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UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3950 on: July 16, 2019, 06:19:42 AM »
Freegrass - nice national geographic map but definitely not anything you would want to use for navigation - it doesn't even include some of the islets that Worldview identifies and certainly nothing detailed enough as far as depth soundings as it just gives averages for large swathes of ocean floor. For example I am sure none of the arctic islands drop in a cliff to the depths that are listed for ocean floor surrounding them nor do the coastlines drop to those depths. There are a few better free maps that at least use two or three colors to indicate different depths within the Asian shelf but they are too general to identify small areas that could snag arctic ice flows - basically it is just better to assume where ice is snagged the ocean floor has a depth less than ten feet and probably less than six feet by this late in the melt season.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3951 on: July 16, 2019, 06:21:28 AM »
These are weak-ass storms but they are breaking up weak-ass floes.

Looks like it's the rapid change of direction / acceleration that does it.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3952 on: July 16, 2019, 06:22:45 AM »
Maybe I misunderstood him, but I thought he was talking about the ESS.  I don’t think there are any glaciers over there calving ice bergs, but I’m happy to be corrected if I’m wrong.  🤔
No there are no glaciers there calving. But icebergs from northern Greenland could be transported around the Arctic, at least in the old days when the ice was constantly moving in a great counter-clockwise circle.

From the movement animations I've seeen these last few seasons, it might perhaps take two years for a big iceberg that got caught in the gyre to end up in the ESS. And being big, icebergs take a very long time to melt, so thinking back to the ice scourings on the sea floor, I would guess that a single iceberg could have sat for years grounded in the ESS in the bad old times.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3953 on: July 16, 2019, 06:33:07 AM »

How can you tell that this "floe" does not fit the description of an iceberg? I'll admit that it is very big for an iceberg (not sure if Greenland does produce them quite this big), but from a satellite point of view, a large iceberg is indistinguishable from a sea ice floe.

Smaller icebergs that have been round the Arctic from their origins in Greenland could well be scouring the sea floor in "normal" times, in the past they may have been stranded for year after year before melting.

While looking for a better map of the ocean floor just now, I came across these images that show the scars from icebergs that scrape over the sea floor. This is pretty amazing! And then I'm thinking what this does to the methane hydrates. But I guess that's a question for a different thread...

https://gizmodo.com/stunning-new-atlas-shows-the-polar-seafloor-like-we-ve-1794702598

This image does confirm that large icebergs move among the ice.

Wide flat iceberg ploughmarks, which were scraped by unusually flat-bottomed icebergs in the central Barents Sea. (Image courtesy British Antarctic Survey)
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 07:00:17 AM by Freegrass »
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plg

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3954 on: July 16, 2019, 07:05:04 AM »
...
I guess Google Earth Ocean floor doesn't exist yet? ::) I found this map that's very detailed, but maybe not detailed enough? On this map I am seeing a few little islands, so you're probably right that this could be an island that doesn't rise above the ocean surface. I'm posting the link, because the image is quite large in size.

https://nik.bot.nu/o3129683.jpg

...

An alternate/similar map: http://cp12.nevsepic.com.ua/57/1354223383-0526928-www.nevsepic.com.ua.jpg

Resolution 6000 × 4539, zoom for details. Maybe both maps are based on the same data?

Edit:
The image above seems to be more detailed  (and different) than National Geographic (but this does not necessarily make it more correct).

Edit, again:
Some more digging: Both maps are from National Geographic, the former one from 1971 and the latter from 1990. I have not found a newer map by moderate search effort.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 07:28:38 AM by plg »
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S.Pansa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3955 on: July 16, 2019, 07:27:17 AM »
...
Arctic Roos has a coarse SSMI resolution. Does anyone know if JAXA or Bremen etc publish an area graph?or Wipneus etc from their data?

