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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3750 on: July 11, 2019, 07:38:45 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.

We haven't had that peak Insolation hit the CAB

A new record is unlikely.




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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3751 on: July 11, 2019, 07:41:03 PM »
But it seems that after Slater's death in 2016, someone else has taken over, and the Slater map has been oversimplified.  The map is now lumping together grid points with the same concentration and does NOT take into account the location of the grid points (e.g. whether they are in Hudson Bay or rather in the Central Arctic).

This was discussed last year too:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg158317.html#msg158317

Wow, if that is the case, they should pull the plug on the Slater model, or at least take his name off of it.  Failing to differentiate between Hudson Bay and CAB grid points seems like malpractice and an insult to Slater's legacy. 

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3752 on: July 11, 2019, 07:57:47 PM »
Temperature anomalies for the first 40 days of summer (anomalies from -4 to +4 with an interval of 1).

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3753 on: July 11, 2019, 08:03:17 PM »
Wow...I was looking at the satellite imagery and didn't realize that the entire state of Alaska is just completely engulfed in smoke. I've never seen it so bad there :(

pls!

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3754 on: July 11, 2019, 08:09:46 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.

We haven't had that peak Insolation hit the CAB

A new record is unlikely.

If I may throw in some data, the superficy on Earth northward of 80°N is around 4.1 millions squared kilometers and superficy northward of 81°N around 3.3 millions squared kilometers.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/polar.v33.21249

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3755 on: July 11, 2019, 08:14:50 PM »
First post from a non-scientific lurker. This site is an amazing resource - thanks to everyone posting such great information and keeping it mostly readable for a neophyte!

I have been spending a lot of time looking at the Worldview arctic images and specifically noting the march north of consistent small open water around flows from the Beaufort into the CAB. Since the end of June these have advanced from around 79N to about 82N. I am assuming this is due to the continual 'export' of ice into the Beaufort from the CAB, but to me indicates that there is no longer enough CAB ice to 'fill in' for that exported ice. People discuss 'false' extent/area drops based on melt ponding, but these small gaps are not ponds but actual open water. I don't know how much of these small areas are actually being picked up by extent/area calculations.

I also see these gaps showing up with greater frequency north of the other export routes - Fram and Barents to a lesser extent and wonder if the large gaps that appeared at the NE of Greenland is a result of a dividing line of Fram export vs. westward drift in the rest of the ice N of Greenland.

My personal conclusion from this is that while earlier in the season export seemed to be driven by a general arctic basin shift toward the Atlantic side, the current situation is that there is no longer 'replenishment' of the CAB ice and the crash in Asian/Eastern European side ice is melt driven and not as much 'compaction north'.
Welcome. You are spot on with your analysis and conclusion.

Pavel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3756 on: July 11, 2019, 09:47:25 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.

We haven't had that peak Insolation hit the CAB

A new record is unlikely.
Almost all ice North of 80 in the Laptev side is the FYI. It can melt out even if it Will stay in the High Arctic. Also we'll have early melt of the peripheral seas, the highest SST, more killing zones for the CAB ice that Will drift to the south. The melting season can Last longer due to the Ocean extra heat accumulated + more possibility of strong storms

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3757 on: July 11, 2019, 10:01:46 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.<snip>
Almost all ice North of 80 in the Laptev side is the FYI. <snip>
While I think a new record is still in play, Friv has a point.  The preconditioning the rest of the Arctic got did not hit the CAB anywhere near as hard, and the amount of insolation it's getting now is going to decline rapidly over the next two weeks.

It will have to be other forces that break down the CAB.  If they emerge, we'll have a new record.  If not, I think we'll have a new 2nd lowest melt season.
This space for Rent.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3758 on: July 11, 2019, 10:08:50 PM »
I don't think I saw an image of the poor state of the ess today so here is worldview aqua modis, jul11.  https://go.nasa.gov/2XBiJsm
I wasn't expecting clear weather with the heat.
edit: The CAB starting to get a shake up tomorrow. We should get an idea of how solid it is.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 10:29:15 PM by uniquorn »

Capt Kiwi

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3759 on: July 11, 2019, 10:28:17 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.

