I can't see a century day for the 28th, but since it looks not unlike yesterday, let's say -80+/-15.
*Juuuust* missed it! -98,213 km2! Snickerdoodles!
7/28/2012 stood at 6.29M km sq. on this date , a drop of 80k.
7/27/2019 stands at 6.29M km sq. 2019 needs a drop > 0k km sq. for a record low on this date.
7/29/2012 stood at 6.20M km sq. on this date , a drop of 80k.
7/28/2019 stands at 6.19M km sq. 2019 needs an increase of < 10k km sq. for a record low on this date.
Analysis:
Going out on a limb here and saying century drop! "K-k-k," as they say in Korea (sound of snickering), given the ice being shoved off Greenland - as previously suspected! To wit:
If those winds off of northern Greenland shove the ice toward the Pole like happened last year (iirc), opening up a wide swath of ocean there, then the number could be a big drop
So, we got a bit more than I expected, but not a huge number. That seems to be coming for the 29th. Or is it? According to NullSchool wind patterns forthe 29th (UTC):
CAA/N. Greenland: Wind-aided compaction
Far western Canada: Wind-aided expansion
N. Alaska, Bering Strait: Wind-aided compaction
Almost all of Siberian coast: Wind-aided expansion
Fram/Svalbard: Strong wind-aided compaction
East of Svalbard to W. Russian coast: Neutral to wind-aided expansion
Pretty mixed. But then there's all the heat. Literally throughout the Arctic basin. Surface melt is second to bottom melt, but there's all sorts of winds going every which way which should be getting water moving to at least some degree where there's space between floes, and certainly around the edges of the pack.
So, I'm giving priority to the winds coming off of Greenland, over the CAA and up the Fram/over Svalbard and calling a solid -120k +/-15k.
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8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 89.87k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (15 days <-- The previous number was in error. Or this one is. Whatever...)
9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 62.16k km sq. for a record low on this date. (50 days)
8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 96.15k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (13 days)
***Edit: Sorry, misreading my own spreadsheet. Today there's 6.19M km sq. there are 13 days remaining. So, starting with tomorrow the needed loss is 96.15/day. I was looking at today's needed drop... goofy. Also had my day numbering wrong.***
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9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 61.43k km sq. for a record low on this date. (49 days)
Note about this. The decline is useful to watch, IMO, because the daily decrease from Sept. 1 ~ Sept. 15th (the low date in '12) is only 20k, and, naturally, much smaller the closer it gets to the 15th low. Of course we can all eyeball that '19 is close to '12, but this gives us the actual numbers we need to be seeing.
That huge drop of 1,090 km sq (121k km sq/day) from the 2nd to the tenth is the first hurdle. If '19 comes at higher extent to that with any significance at all, I see zero chance of a new record because, as has been stated, researchers have suggested the June insolation is a key correlation with Sept. minima, but also that the GAC's effects lingered long after the storm by stirring up warmer deep waters. Thus, we see the broad, deep curve at the end of the season in 2012. At least, that's how I interpret it.
There is speculation the record June temps are going to translate/are translating into extended melt effects. I agree. Can it match the GAC effect? If '19 is below 2012 on the 10th, I think we can safely say "yes" to that. Whether that will also overcome that long, slumping curve at the bottom, well... Right now, with the the nastiness going on with France's little export, all the little cyclones, et al., it's going to be interesting!