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grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5350 on: August 07, 2019, 04:06:56 PM »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5351 on: August 07, 2019, 05:15:09 PM »
NSIDC posted their July summary: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/08/europe-heat-wave-moves-north/

Nice SST map, among other useful information.



Quote
Figure 4b. This map of the Arctic Ocean shows sea surface temperature in degrees Celsius for July 31, 2019. Data are from the University of Washington Polar Science Center UpTempO buoys and satellite-derived values from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).

Steven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5352 on: August 07, 2019, 07:14:53 PM »
3-day median (left) vs. original (right)



The image on the left seems to be the 3-day minimum, rather than median?
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 07:21:59 PM by Steven »

helorime

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5353 on: August 07, 2019, 07:49:52 PM »
We are well on the way of surpassing previous years minimums into the 2000's already with a month of melting left to go.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5354 on: August 07, 2019, 09:13:10 PM »
The EC run ends in such surrealist way that must not be commented about it here, especially now that beyond day 5 is uncertain. perhaps in the meaningless thread somebody is not afraid to comment.
In any case what FooW explained yesterday continues valid for the next week or so.

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5355 on: August 07, 2019, 10:20:39 PM »
The Barrow cam is STILL down...what a bummer. It was down for about a week, worked for one day, then went down again. I suspect it's due to high winds/weather as that took it down prior. So much of the pack, sans the core, looks ready to melt out...even if this season doesn't break any records I think that the new thin ice along Greenland's northern coast may expand.
pls!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5356 on: August 07, 2019, 10:21:13 PM »
Looking at the Parry channel there would seem to be a connection between ice break up over the shallowest part, south of Resolute, and ice break up at the mouth of the Mclure Strait. That probably doesn't surprise anyone, but it also looks like, this year, there may be a connection to sudden melt over beaufort deep water west of Mclure Strait. One possible reason is that a larger volume of water has been drawn into the Mclure Strait, causing upwelling close to the shelf further west. Or it could just be coincidence.
whoi itp103 passed by the Mclure Strait recently and the microcats detected a significant temperature spike, but no increase in salinity, perhaps due to meltwater from above.
itp103 location on day560    -129.8953  76.6136, west of Mclure Strait

gmrt bathymetry with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 75% transparent. Open water, normally dark blue, set to fully transparent, parry channel area, jul1-aug6.
gmrt bathy for reference
whoi itp103 microcats, mounted at 6m and 7m depth
whoi itp103 drift track

edit: unfortunately no scale with my favourite bathymetry map but point and click depths are available at their veiwer here https://www.gmrt.org/GMRTMapTool/np/  blue is deep, beige/grey is shallow. Heavy contrast here to bring out the contours.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 10:52:44 PM by uniquorn »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5357 on: August 07, 2019, 10:47:13 PM »
If the 12z EURO is correct I would think a minimum of under 2M KM^2 for both area and extent becomes very possible.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5358 on: August 07, 2019, 10:49:16 PM »
If the 12z EURO is correct I would think a minimum of under 2M KM^2 for both area and extent becomes very possible.

I don't think I'd personally go that low, but it does keep this year in contention by blasting off the remaining ESS and Laptev ice and pushing the bite into the CAB proper.

arctic-watcher

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5359 on: August 07, 2019, 11:10:49 PM »
The EC run ends in such surrealist way that must not be commented about it here, especially now that beyond day 5 is uncertain. perhaps in the meaningless thread somebody is not afraid to comment.
In any case what FooW explained yesterday continues valid for the next week or so.
 

Yes, and what a contrast with GFS in the 5 to 10 day range.  Huge disparity in forecasts. 

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5360 on: August 07, 2019, 11:23:05 PM »
Looking at the Parry channel there would seem to be a connection between ice break up over the shallowest part, south of Resolute, and ice break up at the mouth of the Mclure Strait. That probably doesn't surprise anyone, but it also looks like, this year, there may be a connection to sudden melt over beaufort deep water west of Mclure Strait. One possible reason is that a larger volume of water has been drawn into the Mclure Strait, causing upwelling close to the shelf further west. Or it could just be coincidence.
whoi itp103 passed by the Mclure Strait recently and the microcats detected a significant temperature spike, but no increase in salinity, perhaps due to meltwater from above.
itp103 location on day560    -129.8953  76.6136, west of Mclure Strait
[/size]
All this is really fascinating. But I have a question: is the event you explain connected with the moment that the ice in the channel seems to dislodge and become mobile? Which, by the way, seems the same moment a huge block of ice disappears from the strait mouth (this one probably taken by the weather).
Great work, Uniquorn
On the thin ice of modern life

