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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3650 on: July 10, 2019, 12:01:57 PM »
It's not just the Pacific where there's a lot of melting going on. On the border between the Kara and Barents seas, the ice edge has gone from being a solid, compact line on 5 July to having lots of swirls of melting ice on 9 July. A wide band of the ice is also significantly darkened.

Ahhh... The famous goodbye waves....

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3651 on: July 10, 2019, 12:08:10 PM »
Let's Encrypt

Let's Encrypt FTW! \o/

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3652 on: July 10, 2019, 12:16:05 PM »
How common are thunderstorms around the Lena river?  Lena delta in the upper right.
Click to play

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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3653 on: July 10, 2019, 12:30:23 PM »
Is anyone else having trouble accessing the breman sea ice page, keep getting the security warning popping up and the image for 2019 on the Arctic sea ice graphs is blanked out.

I'm on windows10 and accessing via google chrome.
I got the message. It happens sometimes. Something to do with certificates.

If you got the same messages, what you do is (see images below)

Click "Advanced"

On the next screen go to the bottom of the page and click "Proceed to....."
__________________________________________________________
EDIT: I think the University of Bremen has tripped up on doing routine maintenance
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 12:37:12 PM by gerontocrat »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3654 on: July 10, 2019, 01:46:54 PM »
Don't give Bremen your bank account and everything will be ok.  :D

DavidR

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3655 on: July 10, 2019, 01:54:09 PM »
Another massive drop in NSIDC (247K) and Jaxa  (181) extents today.  Extent is lowest by a big margin.  As Neven said, quoting  Celine Dijon, " Baby, this is serious!"
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Eco-Author

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3656 on: July 10, 2019, 02:30:11 PM »
No matter how you cut it, whether this year is a record low or not, we are warming up the planet greatly.  Global Ice well WELL below the line even compared to a SUPER El Nino year.  You have record or near record starts to several seas like the Bering, Beaufort... chuchi‚Ķ Laptev.... this is all adding up... I'd give it two/three more years till Laptev and Chuchi are acting like the Berring in the dead of winter and just falling apart... 500K lover at max we'll say.  No one hear I'd think doubts the coming of a BOA.... there'd likely be more of an obvious sign early on, not just neck and neck with the last record low.  The Jaw Dropping 1-in-what-10-million chanced for the fall of 2016 record low globally looks to be very much at play this year.  Looking at the ice I'd have to personally guess we have another two weeks of 'ready to go ice' but we will indeed need some sort of sub 980mb type storm to mix things up if we are to keep up at this pace. 

Nares seems to be stalled out... almost as if the ice became too much like slush and was smashed together like a snowball... sticking to the sides of the channel... This was unexpected probably even a slight positive feedback? 
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3657 on: July 10, 2019, 02:33:52 PM »
This was unexpected probably even a slight positive feedback? 

I read somewhere an occasionally stalling in summer is not so uncommon. Damn me, can't find it anymore.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3658 on: July 10, 2019, 02:34:49 PM »

You seem to be saying that ocean temperatures over deeper waters were higher in 2012 than in 2019. It is an interesting claim. Do you have data to back it up? And it would be interesting to knowledge why you think it matters?

If you look at post #3 in the 2019 vs. 2012 thread, there are images depicting sea surface anomaly for July of both years.

As for why it's relevant when warm water extends further from shore, it has something to do with the role of heat in the melting of ice. You're a smart guy. You get it.
So you are making these strange claims on the basis of SST anomaly comparison between 2012 and 2019 in one area of ocean from this post from Neven.

It so happens that this area was ice free in 2012, but is this year covered in rapidly melting ice, which obviously keeps the temperatures down.

I've attached part of Neven's picture and another that ArcticMelt2 posted in the same thread. There you can clearly see that the only area where there is ice in 2019 but not 2012 (the green blob next to Banks Island) is of couse the one that shows the largest SST anomalies for 2012, while the read areas (ice free now, covered with ice in 2012) show the largest SST anomalies for 2019.

So high SST anomalies in some places where there is open water compared to other places where ice is melting rapidly - what are you trying to tell us by pointing this out?

And your claim that the temperature is "barely 1-2 degrees" now in that area shows a strange lack of understanding of basic physics. If you check, the temperature is actually between -1.8 and -0.6 as is to be expected in ocean water containing rapidly melting ice.

