My short-term prognostications have been bullied from/encouraged to leave the the data forum, so I will post these here from now on. Oh, the drama of on-line fora!
;-)
All data JAXA ASI Extent.
7/19/2019 stands at 7.07M
7/20/2011 fell 50k km sq to 6.95M km sq.
Call it -100k to 6.97
7/20/2011 stood at 6.95M km sq.
7/20/2019 stands at 6.98M km sq. after 94k fall, rounded.
7/21/2011 fell to 6.88, a drop of 70k.
7/21/2019 needs a drop of 100k+ km sq for a record low for this date.
Analysis: Looking at Windy, compaction should be the norm for the 21st everywhere but western Siberia, but there is room for expansion and the strongest winds are there. Looks like a somewhat balanced day of expansion and compacting with more area contracting, so a little more than average. Call it a 100k drop for JAXA and tie the current low, +/- 10k.
Extended forecast:
On July 2th, 2012 overtakes 2011 and remains the low until well after the Sept minimum. 2012 takes a big dive from 8/2 to 8/10 (I had previously misstated the drop as ending on the 9th) which it would be unlikely for 2019 to match given it was at least partially affected by the GAC (Great Arctic Cyclone.) As has been discussed elsewhere, one paper posited the warmth dredged up from that storm affected the minimum in 2012. Looking at the end of summer wide, droopy bottom, I'd agree. But the key really is that massive loss from 8/2 to 8/10. Whether that would have been lost more slowly or not is an academic issue: Absolutely unprovable as history has happened and will not be rewritten.
My point? The next four+ days may see extensive losses due to possible cyclones and dipoles. As you can see below, only 72k/day is needed to be in record territory before the 25th and the following three days' -125k average for 2012. I think 2019 may be in record territory tomorrow or the next day, and 100k+ losses over the next week may set 2019 up to keep pace with 2012's big week, making a new minimum that much more likely.
If 2019 is well back of 2012 on 8/10, I don't see a new minimum.
7/25/2012 fell to 6.62M km sq., record low for this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of 72k km sq. for a record low for this date.