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Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 1160877 times)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3500 on: July 07, 2019, 08:52:47 PM »
Why is not one of the members here impressed by the obviously extreme downwards trend

Because, when you watch the ice for weeks and month, this doesn't come as a surprise to you.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3501 on: July 07, 2019, 09:03:43 PM »
The 12z euro breaks the ridge down and has a slightly cool cyclone over the Pacific side.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3502 on: July 07, 2019, 09:09:46 PM »
interesting stuff to read. I would like to say hi.

Hi! :)

Also Hi to Dollarbillronson and Oscillidous.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3503 on: July 07, 2019, 09:12:11 PM »

Why is not one of the members here impressed by the obviously extreme downwards trend in this graph? From all the past years its obvious that there usually are no sudden upwards spikes in this data and if we are to continue the lines hypothetically into the future the result would show a massive massive loss as per this marker

Thoughts?

We all know that eventually we are going to lose Arctic Ice - it seems now inevitable , but noone knows exactly when. Besides, many have written  upthread about the state of the ice (including many fantastic graphs, animations, etc) this year (from which anyoone could draw the conclusions) and that 2019 is very likely a silver/bronze medalist and a gold is also possible. That is all we can say at this time.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3504 on: July 07, 2019, 10:22:00 PM »
The 12z euro breaks the ridge down and has a slightly cool cyclone over the Pacific side.

I believe it happens more often that the 00Z looks bad, and then the 12Z looks better. At least, that's how it has been for the past couple of days.
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3505 on: July 07, 2019, 10:49:27 PM »
Is it just me or has the entire Northern Sea Route been reduced to "slush puppie" ice that doesn't require a heavy duty icebreaker to get through?

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3506 on: July 07, 2019, 11:26:31 PM »
The 12z euro breaks the ridge down and has a slightly cool cyclone over the Pacific side.

That looks like a strong tropospheric vortex trying to come together. With these low pressure systems sitting right on the jet stream today over Russia, Pacific, and South of Greenland, with some jet stream constrained already, that could actually be not very good.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3507 on: July 07, 2019, 11:53:43 PM »
Is it just me or has the entire Northern Sea Route been reduced to "slush puppie" ice that doesn't require a heavy duty icebreaker to get through?
Have you been reading the papers? Note that the new Russian LNG tanker fleet can plough  through up to 2 metres of ice and cruise through semi-open water.

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/lng-tanker-makes-first-summer-voyage-along-northern-sea-route
LNG Tanker Makes First Summer Voyage along Northern Sea Route
Quote
The summer season has begun along the Northern Sea Route with a first transit by an LNG tanker carrying Yamal LNG to Asia without the need for icebreaker escort.

The Arc7 Vladimir Rusanov left the Sabetta port on June 29, one of 126 tanker shipments made this year from the project which has produced 9.0 million tons of LNG and 0.6 million tons of stable gas condensate so far this year.
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3508 on: July 08, 2019, 02:59:13 AM »
I find these two images remarkable.  This is an example where a picture (or two) says a thousand words.  The Pacific side is on fire right now 🔥


Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3510 on: July 08, 2019, 03:28:45 AM »
Most of the southern ESS, from the coast to about 200 - 300km towards the pole, is now a mass of loose floes, in some places with significant open water.   And then a close-up.   Top image unaltered, bottom pushed for contrast on Photoshop.  It seems to be happening scarily fast.

Off (and off-line) to the mountains for a few weeks... back in Sept.  May the ice be with us...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3511 on: July 08, 2019, 04:04:52 AM »
Alaska's worst day yet for fires (IMO). Massive plumes all over. Also in Siberia.


Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3512 on: July 08, 2019, 04:25:38 AM »
Record high temperatures are driving those fires, and causing the record ice melt. 

