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pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5650 on: August 14, 2019, 08:01:13 PM »
I suspect it makes zero difference and the email itself no longer goes to an actual person, but I emailed the address for the Barrow Sea Ice Webcam stating that it has been down for almost 1/2 the month. Hopefully it gets repaired because I really enjoy looking at it.
pls!

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5651 on: August 14, 2019, 09:36:09 PM »
Looks like a GAC hit the markets today. DJIA melted nearly 3%.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5652 on: August 14, 2019, 09:55:09 PM »
Recent EC op run depicts a serious blow to parts of the Atlantic side as southerlies are entering. The melting is however quickly winding down but given the fairly weak state of the ice there I won't be surprised if we are going to see some decent drops over the next 10 days or so.

Also seems likely that some ice transport to the Beaufort will materialize if the forecast holds.

HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5653 on: August 14, 2019, 10:12:41 PM »
Looks like a GAC hit the markets today. DJIA melted nearly 3%.

I scurried over to the Glossary before I got that. :-[ Well played, if not OT.  :)

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5654 on: August 14, 2019, 10:18:01 PM »
Latest days in weather. A non-choppy GIF leading to big file size. M10 band. Click to play.
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AmbiValent

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5655 on: August 14, 2019, 10:21:15 PM »
Looks like a GAC hit the markets today. DJIA melted nearly 3%.

I scurried over to the Glossary before I got that. :-[ Well played, if not OT.  :)
I found "Diakonisches Jahr im Ausland" (for young Lutheran volunteers).
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5656 on: August 14, 2019, 10:24:50 PM »
Looks like a GAC hit the markets today. DJIA melted nearly 3%.
I scurried over to the Glossary before I got that. :-[ Well played, if not OT.  :)
I found "Diakonisches Jahr im Ausland" (for young Lutheran volunteers).
;D DJIA. OT very -- apologies.

maltose

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5657 on: August 14, 2019, 10:38:41 PM »
Back to the ice...we will know in a few days whether we will have a minimum extent of below 3.5 million km2 (JAXA) or even a new record (however unlikely). The Beaufort tongue should melt out and the NW passage should open. On the Atlantic side, the melting could go on until Oct 1 as some of it is lower latitude.  The Greenland sea and the Laptev bite are places to watch too.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5658 on: August 14, 2019, 10:44:12 PM »
SST's north of laptev are turning orange. That would be under the ice. Could this be a result of all that hot rain hitting this area? How does this get measured? By buoys?

Edit; The rain actually hit the ice more to the west of this area, so probably not because of the rain. Just hot temperatures.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 11:17:47 PM by Freegrass »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5659 on: August 14, 2019, 10:51:34 PM »
Those are measured by satellite (with interpolation).

Quote
Satellite observations

The observations of the sea surface temperature are based upon observations from up to 10 different satellites, measuring in Infrared and Microwave wavelengths. The observations are obtained from the Ocean and Sea Ice SAF project (www.osi-saf.org) and from Group on High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (www.ghrsst.org).
-- http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

The yellows inside the melt edge may be due to melt ponds.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5660 on: August 14, 2019, 11:10:49 PM »
Those are measured by satellite (with interpolation).
interpolation
noun
The insertion of something of a different nature into something else.

So people are having sex while they measure ocean temperatures with their satellites?  ;D ;D ;D

Quote
The yellows inside the melt edge may be due to melt ponds.

Could be, but the ice looks pretty much like Barney (rubble - Aussie joke) in that area, and the strong winds would have blown the water straight off the ice I assume...
https://go.nasa.gov/33ByVsQ
« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 11:41:08 PM by Freegrass »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5661 on: August 14, 2019, 11:22:58 PM »
True. I guess between the floes (/slush?) then?

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5662 on: August 14, 2019, 11:33:11 PM »
Nares Strait export may be starting again. This is yesterday vs. today.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5663 on: August 15, 2019, 12:03:47 AM »
True. I guess between the floes (/slush?) then?
That's what it looks like to me, which means a lot of melting still to come I presume...
The forecast predicts more heat to come to that area in the coming days.
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5664 on: August 15, 2019, 12:12:52 AM »
This is the ECMWF forecast for Sunday - anomalous warm masses of air enter the arctic big time, sort of inverted dipole, well, not really. Garlic press?
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5665 on: August 15, 2019, 12:29:08 AM »
Currently good view of ESS ice tongue for Aug 14.  Shows up as dramatically more solid than Aug 13 2012Aug 14 2012 hides the ESS region in clouds but shows large areas of gaping water in Laptev region where currently there is a high coverage of ice, although definitely looking thin and with many small holes.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5666 on: August 15, 2019, 12:39:15 AM »
  ... the same ECM run ends in winter .. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2019081412/ECH0-240.GIF?14-0 .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5667 on: August 15, 2019, 01:00:32 AM »
The yellows inside the melt edge may be due to melt ponds.

