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Tigertown

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5300 on: August 06, 2019, 05:07:17 PM »
I am looking the for rest of the CAA ice to break up soon. Above freezing SST's are encroaching on it, as well as surface air temps up 7 deg. or so over the last few days (2o to 7o on average). And now, wave action is beginning to be detectable in many of the channels where ice still remains. How long can that ice hold up? If the weather does get rougher as the season changes, this area will play a huge roll in both the melting and freezing seasons.  Probably stating the obvious.

Ossifrage

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5301 on: August 06, 2019, 05:38:50 PM »
The CAA breakup continues. Prince Gustav Adolf Sea broke up within the last few days:

https://go.nasa.gov/33oqdyi

The situation in the Prince Gustav Adolf Sea is uglier than it looks on Worldview, which already isn't good. There are three striking aspects to this breakup.

First, the speed of the event. On July 28, the PGAS was essentially intact. A single large floe (some 50 km x 10 km) spalled off the north side. All of the Arctic-facing CAA basins had been losing occasional floes to the Crack throughout the season, though, so there was no immediate reason to expect that the separation of this long, but thin, piece of ice was a harbinger of rapid change. The next several days were under cloud, although there was evidence of further disintegration visible by the 31st. On August 1, clear skies showed that the breakup had advanced some 50 km south of the Crack, but there was some reason to suspect that it might not continue to propagate, at least on the western side of the basin (which is historically more stable due to local hydrodynamics). A few more days interlude under cloud, and when we get sunshine again on the 4th, effectively the entire PGAS has shattered. The only substantially intact pack ice in the area is now confined to Ballantyne Strait and Wilkins Strait, but visibility has been poor, and so I'm likely overrating the quality of the remaining ice, especially in the Ballantyne.

Second, the condition of these floes is clearly very poor. The initial floe generated on July 28th had an obvious weak point, and was certain to break in two from its formation. But floe tracking has been impossible; even by the end of July it was impossible to conclusively distinguish the remains of that floe from the rubble of the Crack. The floes generated by the next breakup cycle, circa August 1, are mostly indistinguishable as early as August 4. Admittedly, it's possible to identify the August 4th floes in the August 5th satellite pass, but that's little comfort; it is clear that many of them have suffered measurable areal reduction in only one day of further melt action. None of the cloudy periods have represented anything like a GAC; rather, it's just normal cloud and storm activity, but the floes can't hold up to it at all.

Third, comparing the August 4th and August 5th images, it is clear that there is northward drift in the PGAS. This caught me very much by surprise. Historically, PGAS ice moves south; over a period of several years, it is one of the "garlic press" vectors that supplies (formerly) MYI to the Parry Channel. Additionally, what limited studies have been done suggest that the PGAS itself supported a local clockwise current (which is the reason for the lesser stability in the east half of the basin -- see the melt patterns in 2012). I had assumed that the northward flow of ice from the Crack-adjacent CAA was the consequence of the fairly rapid clockwise rotation that the CAB pack had been experiencing. But the last few days suggest that rotation has stalled, or even reversed slightly. This changes the fate of ice in the regional system substantially. Even in years, like 2012, where the PGAS saw considerable melt, lost ice was resupplied from the north. If this northward drift of PGAS ice continues, it would require resupply from the south, but Belcher Channel and the Maclean Strait are likely to melt out (if they haven't already; they have been under cloud since July 29th), or nearly so; there is no ice there to resupply a depleted PGAS.

I'm not convinced that these regions will melt entirely. There's a lot of ice left in the northern CAA, just in terms of area, and pushing all the way to zero is costly in terms of energy. Weather will out, of course. But to some extent it doesn't matter. If the pack ice is reduced to kilometer-scale rubble, it might technically be considered "multi-year" ice, but in reality it will be badly compromised material that will not behave like true MYI should. Rather, it paints a picture of the total collapse of the traditional "cold pole" of the CAA and its associated ice stores.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5302 on: August 06, 2019, 05:47:33 PM »
I know it's irrelevant to the larger picture, but I keep checking the hudson out on the ice maps, just to see if those last bits are still holding on. Should be down to their last few days now, though...

It should be gone by now (99.99999%) satellite based data show a few pixels left as per yesterday while others still show a significant reminder which i suspect are artifacts like those in other places.

