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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5400 on: August 09, 2019, 12:29:09 AM »
HYCOM Ice Thickness model: August 8 - August 15



I have been lurking since the forum began and was a regular contributor to the Ice Blog from close to its beginning. Thanks Neven. Not missed a season. The old wisdom from everyone back in the early days of the Blog was that even if the CAB were to melt out the thick Ice attached to the Canadian shores would remain for many years later. This graphic show that we were wrong. It has detached and is heading for the Beaufort Gyre . It likely means this area will be harder to melt out next season. Very interesting times.

Not any more.. there is no more 4-5+m ice ...

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5401 on: August 09, 2019, 01:29:58 AM »
Today looking at mercator 0m sea temperature with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 60% transparency this time to allow some of the mercator model's higher coastal SST's beneath the ice to show through.

Fantastic animation. Looking at this, it's hard to see any impending slow-down, despite several days of slow area/extent numbers.

Large plumes of moisture forecast to enter the Arctic from Asia and the Pacific.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 02:24:22 AM by petm »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5402 on: August 09, 2019, 03:52:04 AM »
I have been lurking since the forum began and was a regular contributor to the Ice Blog from close to its beginning. Thanks Neven. Not missed a season. The old wisdom from everyone back in the early days of the Blog was that even if the CAB were to melt out the thick Ice attached to the Canadian shores would remain for many years later. This graphic show that we were wrong. It has detached and is heading for the Beaufort Gyre . It likely means this area will be harder to melt out next season. Very interesting times.

How wide is that 0.5 meter thick ice along the coast of the CAA? Does not look good.

Thick ice has always migrated to the Beaufort where it would age and thicken and this ice could delay melt next year but the freeze seasons over the Beaufort have been ridiculously warm of late. The thick ice is going to its graveyard.


Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5404 on: August 09, 2019, 06:09:58 AM »
The central core looks fairly solid on Jaxa, much more so than IUP.  There is now a very small amount of weak ice left in ESS and Chukchi, and suspect that this could be the reason why extent loss has slowed down in the last few days so that 2012 now has a definite lead.  Or it could be the cooler weather.  The forecast heatwave is quite brutal and will extend over a fair bit of ice in and near the Laptev, which while fairly solid in 2 dimensions (relative to other recent years this late in the melt season) is quite likely relatively thin.  Without the heatwave I would be confidently calling the chance of record over.  With it, not sure....

 
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5405 on: August 09, 2019, 07:09:44 AM »
It will probably stir all things up. f**

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5406 on: August 09, 2019, 08:26:10 AM »
It will probably stir all things up. f**
That's a serious low that's developing. And look at that heat!  ???
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AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5407 on: August 09, 2019, 09:13:06 AM »
Would that be the West Russian Low moving to the NP?
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Pavel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5408 on: August 09, 2019, 10:36:25 AM »
Well, the 1030 High near the 987 low dancing on the weak ice in the Laptev side. I think things may get even worse but it's already enough to bite the CAB

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5409 on: August 09, 2019, 10:42:28 AM »
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 11:30:51 AM by JayW »
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5410 on: August 09, 2019, 11:25:44 AM »
The central core looks fairly solid on Jaxa
Worldview aqua modis heavy contrast view of CAB/Laptev bite area today, similar to JayW above. Solid with a very large fairly :) (Laptev at top in this image) Still, only a few weeks to hold out.
click for default worldview comparison.

Mleary01

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5411 on: August 09, 2019, 01:06:14 PM »
Hello everybody, I've decided to join this forum after many years of daily lurking and reading! :)

That spine of ice which survived the 2018 melt sea looks to be alomst finally defeated this season. Not really an original observation, I just wanted to get my first post out  ;D

wili

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5412 on: August 09, 2019, 01:24:39 PM »
Welcome, Mleary01.

I have found those ruggedly persistent ice features rather fascinating for a while. Apparently it's a result of ridging--ice being pushed on top of other ice by prevailing winds. One year (I can't remember which right now) there was a feature that looked to most here like a goats head. It lasted quite a while, even while all the ice around it dissolved and even as it got pushed around by winds, iirc.

