Well, JAXA is back after a day of making me crazy and really screwing up my chance at predicting the overtaking of the 2012 low as the record low crown slipped from 2011 to 2012 on the 25th. I had been pointing at that date for weeks. Grrr!
Anywho, the 24th and 25th:
7/24/2011 stood at 6.68M km sq. on this date.
7/23/2019 stands at 6.67M km sq., needing < +15k (non-rounded) increase for a record low on the 24th.
7/25/2012 stood at 6.62M km sq. on this date.
7/24/2019 stood at 6.62M km sq., a tie for the record, after a drop of 50k km sq. 2019 needed a drop of > 0k km sq. for a record low.
7/25/2012 stood at 6.62M km sq. on this date.
7/25/2019 stands at 6.51M km sq. after a drop of 110k km sq.
This is a record for this date and marks 2019 as currently more deadly for ASIE than 2012 even after the Great Arctic Cyclone event. Now, the long-term effects of the cyclone likely are revealed in the wide, flat bottom of the melt season curve that 2012 anomalously displays, so it's going to take more than just being 110k ahead of 2012 for one day; 2012 lost a lot of ice from the 26th to the 10th. The 110k lead will certainly help to keep 2019 in front for a day or two, at least, if not longer.
7/26/2012 stood at 6.51M km sq. on this date, a drop of 110k.
7/25/2019 stands at 6.51M km sq. 2019 needs a drop > 0k km sq. for a record low on this date.
These are rounded numbers so there's up to 5k difference in those numbers, so anything over -5k should do it for another record day. But, what should we expect? A few days ago the 25th looked pretty mixed, but excuse me as I go read all you good people's comments, check out some graphs and futz around... brb.
I'm baaack! Well, the upper level winds via NullSchool show a dipole, but it is not as prominent using surface winds. The ice must be moved by surface rather than high level winds, while the high level bring the heat, if any... yes? There's strong winds pushing toward the Atlantic between Svalbard and the west Siberian coast which should add to extent, but most winds elsewhere should reduce extent. Serious heat on the Pacific side.
Looks like a recipe for an extant drop of 80 to 110. 95k, then.
Or something.
2012 lost 250k km sq of ASIE over the 26th and 27th, but '19 has 110k to play with, so needs only around 70k/day to keep at a record level and the dipole systems seem harder on the ice after the 26th, so I suspect something like 100k~120 average over these two days with the 26th smaller than the 27th, maybe 95k/120k.
Final for 27th tomorrow.
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8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 98.13k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (16 days)
It doesn't look like that French heat is going to get up into the Arctic Ocean as much as some think, at least according to Null. That said, all the systems running around now and the expected sunlit high after might do a number on the ice. Right now I call this a 50/50 chance of 2019 breaking the record on that date.
9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 64.04k km sq. for a record low on this date. (52 days)
Who knows? This seems an easier target than the 10th, actually, but I really don't know how slow losses get in late August and Sept.
Better go look.