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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4200 on: July 21, 2019, 03:21:13 AM »
The longevity of the 'Crack' along most of the North American shore ["NAC: North American Crack" if it becomes a 'thing'.] (currently along most of Greenland and most of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago) is disturbing. 

In spite of what the weather models sometimes report, the actual temperatures in the northern CAA have been very warm over the past several days.   As discussed in previous posts, on July 14, 2019 the weather station at Alert, Nunavut hit 21C the warmest temperature ever measured north of 80 degrees Lat. 

A team of field researchers just wrapped up a 2 week trip on Axel Heiberg and reported widespread permafrost melting.  One of the researchers, professor Gordon Oz Osinski, said “in the 20 yrs since I started fieldwork in the Arctic I’ve never had such a long stretch of sun & temperatures in the teens [C].”  To find the thread, open Twitter and search #AxelHeiberg2019. 

Below is the link to the gif showing the permafrost melting.  It is definitely worth a click.  Pretty incredible sight when you consider that is happening at 79.8 degrees north latitude!

https://t.co/5AFY1BKTVr

I think the crack that has opened (for a few weeks now) north of the CAA will likely be persistent, and could be significant this year. 



« Last Edit: July 21, 2019, 04:00:41 AM by Rod »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4201 on: July 21, 2019, 03:44:25 AM »
Despite the relatively benign weather of the past week, and spreading of the past by low domination, JAXA continues its rapid decline, down  380K km2 the past 3 days, and 920K over the past 10. Its now 150000 km2 ahead of 2012 on the date,

I can't see those numbers dropping off with the return of heat along the Russian coast, large moisture injections from the Pacific and the upcoming blowtorch from the Mackenzie valley onto the Beaufort sea and parts north of it. Especially given so much ice that's ready to melt.

I can't see a non- top 2 finish now, that would mean losing less than 3000000 km2 through Sept. A couple more 120K days now will pretty much guarantee it.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4202 on: July 21, 2019, 04:01:37 AM »
here is large version of unihamburg amsr2-uhh, jun1-jul19.

Fantastic thank you so much. Ice looks scary bad far north of 80.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4203 on: July 21, 2019, 06:46:08 AM »
The 00z GFS is cataclysmic. The 12z EURO was not much different. It appears as though the CAA and CAB are about to take a major hit from D4-D10. We are already at record lows or close. I think the pre-conditioning in May and June combined with this upcoming pattern portends a likely chance of a new record low in terms of area / extent, and I think it is looking like we may now smash 2012's volume minimum. I could easily see a refreeze substantially worse than 2016-17.

Sublime_Rime

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4204 on: July 21, 2019, 06:53:17 AM »
00Z run of the GFS setting up dipole by 72hrs, full ridge from CAA/CAB/north Greenland by 120, persists through 240+, pretty consistent with ECMFW 12Z...where's Friv...?

Would also like to share my condolences, and gratitude to Neven. Admiration for all your efforts from a longtime lurker.


Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4205 on: July 21, 2019, 08:00:22 AM »
July 16-20.

2018.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4206 on: July 21, 2019, 08:52:53 AM »
00Z run of the GFS setting up dipole by 72hrs, full ridge from CAA/CAB/north Greenland by 120, persists through 240+, pretty consistent with ECMFW 12Z...where's Friv...?

Would also like to share my condolences, and gratitude to Neven. Admiration for all your efforts from a longtime lurker.

Yeah, the weather seems to be pretty bad for ice, where is Fri....?

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4207 on: July 21, 2019, 09:10:47 AM »
My short-term prognostications have been bullied from/encouraged to leave the the data forum, so I will post these here from now on. Oh, the drama of on-line fora!

;-)

All data JAXA ASI Extent.


Quote
Quote
7/19/2019 stands at 7.07M
7/20/2011 fell 50k km sq to 6.95M km sq.

Call it -100k to 6.97

7/20/2011 stood at 6.95M km sq.
7/20/2019 stands at 6.98M km sq. after 94k fall, rounded.

7/21/2011 fell to 6.88, a drop of 70k.
7/21/2019 needs a drop of 100k+ km sq for a record low for this date.