So perhaps I'm a clever guy but I am absolutely lost trying to understand where you are going with your strange and spurious claims.
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3659 on: July 10, 2019, 02:50:33 PM »
You guys having fun?  ;)
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3660 on: July 10, 2019, 03:11:19 PM »
Could any of this anomalous warming in the ESS and Alaska be from localized methane emissions? How soon does methane contribute warming once released?

<Edit Neven: Ask questions like this one in the 'stupid' questions thread, or the methane thread.>
...

<Edit Neven: ... No, it shouldn't be discussed here, because this thread is for near-real time monitoring of conditions in the Arctic. If you can point to reliable near-real time data graphs or maps that have a direct influence on the outcome of this melting season, and that can be compared to previous years, please do so. If not, take it up in other threads.>
Understood, appreciated!

I can "point" to it indeed - the guys who did this neat animation (press "play" button in the bottom right corner; it takes a bit to load) seem to have plenty good data on the subject. And those fellows are quite reliable bunch. But for now i am unable to "compare to previous years" due to particularities of data retrieval they offer. But perhaps someone else can do it for us here?

And please allow me to just briefly answer Oscilidous' questions, as these answers can help more than just him, i'm sure. I promise i won't go any further on this topic, too.

1. yes, quite some of that high heat could well be caused by local (regional) methane emissions, since methane's local warming potential is ~1000 times higher than CO2 and as you can see from the 1st link i gave just above in this post, both Alaska and ESAS have significantly elevated methane levels presently.

2. once methane reaches athmosphere - it starts to contribute extra warming instantly, as surface always emits IR (sunny days more, cloudy days / nights less) and methane is rather dilute presently, means every molecule is pretty effective at adding extra greenhouse effect; some technical info about how it all works can be found here.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3661 on: July 10, 2019, 03:16:41 PM »
One question about this graph on Karsten Haustein's website.
Does this mean the GFS model is underestimating temperatures, or is it the other way around?
See chart at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg212351.html#msg212351

    Non-expert talking, but I've been tracking GFS prediction vs. GISTEMP finalized values for several years.  Looking at the chart and my monthly comparisons indicates that the chart is saying that for Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr the GFS forecast turned out to be lower than the subsequent GISTEMP observations (by 0.06 C averaged across those 4 months).  For May, the GFS forecast turned out to be slightly (0.01 C) above the reported GISTEMP observation. 
   
    June forecasts were running above verification until mid-June.  On June 12 NOAA switched to new FV3-GFS model that so far has been underestimating global surface temperature when compared to verification.

      As of July 10, based on observed GISTEMP for Jan-May, and GFS forecasts for June and July 1-17, the estimate for end of year 2019 average is ca. 1.17 C above 1850-1900.  2019 will be first or second place (85% chance) relative to all other years in 1880-2019 GISTEMP record.  2019 is near record warm with only moderate El Nino effect, and on downward side of solar cycle which has a real but smaller influence.

    Bottom line: The planet continues to warm.  IPCC projections are based on straight line 30-year average projection of  0.2 (+/- 0.1) C per decade.  But a closer look shows that the rate of increase is increasing, e.g. 2009-2019 (11 years to includes a full solar cycle) change in GISTEMP is 0.36 C per decade.  We will be lucky not to pass 1.5C by 2032.  God bless the folks who AFAIK mostly donate their time to create IPCC reports.  But any report that requires consensus of 1500 scientists and 200 governments is bound to be conservative.  If you think IPCC is alarmist, read https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324528571_What_Lies_Beneath_The_scientific_understatement_of_climate_risks
     

     OK, done preaching to the choir.  Not completely on topic for 2019 melting thread, but obviously related.  The energy that is melting the ASI is relentlessly increasing because of our choices.  Being aware means being alarmed, and better yet activated in pursuing solutions that are already available. 
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 11:09:15 PM by Glen Koehler »

LDorey

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3662 on: July 10, 2019, 04:25:38 PM »
One question about this graph on Karsten Haustein's website.

Does this mean the GFS model is underestimating temperatures, or is it the other way around?