Don't feel like every post needs to be packed with insight and data, though those are always welcome! :)
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echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5413 on: August 09, 2019, 01:41:37 PM »
Welcome Leary....I lurk a lot and post a little...mostly nonsense, but I read and try to learn.

One thing that continues to bug me is peeps posting weather forecast 6-10 days out that almost never verify. They proclaim THE END OF ALL ICE!! I realize the need to look ahead, but try to caveat these posts. Remember anything out over 3 days is already not even 50% accurate and much less after 5.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5414 on: August 09, 2019, 01:44:02 PM »
At some point they will become more accurate. It is good to see when they don't work...

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5415 on: August 09, 2019, 01:56:20 PM »
At some point they will become more accurate.

O/T I know but 'how'?

We see the trop/strat boundary doing all kind of weird stuff these days that none of the models incorporates

Until we 'flip' and a new 'stable regime' emerges we really do not know enough of the changes to be accurate in our modelling?

Look at some recent 'Canes and their unexpected 'bombing' over 18 to 24 hr periods? Surely we know enough about 'Canes to forecast their behaviours?

Then the introduction of lightning over the Arctic? That isn't even supposed to be possible due to the shallow trop over the Arctic?

Trust HP forecast as they are slow evolving & slow decaying but cyclones out at day 6????

Rant over....
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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Coffee Drinker

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5416 on: August 09, 2019, 02:08:15 PM »
Would you mind briefly describing why we are fu**? I see those cold anomalies over north America? What does that mean for us?
We are double-f*cked because as the Arctic is collapsing, the cold is now increasingly becoming focused in the grain-growing regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The crop situation this year across much of the Midwest is now dire. Yields will be double-digit %s below normal.

If this repeats next year there will be major food shortages for much of the developing world, IMO, as well as SEVERE winter and spring cold outbreaks in the developed world, particularly in the areas that have consistently trended colder since 2012.

In terms of raw data comparisons (2019 vs the 1981-2010 mean), the Arctic is still glowingly positive, although the - numbers are reduced in scope a bit across the continents. Nevertheless, I think the shift since 2012 highlights a new normal(ish?) pattern we are now spiraling towards, and it is very very BAD.

Thanks for the explanation. Indeed scary stuff.

Grubbegrabben

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5417 on: August 09, 2019, 02:46:21 PM »
Sorry for off-topic but food supplies globally are at an all-time high. Read the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (released July 11). Why post a doomsday prediction for food supply when there are zero facts to back it up?

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5418 on: August 09, 2019, 03:15:05 PM »
Sorry for off-topic but food supplies globally are at an all-time high. Read the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (released July 11). Why post a doomsday prediction for food supply when there are zero facts to back it up?

Nothing about food supply should be posted here. There is a thread in Consequences that this is discussed in detail. Feel free to discuss there

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5419 on: August 09, 2019, 03:28:25 PM »
The NSIDC area and extent losses 8 Aug have dropped like a stone. I wonder what  AMSR2 data looks like.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5420 on: August 09, 2019, 03:35:27 PM »
I post 6 to 10 day forecasts when the models are indicating a large scale phenomenon such as a a change in the Arctic oscillation. I know that the models are unlikely to get the details right and will the ECMWF often overdevelops storms and ridges near the pole in those forecasts, but I find that the European model does pick up large scale features pretty well on the 5 to 10 day scale.

We have reached the point in the melting season where bottom melt dominates and heat in the ocean has more impact than insolation in the central Arctic. There is sufficient ice around the pole that we can now be certain that there will be no "blue ocean event" this year.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5421 on: August 09, 2019, 03:45:19 PM »
Thanks for the explanation. Indeed scary stuff.

FYI, Coffee Drinker. I would recommend taking everything coming from Bbr with a mountain of salt. He expressed an extreme lack of judgement in the past. For example, in his mind, the french revolution and 'leftism' is the root cause of climate change. According to him Canada and North America face glaciation any day now.
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Jontenoy

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5422 on: August 09, 2019, 04:00:57 PM »
In order of importance for ice coverage, I would suggest :
Volume (Amount of energy required to melt)
Area     ( Albedo)
Extent  ( ??? )
Volume is lowest at a July low. See https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin
I have no idea why extent is so important . After all, one could have all pixels with 16% of thin ice, giving 100% extent, 16% area and low volume

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5423 on: August 09, 2019, 04:01:59 PM »
I post 6 to 10 day forecasts when the models are indicating a large scale phenomenon such as a a change in the Arctic oscillation. I know that the models are unlikely to get the details right and will the ECMWF often overdevelops storms and ridges near the pole in those forecasts, but I find that the European model does pick up large scale features pretty well on the 5 to 10 day scale.
And you do well. That poster can whine...

