Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 2065278 times)

peterlvmeng

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5250 on: August 04, 2019, 01:15:23 PM »
Indeed. A lot of ice is in the process of going "poof" in the Beaufort, including the largest floes. Expect large drops there in area and extent over a few days. I posted some graphics of it over in the RAMMB thread, if you're interested:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2649.msg218925.html#msg218925

Edit: And before-after as seen using WV spy mode: https://go.nasa.gov/2GKSOUB
This is the Worldview version. Only one day! Look at those big floes. Wave action?
https://go.nasa.gov/2GFDWqH
Wow. Those streamers around the ice. This is what happens when the CAB ice is exported south, initially extent seems to be holding up, but insolation, warm water, some stirring of the pot, and the weakness is exposed.
This year has seen crazy export, both towards the Atlantic (this thankfully stopped about a month ago) and towards the Beaufort (this never stopped). This is what gives it a shot at a new record or near-record.
The SST of North Atlantic side seems not so positive anamoly. The pacific side is still torching in the long run by Euro and GFS prediction within 10 days. Compaction and melt is inevitable. The whole ice pack is pushing to the atlantic side though not so devastating through Fram export. Up to now we do not see much storm, maybe because the arctic is too warm and the upper troposphere is stable.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5251 on: August 04, 2019, 04:02:22 PM »
The battle for the North Pole?

The cyclone is there right now.

M10 & Cloud Layer RGB bands

Greenland & Ellesmere upper right for orientation.

Will this cyclone push ice towards Nares?

It will cause the ice to disperse which should slow the drop in extent even more. At this stage of the season though, export of ice is not the key to the minimum. Melt in the CAB is and a more disperse ice may be more prone to melt.

FishOutofWater

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1088
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 696
  • Likes Given: 332
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5252 on: August 04, 2019, 04:15:58 PM »
Except for an area of the northern Barents sea between Svalbard and FJI which has been cooled by advection of ice into the waters, SSTs are anomalously high on the Atlantic side. Anomalies on the Atlantic side were higher in 2012 when there was less advection of ice into the northern Barents sea but 2012 was exceptionally warm in Greenland and the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

SST's this early August are shockingly high in the northern hemisphere and the anomalies are largest in the northern regions of the NH oceans and seas.

All this ocean heat is increasing the tendency for atmospheric blocks to form and it's increasing atmospheric advection of heat into the arctic. That doesn't mean that extent will be lower this September than in 2012 but it will be a major factor in low sea ice extent this September.


Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 551
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 238
  • Likes Given: 61
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5253 on: August 04, 2019, 04:57:12 PM »
Except for an area of the northern Barents sea between Svalbard and FJI which has been cooled by advection of ice into the waters, SSTs are anomalously high on the Atlantic side.<snip>

Yes, SST anomalies have gone crazy recently, on both the atlantic and the pacific side. Animation below for the past 6 weeks.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

wdmn

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 584
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 231
  • Likes Given: 182
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5254 on: August 04, 2019, 06:44:18 PM »
Except for an area of the northern Barents sea between Svalbard and FJI which has been cooled by advection of ice into the waters, SSTs are anomalously high on the Atlantic side.<snip>

Yes, SST anomalies have gone crazy recently, on both the atlantic and the pacific side. Animation below for the past 6 weeks.



My naive reaction is that those anomalies around the CAA suggest that a complete melt out is possible there.

grixm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 699
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 374
  • Likes Given: 131
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5255 on: August 04, 2019, 07:23:56 PM »
Except for an area of the northern Barents sea between Svalbard and FJI which has been cooled by advection of ice into the waters, SSTs are anomalously high on the Atlantic side.<snip>

Yes, SST anomalies have gone crazy recently, on both the atlantic and the pacific side. Animation below for the past 6 weeks.


My naive reaction is that those anomalies around the CAA suggest that a complete melt out is possible there.

