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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3450 on: July 07, 2019, 12:40:13 PM »
something strange .. 07.07.2019 melting season posts .. 3450

                            .. 07.07.2015 melting season posts .. 1900 ...
   
  it looks like 2019 is the runaway winner at this stage of the season . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3451 on: July 07, 2019, 12:47:13 PM »
worldview aqua modis, mclure strait to lincoln sea, jul6 with noaa bathymetry. All the fractures are sheared. click to run. (3.5MB)
Very little compressive strength shown on hycom.
edit:Added bathymetry scale
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 12:53:14 PM by uniquorn »

ajouis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3452 on: July 07, 2019, 01:16:30 PM »
...
There is also a weird band just east of the pole if anyone knows what it is?
I agree with you're analysis -  the ice melt  looks mostly very bad for 2019.
The expression "East of the pole" tripped me up for a short while.
But the feature to the right of the pole on this chart?
I'm a mathematician not a sea-ice expert, but..
The  dark vertical lines maybe the effect of compression
of more rounded areas of  lower concentration by general
drift to the right toward  Svalbard?
i had an hunch that it was related to ridging, that would be in agreement with your analysis.
On the other hand, at this latitude "low concentration" on that map is more likely to be meltponding than anything else, so either there are areas that are starting to get lower concentration in the north pole, which is a very bad sign (maybe related to the fram export), or it is maybe related to some peculiarities of the terrain that create that particular shape of melponding, like an increased elevation  that has the water accumulating at the base of it (guess that could be a consequence of ridging too), although the scale seems quite big for something so regular.
I am kinda used to the west east paradigm, as I do a lot of things with maps, but I guess in this case south would be more correct

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3453 on: July 07, 2019, 01:48:33 PM »
Friv: The 00z EURO is brutal through D7.

Indeed Friv, indeed! This year we might call the high pressure domination in Arctic: "Ridiculously Resilient Arctic Ridge". Most people at the forum remember RRR that hovered west of US for a few years.

RRAR ?

The sound of the arctic melting....

SirLurkALot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3454 on: July 07, 2019, 01:54:45 PM »
...
There is also a weird band just east of the pole if anyone knows what it is?
I agree with you're analysis -  the ice melt  looks mostly very bad for 2019.
The expression "East of the pole" tripped me up for a short while.
But the feature to the right of the pole on this chart?
I'm a mathematician not a sea-ice expert, but..
The  dark vertical lines maybe the effect of compression
of more rounded areas of  lower concentration by general
drift to the right toward  Svalbard?
i had an hunch that it was related to ridging, that would be in agreement with your analysis.
On the other hand, at this latitude "low concentration" on that map is more likely to be meltponding than anything else, so either there are areas that are starting to get lower concentration in the north pole, which is a very bad sign (maybe related to the fram export), or it is maybe related to some peculiarities of the terrain that create that particular shape of melponding, like an increased elevation  that has the water accumulating at the base of it (guess that could be a consequence of ridging too), although the scale seems quite big for something so regular.
I am kinda used to the west east paradigm, as I do a lot of things with maps, but I guess in this case south would be more correct
Yes - could well be  melt-ponding, showing up as low concentration,  next to a ridge.
And you'll never be wrong if you say it's south of the pole -
of the North pole anyway.

bill kapra

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3455 on: July 07, 2019, 02:03:24 PM »
worldview aqua modis, mclure strait to lincoln sea, jul6 with noaa bathymetry. All the fractures are sheared. click to run. (3.5MB)
Very little compressive strength shown on hycom.
edit:Added bathymetry scale

Very interesting graphics!

This may be a dumb question but does it surprise you that the cracking is taking place uniformly along a line that also spans the inlets/channels? That strikes me as interesting because the topo indicates that these function as outflows (presumably due to snow melt). Does the fact that the ice is pulling away there imply that the ice in those passages is not being shifted forward by much and does this further imply that there’s really little residual terrestrial ice/snow on the islands to melt? Or is there enough flow below the surface that the ice does not get pushed outward by meltwater behind?
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 02:12:03 PM by bill kapra »

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3456 on: July 07, 2019, 02:13:58 PM »
I am certain of a new minimum.

Agreed, I am also certain that this will be a new minimum.

I've said it often and I'll say it again: Nothing in the Arctic is a dead certainty.

