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aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5050 on: July 31, 2019, 12:18:10 PM »
It was not fully intended, but by the way and by way of illustration, GFS has come closer to others global models, and is showing more deepening forced by diabatic heating.

Fascinating. So we should keep our eyes peeled for underestimated lows?

If only it was that simple :D But yes, it can be one of the conclusion.

echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5051 on: July 31, 2019, 12:45:53 PM »
A friend living north of St Petersburg told me that the blueberries are ripe one month early this month .... Nobody can remember them this ready at this time.  Surely this is a natural indication of a high soil temperature. Not good for Arctic ice assuming this can be extrapolated across the edges of Laptev and Kara .
Terrific. Now we're anecdoting blueberries in St. Petersburg as a clue to ASI..LOL

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5052 on: July 31, 2019, 12:50:21 PM »
A friend living north of St Petersburg told me that the blueberries are ripe one month early this month .... Nobody can remember them this ready at this time.  Surely this is a natural indication of a high soil temperature. Not good for Arctic ice assuming this can be extrapolated across the edges of Laptev and Kara .
Terrific. Now we're anecdoting blueberries in St. Petersburg as a clue to ASI..LOL
There are a significant number of scientists working full-time just on the subject of changes in the timing of events such as the ripening of fruits and berries.

Keep on posting stuff like this, Jontenoy. Ignore the ignorance of others.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5053 on: July 31, 2019, 12:51:16 PM »
2012 was exceptional in it's ability to dent the deep inner portion.

2019 has been at the front of the pack in efficiently dealing with the portions we expect to melt but hasn't YET demonstrated the exceptional qualities necessary to make a significant dent in the deep inner portion. Most prominent is limited advance on the Atlantic side.

There doesn't appear to be a lot of empirical basis for extrapolating 2019 performance to date to major CAB reductions and a record.
2012 was exceptional in several metrics, but actually not in the CAB. 2016 (green) ran neck and neck with 2012 (yellow orange) all the way to the bottom, before being hit by an early CAB refreeze. This is supported by both UH AMSR2 (see petm's post #5024) and NSIDC.

2016  and 2012 we're both exceptional with respect to the CAB.

Oren shared a chart in the PIOMAS thread showing 2012 far ahead in CAB volume loss vs. other years.
I wish you would post less... oren's CAB volume chart in the PIOMAS thread shows 2019 in the lead. You post inaccuracies interspersed with useless conjecture, the combination is understandably off-putting yet for some reason here you are, still posting...

Oren's chart shows 2012 CAB beating every other year by close to 1,000 km3 in the final month of the melting season.

Like I said earlier, the finish of the 2012 melt season was parallel to Hurricane Harvey as a rain event. Unparalleled and off the charts.

This season will need a finish approaching that to top it.

Thanks for the compliment.

....you said


Oren shared a chart in the PIOMAS thread showing 2012 far ahead in CAB volume loss vs. other years.

2019 is AHEAD of 2012. You did not qualify it as September, you said it as if it were current, and how would you make a statement about 2019's September volume at this point anyways? It isn't even August yet.

You make falsifiable statements and then twist them around and keep arguing for no good reason. I hope you are banned.


And you just claimed the ESS was unprecented in it's current stage of decay.

And it turns out multiple other years are tied with 2019.

While 2007 was much worse.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5054 on: July 31, 2019, 01:00:33 PM »
The ice was definitely worse in 2012 at this point.

2012 had very low snow depth and it was crushed off the ice in the second week of June for the most part.

That gave 2012 a huge jump.  Also 2011 had the worst ice in the fall so far on record.

It's not surprising the 2019 CAB ice is healthier than 2012 at this point.

Also look at the CAA not even close.




I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5055 on: July 31, 2019, 01:09:25 PM »
This was also right when an amazing event took place.

For 3 maybe 4 days.  We saw record warmth with sunny skies press off the NA land area.  And cross over still EPIC level ssts in the Beaufort.  Combined with very warm temps coming off the land warm NW CAA.