ShortBrutishNasty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3513 on: July 08, 2019, 05:10:37 AM »


The temperature in Anchorage, Alaska, soared to 90 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday, shattering the city's all-time record-high temperature by 5 degrees. The previous record of 85 degrees Fahrenheit was set in 1969. It also shattered the daily record of 77 degrees for the Fouth of July, which had stood since 1999.7 hours ago
90-degree heat stifles Anchorage for first time in its history as sweltering heat wave grips Alaska - AccuWeather

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3514 on: July 08, 2019, 05:33:10 AM »
Just for comparison

Oscillidous

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3515 on: July 08, 2019, 05:48:42 AM »
Could any of this anomalous warming in the ESS and Alaska be from localized methane emissions? How soon does methane contribute warming once released?

<Edit Neven: Ask questions like this one in the 'stupid' questions thread, or the methane thread.>
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 07:23:12 AM by Neven »
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3516 on: July 08, 2019, 06:40:24 AM »
I for one am impressed / depressed. Otoh, there have been (somewhat less) impressive setups in several recent years that were nonetheless rescued by favorable weather, at least in terms of extent, so ... But regardless of what happens in the next few weeks, it will be fascinating. It seems that either sun or conversely storms (my personal favorite) may each be enough, and perhaps the only hope now for ice preservation is cool, cloudy, calm weather. Watching...

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3517 on: July 08, 2019, 07:15:10 AM »
More greying ice in the ESS

I copied the cloud free area in the square in gimp, resized the image to one pixel, then looked at the level, which is 107.

In 8 bit graphics mid-grey is 127 or 128 (0 is black and white 255), so this ice is closer to black than white.

Naively dividing 107 by 255 to get a value in the range from 0 to 1, that comes out to an 'albedo' around 0.42 That ice is pretty good at collecting light energy, Given the ice darkens as it deteriorates, it's going to accelerate the final meltout of that and similar areas.

The pack is nowhere as grey as this coastal stuff, a, but its visible greying after melt onset gives an extra kick to insolation potential(moreso in bad years), and there is a long stretch of seas off the Russian coast that can collect continental dust etc

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3518 on: July 08, 2019, 07:18:34 AM »
The last 16 days of an unholy CAB to Beaufort sea ice pilgrimage. Those Beaufort waters are too toasty for even the thicker floes to make it through the season. Perhaps the best we can hope for is winds to blow and ice to drift in the opposite direction than they've been consistently going.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 07:45:42 AM by Ice Shieldz »

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3519 on: July 08, 2019, 08:59:49 AM »
Inspired by Ice Shieldz I decided to try and track some some of larger ice floes in the Beaufort starting June 1st. Two floes are marked with a red dot as far as I was able to track them (which was most of the days).

Notice that both floes have large neighbours that disappear. Neither floe moves particularly far in the 36 days, and both floes have basically broken up at the end of the run, one of them not being trackable at all, the other still having a fairly larg piece that I presume could be tracked for a few more days.
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3520 on: July 08, 2019, 09:02:43 AM »
Nice effort, Binntho, but 12 MB for an animation is a bit much.  ???

This Forum is looking more and more like Bitcoin, taking up ever more bandwidth. But maybe I'm just being the 'Energy Gestapo', like my wife always says when I tell her to turn off the lights.  ;D
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3521 on: July 08, 2019, 09:15:22 AM »
Again, the ECMWF 00Z forecast looks slightly worse than the previous 12Z, IMO.

Of course, it doesn't come close to the horrible weather of June, but it's not exactly the kind of weather that will stop the 2019 melting season in its tracks, either. Never mind the fact that it's probably similar to stopping a container ship after it has built up some speed (ie melting momentum).
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3522 on: July 08, 2019, 09:19:43 AM »
The last 16 days of an unholy CAB to Beaufort sea ice pilgrimage. Those Beaufort waters are too toasty for even the thicker floes to make it through the season. Perhaps the best we can hope for is winds to blow and ice to drift in the opposite direction than they've been consistently going.
The upshot is, the MYI in the Beaufort isn't so much surviving as it is a conveyor moving ice from the CAB to its demise in the heated water near the coast.
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3523 on: July 08, 2019, 09:30:38 AM »
Again, the ECMWF 00Z forecast looks slightly worse than the previous 12Z, IMO.

Of course, it doesn't come close to the horrible weather of June, but it's not exactly the kind of weather that will stop the 2019 melting season in its tracks, either. Never mind the fact that it's probably similar to stopping a container ship after it has built up some speed (ie melting momentum).