The point is that since 2012 there hasn't been a melting season that made it this far. Usually by now, we know whether there's a shot at breaking records or not. There still is, but it is far from certain. Yes, there are plenty of indications for massive melting momentum, but no one knows what the weather will do.

Mind you, this knife cuts both ways. But we just don't know. We'll know in a couple of weeks.

I guess we will know in 5 weeks or so and see whether the extent line follows the 2012 track or starting to drift towards the other years. 2012 was really unique at the start of August so I still think it will take some beating but if we get a stormy August then who knows. I still think the lack of divergence(holes) in the CAB could be somewhat a saviour of breaking records but an extent of under 4 million is possible.

The models keep hinting at a more low pressure type set up but it's proving a struggle to break down the ridge over the ESS. The only saving grace I can see is the lack of wind across the basin in general so in theory, there should not be holes developing within the pack but melt pounding looks quite high this year.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3457 on: July 07, 2019, 02:42:01 PM »
Why is Windy.com showing waves in the CAA where the satellites are telling us there is ice?

The waves are shown covering half the area from Baffin to the Arctic.

Are strong winds from Baffin bringing water with them?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3458 on: July 07, 2019, 02:55:04 PM »
worldview aqua modis, mclure strait to lincoln sea, jul6 with noaa bathymetry
Very interesting graphics!
Quite a few questions....
Quote
<>does it surprise you that the cracking is taking place uniformly along a line that also spans the inlets/channels?
It only looks uniform today .See https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg211357.html#msg211357 for an animation of this season
Quote
That strikes me as interesting because the topo indicates that these function as outflows (presumably due to snow melt)
Having seen the recent rammb animations I expect the flows are tidal. edit: but mostly south (thanks SH)
Quote
Does the fact that the ice is pulling away there imply that the ice in those passages is not being shifted forward by much
That is fast ice in the CAA passages, locked in place by land (for now). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast_ice
Quote
does this further imply that there’s really little residual terrestrial ice/snow on the islands to melt?
Not to me.
Quote
Or is there enough flow below the surface that the ice does not get pushed outward by meltwater behind?
I don't think there would be enough meltwater from land to cause what you describe.

The unusual thing about the caa/cab crack is it's length and it's longevity during this season due to a combination of thinner ice, wind direction and probable upwelling. There is some evidence of this in the 0m salinity ani link above.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 05:20:39 PM by uniquorn »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3459 on: July 07, 2019, 03:06:35 PM »

I think what is missing here is a discussion of the impact of increased solar irradiance.

We are discussing the current melt season. Increased solar output has absolutely no bearing on this.  The accumulation/retention of heat due to greenhouse gases is the main driver. If this topic is to be discussed at all, it should be in the science category.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3460 on: July 07, 2019, 03:10:54 PM »
Why is Windy.com showing waves in the CAA where the satellites are telling us there is ice?
The waves are shown covering half the area from Baffin to the Arctic.
Are strong winds from Baffin bringing water with them?
Would you show a Pic of this or better provide a link?

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3461 on: July 07, 2019, 03:11:23 PM »
...
I think what is missing here is a discussion of the impact of increased solar irradiance.
...

Are you talking about the reduced albedo, low cloud cover, something else?

Looking at only solar irradiance I believe we are at a solar minimum right now with a lower irradiance than in 2012 and most of the rest of this decade (even then that difference is tiny).

The low solar minimum that the earth is presently experiencing is not the key issue that I am talking about. Rather, the key issue is the amount of solar energy entering the system as a result of reduced albedo in the arctic. This difference far offsets the difference in energy coming from the sun due to the solar cycle.

OK...now feel better about your comment. The misuse of the term "solar irradiance" is what caused the confusion.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3462 on: July 07, 2019, 03:13:47 PM »
There is also a weird band just east of the pole if anyone knows what it is?

On this map, if a feature doesn't survive for multiple days, it's often not real. Conversely, sometimes a real feature is obscured by clouds on most days. In this case, I can't find any evidence on Worldview for a low concentration zone there, so it's probably a cloud artifact.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3463 on: July 07, 2019, 03:13:58 PM »
NSIDC says the area in the CAA has increased over the past few days: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg211320.html#msg211320

How can that be? It is hot and insolated, I only see melting.

melt ponds draining.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3464 on: July 07, 2019, 03:14:44 PM »
Why is Windy.com showing waves in the CAA where the satellites are telling us there is ice?
The waves are shown covering half the area from Baffin to the Arctic.
Are strong winds from Baffin bringing water with them?
Would you show a Pic of this or better provide a link?