The MYI where 3-4M thick ice resided in the far Western CAB was pulverised.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5056 on: July 31, 2019, 01:54:19 PM »
...
Keep on posting stuff like this, Jontenoy. Ignore the ignorance of others.
I support; thank you for posting about 'em blueberries, Jontenoy. We need every bit of anyhow related observation we can get.

P.S. It ain't just blueberries and anecdotal, as it turns out: in Lithuania (not too far), "winter barley matured really early. And it surprised that winter barley matured in the middle of July. I don't remember such a thing over my 20 years of farming".

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5057 on: July 31, 2019, 02:44:46 PM »
A friend living north of St Petersburg told me that the blueberries are ripe one month early this month .... Nobody can remember them this ready at this time.  Surely this is a natural indication of a high soil temperature. Not good for Arctic ice assuming this can be extrapolated across the edges of Laptev and Kara .
Terrific. Now we're anecdoting blueberries in St. Petersburg as a clue to ASI..LOL
There are a significant number of scientists working full-time just on the subject of changes in the timing of events such as the ripening of fruits and berries.

Keep on posting stuff like this, Jontenoy. Ignore the ignorance of others.

Yes, and there are a significant number of scientists working full time just on the subject of changes of bird numbers, bee colonies, soil health, water levels in Spanish lakes, etc, you name it. Does not mean that those (or blueberry production in Russia) has anything to do with sea-ice.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5058 on: July 31, 2019, 02:54:24 PM »
Besides, instead of anecdotal evidence, we have very good measurements of actual temperatures. I attach 2019 0601-0728 vs 1980-2010 average. Turns out it was not even very warm (though warmer than average but that is true for all of Europe) around St.Petersburg or Lithuania! And even if it were, it would not matter. But what matters is that it was very warm in the Arctic.

NevB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5059 on: July 31, 2019, 03:26:42 PM »
BTW, is old ice more resistant to melt than young ice, i assume yes but am not sure.

Yes it's less salty.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5060 on: July 31, 2019, 03:34:05 PM »
Very little drift again today.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5061 on: July 31, 2019, 04:16:21 PM »
I for one, apparently ignorant, can't see how blackberry's are related to THIS 2019 melting season
and then which St. Petersburg. The real one, the copy or an even other one?

It's climate-related and climate is the one thing influencing the sea ice.

If you want to have a bigger picture, you need to look for variables. Plants might help us find variables for interpreting the climate. I for one find this correlation pretty obvious.

Can you, Philopek, preclude such a correlation? If so, please explain.
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stjuuv

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5062 on: July 31, 2019, 04:26:28 PM »
I would rather read or scroll by an occasional post about blueberries in Russia, even though we don't need to infer climate or temperatures through plants in this day and age.

However, when each of the blueberries is followed by 8 (and counting) posts arguing whether it's OK to post about blueberries, that becomes the actual problem. I'd say about 90% of the offtopic posts in this thread is people arguing about whether something was offtopic or not, so perhaps let's cut down on that instead and let the occasional blueberry posts be?

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5063 on: July 31, 2019, 04:35:51 PM »
Hear hear! Just ignore comments without posting. Also proxies of changing climate like soil temperature have nothing to do with air temperature but rather heat accumulation over a period of months.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5064 on: July 31, 2019, 04:55:12 PM »
Hear hear! Just ignore comments without posting. Also proxies of changing climate like soil temperature have nothing to do with air temperature but rather heat accumulation over a period of months.
That might melt early snowfall (often occurs well before sea ice minimum date) thereby affecting land sea temperature gradient thereby affecting....... sea ice melt or freeze ? It's a complicated, connected world.
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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5065 on: July 31, 2019, 04:59:14 PM »
if we can infer from a berry ripening at 60'N what the weather is up to at 80-90'N ,why do we complain about a lack of buoys ? We don't really need them after all .. :)

Of course all the hot air on this and the area and extent thread will be causing bottom melt .