Analysis: Looking at Windy, compaction should be the norm for the 21st everywhere but western Siberia, but there is room for expansion and the strongest winds are there. Looks like a somewhat balanced day of expansion and compacting with more area contracting, so a little more than average. Call it a 100k drop for JAXA and tie the current low, +/- 10k.

Extended forecast:
On July 2th, 2012 overtakes 2011 and remains the low until well after the Sept minimum. 2012 takes a big dive from 8/2 to 8/10 (I had previously misstated the drop as ending on the 9th) which it would be unlikely for 2019 to match given it was at least partially affected by the GAC (Great Arctic Cyclone.) As has been discussed elsewhere, one paper posited the warmth dredged up from that storm affected the minimum in 2012. Looking at the end of summer wide, droopy bottom, I'd agree. But the key really is that massive loss from 8/2 to 8/10. Whether that would have been lost more slowly or not is an academic issue: Absolutely unprovable as history has happened and will not be rewritten.

My point? The next four+ days may see extensive losses due to possible cyclones and dipoles. As you can see below, only 72k/day is needed to be in record territory before the 25th and the following three days' -125k  average for 2012. I think 2019 may be in record territory tomorrow or the next day, and 100k+ losses over the next week may set 2019 up to keep pace with 2012's big week, making a new minimum that much more likely.

If 2019 is well back of 2012 on 8/10, I don't see a new minimum.

7/25/2012 fell to 6.62M km sq., record low for this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of 72k km sq. for a record low for this date.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4208 on: July 21, 2019, 09:28:51 AM »
Analysis: Looking at Windy, compaction should be the norm for the 21st everywhere but western Siberia, but there is room for expansion and the strongest winds are there. Looks like a somewhat balanced day of expansion and compacting with more area contracting, so a little more than average. Call it a 100k drop for JAXA and tie the current low, +/- 10k.
I'm not sure Windy is a good tool for looking at the winds - Nullschool has the vast advantaget of showing the globe rather than that irritatingly stretched semi-Mercator projection that Windy uses.

And looking at Nullschool, I notice a strong northerly wind in the Laptev, presumably leading to dispersion, and a cyclone over the Beaufort, and cyclones tend to disperse rather than compact the ice, so presumably leading to dispersion there. Other areas have little to no wind or (over Barents) wind that blows along the ice front.

So my take from Nullschool would be that the 21st has dispersion in those places where there is any wind to speak off.

As per Aluminium's gif above, dispersion rather than compaction seems to have been the norm recently, even so we have seen drops of over 330.000 km2 in the last three days. What the drop will be today I've no idea, any guess would just be a the result of random firing of neurons since I'm totally lacking in the prerequisits for prognostications: Empirical data combined with a tested predictive model.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4209 on: July 21, 2019, 09:49:02 AM »
In the spirit of Aluminum, I made a July 16-20 using the alternative AMSR2 color style mp4. So last 5 days.


The actions of ice along CAA, and the Atlantic push is interesting. What happened to it on 7-20? Also looks like that southerly dispersed Laptev a bit.


Click to play, should be small, few hundred kb.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4210 on: July 21, 2019, 09:53:07 AM »
In spite of what the weather models sometimes report, the actual temperatures in the northern CAA have been very warm over the past several days.   ...

Below is the link to the gif showing the permafrost melting.  It is definitely worth a click.  Pretty incredible sight when you consider that is happening at 79.8 degrees north latitude!

https://t.co/5AFY1BKTVr

I think the crack that has opened (for a few weeks now) north of the CAA will likely be persistent, and could be significant this year.
That video is scary, as his author says...
Yes even if melting ice anchors temps to near 0, just a bit inland and uphill it can be much worse.

In all places it is energy (heat) and not temperature what matters, and 850 hpa level (1500 m or 5000 ft high) high temperatures over the ice mean hot air entering the pack, or descending (strong high pressure) or both, so it may not indicate ice surface temp but atmospheric energy flux.
These last days the atmospheric energy flux has been negative, the direct sun energy reaching has been low, yet all the energy already stored in the pack and around the pack kept things going. Storm churning also increases melt rate since it “pulverizes” ice... Probably melting by now is losing its momentum at places, but the weather seems to change again.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4211 on: July 21, 2019, 10:23:31 AM »
In the spirit of Aluminum, I made a July 16-20 using the alternative AMSR2 color style mp4. So last 5 days.


