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ShortBrutishNasty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4100 on: July 18, 2019, 11:48:45 PM »
Neven.  Big hug to you.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4101 on: July 18, 2019, 11:52:51 PM »

You shouldn’t post here if you can’t emotionally handle being wrong.
Others have also posted images showing much rubble where the DMI model shows high sea ice thickness, certainly at odds with other models.

But, I’m sure ur just gonna reply with ur usual logical fallacies. Truly childish and rude.
Psst, Seaicesailor (edit: I mean, Mr. Potty), you just accidentally used your other handle - 'sailor' -  in your second reply. Just thought I'd let you know.
Enjoy your continued denialism of the photographed evidence. ;D ;D ;D

Troll, please don’t post on this forum anymore.

Multiple ppl called you out and pointed out images showing you that ur wrong, that DMI is performing very poorly on thickness, and your only responses are name-calling and logical fallacies.

Really not sure what your problem is, but it’s not in the spirit of collaboration on this forum. Worse is that you take advantage of the fact that Neven is absent.
ok, Mr. Seaicesailor. Your irrational tirade started just after Neven announced, so perhaps you are the one taking advantage. But you are right Sailor. I won't post here ever again Mr. Potty.
Bye.
Thomas Barlow
« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 01:40:55 PM by Thomas Barlow »

echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4102 on: July 18, 2019, 11:56:54 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

Sorry to hear of your loss Neven.  My condolences - thinking of you and yours.

So very sorry, Neven. My dad past 5/1/17...miss him every day. Prayers...

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4103 on: July 19, 2019, 12:13:43 AM »
Since the 2012 GAC is being argued about, I thought I'd mention a couple of research papers into the question:

Parkinson and Comiso
Claim that the 2012 record was a result of the combination of preconditioning over previous decades of ice loss making the Arctic more vulnerable, and effectively put most of the blame for the record on the GAC.  The GAC sheared off a large area of ice which then melted and also made the remaining area of ice more vulnerable to melt.

Zhang et al
Claims that much of the sheared off ice would have melted anyway and that the GAC resulted in only a 150k reduction in final extent.  This is based on modelling the sea ice melt with and without the GAC.

Modelling of Arctic sea ice is off course far from perfect.  From my observations the process of shearing off the ESS section of the ice pack had well and truly begun from late June, with cyclones in June and July causing dispersion deep within the pack that enhanced melt in an area which eventually melted out totally in the GAC to shear off the ESS section.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4104 on: July 19, 2019, 12:52:07 AM »
My feeling about 2012 and the GAC is that the most important factor was the turbulence it cause in the arctic ocean which resulted in a long lasting boost to both temperature and salinity in the surface layer bring both up from the deeper arctic water. While the rapid loss of ice in the Aug 2 through 9 week was impressive, that momentum carried on into above average ice loss into Sept and a late minimum. Yes, disbursed ice will melt quicker, but for that sustained melting of fairly thick ice a heat source is required and the most effect source is water which transfers heat somewhere around 25 times better than air.

I do not think 2019  requires a GAC to challenge record minimum, but I do think it needs some consistent water turbulence to unlock the stored ocean heat of the arctic. Importing warm air and exporting ice from the CAB I don't think will be sufficient.
 

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4105 on: July 19, 2019, 12:56:17 AM »
Buoy profiles showed that the GAC brought up ocean heat from water layers that don't mix upwards in most melting seasons. It's really hard to figure how big an effect the GAC had. Thanks for reminding us of that paper. It might imply that this melting season could beat 2012 without a GAC. We'll see.

The present GFS run has shifted towards a warm dipole is not good for ice. This prog is too far out to be credible, but it has a very large scale subsidence high over Greenland so it is worthy of our consideration as a possibility for how the weather may evolve over the next 10 days.

2019 is still in a horse race with 2012.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4106 on: July 19, 2019, 02:35:49 AM »
Hrm that solid infiltration through  the bearing straight is also concerning, if that in the chukchi shallow shelf starts to fill up with saltier water and a big storm hits, the potential for some mixing out into the freshwater could be devastating to... hrm... well on the "plus" side there's not much ice left there to melt... but  if it can start a mixing processing and salt water keeps flowing in from the pacific.... anyone know a real time   source for currents and temperature / salinity depth profiles for the bearing straight? I've poked around google with no luck...

