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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3600 on: July 09, 2019, 07:22:05 PM »
It does not look much cooler at ice level , where it matters .. and wind is not the ice's friend .. may even up the momentum .. b.c.

There isn't much wind impacting the inner basin at the moment, nor much wind that I see in the forecast.

Generally, I lean to the bearish side. But I think the momentum is going to ease up w/o much wind.

between >40C (heat i the south) and about 0C over the ice there will always be wind in one corner or another, right now there are heavy gusts blowing from laptev towards kara, opening that part of the NSR for good IMO.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 07:29:42 PM by magnamentis »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3601 on: July 09, 2019, 07:26:09 PM »
PPS. I said that when we hit new minimum the weather would be crazy in the Arctic but worse in the mid latitudes. It looks like the models are now cluing in on a TC impact on the Lower Mississippi Valley that would potentially be devastating to both agriculture and several cities. We shall see what happens.... but I don't think it is coincidental that as we hit new volume minimum, the wx is turning sporadically hostile to everyday life on a basis more frequent than it ever has before.

One thing that must be mentioned is that the Mississippi is something like 10 feet above where it is supposed to be this time of year giving New Orleans only 3-4' of leeway before the levees would be overtopped by surge. A string of horrible coincidences so far this year could soon accumulate into a disaster worse than Katrina IMO, although it will hinge on how much surge goes up the Mississippi.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3602 on: July 09, 2019, 07:39:03 PM »
There isn't much wind impacting the inner basin at the moment, nor much wind that I see in the forecast.

Generally, I lean to the bearish side. But I think the momentum is going to ease up w/o much wind.

between >40C (heat i the south) and about 0C over the ice there will always be wind in one corner or another, right now there are heavy gusts blowing from laptev towards kara, opening that part of the NSR for good IMO.

That's a very substantial wind going from Laptev to Kara. My point remains that it isn"t having any incremental impact on the minimum.

That region is going to melt out regardless of any wind.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3603 on: July 09, 2019, 07:54:28 PM »
There isn't much wind impacting the inner basin at the moment, nor much wind that I see in the forecast.

Generally, I lean to the bearish side. But I think the momentum is going to ease up w/o much wind.

between >40C (heat i the south) and about 0C over the ice there will always be wind in one corner or another, right now there are heavy gusts blowing from laptev towards kara, opening that part of the NSR for good IMO.

That's a very substantial wind going from Laptev to Kara. My point remains that it isn"t having any incremental impact on the minimum.

That region is going to melt out regardless of any wind.

the point was whether there WILL BE wind once the forecast in 10days becomes true, NOT NOW.

secondly i said that where temp-slopes are steep, winds are not far, there is no exception to that. there is no physical atmospheric condition that allows hot and cold being side by side without airflow and the larger the difference the more violent that flow will be.

it was wrong from the first moment to come up with NOW in a discussion about a 10 days out forecast because they have nothing to do with each other.

thirdly you said you don't see any significant winds NOW, i proof you wrong hence perhaps you simply admit that for once and all is well.

perhaps you like below image more, it's about 10 days out and shos a lot of  southerly headed directly to the pole ?   is that impacting the region that won't melt out anyway sufficiently for your bias or is there anything else you want me illustrate ?

of course i don't believe 10day out forecasts but the starting point was a forecast that far out, hence apples with apples

last but not least, there would have been stronger winds on the opposite side of the basin but they're in the region that you say shall melt out either way, hence i chose this side.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 08:04:25 PM by magnamentis »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3604 on: July 09, 2019, 08:02:44 PM »
The GFS is trending towards a cool Arctic

Does that mean cyclones, or cool and calm?

I’m totally confused too.  I think the take home message is that this is an expert interpreting long term model results.  His interpretations are accurate, but long term models suck so we will wait and see what happens.  😝

in case that exact model becomes true it will be very very windy in some places ;) ;) ;) and as long as temps are above or around 0C and it's stormy, not much (nothing) is won.

It’s not the first time Judah Cohen creating a tsunami of confusion

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3605 on: July 09, 2019, 08:06:47 PM »
Judah Cohen appears to be anticipating a gradual shift towards a neutral or slightly negative AO for the remainder of the month (as opposed to more strongly negative in recent weeks), so this suggests average or slightly above average surface air pressures generally across the Arctic ocean.
However, he is also suggesting that the NAO will remain in its negative state, which means higher air pressure around Greenland.