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5361 on: August 07, 2019, 11:42:22 PM »
All this is really fascinating. But I have a question: is the event you explain connected with the moment that the ice in the channel seems to dislodge and become mobile? Which, by the way, seems the same moment a huge block of ice disappears from the strait mouth (this one probably taken by the weather).
Full moon on jul16 when the large floe lifted off so possibly tide related, perhaps the same near resolute. Low concentration ice over beaufort deep water is visible ~11 days later so maybe takes time for the current to build up. This is theory based on visual data so could just be coincidence.
It's my alternative to predicting the future ;)

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5362 on: August 08, 2019, 12:49:27 AM »
Bit of a peek through only thin cloud over part of the Beaufort today. Some big holes have developed.

https://go.nasa.gov/2OIJyqt

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5363 on: August 08, 2019, 01:06:39 AM »
The ECMWF has been consistent for several days in developing the converging Asian, Atlantic and Pacific ridges aloft. It has handled these blocking situations better than the GFS in the past, but honestly I don't have a clue about this version of the GFS yet.

The latest 240 hour Euro prog has a full on subtropical summer airmass thickness over the Bering strait. Heights of 594mb are pretty typical over the Colorado plateau in midsummer. They don't belong over the Bering sea.

For the past year we have seen amazingly intense blocks over the Bering strait but if this one verifies it will be the block that gives Santa Claus a Hawaiian vacation at the pole. It is one of the most outrageous forecast outputs I have ever seen.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5364 on: August 08, 2019, 01:12:05 AM »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5365 on: August 08, 2019, 01:26:01 AM »
The image on the left seems to be the 3-day minimum, rather than median?

Oof, you're right. My index calculation was only working for 5-day median. Attached is the actual 3-day median, which is pretty useless it turns out due to clouds.

Edit: Continued conversation here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1259.msg219998#msg219998

Edit 2: Hope that high does materialize, even if only to let us see what the true state of the ice is...   ;D
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 02:03:23 AM by petm »

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5366 on: August 08, 2019, 01:59:16 AM »
FooW you may be interested to know ..
   I was running the ECM . GFS and old GFS to compare .. new gfs is the odd one out . old gfs is not quite as extreme heat (or cold) wise .. as ECM , but finishes with a warm high 1030+ straddling the Arctic from Beaufort to Fram .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5367 on: August 08, 2019, 02:41:47 AM »
The melt season thread started on March !st ( thanks Jim ) so I took the placings for the last 5 months for each of the more recent years from Zack Labe's table available above post 5322 or go visit Zack's world .
.. With a 5th , 2x3rds , a 2nd and a 1st .. 2019 is the runaway winner by this measure .   so a little table ..

                   1st . 2019   .. tally 14
                   2      2016             31
                   3      2010             34
                   4=    2012             39
                   4=    2011             39
                   6      2015             49
                   7      2007             51
                   8      2008             52
                   9      1990             70  !
                   10    2013             77

 as the season enters it's last month the heat continues . 2019 looks unlikely to lose it's lead by this measure soon . notice the years 2013,17 and 18 are missing from the top 10 .  b.c.
                   
                   
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5368 on: August 08, 2019, 03:08:42 AM »
I wonder that the firewood dispersed huge amount of black carbon(aerosol) will eventually transport to the Arctic atmosphere in the end. Those black carbon will absorb more heat in the atmosphere or ocean due to precipitation resulting in warming the upper troposphere, weakening the formation of polar vortex. The graph present recent PM10 distribution maybe in the surface layer. Those black carbon tend to deposit in the laptev sea. I wonder if any graph could show the particulate distribution at 500hpa which is more meaningful in absorbing solar energy.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5369 on: August 08, 2019, 05:00:46 AM »
Lowest on record for this time of year. Noteworthy, but still within range of losing the record.
But, ignore 2012, switch it off, this would be major international mainstream news.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5370 on: August 08, 2019, 05:46:29 AM »
7 August is another date where Neven has a year-to-year comparison of the U. Bremen AMSR2 sea ice concentration maps.

See figure below. The latest 2019 map is bottom right. It can be compared by eye to some of the previous worst years for sea ice minimum extent. Other recent years are available for comparison on the web page.