My Read of that is the NH (0-90N) is consistently showing 0.2 C over, and the SH (0-90S) is showing roughly 0.2 low, and on average 90N-60S is pretty close. It'd be interesting to see what 60N to 90N is... see if that error is magnified in the arctic.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3663 on: July 10, 2019, 06:53:25 PM »
Calm before the not-so-metaphorical storm, or dodging the nuke? Should be an interesting week or two...

while i wouldn't call yesterday accelerated drop "calm" i know what you mean. just see it this way:

we are in the middle of it and the clouds and the cool weather has to hurry.

i start to be glad that i let the some o fhte lower bins checked in the exclusion poll ;) ;)

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3664 on: July 10, 2019, 07:05:24 PM »
Nares seems to be stalled out... almost as if the ice became too much like slush and was smashed together like a snowball... sticking to the sides of the channel... This was unexpected probably even a slight positive feedback?

the current sucks downward and the wind blows upward = equality as long as it lasts and/or no further factors like tides come in to play.

no feedback IMO but a simple balance of the forces for a while, we shall see (can verify/falsify) once the wind abated.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3665 on: July 10, 2019, 09:24:12 PM »
The most interesting part of the forecast evolution is the warmth is still going to reach the CAA, CAB, and Beaufort.

The cyclone never really collapses it's warm sector and occludes top down. 

Basically warm air is constantly being drawn into the cycle life of the vortex and it moves around.

Anyways the CHUCHKI, ESS, and Laptev are toast

So the gun firing on the CAB will keep weakening that ice and allow for more CAB compaction in August.
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a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

NACK

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3666 on: July 10, 2019, 09:32:39 PM »
Nares seems to be stalled out... almost as if the ice became too much like slush and was smashed together like a snowball... sticking to the sides of the channel... This was unexpected probably even a slight positive feedback?

the current sucks downward and the wind blows upward = equality as long as it lasts and/or no further factors like tides come in to play.

no feedback IMO but a simple balance of the forces for a while, we shall see (can verify/falsify) once the wind abated.

Looked to me like a lot of ice came off Peterson Glacier and blocked the export channel...

plg

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3667 on: July 10, 2019, 10:14:15 PM »
(Cross posting from Greenland thread):
Anybody seen this? I was not aware of the Ising model:
If you are not paranoid you just do not have enough information yet.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3668 on: July 10, 2019, 10:47:12 PM »
The situation is so bad. While our eyes are glued to the Arctic the mid-latitudes are now dealing with this.

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1149041599810195456

<Edit Neven: Snip the rest. This thread is for keeping our eyes glued to the Arctic, not to discuss the wider implications. How often do I need to repeat?>
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 10:55:07 PM by Neven »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3669 on: July 10, 2019, 11:12:16 PM »
The situation is so bad. While our eyes are glued to the Arctic the mid-latitudes are now dealing with this.

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1149041599810195456

<Edit Neven: Snip the rest. This thread is for keeping our eyes glued to the Arctic, not to discuss the wider implications. How often do I need to repeat?>

Neat link. There are a number of threads in the Consequences section of this blog where it could be discussed.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3670 on: July 10, 2019, 11:13:09 PM »
The situation is so bad. While our eyes are glued to the Arctic the mid-latitudes are now dealing with this.

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1149041599810195456

<Edit Neven: Snip the rest. This thread is for keeping our eyes glued to the Arctic, not to discuss the wider implications. How often do I need to repeat?>

Have there ever been an instance of one of these subtropical "rain bombs" working their way north and falling on either greenland ice or the arctic?

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3671 on: July 10, 2019, 11:37:00 PM »
The situation is so bad. While our eyes are glued to the Arctic the mid-latitudes are now dealing with this.

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1149041599810195456

<Edit Neven: Snip the rest. This thread is for keeping our eyes glued to the Arctic, not to discuss the wider implications. How often do I need to repeat?>
Have there ever been an instance of one of these subtropical "rain bombs" working their way north and falling on either greenland ice or the arctic?
There are things called atmospheric rivers. Whether the green strip in the image attached is a true one I do not know. But NHC says that Barry will come ashore heading north in a gap between two highs. Perhaps that will give the system another dose of energy and water that in a few days gets dumped on the CAA.

