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pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4600 on: July 25, 2019, 10:24:54 PM »
Not that I had any doubts or questioned the melting occurring, but today's the first day that has really has surprised me in the last few years. Yes, I know I've seen days with 200k drops, etc, but based off the imagery alone it looks like a bomb went off in the whole Arctic (though in a proverbial sense it's being bombed daily). To that end, the entire pack is just a wreck...it doesn't really matter where you zoom in, the entire pack just looks like rubble. More to the point, places which have had some broken flows covering quite a bit of area appear to have vanished literally overnight. I'm not going to, nor am I educated enough to make a prediction toward the end of the year's extent, but from my observations and from what I look at, I feel the coming dipole+heat wave is really going to cause some substantial damage. ALL THE WHILE, the liftoff of the main pack from Greenland is just soo surprising.

Not to mention, with how warm the surrounding oceans are, even cooling the basin could lengthen the season by a few days.

Lastly, this was just posted today...and while it's not as *extreme* in some places, the entire northern hemisphere continues to look more and more like 2012. Again, I'm not going to claim this is a repeat of 2012, but at the same time, if this year ends up really close/similar I won't be surprised either. I just want to end with this - in a purely subjective way, I just feel like this year there is just SO much energy in the system at large.



 
pls!

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4601 on: July 25, 2019, 10:34:21 PM »
Chukchi is now empty, far earlier than ever before.
2007 doesn't enter in that plot, but yes, it really impressive
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 12:00:01 AM by Sterks »

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4602 on: July 25, 2019, 10:38:23 PM »
Below is Zack’s chart for the Chukchi showing the NSIDC data.

Alphabet Hotel

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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4604 on: July 25, 2019, 11:10:43 PM »
This heatwave is intense - high temps, widespread covering much of the American side of the Arctic, well placed over ice regions highly relevant to minimum while cooler air lies over ice that seems certain to melt out.  But not really all that long lived with maybe 3 or 4 days of extreme conditions before 850hp temps start dropping and the high starts weakening. 

And compare base of ESS now against [/url=https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2012-07-25-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-1279352.4928144752,689281.987323988,-579960.4928144753,989313.987323988]2012[/url].  The ice dispersion is stronger this year, but doesn't reach as far towards the pole.  Interesting that this is in my opinion the biggest reason to not expect a new record this year.  And the biggest reason to expect a new record?  The unprecedented retreat of the ice edge in Chukchi region.  The two areas highlighted in this chart:

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4605 on: July 25, 2019, 11:55:26 PM »
Steven’s SMOS beige pixel count stays flat and then has a big uptick. I believe it reflects the recent surface refreezing over Beaufort, Laptev, and parts of the CAB.
Anyway its a clear deviation from 2012 for the first time since Early June.
How much will the current wave revert this indicator?
Edit: well, SMOS shows it’s mostly in the CAB, but worldview shows a clear change of tone on laptev and Beaufort, as I showed yesterday:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg215786.html#msg215786
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 12:12:04 AM by Sterks »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4606 on: July 26, 2019, 12:11:06 AM »
It takes a 80m high column of water at 4-5deg C to melt a single meter of ice. Melting of ice takes so much energy that it just takes a lot of time. The temperature of sea surface is some factor, but IMHO is not that important.
1st, this is factually wrong: 333.55 kJ to melt one kg of ice, -4.2 kJ to cool 1 kg of water by 1C. Cooling down 80 kg water by 4.5C would release 4.5 x 4.2 x 80 = 1512 kJ, i.e. ~5 times more than needed to melt 1 kg of ice. Means, it's not 80m high column per your example - but only ~16m.

2nd, both me and Oren already asked to stop doing napkin physics in this topic, recently. This topic is for melting season dynamics with only limited and small deviations. Normally you'd be asked to proceed with any more such posts in a more appopriate thread, like science base threads about ice melt physics, which this forum also has - but if you'd keep doing such mistakes, then with all respect and entirely friendly intent, i'd advice to not make them. See, you can mislead others with such posts. It's bad. But for sure it never hurts to ask and to post assumptions asking others to verify - in said ice physics threads. Please, do.