Some data shows a gain of 1 in Okhotsk, which is why only sat images can be trusted 99.9%

Also watch here, data from yesterday before midnight UTC:

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/data/SIC/201908/GW1AM2_20190806B_IC0300_NP.png

you can make it huge by clicking on it to have a perfect view.

Unfortunately RAMMB NatColor didn't open for me today, hence the linked is all i have for today, will post a sat image once available  again with a cloud filter.

ColdMiser123

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5303 on: August 06, 2019, 05:51:18 PM »
-166K on the NSIDC daily extent numbers. Losses like that going forward will still keep 2019 competitive with 2012.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5304 on: August 06, 2019, 05:51:27 PM »
Just a short post from a 2019 lurker who keeps on reading this forum on a daily base: I doubt that 2019 will be a catastrophic event. But it's the year that will turn 2012 into the new normal, a position that until now was held by 2007.

Therefore 2019 stays in line with the development of the artic melt of the last one or two decades: A continuous degradation of the ice. After 2012 we've seen new records in winter extent and volume minima, so there have been a couple of recent years that already continued this trend. Those who in 2013 and 2014 screamed "recovery!" have fallen silent.

Which year will be the new 2007/2012? The next turning point in a tragic story? We'll see. While 2019 is pawning the way.
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Ossifrage

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5305 on: August 06, 2019, 05:58:32 PM »
It should be gone by now (99.99999%) satellite based data show a few pixels left as per yesterday while others still show a significant reminder which i suspect are artifacts like those in other places.

WorldView definitely shows a tiny, tiny bit of ice in the Hudson, just northwest of James Bay, at about 55N. I assume this is the dying remains of some actual MYI floe that made its way south through the CAA to die there. There ... won't be many more of those in future, I don't think,

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5306 on: August 06, 2019, 06:03:58 PM »
It should be gone by now (99.99999%) satellite based data show a few pixels left as per yesterday while others still show a significant reminder which i suspect are artifacts like those in other places.

WorldView definitely shows a tiny, tiny bit of ice in the Hudson, just northwest of James Bay, at about 55N. I assume this is the dying remains of some actual MYI floe that made its way south through the CAA to die there. There ... won't be many more of those in future, I don't think,

Thanks for the heads up, that's the few pixels i meant, good to know the exact location.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5307 on: August 06, 2019, 06:12:56 PM »
.. a few pixels ? .. it's @ 400km x 70km .. as of o3.08 .. the best recent day for viewing . b.c.

 ps .. Uniquorn posted a view of Hudson's ice earlier .. probably still some there in 10 days ..

and still plenty of ice in Foxe basin as of 05.08 ..
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 06:22:17 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5308 on: August 06, 2019, 06:26:44 PM »
Just a short post from a 2019 lurker who keeps on reading this forum on a daily base: I doubt that 2019 will be a catastrophic event. But it's the year that will turn 2012 into the new normal, a position that until now was held by 2007.

Therefore 2019 stays in line with the development of the artic melt of the last one or two decades: A continuous degradation of the ice. After 2012 we've seen new records in winter extent and volume minima, so there have been a couple of recent years that already continued this trend. Those who in 2013 and 2014 screamed "recovery!" have fallen silent.

Which year will be the new 2007/2012? The next turning point in a tragic story? We'll see. While 2019 is pawning the way.

Be Cause's signature " 2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019..."

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5309 on: August 06, 2019, 06:48:30 PM »
Flashing of part of laptev sea ice!
That Remaining Laptev sea ice is gonna get pounded in the coming days if the forecast doesn't change. And there's heat entering the ESS! So I guess that the ice in the ESS isn't gonna last must longer? I'm actually surprised it lasted this long. I thought it would have been gone days ago, but I guess ocean temps were too low for a fast melt.

This is how I find and look at the ice edges now.
https://go.nasa.gov/2ORWryq
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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5310 on: August 06, 2019, 06:58:28 PM »
Hi Freegrass .. that anomaly map has been considered unreliable for years .. the absurdly hot spot by Svalbard is not really so warm .. and this year it is warm in Laptev .. post 5275 shows a much more likely anomaly map .. check out how different they are .. b.c.

 ps .. badly in need of some free grass .. :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5311 on: August 06, 2019, 07:02:12 PM »
and still plenty of ice in Foxe basin as of 05.08 ..
foxe basin yesterday https://go.nasa.gov/33inkPu

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5312 on: August 06, 2019, 07:13:13 PM »
.. a few pixels ? .. it's @ 400km x 70km .. as of o3.08 .. the best recent day for viewing . b.c.

 ps .. Uniquorn posted a view of Hudson's ice earlier .. probably still some there in 10 days ..

and still plenty of ice in Foxe basin as of 05.08 ..