Looking at the anomaly charts for geopotential height, which you can roughly take as a guide to surface pressure patterns, high pressure remains around Greenland and stretching back towards the Beaufort sea, with low pressure across the Eurasian side of the Arctic.

6-10 day


11-15 day


Rather than a general period of storminess, this suggests a switch to a more dipole like patterns, which a chances of some depressions around the ESS, Laptev and Eastern side of the central Arctic ocean.
While it might not bring the exceptional heat the last 2 months, the potential for compaction and export from such a fractured pack is very high, and leaves little reason to suggest the weather will save the ice.

This I find a good continuation of Judah Cohen’s blog for those focused on the Arctic, thanks
Please, don’t snip it, it is to have something of merit as we start a new page
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 08:32:58 PM by Sterks »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3606 on: July 09, 2019, 08:13:42 PM »
PS what was the source by chance?
I really like the source - pogodaiklimat - because it has graphs of the past and not just a forecast like most weather sites. It compares with daily climatology. It shows a whole month at a time. And archives the graphs of past months and years ...
Thank you so much. Bookmarked them all!

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3607 on: July 09, 2019, 08:21:16 PM »
There's no questioning Judah Cohen's interpretations of the model results, because they are correct...
If the GFS 384 hour prog verifies 2012 will likely take a solid lead over 2019, but I doubt the air over this Arctic will be as cool as the forecast output below.

If there is one thing I'd bet my mortgage on not happening it's whatever the the GFS is showing at hour 384...
Me too, and Judah Cohen too. To add to the confusion, tweet 3h ago:
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 08:29:03 PM by Sterks »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3608 on: July 09, 2019, 08:56:24 PM »
XXX-rated Pole Hole showing up on 12z EURO


jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3609 on: July 09, 2019, 09:52:58 PM »
<snip>
<snip>
The ice front is now hundreds of kilometers offshore. It's the temperature there that counts.

It's still going to melt at 1-2C above freezing, but not at the same rate that we've been losing ice recently.
<snip>

Actually, it starts melting at -1.8C.  By the time your sea water reaches 0c, your bottom melt rate is measured in multiple cm/day, more so if you are at 1-2C ... which much of the Beaufort has reached.

There's even more heat at depth, even in the Beaufort, so if things get stirred up, because of the current loosely consolidated state of the pack, that will permit Ekman pumping to bring a lot of that to the surface.

There's also the question of longwave radiation, which even with clouds, at this level of insolation, will continue to drop prodigious amounts of energy on to the ice.

The momentum is already there, thanks to June and the first part of July.  There will remain enough energy to maintain velocity.  I think the best we can hope for is that it doesn't *accelerate*, which it would were June conditions to persist.
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3610 on: July 09, 2019, 10:02:56 PM »
XXX-rated Pole Hole showing up on 12z EURO

For when is the forecast, who is making it, and how trustworthy is this source? I've never seen this map before.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3611 on: July 09, 2019, 10:03:57 PM »
XXX-rated Pole Hole showing up on 12z EURO

For when is the forecast, who is making it, and how trustworthy is this source? I've never seen this map before.
12z EURO via weather.us Day 9 or 10

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3612 on: July 09, 2019, 10:04:34 PM »
If the GFS 384 hour prog verifies 2012 will likely take a solid lead over 2019, but I doubt the air over this Arctic will be as cool as the forecast output below.
If there is one thing I'd bet my mortgage on not happening it's whatever the the GFS is showing at hour 384...
Me too, and Judah Cohen too. To add to the confusion, tweet 3h ago:
All in all, we're trying to predict how the pot is going to boil.  The climate system's primary drivers have been staggered, and volatility is increasing as a result.  With near-shore land temperatures consistently well above historical maximums region wide, with more heat and moisture being pumped into them from lower latitudes, its no surprise models are vacillating like they have been.

The gradient between land and sea temperatures has become both narrow and steep simultaneously.

Pure chaos ramping up.
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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3613 on: July 09, 2019, 10:45:49 PM »

 With near-shore land temperatures consistently well above normal....

The gradient between land and sea temperatures has become both narrow and steep simultaneously.


Near shore ocean temperatures are also above normal.

The one thing we haven't seen yet in 2019 is warm ocean temperatures over deeper water. 