I am not sure if that is what you are looking for but Wipneus produces Area numbers from JAXA (10km) and Uni Hamburg (3.125 km) data: for the Arctic and the subregions. All the details & data are available on his "Home brew AMSR2" thread, page 1.
Attached the current area numbers in comparison with earlier years.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3956 on: July 16, 2019, 07:51:56 AM »
Attached the current area numbers in comparison with earlier years.

Well yes. Quite

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er...
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UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3957 on: July 16, 2019, 08:39:16 AM »
In worldview today July 16 there is an interesting breakup of the cab ice at around 85N between 120E and 100E - the largest rubble area I have seen this far north.

Also the ice east of the northern part of the Laptev bite appears to degrading rapidly - not sure if it is dispersal or actual melt of connecting leads between the flows. The result of the small weather disturbances. the Laptev heat spreading, or something else?

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3958 on: July 16, 2019, 08:48:05 AM »
Quote
No there are no glaciers there calving. But icebergs from northern Greenland could be transported around the Arctic, at least in the old days when the ice was constantly moving in a great counter-clockwise circle.
This discussion is OT here. But in brief:
The currents around Greenland flow south in the Nares and in the Fram, so no Greenland icebergs can make it into the Arctic Ocean proper. What you could be referring to may be the Ward Hunt ice shelf and its remnants that broke off large icebergs from the north of Ellesmere Island in the early 2000s. But I am certain there are no icebergs in the ESS this season, so this should be discussed elsewhere.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3959 on: July 16, 2019, 09:32:59 AM »
I will provide coords when I am in front of a comp.  But this is indeed fastened ice. Google bathymetry lacks details. The leftmost piece appears for instance in August July 2007. Was completely destroyed in 2012 and reappears bigger later in cooler years. Just use the knobs... I'll get the coords.
EDIT: Coordinates of the leftmost fast ice block in the image: N71.5746º E163.4386º
Recent days: https://go.nasa.gov/2JWAJ75
July 2007 it's there: https://go.nasa.gov/2XMPhzO
August 2012: It's not there: https://go.nasa.gov/2lG3M6g
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 11:33:52 AM by Sterks »

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3960 on: July 16, 2019, 09:44:24 AM »
I'm sorry my reply 4941 to Freegrass was obviously inadequate . b.c.

ps .. the conversation has found a new home on the meaningless f/m season chatter ..
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 10:14:34 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3961 on: July 16, 2019, 10:25:18 AM »
Clear skies at the pole.  Shot is centered on the North pole. 30°E is straight up. One pixel is just about 375m.

16 hour loop, "natural color"
Click to run
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VeganPeaceForAll

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3962 on: July 16, 2019, 02:08:50 PM »
Bad for the ice surrounding Nunavat, including the CAA (map here: Map over Nunavut):

Expert predicting the heat wave to continue throughout the summer:
Quote
""That's what we're seeing more often," Phillips said. "It's not just half a degree or a 10th of a millimetre. It's like hitting a ball out of the ballpark. It is so different than what the previous record was."

More is to come, he predicted.

"Our models for the rest of the summer are saying, 'Get used to it."'"
From: 'This is unprecedented': Alert, Nunavut, is warmer than Victoria

« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 04:31:10 PM by VeganPeaceForAll »

deconstruct

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3963 on: July 16, 2019, 04:45:37 PM »
The leftmost piece appears for instance in August July 2007. Was completely destroyed in 2012 and reappears bigger later in cooler years. Just use the knobs... I'll get the coords.
EDIT: Coordinates of the leftmost fast ice block in the image: N71.5746º E163.4386º
Recent days: https://go.nasa.gov/2JWAJ75
July 2007 it's there: https://go.nasa.gov/2XMPhzO
August 2012: It's not there: https://go.nasa.gov/2lG3M6g
In your August 2012 link (14th August) there is a fastened ice still at that position. It is however very small, compared to the other years and melts out in the next days. There are however multiple other places, where there is bottom-fastened sea ice visible in that region. In the images around 14th Aug 2012 I can identify at least 8 such places.