Yes, storm is not good for ice.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3524 on: July 08, 2019, 09:40:54 AM »
Energy Gestapo

Everyone should be Energy Gestapo!! \o/

(BTW most bitcoin hashes are calculated on hydropower)

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3525 on: July 08, 2019, 09:58:05 AM »
Nice effort, Binntho, but 12 MB for an animation is a bit much.  ???

This Forum is looking more and more like Bitcoin, taking up ever more bandwidth. But maybe I'm just being the 'Energy Gestapo', like my wife always says when I tell her to turn off the lights.  ;D

Or the Mandwidth Stasi? My problem is that being a digital nomad I'm used to working all over (mostly) Europe, and 12Mb is really nothing in my view (and I made sure that the gif needs a click to run). I'm currently working on setting up operation in Ethiopia, and there you have a country where 12Mb is something to think twice about (or not at all, since they periodically shut down the whole Internet for days at a time).

Personally I think that the animiation shows things that are important and interesting. I can't be bothered to make it smaller, but I'd have loved to have made it 10 times bigger. Information gets lost if we have to tie ourselves down to a few paltry low-res frames. In my opinion, as an unreformed bandwidth bandido!
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3526 on: July 08, 2019, 10:20:40 AM »
Thank you binntho. I was trying to track floes manually in the ice shieldz animation and failed.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3527 on: July 08, 2019, 10:22:03 AM »
Information gets lost if we have to tie ourselves down to a few paltry low-res frames

If you use https://ezgif.com/optimize (default setting) you'll get an equally detailed image quality with dramatically reduced file size.

When you reduce the file size once using this tool, forum users and forum server save bandwidth thousands of times. It is indeed a thing to consider.

PS: Great tracking animation nonetheless, thanks for that!

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3528 on: July 08, 2019, 10:28:45 AM »
Binntho .. far better your way .. click and play .. Neven should be pleased .. and may your adventures in Africa not stop your contributions here .
  I picked a large floe on the 1st May .. it's long gone .. there is no big block like in 2016 . Only 2 months of melt left . Lets hope there's something left to melt in September . b.c.

ps b-l .. your ezgif option seems to part load every time it is passed by .. does it ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3529 on: July 08, 2019, 11:46:20 AM »
ps b-l .. your ezgif option seems to part load every time it is passed by .. does it ?

There is a 'resize' option to make it click to play if it isn't already.

And there is a 'optimize' option which is reducing the file size.

Do you think even very small (~1mb) files should be click to play?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3530 on: July 08, 2019, 12:35:51 PM »
The 06z GFS backs off on the vortex a bit as well.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3531 on: July 08, 2019, 12:56:24 PM »
Inspired by Ice Shieldz I decided to try and track some some of larger ice floes in the Beaufort starting June 1st. Two floes are marked with a red dot as far as I was able to track them (which was most of the days).

Notice that both floes have large neighbours that disappear. Neither floe moves particularly far in the 36 days, and both floes have basically broken up at the end of the run, one of them not being trackable at all, the other still having a fairly larg piece that I presume could be tracked for a few more days.

Ice crusher...

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3532 on: July 08, 2019, 01:43:15 PM »
...
I think what is missing here is a discussion of the impact of increased solar irradiance.
...

Are you talking about the reduced albedo, low cloud cover, something else?

Looking at only solar irradiance I believe we are at a solar minimum right now with a lower irradiance than in 2012 and most of the rest of this decade (even then that difference is tiny).

The low solar minimum that the earth is presently experiencing is not the key issue that I am talking about. Rather, the key issue is the amount of solar energy entering the system as a result of reduced albedo in the arctic. This difference far offsets the difference in energy coming from the sun due to the solar cycle.

I broadly agree, I have also the feeling that incoming solar radiation is probably a bit an understate factor. It is of course a know fact, and a spoken one, that lower albedo implies a greater heat accumulation. But perhaps that the big train of heat ready to ram us is not fully acknowledge. By the way this is why I'm back here, at ASIF. I'm like a vulture, when I smell the good fragrance of a water bath I am here.