 Ice is extending into Laptev from the N again .. a warm water welcome awaits .. b.c.



 

2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5066 on: July 31, 2019, 05:30:39 PM »
A friend living north of St Petersburg told me that the blueberries are ripe one month early this month .... Nobody can remember them this ready at this time.  Surely this is a natural indication of a high soil temperature. Not good for Arctic ice assuming this can be extrapolated across the edges of Laptev and Kara .

Always good to have persons who don't normally contribute to post comments but this comment would be better posted here...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1786.0.html

Best to leave this thread focus only on the melt season.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5067 on: July 31, 2019, 05:38:07 PM »
2016  and 2012 we're both exceptional with respect to the CAB.

Oren shared a chart in the PIOMAS thread showing 2012 far ahead in CAB volume loss vs. other years.

I wish you would post less... oren's CAB volume chart in the PIOMAS thread shows 2019 in the lead. You post inaccuracies interspersed with useless conjecture, the combination is understandably off-putting yet for some reason here you are, still posting...

You should have simply pointed out the mistake.

echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5068 on: July 31, 2019, 05:45:42 PM »
A friend living north of St Petersburg told me that the blueberries are ripe one month early this month .... Nobody can remember them this ready at this time.  Surely this is a natural indication of a high soil temperature. Not good for Arctic ice assuming this can be extrapolated across the edges of Laptev and Kara .
Terrific. Now we're anecdoting blueberries in St. Petersburg as a clue to ASI..LOL
There are a significant number of scientists working full-time just on the subject of changes in the timing of events such as the ripening of fruits and berries.

Keep on posting stuff like this, Jontenoy. Ignore the ignorance of others.

Yes, and there are a significant number of scientists working full time just on the subject of changes of bird numbers, bee colonies, soil health, water levels in Spanish lakes, etc, you name it. Does not mean that those (or blueberry production in Russia) has anything to do with sea-ice.

Of course. But researchers studying butterfly-effects of climate change are ubiquitous these days. What can you do? You can't deny, you can't question, and you can't show opposing evidence...as it is all considered cherry-picking. EX...NA temps so far this year are at or below normal. But we all digress from 2019 melt season, which is the topic... :o

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5069 on: July 31, 2019, 05:49:27 PM »
Always good to have persons who don't normally contribute to post comments but this comment would be better posted here...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1786.0.html

Best to leave this thread focus only on the melt season.

+1

Also, for discussions of questionable importance to the current melt season:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.0.html

And for meta discussions about what should or should not be posted and where:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1562.0.html

Among other threads...

HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5070 on: July 31, 2019, 06:10:13 PM »
posting in the potpourri thread

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5071 on: July 31, 2019, 08:57:33 PM »
2016  and 2012 we're both exceptional with respect to the CAB.

Oren shared a chart in the PIOMAS thread showing 2012 far ahead in CAB volume loss vs. other years.

I wish you would post less... oren's CAB volume chart in the PIOMAS thread shows 2019 in the lead. You post inaccuracies interspersed with useless conjecture, the combination is understandably off-putting yet for some reason here you are, still posting...

You should have simply pointed out the mistake.

There was no mistake SH. In my OP (post 5021), my point is very specific in relating to the exceptional volume "finish" in 2012.

In my follow up post referencing Oren's CAB chart (post 5033), I am clearly supporting my OP contention that 2012 had an exceptional finish vis a vis volume.

There is nothing in my post which is saying that 2012 is ahead of 2019 at July 15 wrt volume.