3rd, SSTs are not any much important any well inside ice-covered regions, as long as ice concentration is well above 50% (all the ice keeps SSTs near 0C); but at the edges of any ice cover and in areas with ~50% or lower concentration, especially with large subareas of open water (10+ km2) under clear sky and/or with wind blowing towards sea ice - SSTs become very important, in terms of melt season progress. Water currents also a factor, SSTs in stormy areas vs weak / thin ice cover is a dramatic thing, etc. I.e. SSTs importance is highly variable thing for a melt season and can't be estimated without taking other things into good consideration. Experienced posters often omit those details, only discussing SSTs when they are indeed affecting ice melt much, and simply not paying attention to SSTs when their consequences can't be anyhow foreseen in a definitive way. Which does not mean those guys don't make said consideration, you see. They do.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 12:33:41 AM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4607 on: July 26, 2019, 12:29:54 AM »
Repeating myself, the continuation of the current wave, days 6 to 10 can be evaluated using 5-day average over ensemble of forecast, to fail in the conservative side.
What the EC ensembles say is that the Greenland ridge will be strengthened, and the corresponding high will be strongly reinforced. Not as bad circulation as present, but not party time for the pack either. And a very bad news for Greenland

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4608 on: July 26, 2019, 12:40:07 AM »
Repeating myself, the continuation of the current wave, days 6 to 10 can be evaluated using 5-day average over ensemble of forecast, to fail in the conservative side.
What the EC ensembles say is that the Greenland ridge will be strengthened, and the corresponding high will be strongly reinforced. Not as bad circulation as present, but not party time for the pack either. And a very bad news for Greenland
This one is awful for Greenland

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4609 on: July 26, 2019, 01:35:22 AM »
Repeating myself, the continuation of the current wave, days 6 to 10 can be evaluated using 5-day average over ensemble of forecast, to fail in the conservative side.
What the EC ensembles say is that the Greenland ridge will be strengthened, and the corresponding high will be strongly reinforced. Not as bad circulation as present, but not party time for the pack either. And a very bad news for Greenland
Hot damn! HOT DAMN! Friv, where are you? We need your writer's talents, sir. Seems this one is quite a fitting occasion...

This is not just "very bad". This may well be total melt of Greenland surface of unprecedented proportions - as well as similar kind of event for sea ice north from Greenland. Hell...

See, 11...12th June, this year, nearly half of Greenland already melted. This means less snow cover and easier-to-melt layers of refrozen snow/ice mix (those always have less reflectivity than proper snow - so lower albedo). Back in those days in June, Greenland was losing ~12 billion tons of ice/snow per _day_.

Sure it was a bit higher insolation than now, but then whole thing was colder on average, i bet.

But most importantly, that june melt event was done by a high some ~1025 hPa strong (seeing it here). But this one we see developing, i see quite a few days being in 1030s, and i even see 1040+ couple times in the forecast! Wow. And yep it seems extremely stable system, too.

Snow thickness is projected to steadily decline next ~5 days from what i see, across whole Greenland, including every last grid cell in its central regions. Most of central Greenland i see its snow cover going from 48...72 cm to just 24...36 by August 1st, i.e. losing ~half of its snow cover despite all the elevation central Greenland has, - and the high seems not to be going anyware past that date, too. You don't lose those amounts of snow without massive melt event going, me thinks...

I suspect that much of ice retreat we now see directly north from Greenland is powered by melt water bottom melt, already. That water just gets significantly warm while running off the land, and then bottom-melts lots of ice once it's in the ocean. But after this event unfolding, with possibly over a hundred Gt meltwater runoff in a few days (i bet under-ice water bodies of Greenland are already overflowing by now), means up to few dozens Gt meltwater in a few days to the North side of it, and with such an insolation and already warmed up coasts? Can't even remotely evaluate the consequences, other than suspecting they might be devastating like nothing else before in the region.

Next week might well be no less historical than the GAC of 2012, gentlemen.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 01:49:08 AM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4610 on: July 26, 2019, 02:06:00 AM »
The channels of the CAA wil get a steam cleaning over the next 10 days southeasterly and southerly winds are going to drive ice out of the north side of the channels into the Arctic while the southern sides of channels melt out completely. This pattern is worse for the CAA than Greenland because of the persistent warm southerly winds.