In my mind, the danger is not that warm, saline water infiltrating the Chukchi from the Pacific will melt ice currently in the Chukchi. Because there's really barely any ice currently in the Chukchi to melt.

On the other hand, a real concern is that this continues the process of converting Chukchi hydrology to more closely resemble Bering (or Pacific!) hydrology. That's actually more dangerous to the cryosphere in general than Atlantification because of the bathymetry involved; the risk is a long-term state change for a basin rather than just a slow(-ish) advance of conditions along the Arctic/Atlantic boundary.

The Chukchi is perhaps uniquely vulnerable in this regard, being both comparatively shallow and directly adjacent to a more traditionally "oceanic"-behaving ocean.

Parts of the southern Chukchi sea are already melting out in winter the past few years when warm air intrudes, while the Bering Sea barely ever has any sea ice at all, so I think that Pacification process you describe is underway. SST anomalies are off the chart across both seas, the climatology of the region has changed. So much heat has been added there this season so the delay before refreeze will further extend

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4107 on: July 19, 2019, 03:22:31 AM »
The GFS gets really ugly from about 150hrs with a massive dipole developing which, if it eventuates, will pump rubble out into the Barents Sea and Atlantic for the rest of the run,  fed by a pair of lows sucking heat plumes from Siberia and the Mackenzie valley. Ice to 84N north of the Laptev is showing signs of staring to melt out already - the area at 84N between 105 and 120 will be one of the first patches to go.

Bringing up the rear, a third low(triplets!) sucks in moisture, loaded with latent heat, coming north from the NW Pacific monsoon.

The only cold is in areas with doomed ice, perhaps the cold indicates extra melt going on?

This is still way off, so treat with caution, but it would be diabolical if it works out, I've attached wind and surface pressure, surface temperature and precipitable moisture maps from a whopping 189hr out,

Coffee Drinker

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4108 on: July 19, 2019, 03:30:49 AM »
Water temp in the Norton Sound has now reached 20C. Swim season officially open.

https://www.windy.com/-Show-add-more-layers/overlays?sst,62.945,-154.336,5,m:fsBaEX

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4109 on: July 19, 2019, 03:47:31 AM »
Water temp in the Norton Sound has now reached 20C. Swim season officially open.


lol.  Middle of winter here in southern Qld Australia, sea temperatures are 22C, and its currently way to cold for swimming as far as I'm concerned.  Of course people from colder climates may see things differently.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4110 on: July 19, 2019, 04:50:31 AM »
Regarding SST's....

I check the GFS SST map daily and things have changed quite a bit in the last week.

With the exception of the Central Archipelago, the Arctic Ocean is now surrounded by >0C SST's.

The record warm SST's in the Chuchki have now moved well east of Wrangel Island. It seems likely that these warm SST's will eventually join the warm SST's moving west from the Laptev, pinching the ESS.

The Kara has heated up very quickly and is sporting +5C temp anomalies. If you've been waiting for intrusion into the CAB on the Atlantic side, that's a good place to look in the coming weeks.

Slowly, the SST's are expanding from the coast into the Beaufort floes in front of Banks Island. It seems likely that everything west of McKenzie will melt out before season's end. That same water is slowly working along the CAB / CAA crack as well.

Baffin Bay is effectively Atlantified. Knocking on the door of the eastern CAA through those narrow channels.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4111 on: July 19, 2019, 07:17:47 AM »
Per Windy.com, several regions receiving snow at the moment.

ESS, Chuchki and CAB.

tzupancic

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4112 on: July 19, 2019, 07:38:00 AM »
Neven, my most sincere condolences.


tzupancic

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4113 on: July 19, 2019, 07:46:06 AM »
Just a quick comment on the discussion. Regarding the 2012 melt and it’s relation to 2019. Multiple sources at the time said that the ice lost during the cyclone was going to melt sooner or later. The issue appears to be to what extent the GAC event disrupted ice to the north leading to subsequent melting there that would not have occurred if the GAC event had not taken place.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4114 on: July 19, 2019, 07:48:10 AM »
Per Windy.com, several regions receiving snow at the moment.