So what, my source is from yesterday 5th not third and my source shows ice on the 3rd as well and a bit less on the 4th.

Doesn't make much sense to go back and forth here, different sources, different results and on different days anyways, let's wait for the next photography ;)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5313 on: August 06, 2019, 07:23:27 PM »
Hi Freegrass .. that anomaly map has been considered unreliable for years .. the absurdly hot spot by Svalbard is not really so warm .. and this year it is warm in Laptev .. post 5275 shows a much more likely anomaly map .. check out how different they are .. b.c.

 ps .. badly in need of some free grass .. :)
Thanks for that information! I didn't know it wasn't reliable. I've been wondering about those hot spots for years. There used to be 2, right? I thought they had to do with the slow down of the Gulf Stream, but you say it's a measurement error? How can an error be so persistent?

What effect does the slowdown of the Gulf Stream have on the melting of the ice? Because that means less hot water in the arctic, right? Or does that get balanced out with a warmer atmosphere?

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« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 07:41:40 PM by Freegrass »
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5314 on: August 06, 2019, 07:29:48 PM »
I've been wondering about those hot spots for years. There used to be 2, right?
Thread about it here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.msg134595.html#msg134595
Generally though, nullschool SST's are a reasonable guide. It's only a model.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5315 on: August 06, 2019, 08:11:11 PM »
https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/files/2019/01/SeaIceExtent_zscore_NSIDC_DailyMesh.png  updated monthly heat in the Arctic .. July comes in 3rd ..
  sorry .. clicking does not bring you to the right image .. perhaps someone more savvy can bring the real info .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Milwen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5316 on: August 06, 2019, 08:28:06 PM »
What the f* is this big piece of floating ice in Fram? Or is it? It wasnt there yesterday in world view. It looks like ice.


Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5317 on: August 06, 2019, 08:31:27 PM »
What the f* is this big piece of floating ice in Fram? Or is it? It wasnt there yesterday in world view. It looks like ice.
Clouds mostly IMHO

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5318 on: August 06, 2019, 08:57:19 PM »
https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/files/2019/01/SeaIceExtent_zscore_NSIDC_DailyMesh.png  updated monthly heat in the Arctic .. July comes in 3rd ..
  sorry .. clicking does not bring you to the right image .. perhaps someone more savvy can bring the real info .. b.c.

Is that what you meant, if not, sorry while no damage is done in that case;)

https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 09:06:10 PM by philopek »

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5319 on: August 06, 2019, 09:01:04 PM »
7 days of 850 mpa temperature anomaly forecast from the ECMWF, nicely shows the coming heat wave over the Asian side. A pesky vortex wants to stay over Beaufort and saves the Arctic from a landslide of heat.
But the CAA will probably stay warm or even worsen.
From tropicaltidbits (12Z update), color bars over there.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 09:08:41 PM by sailor »
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5320 on: August 06, 2019, 09:03:20 PM »
The latest ECMWF looks like the next worst thing to the GAC for sea ice - massive warm air advection and southerly winds from central Asia expanding the Laptev bite and pushing ice out of the Fram strait or into the Barents sea. On the other side there's strong warm air advection into the central CAA and storminess in the Beaufort sea. The next five to ten days or so look very bad for the ice. Obviously, beyond 5 days the forecast is not reliable but it continues the pattern of WAA and subsidence over Greenland and the pole. Persistence makes the 5 to 10 day forecast more likely to verify. Click image to see 10 day forecast loop.

I'm posting the full 240 hour forecast because it would be the high pressure heat dome situation that would be as nearly as bad for the ice as the GAC. It is outrageous - subtropical Pacific heat exported into the Arctic ocean basin.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 09:18:30 PM by FishOutofWater »

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5321 on: August 06, 2019, 09:07:30 PM »

 ... Is that what you meant, if not, sorry while no damage done ;)

https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/
[/quote]

 it's the one at the bottom .. cheers again P. .. b.c.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 09:14:09 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5322 on: August 06, 2019, 09:10:47 PM »

Is that what you meant, if not, sorry while no damage done ;)

https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

 it's the one at the bottom .. cheers again P. .. b.c.
[/quote]

Here we go ;)

Darvince

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5323 on: August 06, 2019, 10:00:55 PM »
What the f* is this big piece of floating ice in Fram? Or is it? It wasnt there yesterday in world view. It looks like ice.
It looks to me like an unusually large, thick, and coherent low cloud, maybe even fog?