(Hope I don't get snipped)
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3672 on: July 10, 2019, 11:57:17 PM »
sigh...
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3673 on: July 10, 2019, 11:59:27 PM »
Nares seems to be stalled out... almost as if the ice became too much like slush and was smashed together like a snowball... sticking to the sides of the channel... This was unexpected probably even a slight positive feedback?

the current sucks downward and the wind blows upward = equality as long as it lasts and/or no further factors like tides come in to play.

no feedback IMO but a simple balance of the forces for a while, we shall see (can verify/falsify) once the wind abated.

Looked to me like a lot of ice came off Peterson Glacier and blocked the export channel...

sorry, can't agree, ice from a glacier comes as rubble and icebergs at best and would not be able to block the straight. IMO it's a coincidence that and where that rubble has "parked" and that exactly then the current is compensated by wind in the way it is.

however just another opinion for for the sake of assessing pros and cons of each theory ;)
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 12:10:26 AM by magnamentis »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3674 on: July 11, 2019, 12:00:39 AM »
We have probably hit the Pinnacle of ice loss for this melt season.


I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3675 on: July 11, 2019, 12:12:35 AM »
We have probably hit the Pinnacle of ice loss for this melt season.

you mean from now on the melt will fall behind all other years, because that would be the case if we reached the pinnacle now.

i assume that it will continue for at least another 3-4 weeks or even longer, hence i ask you, what makes you think that we reached pinnacle already.

abraca

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3676 on: July 11, 2019, 12:22:38 AM »
Hello, hope this fits topic. A 100-day long journey of a floe. Very resilient one - all her neighbors, even bigger ones and more in the back on the start line, are in shambles already. She's alone now reaching another coast, a roasting one this time.
Where's her finish line?

14MB gif (hope it will work well) with 30sec loop, you can look at other floes in next loops, but don't waste more than 10 minutes on this.  ;)

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3677 on: July 11, 2019, 01:06:17 AM »
We have probably hit the Pinnacle of ice loss for this melt season.

you mean from now on the melt will fall behind all other years, because that would be the case if we reached the pinnacle now.

i assume that it will continue for at least another 3-4 weeks or even longer, hence i ask you, what makes you think that we reached pinnacle already.

Like the huge losses in area and extent are probably over or almost over.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3678 on: July 11, 2019, 01:11:37 AM »
We have probably hit the Pinnacle of ice loss for this melt season.

you mean from now on the melt will fall behind all other years, because that would be the case if we reached the pinnacle now.

i assume that it will continue for at least another 3-4 weeks or even longer, hence i ask you, what makes you think that we reached pinnacle already.

Like the huge losses in area and extent are probably over or almost over.

Well, that certainly clears things up! ::)

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3679 on: July 11, 2019, 01:12:25 AM »
We have probably hit the Pinnacle of ice loss for this melt season.

you mean from now on the melt will fall behind all other years, because that would be the case if we reached the pinnacle now.

i assume that it will continue for at least another 3-4 weeks or even longer, hence i ask you, what makes you think that we reached pinnacle already.


Like the huge losses in area and extent are probably over or almost over.

ok, i think the huge losses didn't even happen yet, i expect tripple centuries soon, let's see, interesting either way. ;) ;)

thanks for clarification, just wanted to exclude a misunderstanding.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3680 on: July 11, 2019, 01:15:30 AM »
We have probably hit the Pinnacle of ice loss for this melt season.

you mean from now on the melt will fall behind all other years, because that would be the case if we reached the pinnacle now.

i assume that it will continue for at least another 3-4 weeks or even longer, hence i ask you, what makes you think that we reached pinnacle already.

Like the huge losses in area and extent are probably over or almost over.

Well, that certainly clears things up! ::)

LOL i think it made clear things less clear because i thought it was common sense that the worst lays ahead and now, obviously, some have another opinion, the future will tell us.

i'm still a bit surprised about that statement but perhaps i simply miss a/the point here, confused a bit.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3681 on: July 11, 2019, 01:26:45 AM »


And your claim that the temperature is "barely 1-2 degrees" now in that area shows a strange lack of understanding of basic physics. If you check, the temperature is actually between -1.8 and -0.6 as is to be expected in ocean water containing rapidly melting ice.

So perhaps I'm a clever guy but I am absolutely lost trying to understand where you are going with your strange and spurious claims.

First Binntho, thanks for sharing the map which confirms the initial point I made about the region where warm water extended over deep water in the Canada Basin in 2012. Something which hasn"t occurred in 2019.