The ice just north of the CAA already looks like a fallen mirror shattered into tiny fragments. We'll get to see how thick it is after 10 days of getting blasted by s subcontinent sized blow dryer.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4611 on: July 26, 2019, 02:17:51 AM »
Months ago I said if we saw a new minimum the story would be the weather in the mid-latitudes. As all-time records are now falling across Europe, that is clearly the case.

The Greenland situation in sync with the Arctic is severely troubling IMO. I wonder if the rubber band is going to snap in the opposite direction as we head into autumn. With a possible record amount of open water, the Greenland melt, and the rising SSTs, I would think this year is more primed than any before for VERY rapid growth in continental snowfall as the sun falls lower in the sky. This could translate into a severely early and chaotic winter pattern with major snowfalls across most of the mid-latitudes extending into areas that normally do not see them (IMO). I won't get too off-topic, but the end of the melt season is much more likely to coincide with an abnormally early start to winter across the continents, in my opinion.

At the same time, the early onset of snows across North America and Eurasia is likely to advect even MORE oceanic heat into the Arctic in September and October, which could mean we also see a very late minimum this year (to end the post on a note that brings it full circle and totally back on topic). That would also coincide with a very lackluster refreeze, probably worse than 16-17, which could put us in a position where we could see a very horrible minimum in 2020 (like, 1M KM^2 remaining).

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4612 on: July 26, 2019, 02:18:02 AM »
I'm getting very excited for the ice island.
big time oops

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4613 on: July 26, 2019, 02:25:32 AM »
The particulates from all those forest fires in Siberia are blowing away from the Arctic. That means no drop in albedo, but it also means open skies, so that the sun can shine with all its power on the ice and open water without being refracted by the particles. Am I getting that right? I'm so amazed by the amount of particles that those forest fires produce. Does anyone know how much CO2 these fires are releasing?
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4614 on: July 26, 2019, 02:40:42 AM »
The particulates from all those forest fires in Siberia are blowing away from the Arctic. That means no drop in albedo, but it also means open skies, so that the sun can shine with all its power on the ice and open water without being refracted by the particles. Am I getting that right? I'm so amazed by the amount of particles that those forest fires produce. Does anyone know how much CO2 these fires are releasing?
I don't think the smoke is blowing away, it is getting sucked into a low that is developing over the Laptev. It won't enter the CAB right away, if modeling is correct, to my eyes, it looks like the plume will go from Siberia to Chukchi/Bering/Alaska and then enter the CAB.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4615 on: July 26, 2019, 02:56:01 AM »
July 10-24, 3 day lagging median.

Pacific side retreat accelerated considerably in the last few days. Beaufort retreating despite continued import. ESS hanging on by the skin of its teeth. Huge area north of Laptev flashing on and off, maybe on the verge of staying "yellow" (<80% concentration). Southern CAA purple (>90%) to green (<70%) in less than a week.

Click to animate.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 03:06:21 AM by petm »

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4616 on: July 26, 2019, 03:12:35 AM »
Does anyone know how much CO2 these fires are releasing?

A lot, and some of it is peat which means it is not accounted for in the carbon budget.  I posted some info on the Wildfire thread. 

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4617 on: July 26, 2019, 03:43:10 AM »
Perfect view of Beaufort today.

https://go.nasa.gov/2yafA3t

Sarat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4618 on: July 26, 2019, 04:08:54 AM »
 This year's wildfIres set a new record (in last 16 years).

 A quote I keep seeing on the news:

"According to Mark Parrington, senior scientists with Europe's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, the Arctic's fires have released approximately 100 megatons, 100 million metric tons, of CO2 since June -- a total Parrington said on Twitter "is getting close to 2017 fossil fuel CO2 emissions of Belgium."

**My apologies for this not being directly on topic
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 04:21:39 AM by Sarat »

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4619 on: July 26, 2019, 04:18:54 AM »
I have no complaints.
I am not a scientist

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4620 on: July 26, 2019, 04:56:26 AM »
This is the latest from Zack Labe. Posted about an hour ago.  The experts seem to be in agreement that the forecast looks bad for the ice.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4621 on: July 26, 2019, 05:18:16 AM »
The upcoming forecast is pretty bad. But things could be worse.