The actions of ice along CAA, and the Atlantic push is interesting. What happened to it on 7-20? Also looks like that southerly dispersed Laptev a bit.


Click to play, should be small, few hundred kb.

Cool... At 80N, you can see the imprint where the core of the cyclone has hollowed out the ice.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4212 on: July 21, 2019, 10:42:10 AM »

In spite of what the weather models sometimes report, the actual temperatures in the northern CAA have been very warm over the past several days.   As discussed in previous posts, on July 14, 2019 the weather station at Alert, Nunavut hit 21C the warmest temperature ever measured north of 80 degrees Lat. 

A team of field researchers just wrapped up a 2 week trip on Axel Heiberg and reported widespread permafrost melting.  One of the researchers, professor Gordon Oz Osinski, said “in the 20 yrs since I started fieldwork in the Arctic I’ve never had such a long stretch of sun & temperatures in the teens [C].”  To find the thread, open Twitter and search #AxelHeiberg2019. 

Below is the link to the gif showing the permafrost melting.  It is definitely worth a click.  Pretty incredible sight when you consider that is happening at 79.8 degrees north latitude!

https://t.co/5AFY1BKTVr

I think the crack that has opened (for a few weeks now) north of the CAA will likely be persistent, and could be significant this year.

What you're seeing in the video is likely part of what's called a thaw slump. While the number of them has increased quite dramatically in the Arctic over the last few decades, they are also just a normal occurrence in many paraglacial landscapes and have occurred in the Arctic for millennia.
They happen when layers of thick buried ice get exposed to the air. This can be by erosion from waves, rivers, or from things like heavy rain, which can cause the surface permafrost to detach. When the ice melts back, the soil on top slides down, mixes with the melt water and forms large flowing mud lobes at their front.
Here's 2 examples from my own fieldwork in 2017

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4213 on: July 21, 2019, 10:43:28 AM »
It's beginning to appear that the solid white area on this map is possibly the approximate region that will be ice-covered at minimum. Can anyone estimate the area?


Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4214 on: July 21, 2019, 12:44:20 PM »
It's beginning to appear that the solid white area on this map is possibly the approximate region that will be ice-covered at minimum. Can anyone estimate the area?


That looks like an overly optimistic scenario to me regarding the Atlantic side and CAA.

NotaDenier

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4215 on: July 21, 2019, 04:03:11 PM »
Hi everyone long time reader 1st time poster. I’ve been watching the arctic since 2012, more in the summer less in the winter. More in the high melt years less in the low.
I want to thank Neven for this site and all the other contributors, too many to name but especially gentrocrat. I thought the other things with a description of the current weather was valuable to someone reading back in 10 years from now. Also Friv keeps it fun. Anyone else miss Dosbat? That dude was smart. Damn you brexit...

Anyways I never posted because I had nothing to add to the discussion. Keep up the good work everyone. I appreciate everyone who posts here even if I didn’t mention you.

Does everyone have to answer these questions every time? Or just cause I’m new? I know all the answers anyways... ;D

Edit forgot friv.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2019, 04:10:50 PM by NotaDenier »

ajouis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4216 on: July 21, 2019, 04:36:36 PM »
It looks like the difference between 2012 and 2019 grows on smos.
Pending the piomas update, it seems that the 2019 melting momentum is continuing everywhere, whilst 2012 starts to have a growing area where top melt has ended (beige pixel), meaning that there would be no safe zones in 2019 with very high thickness loss, even in the pole. 2012 has passed from a stronger melt where it was melting (maybe due to differences in ice that allowed for a wetter upper layer to be sustained), to only visibly stronger melt in the atlantic side, which means that 2019 is likely to remain lacking on that side but that it is overall better suited than 2012 to finish first in that data set,  given that the atlantic side is mostly determined by side melt, and 2019 is better keeping the melt momentum everywhere else.
The data also shows continued melt on the greenland north coast, while bremen has shown that concentration is low there, so, unless the weather pattern that allows fram export is restored, the crack will continue to grow, which is unusual so early in the season and could be the symptom of a changed paradigm.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2019, 07:06:06 PM by ajouis »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4217 on: July 21, 2019, 05:55:53 PM »
The smoke-cane in Siberia reminds me of the situation pre-GAC 2012. There was a similar amount of smoke. I am not sure if it is causative or correlative but I would think it is a bit of both.


UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4218 on: July 21, 2019, 06:05:32 PM »
Based on Worldview images of the large gaps forming in what had been solidly packed ice around 85N from the Laptev bite around toward the Greenland sea (about 135E to close to 0E longitude) it looks to me that with a little bit of help from weather/wind the Atlantic side could collapse pretty quickly. The ice edge for that whole Atlantic side is also showing the serious wavy lines of signiciant melt in both the Laptev bite and the Barents:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Reference_Labels,Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-07-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=572930.6328274473,-717961.6424984793,1175298.6328274473,-391049.64249847934&ab=off&as=2019-06-07T00%3A00%3A00Z&ae=2019-06-14T00%3A00%3A00Z&av=3&al=true
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Reference_Labels,Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-07-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=641026.6328274473,-106377.64249847934,1243394.6328274473,220534.35750152066&ab=off&as=2019-06-07T00%3A00%3A00Z&ae=2019-06-14T00%3A00%3A00Z&av=3&al=true

Edit: The links are for specified areas of worldview from 20 July when the areas of ice were clear of cloud

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4219 on: July 21, 2019, 06:13:32 PM »
Yep. Well it's only a model, though that would mean significant upwelling and probable mixing.
edit: Looking at worldview suomi viirs brightness temperature band15, day it suggests water temperature is colder than the ice. I suppose that can happen.Maybe light fog over the ice  https://go.nasa.gov/2JKpxLX
GFS has air temp at 1.5C yesterday.
click to run

What is the name of the island in the picture ? SE Kap Bridgman. I can find Kaffeklubben , northernmost terrafirma , but not the island in question.

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4220 on: July 21, 2019, 06:56:27 PM »
GFS 12z doesn't mess around... A huge high pressure area spanning the entire arctic sea starts forming at around +72h, and stays the entire rest of the run (at least up to the 312h processed so far).

I think this is what the kids would describe as "whack".


DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4221 on: July 21, 2019, 06:59:53 PM »
Ugly!

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4222 on: July 21, 2019, 07:02:41 PM »
That is cataclysmically terrible. Speaking of awful, where has weatherdouche88 gone?

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4223 on: July 21, 2019, 07:06:17 PM »
12z CMC agrees.



I don't mean to be dramatic but if this comes to pass we are going to come 1-2M KM^2 away from a BOE and we may see a volume minimum 20-40% below 2012. The consequences this autumn and winter for the mid-latitudes (and elsewhere) will be very dire. Oh well.

Crocodile23

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4224 on: July 21, 2019, 07:24:02 PM »
This huge high pressure area that is forecasted, can only be compared to 2015 event.

Now(+6 days GFS 12z):


Now(+7 days GFS 12z):


2015:


2013 had a big ridge too but not that big.


One difference with the 2015 event was that that lasted 3 days while this from GFS forecasts seems to last 5-6 days(!).

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4225 on: July 21, 2019, 07:50:33 PM »
NSIDC ASIE 15% is finally record low for the date.  New record low for volume & area 2019 is locked in.
I am not a scientist

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4226 on: July 21, 2019, 07:55:08 PM »
NSIDC ASIE 15% is finally record low for the date.  New record low for volume & area 2019 is locked in.

Paging weatherdouche88! Weatherdouche88, do you copy?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4227 on: July 21, 2019, 07:57:33 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/2JKpxLX
What is the name of the island in the picture ? SE Kap Bridgman. I can find Kaffeklubben , northernmost terrafirma , but not the island in question.
If you mean the large blob north of Greenland, it is cloud. It shows up better when you click to activate the gif.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4228 on: July 21, 2019, 08:00:57 PM »
That is cataclysmically terrible. Speaking of awful, where has weatherdouche88 gone?

People here abandon certain threads when their myopic view goes awry. They always return though.

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4229 on: July 21, 2019, 08:09:44 PM »
12z euro running now. Matching the GFS so far at 72h

Slim

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4230 on: July 21, 2019, 08:37:19 PM »
12z CMC agrees.



I don't mean to be dramatic but if this comes to pass we are going to come 1-2M KM^2 away from a BOE and we may see a volume minimum 20-40% below 2012. The consequences this autumn and winter for the mid-latitudes (and elsewhere) will be very dire. Oh well.