The information of the current emerging 1-2C water in that region comes from the GFS. If you go to climate reanalyzer.org and select Today's weather maps, there is an an option for SST's. I check it often. It shows the slowly emerging above zero temperature in the region.

I've provided a trail of evidence to support every claim I've made on this point. There is nothing spurious and at this point you're just trying to harass me. Stop acting like an idiot.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3682 on: July 11, 2019, 01:56:28 AM »
The 5 day average loss in NSIDC area barely slipped under 100k km2 today, breaking a 16 day streak. A suggestion that momentum is declining.

Area had been so far out ahead of extent that the huge drops in extent to catch up were inevitable. But area is the better indicator of momentum.

A lot of season still to come but I see Friv's point that we may have just witnessed the peak of 2019.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 02:10:32 AM by Rich »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3683 on: July 11, 2019, 02:34:58 AM »
If there are major storms, I think the worst is yet to come.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3684 on: July 11, 2019, 02:42:37 AM »
We have probably hit the Pinnacle of ice loss for this melt season.

you mean from now on the melt will fall behind all other years, because that would be the case if we reached the pinnacle now.

i assume that it will continue for at least another 3-4 weeks or even longer, hence i ask you, what makes you think that we reached pinnacle already.

Like the huge losses in area and extent are probably over or almost over.
I'm not so sure. There's something on the order of a million km2 in the ESS, Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort that's perilously close to soup time.   Add in the odd bits elsewhere and its enough weak pack to keep up these losses for 10-14 days I recon.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3685 on: July 11, 2019, 02:48:57 AM »
Hello, hope this fits topic. A 100-day long journey of a floe. Very resilient one - all her neighbors, even bigger ones and more in the back on the start line, are in shambles already. She's alone now reaching another coast, a roasting one this time.
Where's her finish line?

14MB gif (hope it will work well) with 30sec loop, you can look at other floes in next loops, but don't waste more than 10 minutes on this.  ;)
An amazing animation, and an amazing fate for the Beaufort ice. The fact that so many of these 100 days were cloud free is quite meaningful. The floe will reach the finish line soon IMHO, traveling in warm waters and a southerly latitude is not good for ice health. She should have stayed in the CAB above the CAA, but that's a big story of this whole melting season, ice moving to where it shouldn't.
Technical tip: duplicate the last frame a couple of times, this will generate a little pause at the end before looping.

A technical tip for other posters here (such as Magnamentis), when responding please quote only the relevant part by editing out the (quote)(/quote) blocks, rather than quoting the very long chain of posts quoted in the message you are responding to.

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3686 on: July 11, 2019, 02:52:47 AM »
This looks interesting, just a few days out

Burnrate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3687 on: July 11, 2019, 03:00:11 AM »
If there are major storms, I think the worst is yet to come.

Can you elaborate for those of us less literate in wind/pressure maps!

Do you think the low over the hot Chukchi is going to make a storm in 10 days?

Random forecast images with cryptic and foreboding sentences rustle my jimmies.  ;)
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 03:15:16 AM by Burnrate »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3688 on: July 11, 2019, 03:04:48 AM »
We have probably hit the Pinnacle of ice loss for this melt season.

you mean from now on the melt will fall behind all other years, because that would be the case if we reached the pinnacle now.

i assume that it will continue for at least another 3-4 weeks or even longer, hence i ask you, what makes you think that we reached pinnacle already.

Like the huge losses in area and extent are probably over or almost over.
I'm not so sure. There's something on the order of a million km2 in the ESS, Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort that's perilously close to soup time.   Add in the odd bits elsewhere and its enough weak pack to keep up these losses for 10-14 days I recon.

Maybe, but I doubt we average losing 130-150K a day in extent for the next 10-14 days.

The laptev and Beaufort just aren't going to contribute very much to that.

I see this being more of a marathon to the finish versus a long peak sprint.


