ESS, and Laptev are going to get slaughtered, and soon. Chukchi is already well ahead of everything else, and seems set to continue, at least at a moderate rate. Beaufort while quite disperse is also marked by much larger invididual floes than the other and I think will do much better for the rest of the season.
Slaughtering ESS has only previously been done in 2007 and 2012, and close to it in 2016 and 2008.
The record? One issue is how well the ice closer to the pole will hold up. 2012 had a disperse area deep within the ice that melted the ice pack from within, whereas 2007 was more melt from the edges, and this year is more like 2007 than 2019 in my opinion. Dispersion has increased a lot in recent weeks, although dispersion is mostly from the edges - in some cases penetrating quite a distance from the edge, but not as deep into the pack as 2012. Overall amounts of dispersion look reasonably similar in both years. Compare
2019 where dispersion is limited to top and left of view, whereas in
2012 dispersion was further down and right towards the pole, but with more solid ice towards the top left near ESS.
Another issue is the Chukchi melt rate. I suspect warm water is entering from Chukchi, which I've seen reported as a significant factor behind 2007's result. Chukchi is probably the fastest melting region, with ESS melting very fast, but not quite as fast as 2007. However the weather this year seems to have been hotter towards ESS/Laptev. If there is warm water moving into the Arctic from this direction will it continue towards the pole, or be caught in the Beaufrot Gyre and push into the ESS which is already doomed.
My opinion - if the current forecast with cool cloudy conditions continues we will even fall out of the top 3. A return to moderately warmer conditions and 2nd. But another strong heatwave similar to earlier, especially if it impacts deep towards the pole, and in with a big chance at 1st.