We got to July 15 with close to 21 consecutive days of area loss in excess of 100k (1 day was 99k). The volume record was 400k ahead of 2012 and momentum was A+.

Since the 15th, we've had zero 100k area losses and the last 3 days have been in the 40-50k range. Momentum has declined substantially. Fram and Nares export have slowed tremendously. The Atlantic is less intrusive thus far than in some years past.

The Russian side seas are going to be a total loss but they still offer a buffer for the CAB for the moment.

2+ weeks ago, the math said we needed to lose ~ 100k / week in the CAB to set a record. We've been going at half that rate since. The average thickness in the CAB was  > 2m at 7/15 compared to a fraction of a meter outside. Perimeter intrusion into the CAB has been very limited.

The ice got beat up by cyclones in the past week. Cold cyclones. The thin crappy ice outside the CAB got killed, propelling extent losses while melt stalled.

We've got incredible high pressure coming, but it seems to last 3-4 days, not weeks on end. After that, conditions still look bad in the forecast and in a week we could have huge export and a major expansion of the North American Crack.

This is going to be a lot to ooh and aah about. Fortunately, we only have ~ 7 weeks of melting season left. Insolation is receding as a melt factor and the CAB still has ice.

Much epic weather to come. Popcorn is well stocked.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4622 on: July 26, 2019, 05:23:36 AM »
The upcoming forecast is pretty bad. But things could be worse.

We got to July 15 with close to 21 consecutive days of area loss in excess of 100k (1 day was 99k). The volume record was 400k ahead of 2012 and momentum was A+.

Since the 15th, we've had zero 100k area losses and the last 3 days have been in the 40-50k range. Momentum has declined substantially. Fram and Nares export have slowed tremendously. The Atlantic is less intrusive thus far than in some years past.

The Russian side seas are going to be a total loss but they still offer a buffer for the CAB for the moment.

2+ weeks ago, the math said we needed to lose ~ 100k / week in the CAB to set a record. We've been going at half that rate since. The average thickness in the CAB was  > 2m at 7/15 compared to a fraction of a meter outside. Perimeter intrusion into the CAB has been very limited.

The ice got beat up by cyclones in the past week. Cold cyclones. The thin crappy ice outside the CAB got killed, propelling extent losses while melt stalled.

We've got incredible high pressure coming, but it seems to last 3-4 days, not weeks on end. After that, conditions still look bad in the forecast and in a week we could have huge export and a major expansion of the North American Crack.

This is going to be a lot to ooh and aah about. Fortunately, we only have ~ 7 weeks of melting season left. Insolation is receding as a melt factor and the CAB still has ice.

Much epic weather to come. Popcorn is well stocked.

Area losses have been falsely limited due to clouds IMO, I do not believe the last few days of output and I think we see a correction in the opposite direction as this becomes obvious.

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4623 on: July 26, 2019, 05:50:06 AM »
No question area loss numbers have been in a stall, but it happens multiple times in a year, and that does not actually say anything about melt which I suspect is chugging along just fine. The current weather may actually create interesting area and extent numbers as it appears winds may well support both increased export toward the atlantic and dispersion of ice elsewhere.

It has been a strange week with large  extent losses and smaller area losses - the opposite of the preceding period. I expect the two to start moving more in tandum in the coming weeks.

And I am not sure I agree that the CAB averages >2M thickness - not sure where that number comes from.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4624 on: July 26, 2019, 05:58:12 AM »

And I am not sure I agree that the CAB averages >2M thickness - not sure where that number comes from.

I wondered the same thing.  The area numbers are very hard to interpret this time of the year.  They can change for many reasons, and unless he knows a Russian or American submarine commander, there is no way to know how thick the ice in the CAB is right now. 

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4625 on: July 26, 2019, 06:13:47 AM »


And I am not sure I agree that the CAB averages >2M thickness - not sure where that number comes from.

There are two places in this forum where sea specific measures are regularly provided.

The NSIDC CAB area is of course provided daily by Gerontocrat. At 7/15, the CAB area was 2.7M+ km2.