In the last couple of days, the warm water has just started creeping out in front of deeper water in front of Banks Island, but it's just barely 1-2C at this point.

In this regard, 2012 has a decided edge over 2019.





Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3614 on: July 09, 2019, 11:53:31 PM »
Come on guys posts about the 384 hour GFS?

Also no year had "wall to wall" ridging.

It seems like quite a few active members here weren't around for 2012 or didnt follow the weather very closely.


2012 first two weeks of June  very sunny dipole for the most part.

Then a cloudy cool vortex took over from the 13/14th to the 26th.

Then the 27th of June saw a huge ridge blowing up over the CAB with major WAA from NA. 

A dipole anomaly ran the show from the 29th until the 10th.  The 11th was a transition day a strong vortex was expanding in size and strength while moving from the laptev region on the 11th towards the pole by the 12th and well into the CAB by the 13th and it expanded and rotated over 3/4th Arctic basin all the way until the 22nd/23rd.

Then things warmed up going into August.

Also the end of sunny skies in 2012 was the 11/12th of JULY.  LIKE THAT WAS IT.  IT WAS WALL TO WALL CLOUDS the rest of July.


The reason 2012 smashed the record was mostly because the lack of snow cover on the Arctic sea ice going into the melt season.

This is/wasa huge deal for any season to have major melt besides warmth.



I haven't seen the data for 2019 for what snow depth was at the end of May.

But I bet it was deeper than 2011 and 2012 in many areas.

However 2019 has made up for that with record level surface warmth.





Anyways please stop saying nonsense like:

It's getting cloudier so that gives 2012 an l the advantage.  Considering 2012 wasn't all that sunny before they 12th and after the 12th it was wall to wall clouds....


Also....

A more vortex laden pattern with a more neutral AO is giving 2012 an advantage is total nonsense.

I attached images below of 2012s turn in July. 

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3615 on: July 10, 2019, 12:02:43 AM »
Oh and I haven't really seen anyone talking about the MASSIVE PUSH OF HEAT the next few days that settles into the CAB.






I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3616 on: July 10, 2019, 12:08:09 AM »
For those interested in anecdotal evidence of what happened in 2012 around this time, I can highly recommend my own writings (someone has to do it) on the ASIB at the time: ASI 2012 Update 6: piggy bank

It corroborates a lot of what friv is saying.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3617 on: July 10, 2019, 12:39:35 AM »
Oh and I haven't really seen anyone talking about the MASSIVE PUSH OF HEAT the next few days that settles into the CAB.

Yikes!

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3618 on: July 10, 2019, 01:00:39 AM »
'tis crazy .. there's all that heat and a 2000km open front on retreat from Wrangel to Canada . Have you seen the ice ? I picked an emerging floe on may 1st .. it later was followed as it began to crack up as May became June . It now survives as a few bigger floes next the open sea . In Beaufort .. yes there are more floes that will take a month or two to die .. but along the rest of the front there is nothing to resist the momentum of on-going collapse .
  Then there's Wrangel to Lena and beyond . I wouldn't be hoping to find a floe in September to tether my boat to for the winter .
  Greenland and all about it bake .. Eric the Red could have shifted the real estate pretty easy this year ..
  and the other little thought of mine that never gets a hearing .. low angle sun shining on the sides of the trillions of trillions of little floes . There has been a LOT of low angle sun this summer .. but does anyone really know what it's been doing ?  . b.c.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 01:06:10 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Alison

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3619 on: July 10, 2019, 01:08:45 AM »
Quote
ASI 2012 Update 6: piggy bank

That brought back a few memories, Neven!

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3620 on: July 10, 2019, 02:14:45 AM »
PS what was the source by chance?
I really like the source - pogodaiklimat - because it has graphs of the past and not just a forecast like most weather sites. It compares with daily climatology. It shows a whole month at a time. And archives the graphs of past months and years that you can access at the bottom of the page.
Downsides are that it's in Russian (Google translate to the rescue), and only covers Russia and ex-soviet states, world big cities and the USA (but not Northern Canada or Greenland).

Here are my bookmarks plus a few others I managed to find now thanks to your question.
www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21432   Kotelny Island
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21824  Tiksi
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=25051  Pevek
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor3.php?id=PABR  Barrow
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982  Wrangel Island
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069  Vize island (Kara/CAB/Barents border)
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20046  Heiss Island (Franz Josef Land)

Windy  TV also includes weather stations on its map,and you can bring up a graph of observations that scroll back quite a way(but you can't display more than a few days),  its in English, includes Canadian posts and uses the same station ID numbers as listed in your post.