Dire consequences yes. But at the same time if we do not have some sort of extremely shocking event, nothing is likely to change our current course towards making things worse and worse. The population needs a wake up event of startling magnitude.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4231 on: July 21, 2019, 08:40:43 PM »
12z CMC agrees.



I don't mean to be dramatic but if this comes to pass we are going to come 1-2M KM^2 away from a BOE and we may see a volume minimum 20-40% below 2012. The consequences this autumn and winter for the mid-latitudes (and elsewhere) will be very dire. Oh well.

Dire consequences yes. But at the same time if we do not have some sort of extremely shocking event, nothing is likely to change our current course towards making things worse and worse. The population needs a wake up event of startling magnitude.
The course will only continue. There is no fix. Any fix removes aerosols and then we have a BOE and the world ends. The best path forward is the current path. There is nothing you, me, or anyone else can do about it. If you think people will wake up when we have a near-BOE you are sadly mistaken. We still have weatherdouche88 posting about how nothing is happening this year, and it is actually tolerated and sanctioned on this forum given the fact he has not been banned -- if that's the case here, you think there will be change elsewhere? LOL. Ya right.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4232 on: July 21, 2019, 08:59:21 PM »
Whoa.  All this talk about the social implications.  Let's focus *in this, the melting season thread*

I'm saving my big splash for when Neven gets back, out of respect. 

https://youtu.be/sGUNPMPrxvA?t=37
I am not a scientist

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4233 on: July 21, 2019, 09:01:27 PM »
July 1-20, 5-day lagging median.

Click to animate.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4234 on: July 21, 2019, 09:07:58 PM »
The EC 12z does not show as strong centered high, but more in line with what it was forecasting before. It’s still a big weather change, persisting probably until end of month.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp

Slim

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4235 on: July 21, 2019, 09:09:09 PM »
Whoa.  All this talk about the social implications.  Let's focus *in this, the melting season thread*

I'm saving my big splash for when Neven gets back, out of respect. 

https://youtu.be/sGUNPMPrxvA?t=37

Yes, sorry couldn't resist. Bbr is probably correct in what he stated in his response to me. I'll leave it at that to avoid derailing the thread.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4236 on: July 21, 2019, 09:10:45 PM »
The world is on fire. 2012 vs. 2019. Oh well. The sheer number of fires this year is astounding. Click attached to animate.


Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4237 on: July 21, 2019, 09:21:37 PM »
July 1-20, 5-day lagging median.

Click to animate.
Disappearing at all its edges, apart from Beaufort and Grønland Seas...

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4238 on: July 21, 2019, 09:22:26 PM »
The world is on fire. 2012 vs. 2019. Oh well. The sheer number of fires this year is astounding. Click attached to animate.

Where is this?

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4239 on: July 21, 2019, 09:30:31 PM »
Why would a huge high pressure ridge be bad for ice retention? Just because insolation is still high for a few more weeks? But wouldn't it also bring an end to the winds? Wouldn't big storms be worse?

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4240 on: July 21, 2019, 09:31:50 PM »
GFS 12z doesn't mess around... A huge high pressure area spanning the entire arctic sea starts forming at around +72h, and stays the entire rest of the run (at least up to the 312h processed so far).

I think this is what the kids would describe as "whack".

That is a dipole even I can recognize.
This space for Rent.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4241 on: July 21, 2019, 09:33:07 PM »
The world is on fire. 2012 vs. 2019. Oh well. The sheer number of fires this year is astounding. Click attached to animate.

Where is this?

Why would a huge high pressure ridge be bad for ice retention? Just because insolation is still high for a few more weeks? But wouldn't it also bring an end to the winds? Wouldn't big storms be worse?
Not to be a b*tch but there is a stupid questions thread for a reason.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,143.0.html

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4242 on: July 21, 2019, 09:34:17 PM »
One of things I'm focusing on is the progression of the SST's toward the Arctic interior.

I'm just going to make a note here how far the +1C temps extend at a few locations to establish a baseline and come back and compare periodically.

Banks Island - 72N
AL / CA border - 72N
Barrow - 74.5N
Bering Strait - 73N
Mid ESS - 71N
Laptev - 80N
Kara - 80N
Barents - 79.5N
Svalbard - 80N
Greenland E Coast - 74.5Nh

2 days later....