Renerpho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5324 on: August 06, 2019, 10:06:15 PM »
What the f* is this big piece of floating ice in Fram? Or is it? It wasnt there yesterday in world view. It looks like ice.
It looks to me like an unusually large, thick, and coherent low cloud, maybe even fog?
You can tell it's a cloud by switching between base layers in Worldview.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-139411.73443583935,-1293340.5327820804,1433452.2655641607,-575516.5327820804&p=arctic
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5325 on: August 06, 2019, 10:16:18 PM »
You can tell it's a cloud by switching between base layers in Worldview.

Aqua bands 7-2-1 (my preference -- blue ice) or Suomi bands M3-I3-M11 (red ice) are good for that purpose: https://go.nasa.gov/2OJYtAN

Renerpho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5326 on: August 06, 2019, 10:24:13 PM »
You can tell it's a cloud by switching between base layers in Worldview.

Aqua bands 7-2-1 (my preference -- blue ice) or Suomi bands M3-I3-M11 (red ice) are good for that purpose: https://go.nasa.gov/2OJYtAN

Bookmarked. Thanks!  :)
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5327 on: August 06, 2019, 11:17:08 PM »
7-2-1 Shows clouds clearly and meltponds show up as a deep blue. Today we can see that the sea ice north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island is covered with deep blue melt ponds and the temperatures are likely unseasonably warm for so late in the melt season. Active strong surface melting continues between the CAA, Greenland and the pole. The deep blue on 7-2-1 is indicative of that active melting.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5328 on: August 06, 2019, 11:24:36 PM »
The latest ECMWF looks like the next worst thing to the GAC for sea ice - massive warm air advection and southerly winds from central Asia expanding the Laptev bite and pushing ice out of the Fram strait or into the Barents sea. On the other side there's strong warm air advection into the central CAA and storminess in the Beaufort sea. The next five to ten days or so look very bad for the ice. Obviously, beyond 5 days the forecast is not reliable but it continues the pattern of WAA and subsidence over Greenland and the pole. Persistence makes the 5 to 10 day forecast more likely to verify.
Indeed, the weather brings a triple whammy, warm winds pushing Laptev and ESS, a persistent storm over Beaufort and more warmth over CAA. I wouldn’t be surprised area keeps pace with 2012, extent following.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5329 on: August 06, 2019, 11:30:04 PM »
<>Active strong surface melting continues between the CAA, Greenland and the pole.<>
A closer look at the lincoln sea. Melt combined with warm winds.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5330 on: August 06, 2019, 11:57:36 PM »
Overview of arctic, unihamburg amsr2-uhh, jul1-aug5, small gif (<3MB)

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5331 on: August 07, 2019, 12:20:12 AM »
Historically, PGAS ice moves south

Thank you for your extremely informative post. Is this the first time we've observed the garlic press to flow in reverse? Yet another assumption about how the system will evolve to zero ice may be on its way to being proven false.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5332 on: August 07, 2019, 12:37:59 AM »
The latest ECMWF looks like the next worst thing to the GAC for sea ice

Watching closely. The experiment continues... Thanks for explaining this. Undoubtedly like many others, I'm not yet able to tell much from the climate model outputs other than obvious events like cyclones.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5333 on: August 07, 2019, 12:45:40 AM »
that anomaly map has been considered unreliable for years
Thanks for that information!

Can also just use the actual temps rather than anomalies. A big problem with SST anomalies around sea ice is that as soon as a location melts out relative to the baseline, the anomaly skyrockets. But that's not telling you much, other than that it melted, which we already know from other sources.

Yes, I've read the Nullschool thread, so I understand the problem a little better now. But not fully...

Quote
as a location melts out relative to the baseline, the anomaly skyrockets.
Isn't the baseline calculated on a long term basis?

Let's continue this here.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.msg134595.html#msg134595
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pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5334 on: August 07, 2019, 01:21:21 AM »
I just can't predict at all how this season will end and will wait to see what comes to fruition with the weather. From what I've seen, it appears as though the massive 'crack' above Greenland has been compressed into the coast more over the last few days, but until we get clear satellite imagery I will wait to say more.

