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UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4150 on: July 19, 2019, 08:37:47 PM »
Here is worldview from July 17 - looks like some melt ponds but in the upper right that darker area may have some actual open water between flows. The 'hole' is thinner ice not actual open water. the total width of the picture below is about 2 degrees of latitude or about 220 KM.

Laurent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4151 on: July 19, 2019, 08:53:43 PM »
In 2017 there wasn't much left https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/2017/ictn2017090912_2017091100_577_arcticictn.001.gif

The ice is melting faster near the pole, I  guess there is something underneath that does melt a little extra. Do you have so news, that event appeared regularly over the years on the salinity map but it looks to me that it is increasing in size... Have the scientists sorted that (I am not following everything anymore) is it a volcano or clathrates, something else ? This year it is quite impactful on the ice...

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4152 on: July 19, 2019, 09:06:47 PM »
The melting over the past 5 days near 85°N, 60°W (just north of Greenland) is quite astounding.




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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4153 on: July 19, 2019, 09:10:55 PM »
Nansen Sound melting and breaking up

VeganPeaceForAll

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4154 on: July 19, 2019, 09:14:05 PM »
Yes. It melts incredibly quickly.
Some of it is because of the big heatwave in Nunavat:
https://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/nunavuts-high-arctic-roasts-under-a-record-heat-wave/UK

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4155 on: July 19, 2019, 09:46:14 PM »
I had been waiting time to do tracking of a Beaufort floe from worldview bands 7.2.1, was trying to get one from near 80N, finally I chose a floe that started 75.5N, 139.6W on June 19.
This floe is oval about 80 km long (50 miles) and 40 km (25 miles) in its widest. The thickness must be according to all the models, reliable or not, around 3m since this floe comes directly from the CAB, well north of 80N. The animation ends in July 18 where the floe is in a thousand pieces. (I removed 5 repetitive frames that were absolutely white because of the storms)

It is quite fortunate that we can see both the effect of heat, and the mechanical effect of drift and storms. To me it seems clear that after every storm that passes by (white frames) the floe breaks up. Melting makes this breakup more dramatic, but when nothing is going on in terms of winds, the floe seems it could resist as long as required (after all it is a 3 m thick block). EDIT: it was
Edit2: Initial position of the floe (aprox): https://go.nasa.gov/2M3a3UA
« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 10:02:22 PM by sailor »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4156 on: July 19, 2019, 09:53:22 PM »
tracking of a Beaufort floe

Very nice, thank you! Any chance you could post a link to its (starting?) position in WV?

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4157 on: July 19, 2019, 09:55:56 PM »
Seems that every time we can get a clear worldview image of ice north of 80N the effects of 'export' are becoming clearer, either by clear cracking between flows or actual rubble/open gaps in the ice. I posted an image around 85N between 100E and 120E a few days ago up-thread that was clearly rubble with gaps. And the continued export into the Beaufort has also caused the gaps to head north between 120W and 150W

There no longer appears to be enough ice being transported toward the pole to replace the ice as it is exported toward the south and the water/air temperature is not refreezing any open water created or disguising the cracks.

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4158 on: July 19, 2019, 10:01:11 PM »
tracking of a Beaufort floe

Very nice, thank you! Any chance you could post a link to its (starting?) position in WV?

https://go.nasa.gov/2M3a3UA

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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4159 on: July 19, 2019, 10:12:53 PM »
... a Beaufort floe ... that started 75.5N, 139.6W on June 19.
...
EDIT: it was
Wow that's really recent, nice!
We have entire blocks disappearing in one month, and I already said  that with the recent stormy weather, I bet we're not gonna recognize the Beaufort sea whenever we have a clear view. The oblivion in the last two images is amazing.

pauldry600

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4160 on: July 19, 2019, 10:13:06 PM »
Was going to just comment on that. I thought the North of Greenland was a safe Arctic area for ice......not anymore.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4161 on: July 19, 2019, 10:21:22 PM »
One of things I'm focusing on is the progression of the SST's toward the Arctic interior.

I'm just going to make a note here how far the +1C temps extend at a few locations to establish a baseline and come back and compare periodically.

