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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4000 on: July 17, 2019, 03:44:27 PM »
One interesting thing they did provide, was an updated ice age map. One more argument for 2019 not breaking the record, is that arm of MYI positioned way into the pack. In most other years, it was closer to the edge, where it was much more prone to melt out. By the time open water reaches that MYI, it will probably be too late in the melting season to completely melt it out and reach further into the CAB.
Also - not sure if there is a 2012 version of this chart but I suspect it did not look 'better' in terms of distribution or extent of multi-year ice.
Neven I beg to disagree. I think 2019 is uniquely poised to break the record, given the distribution of sea ice age and subject to the weather of course. Friv may be right about what will happen, but this year is certainly highly vulnerable should the weather turn again.

Thanks for this, oren. I had forgotten to compare, compare, compare, and wrongly assumed that this year's 'MYI arm' was just as strong as in 2012 and 2016.

If these below are comparable, I'd be surprised if there is a record low this year? And yes, that arm that sticks out most years, probably needs to be much deleted in thickness by now.
Who knows.

Compares 2012 and 2019 for this date.
I deleted ice up to one metre thick for this date in the lower ones.
From Danish Arctic Research Institutes.
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 03:54:41 PM by Thomas Barlow »

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4001 on: July 17, 2019, 04:19:08 PM »
If these below are comparable, I'd be surprised if there is a record low this year? And yes, that arm that sticks out most years, probably needs to be much deleted in thickness by now.
Who knows.

Compares 2012 and 2019 for this date.
I deleted ice up to one metre thick for this date in the lower ones.
From Danish Arctic Research Institutes.
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

Looking around on NASA Worldview, this model performs rather poorly judging by naked eye. Lots of areas it marks green should really be blue, and yellow that should be green. Very inconsistent.

That "arm" is rubble. What thickness?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4002 on: July 17, 2019, 04:31:13 PM »
...
If they would make the same arguments as Friv has done here, I'd say: Sure, you have a point. But just basing it on statistics? I mean, what were 2012's chances to reach the record lows it did at this point in the melting season, based on statistics?

I expect more from the number 1 scientific institute on Arctic sea ice. This is just weak.
...
Not just weak; as you rightfully point out, - simply incorrect, since by their approach 2012's chances to do the thing it did were simply 0%.

Now please do one more step, Neven - the step i did ~7 years ago: please do realise NSIDC is _not_ #1 scientific institute on ASI. #1 political institute on ASI? Perhaps. But not #1 scientific. It is (by far) not the 1st time those guys publish incorrect judgement, and it certainly won't be the last.

P.S. Please get me right: i do not doubt their scientific qualification, i doubt their sincerity. If you deem this far-fetched - simply ask yourself: how much scinetific qualification it takes to understand that the thing they posted is not, in fact, correct? How likely it is they don't have that much (or should we say, that little) qualification to make such a mistake honestly? Answers are quite obvious...

P.P.S. This post is not in any way to "blame" NSIDC about anything, too; the way i see it, they are forced to follow certain rules in there, for which price they then have the means to perform highly important research and produce potentially life-defining results. I will be the last guy to blame NSIDC personnel about doing any "wrongs", for sure.

cavitycreep

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4003 on: July 17, 2019, 04:44:30 PM »
Been sick for the last few weeks so you haven't seen me around here in a while.

Sea ice concentration, July 4 – July 16

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4004 on: July 17, 2019, 04:50:35 PM »
Last week the pack did not shrink as much obviously, but AMSR2 concentration seems plummeting due to the stormy weather.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4005 on: July 17, 2019, 04:58:55 PM »
The concentration is dropping because temperatures are above freezing. With these temperatures, it would be dropping if high pressure were in the areas that are stormy. Moreover, in areas such as the Lincoln sea, there has been strong warm air advection and wind flow.

Temperatures over the Arctic ocean continue to be above normal. These warm temperatures should continue to cause above normal rates of melting.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 05:47:35 PM by FishOutofWater »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4006 on: July 17, 2019, 05:35:50 PM »
A quick look at temperature and salinity in a small section of the Beaufort/CAB where buoy itp103 is currently drifting along the edge of the CAA shelf. The mp4 runs from day 150-198(today) and shows some significant changes in temperature at 8m-20m recently. The profiler attempts 3 journeys a day from 8m to 250m and one from 8m to 800m (250-800 not shown here). On some days it fails to complete the profile due to high drift speed, strong currents or turbulence. This shows up as blank on the animation and as stripes on the profile contours.

