1. The CAA in 2012 almost entirely melted out.
This summer we are not going to come anywhere near that.
...
even if we do it still probably won't be enough to bring us within a hundred thousand of 2012 extent wise in the CAA.
Its likely 2019 finishes at least 150K higher in extent than 2012. Maybe more.
I'm not sure I agree about this - the CAA may well end up with more ice than 2012 but I can't see that being a clincher. Seasonal reduction in SIE has only just started in the CAA so it's a bit early to make any definite pronouncements on the results there, and the difference between the various years' minimum is only in the region of a couple of 100k, maybe 5% at most of the expected minimum for the entire Arctic.
Even a small change in wind direction in the CAB proper can increase/decrease SIE by that amount.
2. The Beaufort/SW CAB is going to be a major road block. 2012 was much warmer in that region than 2019 so far and through July 28th.
Within a few days the wind looks like it will start a fairly consistent push northwards in the Beaufort, with a growing low-pressure over the Laptev/ESS area. So SIE in the Beaufort might drop quite sharply without much more melt in that area?
I think 2019 finishes second to 2012.
I tend to agree, but it's still (fairly) early days, and exciting things might still happen in the next couple of months even if the foreacasts for the next week or two don't seem all that melti-inducing.
As for the forecasts, I'm actually quite lost in all your images, Friv. I can understand (I think) that the general spread and relative size of the red vs. the blue areas tell you something very important, but I'm totally lost as to what it is. Expertise is a fantastic thing, but if you had time to put some effort into explaining your images (perhaps in a seperate thread, and not every time) I for one would be extremely thankful.