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5424 on: August 09, 2019, 05:17:11 PM »

After all, one could have all pixels with 16% of thin ice, giving 100% extent, 16% area and low volume
But one doesn't.
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philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5425 on: August 09, 2019, 05:32:01 PM »
In order of importance for ice coverage, I would suggest :
Volume (Amount of energy required to melt)
Area     ( Albedo)
Extent  ( ??? )
Volume is lowest at a July low. See https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin
I have no idea why extent is so important . After all, one could have all pixels with 16% of thin ice, giving 100% extent, 16% area and low volume

One has to post very carefully here, one imperfect term/word and you gonna have difficult times/replies despite the message you want to convey is absolutely true and despite you say
"COULD" and don't say it is or will ;)

- All pixels is not probable and not the case, hence someone will jump on it

- All ice being thin is, similarly like all pixelsl 16%, not probable and not the case

On the other hand the relatively poor value of extent in summer compared to area and theoretically volume has been discussed and many if not most users would agree with you.

There are only 2 major caveats:

I.] Thickness, and therefore volume are difficult to measure, hence the value provided is not that accurate for now, I think we all hope for improvement.

II.] Extent is quite reliably measured and can be compared with previous years for decades back and after all, if we want to know where we (the ice) stand, we have to compare the best possible
numbers to get a best possible picture of the current state.

III.] There are seasons where extent is illustrating the situation quite well.

As to your intention to say that Volume is the most relevant value when it comes to energy needed to melt the remaining ice and that area is most relevant when it comes to Albedo, I thnk that's common sense.

The perfect thing is only perfect when it's available and/or feasible which at the moment applies best to extent, all parameters and situations considered.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 05:46:44 PM by philopek »

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5426 on: August 09, 2019, 05:51:05 PM »
In order of importance for ice coverage, I would suggest :
Volume (Amount of energy required to melt)
Area     ( Albedo)
Extent  ( ??? )
Volume is lowest at a July low. See https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin
I have no idea why extent is so important . After all, one could have all pixels with 16% of thin ice, giving 100% extent, 16% area and low volume
Volume is generally lowest towards the end of September, a few weeks later than the extent low.

Extent is the most commonly looked at metric simply because it's the most reliable and with the longest history.

Volume is important (it is after all a direct measure of how much ice there is), but the shape of the ice (extent and area) is quite important when considering a lot of different dynamics such as albedo, wave action, wind compaction/dispersion etc.
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sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5427 on: August 09, 2019, 06:26:10 PM »
2019 in a nutshell. 

GFS runs, among other premier weather models in use, have not overall been great at detecting upcoming blocking conditions.  From top to bottom you see 1 day, 5, 7, 10, then the *15*, then the 12. (Fig1 Blocking frequency in the GFS forecast using blocking index of Tibaldi and Molteni (1990))

the GFS long range has given us advanced warning of northern blocking patterns all year.  When GFS says 300+meter 500mb anomaly in the Arctic at hours +378 +384 you pay attention, it's been effective early warning all year long.  It's not better until within 10 days which we all look at on our phone weather apps.

I'm not sure why we have to keep apologizing for using effective forecasting tools.  Roughly 25% of the day 15 GFS has indicated catastrophic northern blocking when it was coming.  You ever tried detecting anything?  That's *good*.

August is going to be as tame as it gets.  I will note that this is the first time the polar cell has not been thoroughly ejected from the Arctic since May 1 and we're only just getting there.  I don't know what the hell to think about September but I'm thinking about it from a corn crop perspective.