So that is totally normal and common and just shows, that there are regions with very shallow waters, where ice will be grounded nearly every year (or maybe even all years, at least I can find some places, where there is ice stuck to it in all years which I checked at least).

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3964 on: July 16, 2019, 05:25:41 PM »
I feel no weather is good for this year's ice . Forecasts are mostly for shallow vortices dancing over ice for the outlook . Just about every inch of the Arctic basin will have winds from every point of the compass . The pack is ready to disintergrate . It is already ice soup . Now for a couple of weeks in the blender .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3965 on: July 16, 2019, 05:28:36 PM »
Clear skies at the pole.  Shot is centered on the North pole. 30°E is straight up. One pixel is just about 375m.

16 hour loop, "natural color"
Click to run
Using this calculator, i see that now (day 196) surface albedo of ~36% would mean equilibrium surface temperature of ~1°C there at the North Pole from insolation alone (before any greenhouse effects). Same calc lists ice albedo as 60%, water albedo as 6%. For the latter, equilibrium surface temperature would be ~29°C. And the place looks rather bluish, to me.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3966 on: July 16, 2019, 05:57:56 PM »
Unless you are looking at good detailed nautical charts you have no idea how deep specific small areas of a sea floor are. Shoals and banks as well as rock outcrops can be a few feet below the surface of an otherwise deeper area of ocean. I have not seen on-line anything on ocean depth that gets down to a scale that would detail such small navigational hazards for the arctic, though I suspect they exist if I were to search hard enough to find them.

I guess Google Earth Ocean floor doesn't exist yet? ::) I found this map that's very detailed, but maybe not detailed enough? On this map I am seeing a few little islands, so you're probably right that this could be an island that doesn't rise above the ocean surface. I'm posting the link, because the image is quite large in size.

https://nik.bot.nu/o3129683.jpg

I'm trying to reply to Rod, but I keep getting this message.
The following error or errors occurred while posting this message:
The message body was left empty.

So what am I doing wrong?

I'll post my reply to Rod here...

Thanks Rod. And no, I've already made Neven mad this weekend when I was posting while drunk, so I'm gonna try not to repeat that.  ;) I need an app that blocks me from posting while drunk...  :-[  :-X Sorry about that post Neven!

Water is opaque to radio waves, the only way to accurately map the oceans is with sonar, and there hasn't been much of that in the Arctic. That's why other planets are better mapped than the earth.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3967 on: July 16, 2019, 06:16:23 PM »
I feel no weather is good for this year's ice . Forecasts are mostly for shallow vortices dancing over ice for the outlook . Just about every inch of the Arctic basin will have winds from every point of the compass . The pack is ready to disintergrate . It is already ice soup . Now for a couple of weeks in the blender .. b.c.
I agree. ESS and Chukchi can go with the smallest blow.
Also wonder if a good shake up will happen on the Beaufort.
The forecasts place sometimes smalls vortices nearby Beaufort, which coupled with a hidden High can create a day to remember for the poor blocks.
This is GFS 06z +192. Yes it's small thing but with the High over Alaska creates a small dipole that will be interesting...

Retron

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3968 on: July 16, 2019, 07:25:35 PM »
A few pictures from HYCOM (which is absolutely fine to use btw, if you have errors import the cert to your root store and you won't see any more messages).

1 - today's HYCOM
2 - the same day in 2016
3 - HYCOM at the 2016 minimum

(A different algorithm is used compared to 2012, so I've not posted those charts here).


Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3969 on: July 16, 2019, 07:49:24 PM »
Thank you for posting this. I haven't had an access to this website for months. Please feel free to post further updates, maybe in a bi-weekly manner. I used to like the HYCOM presentations, at least for comparison purposes with former years and the 30-day loop.
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3970 on: July 16, 2019, 08:22:26 PM »
The near-term outlook looks to me to be rather poor for ice volume on the Atlantic side.  Winds around the big surface high pressure may push rather weak ice back into the Laptev Sea area, where it may melt in relatively warm seas perhaps.  Although Fram export would seem to stay stopped under this pattern, the Atlantic front may shrink back toward the pole a little maybe. There are some areas on the Atlantic side of the pole where the ice looks to me on Worldview to be a bit more contiguous and less rubble strewn than some prior years, so the weather this week may help melt an area that was looking a little bit more resilient this year? Despite the cooler air temp forecast in the ESS and Beaufort, I think much of the ice in those areas is doomed over the next two months due to warm water. Now the Atlantic may take a hit from still-strong sun for a few days at least?

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3971 on: July 16, 2019, 09:02:45 PM »
I feel no weather is good for this year's ice . Forecasts are mostly for shallow vortices dancing over ice for the outlook . Just about every inch of the Arctic basin will have winds from every point of the compass . The pack is ready to disintergrate . It is already ice soup . Now for a couple of weeks in the blender .. b.c.
The Beaufort polynya is going to receive two swift blows in the same direction, in four and seven days. I don’t think we are going to recognize it when it’s out of the clouds.

 I wonder what extent of ESS-Chukchi-Western Beaufort will just survive under the clouds.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3972 on: July 16, 2019, 10:09:03 PM »
It looks like the ice is dislodging from Greenland. And with the winds blowing persistently in the same direction the coming days, I guess that gap is gonna open up a lot more? Do I remember correctly that last year was the first time that this ice opened up here?
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 11:46:09 PM by Freegrass »
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3973 on: July 16, 2019, 10:14:22 PM »
The NSIDC has put out a new analysis, stating that ice has melted fast so far, but that a new record is unlikely. I take issue with their explanation:

Quote
With extent tracking near 2012 levels and atmospheric conditions conducive to rapid ice loss, it is tempting to speculate whether September extent will drop below the record low observed in 2012. A simple way to investigate this possibility is to project forward from this year’s current extent using ice loss rates from other years to estimate extents through the remainder of the summer. Based on this approach, prospects of a new record low appear slim; a new record low would only occur if loss rates followed those observed in 2012, which were very rapid because of persistent warm conditions through the melt season, with ice loss potentially enhanced by the passage of a strong cyclone in August.

If they would make the same arguments as Friv has done here, I'd say: Sure, you have a point. But just basing it on statistics? I mean, what were 2012's chances to reach the record lows it did at this point in the melting season, based on statistics?

I expect more from the number 1 scientific institute on Arctic sea ice. This is just weak.

One interesting thing they did provide, was an updated ice age map. One more argument for 2019 not breaking the record, is that arm of MYI positioned way into the pack. In most other years, it was closer to the edge, where it was much more prone to melt out. By the time open water reaches that MYI, it will probably be too late in the melting season to completely melt it out and reach further into the CAB.
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UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3974 on: July 16, 2019, 11:36:37 PM »
Seems that all we can do is make predictions based on past year's experiences and at that level 2012 was a huge anomaly that still stands out from everything that preceded it and everything that has followed. It was a perfect storm of strong early melt combined by a 'devastating' mid-melt boost in the form tha GAC. We can see possibilities in the years since 2012, but none have actually come to pass, so statistically it is unlikely they will this year either - it is the old coin flip scenario - 9 heads in a row does not change the fact that the tenth flip is equally as likely to be heads again as tails.

That said, there is by PIOMAS measure less ice in the arctic than there was in 2012 and whatever it's configuration is still statistically equivalent to 2012 in extent and area at this time. So should something in the next three weeks renew the melting momentum in a way that hasn't happened in the years since 2012 the results would likely be as bad or worse as they were in 2012 - it just isn't statistically likely just as it wasn't in 2012. Expecting a national institute to be anything but conservative in their forecast is wishful - they would rather be 'surprised' by an anomaly than to predict one.