So to continue this discussion, I will try something (each word of this sentence is important XD ). NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis is easier to manipulate and is update with a lag of a few days only. So I already us it, but radiations data are not as good as other dataset. Good enough to say something about big trend and to beat some dead horses, but probably not good enough for details -like the exact magnitude of the June 2019 crash-. MERRA is probably better but will not be available until mid or late July for the month of June. As already state, solar heat input in June above 70°N is a big factor : https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025819
With MERRA data up to June 2018 I am going to back up this claim and give some order of magnitude, and with reanalysis up to June 2019 I am going to show that this year things are worst than worse. I will update the analysis when June 2019 data from MERRA will be available in late July -when nobody will no longer care as sea ice extent will be many thousands squared kilometers below 2012 and the crash will be beyond obvious XD -. Perhaps MERRA datas are going to show a little miracle, against the reanalysis, but is not really likely.

I am going to use two different flux. With MERRA, I am using net downward flux at surface (SWGNT for short). State an other way, it is the solar input wich is really accumulating at surface. The part of the Sun wich is not absorbed can be reflected by atmosphere and surface, wich is going back to space as a outgoing shortwave radiation (RSR for Reflected Sun Radiation). And Sun can also be absorbed by atmosphere. I stick with SWGNT cause looking at RSR implies giving weight to heat absorbed by atmoshere, but I don't think this part of the flux is really important. Its variations year over year are not as important, and heat absorbed by atmosphere is probably going to be mixed all over the hemisphere in a few days (as a side note, aerosols and soots -also known as black C- implies that Sun is more easily captured by the atmosphere, wich also have implications for global warming. But, looking only at sea ice year over year, the Sun captured by the atmosphere is not looking like a big factor). So, with MERRA dataset, is is going to be SWGNT. But Reanalysis as not an easy dataset for this flux. I could be possible to mix surface albedo with the downward shortwave flux at surface, but it is starting to look a bit too shaky, given the accuracy of reanalysis. So, with this lad, I am sticking with shortwave outgoing flux at TOA (RSR in the state paper above). Of course, the higher the heat absorbed by the surface, the lesser the heat making an escape to space. As a consequences, many graphs are going to have a left hand y axis, and a reversed right hand y axis. So far, the brains already hurts XD

The first graph is September SIE and SWGNT. The latter is reversed, meaning that the more the Sun is absorbed at surface in June, the less ice survived in September. Correlation is looking quite good, so let's check this.

The two datasets are quite correlated, with a decrease of the September SIE of 1 million square kilometers if absorbed radiation increase by 7 or 8 W/m². It should be note also that extrapolating the trend brings plausible results, with a zero SIE if June heat input is up to around 150 W/m². Definitively in the realm of possibilities.

So now that we have checked we are able to replicate the results of the above study, and that sea ice is screwed if Arctic is pounded by Sun in June, let's look at what the reanalysis is saying about June 2019. Was it bad, or worse than worst ? Short answer, acording to reanalysis June 2019 is abysmal. Values from reanalysis for outgoing solar flux at TOA are correlated with values from MERRA for solar input at surface. Correlation is not so bad (R² 0.45), but 2019 is not a record low point (caramba ^^). This said, it is looking like reanalysis is not going down enough. What I'm going to do is to artificially increase the trend for USWRF. Not for the pleasure of making things looking worst, but because, without MERRA data for June yet, we can only guess what happened. And an educated guess will be that reanalysis is to shy (not a surprise here...). Correlation is improved (R² 0.55) and 2019 is to the basement. Again, this is not intended to manipulate data to prove that June 2019 is a nightmare, but it is really because it is quite probable that reanalysis is not going down enough. Correlation with September SIE is also vastly improved (R² up to 0.43, from 0.20 with bulk values). Again, it is not a surprise that adding a trend to a datset to compare it with a dataset -SIE- where the trend is overwhelming everything vastly improves the correlation -if the slope of a dataset is way higher than its variability, we can correlated it with about any dataset having also a big slope-. But I do think this as a physical meaning.