I read up on the GAC last night and never realized its pressure was 962mb, which is utterly insane. That's enough to sustain a category 3 hurricane!! That said, I think with the potential for some smaller cyclones or at least strong weather systems to move through the arctic between now and roughly 9/15 I see this year with a few surprises left.
pls!

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5335 on: August 07, 2019, 01:34:40 AM »
I just can't predict at all how this season will end and will wait to see what comes to fruition with the weather. From what I've seen, it appears as though the massive 'crack' above Greenland has been compressed into the coast more over the last few days, but until we get clear satellite imagery I will wait to say more.

Me too. The arctic is keeping things interesting! :) But I don't think the crack is closing, at least not as of the 5th... have a look at uniquorn's AMSR2 gif, just above.

Edit:
Quote
I read up on the GAC last night

Be sure to read these, if you haven't yet (Neven's blog, Aug. 5+, 2012):
https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/cyclone-warning.html
https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/arctic-storm-part-1.html
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 02:09:50 AM by petm »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5336 on: August 07, 2019, 01:56:03 AM »
caa/cab crack is largely wind driven. Will probably close a bit for a couple of days then it looks like opening up again. Regardless, the thick fast ice haven may well be history now.

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5337 on: August 07, 2019, 02:05:31 AM »
I just can't predict at all how this season will end and will wait to see what comes to fruition with the weather. From what I've seen, it appears as though the massive 'crack' above Greenland has been compressed into the coast more over the last few days, but until we get clear satellite imagery I will wait to say more.

Me too. The arctic is keeping things interesting! :) But I don't think the crack is closing, at least not as of the 5th... have a look at uniquorn's AMSR2 gif, just above.

Yes, it certainly does! It's somewhat hard to tell on the AMSR2 gif, but the pack sure is mobile right now. Either way, I feel like a lot is occurring under those clouds right now...
pls!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5338 on: August 07, 2019, 02:35:56 AM »
How reliable is this ice map? If this is right, that would mean that a whole lot of ice could melt out from Laptev to svalbard because it's only around 50 cm thick. A little wind, high temp, and poof?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5339 on: August 07, 2019, 04:03:38 AM »
A huge smoke plume over the Laptev sea yesterday. The coming massive heatwave there will likely drive more large smoke clouds over the basin , especially if fires intensify with the heat. Some are very far north, within 100km of the Laptev sea coast`.

The ice piled up against Severnaya Zemlya is in danger of being cut off from the pack, as the Laptev bite grows and ice is pushed once more towards the Barents Sea. The ice to its east is already reduced to ribbons as can be seen in the image

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5340 on: August 07, 2019, 04:21:37 AM »
Will this be rain, or snow? I'm guessing rain with those warm temperatures? And I guess rain is the worst for the ice? Because it melts the top of the ice, and heats up the top layer of the water, causing bottom melt?

I can't remember much talk on this thread about rain. Why is that? It's important, no?
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5341 on: August 07, 2019, 05:33:38 AM »
The latest ECMWF looks like the next worst thing to the GAC for sea ice - massive warm air advection and southerly winds from central Asia expanding the Laptev bite

How reliable is this ice map? If this is right, that would mean that a whole lot of ice could melt out from Laptev to svalbard

Bremen is showing continued concentration declines again today in this area, worse than ever, now down to roughly 50% concentration over a large area. With the amount of time left in the melt season, this is a strong signal that a large area here may indeed melt out.

If it melts out fast enough, the arm of high concentration (and thickness?) ice near Severnaya Zemlya could also be in jeopardy.

3-day median (left) vs. original (right)

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5342 on: August 07, 2019, 05:40:55 AM »
I think the Severnaya arm will go poof. It will happen by 9/1 and will be one of the last regions to melt. As the buffer ice in Laptev goes the remaining ice will follow, it isn't very thick anymore. There is some thicker ice near Franz Josef Land according to HYCOM, this may (I think probably will) survive the melt season.

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5343 on: August 07, 2019, 05:59:57 AM »
The AMSR2 image for today is probably one we just have to throw on the scrap heap. Looks like part of the jet stream is caught in that CAA system. That also means we're probably going to see some big changes when these systems stop distorting the data.