Also - not sure if there is a 2012 version of this chart but I suspect it did not look 'better' in terms of distribution or extent of multi-year ice.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3975 on: July 17, 2019, 12:13:38 AM »
Most of us are, as usual, waiting for the PIOMAS mid-month numbers, making Wipneus numero uno in our  universe.

Wednesday?
Thursday?
Friday?
No mid-month update this month?

ps: That DMI graph coming from a model that has numerous question marks about it,  maintains that the decline in volume has continued in July.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3976 on: July 17, 2019, 12:16:21 AM »
I think the NSIDC are(rightly) just being conservative about the prospects of record low extent so they don't get misquoted by those in social media and the more professional media and a huge range of headlines too boot saying something out of context.

2012 was very unique in August with its fast rate of melt, a record low is possible but 2nd lowest is perhaps more likely because of the huge gap between 1st and 2nd. Still newsworthy either way.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3977 on: July 17, 2019, 12:34:32 AM »
An imperfect overlay of the ice aging map with July 15 UH AMSR2
I guess the Beaufort branch is not really that far from the edge anymore
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 12:45:02 AM by Sterks »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3978 on: July 17, 2019, 02:20:58 AM »
We have already been shown here that 2012 was not particularly warm in the second half of July, nor did the GAC advect large amounts of warm air over the Arctic ocean. I expect the NSIDC to be conservative, but that simplistic analysis was not very accurate. At this point most the GAC appears to be the perfect storm for sea ice extent loss, so  I would not bet on lower extent this September than in 2012. That said, the NSIDC can do better.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3979 on: July 17, 2019, 02:30:30 AM »
Holes are developing all over on the Eurasian and Pacific sides as dispersion takes its toll and areas of FYI start to melt out.

The area shown is about 84-85N, north of the Laptev Sea, and a few hundred km from the Atlantic Front. If I can find time I'll have a closer look with Sentinel as things progress

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3980 on: July 17, 2019, 03:09:03 AM »
One interesting thing they did provide, was an updated ice age map. One more argument for 2019 not breaking the record, is that arm of MYI positioned way into the pack. In most other years, it was closer to the edge, where it was much more prone to melt out. By the time open water reaches that MYI, it will probably be too late in the melting season to completely melt it out and reach further into the CAB.
Also - not sure if there is a 2012 version of this chart but I suspect it did not look 'better' in terms of distribution or extent of multi-year ice.
Neven I beg to disagree. I think 2019 is uniquely poised to break the record, given the distribution of sea ice age and subject to the weather of course. Friv may be right about what will happen, but this year is certainly highly vulnerable should the weather turn again.

I provide 3 animations:
* What happened in 2012 between end-June and the late minimum. Lots of old ice was eaten up, especially in the Beaufort/Western CAB. FYI from the direction of Siberia was eaten up despite small initial Laptev bite. Note age was advanced by 1 year in the second image.
* What happened in 2016 between end-June and the early minimum. Lots of old ice was eaten up, especially in the Beaufort/Western CAB.  FYI from the direction of Siberia was eaten up despite small initial Laptev bite.
* Comparing end-June between 2012, 2016 and 2019. This year has much less old ice, and a lot of it is at the border of the Atlantic. With a bit of wind or current, this ice could be gone, the Western CAB could be eaten faster than previous years, and the FYI from Siberia to the pole might offer no resistance, with a larger initial Laptev bite.

Click to animate.

Edit: modified language, fixed 3rd animation.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 03:22:45 AM by oren »

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3981 on: July 17, 2019, 03:40:44 AM »
Oren,

I agree. With the usual disclaimer that anything can happen, I think that 2019 is less robust overall and compaction of 1st year ice does not make for a healthy CA.

The older ice is on the Canadian side as expected, but unlike 2012 and 2016, it is highly biased towards the Atlantic, and most of it is primed for export, with the right wind conditions.

