I’m going to go out on a limb, but all of those broken and fractured floes in the Beaufort have been swirling around for almost a month now with no noticeable decrease in size.
I was criticized for saying that the Beaufort does not appear to have become a kill zone because the ice is taking so long to melt.
Maybe that will change and those floes will go “poof.” But, if the fractured ice in the Beaufort holds on for a couple more weeks, it might be hard for this season to win on extent.
It will clearly be a terrible year for the ice. I have been saying that since May. However, the Beaufort currently holds the key. The export in the Atlantic seems likely to continue keeping numbers higher in that region. The lift off from the CAA is very troubling! We might have an ice island at the end of the melt season.
But if the Beaufort floes continue to stand pat, I’m not sure this year beats 2012 on extent.
If some strong storms move into the CAB in August I will rethink my position, but trying to be optimistic, I think the floes in the Beaufort are helping right now.
EDIT: I should add that Friv stated this a couple weeks ago when he said the ice was being “protected.” I gave him a hard time back then, but now I’m willing to eat my words and agree he was right.