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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3850 on: July 13, 2019, 10:54:55 PM »
Ice thickness now and in 5 days from the same model as above.

(The images are not exactly the same size, so it's a bit hard to watch but worth it I think.)

Click to animate.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3851 on: July 13, 2019, 10:58:56 PM »
The weather forecasts look great for dramatically slowing ice melt compared to what we have seen most of the summer.

I agree, compared to previous weeks the D1-D6weather forecast is much more benign for the ice. It's what I call the neither-fish-nor-flesh set-up, no extremely large and intense high-pressure areas, and no cyclones to speak of to stir things up.

Still, I'm seeing a couple of things in the forecast (see attached). First of all, that relatively weak, but persistent cyclone over the ESS (more or less), exactly over the part of the ice pack that looks the worst. Second, a moderate high over the Kara/Barentsz, where according to PIOMAS the thicker ice is. And third, those two combining as a sort of flipped, upside down Dipole, resulting in a tight band of isobars, that even though blowing the wrong way, will have some dispersing effect in the Laptev Bite region.

But, most importantly, this:

Easy to forget that 2012 had below average heights and temperatures over almost the entire basin from July 13th through the 26th, yet still produced significant drops due to all the preconditioning of the pack in June and early July.

Exactly, I wrote about it extensively at the end of July on the ASIB: ASI 2012 update 8: it shouldn't, but it does

From the conclusion:

Quote
With ice that doesn't seem to care what the weather does and warm temperatures in many places above and below the ice, it's no wonder that SIE and SIA keep decreasing steadily. This melting season doesn't resemble 2007 in any way really, but 2012 is keeping up with the tempo easily. The longer the weather stays like this, the stronger the evidence becomes that the ice is thinner than it has been for a long, long time.

I wasn't really aware of the concept of melting momentum yet, and only developed it in the years after 2012. I thought it had everything to do with thickness. This year, volume is similar to 2012, though thickness distribution is very different. And melting momentum seems worse than 7 years ago (Dr Schröder just sent me his melt pond fraction maps for June).

Even though I'm emotionally invested in a new record, I'm actually thrilled with this test for melting momentum. The coming two weeks will be extremely interesting to watch.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3852 on: July 13, 2019, 11:01:40 PM »
The heat has to travel much farther and faster (away from shore) than it has previously in order to maintain the melting. momentum. Otherwise, we're looking at a relatively inert body of warm water.

It really couldn't be much closer. (maybe I drew the area a little too far west, since it is overlapping with some ice. but that kinda proves the point.)
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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3853 on: July 13, 2019, 11:12:25 PM »
<edit Neven: Why do you respond to a comment I snipped? Your text is copied as well, but the discussion is pretty fruitless.>

...because I hadn't seen that it was snipped before I responded. Thanks.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 11:30:47 PM by Rich »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3854 on: July 13, 2019, 11:13:43 PM »
Reiterating my speculative prediction of Arctic Ice Island for September 2019. Although it will probably me more of a Peninsula with ice and land contacting only for about 800 km centered around Nares.

The western 3/4 of the CAA has been lifted off for several weeks and the short term forecast is for more liftoff and plenty of warmth.
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Dr Freeze

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3855 on: July 13, 2019, 11:38:53 PM »
So Be cause, has at the bottom of his posts 2007-2012-2016-2019?  which clearly indicated top melt years 5, then 4 then 3 years apart.  the majority of contributors think that 2019 will a top 3 year for area.  If so does that make the prediction correct, and if so does that make the next record melt year 2021?

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3856 on: July 13, 2019, 11:52:07 PM »
So Be cause, has at the bottom of his posts 2007-2012-2016-2019?  which clearly indicated top melt years 5, then 4 then 3 years apart.  the majority of contributors think that 2019 will a top 3 year for area.  If so does that make the prediction correct, and if so does that make the next record melt year 2021?