We haven't had that peak Insolation hit the CAB

A new record is unlikely.

Am I misreading one of these two outlooks?


I don't know this isn't like The Great Arctic cyclone but the heat that's in the ice and heat that is around the ice is unprecedented so maybe this week or Vortex will be enough to stir things up to cause some collapse.

2019 is going to come very close to a new record.


Sambuccu

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3760 on: July 11, 2019, 10:30:28 PM »
Slater model update. Not much of a change, projecting 4,26 M sq km extent by Aug 30, 2019.

Looking at the map, this is all way too optimistic IMHO. It still has >10% on ice in Baffin and Hudson. It sees ice near Svalbard with high confidence. IDK...

This map looks like current map. Not end of august forecast map.

You do understand this is the current map with the survival probability plotted. Only the blue will survive by end of August and that is the maps prediction

Oh, ok, sorry.


petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3761 on: July 11, 2019, 10:40:52 PM »
I was wondering why there isn't more chatter about this storm the coming days?

I'm watching closely too.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3762 on: July 11, 2019, 10:45:23 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.

We haven't had that peak Insolation hit the CAB

A new record is unlikely.

Am I misreading one of these two outlooks?


I don't know this isn't like The Great Arctic cyclone but the heat that's in the ice and heat that is around the ice is unprecedented so maybe this week or Vortex will be enough to stir things up to cause some collapse.

2019 is going to come very close to a new record.

As W. W. said “Do I contradict myself? Very well, then I contradict myself, I am large, I contain multitudes.”
I think Friv is pondering many factors as most of us I guess, and ultimately nobody has certainty of what’s gonna happen, not even next week.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3763 on: July 11, 2019, 10:59:27 PM »
Looking at the map, this is all way too optimistic IMHO.

I think so too.

We should expect that eventually the model will systematically diverge from observations as data upon which it is based becomes outdated. Two main categories of error come to mind: 1. Ice concentration would only be a good proxy of other key ice properties under certain conditions, such as distributions of volume / thickness, density, floe size. On average, at a given concentration, if the ice is weaker than the reference period it will be less likely to survive. 2. Environmental conditions are also diverging from the reference period. Even if the ice were as strong as then (and it isn't), more of it will melt if there are higher SSTs, more storms, etc.

PS. We really need to make a Slater model thread. Every few weeks there's a new round of the same misconceptions posted.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 11:04:49 PM by petm »

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3764 on: July 11, 2019, 11:05:28 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.

We haven't had that peak Insolation hit the CAB

A new record is unlikely.
I think this ties in with Friv's previous point about the CAA. Of course you can have a new record without zeroing the CAA, but it makes the task much harder. 2012 got its extreme record, beyond weather of course, by being very efficient. All peripheral seas went to zero, CAA was 50k, and the CAB ice was compacted into the most protected region around the pole and below to the CAA/Ellesmere/Greenland border. So 2012 focused on the easier ice. This is also how it managed a late refreeze date. 2016 OTOH tried for the big prize, and attacked the ice around the pole. This brought CAB area nearly to 2012 levels, but extent was much higher. Then those lower concentration regions around the pole were hit by a very early refreeze, and the season was done despite continued melting in the peripherals.
This year should find the pole region easier than in 2016 - more FYI due to winter export, and more heat in the Arctic after brutal June. But it will still be a difficult task.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3765 on: July 11, 2019, 11:29:54 PM »
It's just a huge task.

Here is 2012 on September 14th.

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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3766 on: July 11, 2019, 11:31:40 PM »
    I'm inclined to continue to compare .
    2007 ,12 and 16 have happened .. look on Worldview .. you can see how record seasons progressed melt and weatherwise . There is little doubt this year , that given it's quality , all ice N of 85' could be gone at seasons end ; but that still does depend on the weather .
   2012 ended the season with quality ice from pole to CAB to G'land ( it also ended up with very little else ) . Quality ice is a scarce commodity this year .
 btw .. in case anyone misses it , the old gfs forecast is still available on meteociel .. b.c.
 


  ps ^^^ thanks Friv for the image .. it shows exactly how much the ice N. of 80' is under threat
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 11:39:08 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Gumbercules

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3767 on: July 12, 2019, 12:08:43 AM »
The last frame shows clearly extensive bluing (melt ponding?) of the ice. Looks like serious poof to some come.
Most of the 'bluing' is from the amsr2 layer, indicating lower concentration ice, slightly darker due to the contrast adjustment, but it is still bad news.