You can search for stations by name and number, and if you bring up the forecast for some location, at the end it might list the nearest weather station, if you're lucky. Weather stations are sparse in the Arctic, and only at the margins

I've included a screengrab of recent observations from Resolute (which like the rest of  CAA and adjacent CAB is forecast to remain "warm" for the next week , despite all this talk of cooler conditions)

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3621 on: July 10, 2019, 02:32:48 AM »
Though the big -AO goes away, we can't seem to get rid of the -NAO, and that's going to be a problem, as Friv points out -- especially for the Beaufort, CAB and part of the CAA. Strong winds, WAA and export are ice destroyers. Forget about the ESS, Chukchi and Laptev. They're so weak at this point there is virtually zero chance of them making it to the end of the season. A lot of that ice has turned into milky swirls and smaller floes.

The late June-early July pattern made all the difference here. Like 2012, the entire pack is riddled with melt ponds, something that is easily visible on Worldview at this juncture. There is no "safe" snow-covered haven like the last few years (and even 2016) had. It's going to take some very cold (relative to normal) weather to put the brakes on this.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3622 on: July 10, 2019, 03:02:22 AM »
Oh and I haven't really seen anyone talking about the MASSIVE PUSH OF HEAT the next few days that settles into the CAB.

The surface maximums aren't so dramatic as along the Siberian shore but the CAA has been under the hammer through July so far, and that;s only going to continue

Over the next few days as half the basin is covered by Russian heat and humidity, warmth also starts advanced from the CAA to the pole, and gets there about day 5.

I've attached the GFS 3 day average forecast, as well as 105 hrs into the 18z run, to show the advance of warmth from Canada, along with 900hPa (ie at around 900m altitude) temperatures from Windy TV for about now, and in 5 days.

That's not cool. 8)


Gumbercules

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3623 on: July 10, 2019, 03:06:24 AM »
July 4-8.

2018.

Looks like on the last day the ice in the Beaufort really starts to go.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3624 on: July 10, 2019, 03:15:58 AM »
what below, once more attached maps show very nicely and IMO that will soon become a huge problem due to positive feedback, is what temperatures we can expect arctic-wide once the ice is gone for good or reduced to irrelevance. exactly where the ice is temps hover slightly above and around zero C while wherever open water is temps jump up to 10-15C.

if that happens i think this is when the Sh.... hits the Fan.

watch the shadows in image 2 and guess where we're headed  ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 03:24:47 AM by magnamentis »

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3625 on: July 10, 2019, 05:37:00 AM »
For both reasons, I think that the Northern Sea Route will open earlier this year. End of July? On the middle of july (10th. to 20th.)? Beginning of August? Any bets?

July 9th???  :o
Almost!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

wdmn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3626 on: July 10, 2019, 05:49:28 AM »
For both reasons, I think that the Northern Sea Route will open earlier this year. End of July? On the middle of july (10th. to 20th.)? Beginning of August? Any bets?

July 9th???  :o
Almost!

Oof!

Massive loss in JAXA extent today (181k)

What sort of weather would stop a train falling off a cliff?

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3627 on: July 10, 2019, 06:46:57 AM »
Calm before the not-so-metaphorical storm, or dodging the nuke? Should be an interesting week or two...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3628 on: July 10, 2019, 07:06:22 AM »
SSTs are getting more and more insane in the Chukchi.

These are temps not anomalies...  :o

Also even inside the extent line between the floes... pushing 5 C in a large and expanding area.

Just needs a stir...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3629 on: July 10, 2019, 07:18:18 AM »
what below, once more attached maps show very nicely and IMO that will soon become a huge problem due to positive feedback, is what temperatures we can expect arctic-wide once the ice is gone for good or reduced to irrelevance. exactly where the ice is temps hover slightly above and around zero C while wherever open water is temps jump up to 10-15C.
<snippage>
I would say it looks like the Chukchi (or whats left of it), ESS and Laptev are imploding.
Yeah, the Northern Sea Route will be open within hours, looks like.
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3630 on: July 10, 2019, 07:22:03 AM »
One question about this graph on Karsten Haustein's website.