(By the way, trade estimate polls are -20% off the USDA's latest WASDE, which is widely understood to be completely wrong on harvested acres, glad to continue this elsewhere)

October goes back to heat incursions to the Arctic as per trend and given the AO ... I don't know who expects the AO to pop positive significantly in the remainder of 2019 when its been in the dirt since February in the most complete & total polar cell malfunction ever recorded

...published multiple times by multiple top researchers and institutions like Met Office, US CLIVAR, Harvard, all pointing to the stratosphere, tied directly to the thickness & influence of Arctic Sea Ice.

~I~ think, The long feared structural shift in atmospheric dynamics is beginning.  Solar minimum & thin sea ice both model a -AO -NAO blocked northern hemisphere loaded across the date line.  2019 is the entry to a transition mode where chaos rules reduce predictability.  only 3-5 years of BAU is possible in Ag & life in general, unless the Arctic Ocean is cooled.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535

Fast atmospheric response to a sudden thinning of Arctic sea ice
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2629-7

Just published new insights via Jet Stream measurements:

Increased shear in the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream over the past four decades
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1465-z

I am not a scientist

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5428 on: August 09, 2019, 06:40:30 PM »
In addition to the nuances associated with the different measurements, it's also important to understand the differences in the various regions of the Arctic.

The shallow peripheral seas are a completely different animal than the deep Central Basin.

We've lost 2/3 of the Arctic ice volume in the last 40 years and that leads many to the erroneous conclusion that we'll lose the rest at a similar pace.

If we analyze the Central Basin as a separate entity (as we should), the numbers don't support the near-term BOE projections that most people here are forecasting.

Measurrments in the peripheral seas and measurements in the CAB are apples and oranges if you're attempting to project future minima.

Pyrefier

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5429 on: August 09, 2019, 07:00:44 PM »
Sorry for off-topic but food supplies globally are at an all-time high. Read the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (released July 11). Why post a doomsday prediction for food supply when there are zero facts to back it up?

Don't want to feed this off-topic conversation but I strongly encourage you to take a closer look at that document. The very same paper states

"Foreign 2019/20 wheat supplies are decreased 10.5 million tons primarily on lower production in several major exporting countries. The production declines are led by a 3.8-million-ton reduction for Russia due to extremely high temperatures and below-average precipitation in June during winter wheat grain fill."

Now, this is just cherry-picking, but there are many similar examples throughout the paper. You should also note, that the record large notion here "With global supplies declining more than projected use, world ending stocks are reduced 7.9 million tons to 286.5 million but remain record large." is misleading. We are supposed to be at record large due to the growing demand and it's still possible to offset the climate change related losses with the help of technological advancements in many sectors. But the trend and long term projections are obvious. There are multiple recent peer-reviewed papers out there talking about our near future outlook when it comes to global food production. 

Now, let's stay on topic, please...

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5430 on: August 09, 2019, 07:49:49 PM »
We've lost 2/3 of the Arctic ice volume in the last 40 years and that leads many to the erroneous conclusion that we'll lose the rest at a similar pace.

If we analyze the Central Basin as a separate entity (as we should), the numbers don't support the near-term BOE projections that most people here are forecasting.

You contradict yourself.
Why would you expect the Central Basin to continue behaving as it has when its' neighbors are nearly gone?

boneyfingers

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5431 on: August 09, 2019, 09:05:39 PM »
Rich,
While I agree that we may harbor erroneous conclusions about the pace of ice loss, it seems more reasonable to expect the pace to quicken.
If we agree to consider the CAB as a distinct entity, then I suggest the following metaphor: it is like a roof, and the seas are like the walls upon which it rests. Sure, roofs may be fundamentally different than walls, and may be stronger and harder to demolish. But if the walls are weakened, the roof collapses.
As the seas melt out, I expect to see surprising and unanticipated changes to currents, waves, thermo-haline dynamics, weather, and/or any of a whole host of other possible mechanisms. We are seeing these already. Of course, while it's possible that an unforeseen savior of the ice will emerge to save the day, it seems far more likely that looming surprises will be dire indeed.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5432 on: August 09, 2019, 09:10:21 PM »
You contradict yourself.
Why would you expect the Central Basin to continue behaving as it has when its' neighbors are nearly gone?

Because the "neighbors" basically disappear every year now.