BBR is ill-tempered and in this case suffering from misinterpretation. To your point, it is generally good form to ask for clarification when someone posts something that you think is incorrect. My hopes are not high that bbr will adapt.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5072 on: July 31, 2019, 08:59:52 PM »
Hello Rich. Unfortunately you are impossible to ignore.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5073 on: July 31, 2019, 09:03:44 PM »
...
Question. Is the late melting in the ESS, despite the southerly location, due to lower salinity, stronger ice, permafrost ~30m below, pacific and atlantic ocean currents causing compaction or other (your suggestion)?
Mainly other. As you note, it's southerly location, pretty much the last such southerly location to melt this season. I've seen signs through the season indicating ESS would give up much sooner than it actually did; further, quite a few others did the same - and posted as such upthread. And with pieces like this one, published all the way back in 2011... I tend not to believe in such coincedences. They clear the sky for military parades and they form clouds and cause artificial rain for agricultural purposes; heck, we now have large countries blaming each other of "stealing rain", even, you know? So i suggest, via Occam's Razor - the call was heard. Let's just keep it at that.

You asked for "suggestion", mind you - and so i gave one. If you'd ask for say "provable data" or "published source", etc, - then, of course, you would not hear it (even if i could actually prove it, because it's one dangerous thing to prove such a suggestion in public).

Cheers.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5074 on: July 31, 2019, 09:08:01 PM »
You asked for "suggestion"
Nope, not biting with that one on this thread :)

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5075 on: July 31, 2019, 09:33:31 PM »
Nope, not biting with that one on this thread :)
Oh well, back to concrete data then. About ESS, i'm sure someone better than me can give a summary of cloud cover over the region though the season, right?

As for me, i'll just humbly note that Greenland's summit station (~3200m elevation) observes (slightly) above-zero temperatures for the 2nd day in a row during past-noon hours, as seen on their website. Some 200+ hours forecast still lists 2030+ high over Greenland. I wonder how exactly many days it'd take meltwater pulse to reach sea ice after this. Probably noone knows though.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5076 on: July 31, 2019, 09:35:37 PM »
It's probably a good idea to take a break from posting for a couple of days (or more if you can). ;)
Here are unihamburg amsr2-uhh september minimums from 2012-2018 overlaid onto noaa bathymetry. I leave it to the viewer to discern the level of correlation between ice location and ocean depth, only pointing out the obvious discrepancies over the Beaufort/CAB and the ESS/CAB.

Question. Is the late melting in the ESS, despite the southerly location, due to lower salinity, stronger ice, permafrost ~30m below, pacific and atlantic ocean currents causing compaction or other (your suggestion)?

tech note: osi saf is estimated over the previous 3 days so, while extremely useful, should probably be considered as historic.

I would say its down to the distance from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The freshwater input, the depth, and the surface salinity are similar. Any incursions of warm water from the pacific are deflected along the Alaskan coast, and the Atlantic waters have already sunk below the halocline before they reach the Laptev, never mind the ESS. On average weather systems that can carry humid air from the Pacific or Atlantic have to cross more ice before reaching the ESS, The air will be on average cooler and dryer, and transfer less energy to the ice.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5077 on: July 31, 2019, 09:38:19 PM »
It's probably a good idea to take a break from posting for a couple of days (or more if you can). ;)
Here are unihamburg amsr2-uhh september minimums from 2012-2018 overlaid onto noaa bathymetry. I leave it to the viewer to discern the level of correlation between ice location and ocean depth, only pointing out the obvious discrepancies over the Beaufort/CAB and the ESS/CAB.

Question. Is the late melting in the ESS, despite the southerly location, due to lower salinity, stronger ice, permafrost ~30m below, pacific and atlantic ocean currents causing compaction or other (your suggestion)?

tech note: osi saf is estimated over the previous 3 days so, while extremely useful, should probably be considered as historic.

I would say its down to the distance from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The freshwater input, the depth, and the surface salinity are similar. Any incursions of warm water from the pacific are deflected along the Alaskan coast, and the Atlantic waters have already sunk below the halocline before they reach the Laptev, never mind the ESS. On average weather systems that can carry humid air from the Pacific or Atlantic have to cross more ice before reaching the ESS, The air will be on average cooler and dryer, and transfer less energy to the ice.
yep, likely. And this years hole at the end of the atlantic current?