Sea Ice concentration is dropping like a rock where all that hot air and rain was.
Edit; Some of that drop is probably also due to clouds wet ice?
https://go.nasa.gov/33BIgAU

I like this overlay. That's the NSIDC ice map, right?
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 01:30:42 AM by Freegrass »
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting sea
« Reply #5668 on: August 15, 2019, 01:17:03 AM »
  ... the same ECM run ends in winter .. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2019081412/ECH0-240.GIF?14-0 .. b.c.
Ohhh yes. But I am keeping it to the next three or four days before models disagree.
About the “return to winter”, coincidentally I crossed with a Judah Cohen’s like over Tweeter that predicts a late return of a serious polar vortex. Would like to know the implication on the refreeze start, perhaps none...
Note: the image came this cropped, not mine :)
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 01:25:58 AM by sailor »
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Often Distant

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5669 on: August 15, 2019, 02:51:50 AM »
4 million km² extent lost in 40 days.
Since dropping below 10 million km², it took less than 50 days to reduce by 50%.
The coming 4 week period will be incredibly interesting.
The slow down is taking its time.
Short term extent losses can yet continue rather rapidly from near all directions encroaching upon thin FYI 80N.

http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_nsidc_max_min_plus_step_days.png
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 03:04:07 AM by Often Distant »

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5670 on: August 15, 2019, 03:04:59 AM »
How did 2012 compare with those metrics?

Often Distant

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5671 on: August 15, 2019, 03:34:10 AM »
Other than 2012 being a day or so ahead, 2019 is near identical.
49 days from 10m to 5m.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5672 on: August 15, 2019, 03:57:56 AM »
Some nasty surprises are starting to wink thru the cloud as heat keeps pouring in from Eurasia.

A worldview image of ice near Severnaya Zemlya, showing rapid retreat and melt in a spot where thick ice apparently was just recently.

The various extent and especially area graphs are all over the place, they don't seem equipped to handle a state where so much of the pack is in a state of melt, cascading into rubble as it disperses. There's very little 95% coverage on the maps

The forecasts don't let up. DEwpoints over the ice are close to the surface temp, at the spot indicated on the Windy screenshots dewpoint ranges from 0-2C for the next week with temps about a degree higher. Both GFS and EC show the heat continuing, and hint at the beginning of some weather action from the Barents and Atlantic. One big difference is that GFS appears to be modelling a lot of ghost ice in the ESS, temps in the southern part are much cooler than on the ECMWF. Adjacent regions in Chukotka are ~10 degrees different in the 2 models, freezing in GFS, ranging from 7-15 on EC.



This all as the basin should be cooling - 80N is due to go through 0C on the DMI graph in another day, but, surprise, surprise, temperatures have gone back above the green line and it looks like another week before we go through the freezing point of water in that region

There's not much to slow momentum anytme soon

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5673 on: August 15, 2019, 04:13:17 AM »
SST's north of laptev are turning orange. That would be under the ice. Could this be a result of all that hot rain hitting this area? How does this get measured? By buoys?

Edit; The rain actually hit the ice more to the west of this area, so probably not because of the rain. Just hot temperatures.

The ice is dspersed and melting there. Open water between the rubble could be observed by a microwave instrument, maybe.though it seems unlikely the SST could be above -1.5C with so much ice around, even if the water some metres beneath was considerably warmer.

I think its probably spurious, unlike ESS SSTs which have increased significantly over the past week since most of the ice melted, now showing lots of positive anomalies on the same DMI mapsSome of that must be warmth beneath the surface accumulated in June and July and now raising the surface temp once the ice is gone

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5674 on: August 15, 2019, 04:27:58 AM »
Some nasty surprises are starting to wink thru the cloud as heat keeps pouring in from Eurasia.

Indeed. A peek at today's Bremen, below. Can almost picture someone standing on the Siberian coast with a giant blowtorch. Creme brule? Isn't that supposed to be thick ice there?

« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 04:22:11 PM by petm »

Renerpho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5675 on: August 15, 2019, 04:38:21 AM »
<snip> Can almost picture someone standing on the Siberian coast with a giant blowtorch. Creme brule?<snip>

Too much smoke in the region to be a good Crème Brûlée. You're supposed to caramelize the sugar, not to burn it to ashes.