2019 looks worse to me on this date than any of the previous years other than 2012 and 2007. (2016 caught up later in the month - see the web page.) Even so, it's still to be determined how much of this year's lowered-concentration regions -- particularly in the Laptev sector, and north of the CAA -- will melt out by the minimum.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5371 on: August 08, 2019, 05:55:20 AM »
Seriously ugly forecast today on EC/Windy. From D2 a continuous stream of heat from central asia over the Laptev Sea, and the most of the basin again progressively cleared of below below freezing air to 800hPa and above. Surely for the last time this season? Dewpoints are above freezing well over the ice. And wind, did I mention the wind - tight isobars between a high over ESS and lows over the Kara and Beaufort will push ice to open water, and heat on the fragile Eurasian side of the CAB

It starts with a few days of 20-30knot winds between Svalbard and FJI. Expect the front to advance in that direction -but into the teeth of warm SSTs. And the reserves are dwindling in the rear. Tears and cracks can be seen all the way to 87N yesterday on worldview, and a few troubling cracks very close to the pole in a rare gap in cloud. Dispersal and the warm advection may play havoc with that half of the pack

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5372 on: August 08, 2019, 06:00:52 AM »
7 August is another date where Neven has a year-to-year comparison of the U. Bremen AMSR2 sea ice concentration maps.

See figure below. The latest 2019 map is bottom right. It can be compared by eye to some of the previous worst years for sea ice minimum extent. Other recent years are available for comparison on the web page.

2019 looks worse to me on this date than any of the previous years other than 2012 and 2007. (2016 caught up later in the month - see the web page.) Even so, it's still to be determined how much of this year's lowered-concentration regions -- particularly in the Laptev sector, and north of the CAA -- will melt out by the minimum.

Keep in mind, most of that "thick" ice, if not all of it, along the CAA border, is an artefact (an error).

Might have something to do with part of the gulf stream being pulled into that system, cloud cover, not really sure, it happens sometimes with AMRS2 though.

The ice thickness there is probably at a lower level than it's been in any of those years. More pressure + heat over the CAA for a while too.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5373 on: August 08, 2019, 06:35:03 AM »
5-day median vs. original

AND

3-day minimum vs. original

Choose your poison.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5374 on: August 08, 2019, 07:57:21 AM »
5-day median vs. original

AND

3-day minimum vs. original

Choose your poison.

If that 3-day median is right AND the weather forecast is right then we are going to see an opening right to the Pole

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5375 on: August 08, 2019, 08:05:12 AM »
August 3-7.

2018.

Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5376 on: August 08, 2019, 08:57:03 AM »
It looks like the remaining lifetime of the floes in ESS and N Chukchi are more likely measured in days than in weeks...

Pavel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5377 on: August 08, 2019, 09:27:13 AM »
The CAB ice in the Laptev side looks weak. The next few days with strong winds and heat may cause more damage

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5378 on: August 08, 2019, 10:35:02 AM »
July data in. We are so f*cked!

MrGreeny

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5379 on: August 08, 2019, 01:09:43 PM »
July data in. We are so f*cked!

Ouch.

Coffee Drinker

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5380 on: August 08, 2019, 01:56:01 PM »
Would you mind briefly describing why we are fu**? I see those cold anomalies over north America? What does that mean for us?

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5381 on: August 08, 2019, 02:11:36 PM »
Would you mind briefly describing why we are fu**? I see those cold anomalies over north America? What does that mean for us?

He is speaking about the arctic I guess and that the anomaly setup is waccy. Which means that the jet stream will get screwy ... it sth to that extent

Glenn_Tamblyn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5382 on: August 08, 2019, 02:36:16 PM »
Would you mind briefly describing why we are fu**? I see those cold anomalies over north America? What does that mean for us?

Actually they are not even positive anomalies over most of the Arctic. The graph is actually showing how much warmer 2019 was just compared to 2012. 1-3 degrees warmer over most of the arctic compared to the previous minimum year,

Glenn_Tamblyn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5383 on: August 08, 2019, 02:44:51 PM »
And now it is down to just two contenders. They are neck and neck in the race to September. Place yurrrrr bets folks, GAC vs extensive internal ice loss.


F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5384 on: August 08, 2019, 02:59:39 PM »
A short 20-second video of a waterfall of melt water near the northern tip of Greenland - in this twitter post. Text in the video says "July 2019". I wonder what is happening in those parts now after days of open sky and high air temperatures...