ESS, Chuchki and CAB.
Then today/tomorrow we'll see a slow down in area at least in these regions ( 1-day change, not 5-day average). If that verifies for a few days, then one can certify the brakes are finally having some sokid effect on the train speed.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4115 on: July 19, 2019, 07:59:13 AM »
Per Windy.com, several regions receiving snow at the moment.

ESS, Chuchki and CAB.
Then today/tomorrow we'll see a slow down in area at least in these regions ( 1-day change, not 5-day average). If that verifies for a few days, then one can certify the brakes are finally having some sokid effect on the train speed.

I doubt that this is actually snow, more likely sleet (Windy.com also shows rain in the same areas). Nullschool shows temperatures hovering between -1 and +1 in the ESS with very little precipitation. But the propabilities of snow vs. rain under these circumstances is interesting, and I've made a putative attemt at a stupid question in the appropriate forum.

My understanding is that the precipitation could be liquid and even a few degrees above freezing, which would mean that this precipitation is rain and likely to cause melt even if surface temperatures are slightly below freezing. On the other hand, if the precipitation starts out as snow at a few degrees below freezing and falls in near-zero temps, then it will fall as slightly wet snow (or even sleet) and effectively stop top melting for a while.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4116 on: July 19, 2019, 08:10:15 AM »
July 14-18.

2018.

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4117 on: July 19, 2019, 08:31:12 AM »
Neven, my sincerest condolences to you and your family.

@ snowfall. Below ESRLs experimental Sea Ice forecast. They forecast some snow fall as well ( in the ESS, Laptev and Beaufort very little though) - only in the CAB the snow fall is predicted to stay (2nd gif)
Second First gif: Topaz4 from myocean. Predictes Thickness change between 19th and 27th. Max thickness is set to 1 meter. ESS collapse? We shall see. (click to play)

Edit: Messed up the fist gif.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 09:29:46 AM by S.Pansa »

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4118 on: July 19, 2019, 08:44:52 AM »
July 14-18.

2018.

Specrackular!

The action is the Chuchki between 75-80N is nasty. Closing in on the CAB.

Something funky going on near the entrance to Nares.

Edit: The eastern CAA adjacent to Ellesmere is getting that look of imminent collapse about it as well. 
« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 08:56:20 AM by Rich »

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4119 on: July 19, 2019, 10:11:58 AM »
Windy.com is showing a pretty tight cyclone bring 20-25 knot winds at 77N out in the Chuchki.

That's almost certainly the cause of that region looking like crap in Aluminum's latest image.

In the absence of much heat from the sky, the combo of wind and water are doing the work to keep momentum coming. 2019 is proving quite resourceful.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4120 on: July 19, 2019, 10:37:55 AM »
@snowfall
The issue is not the snow  but that there can be sustained refreeze of ponds for a few days.
But looking a Aluminium gif, the effect of dispersion (especially near the Chukchi/Beaufort) is amazing, and as announced above, more is coming. In a region where there will be very warm water interspected.

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4121 on: July 19, 2019, 11:24:46 AM »
ok, Mr. Seaicesailor. Your irrational assault started just after Neven announced, so perhaps you are the one taking advantage. But you are right Sailor. I won't post here ever again Mr. Potty.
Bye.
Thomas Barlow
Nobody is assaulting you, certainly I didn't. I just pointed out, as a well-intentioned comment with a winky emoticon, that you are naughty by using that model that I don't trust, so you may want to deal with your angers in a different way. Bye.
PS. I have nothing to do with Mr. Potty. You almost look paranoid. I just signed in a few days ago, I have been in a hiatus for two years and perhaps wanted to contribute commenting about this strong melting season.
s.i.s.
On the thin ice of modern life

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4122 on: July 19, 2019, 12:07:59 PM »
ok, Mr. Seaicesailor. Your irrational assault started just after Neven announced, so perhaps you are the one taking advantage. But you are right Sailor. I won't post here ever again Mr. Potty.
Bye.
Thomas Barlow
Nobody is assaulting you, certainly I didn't. I just pointed out, as a well-intentioned comment with a winky emoticon, that you are naughty by using that model that I don't trust, so you may want to deal with your angers in a different way. Bye.
PS. I have nothing to do with Mr. Potty. You almost look paranoid. I just signed in a few days ago, I have been in a hiatus for two years and perhaps wanted to contribute commenting about this strong melting season.
s.i.s.
Keep on sailing, Sailor.

