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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4350 on: July 23, 2019, 12:56:29 AM »
Agree with Michael except for Beaufort. Yes those blocks are thicker but the Beaufort sea is very peculiar in how it churns and melts those huge thick blocks in a matter of a month. And this year, various contributors have provided supporting evidence of this.

Now it may happen that it continues getting import of thick ice from the CAB, in which case it is possible a remnant of very broken ice survives till September. But this has to show negatively in the pack. The imported ice does not come from the void.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4351 on: July 23, 2019, 12:58:55 AM »
I would anticipate multiple double / triple-century drops in extent over the next ten days and sustained 100K+ area drops accompanying.



I want to be confident that you're wrong, but with volume at a record low, who knows?
Yep, we shall see. 8/1 will probably be the worst day due to the monthly masking effect on the first of each month, if we get a 300K+ drop it is probably going to be then.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4352 on: July 23, 2019, 01:55:57 AM »
The Kara/Northern Beaufort dipole is bad for the ice. The actual melt processes can be very complex especially at this time of year and the last few posts have highlighted various elements at play.

We've got sun/ocean/rain/snow/ice all at play. But it is far too simplistic to look at just one measure (such as 850hPa temperatures) and infer that subsidence will melt the ice. That's not how it works.

The ESRL expermiental sea ice pages drill down far more detail. It takes considerable time to tease through and assimilate the wealth of forecasts on that page.

I've had a look through their forecasts on precipitation, top melt, bottom melt and albedo changes over the next 5 or 6 days.

First image below is the top melt at +42. At this time the low over the Laptev increases top melt with wind and most likely, rain.

Next image is of top melt at +126. Now we see a line of considerable top melt spreading up through the centre of the Arctic.

This area of top melt appears just after a belt of precipitation passes through, presumably rain/sleet. This is the boundary between the dipole. A classic frontal zone.

The ice under the centre of the high is showing very little or no top melt.

Meanwhile underneath, bottom melt is slower to change but is slowly spreading into the centre as the arctic ocean is still warming and will be probably for another 2 months. Bottom melt increases especially when onshore (to the ice edge) winds drive the warming open water currents under the ice. Persistent winds attack the Beaufort edge and bottom melt peaks there at about +132 (next image). Later in the forecast winds swing back more northerly in that region as the high moves over towards the centre of the Arctic and bottom melt decreases. 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/seaice/
 

 
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 02:07:38 AM by Niall Dollard »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4353 on: July 23, 2019, 01:58:02 AM »
The snow/ice albedo image is also very telling. The image at +168 compared with +6 shows a considerable drop over the week. Especially on the Russian side.

Notice that the area directly under the centre of the high, shows little decrease in albedo.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4354 on: July 23, 2019, 02:19:36 AM »
I smell a poll opportunity. When will the Chuchki go ice free (< 10k km2 area) this year?

I'll say it hits 8,819 km2 on 8/8/19.

There"s a lot of prediction energy on the thread. Let's give it an outlet.

Oscillidous

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4355 on: July 23, 2019, 02:53:38 AM »


Slater's 50 Day Lead projects 2019 to be the new low by a good margin. Interesting how quickly things can change.
When the ice moves it cuts deep grooves
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Ktb

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4356 on: July 23, 2019, 03:09:22 AM »

Slater's 50 Day Lead projects 2019 to be the new low by a good margin. Interesting how quickly things can change.

No it doesn't
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4357 on: July 23, 2019, 03:30:09 AM »
On the thickness animation Wipneus posted on the PIOMAS thread, the Lincoln Sea appears to have lost a huge amount of thickness, appears to my eye like a metre or more in 15 days. If I'm not mistaken that  could portend that region thinning out in August sometime. The region is highly vulnrerable to foehn winds.

If someone who has a handle on the data itself could clarify a bit, that would be very helpful

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4358 on: July 23, 2019, 03:43:13 AM »
prediction .. as Killian is proving on a daily basis is .. is not as easy as it seems .. b.c.

While I have commented about my failures, they were specific to long-term mostly. Maybe worth a review to see how I've done since that was the point all long: Can it be done and backed up w/ evidence?

If I were to analyze all of them from the very first, I'd guess my 1~2 day forecasts have been fairly well above random chance. Trying to do 4 or 5 days out is extremely challenging. Then, judging general seasonal directions is almost easy. (I've gotten '10, '12, '13, '14' 16, 18 right, and the '16 forecast was done in Aug. '15, more than a year ahead. Hard to crow about '19 given everybody and their brother is expecting a new record of some sort... but, then, counting chickens and all that.)