We'll see
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3689 on: July 11, 2019, 03:06:43 AM »
i think i understand now on what friv has based his statement.

airtemps definitely start do drop over the next few days, peak insolation is coming to an end and the summer >80N, as far as being torched, is over in a week or two latest.

on the other hand temps are still above and around zero for another 2-3 weeks hence the drop in temps, as long as they stay above zero and melt-ponds don't melt and bottom melt does the job, we could see steady declines followed either by  flattening curve and/or a wind and wave action based wipe out so to say.

someone said, "i'm not sure" neither am i, it's not possible to be sure, there are so many things that can happen, the range is huge, but a drop i temps of 1-2 degrees coming from 3-15C won't stop this alone, let's see.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3690 on: July 11, 2019, 03:09:55 AM »
If there are major storms, I think the worst is yet to come.

Can you elaborate for those of us less literate in wind/pressure maps!

Do you think the low over the hot Chukchi is going to make a storm in 10 days?

Random forecast mages with cryptic and foreboding sentences rustle my jimmies.  ;)

that would be somewhere between 950 and 980 hPa at see level while not only the strength will be important but the direction, temperature and the run-up over how much open water as well.
pressures below 950 are rare and would make it strong hurricane level and above 980 it would be a cat-1 hurricane level that i consider a strong but not a major storm, my take on it, science and others may see this differently, no problem.

Conversion is easy. 1000 hPa are equal to 1000 mbar, which is equal to 750 mm of mercury in a barometric column, which is 0.987 of the average atmospheric pressure, which on global average is 1013 millibars or hectopascals

Further nobody made a forecast, neither random, nor cryptic or anything of that kind. it was a simple statement IF there is a major storm, THEN the worst is yet to come, no mention of when how and which low, hence the remark was superfluous.

finally a nice goody for those who like nice images, beware the shadows of blues in the lower left part of the arctic ( ESS / LAPEV / CHUKI )

(click image to enlarge it)
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 03:28:00 AM by magnamentis »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3691 on: July 11, 2019, 03:43:03 AM »
There is a couple things so far that say a new record low minimum is unlikely.


1.  The CAA in 2012 almost entirely melted out.

This summer we are not going to come anywhere near that.

While the CAA has recently seen solid melting conditions.  the models are showing a return to cloudy and cool conditions for at least part of next week if not all of it.

in the long-range the models diverge on whether or not we are going to see a southerly warm sunny pattern return there or not

even if we do it still probably won't be enough to bring us within a hundred thousand of 2012 extent wise in the CAA.

Its likely 2019 finishes at least 150K higher in extent than 2012.  Maybe more.

2.  The Beaufort/SW CAB is going to be a major road block.  2012 was much warmer in that region than 2019 so far and through July 28th.

Then around the 28th of July with a pool of raging hot SSTs already. A rare set up prior to the "GAC" brought enormous heat to the ice in the beaufort/WCAB.

Large floes that were 3-4M thick at the end of winter melted out by seasons end because of this.

Between the 29th and 4th of August we saw increadible WAA.

The top image is June 1-July 28 2012.  We can see the CAB/Beaufort we're hit hard

The next image is the 29th-4th of August.

The scale of the second image was increased to fit the extreme anomalies.


I don't see anything so far that would indicate 2019 will see this kind of melt in the WCAB.

I think 2019 finishes second to 2012.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3692 on: July 11, 2019, 03:46:31 AM »
Can you elaborate for those of us less literate in wind/pressure maps!
that would be somewhere between 950 and 980 hPa at see level while not only the strength will be important but the direction, temperature and the run-up over how much open water as well.

Magnamentis did a better job elaborating than I could. I am no expert. My point was general. No, I don't think model details at +10 days will turn out to be correct. But the trend does seem to be swinging from sunny to stormy weather. *If* some big storms do develop -- and with the amount of energy in the system it wouldn't be surprising -- I think we will lose ice quickly. I guess the models bear that out in general.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3693 on: July 11, 2019, 04:09:24 AM »
There is a couple things so far that say a new record low minimum is unlikely.

1.  The CAA in 2012 almost entirely melted out.

This summer we are not going to come anywhere near that.

2.  The Beaufort/SW CAB is going to be a major road block.  2012 was much warmer in that region than 2019 so far and through July 28th.