Seems legit 🤔

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3857 on: July 14, 2019, 12:01:11 AM »
Then 2022 another record of ZERO at min. Basic math. Totally made up, but I like it.
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UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3858 on: July 14, 2019, 12:11:21 AM »
The weather forecasts look great for dramatically slowing ice melt compared to what we have seen most of the summer.

Yep. And we've melted off most of the easier to melt ice.

At end of May we had 6.7M km2 of ice (area) outside the CAB and 3.0M km2 inside the CAB.

Now we have 2.8M km2 inside and 2.8M km2 outside.

The degree of difficulty in melt is increasing as the easy stuff on the shallow perimeter has shrunk considerably.
Isn't this primarily the same equation that exists at this time of year for every melt year, good or bad? Very few years have had any significant reduction in actual CAB ice by July 12 and probably none where the atlantic front is not the leading region of melt. The melt out of the 'easy ice' around the CAB happens every year and results somewhere around July 10th in a very similar remainder of 50% CAB and 50% other seas.

The bigger questions are 'how easy' is the remaining ice and in the 2012 record year there was almost 0 ice remaining in Hudson, Barents, or Kara where 2019 still has a lot of 'easy ice' and the conditions of the remaining ice on the Asian side (ESS, Chukchi, and Laptev looks 'easier' than it did in 2012. The CAB itself with less MYI since 2012 also looks 'easier' even if the Atlantic side of the CAB is not as exposed at this time.

How good the PIOMAS data is might be questionable but the number at the end of June suggests 2019 had on that date the 'easiest' remaining ice to melt and the best 'momentum'. The first part of July hasn't changed that perspective in my view.

Weather during the next 45 days will have a huge effect. 2019 may slow like other years since 2012 but I think we still have a wide range of possible Sept conditions including a record or a more average 2010s minimum.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3859 on: July 14, 2019, 12:37:43 AM »
Laptev bite has reached 80°N now.

Well...the bite ate 80 a week ago. It is now at 80.5!

Along with the temperature drop, the main effect of this cyclone will be to push some sacrificial ice south into the Laptev bite, which will temper its advance north for now, and maybe lower SSTs a bit
...
I keep coming back to A-Team's May 23 post that shows six months of fairly steady transpolar drift.  This means all the ice between, basically, the North Pole and the East Siberian Sea (ESS) is first year ice (FYI) and therefore 'easy' to melt, except for that ice that is now in the highest latitudes (due to shortest melt season being there).  Does this make the possibility of a lot of it going 'poof' more likely than other years? I think so.  The Laptev Bite, being where some of this FYI was, may reach the NP, or at least closer to it than has happened in recent decades (centuries).
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3860 on: July 14, 2019, 01:05:53 AM »
I keep coming back to A-Team's May 23 post that shows six months of fairly steady transpolar drift.  This means all the ice between, basically, the North Pole and the East Siberian Sea (ESS) is first year ice (FYI) and therefore 'easy' to melt, except for that ice that is now in the highest latitudes (due to shortest melt season being there).  Does this make the possibility of a lot of it going 'poof' more likely than other years? I think so.  The Laptev Bite, being where some of this FYI was, may reach the NP, or at least closer to it than has happened in recent decades (centuries).

The comments about the CAB being protected are just silly.  The extent numbers are higher in the CAB because the ice keeps getting exported through the Greenland/Svalbard/FJL line. Once that ice passes that line, it is toast.  Even if it takes a while to melt. 

The Russian side is going to bite deep towards the pole.  Even in this “moderate” weather there is a lot of heat in Siberia.

It is going to come down to whether or not the Beaufort starts clearing out quick.  The line of open water north of the CAA indicates that if it does, the ice could become an ice island this year.

If that happens, look out! 

We don’t know what the weather will bring in the next few weeks.  But, we do know the MYI is significantly lower this year than it was in 2012.  The fact that the ice is being exported to the Atlantic does not help matters, even if it helps keep the extent numbers higher. 



Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3861 on: July 14, 2019, 01:11:39 AM »


The bigger questions are 'how easy' is the remaining ice and in the 2012 record year there was almost 0 ice remaining in Hudson, Barents, or Kara where 2019 still has a lot of 'easy ice' and the conditions of the remaining ice on the Asian side (ESS, Chukchi, and Laptev looks 'easier' than it did in 2012. The CAB itself with less MYI since 2012 also looks 'easier' even if the Atlantic side of the CAB is not as exposed at this time.


The Chuchki, ESS and Laptev may be easier at this point in time than the same regions in July 2012, but we know that 2012 ultimately delivered in those regions so at best we break even.

2012 was way ahead when it comes to the Beaufort and Atlantic and we know with hindsight that it melted out the CAA as well.

No doubt 2019 was ahead at June 30. But not by much and 2012 had an absolutely sensational finish.

Is an equally sensational finish in the cards for 2019? Very low probability.

Edit: To make quotation ownership more obvious. It was accurate, but confusing on the first pass.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 04:21:01 AM by Rich »

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3862 on: July 14, 2019, 01:35:31 AM »
If UCMiami says there is a “very low probability” of a sensational finish in 2019, then I would say he is just guessing.

But I have read through his post history a couple of times now, and I do not see where he said what you quoted. 



Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3863 on: July 14, 2019, 02:00:42 AM »
Rich, you just edited your post to make it accurate.  When you do that you are supposed to say, “Sorry I messed up with the quotations.”   

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3864 on: July 14, 2019, 02:10:44 AM »
Easy to forget that 2012 had below average heights and temperatures over almost the entire basin from July 13th through the 26th, yet still produced significant drops due to all the preconditioning of the pack in June and early July. Even with below average temps at 850/925mb, the surface is still typically above freezing at this time of year. We may still see significant area drops even during the colder stretch. I would expect to -- given that it will be warmer over the CAB during this period than it was during 2012.

As long as the -NAO pattern sticks, it will be tough to keep cooler than normal temps over the CAB, CAA and Atlantic portion of the basin.

The -nao and bridging over the North American side does argue that the return of warmer sunny conditions come back over the Arctic basin.


however the look of the North Pacific with that huge
 high pressure system conflicts with that
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3865 on: July 14, 2019, 02:44:45 AM »
The next 10 days will be warm in Greenland and cold in the eastern Siberian seas. The 850 prog exaggerates the cold anomaly compared to the surface cold anomaly, but it will give the recently torched areas of the ESS a cool change.

CSA Navy Wx has a point that 2012 had a few cool weeks in July but the "melting momentum" continued. The reversal in pressure gradients and wind directions will slow the area and extent losses for a few days but will lead to more losses on the Atlantic side as warm Atlantic water will push into the ice edge. The Beaufort sea will also see significant extent losses with the changes in wind direction.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3866 on: July 14, 2019, 02:45:21 AM »
It makes sense that the CAB is considered a "region" of the Arctic Ocean. It's right in the middle of a contiguous body of water. No brainier, right?

But for any meaningful analytical purpose, the properties of the CAB are so different from the rest of the Arctic that it makes no sense to combine the CAB with the rest of the Arctic. We should consider it a separate entity.

Lot's of excitement about a potential record setting year when you look at the #'s of the consolidated Arctic, but the CAB is saying not so fast.

Same with BOE projections that show we're losing 270km3 per year and causing people to predict a BOE in 10-15 years. Makes no sense to bundle the CAB and non-CAB together.

The rapid retreat of the ESS is exciting stuff, but that fire isn't burning into the CAB. It's going to take something exotic and different to take a heavy bite into the CAB. Possible? Yeah.

It does take a lot of work to melt the CAB but I don't think it will take anything special or "exotic" to do so.  It will be easy once everything around it is gone earlier in the season.  The heat will get to more easily and there will be more export.

Even before then you can look at how bad it was in 2012 and, more surprisingly, how awful it was in 2016.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4592

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3867 on: July 14, 2019, 03:18:12 AM »
This means all the ice between, basically, the North Pole and the East Siberian Sea (ESS) is first year ice (FYI) and therefore 'easy' to melt, except for that ice that is now in the highest latitudes (due to shortest melt season being there).  Does this make the possibility of a lot of it going 'poof' more likely than other years? I think so.  The Laptev Bite, being where some of this FYI was, may reach the NP, or at least closer to it than has happened in recent decades (centuries).