Also, I found it curious just how little 1-2 year (blue) ice there was, and most if it will be gone before the end of the melt season.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3982 on: July 17, 2019, 05:21:59 AM »
I don't like the way it looks the Pacific side. We are still in the middle of July! ! And in a way, I am surprised that there seems to be no so much melting on the Atlantic side.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3983 on: July 17, 2019, 06:04:13 AM »
ESS,  and Laptev are going to get slaughtered, and soon.  Chukchi is already well ahead of everything else, and seems set to continue, at least at a moderate rate.  Beaufort while quite disperse is also marked by much larger invididual floes than the other and I think will do much better for the rest of the season.

Slaughtering ESS has only previously been done in 2007 and 2012, and close to it in 2016 and 2008.

The record?  One issue is how well the ice closer to the pole will hold up.  2012 had a disperse area deep within the ice that melted the ice pack from within, whereas 2007 was more melt from the edges, and this year is more like 2007 than 2019 in my opinion.  Dispersion has increased a lot in recent weeks, although dispersion is mostly from the edges - in some cases penetrating quite a distance from the edge, but not as deep into the pack as 2012.  Overall amounts of dispersion look reasonably similar in both years.  Compare 2019 where dispersion is limited to top and left of view, whereas in 2012 dispersion was further down and right towards the pole, but with more solid ice towards the top left near ESS. 

Another issue is the Chukchi melt rate.  I suspect warm water is entering from Chukchi, which I've seen reported as a significant factor behind 2007's result.  Chukchi is probably the fastest melting region, with ESS melting very fast, but not quite as fast as 2007.  However the weather this year seems to have been hotter towards ESS/Laptev.  If there is warm water moving into the Arctic from this direction will it continue towards the pole, or be caught in the Beaufrot Gyre and push into the ESS which is already doomed.

My opinion - if the current forecast with cool cloudy conditions continues we will even fall out of the top 3.  A return to moderately warmer conditions and 2nd.  But another strong heatwave similar to earlier, especially if it impacts deep towards the pole, and in with a big chance at 1st.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3984 on: July 17, 2019, 06:12:13 AM »
I have great news for those who want a new record low. 

The Great Arctic Cyclone gets too much credit where they big drop in 2012.

Hello okay animation showing every 3 days from July 15th 2012 until August 8th 2012.  And you can clearly see that the Pacific side in 2012 slowly decayed leading up to The Great Arctic cyclone by the time the GAC happened entire Pacific side was already almost melted out.

it seems that the slightly above-average drink cyclone in Late July is what prep the ice.

it's pretty clear that 90 + percent of the ice loss in 2012 would have happened even if the GAC never happened.

I think this is interesting because the models continue to trim deeper and stronger with the Cyclone over the next two weeks.

And if we could get a sub 990mb Cyclone with a decent high pressure gradient we could probably do the same thing happened over the laptev, ess and Western Cab.



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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3985 on: July 17, 2019, 06:49:16 AM »
That is a huge change for only 16 days.

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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3986 on: July 17, 2019, 07:00:32 AM »
July 12-16.

2018.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3987 on: July 17, 2019, 07:06:37 AM »
I provide 3 animations

The final ice edge seems to have almost no connection to the ice age predictions. Are they in any way validated?

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3988 on: July 17, 2019, 07:13:17 AM »
Strange days... Ice flowing in the wrong direction and barely existent jet. Don't know if they're connected but neither seems normal.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3989 on: July 17, 2019, 07:50:18 AM »
It looks like the ice is dislodging from Greenland. And with the winds blowing persistently in the same direction the coming days, I guess that gap is gonna open up a lot more? Do I remember correctly that last year was the first time that this ice opened up here?
I'm not sure if it was the first time - would surprise me if it was. But looking at the area over the last few days, and keeping in mind that there has been a consistent southerly wind with temperatures well above freezing, and clear skies - i wonder how fast the ice is melting. I've made a four day animation of the area, you can see the ice in the fjords and lakes going poof.

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binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3990 on: July 17, 2019, 07:59:33 AM »
Looking at Nullschool a few days ahead it looks as if Beaufort and ESS will each get their own low-pressure area (2xSAC) while strong southerly winds are gaining traction on the Atlantic side.