What % of the ice volume at year end is in the CAB? 80-90%?

This year is a great example. The periphery is getting crushed, CAB area is higher than the 2010's average. For the most part, SST's are stalled where the water transitions from shallow to deep.

The $64K question is how do you get sustained heat to the pole w/o warm SST's? You need freak weather as in 2012. That can certainly happen, but we can't predict it. Freak winds can also do the trick, but also not predictable.

The first BOE could come 50 years from now. There's simply no conclusive evidence that we can extrapolate the past losses of the shallow Arctic to future losses in the deep Arctic. Two different animals.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5433 on: August 09, 2019, 09:21:06 PM »
You contradict yourself.
Why would you expect the Central Basin to continue behaving as it has when its' neighbors are nearly gone?

Because the "neighbors" basically disappear every year now.

What % of the ice volume at year end is in the CAB? 80-90%?

This year is a great example. The periphery is getting crushed, CAB area is higher than the 2010's average. For the most part, SST's are stalled where the water transitions from shallow to deep.

The $64K question is how do you get sustained heat to the pole w/o warm SST's? You need freak weather as in 2012. That can certainly happen, but we can't predict it. Freak winds can also do the trick, but also not predictable.

The first BOE could come 50 years from now. There's simply no conclusive evidence that we can extrapolate the past losses of the shallow Arctic to future losses in the deep Arctic. Two different animals.
Indeed. It’s common sense that the CAB gets a reduced share of the energy (no currents except the Atlantic side, retains higher albedo longer as it happened this May with that powerful Anticyclone and clear skies that did nothing over the NP, it’s protected by the melting peripheral seas that absorb most atmospheric heat, it starts off with thicker MYI)
Many years of warming before the conditions are ripe to melt out most of the CAB. This year we have seen however that unprecedented gap maintained for weeks, maybe a signal where the CAB will start to go sooner, though I am skeptic...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5434 on: August 09, 2019, 09:36:03 PM »
Dear Abby  (for those not in the know, she was for decades an advice columnists in the US) … Woops, wrong thread …  :-[
Hello everybody, I've decided to join this forum after many years of daily lurking and reading! :)
...
Mleary claims to have been reading our wisdom (and, uh, other postings) for "many years".  So why all the advice giving?  :o  I'll just guess he already has each of us pegged!  :P

And welcome, Mleary, to our varying degrees of dysfunction.   ;)

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5435 on: August 09, 2019, 11:46:26 PM »
A serious rainstorm is gonna hit the ice with hot rain in the coming hours, and that storm will probably turn into a low that's gonna stir up things in the beaufort sea.

Looking at the weather charts over the arctic with Nullschool is pretty exciting these days. A lot is happening in the arctic right now. I know you people are more educated than me, and so I just look at all this through the eyes of a common man. I'm so curious to see how this season will end. Will storms shake up things and extract a lot of heat from the arctic? Or will the heat be buried under the ice? If we don't have a record this year due to calm weather, I'm sure the record will be broken next year.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/08/13/0900Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-41.04,92.79,1890/loc=-152.572,73.341
« Last Edit: August 10, 2019, 12:44:18 AM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5436 on: August 10, 2019, 12:16:27 AM »
Would that be the West Russian Low moving to the NP?

Yes it looks like it is, and it's coming to die in the arctic. But not before doing some serious damage to the ice.

You can track it's path easily through time with Nullschool.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-41.04,92.79,945/loc=60.332,74.473
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5437 on: August 10, 2019, 12:25:44 AM »
You contradict yourself.
Why would you expect the Central Basin to continue behaving as it has when its' neighbors are nearly gone?

Because the "neighbors" basically disappear every year now.

What % of the ice volume at year end is in the CAB? 80-90%?

This year is a great example. The periphery is getting crushed, CAB area is higher than the 2010's average. For the most part, SST's are stalled where the water transitions from shallow to deep.

The $64K question is how do you get sustained heat to the pole w/o warm SST's? You need freak weather as in 2012. That can certainly happen, but we can't predict it. Freak winds can also do the trick, but also not predictable.

