS should open a little, with this winds. And it must open more, with the heat that will melt the ASI.

Hi Juan,

You are posting a picture at Wrangel island which cuts off the Siberian Islands

At that location, the wind is blowing in the opposite direction. The route will not open w/ that going on.

As far as Nullschool is concerned, Juan has placed the wind arrows exactly right. Where did you get the idea that the wind was blowing from the north?

I've attached a gif from Nullschool, you can see which direction the wind is blowing. Where the circle is the wind is blowing 24 km/h, direction at 180 degrees, i.e. directly from the south.

The image shows Siberia at the top, Alaska at lower left, Wrangel Island just right of the circle, and the New Siberian Islands furher to the right along the Siberian coast.

« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 09:12:17 AM by binntho »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3338 on: July 06, 2019, 08:58:06 AM »

Wow, how did you manage to get a 6MB file even though it's already optimized? Was it like 30MB before?  ;D

May i ask, Binntho, are you using a screen grabbing tool to make the GIFs?

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3339 on: July 06, 2019, 09:06:44 AM »

Wow, how did you manage to get a 6MB file even though it's already optimized? Was it like 30MB before?  ;D

May i ask, Binntho, are you using a screen grabbing tool to make the GIFs?
Well, I'm experimenting with things but it never occurred to me that the gif was too big.

Usually I take individual screenshots and combine them into a gif using an online tool. This time I did a short screen recording and converted the resulting video into a gif using an online tool.

But having a normal European internet connection, I don't usually have to think about file sizes, although I have lately tried to remember to make them too wide for the forum so they will need a click to be fully downloaded.

EDIT: Tried to make a wider gif so that it would require a click. Managed instead to cut the size down by 2/3 - I think I'll leave it at that.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 09:15:20 AM by binntho »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3340 on: July 06, 2019, 09:24:51 AM »
The biggest obstacle right now to the coastal route opening is the wind pushing ice toward the ESS and Laptev coast.

If the wind turns around and blows in the other direction, I'd give it about 2 days from that point.

If the wind keeps blowing as is, it could be many weeks.
The ESS should open a little, with this winds. And it must open more, with the heat that will melt the ASI.

Hi Juan,

You are posting a picture at Wrangel island which cuts off the Siberian Islands

At that location, the wind is blowing in the opposite direction. The route will not open w/ that going on.

As far as Nullschool is concerned, Juan has placed the wind arrows exactly right. Where did you get the idea that the wind was blowing from the north?

I've attached a gif from Nullschool, you can see which direction the wind is blowing. Where the circle is the wind is blowing 24 km/h, direction at 180 degrees, i.e. directly from the south.

The image shows Siberia at the top, Alaska at lower left, Wrangel Island just right of the circle, and the New Siberian Islands furher to the right along the Siberian coast.

After a long and embarrassing outing a few days ago, I'm going to be very circumspect here. The gif you are sharing is showing winds flowing straight into the ESS coast just west of the dividing line of the Laptev / ESS boundary.

I don't need to go any further than your gif to confirm what I was articulating.

That's what I see. Completely genuine. If you see something different, let me know.

At Wrangel Island, the wind is blowing away from the coast.. at the New Siberian Islands it's blowing toward the coast.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3341 on: July 06, 2019, 09:28:48 AM »
having a normal European internet connection, I don't usually have to think about file sizes

My router broke recently and i was dependent on a slow mobile connection for almost a week. It was horrible. Since then i feel the people with a crappy internet connection.  ;)

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3342 on: July 06, 2019, 10:33:22 AM »
<edit Neven: When quoting someone's comment, try to remove all prior embedded quotes, especially if you're only replying to the last bit, because otherwise all the other readers have to scroll unnecessarily.>

After a long and embarrassing outing a few days ago, I'm going to be very circumspect here. The gif you are sharing is showing winds flowing straight into the ESS coast just west of the dividing line of the Laptev / ESS boundary.

I don't need to go any further than your gif to confirm what I was articulating.

That's what I see. Completely genuine. If you see something different, let me know.

At Wrangel Island, the wind is blowing away from the coast.. at the New Siberian Islands it's blowing toward the coast.
Perhaps you did not articulate properly. In Juans picture, however, the circle was in the ESS, and most of the ESS did not have any wind at all. Winds have this annoying tendency to change all the time, the situation in the the area is very confusing, with practically no wind in the ESS, strong southerlies in the Chuckhi and strong easterlies/norh-easterlies in the Laptev.

Looking at the next few days, a small cyclone seems about to settle on the New Siberian Islands, with strong offshore winds in the ESS and strong westerlies in much of the Laptev.

All in all this probably means that in two days some of the ice presently in the ESS and Laptev will have shifted a little bit, some of it will have melted and other bits will be more or less where they were to begin with.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 10:37:54 AM by Neven »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3343 on: July 06, 2019, 11:52:57 AM »
The ECMWF forecast hints (it’s been flip-flopping on this for days) on a WAA that will hit the Asian side at D+3 as the effect of the current Alaskan heat wave dies, peaking at D+5 and petering out a couple of days later, if it verifies (now repeated on three runs). Short event but hitting very vulnerable area. Continuous warmth over CAA too.

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3344 on: July 06, 2019, 12:13:13 PM »
And I think I did not exactly answer the question :s Same for upward Solar flux at TOA, with a good scale this time.

For the exact figures, average for latitudes from 70°N to 90°N is around 256 SIU, 259 SIU for 2007, 257 SIU for 2012 and 263 SIU for long term mean ( 1981 - 2010 ). Again, acknowledging the uncertainty in the radiative reanalysis, hoping I did not make a basic calc error, et cetera... But all in all, June 2019 was able to suck up a lot of Sun, especially at "low" latitudes -despite a snow cover slight more extensive than in 2012-, and this is of course no surprise, and is a good reason why near shore seas and Siberia are crazy warm.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 12:21:53 PM by aslan »

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3345 on: July 06, 2019, 12:21:47 PM »
On Zack Labe's monthly Arctic air temp. graph , June came in second behind 2005 .. that must have been a warm month !   The last 2 Julys lie 29th and 30th warmest in the satellite era .. I have little doubt this month will be warmer . b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3347 on: July 06, 2019, 01:26:16 PM »
The extent of meltponding/ low concentration in the cab is concerning, especially given the low overall thickness, it looks like the only part somewhat saved from the onslaught is an irregular band around the 80 north and some spots near the pole, not good. Also the ess fast ice looks like it will mostly be gone, apart from the most western part, within a week.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3348 on: July 06, 2019, 01:40:53 PM »
 I doubt the 80N band remains saved from the onslaught, perhaps enjoying a temporary relief, by the SMOS map is pretty clear

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3349 on: July 06, 2019, 02:31:19 PM »
A thick floe north of Svalbard, worldview aqua modis, jul6. https://go.nasa.gov/32adWNd