A separate gif is provided to show the unusual readings on day179. Is this upwelling, a warm current or a fault? There is a large temporary increase in salinity followed by a short period of warmer water at 60m

The microcats also show a rise in salinity at 6m and 7m around day175 (440-365), a few days earlier than the profiler (unless I've got the day numbers wrong)
day150 this year correlates to day 515 on the profile contours and microcat chart

All data including the profile contours can be found here https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163356
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 05:52:50 PM by uniquorn »

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4007 on: July 17, 2019, 05:58:05 PM »
I feel kinda ignorant and dumb af for thinking this year had the potential to beat 2012. Not to say the pack looks 'healthy,' rather compared to the 2012 images, it does look more robust. I will have to wait and see how the rest of this month unfolds, but I give this year like 0.1% chance of it beating 2012. Additionally, it appears as though there has been tons of rain/moisture across the whole Bering Sea area.
pls!

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4008 on: July 17, 2019, 06:03:35 PM »
Last week the pack did not shrink as much obviously, but AMSR2 concentration seems plummeting due to the stormy weather.
That's pretty amazing. The ice pack did exactly what I thought it would do during this storm. That means my intuition is still working perfectly.  :D

In the coming days the Laptev bite should get a little bigger if this weather prediction holds...
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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4009 on: July 17, 2019, 06:05:21 PM »
  Hi pearscot .. the potential is still there .. says this ignorant dummy , again .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4010 on: July 17, 2019, 06:21:59 PM »
We don't have a scientific basis for predicting the sea ice minimum in September. We are all ignorant. Talk about BOEs and record minima is social chatter not based on science. There is published science on the effects of spring melt ponds and Nico Sun's albedo warming potential analyses have useful data, but we can't predict the weather to make a scientific prediction of September sea ice.

We cannot anticipate a GAC this year. 2012 was a unique melting season.

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4011 on: July 17, 2019, 06:42:15 PM »
The polynya north of Greenland keeps growing, and fast ice is shattering.
Also lots of cracks that weren't there yesterday, in the ice to the west, outside the Nares strait.

https://go.nasa.gov/2JABGmq


« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 06:48:06 PM by grixm »

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4012 on: July 17, 2019, 07:29:14 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4013 on: July 17, 2019, 07:32:02 PM »
Take your time with family, Neven. I'm so sorry about your loss. We'll carry on here.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4014 on: July 17, 2019, 07:35:03 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

Oh God, I am so sorry, Neven. I remember when my mother died (I was ten) andwhen my father died (I was 47).
pearscot: doesn't rain melt ice?
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pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4015 on: July 17, 2019, 07:50:01 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

wow, that is awful and I'm SOOO sorry to hear. Take care and do what you can and I send positive thoughts to you and your family.
pls!

coyoteyogi

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4016 on: July 17, 2019, 07:51:51 PM »
I'm sorry for your loss. There will still be plenty of ice when you return. A parent's passing is always a big event.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4017 on: July 17, 2019, 08:04:54 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.
So sorry to hear about your loss Neven. I would like to offer you and your family my deepest and most sincere condolences.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4018 on: July 17, 2019, 08:22:00 PM »
I have great news for those who want a new record low. 

The Great Arctic Cyclone gets too much credit where they big drop in 2012.

Hello okay animation showing every 3 days from July 15th 2012 until August 8th 2012.  And you can clearly see that the Pacific side in 2012 slowly decayed leading up to The Great Arctic cyclone

I don't know what you're looking at bc while certainly losses were noticeable prior to the 2nd, it gets absolutely obliterated between the 2nd and 8th. You can watch it happen, in your own animation. The following...

Quote
by the time the GAC happened entire Pacific side was already almost melted out.

...simply is not accurate. The numbers back this up. As I have already shown in posts over the last few days, the weeks before and after Aug. 2nd ~ 8th were normal extent losses, while the 2nd to the 8th registered a loss of 990k sq kms.

Quote
it seems that the slightly above-average drink cyclone in Late July is what prep the ice.

There certainly was some losses before the 8th, but the JAXA ASIE numbers don't show this as heavy losses until the 2nd.

Quote
it's pretty clear that 90 + percent of the ice loss in 2012 would have happened even if the GAC never happened.

True, but I think you were speaking via hyperbole and didn't actually do the math. Any given week is only going to equal about 1/26th or 1/27th of total ice loss on average, or, very roughly, around 407.4~426k kms sq. The GAC week wiped out 990k kms sq, or more than double the average, and, without searching out my own post from days ago, almost double the week before (and after) which you analyze as being when the real destruction happened.

