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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5550 on: August 12, 2019, 07:24:33 PM »
...2019 is the most persistently negative AO of any summer since 2019 that I have seen....

But if you could see in the future, you would see more....  hehehe...did you mean 1979, 2009, ??

mdoliner

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5551 on: August 12, 2019, 07:29:21 PM »


Insolation when the sun is straight overhead is 1370 W⋅m−2 .



Not sure your 1370 figure is correct.

I'll take your word for it. I just wanted to point out that a BOE in Sept is not going to suddenly heat up the planet, regardless of latent heat cushion being lost.

Happy bee

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5552 on: August 12, 2019, 08:15:44 PM »
Hello, I am lurking for several years now.  Besides this year exceptional melt, what strikes me most is something that didn't happened.  You can see on ptem 5 days trailing minimum that the CAA fast ice is no more; it's all fractured and moving.  Despite that fact, the well-known Garlic Press did not start even a little; all the CAA sea ice stays pretty much in place.  So, the huge pressure that formerly forced that ice through the CAA is no more.  What is this force? As you may know, the level of the Pacific waters are higher than those of the Arctic-Atlantic; there is a 0.5 - 1 meter difference. IMO, the pressure of the Garlic Press was the hot water coming from the Pacific that could not escape the Arctic because of the solid sea ice cap of the CAB.  It had to escape through the CAA as the easiest route.  This year is different; the solid CAB piece of ice is so fractured that the hot inflow manages to find a route through the CAB ice flows.  As a consequence, it melts a lot and the Garlic Press has no reason to press the CAA ice.  It also means that next years will be as bad as this one.  I never saw a solid pack of ice fractured and then become solid again year(s) later. 

There is only one solution to this if we want, as a species, to have time the positive feedback.  Dear Russian and Americans forum members, please try to convince your respective Presidents to build a dam across the Berring strait.  It could generate enormous quantities of clean electricity and it would help to save the world.  Call it the Esperanza dam.

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5553 on: August 12, 2019, 08:16:23 PM »
What about melt momentum?  what if there is melt momentum in the system after the latent energy cushion is lost?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5554 on: August 12, 2019, 08:31:14 PM »
The massive hot blocking high that the ECMWF 10 day forecast began to predict 5 days ago is still in the forecast moved a few hundred miles towards Siberia on the latest run. It looks like a minimum of another week of bad weather for the ice. The heat continues to pour in from central Asia.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5555 on: August 12, 2019, 08:37:17 PM »
While the asian side roasts, climate reanalyzer 2m average and 2m max temperatures for the next five days, interesting that it predicts negative average for most of the pacific half, and maxima that won’t become above zero along the ice edge, at no time, for five days.

Happy bee

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5556 on: August 12, 2019, 08:44:35 PM »
My condolences to Neven for his father loss some time ago.

I am not usually very talkative.  I've made my previous post because I had something significant to say - wether you agree or not.  I don't intend to log again to the forum soon.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5557 on: August 12, 2019, 08:45:19 PM »
That isn't the ice edge, it is open water, so that is once again NBD.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5558 on: August 12, 2019, 08:49:06 PM »
That isn't the ice edge, it is open water, so that is once again NBD.
Yes, that may be. Thanks for the correction
Forgot the minima.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5559 on: August 12, 2019, 09:10:19 PM »
GFS forecast cold temperatures over open water in recent days may make sense where there is some ice left in the water. Salty ice water is something between -1.6 and -1.8 depending on salinity. However, I'm suspicious of some of those GFS temperature forecasts over open water.

Overall, the European model indicates strong warm air advection and melting in the Laptev area and continuing retreat of the ice pack on the Siberian side over the next week. We should look out for a shift towards lower pressure in the central Arctic. It's about time that some of the lows in the polar seas on the Atlantic side head into the central Arctic. We'll see. Bothe the GFS and ECMWF hint that we might see that ten days out.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5560 on: August 12, 2019, 11:09:14 PM »
The Parry channel is blue and flowing on it's west side into the Arctic ocean.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5561 on: August 12, 2019, 11:16:26 PM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5562 on: August 12, 2019, 11:24:02 PM »
Sterks is right.

Lots of surface freezing this time of year for partial days.

Really messes with high frequency scans.

And btw I'm a super social liberal person
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5563 on: August 12, 2019, 11:28:44 PM »
@happy bee. Nice to see your posts. Keep on posting.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5564 on: August 12, 2019, 11:29:07 PM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

I love to see some more data on this do you have any.

Wikipedia says it averages about a meter year lost.