I let you also the values for SWGNT in June in W/m², and with a conversion to "how many meters of ice could be melt by such and heat input ?" to give a sense of the energy in play.

   SWGNT      Thickness elt
1980   107   0.90
1981   109   0.92
1982   103   0.87
1983   103   0.87
1984   108   0.92
1985   113   0.96
1986   99   0.84
1987   108   0.91
1988   109   0.92
1989   99   0.84
1990   117   1.00
1991   111   0.94
1992   102   0.87
1993   116   0.99
1994   108   0.92
1995   109   0.93
1996   100   0.85
1997   109   0.92
1998   114   0.97
1999   102   0.87
2000   112   0.95
2001   114   0.97
2002   112   0.95
2003   108   0.92
2004   107   0.91
2005   113   0.96
2006   107   0.90
2007   118   1.00
2008   117   0.99
2009   111   0.94
2010   115   0.97
2011   117   0.99
2012   118   1.00
2013   109   0.92
2014   112   0.95
2015   113   0.96
2016   113   0.96
2017   116   0.99
2018   108   0.91



So, if I am not fooling myself, if I did not make any basic calc errors, etc... June 2019 has sucked up a lot of Sun, and probably is the leading horse in this race. Put in another way : die sea ice, die ! And see you again when MERRA will update.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 02:16:56 PM by aslan »

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3533 on: July 08, 2019, 02:13:50 PM »
A big P.S. also to my post, beyond the fact that June 2019 was abysmal, I wanted to show also, even though it was not explicitly state, that Sun input is increasing bigly in Arctic, with an increase of 1 W/m² in June every four years. It could perhaps have been better to wait MERRA, but the topic was brought again in this discussion so go. But even more importantly, no matter if 2019 is at record or not, we are witnessing the effect of increase Sun input, with Chukchi, Beaufort and Bering running like bats out of hell after records. Of course, it is a progressive state change, but I fear we are nearer and nearer to the point that Bering sea will be perennially open, and even Chucki sea looks to be already in bad state for a good refreeze this winter. If ocean is warm enough, I think that it could supply enough moisture to create a positive feedback with longwave radiation. The warmer, the moister, the moister, the less heat can escape to space. And the warmer, the longer it takes to cool down, and if heat is not able to radiate back to space, it will take even longer. And if a melt season can give hand to the next like it was almost the case last three years, Sun input in summer is going to go trough the roof, etc... Up to now, Arctic was more or less able to erase its memory of the latest melt season during winter, but when I see the SSTs going trough the roof and Arctic pounded by relentless warmth and sun, and the last 3 years, I fear we are reaching the point where it is no longer the case.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 02:20:02 PM by aslan »

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3534 on: July 08, 2019, 03:42:27 PM »
In the meantime...Slater's model is pretty much unchanged the past few days.

Expected extent on Aug 27,2019: 4,31 M sq km

NSIDC extent on the same day of

2012: 3,94
2016: 4,77
2007: 4,83
2017: 5,00

Based on this, unless something extreme happens In July/Aug (superheat and or a big cyclone), it still looks like 2nd place for 2019.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3535 on: July 08, 2019, 03:48:06 PM »
I hope that the two overhangs of multi-year ice in the Pacific sector should stop melting and 2019 will not beat 2012.





This multi-year ice should stop a possible disaster.

Pavel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3536 on: July 08, 2019, 03:58:02 PM »
The Laptev bite can hit the Pole this year, and the MYI on the Pacific side is not very thick according to PIOMAS. There Will be also the ESS bite, the Chuckchi bite and the Beaufort bite hitting the CAB.

Slim

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3537 on: July 08, 2019, 05:05:12 PM »
In the meantime...Slater's model is pretty much unchanged the past few days.

Expected extent on Aug 27,2019: 4,31 M sq km

NSIDC extent on the same day of

2012: 3,94
2016: 4,77
2007: 4,83
2017: 5,00

Based on this, unless something extreme happens In July/Aug (superheat and or a big cyclone), it still looks like 2nd place for 2019.