I don't know, maybe the area numbers are completely opposite this, but I seriously doubt it.


You are literally using sea ice extent lost crime to quantify ice melting.  Or volume loss or thickness loss which is a three dimensional observation.


Between July 15th and August 5th 2012 which was the day before The Great Arctic cyclone bombed-out.

The entire Pacific side at Large.

So almost all of the Ice Melt Away.

Using sea ice extent to quantify this means nothing.

the ice as it was in the middle of July 2012 wouldn't have melted out at all if the Great Arctic Cyclone took place then.

I'm just going to animate July 15th and August 5th and if you can't see did decimation on the Pacific side of the Arctic between those dates right before the Great Arctic cyclone took place then you are being disengenous.

Because even someone who has no understanding of using AMSR2 GRAPHICS.

could pick up instantly what the animation below is showing.


AMSR2 CHANNEL 36 GHZ ... Is good at picking up water vapour/water volume/density.


Basically this scanning CHANNEL can detect water density.  This makes it good at not only detecting the ice surface.

It is good at detecting whether or not the near ice surface is liquid or frozen.

It can also detect water density not ONLY IN ICE BUT ALSO THROUGH ICE.



So this can be used as a CRUDE way to determine ice thickness/density. 

While we clearly don't have a direct measurement of the ice thickness.

Its pretty freaking obvious that on July 15th you can see that the ice had that mostly whitish color.

Like most of the Arctic Basin did


Then we see August 5th the day before The Great Arctic Cyclone bombed out.

we can clearly see that most of the ice on the Pacific side is literally almost gone.

Of course on the sea ice concentration graphics this ice up to that point.  Was above the 15% percent extent threshold.

The GAC came along and finished the job.

To me this is very obvious.  I think having this tool and this information to give us a better more detailed time line of how the 2012 arctic sea ice pack fared is fantastic, absolutely top notch.










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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4019 on: July 17, 2019, 08:22:55 PM »
Take as long as you need, Neven,  and a bit more. It is really tough even if expected.
Take care of yourself and yours.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4020 on: July 17, 2019, 08:35:32 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

I wish to pass along my condolences.  My only advice is to not try to do anything. 

Don't forget no matter what that you're human. 

And whatever the definition is it means something to be human.  So during this trying time all I can say is try your best to let yourself be human.


I promise we'll take good care of this place and you won't be here when you get back.  things will look just like they do now for the most part but I promise is for him won't be standing on broken stilts a solid foundation that you built for us will still be here
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ecojosh

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4021 on: July 17, 2019, 08:45:33 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

I am sorry to hear of your loss, Neven. You do so much to this community, and for citizen Arctic science. Take the time that you need.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4022 on: July 17, 2019, 08:53:31 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.
Sorry to hear that.
Hope all is well.

kynde

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4023 on: July 17, 2019, 08:57:31 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

Awfully sorry to hear that. Most sincere condolences.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4024 on: July 17, 2019, 09:06:56 PM »
Here a slightly different take on the situation for a change.

This could help to interpret other images on SIE from the usual sources.
As you can see, there are finer details visible that i.e. UB is not showing in such clear detail.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4025 on: July 17, 2019, 09:22:14 PM »
What Friv says. The ice was very thin in large regions of the Arctic when the GAC came. It finished all this thin ice, and extent plummeted. Had it not appeared on the scene, most of that thin ice would have melted anyway until mid-September. The GAC did make a significant contribution, but not as significant as the extent numbers show.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4026 on: July 17, 2019, 09:35:49 PM »
ECMWF 240 hour geopotential height anomaly.  I'm not interested in arguing about 10 day forecasts, I just don't think anyone is misled by it.

Clearly we got ridge & continued northern blocking despite repeated forecasts of a diminishing event. 

Whenever there's two polar cells, the gears mesh and high pressure rips in.  Easy to predict.
I am not a scientist

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4027 on: July 17, 2019, 09:36:15 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

My condolences, my friend.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4028 on: July 17, 2019, 09:43:55 PM »
My animation sucks..

But the euro and gfs now go straight back to ridging/insert insane DIPOLE anomaly.

If the 12Z EURO was correct VERBATIM.   

I NO IT WON'T BE BUT I'M SAYING YOU KNOW IN A FANTASY WORLD IF IT WAS CORRECT VERBATIM OH MY GOD THAT WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY EPIC
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bosbas

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4029 on: July 17, 2019, 09:49:14 PM »
 I am sorry for your loss, Neven.