The DMI thickness / volume model has few fans. It may be wrong, but it is consistently so, so I do look at it from time to time for trends, not absolute values. And at the moment the trend for volume in July is a continuation of the June trend, i.e. a record low. That trend is consistent with the June volume from PIOMAS.

So another piece of data suggesting that no matter what extent and area may say, Arctic Ice is in a bad way this year. There are no absolutes in any Arctic measures. We are damn lucky to have any at all. Link below...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2750.msg205984.html#msg205984
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4123 on: July 19, 2019, 12:21:15 PM »
welcome back sis .. I hope you are not related to 'Tea Potty' who seems to have no other role than to attack his fellow posters . 'Tea Potty calls all the kettles black' is a fair summary of the last 12 months .


    meanwhile the ice keeps melting and the forecasts keep changing . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Oscillidous

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4124 on: July 19, 2019, 01:33:26 PM »
I am just happy that the majority seeks to keep the order as is expected by Neven. Nothing shows integrity more than a willingness to set aside emotion, consider controversial ideas and remain divested in the outcome.

My prediction remains: 2nd lowest behind 2012 but it will be irrelevant because refreeze will be delayed and melt season next year will begin prematurely with nothing but puny ice to fare out the season. This season isn't about beating out some arbitrary year for me, it's a tell of a clear and imminent collapse of the ice.

On a somewhat related note, I did some research yesterday and stumbled on some learning materials and peer reviewed papers that may be of interest to folks here:

Arctic Sea Ice, Upper Atmosphere Transport, and Trade Winds lecture from U of California:

Paper on how water vapor and clouds precondition melt seasons for significant ice loss: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL060826

Warm‐air advection, air mass transformation and fog causes rapid ice melt: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL064373

I am still learning, let me know if you guys think Neven would want this somewhere else, I will remove these. Can't imagine you all haven't seen these papers before, but I thought I'd pay it forward.
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Sambuccu

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4125 on: July 19, 2019, 01:55:06 PM »
ok, Mr. Seaicesailor. Your irrational assault started just after Neven announced, so perhaps you are the one taking advantage. But you are right Sailor. I won't post here ever again Mr. Potty.
Bye.
Thomas Barlow
Nobody is assaulting you, certainly I didn't. I just pointed out, as a well-intentioned comment with a winky emoticon, that you are naughty by using that model that I don't trust, so you may want to deal with your angers in a different way. Bye.
PS. I have nothing to do with Mr. Potty. You almost look paranoid. I just signed in a few days ago, I have been in a hiatus for two years and perhaps wanted to contribute commenting about this strong melting season.
s.i.s.
Keep on sailing, Sailor.

The DMI thickness / volume model has few fans. It may be wrong, but it is consistently so, so I do look at it from time to time for trends, not absolute values. And at the moment the trend for volume in July is a continuation of the June trend, i.e. a record low. That trend is consistent with the June volume from PIOMAS.

So another piece of data suggesting that no matter what extent and area may say, Arctic Ice is in a bad way this year. There are no absolutes in any Arctic measures. We are damn lucky to have any at all. Link below...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2750.msg205984.html#msg205984

DMI volume is not at a record low. It is currently third lowest in record, unless I missed some year.
18 july 2012 : 6902 km3
18 july 2008 : 8010 km3
18 july 2019 : 8391 km3.

But it seems to be at its lowest since 2013, and more than 2000km3 lower than 2018, confirming recent important downward trend, and important melting in june, and july so far.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/txt/IceVol.txt

Sincere condolences to you, Neven, and your family.

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4126 on: July 19, 2019, 02:11:26 PM »
welcome back sis .. I hope you are not related to 'Tea Potty' who seems to have no other role than to attack his fellow posters . 'Tea Potty calls all the kettles black' is a fair summary of the last 12 months .


    meanwhile the ice keeps melting and the forecasts keep changing . b.c.

Sailor and I were attacked by a troll. And yes, I do call out trolls bc many ppl on this forum are too polite to do so. I posted images of the sea ice rubble, and got nothing but insults and accusations of being Sailor by Thomas Barlow (bc Sailor was also pointing out that DMI thickness is clearly wrong).

