milwen, have you done this for previous years and didi the result forecast the ice minimum? I guess not
Probably not but also often not that far from it.
I. The area with thick ice in previous years was 2-3 times larger, hence 2012 could match such a forecast quite well had it been made.
II. The ice in general in earlier years was thicker (look at the volume and wait for the new July volume for emphasizes. I predict a few "Octopus-Eyes" here once the July numbers will be out.
III. The area with thin ice in previous years was larger as well, hence attacking the inner basin
was starting later because the ice around 75-80N had to be melted before.
IV. The thin ice in previous years was mostly less thin = thicker.
I promote since long the theory that sooner or later we gonna be in for a nasty surprise because whatever remains and however large extent of it will be, we are going to reach zero thickness and if that happens over a large area with relatively similar ice-thickness, it can happen extremely fast even without a GAC, while i think if we are going to see either one big storm, lasting a week. or many slightly weaker storms over a few days until mid August we're done with the old record.
As far as the above mentioned is concerned, one would have to calculate chances for 50cm thick ice around the pole to melt during the next few weeks. I can't because i lack the skills to to that.