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4359 on: July 23, 2019, 03:48:07 AM »
The ice is so thin in the Lincoln sea now that you can see it is in bad shape on Worldview. ...

Slater's model is pretty much useless to help us determine how this year will compare with 2012. The polar cap height maps of Judah Cohen and the Climate Prediction Center show that we are moving towards a positive (stormy near the pole) Arctic oscillation in late August and September. This will likely make the Arctic cloudy as the days grow short, preventing radiative heat loss to space. We may not see anything as impressive as the GAC, but atmospheric circulation patterns will be favorable for late melting season cyclones and bottom melting of sea ice.

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4360 on: July 23, 2019, 03:49:26 AM »
I was actually talking about volume.

Ah.

Quote
All this guesswork is tempting, but actually has little value me thinks.

The value of it is we might learn to do it well. While we still joke about weather forecasting, it has massively improved during my lifetime, and storm tracking is quite accurate.

So, till I get bored, or the season is over, I'll keep at it. Thinking of adding area to my efforts...

DavidR

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4361 on: July 23, 2019, 03:57:26 AM »

Slater's 50 Day Lead projects 2019 to be the new low by a good margin. Interesting how quickly things can change.

No it doesn't
In detail,  to be informative, rather than just contradictory, it is currently predicting 3.95 M km^2.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/this_year_map.png

This would place 2019 second. However even Slater must treat August values probabalisticly and extreme results always have a low probability even this close to the end of the season.   
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Milwen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4362 on: July 23, 2019, 04:17:54 AM »
HYCOM Arctic Ice Thickness July 23 - July 29

Compared to previous years when thickest ice was compacted and pressed towards the north of Greenland and Nunavut region, this year there is a "hole". And also there is not >2m thickness present (only small region in Lincoln Sea). And it looks like that this strip will be open water soon and could be even wider in next days. This could bring more energy to this region from sun.




FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4363 on: July 23, 2019, 04:26:24 AM »
Worldview and RAMBB imagery, and weather data and personal reports from the CAA tell us that the weather has been exceptionally warm and the ice in the passages is beginning to move. in late August and early September the thickest ice on the PIOMAS and Navy maps could be pushed through the garlic press when the Arctic oscillation goes positive. It's a short period so all will not be lost and no BOE will take place, but this is another way that this season can compete with 2012 for the record low.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4364 on: July 23, 2019, 04:29:04 AM »
Eek, sooty drizzle?

Along with the heat wind and waves about to attack the Pacific front comes a big haze of smoke from fires in  North America. (The absolutely incredible smoke pall over western Siberia is mostly staying south for now)

I've attached the EC aerosol forecast for 2 days out along with temps and  the cloud map at the same time, showing light rain under the most intensely smoky area.

The dewpoint is forecast to be 1-3C for 4 days or so at that location, which is well back into the 'pack', at least for now. The dewpoint is also forecast to above 0C in a wide area under the high for several days

I guess a lot of the soot particles have already fallen out, as the PM2.5 forecast has a smaller cloud heading in the same direction, but much of it is gone by the time it makes the ice edge

oops, posted this in error over on the PIOMAS thread, now removed

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4365 on: July 23, 2019, 04:33:19 AM »
The Lincoln Sea continues to get a hammering. 5C and dewpoint of 2C later today.

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4366 on: July 23, 2019, 04:39:36 AM »
The low pressure has had an affect - below image from worldview 80N 150W north of Barrow, AK:

Matt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4367 on: July 23, 2019, 04:40:10 AM »
A prediction of sorts  ;D
As our weather systems are driven by temperature differential and we have not yet seen a major low pressure system this season, i am guessing that temperatures across the basin are fairly consistent? (I think a few contributors here have mentioned a positive 2°C temp across large areas?)
The GAC of 2012 which occurred in early August was surely enhanced by the open water and increased surface temps that this provided relative to the remaining ice pack?
I think this year due to the amount of heat still currently in the arctic and the vast area of open water on the pacific side, i wonder if the conditions are primed for a similar event to take place once the excessive heat is removed from what is left of the ice pack, albeit slightly later in the season.
So my very amateurish prediction is for a very deep low pressure system to form in the second half of August somewhere in the Chukchi/ESS/ Beaufort sea areas.  ::)
Currently looking at the 10 Day GFS model, high pressure still dominates the latter half of the forecast across almost the entire arctic.

mabarnes

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4368 on: July 23, 2019, 05:26:32 AM »

So without any surprise, MERRA2 data backup NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and confirm that the Arctic suck up energy at an impressive pace in June. The first graph updates the scatter plot of September sea ice extent by the NSIDC, versus the June surface net downward solar flux (with a reverse scale on the left, in blue). As forecasted, Arctic (northward of 70°N) surface solar flux reached 120 W/m², a new record. The second and third graph are a quick comparison of accumulated heat in 2019, 2016, and 2012. And last, the map for June 2019, showing the strong signal in Beaufort, Chukchi and Laptev.