The semi-monthly volume data is available in the PIOMAS data thread. Oren provided a CAB volume graph based upon data provided by Wipneus'. Exact # at 7/15 is not shown, but eyeballing the graph shows about 6.6k km3. Total Arctic volume was 8.77k km3.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4626 on: July 26, 2019, 06:42:37 AM »

Area losses have been falsely limited due to clouds IMO, I do not believe the last few days of output and I think we see a correction in the opposite direction as this becomes obvious.

Clouds are a daily presence. You are the only one I've seen mention that clouds impair area measures.

My understanding is that area measures are sensitive to wet surface and pick up melt ponds and identify them as open water. The relatively cold weather of the last two weeks seems to well explain the slowing of areas detected as melting.



bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4627 on: July 26, 2019, 06:51:18 AM »

Area losses have been falsely limited due to clouds IMO, I do not believe the last few days of output and I think we see a correction in the opposite direction as this becomes obvious.

Clouds are a daily presence. You are the only one I've seen mention that clouds impair area measures.

My understanding is that area measures are sensitive to wet surface and pick up melt ponds and identify them as open water. The relatively cold weather of the last two weeks seems to well explain the slowing of areas detected as melting.
It hasn't been relatively cold. You are just making sh*t up over and over again. This July has been warmer than 2012 across almost the entire Arctic. Clouds are a daily presence but their % of coverage is not CONSTANT, it has increased in recent weeks due to all the open water, a side effect of our record numbers re: area, extent, and volume.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4628 on: July 26, 2019, 07:09:41 AM »
Temps during planting season 2010-2019

&

Temps rolling 7 day July to date

both click to runs
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 07:16:42 AM by sark »
I am not a scientist

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4629 on: July 26, 2019, 07:26:34 AM »

It hasn't been relatively cold. You are just making sh*t up over and over again.

I'll invite you to read Gerontocrat's daily summaries for the entire melting season.

Almost every day as part of his boilerplate analysis, he includes the Arctic temperature anomaly. When historian's go back and look at his entries, they will be interested to find that the range of temperature anomalies was always positive from April through June.

In mid July for the first-time they will see for the first time...references to zero degree temperature anomalies. Interesting...I guess Gerontocrat is making shit up too?

No. For some reason, there is denial on your part that momentum has slowed since mid-July and you're getting hostile about it.


UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4630 on: July 26, 2019, 07:29:25 AM »


And I am not sure I agree that the CAB averages >2M thickness - not sure where that number comes from.

There are two places in this forum where sea specific measures are regularly provided.

The NSIDC CAB area is of course provided daily by Gerontocrat. At 7/15, the CAB area was 2.7M+ km2.

The semi-monthly volume data is available in the PIOMAS data thread. Oren provided a CAB volume graph based upon data provided by Wipneus'. Exact # at 7/15 is not shown, but eyeballing the graph shows about 6.6k km3. Total Arctic volume was 8.77k km3.
The area of the Wipneus defined CAB is much larger than NSIDC CAB area so determining CAB average thickness by using two sea area definitions is not going to work.

Wipneus area graph for his definition of the CAB on July15th was around 4.1M km2, and your estimate of a volume of 6.6M km3 would give average thickness about 1.6M.

Not sure how accurate any of that is, but at least it used the same underlying system.

EDIT: used the wipneus extent and not area. Have correct 4.35 to 4.1M km2 and 1.5 to 1.6M
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 07:39:44 AM by UCMiami »

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4631 on: July 26, 2019, 07:45:30 AM »
That's a good point UC Miami.

I am trying to understand and convey the thickness of the traditional CAB, not the bigger CAB that Wipneus' might be referring to.

In the case, that I am are mixing and matching, the data is misleading. If Oren stumbles by this, he can clarify.

But let's keep in mind that if Wipneus' bigger CAB has an average thickness of 1.5m, then the traditional CAB I am trying to convey almost certainly has greater thickness than that. Ice generally gets thicker closer to 90N.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4632 on: July 26, 2019, 07:46:21 AM »

It hasn't been relatively cold. You are just making sh*t up over and over again.

I'll invite you to read Gerontocrat's daily summaries for the entire melting season.

Almost every day as part of his boilerplate analysis, he includes the Arctic temperature anomaly. When historian's go back and look at his entries, they will be interested to find that the range of temperature anomalies was always positive from April through June.