Ya, I think the past freezing season and this melting season should really make the "BOE is not happening for over a decade" people to rethink.

Nares and Fram export seems to be made easier due to ice mobility. The Pacific is rapidly encroaching. The Atlantic is likely encroaching as well, but it is not visible on the surface due to extra ice drift from increased mobility.

Also, in a decade we will probably be approaching 450 ppm CO2. (And Alaska will be having more luaus than Hawaii.)
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3868 on: July 14, 2019, 03:57:33 AM »
     The "percent of melt season completed by this date" values shown by gerontocrat in the Data thread are almost certainly still applicable in 2019.  Those values include prior years when there was a lot of ice above 80N, so that's not really a new factor this year.  And the daily Extent and Area average loss curves he shows also indicate that we are just past the peak of daily melt values, and that there is a solid month of high melt potential before things start slowing down after August 16. 

    Above my skill set, but my hunch is that there opportunity for more surprises in 2019 -- perhaps another Arctic dipole, a "stuck" system with high air, reinvigorated Fram transport, GAC II, or something I can't even think of.  All bets are off with a less tethered polar jet no longer keeping things organized.

     I learn from and enjoy the speculation about the current situation and what is left to occur between now and September, and beyond.  For predictive ability it seems that the simple extrapolations of cumulative remaining melt from this date to the minimum in previous years shown by gerontocrat are as good a predictor as we have, especially now that we are about 2/3 of the way through the melt season. 
 
     ...But now I'll contradict what I just said...  The thing that spooks me about 2019 is the terrible condition of the ice and the cumulative loss of MYI.  At some point, that has to have a compelling impact on September minimum.  Maybe not this year, but my guess is that there are not many years left before the cumulative damage reaches a tipping point whereby functional changes allow a big Arctic-wide cliff from a single driving cause, or a synergism of events.

     One other factor this year is a lot more Alaskan wild fires than usual.  With the persistent torching heat in Siberia in May and June, I would guess that fire activity is increased on that side in 2019 too.  Not surprisingly (though not necessary due to the fires) the Arctic albedo in 2019 is very low this year (=higher albedo warming potential), one more factor that affect the next month of high melt potential.



https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11072019/arctic-wildfires-alaska-climate-change-heat-wave-2019-university-funding

PS -- Does anybody know why the NSIDC ASI concentration image says "No Data"? I hope the beyond-its-rated-lifetime satellite isn't blinking out.  They still have the daily extent data up to date, so I don't think that is the problem. 
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 12:53:31 AM by Glen Koehler »

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3869 on: July 14, 2019, 11:23:18 AM »
17 hour loop centered at roughly 87.8° N, 68° W (I'm approximating here) lat,lon included with last image, latitude line is 87.5°N.  Contest slightly boosted for detail.  Looks like the CAB is forming some stretch marks.  A general motion towards the Atlantic is also seen.
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« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 12:12:18 PM by JayW »
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ajouis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3870 on: July 14, 2019, 11:32:33 AM »
Looking at the most current bremen amsr2 map, a few things stand out.
The ess is steadily “darkening” (losing concentration) and retreating, which will continue to provide sustained area losses for a while. The laptev bite is still widening towards the ess (helping its deeper collapse within less than 10 days?) and is crucially starting to also get bigger in the 80 north, possibly starting the race to the north pole that some here have predicted.
There is another torching of the greenland sea ice which might also contribute to losses if either the export stop or the cab can t sustain it anymore without showing visible signs of dispersion. Although expected, it is necessary to poin it out given the imminent loss of a few hundreds square kilometers there.
The more siberian side for the chuchki is headed for collapse with large patches of water visible, after a few days of preconditionning and lower retreat, it will soon fully eat onto the ess, precipitating collapse there in a domino effect.
The beaufort is looking rather poorly, not only because of the extending holes inside it, but also because the instabilities (read open water areas) that its dispersion created deep inside the pack are spreading towards the chuchki whose alaskan bite has now breached the 75 north parallel.
All in all, the pacific side looks pretty bad and worsening with each new amsr2. On the other hand, it looks like I was wrong about the cab/ kara blob, it will still remain for a while longer, but atlantification has started between svalbard and fjl islands, directly affecting the cab.
In other news, the Hudson is finally giving out, with very low concentration almost throughout, and despite some attack on the channels from the baffin, the caa looks to be little affected by melt, especially on the western side, maybe somewhat replenished by drifting floes from the beaufort?
So to conclude, pacification is getting worse and i think we will have the same result there as with the 2012 gac, but with no gac. Atlantification is also starting proper, but we have yet to see if it will be a decisive force this melting season. The cab is starting to get attacked in multiple sides, so the only real respite we have now is really only the western caa, but for how long