This year probably way abbve that
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5565 on: August 12, 2019, 11:29:41 PM »
I am not usually very talkative.  I've made my previous post because I had something significant to say - wether you agree or not.  I don't intend to log again to the forum soon.
Welcome to the forum anyway.
Damming the Bering Strait was discussed in the past, there is a thread just for that.
About the garlic press, I think the wind over the CAA was from the south this summer, holding back the usual movement. But I think there is still a lot of fast ice in the Parry Channel.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5566 on: August 13, 2019, 12:09:45 AM »
And btw I'm a super social liberal person
Me too, for the record, regardless of teaparty or trumpotty or wharever user smearing lies. I was hoping that to disclose this was not necessary, but I’ve been pretty unsupported, so I support myself.
End of the ot.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5567 on: August 13, 2019, 01:01:34 AM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

I love to see some more data on this do you have any.

Wikipedia says it averages about a meter year lost.

This year probably way abbve that

Here is a timelapse from 1984 - 2018 (Will be interesting to see when they add 2019/2020)

https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse#v=70.08059,-74.06429,6.626,latLng&t=0.03&ps=100&bt=19840101&et=20181231&startDwell=0&endDwell=0

Stephen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5568 on: August 13, 2019, 01:35:05 AM »
Hello, I am lurking for several years now.  Besides this year exceptional melt, what strikes me most is something that didn't happened.  You can see on ptem 5 days trailing minimum that the CAA fast ice is no more; it's all fractured and moving.  Despite that fact, the well-known Garlic Press did not start even a little; all the CAA sea ice stays pretty much in place.  So, the huge pressure that formerly forced that ice through the CAA is no more.  What is this force? As you may know, the level of the Pacific waters are higher than those of the Arctic-Atlantic; there is a 0.5 - 1 meter difference. IMO, the pressure of the Garlic Press was the hot water coming from the Pacific that could not escape the Arctic because of the solid sea ice cap of the CAB.  It had to escape through the CAA as the easiest route.  This year is different; the solid CAB piece of ice is so fractured that the hot inflow manages to find a route through the CAB ice flows.  As a consequence, it melts a lot and the Garlic Press has no reason to press the CAA ice.  It also means that next years will be as bad as this one.  I never saw a solid pack of ice fractured and then become solid again year(s) later. 

I cannot see how a floating ice pack could "dam" any of the ocean underneath.  I suppose as a current meets the ice pack it may divert sideways a little but surely it would simply flow underneath?

Quote
There is only one solution to this if we want, as a species, to have time the positive feedback.  Dear Russian and Americans forum members, please try to convince your respective Presidents to build a dam across the Berring strait.  It could generate enormous quantities of clean electricity and it would help to save the world.  Call it the Esperanza dam.

Way Off Topic Happy bee, I have responded to your idea in the Stupid questions thread.  Please don't be offended.  But that is the right place for ideas like that.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,143.msg221510.html
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5569 on: August 13, 2019, 01:42:09 AM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

A remnant of the last ice age. It will not survive to see the next.

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5570 on: August 13, 2019, 01:49:56 AM »
GFS forecast cold temperatures over open water in recent days may make sense where there is some ice left in the water. Salty ice water is something between -1.6 and -1.8 depending on salinity. However, I'm suspicious of some of those GFS temperature forecasts over open water.

Overall, the European model indicates strong warm air advection and melting in the Laptev area and continuing retreat of the ice pack on the Siberian side over the next week. We should look out for a shift towards lower pressure in the central Arctic. It's about time that some of the lows in the polar seas on the Atlantic side head into the central Arctic. We'll see. Bothe the GFS and ECMWF hint that we might see that ten days out.
The interesting element in the forecast is the winds that will be strong frequently. No quiet times. Sure it’s getting colder (Beaufort mostly) but also pretty warm in the ESS-Laptev-Kara, all things taken extent should continue dropping.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5571 on: August 13, 2019, 01:54:33 AM »
It moves around but the blue strip indicates freezing on the top of the ice

When I say freezing it's probably like getting up really good Frost.

Its not freezing that would stop ice loss yet.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5572 on: August 13, 2019, 02:54:22 AM »
Sorry to see Sterks is now listed as guest. Less meta bs is good, but it's also good to have different perspectives. Science thrives on constructive criticism and differences of perspective.

Those blue zones are real areas of freezing temperatures at the time the satellite made its measurements. If you follow the Bremen and uni Hamburg maps closely you will see a correlation between those blue zones on JAXA and high concentration areas on the German maps. Once the melt ponds have drained the ice surface tends to freeze up remaining water when the sun angle gets low and there aren't warm clouds overhead. Sterks and Friv have valid points.

Overall, the ice is still melting but the surface of the ice covered area is cooling as we move into mid-August. Those blue areas on JAXA are real below freezing regions.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5573 on: August 13, 2019, 02:56:42 AM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

A remnant of the last ice age. It will not survive to see the next.


Next ?