Banks Island - 72N
AL / CA border - 72N
Barrow - 74.5N
Bering Strait - 73N
Mid ESS - 71N
Laptev - 80N
Kara - 80N
Barents - 79.5N
Svalbard - 80N
Greenland E Coast - 74.5N

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4162 on: July 19, 2019, 10:30:46 PM »
There's a break from the storm-dominated weather coming, how long will it stay difficult to know, hope somebody comments on it.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4163 on: July 19, 2019, 10:38:35 PM »
Dipole re-establishment is looking likely at this point from D4 to D6. Ensembles and operational runs are starting to come into close agreement. Who knows how long it will last, but it does look like a decently strong classical dipole. This is likely to cause large losses in the Beaufort, CAA and CAB in about a week. The ESS and Chukchi will continue to lose ice continuously (but at a slower rate) just due to the extremely weak state of the pack there.

Extent losses will probably spike around then as well as a lot of compaction and melting (top and bottom) will combine to crush the NA/Pacific side. The Atlantic side will see some losses due to direct melt as well, but slower.

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4164 on: July 20, 2019, 12:18:23 AM »
This is a roughly 90 hour loop, it's a bit jumpy because the RAMMB slider hasn't been updating regularly, and is a shame that the high resolution I bands aren't available as this feature at about 83°N, 35°W north of Greenland would look pretty neat.  Are the ice moves away, a feature has presented itself in the ice floes in the past 48 hours. 

Whirlpool?

Contrast are boosted for detail, converted to video due to large size.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 12:26:25 AM by JayW »
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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4165 on: July 20, 2019, 12:36:00 AM »
This is a roughly 90 hour loop, it's a bit jumpy because the RAMMB slider hasn't been updating regularly, and is a shame that the high resolution I bands aren't available as this feature at about 83°N, 35°W north of Greenland would look pretty neat.  Are the ice moves away, a feature has presented itself in the ice floes in the past 48 hours. 

Whirlpool?

Contrast are boosted for detail, converted to video due to large size.

Could it be a spring?

Barty58

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4166 on: July 20, 2019, 12:37:06 AM »
Amazing 850pa Dipole Anomaly to set in next week, Retreat to be severe over the Barents and Hudson Bay most like ly. Looking at GFS Vorticity anomalies show increasing vorticity over the southeast quadrant of the Arctic land-mass, which should indicate in creasing ice gain to counteract the downward pressures hope fully!

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4167 on: July 20, 2019, 12:53:32 AM »
Looks rather like a wave propagation - the first one the original and perhaps the second a reflection of the first off the firmer pack to the lower left of the frame. Might be the result of a sudden violent down burst of air pressure (like what causes trouble for planes landing) or even an intense localized 'water spout' causing a localized reduction of pressure

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4168 on: July 20, 2019, 01:06:31 AM »
One looks like an overturning ice-berg and the two waves could be tide related.

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4169 on: July 20, 2019, 02:32:41 AM »
I think we have to keep an eye on that small but fairly strong cyclone near the laptev that is set to form in 3 days and it's set to stick around for a bit. Reason ii say this because the ice has started to become disperse around there so going to be interesting what more damage that cyclone may cause.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4170 on: July 20, 2019, 03:14:28 AM »
Seems that every time we can get a clear worldview image of ice north of 80N the effects of 'export' are becoming clearer, either by clear cracking between flows or actual rubble/open gaps in the ice. I posted an image around 85N between 100E and 120E a few days ago up-thread that was clearly rubble with gaps. And the continued export into the Beaufort has also caused the gaps to head north between 120W and 150W

There no longer appears to be enough ice being transported toward the pole to replace the ice as it is exported toward the south and the water/air temperature is not refreezing any open water created or disguising the cracks.

The area north of Laptev around 85N, 120E is melting as well as dispersing. It will look like the ESS soon enough

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4171 on: July 20, 2019, 03:51:13 AM »
https://go.nasa.gov/2M3a3UA

Thanks!