Don't defend hostile trolls.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 02:18:08 PM by TeaPotty »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4127 on: July 19, 2019, 02:12:28 PM »
Stay on topic please.
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, CAA, jun1-jul18

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4128 on: July 19, 2019, 02:22:30 PM »
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, CAA, jun1-jul18

This is spooky. Is that warm Atlantic water traveling up into the CAA? Seems like a mixture of export and this happening as well in Nares.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4129 on: July 19, 2019, 02:28:06 PM »
Warm southerly winds from Baffin have stopped Nares export for some time and aided melt in Lancaster and Jones Sounds.
For an indication of ocean currents please look again at the animation here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg214158.html#msg214158

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4130 on: July 19, 2019, 02:34:47 PM »

DMI volume is not at a record low. It is currently third lowest in record, unless I missed some year.
18 july 2012 : 6902 km3
18 july 2008 : 8010 km3
18 july 2019 : 8391 km3.

But it seems to be at its lowest since 2013, and more than 2000km3 lower than 2018, confirming recent important downward trend, and important melting in june, and july so far.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/txt/IceVol.txt

Poxy DMI graph does not show 2012. That didn't help.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Oscillidous

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4131 on: July 19, 2019, 02:37:22 PM »
look again at the animation here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg214158.html#msg214158


This seems really not good. Can anything put a cork on this? Seems like that whole area where those warm waters have intruded with all factors considered.
When the ice moves it cuts deep grooves
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TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4132 on: July 19, 2019, 02:37:52 PM »
How does DMI see ice that is over 2 and 3 meters thick in the region I circled?
Its all rubble...


gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4133 on: July 19, 2019, 02:45:43 PM »
How does DMI see ice that is over 2 and 3 meters thick in the region I circled?
Its all rubble...

Don't know.
Don't care.
Don't matter.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4134 on: July 19, 2019, 02:49:19 PM »
Stay on topic please.
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, CAA, jun1-jul18

Fabulous animation. We don't get many looks at the CAA like that. The steady westward movement of the ice N of the CAA is well depicted.

Davidsf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4135 on: July 19, 2019, 03:06:59 PM »
Sorry for your loss Neven. Take Care, David

Sambuccu

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4136 on: July 19, 2019, 03:19:57 PM »
How does DMI see ice that is over 2 and 3 meters thick in the region I circled?
Its all rubble...

I try an explanation, and I stop with DMI on this topic.
I think it IS 2 and 3 meters thick in Beaufort now, but indeed, in rubbles. But DMI fails to see spaces between floes.
So, where there are thick floes, it seas thick whole area, and overestimates volume. And in Beaufort now, it particularly overestimates volume because floes are thick.

I suppose when ice is covering smoothly all the area, DMI doesn't overestimate volume.
It could explain why it didn't overestimate volume in 2008, ice was thin in some important areas, but surface concentration was good.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4137 on: July 19, 2019, 03:43:29 PM »
How does DMI see ice that is over 2 and 3 meters thick in the region I circled?
Its all rubble...

An old acquaintance this, the willingness of some people to be able to tell thickness from looking at satellite pictures.

The area seems to be at least 2/3 covered in ice, with most of that being in quite large floes, up to 20 kilometers in diameter. DMI shows ice that reaches just over 2 meters in the thickest part of the arm that stretches out into the Beaufort. This is perfectly possible if the large floes are, say 3 or 3.5 meters thick.

Not that I know anything about the state of the ice there, apart from what we are all able to see in the various products. But claiming that, because the ice looks like rubble in a satellite photo, it cannot be 2 meters thick on average is just nonsense.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4138 on: July 19, 2019, 03:44:22 PM »
How does DMI see ice that is over 2 and 3 meters thick in the region I circled?
Its all rubble...

I try an explanation, and I stop with DMI on this topic.
I think it IS 2 and 3 meters thick in Beaufort now, but indeed, in rubbles. But DMI fails to see spaces between floes.
So, where there are thick floes, it seas thick whole area, and overestimates volume. And in Beaufort now, it particularly overestimates volume because floes are thick.

I suppose when ice is covering smoothly all the area, DMI doesn't overestimate volume.
It could explain why it didn't overestimate volume in 2008, ice was thin in some important areas, but surface concentration was good.