I think 2019 finishes second to 2012.
I tend to agree with most of the analysis. But I think the Beaufort will melt out this year regardless of all the export it received, and I remind that the top part of the CAB above the N Pole is made out of FYI this year, due to the ongoing export all winter (A-Team's ASCAT animations). And there's the possibility of a GAC this year as well, due to the extra High Arctic open water at peak insolation. That energy is somewhere in the system.
Agree a higher probability of finishing 2nd, but record not ruled out yet.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3694 on: July 11, 2019, 05:00:15 AM »

Sourabh

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3695 on: July 11, 2019, 05:30:19 AM »
Melting momentum discussed on the forum mainly focuses on May-June period, though I could be wrong here. I was wondering if there was any such thing as post-June melting momentum. I am remember it has been discussed previously, particularly during the melting season of 2016, when July made up for any lack of any May-June melting momentum.

Clear skies and high temperatures after 21-22 June  lasting until 15-20th July can also provide similar melting momentum. I remember Neven posted some criteria on how a perfect/ice-free Arctic melting season would unfold.

My question is whether 2019 could be a 'model' year towards such perfect melting season in which both pre-June and post-June melting momentum play a role.

If June was a 'heck of a month', can July be another 'heck of a month'?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3696 on: July 11, 2019, 06:13:32 AM »
Melting momentum discussed on the forum mainly focuses on May-June period, though I could be wrong here. I was wondering if there was any such thing as post-June melting momentum. I am remember it has been discussed previously, particularly during the melting season of 2016, when July made up for any lack of any May-June melting momentum.

Clear skies and high temperatures after 21-22 June  lasting until 15-20th July can also provide similar melting momentum. I remember Neven posted some criteria on how a perfect/ice-free Arctic melting season would unfold.

My question is whether 2019 could be a 'model' year towards such perfect melting season in which both pre-June and post-June melting momentum play a role.

If June was a 'heck of a month', can July be another 'heck of a month'?

Not calling you out personally but you are the third person to bring up July 2016 Being a big melt month.

But it wasn't very warm

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3697 on: July 11, 2019, 06:33:28 AM »
But I think the Beaufort will melt out this year regardless of all the export it received

I'm not sure this is fully logical. The ice feeding into the Beaufort comes via the gyre. Unless there's something that will stop that, so long as there is ice in the central basin there should be at least some ice in the Beaufort, no? It may even be the case during a true BOE it's the last place ice exists, caught up in the vortex. The ice just north of Greenland and Ellesmere tends to end up going out the Fram or down the Nares, but the stuff further north tends to get shunted back towards Beaufort.

Hmmm...

Sourabh

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3698 on: July 11, 2019, 06:53:52 AM »
Melting momentum discussed on the forum mainly focuses on May-June period, though I could be wrong here. I was wondering if there was any such thing as post-June melting momentum. I am remember it has been discussed previously, particularly during the melting season of 2016, when July made up for any lack of any May-June melting momentum.

Clear skies and high temperatures after 21-22 June  lasting until 15-20th July can also provide similar melting momentum. I remember Neven posted some criteria on how a perfect/ice-free Arctic melting season would unfold.

My question is whether 2019 could be a 'model' year towards such perfect melting season in which both pre-June and post-June melting momentum play a role.

If June was a 'heck of a month', can July be another 'heck of a month'?

Not calling you out personally but you are the third person to bring up July 2016 Being a big melt month.

But it wasn't very warm

I apologize if I mixed years. I remember reading it on the forum that some year. I checked JAXA extent and it could be 2015 or 2018 if not 2016 that remained nearly average year until July. Then, the melting rates increased. That year did not experience any specific ' big event' that contributed to higher melting.

So, my point was whether 2019 might be a new normal, where without any 'big or momorable events' (PAC/GAC/Dipoles), the minimum extent would be reached. Also, I wanted to understand whether there is such thing as 'post June' melting momentum.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3699 on: July 11, 2019, 07:05:30 AM »
But I think the Beaufort will melt out this year regardless of all the export it received

I'm not sure this is fully logical. The ice feeding into the Beaufort comes via the gyre. Unless there's something that will stop that, so long as there is ice in the central basin there should be at least some ice in the Beaufort, no? It may even be the case during a true BOE it's the last place ice exists, caught up in the vortex. The ice just north of Greenland and Ellesmere tends to end up going out the Fram or down the Nares, but the stuff further north tends to get shunted back towards Beaufort.

Hmmm...
The gyre isn't always active, and some years did manage to clear out the Beaufort, for example 2016 and 2012. This year export was quite vigorous, but recently died down. So it depends on the weather.