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3871 on: July 14, 2019, 01:48:52 PM »
Quote
Looking at the most current bremen amsr2 map, a few things stand out. 
Very good analysis.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3872 on: July 14, 2019, 02:32:56 PM »
It's still growing.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3873 on: July 14, 2019, 03:05:50 PM »
Slater update

The model has taken a dive, forecasting 3,87 M sq km for Sep 2, 2019

as we know only in 2012 did NSIDC extent dive under the 4 M sq km mark

For comparison, extent (in M sq km) on Sep 2 of

2012: 3,56
2016: 4,29
2007: 4,46

So based on this 2019 is almost guaranteed a second place, although I would not be surprised by a record as the model overestimated extent during all strong (preconditioned? melt mometum?) years (2007,12,16) by cca 0,5 M sq km.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3874 on: July 14, 2019, 05:11:41 PM »
This piece of last night's image extending from the Laptev bite toward the pole really disturbs me. It has that same fractal Mandelbrot-set-look it had the last time this open area expanded.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3875 on: July 14, 2019, 05:21:43 PM »
It's still growing.

This is the most important graph of the season!!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3876 on: July 14, 2019, 06:03:08 PM »
If nothing else, this melt season will run a little longer than usual. My guess is 2019 will get 2nd place.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3877 on: July 14, 2019, 06:09:46 PM »
Agreeing with Friv. The central cab--away from the coast lines--is much harder to melt out than coastal seas.  Graphs that people use pointing to a BOA do not consider this... Yes, they are all going down but this is the coastal areas collapsing, not the CAB.  Until we start seeing a Max a good 500K below record low, and seas like Laptev. Chukchi and Beafort collapsing in the middle of winter, we probably aren't going to 1 million K ie BOA.  As always, This False emergency trigger of BOA as if only it signals impending doom is greatly exaggerated.  2005 and 2011 were when mega disasters really kicked in.  For all we know, a BOA may actually lessen torrential flooding?!
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3878 on: July 14, 2019, 06:11:13 PM »
The model has taken a dive, forecasting 3,87 M sq km for Sep 2, 2019

This piece of last night's image extending from the Laptev bite toward the pole really disturbs me.

These 2 are related. In the last 2 days, the Slater model forecast for the upper Laptev bite dropped from 80% to below 50%. In addition, the whole Pacific side is retreating fast in this model.

As suspected, even weak lows may be enough to do notable damage.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3879 on: July 14, 2019, 06:29:29 PM »
ASMR2 recent history + weather notes

1) Another poster mentioned ESS, you can see how the system parked over this area has effectively given the ice a close shave. The dispersion on more inland ice even over a few days is quite dramatic. Since the system looks to be consistent for a few days, something to watch. NSIDC related 40k loss in area yesterday, i wouldn't be surprised if it's more today.
2) Beaufort looks like it's probably going to start seeing drops. Looks like the 24h change wasn't reflected in extent measurements, but it's noticeable. Low pressure system has moved on, melt may affect SSTs, abating some loss, but it is noticeably more damaged than July 12 AMSR. NSIDC area loss = 10k yesterday,
3) Laptev water is anomalously warm, system may even be slowing it down, but it looks like that system has also shaved a thinner route to Pole. ESS border ice affected by #1, so it will be interesting to see how these factors reflect extent tomorrow.
4)  Kara hasn't been as noticeable but SST anomalies are high, mini cyclone has probably dampened losses.
5) Water between FJL + Svalbard is warm, Atlantification persists. Haven't checked drift data, but it's probably having an effect.