Does this mean the GFS model is underestimating temperatures, or is it the other way around?
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3631 on: July 10, 2019, 07:22:22 AM »
From 2019 sea ice area and extent data.
Would sunlight reflecting off a solid ice pack warm the air more than sunlight being absorbed by the open water between fractured floes?
No. The surface absorbs the majority of sunlight that the Earth absorbs. Air absorbs little sunlight. Any condition where the air above is warmer than the surface mean warmer air has been imported from elsewhere. Why do you ask?
Earth's energy budget. Globally air absorbs 23% of sunlight, surface 48%. In the Arctic, I guess, air absorbs more than surface.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3632 on: July 10, 2019, 07:34:05 AM »
And here in the Chukchi/ESS is 750,000km2 of poorly consolidated, darkened ice under serious and immediate threat.

There's some MYI embedded in there, but if you dive in, you'll see those blocks in a "ground mass" of much smaller flows, none of which has any structure.

This is what that heat is landing on, and I'm betting those high SST's in part are standing water on a lot of that ice, which in turn is what's reducing the albedo.

I give most of this 2 weeks, if that.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 07:40:55 AM by jdallen »
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wdmn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3633 on: July 10, 2019, 07:39:14 AM »
And here is 750,000km2 of poorly consolidated, darkened ice under serious and immediate threat.

There's some MYI embedded in there, but if you dive in, you'll see those blocks in a "ground mass" of much smaller flows, none of which has any structure.

This is what that heat is landing on, and I'm betting those high SST's in part are standing water on a lot of that ice, which in turn is what's reducing the albedo.

I give most of this 2 weeks, if that.

This is the ESS right?

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3634 on: July 10, 2019, 07:40:08 AM »
Chukchi-Beaufort juncture NE of Wrangel Island.

This is what I expect that ESS ice to look like in a week to 10 days.  From yesterday.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3635 on: July 10, 2019, 07:41:32 AM »
And here is 750,000km2 <snippage>

This is the ESS right?
Correct, and reference added.  Thank you.
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binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3636 on: July 10, 2019, 08:49:13 AM »
The one thing we haven't seen yet in 2019 is warm ocean temperatures over deeper water. 

Interesting. Do you have any data to back this claim up? A couple of pictures would be nice.
In the last couple of days, the warm water has just started creeping out in front of deeper water in front of Banks Island, but it's just barely 1-2C at this point.
You mean under the ice? Where did you find the water temps for "deeper water in front of Banks Island" (And where is that precisely? There is deep water som hundreds of kilometers north of Banks Island).
In this regard, 2012 has a decided edge over 2019.
You seem to be saying that ocean temperatures over deeper waters were higher in 2012 than in 2019. It is an interesting claim. Do you have data to back it up? And it would be interesting to know why you think it matters?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3637 on: July 10, 2019, 09:13:30 AM »
The surface maximums aren't so dramatic as along the Siberian shore but the CAA has been under the hammer through July so far, and that;s only going to continue

Over the next few days as half the basin is covered by Russian heat and humidity, warmth also starts advanced from the CAA to the pole, and gets there about day 5.

I've attached the GFS 3 day average forecast, as well as 105 hrs into the 18z run, to show the advance of warmth from Canada, along with 900hPa (ie at around 900m altitude) temperatures from Windy TV for about now, and in 5 days.

That's not cool. 8)
I agree with what you said and really liked how you show the warmth that's coming in the American side (the CAA been there for a while, true), but those current 2m temps in the Siberian/Chukchi side are not short of dramatic, a couple of days more only but already finishing a lot of 'wrecked' ice...

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3638 on: July 10, 2019, 09:29:01 AM »
One question about this graph on Karsten Haustein's website.

Does this mean the GFS model is underestimating temperatures, or is it the other way around?

If I may, it is written on the graph ;) 168h forecast - analysis. It is usualy the way a bias is defined, some mesures against some kind of reference. So this means that if difference is positive (positive bias), GFS is too hot on its forecast, and if negative GFS is running too col. Currently, since the update, forecast from GFS are too cold. But this is for T2m, and over ice temperature at 2 meters is less signifiant.

Meanwhile, somewhere in the Arctic :

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21982&decoded=yes&ndays=20&ano=2019&mes=07&day=10&hora=06

No record (yet), as it reached 18.2°C in 1927, but the strech of warmth is impressive, and as others said is not going to end soon...