May I ask where I can get that ice concentration map? https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/ only has yesterday's version. Do you have a link to yours?

EDIT: Okay, I see the link is in your image, https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2019/aug/Arctic/asi-AMSR2-n6250-20190814-v5.4_nic.png - cheers!
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 04:43:38 AM by Renerpho »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5676 on: August 15, 2019, 04:38:33 AM »
SST's north of laptev are turning orange.
I think its probably spurious

I'm not so sure. I've been watching the SSTs most days, and I've seen this before often, it seems to me, preceding or during strong melting. E.g. The Chukchi did it just before a strong melt a month or so ago. There's some similar patterns in the Beaufort too. Possibly where the ice has been reduced to just foam, the melting is no longer sufficient to suppress rising temps? Not sure.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5677 on: August 15, 2019, 04:42:07 AM »
May I ask where I can get that ice concentration map?

Creme fumee?  :D

I get the maps early just by editing the date near the end of the URL. E.g. Go to https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/ , choose the options you want (e.g. NIC color), then click the map thumbnail. It will bring you to the full-sized map. From there, just edit the URL to today's date. The current day's map is turned sideways and has data gaps until the full map is available, which is around 11 pm EST.

(Or just bookmark any full sized map and edit the date after loading it.)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5678 on: August 15, 2019, 04:52:17 AM »
...it seems unlikely the SST could be above -1.5C with so much ice around, even if the water some metres beneath was considerably warmer.

Some of that must be warmth beneath the surface accumulated in June and July and now raising the surface temp once the ice is gone

Is it possible that the ice can't melt fast enough to keep the water temperature down? I know how crazy that sounds, but what else could it be? That temperature has been rising slowly for a few days now.

Edit: PETM seems to be thinking the same thing, that the ice can't keep up, so it looks like my ice melting lessons are over.  ;D ;D ;D


http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php
(Maybe someone can make a gif? I don't know how to do that yet)
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 04:59:52 AM by Freegrass »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5679 on: August 15, 2019, 04:57:18 AM »
(Maybe someone can make a gif? I don't know how to do that yet)

Download the set of images you want, then go here: https://ezgif.com/maker . It's literally "EZ".

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5680 on: August 15, 2019, 05:03:51 AM »
Indeed. A peek at today's Bremen, below. Can almost picture someone standing on the Siberian coast with a giant blowtorch. Creme brule? Isn't that supposed to be thick ice there?
The image is ok now (I can't say the same about the ice  ??? )-
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Renerpho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5681 on: August 15, 2019, 05:10:02 AM »
(Maybe someone can make a gif? I don't know how to do that yet)

Download the set of images you want, then go here: https://ezgif.com/maker . It's literally "EZ".

This may not be the right thread for it (feel free to suggest an appropriate place for this discussion), but since we are at creating GIF's:
I like to use http://jdownloader.org/ to download large sets of images with "predictable" URLs. It can also download every file/image in a directory, if that's what you need. Much quicker than doing it manually.
Once downloaded, you can upload to Ezgif, and optimize it to reduce file size.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5682 on: August 15, 2019, 05:18:03 AM »
(Maybe someone can make a gif? I don't know how to do that yet)

Download the set of images you want, then go here: https://ezgif.com/maker . It's literally "EZ".
Thanks PETM! EZ indeed...  :)
Here's my first GIF. It shows the high sea temperature north of Laptev, lasting for a few days where there's supposed to be ice keeping the temperature down.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 05:32:25 AM by Freegrass »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5683 on: August 15, 2019, 05:24:09 AM »
@Freegrass. Welcome. Nice GIF! :)

@ Renerpho. Cool tool. Didn't know about it.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5684 on: August 15, 2019, 05:44:48 AM »
Aug 8 - 14. 5-day min v original. Click.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5685 on: August 15, 2019, 05:53:39 AM »
A couple more tantalising cloudless images of the edge of the pack around 78-80N on Eurasian and Canadian sides, with their locations marked on today's Bremen extent  concentration map. The ice north of the Laptev is a strange brown, I don't know if this is an effect from smoke haze above, tkinness, or what. The area between the Laptev and Barents seas is likely to soon start looking equally ragged from melt, if not already

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5686 on: August 15, 2019, 06:05:04 AM »
Weather forecast for the next 4 days.
This is so cool... :D
Thanks PETM!
I ended it with the smiley face that's still in the forecast... ;)
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 06:45:14 AM by Freegrass »
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slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5687 on: August 15, 2019, 06:49:42 AM »
May I ask where I can get that ice concentration map?