[Edit]

That's a great example. One of the biggest floes at the edge of the old ice. (I guess old ice -- at least that ice initially broke into large floes unlike adjacent ice.) Then sucked into the Beaufort blender and exploded (as you pointed out).

I'm not sure if it's exactly accurate (difficult to tell after explosion and clouds), but it currently looks something like this: https://go.nasa.gov/2JGdHSH

[PPS.] This one's worth following back too: https://go.nasa.gov/2M31M34 . Started a little bit farther into the old ice and just starting to exoplode.

Only a miracle can save this ice from melting out this season.

These details are the important stuff imho. People cite useless top-level stats all the time with almost no support for why they matter, but when the Arctic finally goes blue for good, we will look at details like these for explanations.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 04:29:21 AM by petm »

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4172 on: July 20, 2019, 09:53:50 AM »
There's a pretty cool contrast in the Nares strait between the previously fast ice that has nearly melted through, and the exported ice floes that are still pretty thick:


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4173 on: July 20, 2019, 10:28:31 AM »
Ice attached to northern Greenland cracking

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4174 on: July 20, 2019, 10:30:07 AM »
Compaction time for those floes in Beaufort and for Chukchi, among many other things, starting in a couple of days. Before that, the Beaufort receives its latest cyclonic shake. Pressure anomalies ECMWF 00z from 0h to 240h, just took the entire run, which agrees well with GFS.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4175 on: July 20, 2019, 11:13:43 AM »
Man, it is freaking windy all over the Arctic.

The Beaufort / Chuchki cyclone is looking well organized and has moved east, now centered at 80N.
Ice quality must be getting hammered.

The degree of difficulty into the CAB is getting lower and lower. It just a matter of whether coming weather takes advantage of that.

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4176 on: July 20, 2019, 11:23:12 AM »
https://go.nasa.gov/2M3a3UA

[PPS.] This one's worth following back too: https://go.nasa.gov/2M31M34 . Started a little bit farther into the old ice and just starting to exoplode.
Thanks, glad you brought that one out, since that was the original one I wanted to track, but turned out more complicated, doesn’t seem though...
Anyway I was thinking these freak blocks seem to have a life expectancy of one month or so. The huge ones in May were gone sometime in June, the one you indicate and the one I tracked, be gone in July, and there is an amazing replenishment of these huge blocks that will be gone sometime in August. See zoom of July 19.
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4177 on: July 20, 2019, 11:24:40 AM »
Was going to just comment on that. I thought the North of Greenland was a safe Arctic area for ice......not anymore.

Seems to have been taking a thrashing since the Nares ice-bridge started breaking up early/ failing to form. Iif you watch the ice- thickness for the last 7-8 years id hazard the ice west of the Wandel Sea has been the biggest overall loser of the entire pack.

ajouis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4178 on: July 20, 2019, 11:32:25 AM »
The smos data is interesting,
 there is more areas with meltponding than in 2012 at the same time, but, for the areas that are “wet” (non beige), they are less so than in 2012 within the 80 north. We will see how that melt momentum will act, especially with all the recent developments, like the crack in north greenland, and if it is affected by the current dispersion ( that should remain until the next ridging event which is forecasted in day 4-6).

Condolences, Neven, for your loss. Hoping you are ok.

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4179 on: July 20, 2019, 02:26:27 PM »
Going on four months with Global sea ice well below the line or tied for first!  Fall 2016 definitely seems in play especially with SSTAs! 

Isn't being like 2 million km below average pretty much the equivalent of a BOE?  Shouldn't we be seeing ...what, a 1.5ish temp rise just from this event alone?  I think that was roughly what was predicted for a BOE.  Given Berring's losses in the dead of winter I think we can call this the onset of a collapse... 2-3 years BOOOM. 
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4180 on: July 20, 2019, 03:44:06 PM »
There seems to be some extremely fast currents moving along the northern Greenland coast. We've all been seeing the crack that's opened up in the last week or so, and I'd earlier estimated a drift rate of some 10 - 20 km based on EOSDIS imagery.

But playing around with the RAMMB slider, a 15 hour loop from yesterday shows the small floes cloes to the coast simply racing away. One of the small ones seems to move around 40 km in 15 hours, that makes for 65km per day, amazing speed for a place where there are no documented currents?