The map only shows thickness, not concentration, and DMI uses concentration data combined with the thickness to estimate volume. So it doesn't overestimate or underestimate volume based on how concentrated the ice is.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4139 on: July 19, 2019, 03:55:55 PM »
A little over a day since I have visited this thread. The contrast between those who are contributing real analysis of the melt season and those intent on disrupting this discussion is aggravating. For the latter group, would you please leave the site for a while until you can figure out how to contribute something useful?

Milwen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4140 on: July 19, 2019, 05:30:14 PM »
HYCOM Arctic ice thickness model July 19 - July 25

Looks like this year there wont be any thick ice at the end of the season. Guessing from this images, we could end up with that blue ice mass which could be only less than 1m thick :(

« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 05:36:19 PM by Milwen »

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4141 on: July 19, 2019, 05:36:11 PM »
Looking at all the data and a variation of maps with all their shadows and details, jointly with the preconditioning over the last few years, I dare to consider an area of less than 2.2 million square kilometers come mid September.

Extent is more difficult to tell because it depends on whether ice will be compact or dispersed on minimum.

Let's see and since this is an educated guess, I throw it in without intending to discuss something we can't know for sure to the bottom. Just my 2 cents on what to expect from now on.

Edit: Corrected a typo for the area value.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 11:02:45 PM by philopek »

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4142 on: July 19, 2019, 05:46:51 PM »
Uniquorn - great CAA animation. Thickness in the CAA has fallen to a point where now continued melt is seen as open water instead of just melt ponds. Expect continued area/extent loss steadily from here to minimum.

Milwen - thanks for that animation. While all thickness measures are guestimates at best, this representation appears to more closely correlate to what can be seen from the pictures that Worldview provides. The DMI representations seem less accurate and I am waiting for whatever Piomas will provide for mid-july update - hopefully later today.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4143 on: July 19, 2019, 05:48:08 PM »
I've posted a large animation on the test space here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2558.msg214433.html#msg214433
It is probably best viewed on large screen but I'm interested to know whether it works on mobile and small screen.
Please only comment on the test space thread.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4144 on: July 19, 2019, 05:53:09 PM »
The discussion of the DMI thickness model has devolved into personal insults. The horse is dead and has been beaten multiple times. That arm in the ESS, real or not, will not make it through the next month. Likewise, the thick ice floes in the Beaufort sea will melt out as they move about in the sunshine-warmed water. The ongoing personal arguments will amount to exactly nothing in a few weeks.

The people involved in the personal insults are destroying their public reputations on this forum over precisely nothing.

Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4145 on: July 19, 2019, 06:06:40 PM »

Looks like this year there wont be any thick ice at the end of the season. Guessing from this images, we could end up with that blue ice mass which could be only less than 1m thick :(

Just estimating the thickness of the ice in HYCOM model is ± correct, and further estimating an average loss of 1 m thickness until the end of the melting season, then, indeed, the remaining sea ice area will be very low  :(
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4146 on: July 19, 2019, 06:45:50 PM »
Water temp in the Norton Sound has now reached 20C. Swim season officially open.


Yes I definitely wouldnt mind swimming in the Kotzbue or Norton Sounds.  :)

Impressive SSTs all around the Alaskan coast.

The Norton Sound is very shallow (with an average depth of only 13 metres).

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4147 on: July 19, 2019, 07:39:46 PM »
HYCOM Arctic ice thickness model July 19 - July 25

Looks like this year there wont be any thick ice at the end of the season. Guessing from this images, we could end up with that blue ice mass which could be only less than 1m thick :(



Is that hole near the North Pole real?

Barty58

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4148 on: July 19, 2019, 08:02:47 PM »
Looks like Arctic ice is in 2nd Place, meaning there has Actually been a cooling trend! Not good for the AGW Agenda pushers lol, not to Mention the fact that the Antarctic has been doing just fine these past few years and it makes up the Bulk of the ice?? Al Gore back in the 90s said there was gonna be a BOE by now, looks like he was Mistaken! Hmm....

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4149 on: July 19, 2019, 08:37:47 PM »
Here is worldview from July 17 - looks like some melt ponds but in the upper right that darker area may have some actual open water between flows. The 'hole' is thinner ice not actual open water. the total width of the picture below is about 2 degrees of latitude or about 220 KM.