The thickness in most of the CAA is already very low according to PIOMAS, so I agree.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3410
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 650
  • Likes Given: 244
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5256 on: August 04, 2019, 08:33:25 PM »
The battle for the North Pole?
The cyclone is there right now.
Will this cyclone push ice towards Nares?
It will cause the ice to disperse which should slow the drop in extent even more. At this stage of the season though, export of ice is not the key to the minimum. Melt in the CAB is and a more disperse ice may be more prone to melt.
Area loss should indeed rise, in the style of 2016.  We may again see end of season numbers with extent higher than 2012, but area under.
This space for Rent.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5257 on: August 04, 2019, 10:52:36 PM »
According to the number of posts on this thread today, the weather is calming down for now... It seems like the "excitement of a catastrophe" is receding...

We all slow down our cars to have a better look at the accident on the other side of the freeway, don't we?

« Last Edit: August 04, 2019, 10:59:56 PM by Freegrass »
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 168
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5258 on: August 04, 2019, 11:13:35 PM »
Forecast 850hp temps at 96hr shows that the cooler air is reasonably anchored near the north pole.  There is some pressure from warm air from the Pacific and Russian side, but mostly over fringe ice that is pretty much certain to melt out anyway.



At 144 hour the pressure from the warm air becomes more substantial and the cool air is being squashed towards Greenland, but is still maintaining a presence in the Arctic.  The warm air is starting to impact the region of CAB ice that may or may not melt out by minimum.  Small changes at this range though could keep the warm air out of the central regions entirely, or result in a more significant warm air incursion that is able to displace the cold air entirely outside the central Arctic region, which is what happens in the most damaging heatwaves.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5259 on: August 04, 2019, 11:28:57 PM »
According to the number of posts on this thread today, the weather is calming down for now... It seems like the "excitement of a catastrophe" is receding...
Not really. But the weather forecasts do not really converge. Past day four it goes either all in in terms of heat, or a low just makes a stronghold at Beaufort sea and keeps things cooler (but windy).
So what all seemed to agree before may be trash and I am sorry for misleading yesterday, shouldn’t trust anything beyond the first five days, and in any case very interesting scenarios ahead, really willing to slow down and have a peek.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2019, 11:34:11 PM by Sterks »

Iain

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 584
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 95
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5260 on: August 05, 2019, 12:47:47 AM »

My naive reaction is that those anomalies around the CAA suggest that a complete melt out is possible there.
[/quote]

The thickness in most of the CAA is already very low according to PIOMAS, so I agree.
[/quote]

The tidal flow is generally from North to South through the CAA, so the CAA gets filled with floes from the CAB. Recently the wind has been from the South, preventing the usual South going export, but it looks like that has restarted.

The breakup of the first channel from CAB to Parry Chanel occurred at the end of July, the earliest on a tie with 2012. The export flow has continued into October in the past.
"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5261 on: August 05, 2019, 01:32:35 AM »
According to the number of posts on this thread today, the weather is calming down for now... It seems like the "excitement of a catastrophe" is receding...
...shouldn’t trust anything beyond the first five days...
AMEN to that!
When I watch the weather on the pole on Nullschool, the forecast changes from day to day. I didn't know the weather in the arctic could be so erratic...

But it does seem that the weather is calming down for now. And it must be true, because this thread is calming down as well... ;)
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 01:39:35 AM by Freegrass »
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5262 on: August 05, 2019, 03:36:39 AM »
The crack, the persistent southerlies and the warmth released by descending air(foehn winds and high pressure ridges) are enough to explain the thinning on the Greenland/CAA edge of the basin, though warm water seems to be affecting NE Greenland, EC shows 2C water in part of the crack there, right at NE tip of Greenland..

I had a bit of a look on Sentinel.  I've attached a close up and wider view of ice in the Lincoln Sea, near the open water on its west shore, showing worn pebble shaped floes peppered with open water.

