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Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3900 on: July 15, 2019, 01:12:50 AM »
I don't want to see too much discussion of BOE and its implications. I'm happy no one announced a BOE this year.

Is there a thread where BOE and its implications is covered?  :-X

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2800.0.html

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3901 on: July 15, 2019, 01:15:30 AM »
I don't want to see too much discussion of BOE and its implications. I'm happy no one announced a BOE this year.

Is there a thread where BOE and its implications is covered?  :-X

Try this one: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg213437/topicseen.html#new

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3902 on: July 15, 2019, 01:16:05 AM »
The Lincoln Sea is pretty warm the next couple of days as winds blow up Nares strait and off Greenland etc. Those  huge areas of bare rock must drive a lot of thermals, adding turbulence, as well as more heat to the foehn wind this area is subject to?

I've added the Windy forecast for about now, as well as a Worldview image of the area yesterday

Villabolo

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3903 on: July 15, 2019, 01:40:08 AM »
Thanks, philopek and Pragma! :)

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3904 on: July 15, 2019, 02:03:36 AM »
Agree 100% with Friv about the BOE. It is not going to happen.

2012 is on everyones lips here but most people forget that 2012 not only had extremely good preconditioning and melting momentum but also two "prepper" years as both 2011 and 2010 was.

Personally, I think 2019 will end up at place 2-5 depending on the weather conditions during the next month.

I agree on BOE. But I also think this may be a prepper year for it.

In preparation for this year, the arctic has had poor winters since 2016. Last year it was a bit colder, but the extra ice went to the Atlantic Front, and it only took a bad May and June to bring volume back to a record low.  Area is still going down fast, and extent is keeping just ahead of 2016,  2012, and 2007. So A record can't be ruled out. The next PIOMAS update in a week will be very interesting

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3905 on: July 15, 2019, 02:16:32 AM »
Ice motion July 1 to 13. Fram export is stalled; Beaufort export continues.

http://osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php?prod=LR-Drift

Click to animate.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3906 on: July 15, 2019, 03:53:06 AM »
edmountain mentioned this earlier, but I think it is very important and worth repeating. The CAA is heating up even though it has been covered in clouds. 

This is an all time record at the northern most weather station. The lower temps in the channels are because of the ice, but it will be melting.

We could see a lift off of the ice from the CAA this year.  That will be significant if it happens.

tzupancic

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3907 on: July 15, 2019, 03:53:25 AM »
Components of the Arctic Sea and the Arctic Region that are changing over time

Components of the climate system that are changing over time

How do these forces affect present events? In particular I am curious how Forum Members factor in such changes when assessing real time observations and comparing present events with historical observations. Clearly, the melting of the Artic Sea Ice is a dynamic event occurring in a complex system where multiple fundamental elements and processes are rapidly changing simultaneously.

Obviously, 2012 was seven years ago and a lot has changed in the Arctic and on the planet since then. It would appear that the models being used do not move as fast as this complex system changes.

Setting aside the unpredictable variable of the weather, it would still appear that unanticipated events may well occur in 2019 as a result of fundamental changes in the system that have not yet been appropriately understood or articulated.

More generally, is it possible here to gain some insight into how to understand a highly complex and rapidly changing system?

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3908 on: July 15, 2019, 04:10:54 AM »

Setting aside the unpredictable variable of the weather, it would still appear that unanticipated events may well occur in 2019 as a result of fundamental changes in the system that have not yet been appropriately understood or articulated.

More generally, is it possible here to gain some insight into how to understand a highly complex and rapidly changing system?

Just follow along like we all do.  No one has figured out any magic formula for predicting what the ice will do. We watch and compare and speculate, then we see what actually happens.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3909 on: July 15, 2019, 04:20:58 AM »
Setting aside the unpredictable variable of the weather, it would still appear that unanticipated events may well occur in 2019 as a result of fundamental changes in the system that have not yet been appropriately understood or articulated.

As Rod implied, that's presumably a big part of why many of us are here. It's fascinating to watch. As for detailed hypotheses based in a best-as-possible understanding of current evidence, I'm not sure such experts are here. (It would be better to read the scientific literature.) But I'd venture that no one, top experts in the field included, has a very good idea about what is going to happen.