Not sure how to do this from a cell phone. But anyone can go on Windy.com, scroll over to the CAA and select "Waves" as the feature to be displayed.

<edit Neven: Maybe the 'stupid' questions thread is more suited for this.>
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 04:15:28 PM by Neven »

ajouis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3465 on: July 07, 2019, 03:15:19 PM »
There is also a weird band just east of the pole if anyone knows what it is?

On this map, if a feature doesn't survive for multiple days, it's often not real. Conversely, sometimes a real feature is obscured by clouds on most days. In this case, I can't find any evidence on Worldview for a low concentration zone there, so it's probably a cloud artifact.
it s been there for at least 4 days, so it might be something

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3466 on: July 07, 2019, 03:17:12 PM »
Strong Beaufort dispersion, bad for the ice, as also seen in the OSI SAF ice drift map.

Here's a gif of that map for the last 2 weeks, for a longer term view. Beaufort blender is a persistent feature this year. Elsewhere, export to the Atlantic, which had been unusually high, has almost ceased recently, resulting in declines there in concentration and extent.

Click to animate.

http://osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php?year=2019&month=07&day=05&action=d%2B&prod=LR-Drift&area=NH&size=100%25

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3467 on: July 07, 2019, 03:21:43 PM »
The expression "East of the pole" tripped me up for a short while.
Trips me up all the time.
I keep on having to think ,
- If I cross the Bering Strait from Russia to Alaska then on the way in one step I move from 180 East to 180 West." and
- When a Russian says "Go East, Young Man" and an American says "Go West, Young Man" they point in the same direction.

Wind direction is the easiest to get wrong.

You could make a strong case for saying that this stretch of ice is south of the pole as the pole was used as the frame of reference.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3468 on: July 07, 2019, 03:25:28 PM »
I believe it has been posted earlier, somewhere else on the forum, but one of the main indicators of the september minimum seems to be the amount of posts on this thread.

In a day we will pass 2018 total posts (70 pages), with still some three months to go, before neven closes the thread.

I am certain of a new minimum.
Huh.. 2019 not even in the top three, can't even say "I coulda been a contender" (yet).

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=stats
Replies
2019 - 3,439        2015 - 4,869

Views
2019 - 317,842    2015 - 1,632,921
The more terrible and unexpected for the world will be the harsh reality.
Tomorrow's National Enquirer front page

The End of the World is Nigh

Record Postings on ASIF  2019 melting Season Thread !!!

Emergency Meeting of UN Security Council Today !!!



You know perfectly well that even if in September 2019 the area of ice in the Arctic drops to 2-2.5 million kilometers, the public will not worry much about it.

People love summer more than winter. This is the simplest psychology.

Awareness will come only when the planet begins to really burn in the fire. But then something will be impossible to change. The only thing that world leaders will do in this situation - use of radical methods. The poisoning of the atmosphere with sulfurous aerosols and powerful nuclear explosions for rapid cooling.

But such actions will kill the remnants of the biosphere and give only a temporary effect.

gone off the rails guys...as far off topic as we can get...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3469 on: July 07, 2019, 03:28:55 PM »
worldview aqua modis, mclure strait to lincoln sea, jul6 with noaa bathymetry. All the fractures are sheared. click to run. (3.5MB)
Very little compressive strength shown on hycom.
edit:Added bathymetry scale

Very interesting graphics!

This may be a dumb question but does it surprise you that the cracking is taking place uniformly along a line that also spans the inlets/channels? That strikes me as interesting because the topo indicates that these function as outflows (presumably due to snow melt). Does the fact that the ice is pulling away there imply that the ice in those passages is not being shifted forward by much and does this further imply that there’s really little residual terrestrial ice/snow on the islands to melt? Or is there enough flow below the surface that the ice does not get pushed outward by meltwater behind?

The currents through the CAA run south.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3470 on: July 07, 2019, 03:34:31 PM »
gone off the rails guys...as far off topic as we can get...
Not even close...

And what's your opinion on #summertrainees' ability to predict showers? I say it's worse than the regular's. The forecasts in summer should be limited to 12 hours. At least it looks like it just now.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3471 on: July 07, 2019, 03:38:58 PM »
Why is Windy.com showing waves in the CAA where the satellites are telling us there is ice?
The waves are shown covering half the area from Baffin to the Arctic.
Are strong winds from Baffin bringing water with them?
Would you show a Pic of this or better provide a link?