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3639 on: July 10, 2019, 09:35:44 AM »

You seem to be saying that ocean temperatures over deeper waters were higher in 2012 than in 2019. It is an interesting claim. Do you have data to back it up? And it would be interesting to knowledge why you think it matters?

If you look at post #3 in the 2019 vs. 2012 thread, there are images depicting sea surface anomaly for July of both years.

As for why it's relevant when warm water extends further from shore, it has something to do with the role of heat in the melting of ice. You're a smart guy. You get it.


BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3640 on: July 10, 2019, 10:03:31 AM »
Various people have highlighted the darkening of the ice, particularly on the Pacific side. I just wanted to add that this is part of the momentum equation:

Thinner ice is darker – particularly on the Pacific side, where there is either sediment in the bottom layer of the ice or algae on the bottom of the ice, according to competing hypotheses.  We are now almost 3 weeks past the solstice, but the ice can in some cases absorb more energy from the Sun than it did at the solstice if it has thinned sufficiently to significantly lower its albedo. Subgeometer estimated the albedo at 0.42 in some places a few pages back.

So, early thinning equals lower albedo and faster melt in July/August. Conversely, late thinning equals higher albedo remains higher and the top melt falls behind in relative terms. This is also part of the reason why dark ice on the Pacific side can melt out so quickly at this time of year.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3641 on: July 10, 2019, 10:07:32 AM »
Friv is correct wrt the snow cover in 2012. NSIDC wrote that most of the melting of sea ice around Antarctica is due to bottom melting. Melting ponds are rarely observed onto the ice. A lot of precip is falling onto the ice around Antarctica.

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3642 on: July 10, 2019, 10:23:19 AM »
Is anyone else having trouble accessing the breman sea ice page, keep getting the security warning popping up and the image for 2019 on the Arctic sea ice graphs is blanked out.

Must admit I am quite taken a back just how much ice has melted in recent days, maybe the SSTS on the Pacific side of the basin are making its presence felt?


psymmo7

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3643 on: July 10, 2019, 10:31:31 AM »
I can confirm that there is a security problem with the University of Bremen website.
If the security risk  is accepted all their graphs can still be accessed.

SirLurkALot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3644 on: July 10, 2019, 10:33:05 AM »
Is anyone else having trouble accessing the breman sea ice page, keep getting the security warning popping up and the image for 2019 on the Arctic sea ice graphs is blanked out.

Yes, me too.

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3645 on: July 10, 2019, 10:40:02 AM »
It's not just the Pacific where there's a lot of melting going on. On the border between the Kara and Barents seas, the ice edge has gone from being a solid, compact line on 5 July to having lots of swirls of melting ice on 9 July. A wide band of the ice is also significantly darkened.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3646 on: July 10, 2019, 10:40:31 AM »
I can confirm that there is a security problem with the University of Bremen website.
If the security risk  is accepted all their graphs can still be accessed.

It's likely an expired SSL Certificate. This is foremost a privacy issue, not necessarily a security issue meaning a 'man in the middle' could spy on your connection.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3647 on: July 10, 2019, 11:12:54 AM »
I can confirm that there is a security problem with the University of Bremen website.
If the security risk  is accepted all their graphs can still be accessed.

It's likely an expired SSL Certificate. This is foremost a privacy issue, not necessarily a security issue meaning a 'man in the middle' could spy on your connection.

Are hydrocarbon lobbyists trying to stop a disaster?

Meanwhile, melting in the Arctic basin begins to slow down. I hope that will allow civilization to give more time for survival.

HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3648 on: July 10, 2019, 11:40:28 AM »
It's likely an expired SSL Certificate. This is foremost a privacy issue, not necessarily a security issue meaning a 'man in the middle' could spy on your connection.

Yep, that's all it is, no biggie. I myself have done the same thing more than once - forgotten to pay the SSL cert renewal fee before it expired. Crawl out of bed in the morning > check in on the website > see a whole bunch of panicked forum posts > "oops, my bad, sorry"

I wish more sites used services such as Let's Encrypt. Free & open source.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3649 on: July 10, 2019, 12:01:57 PM »
It's not just the Pacific where there's a lot of melting going on. On the border between the Kara and Barents seas, the ice edge has gone from being a solid, compact line on 5 July to having lots of swirls of melting ice on 9 July. A wide band of the ice is also significantly darkened.

Ahhh... The famous goodbye waves....