The entire ice cap looks bluer. It doesn't seem possible that the entire cap would have changed color uniformly so quickly.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3768 on: July 12, 2019, 01:17:12 AM »
I'm watching closely too.

I've been following this low for a few days now, and unlike other predictions, this storm is lasting, but not strengthening too much, which is a good thing for the ice I guess. Let's hope it doesn't do too much damage! But I'm guessing that the ice next to the open water in the laptev will get a big hit?

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3769 on: July 12, 2019, 01:39:01 AM »
It's just a huge task.

Here is 2012 on September 14th.

Yep, that stuff is hard to melt. One thing that will help is that the Laptev bite is significantly more progressed than in 2012. The edge of the bite is already at 80N. I still say this is the year we see open water at the pole proper, just due to the high temps and how advanced the decay is from the Russian side of the pole.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3770 on: July 12, 2019, 02:19:16 AM »
July 6-10.

2018.

Your gifs are awesome Aluminum. Thank you.

It'd be great to see a longer period, like say the past 2 weeks, as an MP4 or other movie format, which are much more memory efficient

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3771 on: July 12, 2019, 02:45:47 AM »
Perhaps the CAB has copped less sunshine than in 2012, but DMI 80N temps have been warmer so far this melt season than 2012, despite the Atlantic front being further south. We had record melt fractions on the ice in June. And there's the insane SSTs, still increasing, providing energy for storminess (Substantial areas of the Chukchi are now  10-11C on Windy TV, has that ever been seen before?). And there's a lot of FYI all the way to the pole. We are currently record low by extent area and volume, and there is substantial momentum, at least for the next while.

I wasn't paying attention in 2012 so I don't have a feel for it like some others here. But I don't think a record can be discounted as yet, and I'm pretty sure we'll still be well ahead of 2012 when it takes its next big plunge in about 2 weeks

I've attached DMI charts for 2012 and 2019 so far

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3772 on: July 12, 2019, 02:49:26 AM »
I'm guessing that the ice next to the open water in the laptev will get a big hit?

I'm guessing the same. Maybe other areas too.

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3773 on: July 12, 2019, 02:56:57 AM »
2012 also saw extreme atlantification as Frivs image shows and seeing as this year's ice edge in the Atlantic seems more reluctant to melt(mainly because of a lack of southerly winds) then that may help to avoid record lows as well as lack of diversion in the CAB. All that said as others have said, heat in the oceans could play a huge part in this melt season and an extent under 4 million imo is still newsworthy.

How this low pressure system plays out could be crucial, will it actually slow down melt or is it too little to late?

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3774 on: July 12, 2019, 03:02:20 AM »
It'd be great to see a longer period
I've been posting longer versions of the NIC colored version once in a while, if that helps (links to the 2 most recent below).


PS. Why is everyone so focussed on extent?

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3775 on: July 12, 2019, 03:26:22 AM »
It's just a huge task.

Here is 2012 on September 14th.

There's not much more 100% concentration ice on today's map than in 2012 after the massive compression against Greenland and CAA that ended the 2012 season and made its minimum so strikingly low. And a lot of this years high concentration ice is in areas that are likely to melt out or go close, north of the Laptev and ESS, or on the Atlantic front. There's a persistenr region showing lower concentration close to the pole, though its difficult to know for sure, that area has been constantly cloudy. But the holes are not difficult to find on worldview in the pack north of the Beaufort sea, and rest of Pacific and Siberian sectors. The pack could look very ragged and ugly come September, even (particularly?) if there's no new record

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3776 on: July 12, 2019, 03:43:49 AM »
2012 also saw extreme atlantification as Frivs image shows and seeing as this year's ice edge in the Atlantic seems more reluctant to melt(mainly because of a lack of southerly winds) .....