Not sure how to do this from a cell phone. But anyone can go on Windy.com, scroll over to the CAA and select "Waves" as the feature to be displayed.
Usually they place a mask over ice-covered zones.
But it’s true they’re showing part of the main passage open.
I’d say it’s a glitch, it is covered and pretty calm (except for the slow tides)

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3472 on: July 07, 2019, 03:39:50 PM »
it s been there for at least 4 days, so it might be something

I see what you mean -- but faint and small until today. Hard to find a cloudless day to verify it on Worldview. The snow in that region does seem to have just melted out within the last few days, so maybe it is something. It will be interesting to see if it persists.

https://go.nasa.gov/2Xxjlu2

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3473 on: July 07, 2019, 03:43:59 PM »
The CAA is doing what it does this time of year, only in spades this year.

Area measured is going up by leaps and bounds (graph attached).
And not just NSIDC data - see gif on the CAA from Univ Bremen high-res(?) images Jun 30 & Jul 6 (that also show there is little or no ice movement in the channels of the CAA).

But the CAA has been warm, very warm, the snow has been melting big time, see snow gif Jun 30 to Jul 6 showing snow disappearing from most of the CAA islands..

Surely it can only be melt ponds forming en mass and then draining en mass ?

EDIT - gifs increased to 701 pixel size so may play properly. Require click to start
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 03:57:57 PM by gerontocrat »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3474 on: July 07, 2019, 03:58:58 PM »
Surely it can only be melt ponds forming en mass and then draining en mass ?

Yes. There was also some discussion of this recently from looking at Worldview images that were suddenly turning white.

https://go.nasa.gov/32a72aK
(Click the play button after opening.)

bill kapra

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3475 on: July 07, 2019, 04:13:42 PM »
Thx Uniquorn and Shared Humanity!

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3476 on: July 07, 2019, 04:44:20 PM »
Scanning several locations of the CAA in Worldview, I can see the snow fast disappearing on the islands in the past two weeks, and the ice turning from very blue to slightly blue to breaking up. So it seems melt pond drainage and a thinness threshold reached.
Here's a view of the south entrance to the main channel. Click.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3477 on: July 07, 2019, 05:07:47 PM »
ok to celebrate that tomorrow I'm back to work after a week of relax, and that I have ftp'd many UH AMSR2 png into my HDD, I post two sims, first the 1-week Jun 29 -> Jul 6 gradual two-frame gif, focused on the pacific side to illustrate the incredible damage in the Chukchi edge, and ESS too.
Probably I wont be able to honor this commitment during the week, to be continued.

Also I put together all pngs from June 1st to July 6th in a single loosy gif, with some imagination one can recreate all the action that has happened in this powerful time while staring at the gif.

kevpluck

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3478 on: July 07, 2019, 05:15:25 PM »
The above "red line" charts don't make sense to me, or I'm missing something.

If you go to NSIDC concentration, they show Hudson to be almost ice free for this date in 2012, with a few lonely chunks.

The spatial comparison tool for extent shows the same thing.

Something is off here.


This is what I get when I run the NSIDC comparison tool.  Same as you are describing.  It looks like he either messed up on the Hudson, or he is using a different data set.

Hi, the source for the two images are from the NSIDC's MASIE dataset which are the following:
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/png/4km/2019/masie_all_r00_v01_2019186_4km.png
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/png/4km/2012/masie_all_r00_v01_2012186_4km.png

Looks like MASIE has a different threshold for ice concentration, attached is the sea ice on the 7th (closest non cloudy day). Which does seem to not bear much resemblance to MASIE.

By the 15th though the datasets do agree once more.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 06:08:49 PM by kevpluck »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3479 on: July 07, 2019, 05:28:59 PM »
Here's a comparison between NASA Worldview, NSIDC sea ice conc, and MASIE for 7/7/2012 showing the different thresholds for each dataset.

kevpluck

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3480 on: July 07, 2019, 05:42:16 PM »
Which does seem to not bear much resemblance to MASIE.

Seems I got my days mixed up. On 7/7/2012 the MASIE and NASA WV do resemble each other.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3481 on: July 07, 2019, 05:50:08 PM »
The warming up of the water in the Chukchi Sea purely increases:







In August, the strongest cyclone may arise here.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3482 on: July 07, 2019, 06:08:09 PM »
......but after this year I think almost all of the multiyear ice will be gone.


just a thought/question:

if all the MYI is gone and if we agree that certainly all the First-Year-Ice will be gone (<95%) that would mean we would end up with zero ice if i'm not totally mistaken, hence i don't think that all the MYI will go for good but that the little that will remain will be 95% MYI and all the rest gone for good.