P.S. I've already stated my best guess, which is, at some point a combination of:
+ Peripheral heat, which melts ice and snow, raises SSTs, and feeds storms -- note that this is not random but a systemic effect;
+ Export of ice into the Atlantic, which we've seen in an unprecedented amount this year (although I'm not sure how many have taken notice; nor whether it's a systemic change that will persist);
+ Halocline weakening, which if I understand it correctly is dependent on the volume of melting ice and accumulates over years and decades;
+ Related changes to atmospheric circulation that I don't understand well, but which at least include a weakening jet, due to reduced temperature differences between the north pole and the continents, and which seems like it may result in less protection of the arctic from injections of warm, humid air masses (and which we've already seen in real time this year and may see more of);
+ And probably additional and more important factors that I don't know about.

All of this is accumulating and will at some point add up to disaster.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 04:44:58 AM by petm »

tzupancic

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3910 on: July 15, 2019, 04:26:42 AM »
Just follow along like we all do.  No one has figured out any magic formula for predicting what the ice will do. We watch and compare and speculate, then we see what actually happens.

How then does one understand and interpret real time data?  Shouldn’t the physical properties of the system be appreciated when comparing current observations with historical events?

I am not suggesting that there is some ‘magic formula’, rather, I am asking if there is some alternative way to talk about what is presently being observed.

tzupancic

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3911 on: July 15, 2019, 04:38:00 AM »
To provide some technical detail related to my initial post tonight

Components of the Arctic Sea and the Arctic Region that are changing over time

The start dates of significant freezing and significant melting
   Sea Ice Area/extent throughout the year
   The effect of reduced Sea Ice Area on solar insolation/albedo (when solar energy is available)
   Sea Ice volume
Arctic temperatures during Fall, Winter and Spring
The relative amounts of first year ice vs multi year ice (considering the different properties of such ice)
Ice thickness
Ice fragmentation
Ice mobility
The effect of ice condition on sea ice export
Effect of open water on wave formation and size
The effects of arctic sea waves on ocean heat distribution
The movement of ocean heat from the Atlantic and Pacific into the Arctic ocean
The frequency and intensity of arctic cyclones

Components of the climate system that are changing over time

The amount of energy in the system
The amount of energy in the oceans
The stability and persistence of the jet stream
The persistence of weather patterns
The amount of water in the atmosphere
The transfer of heat into the Arctic
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3912 on: July 15, 2019, 04:47:41 AM »
Every thing you have listed is important.  There is no magic person who can put them all into context and predict what the ice will do. 

Unfortunately, we are all learning just like the scientists are.

Climate change is a bitch, and she is mysterious. 
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 04:53:12 AM by Rod »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3913 on: July 15, 2019, 05:03:08 AM »
To provide some technical detail related to my initial post tonight

I'm sure there are also many times more similar items besides, interacting in mostly unknown and unforeseen ways. I hope that you may find some better answers here, as I suspect there are experts lurking who may point you to the latest and greatest review articles and whatnot. But I guess the take home message is obvious -- who knows?! We are witnessing a grand experiment.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3914 on: July 15, 2019, 06:19:55 AM »
July 10-14.

2018.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3915 on: July 15, 2019, 06:20:58 AM »
But I guess the take home message is obvious -- who knows?! We are witnessing a grand experiment.

The current grand experiment has a lot of similarity with the recent geologic past in terme of high GHG levels. I would recommend tzupancic check out the paleo climate science from the past 55M years as a guide for the likely range of outcomes.

For near  / intermediate term climate consequences of Arctic melt, the work of Jennifer Francis is a good starting place.

Climate is a relatively new and extremely intricate field of science. The work on unified models is ongoing but primitive today, relative to where it will be in another decade or two. We're getting closer. The Arctic is a wilderness. We have a lot of imprecise and anecdotal data that we're grinding over to try and make sense of.

In more mundane news. The winds from Baffin Bay into the CAA through the channels N of Baffin Island have been strong for weeks on end. More often then not, those winds continue west into Canada. For the moment, they are being drawn into the CAB circulation, bringing some ~ 2C air with it. Not a game changer, but some more kindling for momentum.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3916 on: July 15, 2019, 06:25:49 AM »
July 10-14.