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5078 on: July 31, 2019, 09:54:58 PM »
It's probably a good idea to take a break from posting for a couple of days (or more if you can). ;)
Here are unihamburg amsr2-uhh september minimums from 2012-2018 overlaid onto noaa bathymetry. I leave it to the viewer to discern the level of correlation between ice location and ocean depth, only pointing out the obvious discrepancies over the Beaufort/CAB and the ESS/CAB.

Question. Is the late melting in the ESS, despite the southerly location, due to lower salinity, stronger ice, permafrost ~30m below, pacific and atlantic ocean currents causing compaction or other (your suggestion)?

tech note: osi saf is estimated over the previous 3 days so, while extremely useful, should probably be considered as historic.

I would say its down to the distance from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The freshwater input, the depth, and the surface salinity are similar. Any incursions of warm water from the pacific are deflected along the Alaskan coast, and the Atlantic waters have already sunk below the halocline before they reach the Laptev, never mind the ESS. On average weather systems that can carry humid air from the Pacific or Atlantic have to cross more ice before reaching the ESS, The air will be on average cooler and dryer, and transfer less energy to the ice.
yep, likely. And this years hole at the end of the atlantic current?

Guessing again. Shoaling (i need to check the bathymetry) or simply consistent wind patterns opening up a polynya.
I'm more concerned that the opening up of the Greenland coast is showing what a few decades of entraining extra heat into the Halocline is going to do. Thinner ice more susceptible to melt from shoaling of warm saline deep waters. Going out on a limb It also suggests that the Nares might not close again.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5079 on: July 31, 2019, 10:00:36 PM »
Thanks RoxTG. Wind patterns over the ESS 'hole' don't explain it to me. Please verify at your leisure. (It's pretty shallow throughout the whole area)
Who knows if mercator is correct north of Greenland? but it appears relatively consistent with what we are seeing.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5080 on: July 31, 2019, 10:06:37 PM »
It's probably a good idea to take a break from posting for a couple of days (or more if you can). ;)
Here are unihamburg amsr2-uhh september minimums from 2012-2018 overlaid onto noaa bathymetry. I leave it to the viewer to discern the level of correlation between ice location and ocean depth, only pointing out the obvious discrepancies over the Beaufort/CAB and the ESS/CAB.

Question. Is the late melting in the ESS, despite the southerly location, due to lower salinity, stronger ice, permafrost ~30m below, pacific and atlantic ocean currents causing compaction or other (your suggestion)?

tech note: osi saf is estimated over the previous 3 days so, while extremely useful, should probably be considered as historic.

I would say its down to the distance from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The freshwater input, the depth, and the surface salinity are similar. Any incursions of warm water from the pacific are deflected along the Alaskan coast, and the Atlantic waters have already sunk below the halocline before they reach the Laptev, never mind the ESS. On average weather systems that can carry humid air from the Pacific or Atlantic have to cross more ice before reaching the ESS, The air will be on average cooler and dryer, and transfer less energy to the ice.
According to PIOMAS, it's certainly stronger ice. Check out for example this April 15th animation by Wipneus.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg196075.html#msg196075

Of course, the distance from the Atlantic and Pacific inflows is a major factor, and it also has to do with the ice being stronger.
I for one don't think bathymetry has that much of an impact, except where it's correlated with these incoming currents on the Atlantic front, or where it's correlated with being in the core rather than on the periphery. If bathymetry was the deciding factor, the ESS would melt out and the western Beaufort would be more resilient.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5081 on: July 31, 2019, 10:37:32 PM »
Hello Rich. Unfortunately you are impossible to ignore.


Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5082 on: July 31, 2019, 10:39:18 PM »
You asked for "suggestion"
Nope, not biting with that one on this thread :)

...not everything is a conspiracy...