In mid July for the first-time they will see for the first time...references to zero degree temperature anomalies. Interesting...I guess Gerontocrat is making shit up too?

No. For some reason, there is denial on your part that momentum has slowed since mid-July and you're getting hostile about it.
You are still making sh*t up. The reason mid-July saw negative anomalies begin to emerge is because a huge chunk of the Arctic basin at that point was OPEN WATER. The only "cold" areas have been over OPEN WATER.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4633 on: July 26, 2019, 08:07:17 AM »
Yawn. The irony of being told I'm making shit up by the person baselessly claiming NSIDC is sharing bad area data.

Sorry... momentum comes and goes. It may very well come back with a vengeance, but it has diminished for now.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4634 on: July 26, 2019, 08:12:47 AM »
It hasn't been relatively cold. You are just making sh*t up over and over again.
No. For some reason, there is denial on your part that momentum has slowed since mid-July and you're getting hostile about it.
You are still making sh*t up. The reason mid-July saw negative anomalies begin to emerge is because a huge chunk of the Arctic basin at that point was OPEN WATER. The only "cold" areas have been over OPEN WATER.
That is just not true, there’s plenty of evidence momentum was nearly exhausted in some areas. I have posted images, sensor data, etc. It’s gonna get a recharge though.
You make s*t up all the time, 365x24, now three years. And you litter this thread. You litter all threads.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4635 on: July 26, 2019, 08:34:01 AM »

It hasn't been relatively cold. You are just making sh*t up over and over again.

I'll invite you to read Gerontocrat's daily summaries for the entire melting season.

Almost every day as part of his boilerplate analysis, he includes the Arctic temperature anomaly. When historian's go back and look at his entries, they will be interested to find that the range of temperature anomalies was always positive from April through June.
Well, I went through the last 24 of Gerantocrat's excellent posting.  He has long been of the habit of relaying in a few words what the forecasts are saying about temperature anomalies, although I noticed that he stopped doing that on the 18th.

And remember, these are forecasts. In the six day period, from the 12th to the 18th, the foreacas was allways for drop from c.a. 1 to 0. Apparently it didn't pan out.

In the 12 days before that, the forecasted range is constantly hovering between 0.5 and 1.5 - should we interpret that as forecasts gone wrong, or did the numbers actually eventuate in some places and not in other?

My take from this is that it's actually been relatively warm and the forecasts seem to be for it to get even warmer.

Looking at GFS animation from July 19th to August 4th show consistent positive abnormal temperatures over the ice, in the range of 0.5 to 1.5 degrees, with big blobs of heat coming up from the Pacific and the Atlantic at various times.

So generally, it does look as if the Arctic is relatively very warm, as far as the ice covered areas are concerned. and getting relatively warmer as well!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4636 on: July 26, 2019, 08:35:41 AM »
I am trying to understand and convey the thickness of the traditional CAB, not the bigger CAB that Wipneus' might be referring to.
Perhaps admitting that you were wrong would have been a better tactic than taking swipes at Wipneus who is one of the extremely few posters here that actually add some real value to the forums.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4637 on: July 26, 2019, 08:52:01 AM »
My lord, dipole starts setting up and people are getting their hackles up over 5-day averages. Relax. WAA just started in earnest today. It's gonna take a couple of days for that to show up in earnest on the rolling area averages.

This is going to look pretty silly by Monday.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4638 on: July 26, 2019, 08:56:16 AM »
That's a good point UC Miami.

I am trying to understand and convey the thickness of the traditional CAB, not the bigger CAB that Wipneus' might be referring to.

In the case, that I am are mixing and matching, the data is misleading. If Oren stumbles by this, he can clarify.

But let's keep in mind that if Wipneus' bigger CAB has an average thickness of 1.5m, then the traditional CAB I am trying to convey almost certainly has greater thickness than that. Ice generally gets thicker closer to 90N.
As far as I had always assumed, as PIOMAS is modeled with NSIDC data, I thought the regions published by Wipneus for volume follow the NSIDC map (smaller CAB), while his Home Brew AMSR2 area and extent follow the CT map (larger CAB). But I never thought to ask.