I'm glad that you brought up the Atlantic. Such a big factor, but lightly discussed so far this season.

Not an expert, but on the surface it seems that the Atlantic front this year is further east due to the constant export of ice toward the Atlantic. In this regard, 2019 has been extremely efficient.

When the Atlantic moves further west as the season progresses, it will find less concentrated ice in front of it as a result of the earlier season export. How far and fast it goes is a mystery, but the potential seems to be there

The Atlantic side has progressed well through Baffin Bay and is currently chipping away at the eastern entrance to the CAA.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3777 on: July 12, 2019, 04:17:44 AM »
I have been saying this for a few weeks now, and every time I do, very smart people tell me I’m silly and the ice in the Beaufort is moving into a kill zone and will melt out soon.

But it has still not happened.  I’m still thinking this might be a record year, but it won’t happen unless the Beaufort clears out.  We are now in mid-July and it is quickly running out of time. 

The Beaufort is the key to whether or not we hit a record.  If it warms up and melts all of that ice quickly, I agree we have a good chance of a new record. But, if all of those chunks of ice continue swirling around for a couple of more weeks, I think it will be hard for this year to beat 2012.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3778 on: July 12, 2019, 04:54:51 AM »
We are now in mid-July and it is quickly running out of time. 
Sorry but that is not true. Look at animations of past years.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3779 on: July 12, 2019, 05:03:38 AM »
Those animations don’t really address my point.  I’m sure a lot more melting will happen. The question is whether or not it will beat 2012.

In order for this year to beat 2012 it has a lot of catch up in the Beaufort and CAA.  Maybe it happens, maybe not.  I still think this year has a better than 50% chance of setting the new record. 

However, the Beaufort is a huge potential heat sink that was turned on in 2012 and not so far this year.


UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3780 on: July 12, 2019, 05:26:34 AM »
I have been saying this for a few weeks now, and every time I do, very smart people tell me I’m silly and the ice in the Beaufort is moving into a kill zone and will melt out soon.

But it has still not happened.  I’m still thinking this might be a record year, but it won’t happen unless the Beaufort clears out.  We are now in mid-July and it is quickly running out of time. 

The Beaufort is the key to whether or not we hit a record.  If it warms up and melts all of that ice quickly, I agree we have a good chance of a new record. But, if all of those chunks of ice continue swirling around for a couple of more weeks, I think it will be hard for this year to beat 2012.
I was surprised myself at the ice in the Beaufort given the SSTs and the fact that none of the wavy lines of melting ice were trailing off the large flows but that has been changing over the past week. I do not know exactly how those wavy lines are generated and whether the flow needs to reach a certain reduce thickness or if the SST needs to reach a certain level above freezing, but whatever it is, it has begun and the blocks appear to be on their way to oblivion - and they still have two months to go. I do not think they will last.

It is interesting to note that that same wavy ice edge exists on almost ever km of exposed ice around the whole pack including finally on the northern edges of the Barents ice suggesting the Atlantic heat is finally arriving. The heat in the Laptev is already hitting the ice north of 80N as well. And in the Kara as well which has been colder than some previous years

And while the CAA has been slower to start there are some significant sections of open water in the middle of the channels to go with the loses showing on both the Baffin and Amundsen edges.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3781 on: July 12, 2019, 05:43:08 AM »
After cyclone in a couple of few days, I only care about how many ice will be disintegrated in the arctic basin. Now I DO NOT care about the insolation. It should be a great chance that disintegrated ice will melt out in septemeber because there are almost 2 month left to melt. So let us see what is left after several days cyclone weather.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3782 on: July 12, 2019, 05:58:01 AM »
After cyclone in a couple of few days, I only care about how many ice will be disintegrated in the arctic basin. Now I DO NOT care about the insolation. It should be a great chance that disintegrated ice will melt out in septemeber because there are almost 2 month left to melt. So let us see what is left after several days cyclone weather.