I get today's map from here:
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

A bit later it gets posted to the archive, which also has the previous maps from this month:
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2019/aug/Arctic/


 (Edit the month and year to get the analogous archived maps from prior to this month.)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5688 on: August 15, 2019, 07:06:36 AM »
There's a good view for the first time in a long time on the ice that's left in the ESS. I'm absolutely gobsmacked to see how long that ice is lasting. I think I predicted a month ago that it would only last a few more days. Yet today, it's still there... Amazing! That was a good lesson!

https://go.nasa.gov/2OXr2ei
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 07:16:01 AM by Freegrass »
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wdmn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5689 on: August 15, 2019, 07:07:49 AM »
Weather forecast for the next 4 days.
This is so cool... :D
Thanks PETM!
I ended it with the smiley face that's still in the forecast... ;)

It looks like the southern part of the CAA will melt out, and the state of the Eurasian side of the ice + forecast suggests significant losses on the way.

How much of the northern CAA will hold out?

Will this wind finally drive the ice off of the Atlantic Islands where they've held on stubbornly all season? And will that result in any retreat of the ice along the Atlantic side where positive concentration anomalies are high?

Will the Beaufort be able to swallow all of the ice being pushed into its waters?

Any crystal ball owners out there?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5690 on: August 15, 2019, 07:45:14 AM »
Any crystal ball owners out there?
I own a globe with weather predictions, and it's predicting a 999 hPa low to nestle on the pole in 5 days from now. Will this Herman Cain low turn into the "GAC" everyone is waiting for? Only time will tell...

Edit: Actually... that low forming off the coast of Norway looks pretty nasty...
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 08:37:58 AM by Freegrass »
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binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5691 on: August 15, 2019, 08:02:47 AM »
There's a good view for the first time in a long time on the ice that's left in the ESS. I'm absolutely gobsmacked to see how long that ice is lasting. I think I predicted a month ago that it would only last a few more days. Yet today, it's still there... Amazing! That was a good lesson!

https://go.nasa.gov/2OXr2ei

I remember in 2016 we also had an, admittedly much larger, ice tongue stretching into the ESS. That year it didn't melt out, but this year ... well if it does, that might just add a century break or two. Or will it? Uni-bremen is not really showing this ice, so perhaps it's not being counted in the "above 15%" bracket?

Below are two days with relatively clear skies, 12 days apart. No doubt that the ice is melting fast. Click to animate.

Below is the latest Uni-Bremen false-color of the same area.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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mabarnes

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5692 on: August 15, 2019, 08:24:36 AM »
There's a good view for the first time in a long time on the ice that's left in the ESS. I'm absolutely gobsmacked to see how long that ice is lasting. I think I predicted a month ago that it would only last a few more days. Yet today, it's still there... Amazing! That was a good lesson!

https://go.nasa.gov/2OXr2ei

Same here, FG ... only thing I can think of is the high enthalpy of fusion of water, something I think of on the chairlifts every spring skiing trip, actually.  Same thought every time:  With I knew more about the energy sources and sinks....

(nota bene - that ain't me lol)

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5693 on: August 15, 2019, 09:15:37 AM »
There's a good view for the first time in a long time on the ice that's left in the ESS. I'm absolutely gobsmacked to see how long that ice is lasting. I think I predicted a month ago that it would only last a few more days. Yet today, it's still there... Amazing! That was a good lesson!

https://go.nasa.gov/2OXr2ei

It's always like this.

There is surely a plethora of reasons that this happens but we don't have the full picture to piece that together.


It might simply be the ESS refreezes upwards of 2.5-3M with lots of ridging.

Expecially with the CHUCHKI ice being pressed into the ESS which has no winter outlet.

But this definitely keeps the ESS from becoming a mega warm soup bowl in late July.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5694 on: August 15, 2019, 09:21:26 AM »
There's a good view for the first time in a long time on the ice that's left in the ESS. I'm absolutely gobsmacked to see how long that ice is lasting. I think I predicted a month ago that it would only last a few more days. Yet today, it's still there... Amazing! That was a good lesson!

https://go.nasa.gov/2OXr2ei

It's always like this.

There is surely a plethora of reasons that this happens but we don't have the full picture to piece that together.


It might simply be the ESS refreezes upwards of 2.5-3M with lots of ridging.