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5385 on: August 08, 2019, 06:11:58 PM »
Wow. Sea Level Pressure all over the Arctic is crazy. https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#mslp

2m Temp Anomalies extreme all around the basin.

500geopot height: 560-570 formed over the CAA, and a monster 590+ sitting just south of Alaska/Bering in the Pacific. Lawd have mercy.

Is something up with the oscillation? Looks like it's getting a bit confused. Almost looks like a negative oscillation is trying to come through the front door, or setting up dipole behavior? I'm not sure. It doesn't look great though.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 07:02:04 PM by Wildcatter »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5386 on: August 08, 2019, 06:42:57 PM »
That cyclone is still spinning btw.
Refugees welcome

Milwen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5387 on: August 08, 2019, 09:00:43 PM »
HYCOM Ice Thickness model: August 8 - August 15


bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5388 on: August 08, 2019, 09:01:28 PM »
Would you mind briefly describing why we are fu**? I see those cold anomalies over north America? What does that mean for us?
We are double-f*cked because as the Arctic is collapsing, the cold is now increasingly becoming focused in the grain-growing regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The crop situation this year across much of the Midwest is now dire. Yields will be double-digit %s below normal.

If this repeats next year there will be major food shortages for much of the developing world, IMO, as well as SEVERE winter and spring cold outbreaks in the developed world, particularly in the areas that have consistently trended colder since 2012.

In terms of raw data comparisons (2019 vs the 1981-2010 mean), the Arctic is still glowingly positive, although the - numbers are reduced in scope a bit across the continents. Nevertheless, I think the shift since 2012 highlights a new normal(ish?) pattern we are now spiraling towards, and it is very very BAD.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5389 on: August 08, 2019, 09:03:20 PM »
Subsidence and high pressure that focused on the "ridiculously resistant ridge" in the northeastern Pacific ocean has moved north to Alaska and the Arctic over the past year. The ECMWF continues to forecast heat pumping out of the Pacific into the Arctic. The latest model run shows typhoon heat and water vapor being pulled into troughs that wave break into the Arctic, creating a massive Arctic heat anomaly. It's nuts.

This has been the most persistent ridging/subsidence pattern of any Arctic summer in the Climate data center set of stratospheric "paint drip" maps that I have reviewed. The high pressure and high geopotential heights over the Arctic have been relentless.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5390 on: August 08, 2019, 09:11:49 PM »

Is something up with the oscillation? Looks like it's getting a bit confused. Almost looks like a negative oscillation is trying to come through the front door, or setting up dipole behavior? I'm not sure. It doesn't look great though.

I think we may be seeing the kind of chaotic behavior that occurs when a system is transitioning to a new state. There's really no telling what might happen, and all our past history will not be useful if that's what this is.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5391 on: August 08, 2019, 09:20:45 PM »
Finland has been experiencing record cold the last day or two. I caught this tweet with an interesting chart that shows where the cold air is coming from. If this cold air is moving from the Arctic down over Finland, doesn't that mean warm air could be flowing in from elsewhere to replace it?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5392 on: August 08, 2019, 10:13:06 PM »
Finland has been experiencing record cold the last day or two. I caught this tweet with an interesting chart that shows where the cold air is coming from. If this cold air is moving from the Arctic down over Finland, doesn't that mean warm air could be flowing in from elsewhere to replace it?
Not just Finland. Large parts of Russia are breaking minimum temperature records last week or so. For example, the capital - Moscow - had 4th August top temperature of 13.5C, lowest recorded during past 70 years. Saw reports of massive cold in Norwegia recently, too. Those are large parts - Scandinavia, Russia. And sure, whenever large mass of air leaves Arctic - similarly large amount must enter Arctic elsewhere. Can't be vacuum left behind, eh.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5393 on: August 08, 2019, 10:16:22 PM »
Quote
'cold air has been flowing persistently to northern Finland from the Arctic ocean'
and doing its best to take the ice with it. Not that it gets far into atlantic waters.