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4030 on: July 17, 2019, 09:49:27 PM »
Never,I’m truly sorry to hear that. Thank you for ASIF. Take whatever time you need. You will be missed.
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4031 on: July 17, 2019, 09:58:30 PM »
@ philopek : Interesting take on things. Where's that map from?

Also: Friv is using allcaps again. That's when I get nervous.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4032 on: July 17, 2019, 10:16:46 PM »
If these below are comparable, I'd be surprised if there is a record low this year? And yes, that arm that sticks out most years, probably needs to be much deleted in thickness by now.
Who knows.

Compares 2012 and 2019 for this date.
I deleted ice up to one metre thick for this date in the lower ones.
From Danish Arctic Research Institutes.
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

Looking around on NASA Worldview, this model performs rather poorly judging by naked eye. Lots of areas it marks green should really be blue, and yellow that should be green. Very inconsistent.

That "arm" is rubble. What thickness?
Yes, that is a thickness map, not concentration or extent, although there is some correlation in the image to the final minimum.
It's about as accurate as any other for thickness, more so than most, year in year out. Looking around on NASA Worldview, it looks pretty good.

Take out the ice up to one metre from that thickness map for today from the DMI, squish some of the leftover together in a bit more of a lump, bumping up against the CAA and Greenland, and you have a pretty good idea what the icepack will look like mid-September.

Here's a shot of the an area of the arm from Worldview today. Looks pretty good compared to some other years when the arm survived.
But who knows.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 10:23:31 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Phil.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4033 on: July 17, 2019, 10:44:05 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

Sorry to hear that Neven, take care.

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4034 on: July 17, 2019, 11:00:34 PM »
If these below are comparable, I'd be surprised if there is a record low this year? And yes, that arm that sticks out most years, probably needs to be much deleted in thickness by now.
Who knows.

Compares 2012 and 2019 for this date.
I deleted ice up to one metre thick for this date in the lower ones.
From Danish Arctic Research Institutes.
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

Looking around on NASA Worldview, this model performs rather poorly judging by naked eye. Lots of areas it marks green should really be blue, and yellow that should be green. Very inconsistent.

That "arm" is rubble. What thickness?
Yes, that is a thickness map, not concentration or extent, although there is some correlation in the image to the final minimum.
It's about as accurate as any other for thickness, more so than most, year in year out. Looking around on NASA Worldview, it looks pretty good.

Take out the ice up to one metre from that thickness map for today from the DMI, squish some of the leftover together in a bit more of a lump, bumping up against the CAA and Greenland, and you have a pretty good idea what the icepack will look like mid-September.

Here's a shot of the an area of the arm from Worldview today. Looks pretty good compared to some other years when the arm survived.
But who knows.

Again, simple observation shows that arm is almost non-existent, and the thickness claimed by the model isn't there.



AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4035 on: July 17, 2019, 11:01:48 PM »
Neven,

I'm really sorry. Take as much time as you need, and don't force yourself to return. This is a painful time, and we'll all understand that you can't just start working on ASIF again as if nothing had happened.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4036 on: July 17, 2019, 11:11:42 PM »
Condolences Neven.

The Atlantic looking quite comfortable settling down on to the north of Greenland at 34m salinity (according to mercator model). A noticeable pulse from the Fram Strait apr10-jun1
mp4 runs from mar21-jul16
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 11:22:10 PM by uniquorn »

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4037 on: July 17, 2019, 11:23:41 PM »
If these below are comparable, I'd be surprised if there is a record low this year? And yes, that arm that sticks out most years, probably needs to be much deleted in thickness by now.
Who knows.

Compares 2012 and 2019 for this date.
I deleted ice up to one metre thick for this date in the lower ones.
From Danish Arctic Research Institutes.
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

Looking around on NASA Worldview, this model performs rather poorly judging by naked eye. Lots of areas it marks green should really be blue, and yellow that should be green. Very inconsistent.

That "arm" is rubble. What thickness?
Yes, that is a thickness map, not concentration or extent, although there is some correlation in the image to the final minimum.
It's about as accurate as any other for thickness, more so than most, year in year out. Looking around on NASA Worldview, it looks pretty good.

Take out the ice up to one metre from that thickness map for today from the DMI, squish some of the leftover together in a bit more of a lump, bumping up against the CAA and Greenland, and you have a pretty good idea what the icepack will look like mid-September.