The first BOE could come 50 years from now. There's simply no conclusive evidence that we can extrapolate the past losses of the shallow Arctic to future losses in the deep Arctic. Two different animals.
It all sounds nice but not supported by facts:
The Beaufort, ESS, Laptev and Chukchi all trend toward earlier meltout, which does matter to the CAB.
In 2000-2003 CAB volume at minimum was around 8500 km3, while in 2012 it reached 3500 km3, and several years came in at around 4000 km3. With such a change in 10-15 years, what makes you think the rest will take 50 years?
If it takes freak 2012 weather to melt the CAB, how did 2016 match 2012 CAB area? Or even go lower according to NSIDC?
Why do the Laptev Bite and the Beaufort meltout occur early over deep waters, while the shallow ESS normally holds out longer?

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5438 on: August 10, 2019, 02:09:06 AM »
Sorry for off-topic

Don't want to feed this off-topic conversation

Then don't.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5439 on: August 10, 2019, 02:34:36 AM »
August 3-7.

2018.

Ice between the Laptev sea and the pole seems to be getting to a critical point. Cracks and holes are visible in every break in the clouds on Worldview.

Edit: Dispersion is still notable towards Beaufort, Barents Kara and Laptev, somewhat disguising the massive collapse in the ESS, and making the extent numbers hold up
« Last Edit: August 10, 2019, 03:31:08 AM by subgeometer »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5440 on: August 10, 2019, 03:24:17 AM »
2worldview images from9 August

The first shows fraying ice at 85-86N, north of the Laptev Sea. Similar ice can be seen thru the odd hole in cloud further north.

The second shows the immense Siberian smoke plume merging with (rain?) clouds before heading over Severbaya Zemlya and the ice edge

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5441 on: August 10, 2019, 04:50:14 AM »
Sark, Zach Labe's group (he's a grad student, not the prof that heads the group) has several recent papers including one by Zach. Ocean heat in the Barents sea, where ice used to be, strongly affects winters with westerly winds in the middle tropical stratosphere. However, this effect of upward wave propagation is very weak in the early fall. Therefore, there's a pretty good chance that we will see a shift to low pressure over the pole in September or October.

It works that way because westerly wave energy won't propagate upwards through easterly winds in a dome over the pole in the lower stratosphere so the upper stratosphere will cool as soon as insolation drops in September. Thus a strong polar vortex will begin to form in the upper stratosphere above the subsidence dome. That will work its way down as fall gets going.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5442 on: August 10, 2019, 05:37:50 AM »
I post 6 to 10 day forecasts when the models are indicating a large scale phenomenon such as a a change in the Arctic oscillation. I know that the models are unlikely to get the details right and will the ECMWF often overdevelops storms and ridges near the pole in those forecasts, but I find that the European model does pick up large scale features pretty well on the 5 to 10 day scale.

We have reached the point in the melting season where bottom melt dominates and heat in the ocean has more impact than insolation in the central Arctic. There is sufficient ice around the pole that we can now be certain that there will be no "blue ocean event" this year.

The heatwaves the models saw coming well out, since the Mackenzie in May. Even if they turn out wrongI think its worth posting the far off forecasts when something big is signalled.

A BOE is totally improbable from here, too much ice. Perhaps if conditions didn't ease off at times in July. But there is a lot of vulnerable ice on the Eurasian and Pacific sides, pretty much to the pole. There's a huge amount of rubble, vulnerable to bottom and side melt Then there's the gap, and thinning Lincoln Sea etc.The next week will see rapid advances in the Laptev region and the thinning ice north of there. It's going to start looking very ragged as all the FYI struggles to survive. And there is still plenty of time before the minimum for serious storms to wreak havoc, something the forecasts seemingly aren't so good at predicting

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5443 on: August 10, 2019, 06:02:35 AM »
In addition to the nuances associated with the different measurements, it's also important to understand the differences in the various regions of the Arctic.

The shallow peripheral seas are a completely different animal than the deep Central Basin.

We've lost 2/3 of the Arctic ice volume in the last 40 years and that leads many to the erroneous conclusion that we'll lose the rest at a similar pace.

If we analyze the Central Basin as a separate entity (as we should), the numbers don't support the near-term BOE projections that most people here are forecasting.