The SST's for the three Beaufort locations and Kara Sea have advanced ~ 0.5 degrees (30 nautical miles) toward the pole. The others have remained roughly the same. I'm rounding to nearest 0.5.

Small sample, short duration and the science of the factors which determine the rate of progression are above my pay grade.

At this point, just anecdotal data.



Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4243 on: July 21, 2019, 09:39:43 PM »
July 1-20, 5-day lagging median.

Click to animate.
That's an awesome animation, awesome technique and I'd like to know if it is explained somewhere in the Forum... Thank you

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4244 on: July 21, 2019, 09:46:33 PM »
The world is on fire. 2012 vs. 2019. Oh well. The sheer number of fires this year is astounding. Click attached to animate.

Where is this?

Why would a huge high pressure ridge be bad for ice retention? Just because insolation is still high for a few more weeks? But wouldn't it also bring an end to the winds? Wouldn't big storms be worse?
Not to be a b*tch but there is a stupid questions thread for a reason.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,143.0.html

Since we're always presented with insolation during high pressure as the main reason for that to be bad for the ice and since the sun-angle where there is still more or less solid ice is already quite flat/low, this was by no means a stupid question.

Some exaggerations here and doomsday-buzzword feeds and sensationalism here are way more stupid IMO.

Last but not least call someone who ASKS a question instead of babbling away stupid is
bad etiquette and the most stupid at the end of the day are those who don't ask.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4245 on: July 21, 2019, 09:48:03 PM »
The world is on fire. 2012 vs. 2019. Oh well. The sheer number of fires this year is astounding. Click attached to animate.

Where is this?

Why would a huge high pressure ridge be bad for ice retention? Just because insolation is still high for a few more weeks? But wouldn't it also bring an end to the winds? Wouldn't big storms be worse?
Not to be a b*tch but there is a stupid questions thread for a reason.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,143.0.html

Since we're always presented with insolation during high pressure as the main reason for that to be bad for the ice and since the sun-angle where there is still more or less solid ice is already quite flat/low, this was by no means a stupid question.

Some exaggerations here and doomsday buzzword feeds here are way more stupid IMO.
OK, fine, Siberia isn't on fire, the Arctic ice isn't already at a record low, and the forecast wouldn't beat 2012 by a mile. You are totally right. And we definitely are NOT only 40 days from solar maximum at the times of the impending extreme forecast.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4246 on: July 21, 2019, 09:56:14 PM »
It's that simple: place the question in Stupid Questions, and let bbr answer. I bet he's clueless as f**k

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4247 on: July 21, 2019, 09:58:08 PM »
It was meant as a genuine question. As far as I understand it, there is controversy about whether storms or sun are worse for the ice in the late season. There seems to be good reason to suspect that the 2012 GAC had a lot to do with that year's enhanced late-season melt. Well, I guess if we do end up with widespread high pressure instead of big storms this year, we can test that hypothesis (as Neven hopes), since so far this year's setup is arguably close to as bad if not worse than 2012.

But in any case, yes, I've moved it to Stupid Questions: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,143.msg214841.html#msg214841 .

Thanks.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4248 on: July 21, 2019, 10:01:06 PM »
It is going to get quite warm AND sunny over the CAB and Beaufort. This is pretty bad I guess. Attached ecmwf 12h run, T+6 (but looks like this from T+4 to T+10 basically), 850 hPa temp anomaly (yellow warm, blue cold)

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4249 on: July 21, 2019, 10:03:05 PM »
There's a strong persistent dipole developing in the ECMWF that will last through the 10 day forecast period if it verifies. The heat and subsidence will continue over northern Canada and Greenland until further notice.

This is the weather that will put 2019 ahead of 2012 if this forecast verifies and I think it will because it is consistent with climatology and persistence of this summer's weather patterns.

FYI, the 850 temps we have seen in the past week do not indicate negative heat balance as far as I know. In some areas they indicate rising motions over the ice water. Clouds over these areas would have limited radiative heat loss and loss of energy from the ocean/ ice system. Warm air advection has been strong in the Kara sea over the past few days. Over all that has kept temperatures above freezing in most of the Arctic and has led to continued flow of heat from the atmosphere to the ice on average in the Arctic.