Wait ... this would imply (via the correlation) that sea ice is responding to insolation levels ... what about CO2...?   I would be interesting to see a multivariate regression including both.  Asking for a friend lol. 

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4369 on: July 23, 2019, 05:28:09 AM »
The Lincoln Sea continues to get a hammering. 5C and dewpoint of 2C later today.

In a certain sense, this is irrelevant. All of the ice getting hit by that 5C is probably getting flushed down the Nares this season anyway. It's overkill.

wdmn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4370 on: July 23, 2019, 05:37:42 AM »
Another big loss in JAXA extent (>100k).

ANd still ice left in Hudson's Bay. Whole Pacific edge ready for further drops, especially the ESS. This really might be the year. I continue to watch the CAA (as Friv has suggested is key) and the Atlantic side around Svalbard.

heartofsun

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4371 on: July 23, 2019, 05:39:13 AM »
It seems like the ice thickness animation shows that ice is already moving through the CAA? Does anyone else see it that way?


Also looking at 2012 Hudson Bay has just finished last week. I don’t know the area left in the Hudson but I know it’s disappearance should drive the area and extent numbers downward soon.

Thanks to all,
Long time Lurker first time poster.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4372 on: July 23, 2019, 05:53:48 AM »

Slater's 50 Day Lead projects 2019 to be the new low by a good margin. Interesting how quickly things can change.

No it doesn't

Also it stopped updating several days ago :(

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4373 on: July 23, 2019, 06:17:43 AM »
The Lincoln Sea continues to get a hammering. 5C and dewpoint of 2C later today.
That moisture is the problem.  Even without sun it can contribute a lot of energy to the melt, either directly via condensation, or indirectly via long-wave radiation.
This space for Rent.

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4374 on: July 23, 2019, 06:22:17 AM »
wdmn - the CAA is starting to deteriorate as well. It has received a few hits of high temperatures and this last one ended with ice loss and large gaps forming instead of the earlier melt ponding.

The Atlantic front seems to be the only area lagging behind at this point, but I suspect it is an illusion - still surface ice, but I think it has been losing a lot of thickness and is about to retreat as well.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4375 on: July 23, 2019, 06:23:48 AM »
Two cyclones going on. Even that they are not that powerful, I am concerned on the remaining ice at ESS.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4376 on: July 23, 2019, 06:33:13 AM »
July 18-22.

2018.

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4377 on: July 23, 2019, 06:33:37 AM »

7/22/2011 stood at 6.81M km sq. on this date.
7/21/2019 stands at 6.86M km sq., needing a drop of > 50k km sq. to set a record for the date.

Edit (forgot the prediction): Call it another 100k+. Mmm... 105+/-10k.

Came in at -115k, now at -65k km sq compared to 2011.

 8)

7/23/2011 stood at 6.75M km sq. on this date.
7/22/2019 stands at 6.75M km sq., needing a drop of > 0k km sq. to set a record for the date.

Analysis: Conditions are relatively consistent with the last couple of days, but the winds are more consistently toward the CAB and/or into the ice and/or towards the edge of the ice where it can't expand. We should see an even bigger move on the 23rd than on the 22nd.

Call it 125k+/- 10k

The 24th is mixed as it looks now, positive for extent reduction early and more ambiguous the 2nd half of the day. The 25th looks like a smallish number at this time, but those predictions come later.

-----------------

Updated: 7/25/2012 is at 6.62M km sq. on this date.

2019 needs an average daily drop of > 43.33k km sq. for a record low for this date. Place your bets, because this might be the closest to a gimmee you'll ever see, but events on the 23rd will affect this a lot as we could see a pretty small number on the 25th.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4378 on: July 23, 2019, 07:03:07 AM »
Northern Greenland ice continues breaking up.
The island in the image is Beaumont Island. Image taken July 22.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4379 on: July 23, 2019, 08:45:20 AM »
July 18-22.

2018.
Man I’m loving your timely updates. I hate the cropping but nothing’s perfect. My apologies and thank you!
The ESS is being cut in two by the storms, it’s so loose, will the coming winds reach it?