I also attached a couple of views centred on about 82.6,-102, about 100km NW of Axel Heiberg Island, also showing somewhat dispersed ice

Edit: The closeups are at Sentinels 500m resolution, I hadn't realised its screenshot tool left the scale out

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5263 on: August 05, 2019, 03:46:02 AM »
Unfortunately Sentinel doesn't have coverage of the Arctic Ocean much beyond land (or above 82.8 degrees) with the partial exception of the CAB north of the CAA. I went out as far as I could to sea to find a recent clear image. I've included a gif comparing July28 and 31 at about 82.6, -119, showing the ice spreading a little in the interval, (and moving from top right towards bottom left)

click to play

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5264 on: August 05, 2019, 04:03:59 AM »
The crack...
How about the "North American Lift"?
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5265 on: August 05, 2019, 04:54:54 AM »
GFS and EC are both forecasting another monster heatwave rolling over the Laptev sea pushed by a high on one flank, and another strong low advancing into the Kara sea, which also drives a large area of 20-30 knot winds pushing ice into the Barents sea. The Laptev bite will advance rapidly for a few days if it plays out.

The real action starts about 5 days out, so its still a bit far off.

A bunch of Pacific typhoons are forecast this week, hopefully none of them head our way next week

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5266 on: August 05, 2019, 05:13:30 AM »

 while some CAB ice is constantly driven south to melt in the warm waters of the Chucki.


With the exception of a narrow band of water extending over the shallow Chuchki Plateau, the warm water in the Chuchki hasn't reached the 75N line.

CAB ice N of 80N will need to make a journey of at least 300km and perhaps over 600 km to reach warm water in the Chuchki.

It takes a lot of wind for a lot of days to push ice that far.

Currents from the Chukchi are pushing directly at the ice edge in the western Beaufort. More importantly I think, for the atmosphere 800km is not so far. Being ringed by warm SSTs will extend the melt season in the centre of the pack as the air above will struggle to cool. At the same time the warm water will likely feed storms

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5267 on: August 05, 2019, 08:59:54 AM »
According to the number of posts on this thread today, the weather is calming down for now... It seems like the "excitement of a catastrophe" is receding...
...shouldn’t trust anything beyond the first five days...
AMEN to that!
When I watch the weather on the pole on Nullschool, the forecast changes from day to day. I didn't know the weather in the arctic could be so erratic...

But it does seem that the weather is calming down for now. And it must be true, because this thread is calming down as well... ;)
Again, not really. Depends what you consider calm. A floe in CAA wouldn't be calm under the heat that started almost a week ago. A Beaufort block would be pretty nervous with storm after storm making it smaller and smaller at exponential rate. The foam at ESS is uneasy observing how Northernlies become Southernlies. A block in Laptev doesn't want to know what's coming.

Define calm as 'not beating 2012' then I don't know, it may have dodged a last bullet.

Killian

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 344
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 77
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5268 on: August 05, 2019, 10:13:19 AM »
A bunch of Pacific typhoons are forecast this week, hopefully none of them head our way next week

What's our way? I'm in Korea. We get one tomorrow. Well, tropical storm. Being in Seoul, on the W or NW of the storms, we never get much to talk about. The south gets pummeled on a occasion.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5269 on: August 05, 2019, 10:24:34 AM »
A bunch of Pacific typhoons are forecast this week, hopefully none of them head our way next week

What's our way? I'm in Korea. We get one tomorrow. Well, tropical storm. Being in Seoul, on the W or NW of the storms, we never get much to talk about. The south gets pummeled on a occasion.
I would assume subgeometer meant headed the way of the Arctic, where we all virtually belong.

Killian

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 344
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 77
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5270 on: August 05, 2019, 10:56:23 AM »
Doh!

Wildcatter

  • New ice
  • Posts: 65
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5271 on: August 05, 2019, 12:45:45 PM »
Weather pretty unfortunate given state of the ice.

Along with the Pacific side, CAA is about to get pummeled. As is Greenland, including the Northern border, and the open water NE. The ice, cracks, all along the CAA/Greenland border will likely worsen with the CAA melt accelerating as well.

System right over the Arctic could be pretty effective clearing out a not insignificant amount of the CAB. The forecast also has westerlies that may affect drift in the Beaufort/along CAA, basically the exact opposite of what we've seen all season. It'll be interesting to see the possible effects of that.