Whoa. Seems like everything south of 75 in the upper left quadrant wants to go together and at once.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 06:32:30 AM by petm »

tzupancic

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3917 on: July 15, 2019, 07:11:36 AM »
To provide some technical detail related to my initial post tonight

I'm sure there are also many times more similar items besides, interacting in mostly unknown and unforeseen ways. I hope that you may find some better answers here, as I suspect there are experts lurking who may point you to the latest and greatest review articles and whatnot. But I guess the take home message is obvious -- who knows?! We are witnessing a grand experiment.

I am not expecting a lurking technical expert to show up. My point, again, is that given the complexity of the system and the rapid change it is experiencing, be careful about making projections based on historical data.

<edit Neven: This is not the right thread to discuss these things. Please, take it elsewhere. I would kindly ask others to stop responding in this thread.>
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 08:26:51 AM by Neven »

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3918 on: July 15, 2019, 08:25:49 AM »
Will the melt momentum maintain its momentum?

TOPAZ4 still seems to think so, as does Slaters model and des ESRL experimental forecast. The ice gets attacked from all sides, a good part of the ESS might be ice free by the end of July.
Curious if reality follows suit.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 09:50:26 AM by S.Pansa »

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3919 on: July 15, 2019, 12:45:41 PM »
Sea Ice concentration changes over the last week - seen through the eyes of Uni Hamburgs AMSR2 (resolution 3.125km). GIF needs a click!
Sorry for the double post :-[
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 12:51:42 PM by S.Pansa »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3920 on: July 15, 2019, 03:15:24 PM »
Thanks for this 1week comparison.
This is even going to be more interesting as the storms are coming and going.
We may be in a situation that the pack inflates due to the small cyclones and at the same time extremely deteriorated peripheral ice just melts out just because it is so close to zero thickness. The stirring caused by the storms is weak, but so is the pack at places (see 2019 vs 2012 thread Comradez YouTube)

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3921 on: July 15, 2019, 03:38:45 PM »
Jet might get a bit lost this week and wander into the Arctic from a couple sides at different times.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3922 on: July 15, 2019, 04:15:40 PM »
At least at 74N

Some decent heat is going into the upper ocean of the Beaufort.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3923 on: July 15, 2019, 05:19:25 PM »
I don't want to see too much discussion of BOE and its implications. I'm happy no one announced a BOE this year.

What about a BOA though? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3924 on: July 15, 2019, 07:29:18 PM »
Looking at the 3,5 and 10 day GFS forecast, it looks like melting momentum is going to get a big test.

Average atmospheric temperatures away from the coast in the Chuchki, ESS and Laptev are heading to ~ zero C according to the forecast while we get some warmth in the CAA and CAB in the coming days.


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3925 on: July 15, 2019, 07:50:30 PM »
When this season is over and we can compare what happened to what we expected, will that help us predict 2020 better?
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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3926 on: July 15, 2019, 08:29:37 PM »
Looking at the 3,5 and 10 day GFS forecast, it looks like melting momentum is going to get a big test.

Average atmospheric temperatures away from the coast in the Chuchki, ESS and Laptev are heading to ~ zero C according to the forecast while we get some warmth in the CAA and CAB in the coming days.
Are you sure?  I see quite some resilience of  High Pressure systems over NA and Greenland that was not there before, and that's not so good news.
Was waiting the EC to confirm but I didn't get the data yet.  previous run already hinted some air pulling from the Pacific even...
edit. The EC shows anticyclones getting stronger in CAA and Greenland, but with the cyclone dominating the Arctic. Anyway this is day 7-10.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 09:27:54 PM by Sterks »

Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3927 on: July 15, 2019, 09:24:32 PM »
Ice motion July 1 to 13. Fram export is stalled; Beaufort export continues.

What is the difference between the black and the purple arrows?
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3928 on: July 15, 2019, 10:27:07 PM »
What is the difference between the black and the purple arrows?
I think black arrows are confirmed drift from two sources, purple are estimated or from only one.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3929 on: July 15, 2019, 10:30:18 PM »
When this season is over and we can compare what happened to what we expected, will that help us predict 2020 better?

I doubt it.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3930 on: July 15, 2019, 10:39:29 PM »
Looking at the 3,5 and 10 day GFS forecast, it looks like melting momentum is going to get a big test.