So the already badly melted Pacific is being twirled about with a bit of Eckman pumping and wave action, infrared insulation and what have you, and the Atlantic side is about to start melting from above as well as below.

Exciting times ahead?
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3991 on: July 17, 2019, 08:20:48 AM »
One interesting thing they did provide, was an updated ice age map. One more argument for 2019 not breaking the record, is that arm of MYI positioned way into the pack. In most other years, it was closer to the edge, where it was much more prone to melt out. By the time open water reaches that MYI, it will probably be too late in the melting season to completely melt it out and reach further into the CAB.
Also - not sure if there is a 2012 version of this chart but I suspect it did not look 'better' in terms of distribution or extent of multi-year ice.
Neven I beg to disagree. I think 2019 is uniquely poised to break the record, given the distribution of sea ice age and subject to the weather of course. Friv may be right about what will happen, but this year is certainly highly vulnerable should the weather turn again.

I provide 3 animations:
* What happened in 2012 between end-June and the late minimum. Lots of old ice was eaten up, especially in the Beaufort/Western CAB. FYI from the direction of Siberia was eaten up despite small initial Laptev bite. Note age was advanced by 1 year in the second image.
* What happened in 2016 between end-June and the early minimum. Lots of old ice was eaten up, especially in the Beaufort/Western CAB.  FYI from the direction of Siberia was eaten up despite small initial Laptev bite.
* Comparing end-June between 2012, 2016 and 2019. This year has much less old ice, and a lot of it is at the border of the Atlantic. With a bit of wind or current, this ice could be gone, the Western CAB could be eaten faster than previous years, and the FYI from Siberia to the pole might offer no resistance, with a larger initial Laptev bite.

Click to animate.

Edit: modified language, fixed 3rd animation.


The MYI arm through the middle is much narrower in 2019. As a circle maximizes the area inside compared to the outer edge length, a thinner arm exposes more surface area to melt once the surrounding ice melts on a per mass basis. Just like a long thin ice cube will melt faster than a sphere because it has more surface area exposed to water.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3992 on: July 17, 2019, 08:25:22 AM »
We have already been shown here that 2012 was not particularly warm in the second half of July, nor did the GAC advect large amounts of warm air over the Arctic ocean. I expect the NSIDC to be conservative, but that simplistic analysis was not very accurate. At this point most the GAC appears to be the perfect storm for sea ice extent loss, so  I would not bet on lower extent this September than in 2012. That said, the NSIDC can do better.

That's exactly it. I have no problem with the conservatism/reticence whatsoever, quite the contrary. I just don't like their rationale, which is based on statistics only, and possible inflates 2012 weather conditions.

This year is unlike any other year since 2012. In some aspects it is worse than 2012 even. To further the dice analogy: this year the dice are loaded unlike any other year. And so statistics isn't enough of an argument. They know about PIOMAS, compactness and melting momentum over at the NSIDC.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3993 on: July 17, 2019, 08:26:54 AM »
One interesting thing they did provide, was an updated ice age map. One more argument for 2019 not breaking the record, is that arm of MYI positioned way into the pack. In most other years, it was closer to the edge, where it was much more prone to melt out. By the time open water reaches that MYI, it will probably be too late in the melting season to completely melt it out and reach further into the CAB.
Also - not sure if there is a 2012 version of this chart but I suspect it did not look 'better' in terms of distribution or extent of multi-year ice.
Neven I beg to disagree. I think 2019 is uniquely poised to break the record, given the distribution of sea ice age and subject to the weather of course. Friv may be right about what will happen, but this year is certainly highly vulnerable should the weather turn again.