ESS will probably see some compaction if not outright melted, ESS and Laptev going to have a lot of dispersion. It's going to be an interesting next few days.

This forecast looks to be the next 24-72 hours (at minimum). Oof. I really hope that chunk above Ellesmere island isn't an artefact on the Bremen map.
BA Energy Commerce - Beta Gamma Sigma Honors Society
Texas Tech University
Bottled in the Permian Basin, aged in Austin
Good Faith Operator
Apprentice Psychohistorian
The truth is heavy, therefore few care to carry it.

Treform2

  • New ice
  • Posts: 7
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5272 on: August 05, 2019, 02:26:27 PM »
Except for an area of the northern Barents sea between Svalbard and FJI which has been cooled by advection of ice into the waters, SSTs are anomalously high on the Atlantic side.<snip>

Yes, SST anomalies have gone crazy recently, on both the atlantic and the pacific side. Animation below for the past 6 weeks.

Remember while these anomalies might look crazy and thanks for the Animation. They really only highlight where there was once Ice in the past that is now missing.  I am assuming anomalies from a thirty year average. So the actually they don’t tell us much. What areas of more interest are the oceans, Pacific and Atlantic not normally under ice. These anomalies can indicate temps of water flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

My naive reaction is that those anomalies around the CAA suggest that a complete melt out is possible there.

Treform2

  • New ice
  • Posts: 7
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5273 on: August 05, 2019, 02:28:53 PM »
Sorry my anomalies comment appeared in quoted area. My first time quoting , trust you can seperate this from original.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3825
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 951
  • Likes Given: 1251
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5274 on: August 05, 2019, 03:37:39 PM »

Define calm.
With calm I mean that there's no GAC, dipole, or other calamity on the horizon that people usually talk about on this thread.

The ever increasing large expanse of open water each year accumulates more heat with every sun ray. So this year, a lot of heat has gone into the arctic basin again. We have wildfires that are unprecedented, and the ice is lifting from the north American coast. We are witnessing unprecedented changes in the arctic, and life goes on as if nothing happened...

I think we need to build a wall around the arctic, to keep it cold and white...
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 03:43:05 PM by Freegrass »
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

peterlvmeng

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5275 on: August 05, 2019, 03:56:58 PM »
This thread becomes interesting. Fewer people are discussing on the state of ice right now. The greenhand may think the melt rate slows down and it will not break the record at this rate. The storm is not strong and the CAB ice seems to be pretty healthy compared with previous year(2016 and 2012). All the things seem to be predictable until mid September.

For those experienced person, they are just watching. They know the ice is not healthy as MODIS have shown. The ice is compacted but full of tiny cracks and could be completely disintegrated if strong wind comes. The high SST is the potential ice killer. They know the strong wind will not disappear in the melting season but delay because the arctic is too warm to form. The strong wind and storm really need cold air to distablize the upper troposphere. Once the thin ice meets strong wind at the end of melt season they know what it will mean to the ice with high SST surroundings(Ekman pumping). They also know the melt season will not stop as early as 2016 does because the Arctic is record breaking warm. It has the potential to extend the melt season to the mid September even the late September.

All these thinkings cause fewer people wants to discuss in this thread.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 04:09:48 PM by peterlvmeng »

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5276 on: August 05, 2019, 04:20:54 PM »
...
Yes, SST anomalies have gone crazy recently, on both the atlantic and the pacific side. Animation below for the past 6 weeks.

My naive reaction is that those anomalies around the CAA suggest that a complete melt out is possible there.

The thickness in most of the CAA is already very low according to PIOMAS, so I agree.
"Possible" is key word here - as noted before, now it's massively weather-dependent. Strong winds both towards and from remaing ice, water currents transporting some of those SSTs to ice, extra rain coming to ice (some of which added by those SSTs via direct evaporation and indirectly via a bit elevated background temperatures in the athmosphere), fog, larger temperature gradients of athmospheric systems somewhat affected by those SSTs among other things - i.e. weather.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1455
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5277 on: August 05, 2019, 04:24:25 PM »
Weather on top of a continously loaded dice.