Average atmospheric temperatures away from the coast in the Chuchki, ESS and Laptev are heading to ~ zero C according to the forecast while we get some warmth in the CAA and CAB in the coming days.
Are you sure?

I checked again and it still looks the same. Lotta pale blue in those 3 seas.




Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3931 on: July 15, 2019, 11:59:15 PM »
Even weak storms can reduce to “rubble” 20 km diam floes, although they were weakened and fractured to start with
This is Worldview natural light over the ESS,  far from the coast by about 200-300 km, over the region where an elongation of older ice is supposed to lie.
Latest five days, the storm enters on the fourth day, and the fifth both floes lose complete integrity.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3932 on: July 16, 2019, 12:04:00 AM »
As a matter of fact the level of crunching in the entire area of gif is such... These are weak-ass storms but they are breaking up weak-ass floes.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3933 on: July 16, 2019, 12:30:40 AM »
Sorry for posting for third time.
These weak storms are NOT not going to do shit.
They are going to do it in fact, which is accelerating by several days the demise of peripheral ice come the time.
I was really interested on a 980+ hpa affecting the Beaufort sea
Depending on the run it appears or it’s pushed by some Highs in the American side,
I just wish it happened and affected the broken area there, just to see what happens.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3934 on: July 16, 2019, 01:00:16 AM »
Indeed Sterks .. great evening for Worldview .. 85'N  stretch marks everywhere , open water appearing among the rubble . Search for floes .. big ones .. instead  there is total loss of integrity across the 'safe' Central Arctic Basin . Take your pick of 10 day forecasts .. I say this ice will look a lot worse then than now .
The 'pack up your bags and go home ' posters need to look at the ice .. not arrows .
  My forecast is still for first or second place .. area and volume , but unless someone can really come up with weather that isn't weather for the next month then the CAB is really in big trouble . A stall in extent just underlines the increasing inadequacy of extent as a useful measure as conditions in the Arctic change . b.c.

 ps .. I mean that now extent fails to adequately report the condition of the ice up until it's total disappearance . Earlier in the season melt ponds expose the inadequacies of Area , but as the season progresses that flaw disappears .
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 01:09:50 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3935 on: July 16, 2019, 01:51:12 AM »
Even weak storms can reduce to “rubble” 20 km diam floes, although they were weakened and fractured to start with
This is Worldview natural light over the ESS,  far from the coast by about 200-300 km, over the region where an elongation of older ice is supposed to lie.
Latest five days, the storm enters on the fourth day, and the fifth both floes lose complete integrity.
Thanks for posting this gif! I wanted to make one myself of that area because I had a question about those immobile objects you can see in the right top corner. For a few days now I've been wondering if those are islands, or icebergs? These immobile objects don't show up on Google earth or other maps as islands, so are they giant icebergs that are stuck on the bottom? You can see a piece break of in the last frames.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 01:57:31 AM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3936 on: July 16, 2019, 02:18:50 AM »
Quote from: Freegrass
... I had a question about those immobile objects you can see in the right top corner. For a few days now I've been wondering if those are islands, or icebergs? These immobile objects don't show up on Google earth or other maps as islands, so are they giant icebergs that are stuck on the bottom?     

Hard to say without coordinates but there are several shallow shoals out there and bottomfast ice wouldn't be out of the question.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3937 on: July 16, 2019, 02:24:21 AM »
Looking at the 3,5 and 10 day GFS forecast, it looks like melting momentum is going to get a big test.

Average atmospheric temperatures away from the coast in the Chuchki, ESS and Laptev are heading to ~ zero C according to the forecast while we get some warmth in the CAA and CAB in the coming days.
Are you sure?



I checked again and it still looks the same. Lotta pale blue in those 3 seas.

The cool temps may retard things a bit but Ice in those seas is toast already. The Chukchi is almost ice free, and about half has SSTs over 10C. (How warm will it be in another month, 15C? That's going to seriously retard refreeze in that region, and is a lot of potential energy for late summer/autumn storms)The EC on Windy also thinks the the Laptev Sea will get a moderate torching(compared to June) from Saturday to Monday to finish off the coastal ice, and then a small but fairly intense cyclone in the ESS will complete the destruction of its ice.