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5083 on: July 31, 2019, 10:42:18 PM »
I think ESS resistance may also be partly the result of the Beaufort gyre and the southern winds in from the Bering pushing Chukchi ice toward the ESS.

The gyre sends the strongest ice that doesn't melt in the Beaufort toward the northern reaches of the ESS where some at least gets shifted south most years into the ESS.

The winds coming from the pacific into the Chukchi and at least some of the current part of the time are shifting Chukchi ice west on both sides of Wrangel Island.

And if the winds are from the east, some ice arrives from the shift of ice from the Laptev.

The ice in the Chukchi is attacked from the Bering, the Ice in the Laptev is hit with whatever causes the Laptev bite, and the Kara is attacked from the Atlantic - the ESS (in a similar fashion as how everyone talks about the CAB being 'protected' late into the season) is the arctic coastal sea most protected by the other seas around it and can more easily import ice regardless of whichever direction the bias of the melt season is tilted toward.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5084 on: July 31, 2019, 10:46:27 PM »
I think ESS resistance may also be partly the result of the Beaufort gyre and the southern winds in from the Bering pushing Chukchi ice toward the ESS.

The gyre sends the strongest ice that doesn't melt in the Beaufort toward the northern reaches of the ESS where some at least gets shifted south most years into the ESS.

The winds coming from the pacific into the Chukchi and at least some of the current part of the time are shifting Chukchi ice west on both sides of Wrangel Island.

And if the winds are from the east, some ice arrives from the shift of ice from the Laptev.

The ice in the Chukchi is attacked from the Bering, the Ice in the Laptev is hit with whatever causes the Laptev bite, and the Kara is attacked from the Atlantic - the ESS (in a similar fashion as how everyone talks about the CAB being 'protected' late into the season) is the arctic coastal sea most protected by the other seas around it and can more easily import ice regardless of whichever direction the bias of the melt season is tilted toward.
nice, good ideas.
It didn't come up before, but the CAA?

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5085 on: July 31, 2019, 11:01:31 PM »
Quote
-Chukchi Sea-
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (Days 1 through 5)...Winds will vary
with the low pressure system moving through the area. Expect the ice
edge to initially retreat 10 to 20 nm by Wednesday, followed by an
advance of around the same amount
.
https://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_seaice
(Emphasis added.)

Been watching this forecast for a few weeks now and this is the first time I've seen it mention any advance.


bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5086 on: July 31, 2019, 11:14:46 PM »
Quote
-Chukchi Sea-
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (Days 1 through 5)...Winds will vary
with the low pressure system moving through the area. Expect the ice
edge to initially retreat 10 to 20 nm by Wednesday, followed by an
advance of around the same amount
.
https://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_seaice
(Emphasis added.)

Been watching this forecast for a few weeks now and this is the first time I've seen it mention any advance.

It is probably dispersion. The edge may be advancing but the ice is still melting.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5087 on: July 31, 2019, 11:16:22 PM »
Yes, certainly still melting.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5088 on: August 01, 2019, 12:20:58 AM »
Thanks RoxTG. Wind patterns over the ESS 'hole' don't explain it to me. Please verify at your leisure. (It's pretty shallow throughout the whole area)
Who knows if mercator is correct north of Greenland? but it appears relatively consistent with what we are seeing.
The ESS was hit hard in June, and in July more than one storm has visited the region. The last one included those winds cutting like knife. I can’t provide evidence, but I am not surprised of its state.
I attach the tropicaltidbits rotated cropped EC SLP/500 mPa charts from four days ago to yesterday, note the isobars over the now damned region, and this is the cherry of the cake.