Today looking at mercator 0m sea temperature with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 60% transparency this time to allow some of the mercator model's higher coastal SST's beneath the ice to show through. I didn't notice that before doing this overlay. That would explain the rapid melt of ESS/Laptev fast ice. amsr2 0% concentration (open water) has been set to fully transparent, jun1-aug7.
Attention is unsurprisingly mostly on the Chukchi/Beaufort and Laptev at the moment but note also the heat building up to the east of the Fram Strait.
The CAB beginning to resemble a ripe stilton
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 10:24:14 PM by uniquorn »

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5394 on: August 08, 2019, 10:41:27 PM »
Finland has been experiencing record cold the last day or two. I caught this tweet with an interesting chart that shows where the cold air is coming from. If this cold air is moving from the Arctic down over Finland, doesn't that mean warm air could be flowing in from elsewhere to replace it?
Not just Finland. Large parts of Russia are breaking minimum temperature records last week or so. For example, the capital - Moscow - had 4th August top temperature of 13.5C, lowest recorded during past 70 years. Saw reports of massive cold in Norwegia recently, too. Those are large parts - Scandinavia, Russia. And sure, whenever large mass of air leaves Arctic - similarly large amount must enter Arctic elsewhere. Can't be vacuum left behind, eh.
This makes me a lot more worried about the forecast of lots of heat moving in from the opposite side.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5395 on: August 08, 2019, 10:59:20 PM »
edit: took it to 'stupid questions' thread
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 11:40:31 PM by uniquorn »

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5396 on: August 08, 2019, 11:54:32 PM »
Quote
'cold air has been flowing persistently to northern Finland from the Arctic ocean'
and doing its best to take the ice with it. Not that it gets far into atlantic waters.

Today looking at mercator 0m sea temperature with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 60% transparency this time to allow some of the mercator model's higher coastal SST's beneath the ice to show through. I didn't notice that before doing this overlay. That would explain the rapid melt of ESS/Laptev fast ice. amsr2 0% concentration (open water) has been set to fully transparent, jun1-aug7.
Attention is unsurprisingly mostly on the Chukchi/Beaufort and Laptev at the moment but note also the heat building up to the east of the Fram Strait.
The CAB beginning to resemble a ripe stilton
That’s a great animation.
- The warn water from the Pacific directly melts some ice... but not as much as I thought. Or maybe I am missing some detail...
- The warmer SSTs at Laptev and ESS, don’t they come after the fast ice has melted almost completely?
- I don’t know how accurate Mercator is, but it shows some slightly warmer temperature at McClure Strait about mid-July. Not sure if that agrees with the buoy spikes you showed, or it’s just an artifact.

Edit: I have taken a Small fragment from your mp4, hope you don't mind, where a jet of warm water from Alaskan coast clearly rams against the pack and forces the ice to recede several miles, and this happens over deep water. So the direct effect is there, but difficult to quantify in total...
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 12:10:23 AM by sailor »
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5397 on: August 09, 2019, 12:03:30 AM »

I think we may be seeing the kind of chaotic behavior that occurs when a system is transitioning to a new state. There's really no telling what might happen, and all our past history will not be useful if that's what this is.

Just like a spinning top & how it transitions from stable to falling over. I've long felt that it's a great analogy.
The CAB beginning to resemble a ripe stilton

The last 2 or so frames of your animation is actually very concerning... Thanks for that? :-\

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5398 on: August 09, 2019, 12:20:53 AM »
- The warmer SSTs at Laptev and ESS, don’t they come after the fast ice has melted almost completely?
Maybe. The mercator images used are lower resolution than amsr2. Could be a thin strip of very high coastal temperatures rapidly widening.

Quote
- I don’t know how accurate Mercator is, but it shows some slightly warmer temperature at McClure Strait about mid-July. Not sure if that agrees with the buoy spikes you showed, or it’s just an artifact.

I'm pretty sure that itp103 is still moored to a floe so I'd expect temperatures to rise more gradually from surrounding open water as the ice above is still melting. The spike is steep and short lived so perhaps it's more likely to be caused by crossing a warm current.

edit: Nice gif. It works both ways though. Surface water away from the coast can't warm up until the ice has melted so there is usually a buffer zone of cooler water, except in the case of a really strong current like that one at the edge of the beaufort 'ocean' gyre (not to be confused with the defunct ice gyre)
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 12:31:34 AM by uniquorn »

Treform2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5399 on: August 09, 2019, 12:27:14 AM »
HYCOM Ice Thickness model: August 8 - August 15



I have been lurking since the forum began and was a regular contributor to the Ice Blog from close to its beginning. Thanks Neven. Not missed a season. The old wisdom from everyone back in the early days of the Blog was that even if the CAB were to melt out the thick Ice attached to the Canadian shores would remain for many years later. This graphic show that we were wrong. It has detached and is heading for the Beaufort Gyre . It likely means this area will be harder to melt out next season. Very interesting times.