Note aside, the EC now forecasts more energetic dipole, I bet it sees the ridge is sucking more energy from the other ridge over Scandinavia. Seems a really uncertain effect, has the models oscillating at day +3
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 08:52:51 AM by Sterks »

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4380 on: July 23, 2019, 10:42:19 AM »


Slater's 50 Day Lead projects 2019 to be the new low by a good margin. Interesting how quickly things can change.

To elaborate on KTB, Slater's is projecting a minimum of 3.95 Mkm^2 which is significantly above the 2012 minima of 3.41 Mkm^2. I think you are misinterpreting that figure.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4381 on: July 23, 2019, 11:45:25 AM »
Slater's model overestimates the minimum in in bad years, as it's a statistical model, this was discussed here not long ago. Neven a few days ago chided the NSIDC for telling a story  relying entirely on statistics. In September it may well be ringing in their ears

Currently 2019 is running almost 2 days ahead of 2012, leading by 290K on JAXA today(as I predicted 2 weeks ago, 2019 to be~300K  ahead on this date). and only 40000km2 behind 2012 after its largest daily loss of 230000 on the 24th) Over the next 11 days  to 2 August daily losses averaging 100K would slightly extend that extent lead to 380K before 2012 plunges again, though I suspect 2019 will go slightly faster than that for now, so maybe a lead of close to 500K km2 by then, maybe whittled away to 300K 3 days later(ie in a fortnight on August 5), given the amount of ice on death row, and the amount poised to join it.

MMMomentum. No amount of export/dispersal can fully, or long, counter the melt underway

Edit: caveat - my predictions are often wrong!
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 11:50:34 AM by subgeometer »

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4382 on: July 23, 2019, 12:40:59 PM »
Belated condolences, Neven (been away on holiday).

The last week exemplifies the importance of momentum. In spite of weather that was generally agreed to be favourable for ice retention, extent has continued to fall rapidly. A bit of the momentum has almost certainly been lost, but there's so much weak, thin ice that it's unlikely to slow things down much any time soon.

With the forecasts suggesting that we're about to return to a dipole, momentum will pick up again, with the ice in Beaufort, Lincoln, CAA and central CAB bearing the brunt of it. If the pattern holds for a while (and the forecast suggests it will), the first half of August will be very interesting.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4383 on: July 23, 2019, 01:12:51 PM »
Perhaps more of a worry is that the low concentration area is at the tip of the atlantic current, here shown using mercator salinity at 34m. Note also the lower concentration area above the current further west.edit: forgot scale
Question - any idea what might happen if these currents meet up? Anything special/unusual?
Pacific and Atlantic water would appear to meet in a dissipated way seasonally in the chukchi/ess area, probably more so since the bering became relatively ice free. What actually happens when they meet would be a technical discussion of salinity/temperature/density layers (halocline/thermocline) and the potential for mixing which should go to another thread but I think, for reference purposes regarding this season, it doesn't hurt to be aware of what the mercator model shows at 34m depth over the last 2 years (The current mercator model began ~ jun2017)

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4384 on: July 23, 2019, 01:23:12 PM »
What sad thing has happened to Neven? :'(

The foreseen dipole might not be long lived which would be good.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 01:59:26 PM by Lord M Vader »

Oscillidous

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4385 on: July 23, 2019, 01:25:38 PM »
I apologize for my ignorance earlier in regards to the Slater data, did not mean to seem sensational, I misinterpreted the graph.



ESS is looking really nasty though.
When the ice moves it cuts deep grooves
You retire your snow shoes and drink your igloo

dnem

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4386 on: July 23, 2019, 01:32:00 PM »
What säd thing has happened to Neven? :'(

Neven's dad passed away.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4387 on: July 23, 2019, 01:49:53 PM »
Many predictions this year. I'll offer my key things to watch. ..

If the Kara-CAB (leading edge currently at 81.5N) makes it to an average of 85N AND the Chuchki-CAB (currently at 75N) makes it to an average of 82N, we'll have a record low area this year.

If they both don't at least get really close to that....no area record.


be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4388 on: July 23, 2019, 02:21:56 PM »
wow .. so if enough ice melts we'll have a record ! b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4389 on: July 23, 2019, 02:40:13 PM »
Thanks dnem!

My condoleances for you Neven. Take care of yourself.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4390 on: July 23, 2019, 02:42:43 PM »
The Pacific and Atlantic water masses do interact in that animation. The thing you need to remember when watching it is that the Atlantic water is moving in opposite directions on the Beaufort side of the high salinity zone than it is on the Siberian side. There is an arc where the Pacific and Atlantic water move adjacently in towards the Fram strait.