Thanks for this, oren. I had forgotten to compare, compare, compare, and wrongly assumed that this year's 'MYI arm' was just as strong as in 2012 and 2016.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3994 on: July 17, 2019, 09:57:57 AM »
A lot of the cloud on Worldview today is thin enough to peer through, and wherever you look ,from the Pacific to the Atlantic across half the basin, is dispersed ice,and  in many areas showing telltale signs of melt

I've attached images of 2 areas, colour coded 2 match  with the squares at 77 and 81 N in todays Bremen extent map

Edit: I forgot to add that the images have had the contrast enhanced by monkeying around with levels in Gimp

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3995 on: July 17, 2019, 12:16:25 PM »
Dispersion also developing on the atlantic side of the CAB and probably more to come over the next few days.  Today not as cloudy as anticipated perhaps.  https://go.nasa.gov/2LVNhy0

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3996 on: July 17, 2019, 01:59:39 PM »
I have great news for those who want a new record low. 

The Great Arctic Cyclone gets too much credit where they big drop in 2012.

Hello okay animation showing every 3 days from July 15th 2012 until August 8th 2012.  And you can clearly see that the Pacific side in 2012 slowly decayed leading up to The Great Arctic cyclone

I don't know what you're looking at bc while certainly losses were noticeable prior to the 2nd, it gets absolutely obliterated between the 2nd and 8th. You can watch it happen, in your own animation. The following...

Quote
by the time the GAC happened entire Pacific side was already almost melted out.

...simply is not accurate. The numbers back this up. As I have already shown in posts over the last few days, the weeks before and after Aug. 2nd ~ 8th were normal extent losses, while the 2nd to the 8th registered a loss of 990k sq kms.

Quote
it seems that the slightly above-average drink cyclone in Late July is what prep the ice.

There certainly was some losses before the 8th, but the JAXA ASIE numbers don't show this as heavy losses until the 2nd.

Quote
it's pretty clear that 90 + percent of the ice loss in 2012 would have happened even if the GAC never happened.

True, but I think you were speaking via hyperbole and didn't actually do the math. Any given week is only going to equal about 1/26th or 1/27th of total ice loss on average, or, very roughly, around 407.4~426k kms sq. The GAC week wiped out 990k kms sq, or more than double the average, and, without searching out my own post from days ago, almost double the week before (and after) which you analyze as being when the real destruction happened.

I don't know, maybe the area numbers are completely opposite this, but I seriously doubt it.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3997 on: July 17, 2019, 02:23:59 PM »
Last week (July 10-16), 3-day lagging median.

Click to animate.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3998 on: July 17, 2019, 03:35:44 PM »
Melting on the northwest side of Ellesmere. I was going to scale down the image but there's a lot of detail here, so I just converted the .png to .jpg


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3999 on: July 17, 2019, 03:40:58 PM »
Looking at Nullschool a few days ahead it looks as if Beaufort and ESS will each get their own low-pressure area (2xSAC) while strong southerly winds are gaining traction on the Atlantic side.

So the already badly melted Pacific is being twirled about with a bit of Eckman pumping and wave action, infrared insulation and what have you, and the Atlantic side is about to start melting from above as well as below.

Exciting times ahead?
Oh Yeah... It looks like it's gonna be a horrible week for the ice. Is there such a thing as a Tripole? (First Image)
The ice around Franz Josef Land is gonna get a beating.

I watch Nullschool every day, and if you go through the days in steps of 3 hours, you can see how the weather is changing for the worst. And on the last visible day, if you go up, and look at the jetstream, and the polar vortex even higher up, it seems like a GAC is building. But like I said before, I'm an amateur, and new to the weather in the arctic, so I could be wrong. Lets see what happens in the coming days. (Image 2 and 3)

Anyway.. That crack in the ice north of Greenland is getting hammered right now, and will probably open up a lot more in the coming days. (Image 4)

Anyway you look at it, with all the energy that has been pumped into the arctic this year, I think we'll definitely break the record this year. But who cares? We've got ten years to save the climate, and we're still pumping more CO2 into the atmosphere every year. So I would suggest everyone to enjoy the next ten years, because after that, it's not looking good for this gorgeous planet...  :'(
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