Expecially with the CHUCHKI ice being pressed into the ESS which has no winter outlet.

But this definitely keeps the ESS from becoming a mega warm soup bowl in late July.
To date it has kept the ESS from being a mega warm soup bowl, I would not be shocked if 2020 was the first year it occurs, I think we are going to see a refreeze worse than 16-17 due to the OHC. If extant heat and the autumnal pattern encourage +500MB blocking in the region, which I think will occur, we could see a record late refreeze of both regions, combined with a pathetic winter across those same areas due to the PV lodging in North America (another possibility I would consider a probability).

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5695 on: August 15, 2019, 09:23:13 AM »
Weather forecast for the next 4 days.
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I ended it with the smiley face that's still in the forecast... ;)

It looks like the southern part of the CAA will melt out, and the state of the Eurasian side of the ice + forecast suggests significant losses on the way.

How much of the northern CAA will hold out?

Will this wind finally drive the ice off of the Atlantic Islands where they've held on stubbornly all season? And will that result in any retreat of the ice along the Atlantic side where positive concentration anomalies are high?

Will the Beaufort be able to swallow all of the ice being pushed into its waters?

Any crystal ball owners out there?
We are now past the peak of insolation, and the remaining ice is for the most part above latitudes that will receive significant insolation between now as the equinox.

Heat blowing in from the continents will have a minimal effect, as it isn't accompanied by significant insolation or long-wave radiation.

All hinges now on bottom melt, and to a certain degree, on how much heat is pulled from depth by wind.

I think a 2nd place finish is pretty close to being "in the bag".  I'm doubtful that we will pass 2012 - *UNLESS* the melt season continues into late September, driven by bottom melt.

Unfortunately, that store of heat - what's already in the water - is an aspect of the Arctic we probably have the least information on.  We can only wait and see what transpires.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5696 on: August 15, 2019, 09:30:11 AM »
True. I guess between the floes (/slush?) then?
The new image from today allows a peak through the clouds, and it looks like the light blue may be correct...  :'(

https://go.nasa.gov/2PcGEuD
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BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5697 on: August 15, 2019, 10:18:23 AM »
All hinges now on bottom melt, and to a certain degree, on how much heat is pulled from depth by wind.

2019 has a lot of ocean heat "in the bank". With the winds that are forecast over the coming week, it will withdraw some of the heat from its savings account, and use it to melt the ice.

This will involve both northerlies pushing ice into warm waters (Beaufort, Fram), southerlies pushing warm water and warmish, humid air into the ice, and a bit of both at different times (Kara, Barents, Laptev, ESS). How much damage can that do at this late stage? Significant amounts of damage to volume, but how it will affect area and extent is harder to judge, and depends where the ice stops when the music (melt) stops.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5698 on: August 15, 2019, 10:31:51 AM »


Heat blowing in from the continents will have a minimal effect, as it isn't accompanied by significant insolation or long-wave radiation.

All hinges now on bottom melt, and to a certain degree, on how much heat is pulled from depth by wind.

I think a 2nd place finish is pretty close to being "in the bag".  I'm doubtful that we will pass 2012 - *UNLESS* the melt season continues into late September, driven by bottom melt.

Unfortunately, that store of heat - what's already in the water - is an aspect of the Arctic we probably have the least information on.  We can only wait and see what transpires.

The evidence is on worldview that this longlasting atmospheric infkux is adding extra oomph to bottom melt. The warmth comes with a high dewpoint, significant atmospheric moisture and wind( which is also moving the ice around and enhancing bottom melt. The longwave from clouds can take cm oiff even in midwinter. It all enhances and extends the momentum - aka bottom melt. Apart from enough ice melt, atmospheric cooling is about the only way to stop momentum

2016 is totally in the bag, its only 750K away on JAXA

Edit: JAXA is 750K behind 2019 minimum, not 720 , an average 37500 km2/day for the next 20 days to tie if minimum comes really early, as in 2016.We need a major slowdown right now and even then I can't see the minimum not going below 4 million km2. In the absence of major storms 2019 might bottom out a bit above 3.5 million, but I wouldnt bet my house on it
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 10:45:58 AM by subgeometer »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5699 on: August 15, 2019, 10:52:03 AM »
I found these graphs, and after 2012, the sea ice extent in the summer months has been relatively steady above trend. You'd expect at least one month to have an extreme, but I don't see it. Could bathymetry have something to do with this? Has a threshold been reached?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover_30y.uk.php
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 11:20:29 AM by Freegrass »
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