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4391 on: July 23, 2019, 02:49:03 PM »
00z ECMWF shows big high pressure over central Arctic ocean around +120h. We'll finally have clear weather so we can see just what shape the ice is in on Worldview.

Pavel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4392 on: July 23, 2019, 02:53:03 PM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4393 on: July 23, 2019, 03:24:46 PM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

High in the sky ? Under the anticyclone centre area (at 85N) the sun elevation angle will vary between 15 and 25 degrees.

Ok I know the sun does not set but from elevation angle POV, this is something similar to a January 10th afternoon in Boston, Mass.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4394 on: July 23, 2019, 03:45:30 PM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

High in the sky ? Under the anticyclone centre area (at 85N) the sun elevation angle will vary between 15 and 25 degrees.

Ok I know the sun does not set but from elevation angle POV, this is something similar to a January 10th afternoon in Boston, Mass.
Why yes, ~20 over horizon is still high, in terms of fraction of solar energy reaching the surface. Which would be something well over 400 W/m2 average, i believe - with ~500 for 25 degrees and something below 400 for 15. This is from the top of me silly head, so please correct if wrong.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4395 on: July 23, 2019, 03:46:46 PM »
the low elevation increases the side melt on the trillions of mini and micro floes .. though the wind and waves would do more harm   b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4396 on: July 23, 2019, 03:52:59 PM »
The incoming weather pattern is amazing.  OMG it's EXCITING.

The pattern brings a devestating combination of weather, climate, and geological processes.

That are currently expected to ramp up and wind down over roughly a 10 day period.

Peaking over roughly 6-7 days.


1.  MASSIVE amounts of solar insolation.  This is absolutely off the charts.  Models show a massive ridge developing over the next 48 hours over the Canadian basin.  This ridge over the Arctic will be centered over the Canadian basin especially Western Canadian basin and it is absolutely a monster. 

SOLAR INSOLATION AT THE NORTH POLE IS STILL ABOUT 460W/m2 and it drops to around 430W/M2 by August 1st and 400W/M2 around the 7th of August.

So this is really the very end of any impact solar insolation is going to have on this season directly in the Canadian basin.

And as we are currently riding melt momentum to maintain progressing as the most destructive melt season in modern human record keeping.

The weather has decided to ABRUPTLY cancel the mostly cloudy atmospherically benign/good for ice pattern and REPLACE it with a MONSTER DIPOLE

This isn't some 4-7 day slow change.   Where yeah the mass fields look good for melt but the cold air takes forever to scour out or the high pressure ridges are dirty and low clouds/fog run rampant.

No this EXPLOSION OF POWER is

BEYOND NUCLEAR FISSION
BEYOND NUCLEAR FUSION
BEYOND SUPERNOVA EXPLOSION

NO THIS IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OG BIG BANG AND MULTIVERSE BIG BANG.


2.  SSTS ARE  NEAR RECORD, AT RECORDS, AND MOSTLY ABOVE RECORD TERRITORY ALL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AT LARGE.

ENUF SAID...

3.  THE LONG FETCH KING KONG BUNDY'S HUGE BALL SACK OF HEAT SMASHING IT ALL!


WE COULD TAKE A BIG LEAD ON 2012 THEN 2012 WILL WILL PLAY CATCHUP ONCE THE GAC HITS.

ANYWAYS...


I SAID THAT IS WHAT YOU NEEDED TO GET A NEW RECORD JONALU TO CHANCE THIS IS PRETTY FREAKING EXCITING AS THIS IS A BEAST PATTERN CHANGE
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Pavel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4397 on: July 23, 2019, 03:53:06 PM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

High in the sky ? Under the anticyclone centre area (at 85N) the sun elevation angle will vary between 15 and 25 degrees.

Ok I know the sun does not set but from elevation angle POV, this is something similar to a January 10th afternoon in Boston, Mass.

This only 3-4 degrees lower than at the solstice but the albedo is drastically dropped. Also I mean strong winds cause by this HP

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4398 on: July 23, 2019, 04:01:54 PM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

High in the sky ? Under the anticyclone centre area (at 85N) the sun elevation angle will vary between 15 and 25 degrees.

Ok I know the sun does not set but from elevation angle POV, this is something similar to a January 10th afternoon in Boston, Mass.



Umm....Keywords are I know the sun don't set.

Will you post the Boston graphic so we can count how many hours there literally is no solar Insolation.

That's a bad comparison
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4399 on: July 23, 2019, 04:11:10 PM »
So when hyperbole is no longer hyperbolic enough Friv resorts to caps and big fonts... weird flex, but ok. ;)
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.