(Click to run, less than 1MB).
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4181 on: July 20, 2019, 05:03:39 PM »
There seems to be some extremely fast currents moving along the northern Greenland coast.
<>
Mercator has the surface current flowing towards the fram north of greenland but quite a strong current from fram to nares at 34m. edit:Scale is m/s, jul1-20
15km/h wind from fram yesterday
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 05:10:19 PM by uniquorn »

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4182 on: July 20, 2019, 06:20:07 PM »
There seems to be some extremely fast currents moving along the northern Greenland coast.
<>
Mercator has the surface current flowing towards the fram north of greenland but quite a strong current from fram to nares at 34m. edit:Scale is m/s, jul1-20
15km/h wind from fram yesterday
I estimated 65 km/day which works out at 0.75 m/s - so significantly faster than what Mercator shows, but I'd guess it's the same current, with local variations.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4183 on: July 20, 2019, 06:25:11 PM »
Yep. Well it's only a model, though that would mean significant upwelling and probable mixing.
edit: Looking at worldview suomi viirs brightness temperature band15, day it suggests water temperature is colder than the ice. I suppose that can happen.Maybe light fog over the ice  https://go.nasa.gov/2JKpxLX
GFS has air temp at 1.5C yesterday.
click to run
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 06:53:16 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4184 on: July 20, 2019, 07:58:48 PM »
After testing yesterday here is large version of unihamburg amsr2-uhh, jun1-jul19.
mercator(model) SST inset, also jun1-jul19.
Best viewed full screen.   edit:click on the square arrows icon bottom right.thanks Niall
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 08:31:22 PM by uniquorn »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4185 on: July 20, 2019, 08:19:37 PM »
The longevity of the 'Crack' along most of the North American shore ["NAC: North American Crack" if it becomes a 'thing'.] (currently along most of Greenland and most of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago) is disturbing.  I believe this is a new feature (the non-short-lived nature of it this year).  Ice is this region was supposed to be where the last bastion of ice would be found, when all else 'bit the dust' . (That euphemism doesn't sound quite right, ice being made of H2O and all!  "Went up in smoke," maybe?  Ah:  "Raptured" - now we're getting to the spiritual nature of the catastrophe Western Civilization (almost entirely) has started.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4186 on: July 20, 2019, 08:24:19 PM »
After testing yesterday here is large version of unihamburg amsr2-uhh, jun1-jul19.
mercator(model) SST inset, also jun1-jul19.
Best viewed full screen (double click) on loop.

Thanks Uniquorn that's an excellent video.

You are right, to get the full detail, it works best on full screen.

The double click didn't work on my browser, but I just side scrolled across to the right, to find and click on, the full screen (square) icon,

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4187 on: July 20, 2019, 08:28:57 PM »
Went up in "Vapor" ? is perhaps closest ;) ;)

But the reason i came here is to post the following images that is NSIDC's take on
SIE while it's a trailing average as we know.

Nevertheless that makes it perhaps even more astounding because it means that they must
have 2019 much closer to 2011  in the daily numbers.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4188 on: July 20, 2019, 08:29:10 PM »
After testing yesterday here is large version of unihamburg amsr2-uhh, jun1-jul19.
mercator(model) SST inset, also jun1-jul19.
Best viewed full screen (double click) on loop.

Great job with that. Resolution is A+.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4189 on: July 20, 2019, 08:40:05 PM »
Oof. This 12z EC run is a crusher. Dipole starts setting up around tau 72 and is in full rage mode by 120 as it transitions towards a hefty Rex block. That's a CAB crusher. Probably going to see a lot of that ESS/Chukchi/Beaufort sector retreat and melt out in a hurry. CAA looks vulnerable too.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4190 on: July 20, 2019, 09:23:06 PM »
Oof. This 12z EC run is a crusher. Dipole starts setting up around tau 72 and is in full rage mode by 120 as it transitions towards a hefty Rex block. That's a CAB crusher. Probably going to see a lot of that ESS/Chukchi/Beaufort sector retreat and melt out in a hurry. CAA looks vulnerable too.