In any case, it it wrong to assume that the CAB ice thickness is 2m. That is maybe the average thickness, but PIOMAS models a large range of thicknesses, and the distribution is what sets the relation between actual melting (volume loss) and area reduction (ice that reached zero thickness). Study both graphs in this post by Wipneus carefully. It is for June 30th, but shows a large chunk of volume was in the ice thickness categories of > 2.61m (5000 km3) and >4.23m (3000 km3). It also shows that ice >2.61m was less than 1M km2 of area, and that ice >1.46m and <2.61m was about 1.3M km2.
What these graphs don't show is the spatial distribution of the very thick ice. If you were to assume it is all in the CAB, you could calculate the average thickness of the ice that was not >2.61m: take CAB volume, substract very thick ice volume, take CAB area, substract thick ice area, divide net volume by net area, get result. But I doubt this assumption is true for PIOMAS at the end of June, as surely some very thick ice was modeled for other regions as well. I do not have the ability to process the raw data and separate it by regions - though anyone could do it if they set their mind to it. All data files area readily available to download from both NSIDC and PIOMAS.
You will also notice that normally the area of ice >1.46m at the end of June correlates well with the area surviving near the date of the minimum (Sep 10th). If the CAB ice was now uniformly 2m thick, none of it would melt out by Sept., but since some of it is thinner and some of it is thicker, the result will be much different. So an assumption of average thickness as being the actual uniform thickness is wrong both mathematically and physically, and would give a wrong result for any forecasting effort.
I hope the above helps in any way. I will ask Wipneus about the map used for PIOMAS regions though.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4639 on: July 26, 2019, 08:58:55 AM »
My lord, dipole starts setting up and people are getting their hackles up over 5-day averages. Relax. WAA just started in earnest today. It's gonna take a couple of days for that to show up in earnest on the rolling area averages.

This is going to look pretty silly by Monday.
Yes it will. Also the 00z EURO is now showing an epic block entering the Beaufort by 240. This is way far out but perhaps an indicator that August will be as bad as May, June, and July have been.

(and yes, July HAS been bad despite Rich's ignorant comments, in fact, it has been warmer than 2012 across the actual SEA ICE).


binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4640 on: July 26, 2019, 09:13:56 AM »
That's a good point UC Miami.

I am trying to understand and convey the thickness of the traditional CAB, not the bigger CAB that Wipneus' might be referring to.

In the case, that I am are mixing and matching, the data is misleading. If Oren stumbles by this, he can clarify.

But let's keep in mind that if Wipneus' bigger CAB has an average thickness of 1.5m, then the traditional CAB I am trying to convey almost certainly has greater thickness than that. Ice generally gets thicker closer to 90N.
As far as I had always assumed, as PIOMAS is modeled with NSIDC data, I thought the regions published by Wipneus for volume follow the NSIDC map (smaller CAB), while his Home Brew AMSR2 area and extent follow the CT map (larger CAB). But I never thought to ask.
Rich clearly had the wrong numbers since they give an average thickness of over 3m, which is ridiculous and makes one wonder how he arrived at the >2m figure?
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4641 on: July 26, 2019, 09:19:33 AM »
My lord, dipole starts setting up and people are getting their hackles up over 5-day averages. Relax. WAA just started in earnest today. It's gonna take a couple of days for that to show up in earnest on the rolling area averages.

This is going to look pretty silly by Monday.
Yes it will. Also the 00z EURO is now showing an epic block entering the Beaufort by 240. This is way far out but perhaps an indicator that August will be as bad as May, June, and July have been.

(and yes, July HAS been bad despite Rich's ignorant comments, in fact, it has been warmer than 2012 across the actual SEA ICE).



Also you see how much black carbon is released due to firewoods in Siberia. The black carbon is transported through mid-high latitude circulation pattern hovering around arctic ocean. Those black carbon will absorb more solar radiation in the upper troposphere result in weak polar vortex formation. It may will bring more sunny warm days in arctic region in August and offset the effect of solar elevation. Damn!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4642 on: July 26, 2019, 09:53:24 AM »
My lord, dipole starts setting up and people are getting their hackles up over 5-day averages. Relax. WAA just started in earnest today. It's gonna take a couple of days for that to show up in earnest on the rolling area averages.