One of the useful things you can glean, is the Laptev, Northern CAB is getting drilled, dispersing + compacting to the ESS. CAB export still looks to be strong. Chunks being pushed into the Barents.

It also looks like the big chunk of ice in the Lincoln from yesterday was just an artefact. The ice concentration around this area is pretty surprising. Might be worth paying attention to N. Greenland in general.

I wish we could see the CAA. That just means more surprises when it's visible though.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5344 on: August 07, 2019, 07:11:02 AM »
The situation in the Prince Gustav Adolf Sea is uglier than it looks on Worldview, which already isn't good
<snip>
Third, comparing the August 4th and August 5th images, it is clear that there is northward drift in the PGAS.
<snip>
Rather, it paints a picture of the total collapse of the traditional "cold pole" of the CAA and its associated ice stores.
Great post, I'd also noticed the northern movement but didn't know if it was normal - I guess the steady southerlies have been pushing the ice north.
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BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5345 on: August 07, 2019, 09:38:05 AM »
Area and extent continue to drop steadily, and open water is appearing all over the CAB, even though the weather has been nothing special over the past week or so. The forecast only turns nasty beyond D5, but the weak state of the ice and high SSTs means that we can expect above-average declines to continue.

Here's a comparison  between 29 July and 7 August, looking at an area located around 85N, 165-180W:

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5346 on: August 07, 2019, 12:46:28 PM »
There is some thicker ice near Franz Josef Land according to HYCOM, this may (I think probably will) survive the melt season.
If the wind pattern prediction doesn't change, a lot of that thicker ice west of Franz Josef Land will be blown into the Barents sea. Fram export should also pick up again.
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5347 on: August 07, 2019, 02:30:14 PM »
I can't remember much talk on this thread about rain. Why is that? It's important, no?

Because it didn't used to be much of an issue.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5348 on: August 07, 2019, 03:20:23 PM »
Thank you for your extremely informative post. Is this the first time we've observed the garlic press to flow in reverse? Yet another assumption about how the system will evolve to zero ice may be on its way to being proven false.

No. Or, rather, almost certainly not; it's difficult to precisely determine hydrodynamics when the area is (was) frozen solid. But in general, wind effects are immensely more powerful than most people here probably suspect, and so I'd put good money down that the PGAS has moved ice north many times in the past in response to local wind conditions. However, there's not usually open water to the north, which is the big shift in the system this time around.

caa/cab crack is largely wind driven. Will probably close a bit for a couple of days then it looks like opening up again. Regardless, the thick fast ice haven may well be history now.

I suspect the Crack's formation was almost entirely wind-based. Smaller cracks -- with a lowercase c -- look dramatic but generally haven't meant much. This year's behavior is very different. Normally, a change in the wind environment allows such cracks to reclose with little disruption to the pack ice field. But that's not the case this year for two reasons. First, the CAB ice was mobile enough that the wind provided a considerable torque to the pack; even if the ice gap closes, CAB ice has been transported well away from its "rest" position at the start of the season. And second, the Crack was open so wide, for so long, that insolation and wave action effects have done their thing along the boundary. It's different from a pack ice crack that opens, then closes; the state of ice in the CAB north of the Sverdrup Islands is no better than the state of ice in marginal bodies 5 degrees further south.

The CAA is slower to melt out this year than, say, 2012 or 2016, but that doesn't make it healthy. The only internal CAA water that has seemed robustly frozen has been the Wilkins Strait. But honestly, that's been under cloud for awhile now, and I don't expect there to be much left when we finally get a sunny day over there. I don't think we're going to see M'Clure ice-free this year, but that doesn't mean the state of affairs is at all good.

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5349 on: August 07, 2019, 03:58:29 PM »
I suspect the Crack's formation was almost entirely wind-based. Smaller cracks -- with a lowercase c -- look dramatic but generally haven't meant much. This year's behavior is very different. Normally, a change in the wind environment allows such cracks to reclose with little disruption to the pack ice field. But that's not the case this year for two reasons. First, the CAB ice was mobile enough that the wind provided a considerable torque to the pack; even if the ice gap closes, CAB ice has been transported well away from its "rest" position at the start of the season. And second, the Crack was open so wide, for so long, that insolation and wave action effects have done their thing along the boundary.

Occam's best explains this: Winds have been to the north from the north of Greenland or west<>east across the top of Greenland since the crack opened.