Interesting case study given the conditions. Given trend of the system, ESS might just blow away

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3880 on: July 14, 2019, 06:43:33 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
As it has been since mid-May, combined #seaice extent in Chukchi & Beaufort Seas from @NSIDC is the lowest of record. Northern Alaskan coast increasingly clear of ice as the higher concentration ice beyond the barrier islands slowly melts. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe


petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3881 on: July 14, 2019, 06:44:38 PM »
IF (big if!) anything like this euro forecast for a week out comes to pass, the Beaufort could quickly implode.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3882 on: July 14, 2019, 06:57:32 PM »
July 1 to 13, 5-day lagging median.

Click to animate.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3883 on: July 14, 2019, 07:05:12 PM »
... BOA ...  BOA ...  BOA ... BOA ... .

A different acronym for Blue Ocean Event?
« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 07:44:40 PM by Burnrate »

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3884 on: July 14, 2019, 08:40:25 PM »
ASMR2 recent history + weather notes

<snippage> NSIDC related 40k loss in area yesterday, i wouldn't be surprised if it's more today.
<snippage> Kara hasn't been as noticeable but SST anomalies are high, mini cyclone has probably dampened losses.
<snippage> Given trend of the system, ESS might just blow away
Comparing the Chukchi/ESS/Laptev today to the shot I took 4 days ago, it is definitely disintegrating as I anticipated. 

Interior thinner FYI formed late in the season is breaking up leaving isolated thicker floes behind.

I think we'll continue to see 30-50k+ km2 area losses there for the next 10-14 days.

(first image, 7/10, second image, 7/14, middle of images approximately 72N, 160.5E)
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3885 on: July 14, 2019, 08:58:25 PM »
The talk of this BOE is absurd.

Just this past April there was a large area of 3-4M+ ice.

In 201 we saw the CAB get decimated but at least in the interior CAB it has completely recovered.

Melting out ice that thick is going to be impossible for one summer.

A fundemental change will have to take place for the Arctic to melt out.

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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3886 on: July 14, 2019, 09:07:35 PM »
The talk of this BOE is absurd.
Huh. Spoilsport.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3887 on: July 14, 2019, 09:19:06 PM »
We had a good view of the ice north of CAA yesterday. Click for detail. Slight contrast adjustment.
see https://go.nasa.gov/2XELlB0 for default view.

edmountain

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3888 on: July 14, 2019, 09:42:32 PM »
In terms of melting that multi-year ice in the CAA and CAB, I just noticed that CFS Alert, Nunavut, at the top of Ellesmere Island latitude 82°N and on the edge of the Arctic Ocean has today equaled their all-time record high of 20°C. This is just an hourly reading (and it reached it twice) so there's a very good chance of an all-time record.

https://weather.gc.ca/past_conditions/index_e.html?station=ylt

Further south on Ellesmere, Eureka has been well above average all month with a mean temperature of 8.6°C (normal 6.1°C). Eventually this heat will have an impact on the ice.


GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3889 on: July 14, 2019, 09:46:59 PM »
Agreeing with Friv. The central cab--away from the coast lines--is much harder to melt out than coastal seas.  Graphs that people use pointing to a BOA do not consider this... Yes, they are all going down but this is the coastal areas collapsing, not the CAB.

The the central CAB is a tough nut to crack for 2 reasons. First, it gets very little insolation and it all comes in a very short amount of amount of time which just doesn't allow much melt. Second, it is surrounded by ice and so the temperature is always low.