Here's a shot of the an area of the arm from Worldview today. Looks pretty good compared to some other years when the arm survived.
But who knows.

Again, simple observation shows that arm is almost non-existent, and the thickness claimed by the model isn't there.
I think you are talking about something else. That is the Beaufort, no? I don't think this was in reference to the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. If so, then there's not much to say about that, except that it is in better shape than many years.
The arm being referred to, is an arm of thicker ice that often sticks out from the pack, pointing at (but not joined to) Siberia.
Here it is at the end of the melt-season of last year.

You are ignoring that the model you posted shows concentrated ice where I show rubble in reality, nearly up to the 80 line.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 12:52:49 AM by TeaPotty »

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4038 on: July 17, 2019, 11:25:39 PM »
@ philopek : Interesting take on things. Where's that map from?

Zoom to fit, take a shot and crop to show the preferred area:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4039 on: July 17, 2019, 11:27:46 PM »
Again, simple observation shows that arm is almost non-existent, and the thickness claimed by the model isn't there.

You are talking about something else. That is the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. Not really near the area being discussed.
This was not in reference to the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. If so, then there's not much to say about that, except that it is in better shape than many years.
The arm being referred to, is an arm of thicker ice that often sticks out from the pack, pointing at (but not joined to) Siberia.

Refer to my screenshot of Worldview above, to see the state of the ice in the arm. As good as many other years.

Here it is below at the end of the melt-season of last year.

PS. The image shows thickness, not concentration.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 11:36:41 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4040 on: July 17, 2019, 11:59:25 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.
Our condolences, Neven.
_________________________
To everyone:

Surely it is a good time to remember that Neven has provided the Blog and Forum as a free service. He has been with the burden of the cost all these years. It will be great if we can give some moral but also some economic support this time. Your support and appreciation may be more important than the amount you choose to donate.

Donation Link (from "Support & Donate" on https://neven1.typepad.com/):

https://www.paypal.com/donate/?token=gzIoM4sJ_j25xXDTGJYg5OZ8GmjDpFHAJrcDR0Sos3pdKJpw0Ra7Yn9BiJ7lTFC-7RBGvG&country.x=US&locale.x=US


Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

RealityCheck

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4041 on: July 18, 2019, 12:05:59 AM »
My condolences, Neven. As we say in Irish, ' Ar dheis De go raibh a anam' - 'May his soul be at the right hand of God'. RC
Sic transit gloria mundi

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4042 on: July 18, 2019, 12:13:49 AM »
Again, simple observation shows that arm is almost non-existent, and the thickness claimed by the model isn't there.

You are talking about something else. That is the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. Not really near the area being discussed.
This was not in reference to the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. If so, then there's not much to say about that, except that it is in better shape than many years.
The arm being referred to, is an arm of thicker ice that often sticks out from the pack, pointing at (but not joined to) Siberia.

Refer to my screenshot of Worldview above, to see the state of the ice in the arm. As good as many other years.

Here it is below at the end of the melt-season of last year.

PS. The image shows thickness, not concentration.

Why do you keep saying I am talking about something else?

I am showing you why the model is bad with pictures of rubble where it says there is concentrated ice. How many times can I repeat this in simple English? Stop ignoring what I brought up.

Compare the model's 2019 output to reality of rubble nearly up to the 80 line.
That ice in reality has no thickness compared to what the model says:

« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 12:54:46 AM by TeaPotty »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4043 on: July 18, 2019, 12:51:15 AM »
Neven, sincere condolences. ((

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4044 on: July 18, 2019, 12:59:28 AM »
the models will all be perfect the first day there's no ice ..until then ... b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4045 on: July 18, 2019, 01:17:17 AM »
talking of models .. if the 18.00 gfs comes to fruition , history will be re-written . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4046 on: July 18, 2019, 01:44:45 AM »
Neven, I am sorry for your loss. 

VaughnAn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4047 on: July 18, 2019, 02:48:29 AM »
Neven, my condolences. Please take care of yourself and yours.  My dad passed away over 3 years ago.  I know some of what you are going through.

I also want to thank you for the providing this forum.  I don't post very much; I do read it every day though.  The information you and others have posted here has changed my life and my general outlook on life.

Take care my friend.

Vaughn

dnem

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4048 on: July 18, 2019, 02:48:37 AM »
So sorry to hear about your dad, Neven.

JR-ice

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4049 on: July 18, 2019, 03:15:50 AM »
My condolences, Neven.  Even though I don't know you personally, I have appreciated your years of work here.  Peace.