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5574 on: August 13, 2019, 03:06:17 AM »
If there was any doubt as to the strength of the low level WAA being driven over the basin from the Russian side atm:


oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5575 on: August 13, 2019, 03:11:18 AM »
Me too, for the record, regardless of teaparty or trumpotty or wharever user smearing lies. I was hoping that to disclose this was not necessary, but I’ve been pretty unsupported, so I support myself.
End of the ot.
I wish you didn't take the "drama step", which has become popular here recently, just because of the ad hominem attack of one idiot (pardon my French). I did report that post to the moderator, BTW, but I guess you needed more visible support.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5576 on: August 13, 2019, 03:22:10 AM »
Me too, for the record, regardless of teaparty or trumpotty or wharever user smearing lies. I was hoping that to disclose this was not necessary, but I’ve been pretty unsupported, so I support myself.
End of the ot.
I wish you didn't take the "drama step", which has become popular here recently, just because of the ad hominem attack of one idiot (pardon my French). I did report that post to the moderator, BTW, but I guess you needed more visible support.

That's not French its ancient Greek  ;D ;D

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5577 on: August 13, 2019, 03:28:29 AM »

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5578 on: August 13, 2019, 04:29:24 AM »

Those blue zones are real areas of freezing temperatures at the time the satellite made its measurements.

I’m not familiar with the map that Friv posted, and I don’t know where that data comes from.  But the blue areas seem consistent with what we have seen on worldview in bands 3-6-7 over the last few days.

I wish Sterks would not have quit, but his fight with TeaPotty was over a completely different area than the blue zones in that image. 

People need to read carefully, consider their arguments, and then present them in a respectful way. 

The battle between Sterks and TeaPotty on this issue was just silly!   I’m not sure they even would have disagreed with each other if they took the time to compare the data and think about what it meant- AND MOST IMPORTANTLY ITS LIMITATIONS. 

Too many people on here forget that no data set on the arctic is perfect.  Worldview is the best we have but it is only 2D and mostly covered in clouds. 

We all like to post our opinions and sometimes we get jumped on when others disagree.  That is the nature of the internet.  Let’s just each try to be a little more polite in our criticisms and a little more understanding in the limitations of the data. 

I’m tired of seeing people delete their accounts. 


petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5579 on: August 13, 2019, 05:53:54 AM »
Aug 6 - 12

5-day min v. original

Big drops today in marginal zone area of Chukchi and ESS sectors. Why? Prepping for collapse, artifact due to being cloud covered for many days before today, or what? Was there a weather event there?

Click
« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 05:59:28 AM by petm »

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5580 on: August 13, 2019, 07:20:13 AM »
The latest worldview. The ice of CAB is pretty "healthy". Absolutely not healthy! Can anyone pickout a region without rubbles, floes, crack, etc.? massacre begin!Sorry to post such a large picture.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 12:07:19 PM by peterlvmeng »

georged

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5581 on: August 13, 2019, 07:30:08 AM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

Google timelapse allows you to see the level of decrease in the Barnes Ice Cap over the last 25 years (just type it into the search bar). Small but visible decreases in extent and elevation. It's been reasonably stable, but decreases have increased recently.

https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse/

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5582 on: August 13, 2019, 11:19:31 AM »
The latest worldview. The ice of CAB is pretty "healthy". Can anyone pickout a region without rubbles, floes, crack, etc.? Sorry to post such a large picture.

I disagree, this is not healthy at all IMO, (subject to interpretation, no problem)

Just imagine the light blue outcome below and then add one or two real storms to the
menu and we shall be well below 3M km2

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5583 on: August 13, 2019, 11:40:59 AM »
On the flip side a few good storms would remove a lot of heat from the system very quick, which might help long term freezing.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5584 on: August 13, 2019, 11:50:09 AM »
Aug 6 - 12

5-day min v. original

Big drops today in marginal zone area of Chukchi and ESS sectors. Why? Prepping for collapse, artifact due to being cloud covered for many days before today, or what? Was there a weather event there?

Click

That must be the stormy weather showing up, funny. August is a battle between coldness ramping up and winds and waves battering the ice. Still many days until coldness dominates if the weather keeps this colorful, in my opinion.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5585 on: August 13, 2019, 12:27:51 PM »
Polarview sentinel1, north of SZ this morning. https://www.polarview.aq/arctic
Two images rather poorly stitched together

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5586 on: August 13, 2019, 12:40:59 PM »
The steep dive of 2012 at the start of August no longer is so ominous... 2019 came in about half way down the slop and we've been virtually neck and neck. 

If one thing this year shows so far is that 2012 was NOT a 1-in-a-100 year event.
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5587 on: August 13, 2019, 12:45:48 PM »
.. it may have been way back then (2012). As we change the climate all old odds need recalculating regularly .. probably less than 1 in 2 now .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5588 on: August 13, 2019, 01:56:25 PM »
The steep dive of 2012 at the start of August no longer is so ominous... 2019 came in about half way down the slop and we've been virtually neck and neck. 