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5278 on: August 05, 2019, 04:39:26 PM »
Weather on top of a continously loaded dice.
Loaded it already is, sure, but not yet as much as it can be i think. Far from. Those "lens" of warm water mentioned upthread, for example - clearly they are growing lately from season to season. So for this season? I'd say quite dramatic weather would be needed for anything close to "complete melt". Like, mega-GAC or such. The dice are not loaded enough to be otherwise - yet.

Any PIOMAS update?
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2441
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1012
  • Likes Given: 1034
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5279 on: August 05, 2019, 04:51:18 PM »
Thread quiet .. meaningful discussion continues .. the OT,OTT comments and squabbles have retreated . Interesting that the 'white noise' always reaches a crecendo when the weather is most interesting . I wonder why .. b.c.

 
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 05:10:01 PM by be cause »
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

Thomas Barlow

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5280 on: August 05, 2019, 05:01:09 PM »
Just for interest.
Comparing thickness (not extent or concentration). As many have been pointing out, notice 2012 spreads to Siberia, the size of the hole in northern Beaufort and in Chukchi this year, and the thicker ice in 2012 along CAA and N. Greenland. More (and thicker) ice in the inner CAA this year than in 2012.
Anything else to see there?
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 07:17:38 PM by Thomas Barlow »

peterlvmeng

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5281 on: August 05, 2019, 05:10:19 PM »
Have anyone noticed that the whole arctic ice is rotating right now under not strong storm effect. The ice melt in north CAA and north greenland seems to speed up because of ekman pumping by such a great ice pack rotating? Of course not ! ;D
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 05:16:42 PM by peterlvmeng »

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5282 on: August 05, 2019, 05:13:54 PM »
Will this cyclone push ice towards Nares?
Very good question. Could be IMHO.

Nope, nothing happened.

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5283 on: August 05, 2019, 06:13:26 PM »
Things keep changing fast, the central pack is not as solid as it looked one week ago, the periphery vanishes.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 318
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5284 on: August 06, 2019, 12:59:07 AM »
The CAA breakup continues. Prince Gustav Adolf Sea broke up within the last few days:

https://go.nasa.gov/33oqdyi

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 318
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5285 on: August 06, 2019, 01:02:37 AM »
Things keep changing fast, the central pack is not as solid as it looked one week ago, the periphery vanishes.

Here the NIC color version. 3-day lagging median (left) vs. originals (right).

GoodeWeather

  • New ice
  • Posts: 54
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5286 on: August 06, 2019, 01:45:56 AM »
First time poster, been lurking since 2012.  I feel like this season is the time to break the silence. 

I have never seen the ice that is along the CAA and north Greenland in worse condition than any year I have been following the arctic.  We may not hit a record minimum, but this is definitely looking like a year that is preconditioning the pack for a massive loss in the coming years.  My worry is that once the pack is detached from all land, it will be extremely mobile and deteriorate rapidly with the slightly bit of unsettled weather.

Again not happening these year, but she is starting to showmany signs of fatigue.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 318
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5287 on: August 06, 2019, 05:59:25 AM »
And today's 3-day median (left, vs. original, right).

There appears to be very little maximum concentration ice left in the CAB.

Aluminium

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1463
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1140
  • Likes Given: 680
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5288 on: August 06, 2019, 06:47:24 AM »
August 1-5.

2018.

Stephan

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2649
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 758
  • Likes Given: 459
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5289 on: August 06, 2019, 07:30:51 AM »
It looks like ice in the ESS and the remaining floes in Kara and Chukchi Seas to go "poof" soon.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5290 on: August 06, 2019, 09:56:38 AM »
Latest EC op run is interesting in the longer frame. A big HP seems to establish over the whole Arctic and bring warm and sunny weather to the ice. The sun is still pretty strong so damage will be done. In addition, a decent amount of ice should be exported to the Atlantic killer zone.

