Bye bye Laptev!
This would be GAC equivalent damage due to the worsened overall state of the ice in 2019
I believe as volume approaches 0, rate of extent and area declines will hasten relative to volume losses (it is necessary as 0 in one is 0 in the other but 1,000 KM^3 of volume remaining could easily be 1,000,000KM^2+ area and extent). At that point 1,000,000 has a lot farther numerically speaking to fall to hit 0 than volume does. When it happens, it will happen QUICKLY.
I think we could see the same effect, but dulled given our current and possible final position, as we fall a substantial % below 2012 this year. But it won't be a BOE. We will still have 2M KM^2ish+ of area and extent, IMO, at minimum. This is still potentially an order of magnitude worse than 2012 in terms of overall climactic impact (both in the Arctic and the mid-latitudes and beyond, as open water and OHC are much worse than seven years ago).
The Laptev ice is almost entirely .5M or less in thickness at this point. One major cyclonic event with borderline temps and it will go the way of the ESS. It could finally be on the horizon, at least according to tonight's 00z EURO at D7.
Finally, a comparison between the models shows the GFS has a similar event around D9 as the low responsible for the rapid deepening is delayed.
The Canadian is also a bit more delayed, and winds the low up on the ATL / Laptev boundary instead of closer to the heart of the CAB.
There is certainly increasing support for some kind of event in the D6-9 range.