If one thing this year shows so far is that 2012 was NOT a 1-in-a-100 year event.

Not necessarily.  Its just shows that due to the continuing forcing, what was 1-100 before is much more common now.

« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 02:41:32 PM by DrTskoul »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5589 on: August 13, 2019, 02:06:41 PM »
So, if a "1 in 100" becomes "much more common" in just 7 years, can we agree that curve fitting and modeling based on a static climate (or perhaps some guess at the rate of change) is problematic, to say the least?

Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5590 on: August 13, 2019, 02:28:54 PM »
So, if a "1 in 100" becomes "much more common" in just 7 years, can we agree that curve fitting and modeling based on a static climate (or perhaps some guess at the rate of change) is problematic, to say the least?

A "1 in 100" event is indicative of something that is truly random.  If something is truly random, then the curve is flat (i.e. no change over time).  If the data can be fitted to a particular curve, that is an indication that the outcome is no longer random, or in this case, that the climate is no longer static.

dnem

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5591 on: August 13, 2019, 02:44:52 PM »
I have no idea what you're trying to say. "1 in 100" is a probability that a random draw from a distribution will come up.  If we can agree that the conditions that came up in 2012 were "1 in 100" then, but are "much more common" now, we should also agree that fitting any curve to the decline of sea ice is a fool's errand, as the distribution from which "random" annual weather is being drawn is changing rapidly.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5592 on: August 13, 2019, 02:46:14 PM »
So, if a "1 in 100" becomes "much more common" in just 7 years, can we agree that curve fitting and modeling based on a static climate (or perhaps some guess at the rate of change) is problematic, to say the least?

A "1 in 100" event is indicative of something that is truly random.  If something is truly random, then the curve is flat (i.e. no change over time).  If the data can be fitted to a particular curve, that is an indication that the outcome is no longer random, or in this case, that the climate is no longer static.

Let's use the temperature as an example. At a particular location a probability distribution describes all possible outcomes for the temperature at a particular day. The probability distribution is the climate and the particular outcome is the weather. A shift to the center of mass of the distribution to higher temperatures will make the extreme events more likely, but still; all the events will be described by a probability distribution, albeit shifted, and will continue to be random drawn from that distribution ( autocorrelation and all)

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5593 on: August 13, 2019, 02:53:53 PM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

I love to see some more data on this do you have any.

Wikipedia says it averages about a meter year lost.

This year probably way abbve that

Here is a timelapse from 1984 - 2018 (Will be interesting to see when they add 2019/2020)

https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse#v=70.08059,-74.06429,6.626,latLng&t=0.03&ps=100&bt=19840101&et=20181231&startDwell=0&endDwell=0

Here you are:
Have a ice day!

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5594 on: August 13, 2019, 03:04:46 PM »
Quote
A "1 in 100" event is indicative of something that is truly random. 

Randomness is a function of lack of information of a physical system, not an inherent quality of a physical system.

When you say "truly random" what you are really saying is "I have no idea how to predict this event" or " I can find no pattern". That's all. What is random to you might be obvious to someone with the information you don't have.

That said giving up on knowing how a system works and studying the repetitions of the system is very useful.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5595 on: August 13, 2019, 03:22:28 PM »
On the flip side a few good storms would remove a lot of heat from the system very quick, which might help long term freezing.

That's a way how to see it but let's face it, a good freezing season will be in the middle of the range at best due to slow growth on lower latitudes that can't be avoided at current SSTs and AirTemps.

Then I would be surprised if we would ever see a late melting start again, perhaps regional but not across the board.

Well, surprises are always lurking, exiting times to witness, would be fun if it were not so sad.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5596 on: August 13, 2019, 03:37:06 PM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

I love to see some more data on this do you have any.

Wikipedia says it averages about a meter year lost.

This year probably way abbve that

Here is a timelapse from 1984 - 2018 (Will be interesting to see when they add 2019/2020)

https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse#v=70.08059,-74.06429,6.626,latLng&t=0.03&ps=100&bt=19840101&et=20181231&startDwell=0&endDwell=0

Here you are:
I think that counts as a fairly large "Whoops".
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5597 on: August 13, 2019, 03:53:29 PM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

A remnant of the last ice age. It will not survive to see the next.




Next ?


100,000 years from now
« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 04:05:40 PM by Shared Humanity »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5598 on: August 13, 2019, 04:50:29 PM »
the climate is no longer static

Yep, the probability distributions are moving.

« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 05:01:51 PM by petm »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5599 on: August 13, 2019, 04:53:59 PM »
Polarview sentinel1, north of SZ this morning. https://www.polarview.aq/arctic
Two images rather poorly stitched together

Looks solid. jk

2012 finally caught 2019 in the Charctic 5-day average extent.

Edit: Almost.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 02:15:11 AM by petm »