As the coastal areas start melting out sooner and sooner, the CAB will be able to get warmer and warmer. And as the coastal ice has weakened, the CABs mobility has increased, allowing more export.

For all we know, a BOA may actually lessen torrential flooding?!

What a straw-man / red-herring this is! The problem is simple: a BOA will change the climate EVERYWHERE in the northern hemisphere (where 90% of ppl live).
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3890 on: July 14, 2019, 09:48:09 PM »
We had a good view of the ice north of CAA yesterday.

Looks solid to me.  ;)
big time oops

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3891 on: July 14, 2019, 10:01:13 PM »
Agree 100% with Friv about the BOE. It is not going to happen.

2012 is on everyones lips here but most people forget that 2012 not only had extremely good preconditioning and melting momentum but also two "prepper" years as both 2011 and 2010 was.

Personally, I think 2019 will end up at place 2-5 depending on the weather conditions during the next month.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3892 on: July 14, 2019, 10:13:04 PM »
I don't want to see too much discussion of BOE and its implications. I'm happy no one announced a BOE this year.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3893 on: July 14, 2019, 10:14:13 PM »
According to ITP bouys.


There is a huge drop off in upper ocean heat the begins around 76N and finally sees almost all upper ocean heat available to melt ice vanish at 80N.

The profiles below are from South to North. I can only post 4 images.  So I'm not posting the locations of these itps.


You can take my word for it. 

The itps are running from:


74.5N
76N
80.5N
81N.


2. Things stand out:

Around 80N there is no melting heat in the upper ocean.

So there has been no bottom ice melt in the CAB North of 78/80N.

The other thing is the two Southern profiles show upper ocean temps the past 24 hours jumping up from negligible amounts of heat the would melt less than 1 cm a day on the bottom

To about 0.3-0.6C.

Which can melt 2.5-3CM a day.

This is from the recent push of heat on this region.

We will get a better idea of how much heat has dumped into the upper ocean in the beufort and far Western CAB


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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3894 on: July 14, 2019, 10:32:36 PM »
Friv, how does that compare to buoy data from 2012? Assuming that data is still around, and that there were buoys in similar locations.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3895 on: July 14, 2019, 11:20:09 PM »
Rather than rely on the profiles, lets look at the microcats mounted at a fixed 6m depth and also 7m where there are two. The salinity drops are likely to be associated with melting. As mentioned before, temperature directly beneath the floe is likely to be lower due to melt.
Buoys posted in the same order with gifs where there are two cats.
Note that itp103 hits 0C at 6m and 7m with large drops in salinity despite being slightly further north.
data thanks to woods hole oceanographic institute https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163356
« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 11:32:39 PM by uniquorn »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3896 on: July 14, 2019, 11:48:10 PM »
Welcome to the ASIF Edmountain!  Thanks for the Alert, NU temperature report
... today equaled their all-time record high of 20°C.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3897 on: July 15, 2019, 12:01:10 AM »
I wish there were less focus on the horse race (e.g. extent records, BOEs). 2019 is already a crazy melt year and looks to continue its fascinating trajectory. It's close to if not the worst year for ice in human history. Isn't that enough?

Regarding predicting the first BOE, I doubt anyone will know until it's already in progress. It seems unlikely to happen by the same mechanisms that we see year after year. It will instead result from a release of some major brake in the system, such as halocline weakening combined with big storms. Highly unlikely to be in 2019 or any particular year, yet we inexorably moving towards it...

AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3898 on: July 15, 2019, 12:05:28 AM »
I don't want to see too much discussion of BOE and its implications. I'm happy no one announced a BOE this year.
Neven: how likely do you think a "Broken Heart" would be? (With low-concentration ice extending to the pole and the ice in general thin enough that an icebreaker could run through at full speed without taking damage. We've had these conditions at least once, depending on how strict you are)
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Villabolo

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3899 on: July 15, 2019, 12:59:28 AM »
I don't want to see too much discussion of BOE and its implications. I'm happy no one announced a BOE this year.

Is there a thread where BOE and its implications is covered?  :-X