BTW i slowly get a feeling that we could be in for very nasty surprise in about 40-50 days from now, shadowing the worst expectations based on the past 2-3 years when we dodged it.

it has been said and remains, weather is key, but it will come the day  when we shall be watching in awe at nothing (no ice) despite relatively cold weather at the end of august/early september, simply because the ever thinner ice will soon simply melt away just because it started 1m thinner than 5-10 years ago.

I agree. What we end up with and where, is almost all due to winds and currents, rather than old thick ice. It looks like the reason that the ice even gets old, is because it was piled up, allowing it to survive the next summer.

At least, that is  how it is now. I think in the past some ice survived through the summer to increase thickness the next winter, but after this year I think almost all of the multiyear ice will be gone.

Also, the final pattern that we end up with doesn't have that much to do with melt patterns per se, but winds. For example, if you look at 2012 around the end of June, the area between the pole and Greenland was looking pretty ragged, and yet that's exactly where the thickest ice ended up at the minimum.

If you look at all the minimums, the thickest ice ends up on the Canadian/Greenland side, usually in the notch at Nares Strait, or if not there, further west along the CAA.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 06:46:19 PM by magnamentis »

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3483 on: July 07, 2019, 06:09:07 PM »
MASIE is a manual analysis of ice edge, and so is very accurate but not really consistent. Usually, it is good to avoid MASIE for climatological purpose, like comparing two different days.

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_faq

For Chukchi sea (and Beaufort, and Bering), heat is even building up to great depth, up to 100 meters. The sheer mass of accumulated heat is astonishing this year. It will not have a direct impact on the melting season, but long lasting consequences are likely. And this is not going to end, as the region is still pounded by warmth and Sun.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3484 on: July 07, 2019, 06:12:39 PM »
NSIDC says the area in the CAA has increased over the past few days: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg211320.html#msg211320

How can that be? It is hot and insolated, I only see melting.

it's compaction, drifts, winds and currents push the ice floes closer together, hence less extent and growing area, simply put.

this thread and the forum are full of discussions and explanations for your questions, especially @neven is posting regularly on the matter.

search for compaction and you shall find your answers.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3485 on: July 07, 2019, 06:27:42 PM »
The only thing that could hold 2019 is the lack of compacting winds expecially in the dipole anomaly.

However even tho it's not the Pretty setup the Arctic is getting a ton of solar insolation all over.

If piomas doesn't pick up on the CAB getting blasted we know cryosat will
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

kevpluck

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3486 on: July 07, 2019, 06:28:34 PM »
MASIE is a manual analysis of ice edge, and so is very accurate but not really consistent. Usually, it is good to avoid MASIE for climatological purpose, like comparing two different days.

Cheers! Good to know.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3487 on: July 07, 2019, 06:39:16 PM »
NSIDC says the area in the CAA has increased over the past few days: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg211320.html#msg211320

How can that be? It is hot and insolated, I only see melting.

melt ponds draining.

yep, forgot to add this as another major factor, thanks

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3488 on: July 07, 2019, 06:44:34 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Combined #seaice extent in the Chukchi & Beaufort Seas continues to track at record low levels in @NSIDC data, just below 2017. The expected weather pattern the upcoming week favors continued ice melt and warming water south of the ice edge. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe


Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3489 on: July 07, 2019, 06:56:32 PM »
just a thought/question:

if all the MYI is gone and if we agree that certainly all the First-Year-Ice will be gone (<95%) that would mean we would end up with zero ice if i'm not totally mistaken, hence i don't think that all the MYI will go for good but that the littel that will remain will be 95% MYI and all the rest gone for good.

I think that there is a bit of a "gotcha" in the terminology. As long as there is ice at the end of the melting season, there will always be MYI because whatever is left becomes MYI the next year. Personally, I only think of ice 3+ years as MYI, but that's just me. So, a BOE will signal the end of MYI, but not before. (with the usual caveats about the 1M sq. km threshold)

Quote
BTW i slowly get a feeling that we could be in for very nasty surprise in about 40-50 days from now, shadowing the worst expectations based on the past 2-3 years when we dodged it.

it has been said and remains, weather is key, but it will come the day  when we shall be watching in awe at nothing (no ice) despite relatively cold weather at the end of august/early september, simply because the ever thinner ice will soon simply melt away just because it started 1m thinner than 5-10 years ago.