Even if we don't get a new record low this year, 2019 should serve as a good "prepper year" if 2020 should be another bad year for the ice.

Paddy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1026
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 153
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5291 on: August 06, 2019, 10:28:31 AM »
I know it's irrelevant to the larger picture, but I keep checking the hudson out on the ice maps, just to see if those last bits are still holding on. Should be down to their last few days now, though...

SimonF92

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 592
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5292 on: August 06, 2019, 10:54:51 AM »
Latest EC op run is interesting in the longer frame. A big HP seems to establish over the whole Arctic and bring warm and sunny weather to the ice. The sun is still pretty strong so damage will be done. In addition, a decent amount of ice should be exported to the Atlantic killer zone.

Even if we don't get a new record low this year, 2019 should serve as a good "prepper year" if 2020 should be another bad year for the ice.

I suppose if high pressure dominates for the foreseeable future it would help to prevent an August GAC scenario (which looks increasingly unlikely). Though I agree with the state of albedo at the moment, open skies will be pretty damaging
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5117
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2163
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5293 on: August 06, 2019, 11:00:45 AM »
Have anyone noticed that the whole arctic ice is rotating right now under not strong storm effect. The ice melt in north CAA and north greenland seems to speed up because of ekman pumping by such a great ice pack rotating? Of course not ! ;D
There may be some upwelling in places but there doesn't appear to be much rotation of the pack recently along the north CAA/Greenland coast.
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, jul30-aug5.

Hudson bay ice yesterday, worldview terra modis https://go.nasa.gov/2OKuyse

philopek

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5294 on: August 06, 2019, 11:01:59 AM »
Here a little heads-up to explain the current flattening of the extent-loss-curve.

Ice is quasi pushed to the periphery in several sectors.

We all know it's fate down south and what it means to area and vulnerability.
I think a kind of race started, cooling against conditioning for widespread collapse.

The link links to the page where the shot was taken while the movement of the air is better
visible there:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=0.84,91.59,933/loc=15.437,80.823

peterlvmeng

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5295 on: August 06, 2019, 11:23:05 AM »
Have anyone noticed that the whole arctic ice is rotating right now under not strong storm effect. The ice melt in north CAA and north greenland seems to speed up because of ekman pumping by such a great ice pack rotating? Of course not ! ;D
There may be some upwelling in places but there doesn't appear to be much rotation of the pack recently along the north CAA/Greenland coast.
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, jul30-aug5.

Hudson bay ice yesterday, worldview terra modis https://go.nasa.gov/2OKuyse
I mean through the Terra satellite image the whole arctic ice pack once rotated for a while. But as such rotation will disperse more ice to the periphery, thus the open water of north CAA and Greenland seems replaced by big floes. Of course, friction increases, rotation stops.

Mleary01

  • New ice
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5296 on: August 06, 2019, 11:37:25 AM »
It looks like ice in the ESS and the remaining floes in Kara and Chukchi Seas to go "poof" soon.

Hello all. I've decided to join after years of reading these threads  :D It's interesting to see that spine of ice that stretches into the ESS which survived the 2018 melt season is finally giving up.

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5117
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2163
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5297 on: August 06, 2019, 11:43:15 AM »
I mean through the Terra satellite image the whole arctic ice pack once rotated for a while. But as such rotation will disperse more ice to the periphery, thus the open water of north CAA and Greenland seems replaced by big floes. Of course, friction increases, rotation stops.
Thanks for the clarification. I don't think it's friction stopping the rotation. It's more likely due to the recent cyclone over the CAB and the large floes are probably due to thinner ice melting out and fast ice lifted off from the coast.
edit: Looking at osi-saf there was considerable clockwise rotation of most of the pack from jul23-28.
edit2: anti clockwise over the past 2 days aug3-4. Interesting...
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 12:25:19 PM by uniquorn »

peterlvmeng

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5298 on: August 06, 2019, 11:43:55 AM »
Flashing of part of laptev sea ice!

meddoc

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 264
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5299 on: August 06, 2019, 01:11:39 PM »
"My God, it's full of Stars Holes!"