PS. Also the cyclone over the entire pack around July 20 forced the ESS ice to move towards Wrangel and Chukchi, and it is my impression that a big chunk of ESS could have mingled with hot water there. That water mixes very poorly with the broken ice pack, but there are mechanisms to accelerate it (2D turbulence forcing ice to be engulfed by eddies of warm currents).
Yeah, another theory I cannot support but by the human eye watching the ice edge there over the days and the funny geometries that arise.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 12:35:45 AM by Sterks »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5089 on: August 01, 2019, 12:35:24 AM »
I can’t provide evidence, but I am not surprised of its state.
I attach the tropicaltidbits rotated cropped EC SLP/500 mPa charts from four days ago to yesterday, note the isobars over the now damned region, and this is the cherry of the cake.
[/quote]
Hello Sterks. You are late.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5090 on: August 01, 2019, 12:38:32 AM »
I can’t provide evidence, but I am not surprised of its state.
I attach the tropicaltidbits rotated cropped EC SLP/500 mPa charts from four days ago to yesterday, note the isobars over the now damned region, and this is the cherry of the cake.
Hello Sterks. You are late.
[/quote]
Well I’m not really preoccupied with being late, I don’t want to be late tomorrow at work though, but if I am it won’t be the end of the world either.
So yeah, ok, cheers.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5091 on: August 01, 2019, 01:57:02 AM »
 ... and then ( when nobody was looking )  along came a GAC (gfs) .. less bs .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5092 on: August 01, 2019, 02:09:50 AM »
... and then ( when nobody was looking )  along came a GAC (gfs) .. less bs .. b.c.

Hmmmm... GFS teasing us again. :/

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5093 on: August 01, 2019, 02:13:29 AM »
10 days out...

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5094 on: August 01, 2019, 02:31:28 AM »
10 days out...

   8 days out it is very similar in depth on the same day , as the GAC , first forecast on ECMWF 0Z 01.08.2012.
   Most important ; the models recognise the potential .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5095 on: August 01, 2019, 03:49:40 AM »
On ECMWF model, there is also a low pressure in the middle of the Arctic on 10 days, but not as low.
GFS: 975          ECMWF: 1001 Hpa.

The forecast is too far to be trusted, but are we playing dice with the future? The difference between GAC or not GAC is transcendent. It defines September record but also the beginning of the freezing season.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5096 on: August 01, 2019, 03:59:27 AM »
High pressure dominated Arctic seen in paint drip.  I think the present heat dome over Greenland, which is stationary, will be the last of the heat & pressure incursions reaching the North Pole.  It seems to my eyes like it sits there and loses heat to melt the ice, lowering geopotential height of the Arctic significantly.

Outlooks have risen for a return out of negative AO territory.  At the same time, the Antarctic Oscillation is expected to endure a severe drop negative, with high pressure taking over the pole.

Well that's interesting. 

El Nino SSTs were on the move how long ago?  Makes me wonder if the central Pacific El Nino strength was larger than we thought.  If it's been 4-6 weeks then maybe we're coming out of it in the next 2?  Could help explain a monster year.
I am not a scientist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5097 on: August 01, 2019, 05:41:41 AM »
Open water is growing around the funnel of the Lincoln Sea - an image from Worldview for 31 July

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5098 on: August 01, 2019, 05:48:27 AM »
Plants might help us find variables for interpreting the climate. I for one find this correlation pretty obvious.

Can you, Philopek, preclude such a correlation? If so, please explain.

Interesting, but a discussion for another thread, there's a lot going on with the ice right now, as the denouement draws near , let's stay on topic, please

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5099 on: August 01, 2019, 06:06:22 AM »
The 18Z GFS run on Climate analyser sees a big storm taking over most of the basin later in the run, not quite a GAC, but lots of fairly strong wind. The EC today on Windy disagrees, so we'll have to wait and see. (both see continuing injections of heat and moisture especially over the Canadian and Pacific sectors and adjacent CAB).

If the AO turns negative now, with an increase in cloud and possible storms, just as the sun is getting low at high latitudes, especially if combined with further incoming physical or latent heat, I don't think that is the best news. The N Hem tropical cyclone season is just about to crank into action. GFS also foresees an Atlantic hurricane missing Florida, and beginning a swing north, Again a long shot, but its a sign of the dangers the cooling after summers peak may bring