I think someone called this a "poof" and I agree, it will happen, just like concentration thresholds make ice "disappear".

I don't think we give enough weight to the most recent years. We focus on area or extent, which is natural, because it is just so visual. But, to me, it can be a red herring. In many terms, 2017 was a much more significant year than 2016 and yet it was ignored as an also-ran.

And then of course, there is the uncertainty of the measurements, particularly PIOMAS. I joke that we are going to end up with volume but no area, or area without volume. :)

 

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3490 on: July 07, 2019, 07:05:22 PM »
2011 had amazing volume loss in the cab but it's never talked about.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3491 on: July 07, 2019, 07:09:31 PM »
..........Personally, I only think of ice 3+ years as MYI, but that's just me.
gotcha [JK] LOL

that's obviously the point, everything >1 is more than 1 = multi, but i understand now and that's all that counts.

« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 07:15:32 PM by magnamentis »

dollarbillronson

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3492 on: July 07, 2019, 07:12:27 PM »


Why is not one of the members here impressed by the obviously extreme downwards trend in this graph? From all the past years its obvious that there usually are no sudden upwards spikes in this data and if we are to continue the lines hypothetically into the future the result would show a massive massive loss as per this marker

Thoughts?

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3493 on: July 07, 2019, 07:16:45 PM »
Why is not one of the members here impressed by the obviously extreme downwards trend in this graph?

Everyone is impressed all right, but 2012 also had an impressive drop in the first week of August. And so we wait and watch.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3494 on: July 07, 2019, 07:19:24 PM »

Why is not one of the members here impressed by the obviously extreme downwards trend in this graph? From all the past years its obvious that there usually are no sudden upwards spikes in this data and if we are to continue the lines hypothetically into the future the result would show a massive massive loss as per this marker

Thoughts?

read back and you shall see that many are impressed while one cannot always mention each map or graph to not exclude something or someones work.

there are plenty of sources that makes many of us watch in awe, don't worry, this is just one of many others that deserve attention and since @oren did that already all is good.

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3495 on: July 07, 2019, 07:21:22 PM »
Why is not one of the members here impressed by the obviously extreme downwards trend in this graph? From all the past years its obvious that there usually are no sudden upwards spikes in this data and if we are to continue the lines hypothetically into the future the result would show a massive massive loss as per this marker

Thoughts?

If I may, I think you are asking why no one is expressing it.

I certainly can't speak for anyone else, but for me, I can only say "wow!" so many times.

IMHO, the ice is toast and has been for quite some time, so for me to be impressed, I would have to see a major and sustained uptick.

Cheers

etienne

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3496 on: July 07, 2019, 07:42:32 PM »
Worried would be a better word than impressed. The trend is clear, it's not a surprise, but the question is always if we have passed some kind of tipping point ore milestone like they said in a company I worked for a few years ago.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3497 on: July 07, 2019, 07:53:19 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Chukchi Sea ice extent fell below 50% of the basin July 06, the earliest in @NSIDC record. This exposes a lot of water to solar heating while solar angle is still high. Prior to late 1990s about half summers ice extent never got so low. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @seaice_de


Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3498 on: July 07, 2019, 08:25:52 PM »
By the way: Welcome Mrgreeny. And, "Hi."
Your profile says you're time zone is not in Ireland.  Aw shucks!  :(  Hmmm, your handle must reflect your politics - but not on this thread.  :o
Agreed, I am also certain that this will be a new minimum.

I have been lurking this forum for a while and have been reading over a lot of topics, lots of interesting stuff to read. I would like to say hi.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Oscillidous

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3499 on: July 07, 2019, 08:27:27 PM »
Worried would be a better word than impressed. The trend is clear, it's not a surprise, but the question is always if we have passed some kind of tipping point ore milestone like they said in a company I worked for a few years ago.

Wouldn't the fact that each melt season has resulted in less MYI than the year/s before be an indication that we have passed a tipping point? Please don't take my question wrong, I am genuinely asking.

Also, I am curious if all this weak ice won't take a tumble (echoing what others have said) later this season because it looks to me like the ice is overall weaker than it's ever been.
When the ice moves it cuts deep grooves
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