There isn't much wind impacting the inner basin at the moment, nor much wind that I see in the forecast.
Generally, I lean to the bearish side. But I think the momentum is going to ease up w/o much wind.
between >40C (heat i the south) and about 0C over the ice there will always be wind in one corner or another, right now there are heavy gusts blowing from laptev towards kara, opening that part of the NSR for good IMO.
That's a very substantial wind going from Laptev to Kara. My point remains that it isn"t having any incremental impact on the minimum.
That region is going to melt out regardless of any wind.
the point was whether there WILL BE wind once the forecast in 10days becomes true, NOT NOW.
secondly i said that where temp-slopes are steep, winds are not far, there is no exception to that. there is no physical atmospheric condition that allows hot and cold being side by side without airflow and the larger the difference the more violent that flow will be.
it was wrong from the first moment to come up with NOW in a discussion about a 10 days out forecast because they have nothing to do with each other.
thirdly you said you don't see any significant winds NOW, i proof you wrong hence perhaps you simply admit that for once and all is well.
perhaps you like below image more, it's about 10 days out and shos a lot of southerly headed directly to the pole ? is that impacting the region that won't melt out anyway sufficiently for your bias or is there anything else you want me illustrate ?
of course i don't believe 10day out forecasts but the starting point was a forecast that far out, hence apples with apples
last but not least, there would have been stronger winds on the opposite side of the basin but they're in the region that you say shall melt out either way, hence i chose this side.