That cyclone isn't going to do shit.

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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3783 on: July 12, 2019, 06:23:59 AM »
Looks like there was almost no extent loss in Hudson's Bay, and that led to a much lower drop in JAXA today.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3784 on: July 12, 2019, 09:55:31 AM »
Laptev bite has reached 80°N now.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3785 on: July 12, 2019, 11:56:06 AM »
I have been saying this for a few weeks now, and every time I do, very smart people tell me I’m silly and the ice in the Beaufort is moving into a kill zone and will melt out soon.

But it has still not happened.  I’m still thinking this might be a record year, but it won’t happen unless the Beaufort clears out.  We are now in mid-July and it is quickly running out of time. 

The Beaufort is the key to whether or not we hit a record.  If it warms up and melts all of that ice quickly, I agree we have a good chance of a new record. But, if all of those chunks of ice continue swirling around for a couple of more weeks, I think it will be hard for this year to beat 2012.

"Top surface melt" season has reached its peak for sure, but "bottom melt" season is only just beginning and often chews through a lot of ice in late July and in August. With such open water between the ice floes in the past 2 weeks or so, a lot of solar energy has been soaked up by the upper ocean layer, so everything is in place for an intense "bottom melt season" in the Beaufort...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3786 on: July 12, 2019, 12:33:33 PM »
Regarding bottom melt in the Beaufort. whoi itp103 is currently tethered to one of the many floes north of the mclure strait. Two microcats are mounted at 6m and 7m depth which measure temperature, salinity and pressure. Temperature has risen significantly over the past week while salinity has dropped (not shown, please see https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163356 )

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3787 on: July 12, 2019, 12:34:43 PM »
Hi Nightvid Cole!

Bottom melt can do fantastic damage to ice as we saw north of Greenland in Aug 2012 but worse than that is when floes drop below 100m and 'side melt' exceeds 'bottom melt' in the taking of ice.

With the pack moving toward ever smaller floes (due to winter conditioning) we are approaching a time where, for the same amount of energy available, we see greater melt.

I worry we are moving toward a point where the ice will not be able to withstand an 'average' weather year?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3788 on: July 12, 2019, 12:42:10 PM »
After cyclone in a couple of few days, I only care about how many ice will be disintegrated in the arctic basin. Now I DO NOT care about the insolation. It should be a great chance that disintegrated ice will melt out in septemeber because there are almost 2 month left to melt. So let us see what is left after several days cyclone weather.

That cyclone isn't going to do shit.

Well said!!! Now if you come back and say it WILL do shit...I may start to worry about the frizz affecting the Friv...lol

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3789 on: July 12, 2019, 12:58:48 PM »
It's almost ideal ring of winds.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3790 on: July 12, 2019, 02:02:16 PM »
Regarding bottom melt in the Beaufort. whoi itp103 is currently tethered to one of the many floes north of the mclure strait. Two microcats are mounted at 6m and 7m depth which measure temperature, salinity and pressure. Temperature has risen significantly over the past week while salinity has dropped (not shown, please see https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163356 )

Heat from the sun has entered the top layers of the ocean water there.


Although it's not very much.  Thsts enough to do about 1-1.5cm of bottom melt a day.

This is why I don't believe a new record is coming.

There is just about no chance that ice melts out.

I thought for a while that it was possible but the most recent push of heat into the Western CAB/Beaufort it's to underwhelming.


And the weather forecasts are very good for protection of the ice.

Expecially the Beaufort region after day 4-5.

I think this year will finish in the top 3.

But over coming the CAA, Beaufort, and Western CAB.

No way and the Atlantic side has seen almost no Southerly WAA.

The Laptev and ESS could make a push towards the pole with open water tho.


« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 02:08:02 PM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3791 on: July 12, 2019, 02:17:10 PM »
The cyclone in the next couple days may be too weak to do much damage, except perhaps in some localized spots like the eastern Laptev bite. Or the ice may be too weak to withstand even a not-very-strong storm. Even if the former, it looks like there are more and perhaps stronger coming. Will be interesting to watch. (Next one forecast in a week, att.)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3792 on: July 12, 2019, 03:03:05 PM »
The cyclone in the next couple days may be too weak to do much damage, except perhaps in some localized spots like the eastern Laptev bite. Or the ice may be too weak to withstand even a not-very-strong storm.

I agree. The cyclone seems to be weakening now, so the damage shouldn't be too bad.
Will a storm like this bring rain, or snow?

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3793 on: July 12, 2019, 03:29:10 PM »
Regarding bottom melt in the Beaufort. whoi itp103 is currently tethered to one of the many floes north of the mclure strait. Two microcats are mounted at 6m and 7m depth which measure temperature, salinity and pressure. Temperature has risen significantly over the past week while salinity has dropped (not shown, please see https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163356 )
That buoy is floating around, but it may be a local thing

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3794 on: July 12, 2019, 03:30:16 PM »
Laptev bite has reached 80°N now.

Well...the bite ate 80 a week ago. It is now at 80.5!
big time oops

LDorey

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3795 on: July 12, 2019, 03:42:08 PM »


PS. Why is everyone so focussed on extent?

It misses volume and and disguise the true state of the ice (though the importance of allbedo should not be ignored), on the other hand it's a consistent ( as in we have relatively consistent records spanning decades) reliable (aside from melt ponds and cloud noise, otoh the 5 day averages do a decent job of smoothing those) measurent of the state of the ice, and it's relatively easy to measure, volume would be much better but MUCH harder to measure, the issue with the discrepancy with cyrostat and piomass comes to mind where cyrostat it turns out has problems with snow cover....and was just wrong and the only reason anyone really seemed to notice was because the model indicated something was wonky....

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3796 on: July 12, 2019, 03:43:14 PM »
Although it's not very much.  Thsts enough to do about 1-1.5cm of bottom melt a day. This is why I don't believe a new record is coming. There is just about no chance that ice melts out.
And the weather forecasts are very good for protection of the ice.
Expecially the Beaufort region after day 4-5.
I think this year will finish in the top 3.
But over coming the CAA, Beaufort, and Western CAB.
No way and the Atlantic side has seen almost no Southerly WAA.
The Laptev and ESS could make a push towards the pole with open water tho.
As you probably know, shallow water temperatures are unlikely to rise much below a buoy tethered to an ice floe, due to melt. (others here may not)
But what about the previously mentioned WAA over the CAA, that is likely to open up the nonsense CAA/CAB crack again? Possibly along the whole length of the CAA this time. And while the cyclone may do s**t, might it help draw all the 'thick' ice north while pushing the FYI ice south towards laptev and ess, making it unlikely that they will 'push to the pole' over the next few days.
Southerlies from the atlantic side will turn up sooner or later and when they do there will likely be plenty of compaction with some melt.
Not looking for a new record here, just wishing that many of the comments weren't so focussed on it.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3797 on: July 12, 2019, 03:49:39 PM »
The arctic storms are very unimpressive. They will bring cooler weather and less insolation but the winds will not be strong enough or persistent enough to cause upwelling and melting. It's still warm so they may bring some rain, not snow, but again, the amounts will be unimpressive.

The late season melting in 2012 was unique. This early melting season's stratospheric subsidence over the pole was the strongest on record so this year is still in contention with 2012, but we should keep in mind how exceptional 2012 was.

At this point the weather forecasts look good for the ice - nothing like the GAC. Moreover, the breakdown of anticyclonic winds that have caused strong ice export into the Fram, is good for the ice.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3798 on: July 12, 2019, 06:15:44 PM »
I think the weather would have to return to not only ridging but a dipole anomaly by no later than July 25th to have a shot at the record.

It just doesn't look like that is happening.

But I guess you never know.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3799 on: July 12, 2019, 06:18:01 PM »
I think the weather would have to return to not only ridging but a dipole anomaly by no later than July 25th to have a shot at the record.

It just doesn't look like that is happening.

But I guess you never know.

Predicting the weather 2 weeks out. Cool.
big time oops