This blows my mind that after everything that has gone on this year as well as being 7 years of warming into the future vs 2012. Seems 2012 was an absolutely exceptional event.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3538 on: July 08, 2019, 05:20:03 PM »
I hope that the two overhangs of multi-year ice in the Pacific sector should stop melting and 2019 will not beat 2012.

This multi-year ice should stop a possible disaster.
The overhang that was in the Beaufort is right now melting or about to melt somewhere in the Chukchi sector or with luck reached the ESS. I would consider it defunct. Although it is true more MYI came to replenish Beaufort from West CAB.
Consider it defunct too
The other thin thing, will give resistance in September to whatever survives till then in ESS CAB

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3539 on: July 08, 2019, 05:32:32 PM »
The northern tip of Greenland (on the right)

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3540 on: July 08, 2019, 05:33:25 PM »
This blows my mind that after everything that has gone on this year as well as being 7 years of warming into the future vs 2012. Seems 2012 was an absolutely exceptional event.

Only if you focus on extent and not volume.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3541 on: July 08, 2019, 05:48:57 PM »
The northern tip of Greenland (on the right)

Nicely visible on arctic.io from yesterday to today...
"Normally" this kind of Lift- off occurs in about late August/ early September.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3542 on: July 08, 2019, 07:04:54 PM »
Climate activists in Cologne.

No, not off topic. They are literally standing on 2019 melting ice!


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3543 on: July 08, 2019, 07:56:37 PM »
The northern tip of Greenland (on the right)

That is some spooky shit.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3544 on: July 08, 2019, 08:20:20 PM »
Where Piomas showed 2m thick ice on the Siberian shore a week ago (@ 160E ) , today there is fast melting remnants looking thinner than the ice under the climate protesters .. I hope Piomas has not been so badly fooled everywhere .
  I am pleased at least to see the cracks N. of Greenland .. I wasn't sure there was any ice left with the structural integrity to crack .. b.c.

p.s. I see post 3538 up the page shows 2m ice @ 160E today ! .. take a peek on Worldview .. if that's 2m thick  then so am I ..
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 08:26:13 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3545 on: July 08, 2019, 08:36:31 PM »
In the meantime...Slater's model is pretty much unchanged the past few days.

Expected extent on Aug 27,2019: 4,31 M sq km

NSIDC extent on the same day of

2012: 3,94
2016: 4,77
2007: 4,83
2017: 5,00

Based on this, unless something extreme happens In July/Aug (superheat and or a big cyclone), it still looks like 2nd place for 2019.

This blows my mind that after everything that has gone on this year as well as being 7 years of warming into the future vs 2012. Seems 2012 was an absolutely exceptional event.

For starters, 2012 was an exceptional season. But don't place too much credence in the Slater model either. Anyone who tells you they know the outcome of weather dependent events this far in advance is selling snake oil.

At this stage 2019 is ahead of 2012.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3546 on: July 08, 2019, 08:37:04 PM »
One year was always going to highlight the 'slippage' in our measures since 2012?

This is looking like the year?

For those left scratching their heads (should this occur 'this year'?), trust your eyes in future don't just glue yourself to the numbers!!!
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3547 on: July 08, 2019, 09:05:01 PM »
 EC 12op has a 977 hpa Intensive cyclone in Laptev at D9-10. Night be interesting if it pans out. D6-8 has dipole.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3548 on: July 08, 2019, 09:11:00 PM »
add a bit of wind to the mix and we may start seeing multi-century daily drops if much of the ice is as thin as it appears. And the ECM midday run ends with a low in the 970's stirring the pot. b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3549 on: July 08, 2019, 09:14:37 PM »
In the meantime...Slater's model is pretty much unchanged the past few days.

Expected extent on Aug 27,2019: 4,31 M sq km

NSIDC extent on the same day of

2012: 3,94
2016: 4,77
2007: 4,83
2017: 5,00

Based on this, unless something extreme happens In July/Aug (superheat and or a big cyclone), it still looks like 2nd place for 2019.
What did the Slater model predict on this date for August 27, 2012? I'm betting that the prediction was more than 4.31Msqkm.