Measurrments in the peripheral seas and measurements in the CAB are apples and oranges if you're attempting to project future minima.


This I completely agree with.

However 2011 got really close. 

But I agree that this downward trajectory in the summer months isn't going to just come to and open ocean abruptly.

However we are getting close to having ideal conditions come together to cause the Arctic to almost melt out or melt out at least once and then it will probably recover backed up above a melting out event for a while.




We need the Arctic like Area North of 60 degrees do you warm up a lot more to wear spring snow cover on land is gone basically by mid-may.

And show cover on the ice starts to really melt around that time.  Right now snowfall lost any weight spring seems to have started to hit a wall.


My point is ice loss before the summer solstice it's probably like next to nothing North of 73-75 degrees.

Like look at the ESS it's been basically gone for like 2 weeks maybe 3.

But the swirls left and that gooey looking stuff on satellite still prevented the very very end and didn't allow the ess2 exploding with heat to then drive that heat into the central cab.

finally now be ESL started to warm up a little bit but it's pretty much over now.


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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5444 on: August 10, 2019, 06:08:49 AM »
August 5-9.

2018.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5445 on: August 10, 2019, 06:19:52 AM »
In addition to the nuances associated with the different measurements, it's also important to understand the differences in the various regions of the Arctic.

The shallow peripheral seas are a completely different animal than the deep Central Basin.

We've lost 2/3 of the Arctic ice volume in the last 40 years and that leads many to the erroneous conclusion that we'll lose the rest at a similar pace.

If we analyze the Central Basin as a separate entity (as we should), the numbers don't support the near-term BOE projections that most people here are forecasting.

Measurrments in the peripheral seas and measurements in the CAB are apples and oranges if you're attempting to project future minima.


This I completely agree with.

However 2011 got really close. 

But I agree that this downward trajectory in the summer months isn't going to just come to and open ocean abruptly.

However we are getting close to having ideal conditions come together to cause the Arctic to almost melt out or melt out at least once and then it will probably recover backed up above a melting out event for a while.




We need the Arctic like Area North of 60 degrees do you warm up a lot more to wear spring snow cover on land is gone basically by mid-may.

And show cover on the ice starts to really melt around that time.  Right now snowfall lost any weight spring seems to have started to hit a wall.


My point is ice loss before the summer solstice it's probably like next to nothing North of 73-75 degrees.

Like look at the ESS it's been basically gone for like 2 weeks maybe 3.

But the swirls left and that gooey looking stuff on satellite still prevented the very very end and didn't allow the ess2 exploding with heat to then drive that heat into the central cab.

finally now be ESL started to warm up a little bit but it's pretty much over now.

The melt season can be divided into sunny melt and stormy melt this summer. Apparently, the first half is strong sunny melt and with amount of heat accumulation in the ocean. Now we are turning into the second half melt season until late September. We will see the stormy effect on the ice.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5446 on: August 10, 2019, 07:16:57 AM »
The central core looks fairly solid

Total bs

Beaufort alone has well over 500k km2 of low concentration rubble: https://go.nasa.gov/33pk6tp

Laptev has another maybe 500k km2 of thin mush, and this is from almost 2 weeks ago. Zoom in and look at the floe sized (if you can find any floes...): https://go.nasa.gov/2OS1a3e

And north of ESS: https://go.nasa.gov/2OYHIlk

Can in no way be characterized as solid.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2019, 07:48:00 AM by petm »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5447 on: August 10, 2019, 07:33:25 AM »
Ice movement in the Beufort can be seen in the attached gif, comparing the 3rd of August (very clear skies) with the 9th.

The floe with the eye moves app. 50 km to the left, and all of the big floes stay more or less the same shape. But the intervening "rubble" seems to diminish considerably.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5448 on: August 10, 2019, 07:59:29 AM »
August 5-9.
<gif>

Looks like we're starting to see the effects of the incoming heat around Bolshevik Island.

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5449 on: August 10, 2019, 09:41:08 AM »
2worldview images from9 August

...The second shows the immense Siberian smoke plume... heading over Severbaya Zemlya and the ice edge

Now *that's* interesting. Nothing like sprinkling something dark over the ice to induce melt.