The heat on the other side (20.5C at Resolute!) is a worry. Area seems to be going down fast still despite extent bounces in many of the regions. CAB and ESS went up a bit yesterday, Laptev sideways. I;ve attached the Norwegian Arctic ROOS area graph which shows 2019 pulling a bit ahead of 2012, and maintaining a crushing momentum, while 2012 eases off a little

Arctic Roos has a coarse SSMI resolution. Does anyone know if JAXA or Bremen etc publish an area graph?or Wipneus etc from their data? I've drawn a blank trying to locate anything giving global area, even raw numbers, apart from Arctic ROOS on the excellent ASIG pages, but I'm probably missing something

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3938 on: July 16, 2019, 02:30:46 AM »
I have noticed quite a few of those solid blocks of ice with the other ice moving around them in the Asian seas throughout the melt season and have assumed they are shoal waters withe the ice still fast to the bottom - most of the ones I was watching have since freed or broken up and joined the general ice movement. That shelf in general is very shallow water.

Edit: Unless you are looking at good detailed nautical charts you have no idea how deep specific small areas of a sea floor are. Shoals and banks as well as rock outcrops can be a few feet below the surface of an otherwise deeper area of ocean. I have not seen on-line anything on ocean depth that gets down to a scale that would detail such small navigational hazards for the arctic, though I suspect they exist if I were to search hard enough to find them.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 03:22:32 AM by UCMiami »

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3939 on: July 16, 2019, 02:33:35 AM »
There was an excellent video presentation on 2019 ice quality posted yesterday on the 2019 v. 2012 thread. I recommend checking it out.

The narrator did an excellent job of walking through the progression of ice conditions. After watching it, it occurred to me that there is a lot of potential for a more formal evaluation and categorization of ice quality. Of course, by the time it might be implemented, there might not be much ice left :(

I think Neven linked to the video on ASIB as well.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3940 on: July 16, 2019, 02:37:39 AM »

Hard to say without coordinates but there are several shallow shoals out there and bottomfast ice wouldn't be out of the question.

Here's a screenshot of a big piece that I was following in the ESS because it created a trail in the floating ice. At first I thought a ship caused this open water, but then I found this "island" I can't find on any map. The water is about 20 meters deep there according to google earth, so then I was thinking it could be an iceberg?

Edit; And if these are iceberg, what damage do they do to the methane hydrates? Don't they disturb them while they scrape over the bottom?
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3941 on: July 16, 2019, 02:42:02 AM »
Hi Freegrass if you look back with Worldview you can see the second piece of ice ground 2 weeks ago .. it was shunted into the shallows . The more resistant grounded floe has been there since before breakup . b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3942 on: July 16, 2019, 02:43:20 AM »
July 10-14.

2018.

That's a good example of Coriolis forces at work as the pack pushes out in almost all directions, with export to Barents, Kara, Laptev ESS and Beaufort.

The pack's illusion of elasticity, expanding to fill the space when "stretched", is starting to fray, especially in thde Pacific and Euasian sector, with holes appearing everywhere. On Worldview, peering thru thin cloud, there's a huge area that looks like it will be nothing but goodbye waves in 2 weeks, perhaps as far as 80N

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3943 on: July 16, 2019, 02:44:25 AM »
These weak storms are NOT not going to do shit.
They are going to do it in fact, which is accelerating by several days the demise of peripheral ice come the time.

There was a paper published in I think 2016 or 2017 on this point.  I have looked everywhere and can not find it.   The researchers were on a ship in the ESS and a small storm came in.  They were able to document, through actual measurements,  extreme melting under cloudy skies. 

I wish I could post a link to the paper.  Someone on here might have the reference handy. The important part, as Sterks notes, even small storms this time of year can do a lot of damage!

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3944 on: July 16, 2019, 02:59:40 AM »

Here's a screenshot of a big piece that I was following in the ESS because it created a trail in the floating ice. At first I thought a ship caused this open water, but then I found this "island" I can't find on any map. The water is about 20 meters deep there according to google earth, so then I was thinking it could be an iceberg?

Edit; And if these are iceberg, what damage do they do to the methane hydrates? Don't they disturb them while they scrape over the bottom?

Dr. Natalia Shakhova has photographed ice scouring on the subsea surface on the ESAS.  I have always been curious about what caused it, and when.  The floe you are following would not fit the definition of an iceberg, and it certainly does not extend 20 meters deep.

