All data JAXA ASI Extent.
7/21/2011 fell to 6.88, a drop of 70k.
7/21/2019 needs a drop of 100k+ km sq for a record low for this date.
2019 falls 120k km sq to 6.86M km sq.
2019 sets a new record for the date (as predicted a couple days ago on the data thread.)
7/22/2011 stood at 6.81M km sq. on this date.
7/21/2019 stands at 6.86M km sq., needing a drop of > 50k km sq. to set a record for the date.
Edit (forgot the prediction): Call it another 100k+. Mmm... 105+/-10k.
Analysis: Despite the mixed signals from winds alone, the cyclone in the Beaufort and winds coming from the Pacific and Atlantic appear to have won the day as they are the areas I see compaction: Chukchi, west Beaufort, northern Kara and northern Barrents. ASMR supports all this showing deterioration on the Pacific side.
Given the momentum, another day of above-average losses seems likely. For the 22nd, strong-ish cyclonic winds towards the central CAB in the Laptev, the Beaufort cyclone and cancelling or lighter winds elsewhere indicate another above average drop in extent. Adding in ASMR from 7/21 reinforces this as do continued warm SSTs.
(I am beginning to hate clouds. I like to look at the ice myself to interpret all the data coming in. Grrr...)
Updated:
7/25/2012 fell to 6.62M km sq., overtaking 2011 and setting a record low for this date. 2019 needs an average daily drop of > 60k km sq. for a record low for this date. Conditions suggest this will happen. I'm not quite confident enough to call it certain, but > 90% chance, imo. Even if so, I'd expect 2012 to be lowest again sometime between 7/26 and 8/10 due to > 300k km sq drop at the end of July and the > 1M km sq drop from 8/2 ~ 8/10/12, but that specific prediction is very premature.