Could anyone posting specific sources link to them to make sure that everyone looks at the same image or graph. There are many pages using GFS to model their forecasts upon their data and the original of course. Just a suggestion, no problem if not.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4191 on: July 20, 2019, 09:31:19 PM »
Oof. This 12z EC run is a crusher. Dipole starts setting up around tau 72 and is in full rage mode by 120 as it transitions towards a hefty Rex block. That's a CAB crusher. Probably going to see a lot of that ESS/Chukchi/Beaufort sector retreat and melt out in a hurry. CAA looks vulnerable too.

Could anyone posting specific sources link to them to make sure that everyone looks at the same image or graph. There are many pages using GFS to model their forecasts upon their data and the original of course. Just a suggestion, no problem if not.
Many on the Forum use this one
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 10:38:30 PM by Sterks »

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4192 on: July 20, 2019, 10:25:15 PM »
The longevity of the 'Crack' along most of the North American shore ["NAC: North American Crack" if it becomes a 'thing'.] (currently along most of Greenland and most of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago) is disturbing.  I believe this is a new feature (the non-short-lived nature of it this year).  Ice is this region was supposed to be where the last bastion of ice would be found, when all else 'bit the dust' . (That euphemism doesn't sound quite right, ice being made of H2O and all!  "Went up in smoke," maybe?  Ah:  "Raptured" - now we're getting to the spiritual nature of the catastrophe Western Civilization (almost entirely) has started.)

I'm quite surprised by it and all of the gifs/animations seems to show how the central pack appears to be more mobile as a result. What do you think the implications are from this? Is this the first time this has ever appeared? I have not followed the ice long enough to remember seeing this...it's a first for me. I'm sure all of that open water will only further degrade the ice - the scary thing is that the season is far from over so I don't know what the broader implications will be.
pls!

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4193 on: July 20, 2019, 11:00:50 PM »
That low pressure is deepening north of Alaska/Canada and is pulling air in from both the Siberian coast and from Alaska and the CAA - the pressure bands are narrowing so the winds should be increasing from the current fairly mild levels. Central pressure has now dropped below 990 - been a while since I've seen a low break the 990 mark. Interesting to see how the Beaufort responds to what appears to a fairly quick transit east. It appears to weaken quite quickly as it arrives in the CAA in 48 hours.

Thanks Sterks for that link.

Crocodile23

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4194 on: July 21, 2019, 12:40:36 AM »
Interesting times to be alive and be interested in meteorology/climatology. Our generation is too close to see unprecedented things. :-\

GFS 18z is very very unusual.


Maybe 0 °C will vanish from 850 hPa sometime soon.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4195 on: July 21, 2019, 12:53:56 AM »
Nice choppy waves at Utqiagvik now. Chaotic looking. Is there anything this picture can tell us about what's going on?

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4196 on: July 21, 2019, 01:04:51 AM »
Interesting times to be alive and be interested in meteorology/climatology. Our generation is too close to see unprecedented things. :-\

GFS 18z is very very unusual.
I was scrolling backwards, saw the temperature chart first and thought "how is that even possible"? Then I saw the other one. Wow, we better hope this doesn't happen.

Coffee Drinker

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4197 on: July 21, 2019, 01:12:14 AM »
May I ask whats so special and unusual about the temperature chart? For a layman this is not obvious straight away.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4198 on: July 21, 2019, 01:50:57 AM »
May I ask whats so special and unusual about the temperature chart? For a layman this is not obvious straight away.

What I noticed was a forecast of 12 degrees C north of Ellesmere Island and a wide area out over the ice above 8 degrees.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4199 on: July 21, 2019, 02:13:26 AM »
Yes they are high upper air temperatures but as we have often pointed out before on this forum the temperatures at 2m above the surface of the ice can be a lot lower. That is in places where there is ice present.

Here is the 2m temperatures from the same model for the same time. Of course it does still show temperatures above zero but not at all the same as at the 850hPa level.

But this is all a bit academic. Bottom line the Arctic is going through a really tough time. 😐