That is not to say that things are not bad in the ESS.   We know from Shakova’s 2017 paper the subsea permafrost is melting in the ESS.  But, that is a topic for another thread and we don’t want to make Neven mad. 😝

That floe you are following is not likely to last much longer, and you can be comfortable that it has not disturbed any methane hydrates 20 meters below the surface.  At best, it might be 2-3 meters thick. 
 
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 03:21:59 AM by Rod »

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3945 on: July 16, 2019, 03:01:18 AM »
<major snippage> (How warm will it be in another month, 15C? That's going to seriously retard refreeze in that region, and is a lot of potential energy for late summer/autumn storms)
*Maybe*.

It depends on how much that heat is protected by moisture and inputs of heat from further south.

Those top layers of ocean can cool pretty fast if conditions are right, and permit the formation of thin ice pretty quickly.

That said, that much heat can slow things down at least a couple weeks even with optimum refreezing conditions, and that is that much less time available for ice to thicken later.

I'm getting to the point where when I look at the ice, I'm thinking ahead 5 or 6 months to think about what implications current conditions have on the energy balance.
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edmountain

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3946 on: July 16, 2019, 03:55:24 AM »
...

The heat on the other side (20.5C at Resolute!) is a worry. Area seems to be going down fast still despite extent bounces in many of the regions. CAB and ESS went up a bit yesterday, Laptev sideways. I;ve attached the Norwegian Arctic ROOS area graph which shows 2019 pulling a bit ahead of 2012, and maintaining a crushing momentum, while 2012 eases off a little

...
Today the temperature reached at least 20.3°C in Alert while yesterday topped out at 21.0°C. That means July 14 and July 15, 2019, are the two warmest days on record for that location.

Worldview from July 1 to present for the region around Alert shows all the snow has melted, significant melting in fjords etc, but the sea ice itself looks to be just moving around. Presumably it's melting and degrading in quality given the temperatures. For orientation, Alert is near the centre of the frame whilst the Nares Strait opens up beyond the Kennedy Channel at the bottom left of the frame.

Source: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3947 on: July 16, 2019, 04:36:36 AM »
Unless you are looking at good detailed nautical charts you have no idea how deep specific small areas of a sea floor are. Shoals and banks as well as rock outcrops can be a few feet below the surface of an otherwise deeper area of ocean. I have not seen on-line anything on ocean depth that gets down to a scale that would detail such small navigational hazards for the arctic, though I suspect they exist if I were to search hard enough to find them.

I guess Google Earth Ocean floor doesn't exist yet? ::) I found this map that's very detailed, but maybe not detailed enough? On this map I am seeing a few little islands, so you're probably right that this could be an island that doesn't rise above the ocean surface. I'm posting the link, because the image is quite large in size.

https://nik.bot.nu/o3129683.jpg

I'm trying to reply to Rod, but I keep getting this message.
The following error or errors occurred while posting this message:
The message body was left empty.

So what am I doing wrong?

I'll post my reply to Rod here...

Thanks Rod. And no, I've already made Neven mad this weekend when I was posting while drunk, so I'm gonna try not to repeat that.  ;) I need an app that blocks me from posting while drunk...  :-[  :-X Sorry about that post Neven!
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 04:44:13 AM by Freegrass »
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binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3948 on: July 16, 2019, 06:12:41 AM »
...
Edit; And if these are iceberg, what damage do they do to the methane hydrates? Don't they disturb them while they scrape over the bottom?

Dr. Natalia Shakhova has photographed ice scouring on the subsea surface on the ESAS.  I have always been curious about what caused it, and when.  The floe you are following would not fit the definition of an iceberg, and it certainly does not extend 20 meters deep.
...

How can you tell that this "floe" does not fit the description of an iceberg? I'll admit that it is very big for an iceberg (not sure if Greenland does produce them quite this big), but from a satellite point of view, a large iceberg is indistinguishable from a sea ice floe.

Smaller icebergs that have been round the Arctic from their origins in Greenland could well be scouring the sea floor in "normal" times, in the past they may have been stranded for year after year before melting.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3949 on: July 16, 2019, 06:17:19 AM »
Maybe I misunderstood him, but I thought he was talking about the ESS.  I don’t think there are any glaciers over there calving ice bergs, but I’m happy to be corrected if I’m wrong.  🤔