This is going to look pretty silly by Monday.
Yes it will. Also the 00z EURO is now showing an epic block entering the Beaufort by 240. This is way far out but perhaps an indicator that August will be as bad as May, June, and July have been.

(and yes, July HAS been bad despite Rich's ignorant comments, in fact, it has been warmer than 2012 across the actual SEA ICE).


It's ignorance to use the +240h EC alone, yes it may show a tendency, but we'll see if the epic block(?) ends up in that or in a wishful thought.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4643 on: July 26, 2019, 10:00:07 AM »
...
So what evidence would you look for to prove that a massive heat influx is actually taking place?

The simple answer seems to be that we should see a rapid increase in area loss, reflecting the onset of surface melt.
For area to start dropping, there must be openings larger than grid size for any given method of observation -


Norsex Arctic ROOS (https://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi_ice_area.png) has flatlined over the past few days despite the melt apparent on Worldview, the momentum etc. It has a coarse grid of over 10km

WE'll have a good opportunity to observe the Beaufort and CAB ice to see how it fares under high pressure with warm air and cloudless skies. What can be seen from yesterday and today don;t inspire huge confidence.

I've included a worldview image of about 500,000 km2 of extent in the Beaufort Sea and CAB between 74 and 82N, with the approximate area marked on todays AMSR2 map from Bremen, as well as a section of the Arctic ROOS sea ice area graph

Greenland looks to be in for a bad week, possibly one for the record books. and areas to its north wont escape, with the Lincoln seeing 4C surface temps from D3 on Windy and 2 days of 5-6C about D6 and D7. There's some wind and dewpoints are also above freezing. The apparent worst is still a way off so I'll wait till tomorrows forecast

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4644 on: July 26, 2019, 10:10:16 AM »
Another view on the Area development, provided by Wipneus on his homebrew thread, based on Uni Hamburg Amsr2-data, grid 3.125 km

Dropping steeply again ... slow downs happen from time to time, in every year.
Current value: 5.18 M km²

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4645 on: July 26, 2019, 10:43:07 AM »

And I am not sure I agree that the CAB averages >2M thickness - not sure where that number comes from.

I wondered the same thing.  The area numbers are very hard to interpret this time of the year.  They can change for many reasons, and unless he knows a Russian or American submarine commander, there is no way to know how thick the ice in the CAB is right now.
PIOMAS volume divided by NSIDC sea ice area seems the only logical way to do it without physical observations, and here it is.....

Note that it seems to have lost 1 metre of thickness since the 2000's, but at mid-July was at 2.4 metres.   Usually what happens now is that scorn is placed upon the data for being awkward.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 10:49:53 AM by gerontocrat »
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4646 on: July 26, 2019, 11:06:02 AM »
Hot damn! HOT DAMN! Friv, where are you? We need your writer's talents, sir. Seems this one is quite a fitting occasion...

Friv emptied out his hyperbole bin with his latest post.

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4647 on: July 26, 2019, 11:12:09 AM »
Well the edge of the Beaufort ice is melting rapidly. Lots of area of slush simply vanished in 24 hours: https://go.nasa.gov/2K4kowV

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4648 on: July 26, 2019, 11:40:29 AM »
... Usually what happens now is that scorn is placed upon the data for being awkward.
Well, let's do something else for a change then, eh? From very previous page of this topic, here's what tells much different story (unless, of course, you'd be color-blind):



Now who would be the brave soul to claim that on this one, "blue" and "purple / pinkish" colors all mean 2m+ thickness? Rich, wanna volunteer? I love a good laugh. :D
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4649 on: July 26, 2019, 12:45:16 PM »
... Usually what happens now is that scorn is placed upon the data for being awkward.
Well, let's do something else for a change then, eh? From very previous page of this topic, here's what tells much different story (unless, of course, you'd be color-blind):



Now who would be the brave soul to claim that on this one, "blue" and "purple / pinkish" colors all mean 2m+ thickness? Rich, wanna volunteer? I love a good laugh. :D

Not sure I believe that figure  ???, its almost implying the rotten ice in southern Hudson has the same thickness as 50% of the CAB ice
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